March 31, 2025 • 20 mins
When Anthony Albanese couldn't name the cash rate, or the unemployment rate on day one of his last campaign, it was a moment that could have lost him the election.
But, as The Age and Sydney Morning Herald’s associate editor Tony Wright says, he was up against Scott Morrison who was "on the nose" across the nation. And that was before Morrison spear-tackled a child at a soccer match.
Campaigns can win, and lose, an election and Wright has seen a few since his first campaign covering Bob Hawke in 1983.
Wright speaks to Jacqueline Maley in the latest episode of our election podcast, Inside Politics.
Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
S1 (00:02):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Monday, March 31st.
As you would know by now, an election date has
finally been called and we have a five week campaign
before voting day on May the 3rd. Here, from the
newsrooms of The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, we're
going to bring you our humble podcast twice a week
(00:25):
for the duration of the campaign. So today we're going
to bring you news of the latest polling, which is
very interesting indeed. And we will also have the lovely
Tony Wright talk us through the art of political campaigning
and the best and worst moments from campaign trails past.
First of all, let me welcome Jim Reid, the director
(00:45):
of the SMH and The Age's pollster resolve. Welcome to
the pod, Jim.
S2 (00:50):
Good to be back with you.
S1 (00:51):
The latest results of the RPM poll suggest that Albanese
has gained a bit of an upper hand. 42% of
voters now think that he will win, while only 34%
expected Dutton's victory. So what has changed? Exactly.
S2 (01:06):
Yeah, it's been a really big turnaround in our polling, which, uh,
our latest poll has used a larger than normal monthly
sample of over 3000 people. Um, so it's pretty accurate. Um,
it was looking like a minority government leaning towards the coalition.
But in the last five weeks that's turned back towards
labor somewhat. And most other polls are now showing the
same trend this month as well. So we have, you know,
(01:28):
quite a bit of confidence that that trend is real. Um,
that expectation you mentioned of who's going to win is,
is actually really important because it tells people, uh, it
tells us how many people are gauging the relative importance
of the parties, which isn't always reflected in, in votes
straight away. And it also tells us what people are
hearing from their social circle as well about who might win.
(01:50):
So it's kind of a an early proxy for for vote,
if you like, an early warning system. I think what's
changed is that people have stopped just judging Albanese on
the cost of living and the referendum, as they have
been for the last two years, on distraction and and
relative competence. And they've started comparing him to Dutton in
(02:11):
an election context. And in the in the last few weeks,
the government have looked focused while the opposition have been,
you know, defending themselves on on Dutton's past dealings, on
announcing and then debating and retracting policy and, and generally, uh,
you know, flapping around like stunned mullets in certain circumstances.
S1 (02:30):
Yeah, yeah. So the polls still show that labor is
very much neck and neck with the coalition in terms
of the two party preferred vote, which is just literally
sitting on 50 over 50. That's better than it was
for Albanese, for the for the labor government. But it
still puts us firmly in minority government territory, doesn't it?
S2 (02:47):
Yeah. That's right. Our poll is exactly right on 50
over 50. Um, our latest poll. And that result tells
us that the major parties are kind of starting at
the same starting line for, for the five week campaign ahead. Um,
so there's everything to play for if you like. But
it also shows us that momentum is with Labour. After
the first five weeks of what has turned out to
(03:07):
be an extended ten week campaign. Um, and I think the,
you know, the delay caused by Cyclone Alfred has actually
been very kind to, to labour in allowing them a
budget in that extra time reflection on Dutton. But what
I would emphasize to you, to, to your listeners here
is that it's really unpredictable right now because we have
that close result of 50 over 50. Um, the trend
(03:30):
is all over the place. We've got a third of
voters that are still uncommitted, and we have a huge
crossbench as well. So that makes the campaign really important.
It wasn't so important in recent state elections like WA,
like Queensland and in the territory in the Act. We
kind of knew the outcome with some certainty before the campaign,
(03:50):
but here the campaign really counts.
S1 (03:52):
So Albanese has also gained a considerable lead on Dutton
in the preferred PM stakes. I just wonder with this measure,
obviously it's not a bad thing if you're the preferred
Prime minister, but how does it play into or interact
with how people actually vote in their electorates? Like, is this,
you know, is this a particularly meaningful measure of who's
going to win the election?
S2 (04:11):
Oh, it really does count. We're not a presidential system
like the like like the US, for example. But people
do vote on the leaders and they use the leaders
names interchangeably with the parties. When we talk to people
in focus groups and interviews. So it is very, very important.
They they sort of personify the parties. It's interesting they
don't do that for minor parties often. They don't do
(04:34):
it for the Greens. They don't do it for the teals.
They talk about their local candidates. But in this case
we're seeing very strong movements on leadership. Albanese is now
back to preferred prime minister. Um, he also equals Dutton
on his, uh, performance for the first time in some months. Uh,
and labor also gained, you know, almost across the board
(04:54):
on things like communications delivery, having a strong team management
on a number of policy fronts, and that that tells us,
along with the trend starting before the budget, that this
isn't a budget bounce, it's actually a competence bounce. Um,
after the rate rise, the cyclone and and the budget
included in that.
S1 (05:12):
Okay. And strangely, though, Dutton is still considered the better
leader to deal with Donald Trump. Tell us about that
and whether you think it's an important measure.
S2 (05:21):
They do. They do. They do say Dutton is preferred
to deal with Trump. In fact, Dutton in the coalition
still hold a lead on a on a number of things.
The difference in the last poll is that they don't
lead on everything. They they share those leads with labor,
which is why we have 50 over 50. The Trump
lead is an interesting one because it's not necessarily positive.
The rest of our polling is now telling us that
(05:42):
Trump is is is pretty toxic. Um, he wasn't popular
in Australia anyway. Our politics tends to skew more to
the left or more more to the centre, depending on
your your your frame of reference. But at least there
is kind of an openness to see what what what
he was doing when he was first elected before he
was Inaugurated in the last few weeks, we now have 60%
of Australians saying Trump is bad for Australia, and in
(06:07):
fact he's considered more of a threat than Russia to Australia.
And our polling, which is which tells you a great deal.
But the metric being best able to deal with Trump
isn't necessarily the positive attribute it once was. You know,
that is. Does it mean he could be better on
dealing with tariffs and other things? Or does it mean
people believe that he would bring Trump esque policies here on,
(06:30):
you know, tariffs on cuts on not supporting Ukraine anymore,
for example. And that's a little bit up in the air.
A bit of a question mark.
S1 (06:38):
Yeah. Okay. Thank you so much for joining us Jim
I really appreciate it. We might have you back again
before the end of the campaign to to check in again.
S3 (06:46):
I'd love to. Thanks. Thanks very much.
S1 (06:54):
And now we're going to welcome our very own Tony Wright,
coming to us live from Melbourne. Tony, it is such
a pleasure to have you on.
S4 (07:02):
Thanks very much indeed, Jacqueline. Lovely to talk to you.
S1 (07:04):
Tony, our leaders hit the campaign trail over the weekend
and of all the things we know they're desperate to do,
the highest on that list is to avoid a campaign blunder.
Capital C, capital B, and yet we love the blunders
as voters or as viewers because they're entertaining and they're real.
They're actually moments of authenticity. I just wanted to get
(07:25):
you to give us a sort of historical perspective on campaigns.
First of all, because your first campaign that you covered
was in 1983, wasn't it?
S4 (07:33):
It was, yes, quite a while ago now.
S1 (07:36):
And that was Hawke.
S4 (07:37):
That was between Malcolm Fraser and Bob Hawke. Yeah, it
was when Bob Hawke arrived. And in fact, the greatest
blunder of that campaign was performed before the election actually
began by, um, Malcolm Fraser, who, uh, well, he was
caught with his pants down. Really? He, um, he went
(07:58):
off to the governor general to call an election. Thinking
he was being pretty smart because he'd heard a rumour
around the place that it was fairly imminent, that the
Labour Party wanted to get rid of Bill Hayden as
its leader and replace him with, um, Bob Hawke. And
so Malcolm Fraser thought, well, we'd better, better do something
(08:20):
before that happens. And they so they can't get Hawke
in and all the rest of it. So he went
out to see Sir Ninian Stephen, who was the governor
general at the time, and it took some time to
get all the things in place and signed and all
the rest of it. And by the time that Malcolm
Fraser came back to the Parliament to call the election, Bill,
(08:45):
Hayden had been forced to resign and Bob Hawke was leader. So, um,
Malcolm Fraser and the liberals were caught very short indeed.
And that showed right through the election, really, because Bob
Hawke was a campaigner that, uh, you wouldn't want to
come up against. Really. And at that time, of course, um,
(09:07):
Bob Hawke was, uh, riding high. He'd been he'd been
the ACTU chief. He'd been the white knight who fixed
up all sorts of, uh, union, uh, problems and, and
strikes and all the rest of it. And he had
that larrikin streak in him that voters turned out to love.
(09:28):
And Malcolm Fraser didn't.
S1 (09:30):
Yeah. I mean, that larrikin streak and his his popularity
and the comment, I suppose what you might call the
common touch is sort of well known now, but that
would have been the first time that you'd saw it
on display on such a large sort of platform. So
what did he do in that campaign that was so brilliant?
I mean, what was he like to watch up close?
S4 (09:48):
He had something of the common touch those days. Of course,
you had things like outdoor rallies and people could, you know,
fill a city square and and listen to a leader
up close and see them. One of the things that
Bob Hawke had that I've never seen any other leader, um, equal.
(10:10):
And that was his memory for names. There was a
period where he was walking through, um, a mall or
I think in Brisbane. And, um, there were a couple
of people, older people yelling out, oh, Bob, Bob, Bob!
And he kept walking. He got to the end. And
(10:31):
those around him, his minders, thought that they could feel
him vibrating and listening to his own memory. And he
turned around and came back and he said, oh, sorry, sorry.
I walked straight past you. Bev and Cole, um, lovely
to see you. He hadn't seen those people more than
(10:51):
once in his life, and it was about ten years previously.
And of course, everyone around them was astounded. They told
all their friends and relatives and so forth, and those
sort of things have a ripple effect. But Hawk just well,
we all know famously he he could get away with anything. Um, and, uh,
(11:13):
he had this thing of the everyman. It's quite impossible
to to put your finger right on it.
S1 (11:19):
Yeah. What of. I mean, you've covered campaigns since 1983.
I can't do the maths because I'm a journalist and
we're famously innumerate. But what are some of the best
and the worst moments that you've seen? You know, the
highlights and the low lights and a low light for
a politician might be a highlight for us.
S4 (11:36):
Well, I guess one of the most recent was the
last election when on the very first day of the campaign,
Anthony Albanese went out and couldn't tell anybody what the
reserve Bank, um, cash rate was. The interest rate.
S5 (11:54):
National unemployment rate at the moment is, uh. I think
it's 5.4. Sorry, I'm not sure what it is. Yeah.
S4 (12:05):
And then couldn't, uh, name the unemployment rate.
S5 (12:09):
We can do the old, uh, old Q&A stuff. Over
50 different, uh, over 50, 50 different figures.
S4 (12:16):
And a lot of people thought it was fatal. First day.
Couldn't remember the two most important, uh, figures, uh, about
the economy. And he wanted to be, uh, prime minister. Well,
he was very fortunate, of course, because he was up against, uh,
Scott Morrison, who by then was on the nose across
the nation and, uh, who then created one of the greatest, uh,
(12:40):
site blunders, I guess, of an election campaign when he, uh,
spear tackled a little kid at a soccer match and
torpedoed him into the ground. Um, this was at the
very time that that he's trying to, uh, shrug off
his reputation for being a bulldozer.
S1 (13:00):
Yeah. And we knew that they that they realized that
they'd made that Morrison had made a big blunder because
I think he tried to spin it in the next
few days and say that, you know, he's he's a bull.
He can be a bit of a bulldozer, but that
means he gets things done or something.
S4 (13:13):
You never want to try to spin these things. If
you've made a blunder, own up to it.
S1 (13:18):
What are the moments? I mean, have you ever sort of,
when you're watching a campaign, have you ever thought, well,
he's won it or she's just lost it when, you know,
really pivotal moments that have actually turned a campaign, in
your opinion?
S4 (13:32):
Well, I guess you could say that when Howard, um, was, uh,
launching his campaign quite late. Late in the campaign, by
the way, they tend to leave their official launches late
because they don't have to pay for it up till then.
We do. Um, he was giving his, uh, speech to
the faithful, and he came out with that deathless phrase.
S5 (13:55):
We will decide who comes to this country and the
circumstances in which they come.
S4 (14:01):
Well, if he hadn't won the election by then, he had,
I think. I think we all agreed as soon as
we heard that, because this was an election about national security,
it was about, um, boats and, and what to do about, uh,
asylum seekers and all the rest of it. And it,
it sort of created this, um, time of of fear,
(14:23):
I suppose, but getting the people on his side, we
will decide. That was a very big moment. That same election, um,
Kim Beazley really wasn't up to it. Um, I don't
think anyone could have been really the Tampa 911. All
those things happened that year. Um, just before the election. Really?
S1 (14:45):
Yeah. He really galvanized the nation with that, with that line,
didn't he? And he really defined, um, immigration policy and
national security policy for to generate, you know, the next
generation when he said that he did.
S4 (14:57):
Yeah. For good or for bad. And, um, then, of course,
it was years later. Mark Latham looming over John Howard
and crushing his hand in a handshake. And it just
made him look like a bully. And the election was over.
That was 2004. Really?
S1 (15:15):
Yeah. That was that was a really powerful moment, wasn't it?
Because Mark Latham obviously, um, thought that he would come
out the better from that little display where he gave
that very hearty, overly hearty handshake to, um, to John Howard.
And the cameras, of course, captured it all. But as
you say, he just came off looking like a bully
with possibly a fragile ego.
S4 (15:36):
I think John John Howard played it rather well for himself, too,
by not taking a backward step and actually moving in
so that this great big looming figure, um, looked even
more bullying over John Howard's relatively, uh, small frame.
S1 (15:54):
More diminutive frame in terms of the actual campaigns. I mean, we,
you know, it's only a few weeks and you think,
what does that really matter in the term of a government,
which is, you know, three years, but they can actually
turn elections, can't they? And, and, I mean, they can
actually turn people's opinions because it's when, you know, voters
really switch on and they actually size up one leader
(16:15):
against the other and one set of policies against the other.
What are some of the most powerful campaigns overall that
you've seen that have really changed opinion?
S4 (16:24):
Well, I think, um, Paul Keating, 1993, he looked as
if he was, you know, gone for all money that
John Hewson was going to win and so forth. And
he sized up this, um, great big policy that I
spoke about fightback that John Hewson came out with. And
he was relentless.
S5 (16:43):
I asked the Prime Minister, if you are so confident
about your view of fightback, why won't you call an
early election? The member for Higgins might. Because I want
you slowly. I want to do this well.
S4 (17:01):
Against all odds. Keating won. Keating didn't even think he
was going to win, I'm pretty sure. And certainly none
of the pollsters and none of the, uh, those of
us who were following. So that was a that was
a very powerful campaign when you look back at it.
S1 (17:16):
And okay, let's just end now with, um, Albanese v Dutton.
We've obviously seen a little bit of Albanese last election campaign,
as you mentioned before. He was very shaky to begin with.
He got a few key figures wrong, and he was
really given a gift, I suppose, because Scott Morrison was
so unpopular and was very well known. What do you
expect from Albanese during this campaign in terms of energy, enthusiasm, messaging?
(17:41):
And also what about Dutton, because he's very much an unknown.
S4 (17:45):
Well, that's the problem for Dutton. I suppose that he
is unknown. And people are going to have to, um,
to get to know him because, as you pointed out,
people really don't engage in Politics in huge numbers for
long periods, and then suddenly there's an election campaign and
people realise that they've got to actually vote at the
end of it. So they do become engaged and do
(18:08):
start looking at leaders. They've got a fair idea of
of Albanese. And while up to this point, uh, it's
probably best to say that, uh, a lot of people
aren't terribly impressed. But at the same time, he has
been very careful not to impress people with, uh, with
(18:29):
wild behaviour or otherwise. But I think we can go
to much about the leaders these days. Up to now, um,
it's generally been a horse race between two major parties.
Last election changed things a lot, and that is that
(18:50):
the major parties primary vote was appalling. And independence, teals
and others. Um, took over the slack, and it just
seems to me that this election will be less about
looking at leaders and more about looking at specific seats.
(19:11):
People have got a bit of an idea of them,
and I think that's why the the there was this
change in the polls because, um, suddenly they started looking at, uh,
Peter Dutton and started looking for policies and they weren't
finding very many. And he was also being described by those, uh,
with a sense of humor as a Teemu Trump, because
(19:34):
some of his policies getting rid of tens of thousands
of public servants, for starters, just didn't play.
S1 (19:44):
Yeah, yeah. And certainly Albanese's been strongly implying that, um,
that Dutton has been stealing his policies for Donald Trump,
if not saying it outright. Tony, thank you so much
for joining us. Um, we might have you back again
once the campaign gets underway. Proper and hopefully people do.
You know, there's some crazy stuff. There's some unpredictable stuff.
Maybe a small child will be tackled again. You know,
(20:05):
we can hope for the best.
S4 (20:07):
Thanks very much, Jacqueline. And there's no doubt that as
the campaign gets going, there'll be lots more to talk about.
S1 (20:13):
Indeed. See you later, Tony.
S4 (20:15):
Thank you.
S1 (20:18):
Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Julia Katzel.
Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Inside politics is a
production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. To
support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting the page or.
Subscribe and sign up for our Inside Politics newsletter to
(20:38):
receive a comprehensive summary of the week's most important news,
analysis and insights in your inbox every week. Links are
in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley, this is Inside politics.
Thank you for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Monday, March 31st.
As you would know by now, an election date has
finally been called and we have a five week campaign
before voting day on May the 3rd. Here, from the
newsrooms of The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, we're
going to bring you our humble podcast twice a week
(00:25):
for the duration of the campaign. So today we're going
to bring you news of the latest polling, which is
very interesting indeed. And we will also have the lovely
Tony Wright talk us through the art of political campaigning
and the best and worst moments from campaign trails past.
First of all, let me welcome Jim Reid, the director
(00:45):
of the SMH and The Age's pollster resolve. Welcome to
the pod, Jim.
S2 (00:50):
Good to be back with you.
S1 (00:51):
The latest results of the RPM poll suggest that Albanese
has gained a bit of an upper hand. 42% of
voters now think that he will win, while only 34%
expected Dutton's victory. So what has changed? Exactly.
S2 (01:06):
Yeah, it's been a really big turnaround in our polling, which, uh,
our latest poll has used a larger than normal monthly
sample of over 3000 people. Um, so it's pretty accurate. Um,
it was looking like a minority government leaning towards the coalition.
But in the last five weeks that's turned back towards
labor somewhat. And most other polls are now showing the
same trend this month as well. So we have, you know,
(01:28):
quite a bit of confidence that that trend is real. Um,
that expectation you mentioned of who's going to win is,
is actually really important because it tells people, uh, it
tells us how many people are gauging the relative importance
of the parties, which isn't always reflected in, in votes
straight away. And it also tells us what people are
hearing from their social circle as well about who might win.
(01:50):
So it's kind of a an early proxy for for vote,
if you like, an early warning system. I think what's
changed is that people have stopped just judging Albanese on
the cost of living and the referendum, as they have
been for the last two years, on distraction and and
relative competence. And they've started comparing him to Dutton in
(02:11):
an election context. And in the in the last few weeks,
the government have looked focused while the opposition have been,
you know, defending themselves on on Dutton's past dealings, on
announcing and then debating and retracting policy and, and generally, uh,
you know, flapping around like stunned mullets in certain circumstances.
S1 (02:30):
Yeah, yeah. So the polls still show that labor is
very much neck and neck with the coalition in terms
of the two party preferred vote, which is just literally
sitting on 50 over 50. That's better than it was
for Albanese, for the for the labor government. But it
still puts us firmly in minority government territory, doesn't it?
S2 (02:47):
Yeah. That's right. Our poll is exactly right on 50
over 50. Um, our latest poll. And that result tells
us that the major parties are kind of starting at
the same starting line for, for the five week campaign ahead. Um,
so there's everything to play for if you like. But
it also shows us that momentum is with Labour. After
the first five weeks of what has turned out to
(03:07):
be an extended ten week campaign. Um, and I think the,
you know, the delay caused by Cyclone Alfred has actually
been very kind to, to labour in allowing them a
budget in that extra time reflection on Dutton. But what
I would emphasize to you, to, to your listeners here
is that it's really unpredictable right now because we have
that close result of 50 over 50. Um, the trend
(03:30):
is all over the place. We've got a third of
voters that are still uncommitted, and we have a huge
crossbench as well. So that makes the campaign really important.
It wasn't so important in recent state elections like WA,
like Queensland and in the territory in the Act. We
kind of knew the outcome with some certainty before the campaign,
(03:50):
but here the campaign really counts.
S1 (03:52):
So Albanese has also gained a considerable lead on Dutton
in the preferred PM stakes. I just wonder with this measure,
obviously it's not a bad thing if you're the preferred
Prime minister, but how does it play into or interact
with how people actually vote in their electorates? Like, is this,
you know, is this a particularly meaningful measure of who's
going to win the election?
S2 (04:11):
Oh, it really does count. We're not a presidential system
like the like like the US, for example. But people
do vote on the leaders and they use the leaders
names interchangeably with the parties. When we talk to people
in focus groups and interviews. So it is very, very important.
They they sort of personify the parties. It's interesting they
don't do that for minor parties often. They don't do
(04:34):
it for the Greens. They don't do it for the teals.
They talk about their local candidates. But in this case
we're seeing very strong movements on leadership. Albanese is now
back to preferred prime minister. Um, he also equals Dutton
on his, uh, performance for the first time in some months. Uh,
and labor also gained, you know, almost across the board
(04:54):
on things like communications delivery, having a strong team management
on a number of policy fronts, and that that tells us,
along with the trend starting before the budget, that this
isn't a budget bounce, it's actually a competence bounce. Um,
after the rate rise, the cyclone and and the budget
included in that.
S1 (05:12):
Okay. And strangely, though, Dutton is still considered the better
leader to deal with Donald Trump. Tell us about that
and whether you think it's an important measure.
S2 (05:21):
They do. They do. They do say Dutton is preferred
to deal with Trump. In fact, Dutton in the coalition
still hold a lead on a on a number of things.
The difference in the last poll is that they don't
lead on everything. They they share those leads with labor,
which is why we have 50 over 50. The Trump
lead is an interesting one because it's not necessarily positive.
The rest of our polling is now telling us that
(05:42):
Trump is is is pretty toxic. Um, he wasn't popular
in Australia anyway. Our politics tends to skew more to
the left or more more to the centre, depending on
your your your frame of reference. But at least there
is kind of an openness to see what what what
he was doing when he was first elected before he
was Inaugurated in the last few weeks, we now have 60%
of Australians saying Trump is bad for Australia, and in
(06:07):
fact he's considered more of a threat than Russia to Australia.
And our polling, which is which tells you a great deal.
But the metric being best able to deal with Trump
isn't necessarily the positive attribute it once was. You know,
that is. Does it mean he could be better on
dealing with tariffs and other things? Or does it mean
people believe that he would bring Trump esque policies here on,
(06:30):
you know, tariffs on cuts on not supporting Ukraine anymore,
for example. And that's a little bit up in the air.
A bit of a question mark.
S1 (06:38):
Yeah. Okay. Thank you so much for joining us Jim
I really appreciate it. We might have you back again
before the end of the campaign to to check in again.
S3 (06:46):
I'd love to. Thanks. Thanks very much.
S1 (06:54):
And now we're going to welcome our very own Tony Wright,
coming to us live from Melbourne. Tony, it is such
a pleasure to have you on.
S4 (07:02):
Thanks very much indeed, Jacqueline. Lovely to talk to you.
S1 (07:04):
Tony, our leaders hit the campaign trail over the weekend
and of all the things we know they're desperate to do,
the highest on that list is to avoid a campaign blunder.
Capital C, capital B, and yet we love the blunders
as voters or as viewers because they're entertaining and they're real.
They're actually moments of authenticity. I just wanted to get
(07:25):
you to give us a sort of historical perspective on campaigns.
First of all, because your first campaign that you covered
was in 1983, wasn't it?
S4 (07:33):
It was, yes, quite a while ago now.
S1 (07:36):
And that was Hawke.
S4 (07:37):
That was between Malcolm Fraser and Bob Hawke. Yeah, it
was when Bob Hawke arrived. And in fact, the greatest
blunder of that campaign was performed before the election actually
began by, um, Malcolm Fraser, who, uh, well, he was
caught with his pants down. Really? He, um, he went
(07:58):
off to the governor general to call an election. Thinking
he was being pretty smart because he'd heard a rumour
around the place that it was fairly imminent, that the
Labour Party wanted to get rid of Bill Hayden as
its leader and replace him with, um, Bob Hawke. And
so Malcolm Fraser thought, well, we'd better, better do something
(08:20):
before that happens. And they so they can't get Hawke
in and all the rest of it. So he went
out to see Sir Ninian Stephen, who was the governor
general at the time, and it took some time to
get all the things in place and signed and all
the rest of it. And by the time that Malcolm
Fraser came back to the Parliament to call the election, Bill,
(08:45):
Hayden had been forced to resign and Bob Hawke was leader. So, um,
Malcolm Fraser and the liberals were caught very short indeed.
And that showed right through the election, really, because Bob
Hawke was a campaigner that, uh, you wouldn't want to
come up against. Really. And at that time, of course, um,
(09:07):
Bob Hawke was, uh, riding high. He'd been he'd been
the ACTU chief. He'd been the white knight who fixed
up all sorts of, uh, union, uh, problems and, and
strikes and all the rest of it. And he had
that larrikin streak in him that voters turned out to love.
(09:28):
And Malcolm Fraser didn't.
S1 (09:30):
Yeah. I mean, that larrikin streak and his his popularity
and the comment, I suppose what you might call the
common touch is sort of well known now, but that
would have been the first time that you'd saw it
on display on such a large sort of platform. So
what did he do in that campaign that was so brilliant?
I mean, what was he like to watch up close?
S4 (09:48):
He had something of the common touch those days. Of course,
you had things like outdoor rallies and people could, you know,
fill a city square and and listen to a leader
up close and see them. One of the things that
Bob Hawke had that I've never seen any other leader, um, equal.
(10:10):
And that was his memory for names. There was a
period where he was walking through, um, a mall or
I think in Brisbane. And, um, there were a couple
of people, older people yelling out, oh, Bob, Bob, Bob!
And he kept walking. He got to the end. And
(10:31):
those around him, his minders, thought that they could feel
him vibrating and listening to his own memory. And he
turned around and came back and he said, oh, sorry, sorry.
I walked straight past you. Bev and Cole, um, lovely
to see you. He hadn't seen those people more than
(10:51):
once in his life, and it was about ten years previously.
And of course, everyone around them was astounded. They told
all their friends and relatives and so forth, and those
sort of things have a ripple effect. But Hawk just well,
we all know famously he he could get away with anything. Um, and, uh,
(11:13):
he had this thing of the everyman. It's quite impossible
to to put your finger right on it.
S1 (11:19):
Yeah. What of. I mean, you've covered campaigns since 1983.
I can't do the maths because I'm a journalist and
we're famously innumerate. But what are some of the best
and the worst moments that you've seen? You know, the
highlights and the low lights and a low light for
a politician might be a highlight for us.
S4 (11:36):
Well, I guess one of the most recent was the
last election when on the very first day of the campaign,
Anthony Albanese went out and couldn't tell anybody what the
reserve Bank, um, cash rate was. The interest rate.
S5 (11:54):
National unemployment rate at the moment is, uh. I think
it's 5.4. Sorry, I'm not sure what it is. Yeah.
S4 (12:05):
And then couldn't, uh, name the unemployment rate.
S5 (12:09):
We can do the old, uh, old Q&A stuff. Over
50 different, uh, over 50, 50 different figures.
S4 (12:16):
And a lot of people thought it was fatal. First day.
Couldn't remember the two most important, uh, figures, uh, about
the economy. And he wanted to be, uh, prime minister. Well,
he was very fortunate, of course, because he was up against, uh,
Scott Morrison, who by then was on the nose across
the nation and, uh, who then created one of the greatest, uh,
(12:40):
site blunders, I guess, of an election campaign when he, uh,
spear tackled a little kid at a soccer match and
torpedoed him into the ground. Um, this was at the
very time that that he's trying to, uh, shrug off
his reputation for being a bulldozer.
S1 (13:00):
Yeah. And we knew that they that they realized that
they'd made that Morrison had made a big blunder because
I think he tried to spin it in the next
few days and say that, you know, he's he's a bull.
He can be a bit of a bulldozer, but that
means he gets things done or something.
S4 (13:13):
You never want to try to spin these things. If
you've made a blunder, own up to it.
S1 (13:18):
What are the moments? I mean, have you ever sort of,
when you're watching a campaign, have you ever thought, well,
he's won it or she's just lost it when, you know,
really pivotal moments that have actually turned a campaign, in
your opinion?
S4 (13:32):
Well, I guess you could say that when Howard, um, was, uh,
launching his campaign quite late. Late in the campaign, by
the way, they tend to leave their official launches late
because they don't have to pay for it up till then.
We do. Um, he was giving his, uh, speech to
the faithful, and he came out with that deathless phrase.
S5 (13:55):
We will decide who comes to this country and the
circumstances in which they come.
S4 (14:01):
Well, if he hadn't won the election by then, he had,
I think. I think we all agreed as soon as
we heard that, because this was an election about national security,
it was about, um, boats and, and what to do about, uh,
asylum seekers and all the rest of it. And it,
it sort of created this, um, time of of fear,
(14:23):
I suppose, but getting the people on his side, we
will decide. That was a very big moment. That same election, um,
Kim Beazley really wasn't up to it. Um, I don't
think anyone could have been really the Tampa 911. All
those things happened that year. Um, just before the election. Really?
S1 (14:45):
Yeah. He really galvanized the nation with that, with that line,
didn't he? And he really defined, um, immigration policy and
national security policy for to generate, you know, the next
generation when he said that he did.
S4 (14:57):
Yeah. For good or for bad. And, um, then, of course,
it was years later. Mark Latham looming over John Howard
and crushing his hand in a handshake. And it just
made him look like a bully. And the election was over.
That was 2004. Really?
S1 (15:15):
Yeah. That was that was a really powerful moment, wasn't it?
Because Mark Latham obviously, um, thought that he would come
out the better from that little display where he gave
that very hearty, overly hearty handshake to, um, to John Howard.
And the cameras, of course, captured it all. But as
you say, he just came off looking like a bully
with possibly a fragile ego.
S4 (15:36):
I think John John Howard played it rather well for himself, too,
by not taking a backward step and actually moving in
so that this great big looming figure, um, looked even
more bullying over John Howard's relatively, uh, small frame.
S1 (15:54):
More diminutive frame in terms of the actual campaigns. I mean, we,
you know, it's only a few weeks and you think,
what does that really matter in the term of a government,
which is, you know, three years, but they can actually
turn elections, can't they? And, and, I mean, they can
actually turn people's opinions because it's when, you know, voters
really switch on and they actually size up one leader
(16:15):
against the other and one set of policies against the other.
What are some of the most powerful campaigns overall that
you've seen that have really changed opinion?
S4 (16:24):
Well, I think, um, Paul Keating, 1993, he looked as
if he was, you know, gone for all money that
John Hewson was going to win and so forth. And
he sized up this, um, great big policy that I
spoke about fightback that John Hewson came out with. And
he was relentless.
S5 (16:43):
I asked the Prime Minister, if you are so confident
about your view of fightback, why won't you call an
early election? The member for Higgins might. Because I want
you slowly. I want to do this well.
S4 (17:01):
Against all odds. Keating won. Keating didn't even think he
was going to win, I'm pretty sure. And certainly none
of the pollsters and none of the, uh, those of
us who were following. So that was a that was
a very powerful campaign when you look back at it.
S1 (17:16):
And okay, let's just end now with, um, Albanese v Dutton.
We've obviously seen a little bit of Albanese last election campaign,
as you mentioned before. He was very shaky to begin with.
He got a few key figures wrong, and he was
really given a gift, I suppose, because Scott Morrison was
so unpopular and was very well known. What do you
expect from Albanese during this campaign in terms of energy, enthusiasm, messaging?
(17:41):
And also what about Dutton, because he's very much an unknown.
S4 (17:45):
Well, that's the problem for Dutton. I suppose that he
is unknown. And people are going to have to, um,
to get to know him because, as you pointed out,
people really don't engage in Politics in huge numbers for
long periods, and then suddenly there's an election campaign and
people realise that they've got to actually vote at the
end of it. So they do become engaged and do
(18:08):
start looking at leaders. They've got a fair idea of
of Albanese. And while up to this point, uh, it's
probably best to say that, uh, a lot of people
aren't terribly impressed. But at the same time, he has
been very careful not to impress people with, uh, with
(18:29):
wild behaviour or otherwise. But I think we can go
to much about the leaders these days. Up to now, um,
it's generally been a horse race between two major parties.
Last election changed things a lot, and that is that
(18:50):
the major parties primary vote was appalling. And independence, teals
and others. Um, took over the slack, and it just
seems to me that this election will be less about
looking at leaders and more about looking at specific seats.
(19:11):
People have got a bit of an idea of them,
and I think that's why the the there was this
change in the polls because, um, suddenly they started looking at, uh,
Peter Dutton and started looking for policies and they weren't
finding very many. And he was also being described by those, uh,
with a sense of humor as a Teemu Trump, because
(19:34):
some of his policies getting rid of tens of thousands
of public servants, for starters, just didn't play.
S1 (19:44):
Yeah, yeah. And certainly Albanese's been strongly implying that, um,
that Dutton has been stealing his policies for Donald Trump,
if not saying it outright. Tony, thank you so much
for joining us. Um, we might have you back again
once the campaign gets underway. Proper and hopefully people do.
You know, there's some crazy stuff. There's some unpredictable stuff.
Maybe a small child will be tackled again. You know,
(20:05):
we can hope for the best.
S4 (20:07):
Thanks very much, Jacqueline. And there's no doubt that as
the campaign gets going, there'll be lots more to talk about.
S1 (20:13):
Indeed. See you later, Tony.
S4 (20:15):
Thank you.
S1 (20:18):
Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Julia Katzel.
Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Inside politics is a
production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. To
support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting the page or.
Subscribe and sign up for our Inside Politics newsletter to
(20:38):
receive a comprehensive summary of the week's most important news,
analysis and insights in your inbox every week. Links are
in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley, this is Inside politics.
Thank you for listening.
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