June 25, 2025 • 23 mins
On paper it seems like a straightforward AFL round. But on this week's Real Footy tipping podcast, Andrew Wu and Peter Ryan have sage advice for tipsters searching for a sneaky upset. They ponder if Sydney are the league's sleeping giant, whether the Bulldogs will salute in Bont's 250th and whether the under-siege Blues can resurrect their season against Port Adelaide.
Support the show: https://subscribe.theage.com.au/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Real Footy podcast. Thanks for joining us
to Tip around sixteen. My name's Andrew Woo and I'm
joined as usual by Pete Ryan. Who was you reeling
after last week? You had a dog of a week tipping.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
No, No, it's just like Darren Goucher used to in
the long distance races, staying races. Just pull them up,
slam up at the turn and then go far up
a shocker.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Yeah, I only go only got three, but I didn't
give any ground to the leaders, of which you're one.
You're you and Glease. You tiped three last week? Callum
the media media rider was a raining office champion.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Myself. Sorry to talk over you about Geelong. I should
have tipped Carlden, North Melbourne. I had no faith in
and I didn't have the carriage. So I'm really kicking
myself about that. But apart from that, I'll be fine.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
You can't defend leads and tipping. No.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
You've got to go for it, dn't you. But I
don't know if I've done that this week. Anyways, It's
it's good enough to be in the lead to what
are we around sixteen? And then anything? No one remember
what happens after.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
This well well Callum office champion joining you and Gleason
the lead, followed by Jake and Mark McGowan, who's he's
picked off a few in the last six weeks. Mark's
going to Wimbledon, so if you enjoy your tennis read
he's riding in the next few weeks. I'm hoping that
(01:35):
distraction will pull him back, take the momentum out of
his season. Carol and Jimmy Bartel next eighty three. Jeez,
I'm further down. John Perry and Sam McClure eighty two,
eighty one, head of your embarrassing we're back. It's it's
very disappointing.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Five off the pace, which is not too bad, but
you know you're way down the leaderboard.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
I'm a long way back.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
What's happened?
Speaker 1 (02:02):
I don't know. Just those fifty to fifty games don't
fall in the place. I'm not backing myself. I'm paying
too much attention of the week before, and you've got
to start picking a few off now, and I'm going
to take a few risks play it. So I'll start
this week and let's see how it goes. Yes, nice
little drive by from you, Pete. Okay, first game of
(02:23):
the round, Port Adelaide against Carlton Adelaide Oval Thursday night footy.
The Blues surely they can't be as bad as last week.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Pete, Well, they could be, but even if they aren't,
even if they're better, they'll still lose to Port Adelaide
because their record in Adelaide. I know they've improved it
in recent times a little bit, but it's not it's
not good enough for them to win. I know they'll
come out you know, fire and brimstone and all sorts
of things and go for the coach. Yeah, and they
(02:51):
will win, probably win contested ball and they probably even
might even break even in clearance. But I think on
the outside they'll get exposed through lack of pace, as
we know, is an issue for them, and I'm not
sure that Charlie Kurno will be capable of kicking enough
goals given the form he's in, even though he'll be
(03:13):
you know, stung into action. I think they put out
a load. I have got enough key defenders to keep him quiet.
Zach Butter's Jason horn Francis. He didn't do much last week.
Horn Francis, He's been a bit quite lately. Won a
shoulder injury, not helping and off a hamstring as well.
Yeah kind of rose. They're just so much better than
(03:35):
Carlton's best.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Actually, that reminds me you tipped them last week because
you're lock?
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Yeah what say you on that? I say that we
forget about that. Come back to that double or nothing
this week.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
I'm tipping Carlton. Oh what what? Because people all the
attention is on Carlton after last week and lightly so
they were very poor against North Melbourne, but people forget
Port Adelaide are not that good.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
People remember that, but they think that good and either
a Carlton.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
And their percentage is what eighty five they've got. They've
got a proper bottom six side percentage. And one thing
I've noticed about Port Adelaid this year is when they've
got behind, they've given up pretty quickly. So if Carlton
can start well, which they generally do. I think they've
won now eleven out of fourteen first quarters. If they
(04:34):
can start well and then maybe kick on for a
little bit longer, Port mon't hang in there like other teams.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Well, they will against Carton because they have belief that
they can always cll back a lead. Agaye So the
only thing that these can't go on.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
I don't think Port Adelaide are any good, so Alia back
is an important in for them.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
But I don't what's Carton's record. It might be a
question without notice, but in Adelaide, I.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Don't know long term, but they what they won gather
around this year, one gatherund last year. I think they'd
beat Port in Adelaide last year, so they'll maybe three
out of four or three out of five.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
They won't gather around against West Coast. I was at
that gun. That was pathetic.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
It's a training run. But I don't think Porter are
any good.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
So you've said that twice and it's disrespectful, particularly when
you're tipping another team that's not that good.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
No, but I think they'll be stung after last week.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
They did make the prelim last year.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Yeah, that's one of the great mysteries in the world.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
But particular making in twenty three.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
That one you can understand. I actually got a roll
and played some good footing, but Port Adelaide from a
lot of the second half of last year weren't playing
good footy at all. But yeah, I think this is
one of those games where people are going to think, oh,
I can't so bad last week, so they'll over act
to that in their tips. And that's why I think
eighty five percent people will tip poured Oudelaide. But I
(06:05):
think it's a real fifty to fifty game.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
I agree with you, it's a sixty forty game. I'm
tipping Port Adelaide purely. Well, I think they're better, but
I think their home grand advantage gives them a definite
edge over the Blues.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Yeah, we'll see how that plays out. But and I
should also declare I'm being on the long way behind,
so I need to start playing. Yeah, five, but five
with nine rounds to go, you gotta start getting one
or two round So I'm tipping Carptain Adelaide. And is
that your Locke double or nothing? Okay? Absolutely, Friday Night
(06:41):
forty and this is I think this is a pretty
good game. I reckon this might be the game of
the round Sydney against the Western Bulldogs. The resurgence Swans
who unlocked your padlock last week against Port Adelaide, and
they're starting to play some okay forty the Swans players back, well,
it's the strongest team of the year. They had last week,
(07:03):
they had eight of their Grand Final team. Yep. And
they had the guts to drop Jake Lloyd as well,
who's been a loyal servant to them two hundred and
fifty games, multiple best Standing player. So when you're dropping
someone like Jake Lloyd, you must have some quality coming
back Lloyd.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
I quite like that they have got quality coming back.
Eryl Goldon, Tom Papley hard a second up. Calen Mills
obviously an outstanding player. Isaac Keeney. It allows him to.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Just give them a bit more freedom. They don't have
to do much.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Two players, yeah, good morning. Yeah, absolutely, it's no doubt
about that.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
More depth in the midfield. Joel and Marty was good
last week, even though he couldn't kick straight though. I
did notice Matthew Lloyd's analysis of his kicking. He was
just running to the wrong side like he was running
where he was kicking. It's that should be an easy.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Joel mister goal at the end of a Grand Final,
didn't he from the goal square that would have won
them a thac cap Grand four? Was at that game
see any Dragons? What do well? The Falcons were playing.
I was trying to talk to some recruiters. I was
trying too hard. Just went after that thought, what am
I doing with my life? Bulldogs they need a sculp
(08:18):
like Sydney in Sydney. I know that Sydney is sitting
at thirteenth or fourteenth, but they're obviously a top eight
quality team and the Bulldogs have shown their capacity to
beat teams below them on the ladder, but not a
lot above. And I'd almost rate this fifty to fifty
game that they can get to work. I'm not sure
Sydney well, I know they haven't got an answer for
Sam Darcy. If Aaron Norton can stand up, they'll break
(08:42):
even in the midfield with Marcus Bonton, Pelli and Ed
Richards and Libber that'll be tim English.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
That'll be a good one against Hani Warner, Robotom and
Mills in the middle there.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, I really like Odonahd and Lobb's been great obviously
half back. Oh it's a half back. I just think
they've got too many good players all around the ground
in form to drop this one.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
I'm going against you and the Swans feeling the strongest
team of the year.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
Yep, they're their strongest of the year. Not the strongest.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Yeah, their strongest team of the year and and you're well,
there's a little bit of desperation, a bit of a
tactical tip as well. But I never like it when
teams win by big margins and do it two weeks
in a row, because I reckon easy victories. They lull
you into a bit of a false sense of security
and they soften you up a little.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
That's I've actually done the data on that, or is it.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Yeah, well, sixty five percent of teams that win by
over sixty points tend to lose the next week.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Is that right?
Speaker 1 (09:43):
No, I just made that up.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
I was thinking that is unbelievable.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
But that's one of my theories. And I think that,
I mean, what they beat Saint Kilda and Richmond beat
them what they should. Suddenly they're coming up.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
If you're has any merit at all in terms of
statistically fair enough what you're saying, I mean a Geelong
classic example Thrashtats and weren't ready for Brisbane exactly.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
They're just playing at a tempo that's lower than they
than they will come up to this week. And I
think the Swan's deep down a good team. They've had
reasons why they haven't played all at the start of
the year, but a lot of those reasons are gone
now so and I think they're playing for their season.
I think the Swan's. Speaking of a few people at
(10:30):
the Swans this week, they're confident that they're back to
where close to where they were last year. So fair enough,
I'm going to tip the Swans.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Good good advice the Bulldogs, but I would agree with you.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
It's fifty to fifty and the home side factor as well, makes.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
A more confident one week side the other game. No
worries about the same side pathetic.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Yeah, well this is Sydney a bitter than portn as
I showed last week. We're online all the time, just
search age real footy on Facebook or Twitter. Saturday afternoon
footy Gold Coast against Melbourne. People first Stadium. You're going
to go up there and talk to a few recruits.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
If they're up there. Yeah, Gold Coast, I would think
just have to win this. There's just no question if
they're seriously going to make a run at the finals
after losing last week, after being five goals up, they
just have to beat Melbourne on their home deck.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Were you watching that game very closely and watching it
like me with a lot of pain.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
I was cursing a couple of things because I felt
confident when Gold Coasts, you know, sort of steadied, and then.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
I was getting shaky in that second quarter because I
felt like Jed Walter missed from ten meters out and.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
That at the Bulldogs, which mean game.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
It was one of the worst shots that go you'll
ever say, not because he missed close from close range,
but just his approach. It was horrible two steps and yeah,
as one of those head scratches, and if he kicked that,
they would have been eight goals to four at quarter time,
so which would have been it should have been harder
to run down. But I felt watching the second quarter
(12:18):
it felt like they were standing togi a little bit tired.
They were struggling to keep up really in terms of
their running.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
But it's wrong with them.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
I don't know. The Giants have got great running capacity
and a lot of those numbers the gold cost should
have won. They had more contested ball, more inside fifties
like twenty one and twenty four, but the Giants had
twenty five more tackle So reading that what you want,
but I think, yeah, that was disappointing by Gold Coast.
(12:48):
They should have. They needed to win that game. But overall,
it wasn't a terrible performance.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
No, it's not a terrible performance.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
And they're better than Melbourne.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
They're way better than Melbourne, not way better. They well,
if they're not better than Melbourne, this is going to
be an ugly end of the year for Gold Coast, Yeah,
because they really need to make finals.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Well, they're out of the eight right.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Now and it's hard to see them knocking anyone out.
Melbourne have got their own issues with just form and
where are they heading and all those sorts of things.
They played really well up on the Gold Coast last year.
That was one of their best wins for the year.
Jack Rowney went berserk from memory. But I don't think
they can repeat the dose this year.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
No. And the last time they played was at the MCG.
I covered this game. Gold Coast just absolutely smashed Melbourne. Yeah,
but you look at their center square combinations Anderson Miller
and Raul Versus Petrarca, Oliver Vonney. Who are you taking,
I'm taking a younger one, Yeah, the younger team. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
Absolutely. Do you think got to find two thousand for
the flipping the bird from the Oh?
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Did he did it. Yeah exactly, but I mean he
is a little bit unlucky, but good publicity for them.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Correct.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
It's kind of like I didn't know the speed camera
was there.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Yeah, exactly, exactly right.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
No gold Coast, yep, gold Coast for the twenty eight
points two goals. Next game, Saturday, Twilight game at Launceston.
People might be as cold this time Hawthorne against North Melbourne.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
They could be. It's freezing moment everywhere.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
I can't be as they were last time as Wondergree.
Hawthorne and the lad could be a twilight game as well,
So that will get the conspiracy theorists going again about
footy and Tasmania and the need for a roof for
that stadium.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
I'm not buying into that, but I am buying into Hawthorne. Look,
Clarkson will be desperate to beat Hawthorne, and North Melbourne
clearly are on the up.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Well, they have to be on the out that they've
been down for so long.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Yeah that's right, but they clearly put together five or
six weeks of really strong, solid, reasonable football, not always winning.
And Hawthorne, although they've kind of bounce back, they're still
in a bit of a you know, I'm uncertain about them.
It's good to win against Adelaide. That was a good win,
but costly win for my tipping. Yeah, but look I
(15:12):
think they should be too good for North Melbourne down there.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
I struggled to tip against Hawthorne in Tasmania.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Yeah, I agree. I don't think any people, I think
many will tip North Melbourne though, if you want some
reason to tip North Melbourne, when they played Carlton good
Friday got smashed, had a point to prove. Last time
they played Hawthorne lost by one hundred and twenty four points,
so maybe that might sting them into wanting to get
(15:40):
a bit of payback and try to engage a bit
of improvement.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
But while we're here, actually Immercarney tip the most tips
of the round last week.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
That's that's a great achievement. By five she tipped North Melbourne,
so her loyalty paid off last week.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
No, she's a good tips do I mean she's got
seventy three. But you know, obviously carrying the kangaroos wait
around a bit, but that was Yeah, that was worth
a shout out for Emma Liby as well or Libby
Libby's you know she only got four, so nothing special
about that. Emma actually be everyone.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
That's that was good by her. She did well. But
I don't think she'll get this one right because I
don't think North Melbourne will beat Hawthorne.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
No Hawthorn win.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Yeah, four or five goals, but I think it'll be competitive.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
You love this game because it's boring.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
I'll actually be making my way to Marvel Stadium for
the next game on Saturday night, Collingwood against West Coast,
which is probably another boring.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Oh shocking, but it'll be Yeah, it'll be a bit
of Collingwood chanting and all that sort of stuff. They
could make mincemeat of West Coast.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
Charlie West comes into the legally much hyped debut, isn't it.
It is a little one of our former colleagues, Damien Ratclue,
what's doing. Oh he's I think he's appointed himself into
the match committee at Collingwood. But he's I think he's
(17:09):
been talking about Charlie West for a long time.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Well, everyone who barks for Collingwood has been talking about
Charlie West for at least four or five weeks. Is good. Uh, Well,
he's got to make the next step, but he's certainly
showed great promise and in his first year he's playing
really good NFL football, which is all we can do.
Kick the winning goal last week, and therefore he comes
into that team which has lost the great Billy Frampton.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Is that for a few weeks he's played four.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Huge, huge out and also Bo McCreary. People on paper
wouldn't think that's the biggest. So those two are certainly
structurally important. But West Coast coming to Melbourne, they've been
pretty good the last few weeks. But I think with
the Collingwood in such good form and they look to
(17:57):
actually put them away, I'd.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
Say Collingwood eight goals so that it could, I wouldn't
be surprised if it's double. So one of the more
mysterious results in the last few years is West Coast,
a COVID ravaged West Coast beating Collingwood in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
Yeah, I was that that game. It's quite funny.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Actually, because you wouldn't have thought then that oh Colin
would end up playing in the prelim final.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
No, no, I mean a few people would have been making,
you know, questions around mccraye and where's his club heading
and all that sort of stuff, and it has little back.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Since yeah, exactly, yeah, Collingwood. We won't waste any more
time on that because no one in their right mind
will be keepping West Coast now. And just like in
this game Sunday afternoon, Richmond against Adelaide, I have very
little care factor for this game.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Oh were we doing something someday? Something organized?
Speaker 1 (18:48):
Nothing? Nothing organized. I'll probably have it on the background.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
Well, we have that game, we'll we have this game.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
It'll be and you'll have to write something interesting out
of this game, which will be a major challenge. Wow,
given that, give I mean most likely, nobody's expecting Richmond
to win. Most people think Richmond will lose by plenty.
So if they lose by plenty, what are you right about?
You can't really torch Richmond for playing poorly because that's
the expected result.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
I an't go in there to torch them anyways. Chase
your mindset. That's disappointing from you. I've had to watch
Richmond this is where the second week in a row,
and I wouldn't suggest that they're going They weren't fantastic
to watch. I will say that, no, Balta Shimman is
playing will tighten up a little bit.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
With back to back games.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
It will help him and Sam Lawler might be back
in the team, which also allow a bit more interest.
But Adelaide, as you say, should win fairly convincingly, and
they could really do some damage given their to all
forwards and their ability to score. So yeah, good experience
for Adelaide. They just need to come to the MCG,
(19:56):
get it done comprehensively, playing the right way, and then
move on to bigger and better things.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
Yeah, Adelaide play the way they should and Richmond have
a bad day. This could get to one hundred points.
But I am Richmond might have a bad day. No, No,
I think that they've been generally pretty honest, haven't they
this year. I'm tipping Adelaide seven Goalside. I can't make
that my lock, can I?
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Well, we're not allowed to make Richmond, but I don't
think anyone cares too much.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
To that lock. Well, unless my lock doesn't get broached.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
It's one of those This is I'm actually going to look.
I'm looking forward to this game now because I've seen
Adelaid live beyond gather Round, so they are a very
entertaining team to watch. Yeah, no doubt about that.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
I'm going to go out and the limb and make
calling with my lock.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
Yeah yeah, that's both. I like that.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
I just want to give the punter some certainty. Final
game of the round three minutle against sint killed off
the stadium. This is the first time. Well, the last
time they met was Round eight and it was one
of the worst games of the season.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Well, Russ Line and Justin Longs sometimes can coach in
a way that's a bit you know, it's not exactly ra'smetads,
is it. No, But it wasn't Ross's fault in this game, No,
it wasn't. I mean Sinkuda were really good against Collingwood
for a lot of that game. They just couldn't get
their nose in front. And Free Mantle have been much
better since they've started moving the ball a bit more,
(21:16):
with a bit more vigor. I think this would be
a lot harder to tip if it was in Melbourne,
because the Saints really got hold of them last time
they played. From memory, didn't they.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
It was they played a different style, didn't they that night?
Through extra numbers at the.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Contest, and they haven't looked back to the Dockers, and
I think they learned a lot from that game, which
is probably a low point of the year.
Speaker 1 (21:38):
Only lost once since then, that was against Collingwood. Again
they probably should have won. Well, they dominated a lot
of the players, just that Collingwood were a lot more efficient.
We had thirty four and fifties.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Thats true.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
The Dockers win, yeah, Dockers for me that I think
they win this one relatively comfortably.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
It's a pretty easy round.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
It's a boring round of footy. This is why they have.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
Had a boring period in football.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
The AFL is going to get rid of the buy
to the or just reduce the number of buy rounds.
I think they've been almost as many rounds this year
where there's been a buy as they haven't across the
first six down and that's two.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Games in Melbourne.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Yeah, it's just ridiculous, prolonging the suffering for people. Just
do it over two rounds, get it over and done with.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Do you suffer?
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Oh well, it just doesn't feel like it's footy station
games and seven game rounds. It's just we've why this year. Yeah,
but they're not going to fix this. They've had many
years to fix this.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
The best way to.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
No. I just have a proper footy season where you've
got nine game rounds, every team's playing, everyone can watch
their team play, and if you want to have a buy,
just do it over two weeks.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
I did it.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Remember when they used to play Collingwood and Sydney up
in Sydney and that would be the standalone game. Do
something like that. Just give Everyone'm gonna have a week off.
Go what's local footy or do something. But this is
ridiculous anyway, if you're listening, get rid of the bye. Okay,
that's all we got time for today. Thanks for joining us.
You can see the rest of the expert tips at
(23:17):
the Age dot com dot Au slash a f L.
Make sure to subscribe, rate and review wherever you get
your podcasts. If you'd like to get in touch with
us or send Pizze some tips on how to dress
real footy pod at Theage dot com dot Au, we'd
love to hear from you. Podcast will return on Monday.
Thanks for listening and may your team win
This is the Real Footy podcast. Thanks for joining us
to Tip around sixteen. My name's Andrew Woo and I'm
joined as usual by Pete Ryan. Who was you reeling
after last week? You had a dog of a week tipping.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
No, No, it's just like Darren Goucher used to in
the long distance races, staying races. Just pull them up,
slam up at the turn and then go far up
a shocker.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Yeah, I only go only got three, but I didn't
give any ground to the leaders, of which you're one.
You're you and Glease. You tiped three last week? Callum
the media media rider was a raining office champion.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Myself. Sorry to talk over you about Geelong. I should
have tipped Carlden, North Melbourne. I had no faith in
and I didn't have the carriage. So I'm really kicking
myself about that. But apart from that, I'll be fine.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
You can't defend leads and tipping. No.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
You've got to go for it, dn't you. But I
don't know if I've done that this week. Anyways, It's
it's good enough to be in the lead to what
are we around sixteen? And then anything? No one remember
what happens after.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
This well well Callum office champion joining you and Gleason
the lead, followed by Jake and Mark McGowan, who's he's
picked off a few in the last six weeks. Mark's
going to Wimbledon, so if you enjoy your tennis read
he's riding in the next few weeks. I'm hoping that
(01:35):
distraction will pull him back, take the momentum out of
his season. Carol and Jimmy Bartel next eighty three. Jeez,
I'm further down. John Perry and Sam McClure eighty two,
eighty one, head of your embarrassing we're back. It's it's
very disappointing.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Five off the pace, which is not too bad, but
you know you're way down the leaderboard.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
I'm a long way back.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
What's happened?
Speaker 1 (02:02):
I don't know. Just those fifty to fifty games don't
fall in the place. I'm not backing myself. I'm paying
too much attention of the week before, and you've got
to start picking a few off now, and I'm going
to take a few risks play it. So I'll start
this week and let's see how it goes. Yes, nice
little drive by from you, Pete. Okay, first game of
(02:23):
the round, Port Adelaide against Carlton Adelaide Oval Thursday night footy.
The Blues surely they can't be as bad as last week.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Pete, Well, they could be, but even if they aren't,
even if they're better, they'll still lose to Port Adelaide
because their record in Adelaide. I know they've improved it
in recent times a little bit, but it's not it's
not good enough for them to win. I know they'll
come out you know, fire and brimstone and all sorts
of things and go for the coach. Yeah, and they
(02:51):
will win, probably win contested ball and they probably even
might even break even in clearance. But I think on
the outside they'll get exposed through lack of pace, as
we know, is an issue for them, and I'm not
sure that Charlie Kurno will be capable of kicking enough
goals given the form he's in, even though he'll be
(03:13):
you know, stung into action. I think they put out
a load. I have got enough key defenders to keep him quiet.
Zach Butter's Jason horn Francis. He didn't do much last week.
Horn Francis, He's been a bit quite lately. Won a
shoulder injury, not helping and off a hamstring as well.
Yeah kind of rose. They're just so much better than
(03:35):
Carlton's best.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Actually, that reminds me you tipped them last week because
you're lock?
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Yeah what say you on that? I say that we
forget about that. Come back to that double or nothing
this week.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
I'm tipping Carlton. Oh what what? Because people all the
attention is on Carlton after last week and lightly so
they were very poor against North Melbourne, but people forget
Port Adelaide are not that good.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
People remember that, but they think that good and either
a Carlton.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
And their percentage is what eighty five they've got. They've
got a proper bottom six side percentage. And one thing
I've noticed about Port Adelaid this year is when they've
got behind, they've given up pretty quickly. So if Carlton
can start well, which they generally do. I think they've
won now eleven out of fourteen first quarters. If they
(04:34):
can start well and then maybe kick on for a
little bit longer, Port mon't hang in there like other teams.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Well, they will against Carton because they have belief that
they can always cll back a lead. Agaye So the
only thing that these can't go on.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
I don't think Port Adelaide are any good, so Alia back
is an important in for them.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
But I don't what's Carton's record. It might be a
question without notice, but in Adelaide, I.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Don't know long term, but they what they won gather
around this year, one gatherund last year. I think they'd
beat Port in Adelaide last year, so they'll maybe three
out of four or three out of five.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
They won't gather around against West Coast. I was at
that gun. That was pathetic.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
It's a training run. But I don't think Porter are
any good.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
So you've said that twice and it's disrespectful, particularly when
you're tipping another team that's not that good.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
No, but I think they'll be stung after last week.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
They did make the prelim last year.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Yeah, that's one of the great mysteries in the world.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
But particular making in twenty three.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
That one you can understand. I actually got a roll
and played some good footing, but Port Adelaide from a
lot of the second half of last year weren't playing
good footy at all. But yeah, I think this is
one of those games where people are going to think, oh,
I can't so bad last week, so they'll over act
to that in their tips. And that's why I think
eighty five percent people will tip poured Oudelaide. But I
(06:05):
think it's a real fifty to fifty game.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
I agree with you, it's a sixty forty game. I'm
tipping Port Adelaide purely. Well, I think they're better, but
I think their home grand advantage gives them a definite
edge over the Blues.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Yeah, we'll see how that plays out. But and I
should also declare I'm being on the long way behind,
so I need to start playing. Yeah, five, but five
with nine rounds to go, you gotta start getting one
or two round So I'm tipping Carptain Adelaide. And is
that your Locke double or nothing? Okay? Absolutely, Friday Night
(06:41):
forty and this is I think this is a pretty
good game. I reckon this might be the game of
the round Sydney against the Western Bulldogs. The resurgence Swans
who unlocked your padlock last week against Port Adelaide, and
they're starting to play some okay forty the Swans players back, well,
it's the strongest team of the year. They had last week,
(07:03):
they had eight of their Grand Final team. Yep. And
they had the guts to drop Jake Lloyd as well,
who's been a loyal servant to them two hundred and
fifty games, multiple best Standing player. So when you're dropping
someone like Jake Lloyd, you must have some quality coming
back Lloyd.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
I quite like that they have got quality coming back.
Eryl Goldon, Tom Papley hard a second up. Calen Mills
obviously an outstanding player. Isaac Keeney. It allows him to.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Just give them a bit more freedom. They don't have
to do much.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Two players, yeah, good morning. Yeah, absolutely, it's no doubt
about that.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
More depth in the midfield. Joel and Marty was good
last week, even though he couldn't kick straight though. I
did notice Matthew Lloyd's analysis of his kicking. He was
just running to the wrong side like he was running
where he was kicking. It's that should be an easy.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Joel mister goal at the end of a Grand Final,
didn't he from the goal square that would have won
them a thac cap Grand four? Was at that game
see any Dragons? What do well? The Falcons were playing.
I was trying to talk to some recruiters. I was
trying too hard. Just went after that thought, what am
I doing with my life? Bulldogs they need a sculp
(08:18):
like Sydney in Sydney. I know that Sydney is sitting
at thirteenth or fourteenth, but they're obviously a top eight
quality team and the Bulldogs have shown their capacity to
beat teams below them on the ladder, but not a
lot above. And I'd almost rate this fifty to fifty
game that they can get to work. I'm not sure
Sydney well, I know they haven't got an answer for
Sam Darcy. If Aaron Norton can stand up, they'll break
(08:42):
even in the midfield with Marcus Bonton, Pelli and Ed
Richards and Libber that'll be tim English.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
That'll be a good one against Hani Warner, Robotom and
Mills in the middle there.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, I really like Odonahd and Lobb's been great obviously
half back. Oh it's a half back. I just think
they've got too many good players all around the ground
in form to drop this one.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
I'm going against you and the Swans feeling the strongest
team of the year.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
Yep, they're their strongest of the year. Not the strongest.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Yeah, their strongest team of the year and and you're well,
there's a little bit of desperation, a bit of a
tactical tip as well. But I never like it when
teams win by big margins and do it two weeks
in a row, because I reckon easy victories. They lull
you into a bit of a false sense of security
and they soften you up a little.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
That's I've actually done the data on that, or is it.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Yeah, well, sixty five percent of teams that win by
over sixty points tend to lose the next week.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Is that right?
Speaker 1 (09:43):
No, I just made that up.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
I was thinking that is unbelievable.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
But that's one of my theories. And I think that,
I mean, what they beat Saint Kilda and Richmond beat
them what they should. Suddenly they're coming up.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
If you're has any merit at all in terms of
statistically fair enough what you're saying, I mean a Geelong
classic example Thrashtats and weren't ready for Brisbane exactly.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
They're just playing at a tempo that's lower than they
than they will come up to this week. And I
think the Swan's deep down a good team. They've had
reasons why they haven't played all at the start of
the year, but a lot of those reasons are gone
now so and I think they're playing for their season.
I think the Swan's. Speaking of a few people at
(10:30):
the Swans this week, they're confident that they're back to
where close to where they were last year. So fair enough,
I'm going to tip the Swans.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Good good advice the Bulldogs, but I would agree with you.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
It's fifty to fifty and the home side factor as well, makes.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
A more confident one week side the other game. No
worries about the same side pathetic.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Yeah, well this is Sydney a bitter than portn as
I showed last week. We're online all the time, just
search age real footy on Facebook or Twitter. Saturday afternoon
footy Gold Coast against Melbourne. People first Stadium. You're going
to go up there and talk to a few recruits.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
If they're up there. Yeah, Gold Coast, I would think
just have to win this. There's just no question if
they're seriously going to make a run at the finals
after losing last week, after being five goals up, they
just have to beat Melbourne on their home deck.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Were you watching that game very closely and watching it
like me with a lot of pain.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
I was cursing a couple of things because I felt
confident when Gold Coasts, you know, sort of steadied, and then.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
I was getting shaky in that second quarter because I
felt like Jed Walter missed from ten meters out and.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
That at the Bulldogs, which mean game.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
It was one of the worst shots that go you'll
ever say, not because he missed close from close range,
but just his approach. It was horrible two steps and yeah,
as one of those head scratches, and if he kicked that,
they would have been eight goals to four at quarter time,
so which would have been it should have been harder
to run down. But I felt watching the second quarter
(12:18):
it felt like they were standing togi a little bit tired.
They were struggling to keep up really in terms of
their running.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
But it's wrong with them.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
I don't know. The Giants have got great running capacity
and a lot of those numbers the gold cost should
have won. They had more contested ball, more inside fifties
like twenty one and twenty four, but the Giants had
twenty five more tackle So reading that what you want,
but I think, yeah, that was disappointing by Gold Coast.
(12:48):
They should have. They needed to win that game. But overall,
it wasn't a terrible performance.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
No, it's not a terrible performance.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
And they're better than Melbourne.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
They're way better than Melbourne, not way better. They well,
if they're not better than Melbourne, this is going to
be an ugly end of the year for Gold Coast, Yeah,
because they really need to make finals.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Well, they're out of the eight right.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Now and it's hard to see them knocking anyone out.
Melbourne have got their own issues with just form and
where are they heading and all those sorts of things.
They played really well up on the Gold Coast last year.
That was one of their best wins for the year.
Jack Rowney went berserk from memory. But I don't think
they can repeat the dose this year.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
No. And the last time they played was at the MCG.
I covered this game. Gold Coast just absolutely smashed Melbourne. Yeah,
but you look at their center square combinations Anderson Miller
and Raul Versus Petrarca, Oliver Vonney. Who are you taking,
I'm taking a younger one, Yeah, the younger team. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
Absolutely. Do you think got to find two thousand for
the flipping the bird from the Oh?
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Did he did it. Yeah exactly, but I mean he
is a little bit unlucky, but good publicity for them.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Correct.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
It's kind of like I didn't know the speed camera
was there.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Yeah, exactly, exactly right.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
No gold Coast, yep, gold Coast for the twenty eight
points two goals. Next game, Saturday, Twilight game at Launceston.
People might be as cold this time Hawthorne against North Melbourne.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
They could be. It's freezing moment everywhere.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
I can't be as they were last time as Wondergree.
Hawthorne and the lad could be a twilight game as well,
So that will get the conspiracy theorists going again about
footy and Tasmania and the need for a roof for
that stadium.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
I'm not buying into that, but I am buying into Hawthorne. Look,
Clarkson will be desperate to beat Hawthorne, and North Melbourne
clearly are on the up.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Well, they have to be on the out that they've
been down for so long.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Yeah that's right, but they clearly put together five or
six weeks of really strong, solid, reasonable football, not always winning.
And Hawthorne, although they've kind of bounce back, they're still
in a bit of a you know, I'm uncertain about them.
It's good to win against Adelaide. That was a good win,
but costly win for my tipping. Yeah, but look I
(15:12):
think they should be too good for North Melbourne down there.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
I struggled to tip against Hawthorne in Tasmania.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Yeah, I agree. I don't think any people, I think
many will tip North Melbourne though, if you want some
reason to tip North Melbourne, when they played Carlton good
Friday got smashed, had a point to prove. Last time
they played Hawthorne lost by one hundred and twenty four points,
so maybe that might sting them into wanting to get
(15:40):
a bit of payback and try to engage a bit
of improvement.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
But while we're here, actually Immercarney tip the most tips
of the round last week.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
That's that's a great achievement. By five she tipped North Melbourne,
so her loyalty paid off last week.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
No, she's a good tips do I mean she's got
seventy three. But you know, obviously carrying the kangaroos wait
around a bit, but that was Yeah, that was worth
a shout out for Emma Liby as well or Libby
Libby's you know she only got four, so nothing special
about that. Emma actually be everyone.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
That's that was good by her. She did well. But
I don't think she'll get this one right because I
don't think North Melbourne will beat Hawthorne.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
No Hawthorn win.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Yeah, four or five goals, but I think it'll be competitive.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
You love this game because it's boring.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
I'll actually be making my way to Marvel Stadium for
the next game on Saturday night, Collingwood against West Coast,
which is probably another boring.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Oh shocking, but it'll be Yeah, it'll be a bit
of Collingwood chanting and all that sort of stuff. They
could make mincemeat of West Coast.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
Charlie West comes into the legally much hyped debut, isn't it.
It is a little one of our former colleagues, Damien Ratclue,
what's doing. Oh he's I think he's appointed himself into
the match committee at Collingwood. But he's I think he's
(17:09):
been talking about Charlie West for a long time.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Well, everyone who barks for Collingwood has been talking about
Charlie West for at least four or five weeks. Is good. Uh, Well,
he's got to make the next step, but he's certainly
showed great promise and in his first year he's playing
really good NFL football, which is all we can do.
Kick the winning goal last week, and therefore he comes
into that team which has lost the great Billy Frampton.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Is that for a few weeks he's played four.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Huge, huge out and also Bo McCreary. People on paper
wouldn't think that's the biggest. So those two are certainly
structurally important. But West Coast coming to Melbourne, they've been
pretty good the last few weeks. But I think with
the Collingwood in such good form and they look to
(17:57):
actually put them away, I'd.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
Say Collingwood eight goals so that it could, I wouldn't
be surprised if it's double. So one of the more
mysterious results in the last few years is West Coast,
a COVID ravaged West Coast beating Collingwood in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
Yeah, I was that that game. It's quite funny.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Actually, because you wouldn't have thought then that oh Colin
would end up playing in the prelim final.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
No, no, I mean a few people would have been making,
you know, questions around mccraye and where's his club heading
and all that sort of stuff, and it has little back.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Since yeah, exactly, yeah, Collingwood. We won't waste any more
time on that because no one in their right mind
will be keepping West Coast now. And just like in
this game Sunday afternoon, Richmond against Adelaide, I have very
little care factor for this game.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Oh were we doing something someday? Something organized?
Speaker 1 (18:48):
Nothing? Nothing organized. I'll probably have it on the background.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
Well, we have that game, we'll we have this game.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
It'll be and you'll have to write something interesting out
of this game, which will be a major challenge. Wow,
given that, give I mean most likely, nobody's expecting Richmond
to win. Most people think Richmond will lose by plenty.
So if they lose by plenty, what are you right about?
You can't really torch Richmond for playing poorly because that's
the expected result.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
I an't go in there to torch them anyways. Chase
your mindset. That's disappointing from you. I've had to watch
Richmond this is where the second week in a row,
and I wouldn't suggest that they're going They weren't fantastic
to watch. I will say that, no, Balta Shimman is
playing will tighten up a little bit.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
With back to back games.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
It will help him and Sam Lawler might be back
in the team, which also allow a bit more interest.
But Adelaide, as you say, should win fairly convincingly, and
they could really do some damage given their to all
forwards and their ability to score. So yeah, good experience
for Adelaide. They just need to come to the MCG,
(19:56):
get it done comprehensively, playing the right way, and then
move on to bigger and better things.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
Yeah, Adelaide play the way they should and Richmond have
a bad day. This could get to one hundred points.
But I am Richmond might have a bad day. No, No,
I think that they've been generally pretty honest, haven't they
this year. I'm tipping Adelaide seven Goalside. I can't make
that my lock, can I?
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Well, we're not allowed to make Richmond, but I don't
think anyone cares too much.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
To that lock. Well, unless my lock doesn't get broached.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
It's one of those This is I'm actually going to look.
I'm looking forward to this game now because I've seen
Adelaid live beyond gather Round, so they are a very
entertaining team to watch. Yeah, no doubt about that.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
I'm going to go out and the limb and make
calling with my lock.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
Yeah yeah, that's both. I like that.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
I just want to give the punter some certainty. Final
game of the round three minutle against sint killed off
the stadium. This is the first time. Well, the last
time they met was Round eight and it was one
of the worst games of the season.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Well, Russ Line and Justin Longs sometimes can coach in
a way that's a bit you know, it's not exactly ra'smetads,
is it. No, But it wasn't Ross's fault in this game, No,
it wasn't. I mean Sinkuda were really good against Collingwood
for a lot of that game. They just couldn't get
their nose in front. And Free Mantle have been much
better since they've started moving the ball a bit more,
(21:16):
with a bit more vigor. I think this would be
a lot harder to tip if it was in Melbourne,
because the Saints really got hold of them last time
they played. From memory, didn't they.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
It was they played a different style, didn't they that night?
Through extra numbers at the.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Contest, and they haven't looked back to the Dockers, and
I think they learned a lot from that game, which
is probably a low point of the year.
Speaker 1 (21:38):
Only lost once since then, that was against Collingwood. Again
they probably should have won. Well, they dominated a lot
of the players, just that Collingwood were a lot more efficient.
We had thirty four and fifties.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Thats true.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
The Dockers win, yeah, Dockers for me that I think
they win this one relatively comfortably.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
It's a pretty easy round.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
It's a boring round of footy. This is why they have.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
Had a boring period in football.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
The AFL is going to get rid of the buy
to the or just reduce the number of buy rounds.
I think they've been almost as many rounds this year
where there's been a buy as they haven't across the
first six down and that's two.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Games in Melbourne.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Yeah, it's just ridiculous, prolonging the suffering for people. Just
do it over two rounds, get it over and done with.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Do you suffer?
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Oh well, it just doesn't feel like it's footy station
games and seven game rounds. It's just we've why this year. Yeah,
but they're not going to fix this. They've had many
years to fix this.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
The best way to.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
No. I just have a proper footy season where you've
got nine game rounds, every team's playing, everyone can watch
their team play, and if you want to have a buy,
just do it over two weeks.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
I did it.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Remember when they used to play Collingwood and Sydney up
in Sydney and that would be the standalone game. Do
something like that. Just give Everyone'm gonna have a week off.
Go what's local footy or do something. But this is
ridiculous anyway, if you're listening, get rid of the bye. Okay,
that's all we got time for today. Thanks for joining us.
You can see the rest of the expert tips at
(23:17):
the Age dot com dot Au slash a f L.
Make sure to subscribe, rate and review wherever you get
your podcasts. If you'd like to get in touch with
us or send Pizze some tips on how to dress
real footy pod at Theage dot com dot Au, we'd
love to hear from you. Podcast will return on Monday.
Thanks for listening and may your team win
Popular Podcasts
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.