In this back-to-school update, Sam McGee covers the current state of the U.S. economy and financial markets as of August 2025. He discusses the relationship between the economy and markets, recent trends in unemployment, inflation, real estate, and interest rates, and provides insights into what may be ahead for investors. The episode also touches on the Federal Reserve’s actions, market volatility, and the importance of diversification in financial planning. If you’re looking to catch up on economic news and market trends as the school year begins, this episode is for you!
00:00 – Introduction & Disclaimer
00:34 – Back to School: Timing and Parental Routines
01:02 – Economy vs. Financial Markets: Key Differences
01:29 – What is the Economy? (Lagging Indicator)
02:03 – Financial Markets as Leading Indicators
02:28 – Market Volatility and Irrationality in 2025
03:00 – S&P 500 Performance: Downturn and Rebound
03:28 – State of the Economy: Key Bullet Points
03:49 – U.S. Unemployment Data (July 2025)
04:09 – Comparing Unemployment: 2020 vs. 2025
04:36 – Government Stimulus and Unemployment Trends
05:07 – Current Unemployment Rate and Historical Context
05:28 – U.S. Consumer Price Index & Inflation Trends
05:50 – Fed Rate Hikes and Impact on Inflation
06:30 – CPI Drop and Current Inflation Rate
06:51 – Real Estate Market Overview
07:13 – Case Shiller Home Price Index Trends
07:25 – Home Prices, Interest Rates, and Inventory
07:44 – Effects of High Prices and Low Inventory
08:17 – Seller Behavior and Market Adjustments
08:37 – Mortgage Rates and Buyer/Seller Dynamics
08:51 – U.S. Company Earnings and Economic Resilience
09:27 – Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation
09:55 – Inflation Uptick and Fed’s Dilemma
10:53 – The Fed’s Balancing Act: Inflation vs. Economy
11:12 – Rate Cut Predictions and Market Expectations
11:34 – Financial Markets: Year-to-Date Performance
12:01 – S&P 500 and ETF Performance
12:36 – Growth vs. Value: Russell 1000 Indices
13:03 – Market Resilience Amid Geopolitical Risks
13:29 – Recap: Economic and Market Update
13:54 – Crestmont Private Wealth’s Approach & Contact Info
14:22 – Outro and Closing Remarks
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Original Air Date: August 9, 2025 at 8:30am as heard on Boerne Radio 103.9FM
Contact: www.crestmontpw.com
Alec Walker in Houston: 831-280-5288
Sam McGee in Boerne: 830-368-2898
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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