July 16, 2025 • 15 mins
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s six-day visit to China was a diplomatic reset that marks the full restoration of trade ties after years of friction. While the trip was framed around economics, the stakes were far broader, as tensions simmer over Taiwan, defense, and Australia’s balancing act between its biggest trading partner and its key security ally, the US.
This week on the Bloomberg Australia Podcast, host Rebecca Jones speaks with Beijing-based reporter James Mayger about how the visit played out inside China and what wasn’t said in the official statements. They also explore what China wants next from the relationship — and how much Canberra is actually willing to give.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
There's the Superpower Leaders meeting that Anthony Alberizi has not
yet been able to organize with American President Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
And now there's the one that he has been able
to organize with China's Shi Jinpin. Thank you, mister President.
This is my eighth visit to China, but my second
as Prime Minister, and I appreciate very much your hospitality.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
In both our relations with our biggest economic partner and
our biggest security partner. We're going to have to have
a higher tolerance for conflict because that we're going to
have problems with both of them.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Prime Minister Anthony Alberinizi just made his second trip in
as many years to China. But just how high are
the stakes for his government and what does this most
recent visit tell us about Australia's future. Welcome to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I'm Rebecca Jones. Now, on paper, Anthony
alban His trip to China was all about economics, expanding trade,
(01:04):
reviving tourism and shoring up Aussie jobs. But behind the
official photo ops, the backdrop was anything but simple, with
Donald Trump's escalating tariff threats and Beijing stants on Taiwan,
hardening Albo's meeting with President Jijiping carried weight that was
far beyond just the bilateral relationship. So this week on
(01:25):
the podcast, we ask what actually came out of this
trip and how is it all playing out in Beijing?
To help me answer, I am delighted to welcome James
Mega to the podcast. James is a reporter for Bloomberg
News based in out Beijing bureau. James, welcome, Thanks for
having me on. So alban Isy's China visit has been
(01:46):
leading most of the nightly news bulletins here in Australia,
but I'd be really interested in what the Chinese are
making of it all. You've been watching this visit pretty
closely this week. What's the reaction been like from the locals.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
The reaction here in the media has been pretty positive,
you s State media shkin Huai, which is a wire service,
had a commentary called the visit a positive step in
advancing the relationship, and The China Daily, which is the
main English language state media newspaper, said it was a
friendly gesture and not only important for biateral ties, but
(02:20):
also sending a message to the rest of the world.
Amid this global you know, changing global trade landscape. And
one thing I noted was that there was a lot
of appreciation of the fact that he was here for
a full six days and not just visiting Beijing and
you know, doing a photo up with President Shi or
the other leaders, but also going to Shanghai and also
to Chungdu, which very few foreign leaders go to, even
(02:42):
though it's a massive city in the center of China
with a population bigger than Australia. So that's an unusually
long trip from Australian PM to do overseas, and I
think there was an appreciation of that length from the
you know, the Chinese media.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Why was the trip so important to Elbow and you
know the reverse, How important was it for Hijipin.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
I think the trip is important for the Austraan government,
for the Prime Minister in a number of ways. First,
as you said, you know, the economic ties between Australia
and China are critical for the Australian economy. Trade. It's
trying to take one third of Australian exports. And when
the Prime Minister and then the government came into office
in twenty twenty two, fixing ties with China was clearly
(03:26):
the number one foreign policy priority. He came late twenty
twenty three with Foreign Minister Penny Wong as sort of
the final step in turning around the collapse in ties
that happened during the pandemic. And now finally at this
point all of the blocks that Chinese had it on
China has had on on Australian exports have been removed.
(03:47):
So basically things are back to how they were before
ties started to deteriorate, I guess in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen,
So that the first thing is it's just showing that
now things have returned to normal.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Now you're quite right, they did do a good job
of repairing that relationship, which you know, as you say,
was fractured during the pandemic, but wasn't in that great
of a state before then either was.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
It no Chinese relation or China Australia relations had been
deteriorating four years before the pandemic. You saw the foreign
interference laws brought in under Mounted Turnbull. There was increasing
unhappiness with Chinese actions and Chinese investment into certain sectors
in Australia, and so what had been pretty positive in
twenty fourteen twenty fifteen under Tony Abbott with his signing
(04:30):
of the FTA and Shijin being visiting Canberra and giving
a speech in Parliament. Really, by twenty twenty ties were
already pretty battered, and then the pandemic and Maurice Pain
and Scott Morrison's call for an investigation the origins of
COVID basically just dumped into the sea. And so it
really was a sustained effort by Pennywog, Priminus Albinasi and
(04:52):
the Chinese side as well, who also wanted to fix
ties that led to the where we are today, where
things are stable, there is no blockages to trade and
everyone is talking again. I think also for the PM,
though there's a personal aspect to this trip, the ALP
has a view that they are the better stewards of
relations with China than the Coalition, And in both of
(05:14):
his trips now he's been recreating images from GoF Whitlam's
trip in nineteen seventy one. So last time he was
here he went to the Echo Wall at the Temple
of Heaven, which is where Whitlam took a famous photograph
of listening to the wall. And then today he's up
again Albanize's up on the wall where Whitlam went in
ninety seventy one when he came into the opposition leader.
So you know, he really used it of HARKing back
(05:36):
to that Labor Party tradition of the Labor Party being
the better steward of relations with China. Whether you think
that's true or not, there is definitely that kind of
personal aspect of the trip for him.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Nineteen seventy one, Kracky, that's long before you and I
were born. And I'm guessing but Gough Whitlam didn't wear
a rabbito's cap when he was making his visit. Dinny James,
this optics, as you say, and from both sides, by
the sounds of it, has been very positive. How do
we think that Albaneze has really fared? Now we're getting
towards the end of the visit. Has there been any
(06:09):
tangible results or packs come out of this visit.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
I think the visit has gone off pretty much as
the government would have liked. There's been some announcements on trade,
on business, cooperation on tourism, but there's not really been
a big change in ties. From where I see it
here in Beijing, my impression is the Chinese government really
wants to make a big show of improving ties, to
show that they can have good relations with a US,
(06:35):
ally with the developed nation and they can move away
from the trade economic coercion that was happening in twenty
twenty and twenty twenty one. They want to build on
the positive momentum, which is something they keep saying, and
show they're having win win cooperation. But my feeling is
that the government Canberra is pretty happy where things are now.
They're still using the terms stabilizing ties. They haven't stabilized,
(06:58):
They're always in the process of stabilizing. And I don't
really feel there's a big appetite from the Prime Minister,
from the government generally for any kind of big gesture
or really deepening of ties, and you can kind of
see that in the announcement yesterday that Australia and China
are going to renew the FTA. When the Prime Minister
announced it yesdayt the press conference, he said it's in
(07:18):
the FTA that we have to review this after ten years,
so we're going to take a look at what the
deal says and what we can do. It wasn't particularly
effusive and it's kind of like it's in the contract,
we have to do it, and you can kind of
see that in the contrast with how EGO New Zealand
was to renew their at FTA with China a few
years ago when that reached ten years. The New Zealand
(07:38):
was really keen to upgrade the FTA to include services
and to do a lot more with China when they
had their negotiations. But right now, I didn't really see
any kind of enthusiasm from the Prime Minister when he
was speaking about it yesterday.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
And this meeting. Of course we're talking today it's Wednesday.
When this meeting happened on Tuesday, James, were there any
tension points between Albanesi and g.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
In the meetings yesterday? As far as we've seen from
the readouts and the description that the Prime Minister gave,
it seems to have been pretty pleasant. You know. The
public statements are all very amicable, with the Premier League
Chung praising the Prime Minister and saying, thanks to your
personal efforts and the joint efforts of both countries, we've
returned Australian relations to stability from the low point. But
(08:26):
I think a lot of that or so at least
some of that sort of bonhomie good relations was achieved
by avoiding difficult topics. The Prime Minister said that China
didn't raise the issue of Dao and Port, which the
government has promised to take back from its Chinese owner
and return to Australian hands. The Chinese Prime misisters said
the Chinese didn't relate raise the question of the Foreign
Investment Review Board, which has blocked a number of proposed
(08:49):
Chinese investments. And also there was no question about what
Australia would do to support the US if there's a
conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
It sort of feels like a Ristmas dinner table where
you avoid religion and politics and just keep everything nice.
When we come back, let's talk about the orcus shaped
elephant in the room. You're listening to the Bloomberg Australia podcast.
Welcome back. I'm Rebecca Jones and you're listening to the
(09:20):
Bloomberg Australia podcast. I'm talking to James Mega today, al
Beijing based correspondent for a deeper dive into Anthony Albinizi's
visit to China. So James, the Press pac sure had
a good go at albow asking about defense tensions between
Australia and China, but he did manage to bet awaiyh
those questions. Is it just a matter of time before
(09:42):
that's not going to be possible.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
There's true real areas of tension between Australia and China
on security matters. The first is how does the Chinese
in the Australian military deal with each other when they
come in contact with each other, whether that's in the
Tasman Sea or the East China Sea or the South
China Sea. And that is becoming increasingly an issue because
Australian military vessels and aircraft are going through these China
(10:04):
and South China see and the Chinese don't like that,
and they are trying to stop that. It's not just Australia,
it's the US, it's Japan at South Korea, it's our
allies Canada, for example. The Chinese don't like that, and
they're trying to stop that by intercepting those ships and
intercepting those planes in ways that everyone else thinks is unsafe,
but China continues to do so. You know, Albenizi did
(10:26):
raise those kind of unsafe intercepts and did ask the Chinese,
you know, to be safer in how they do those things.
He also said that he wanted more warning from the
Chinese when they do things like live fire drills and
the Tasman Sea. You know, perfectly legal action by the
Chinese government. It's international waters. And Albanese said at the
time that you know, what they were doing was legal,
(10:47):
but he wanted to be told that, you know, further
in advance, not to find out about it from a
quantus plane flying overhead sort of thing. He didn't say
if he actually got to shore on some huge in
ping that they would be better for next time. But
it's clear that you know, that's going to be an
issue going forward because the PLA, the Navy, the Air
Force are going out to the Western Pacific and will
(11:09):
be going out further around the world as they get more,
as they get more ships, as they do more around
the world. There just will be more instances and cases
where Australia and China or Japan or you know, our
allies butt up against Chinese to the Chinese military in
the future. So that's one area where there's possibility of
not conflict but tension. The second area which is much
more critical and much more risky is obviously the Taiwan Straight,
(11:33):
and the PM's trip got off to a pretty rocky
start as because as you landed, The Financial Times reported
that the US Defense Department had asked Australia in Japan
to make clear what they would do if there was
a conflict in the Taiwan Straight between Taiwan and the
US and China. The PM said he'd made clear to
Shujin Ping and I guess possibly to Lee Chung as well,
(11:54):
though it wasn't mentioned that Australia wants things to say
the same as they are now. We don't want conflict,
we don't want any and trying to change the way
things are in the Taiwan in Taiwan now, especially using
force to do so. But the question will be if
there is a conflict in Taiwan, what does Australia do?
What do other US allies like Japan or the Philippines
(12:15):
or South Korea do? And all of those countries are
US security allies that where China is their largest trading partner,
and so many countries in Asia are facing the same
question that Australia is facing now if it comes to
a conflict across the Taiwan straight if China tries to
invade Taiwan, how do you deal with that? How do
(12:35):
you keep relations with your security partner but also hopefully
keeping relations with your biggest trading partner. I mean, if
a conflict does happen, though, maybe many of those questions
will be moved, because as we're seen in Ukraine, a
massive war in your doorstep is not great for your
economy and will have many, many side effects. The question
(12:57):
of whether there is going to be a conflict or
not is not one that the Prime Minister Australia can decide. Obviously,
the Chinese leadership, the Taiwanese leadership, the US leadership are
really going to be the main parties making that decision.
But Australia can put sort of some pressure on all
of the parties to try and avoid that outcome. But
the Prime Minister of Australia, whoever that is at the
(13:19):
time when something like this possibly does happen, is going
to be faced with this question and it's not going
to go away. Even though Albanesi was able to sort
of avoid the question while he was here, the.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Visit is almost over. James Finally, how does our relationship
look like with China today compared to one week ago.
Speaker 4 (13:38):
I think the Australia China relationship is basically the same
as it was last week before Albanzi got here. The
trading relationship has got over all of the Chinese are
coercion and tariffs that was facing. Tourism is back to
pre pandemic levels, and Chinese are the second largest source
of inbound visitors to Australia. From what you're seeing or
(14:01):
from what I'm seeing here in Beijing, China wants to
do more with Australia. China wants to deepen that relationship,
strengthen that relationship. They want to invest more in the
Australian economy. And my impression is to the Australian government
is very much happy with things the way things are
right now. They don't want to do a whole lot
more with China, and they don't really want to be
seen to be doing a whole lot more with China,
(14:22):
so they're happy to be here that Albinizi is spending
a whole week here, which I think is being well
received by the Chinese. But I don't really feel that
there's a real desire for a massively improved relationship from
the Australian side, and so I think basically the status
quo will be trade is good, we're talking, we're having
(14:42):
regular meetings. You know, businesses are businesses are talking to
each other, and there'll be little things like we'll review
the FTA. You know, Australian apple farmers on the mainland
will be able to sell apples to China. Now these
kind of things. Maybe there'll be some actual movement on
green steel and decarbonization of the steel supply chain, if
bordisc you can get its way, But on the bigger
(15:04):
picture of how strong and how positive are relations between
China and Australia, I don't think we're going to see
you a lot of movement on that.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
These are complicated times. James Maker, thank you for joining me.
And if you found this conversation insightful, be sure to
follow the Bloomberg Australia Podcast wherever you listen and tuck
in for more reading and deep dives into Australia's place
in geopolitics on Bloomberg dot com. This episode is recorded
on the traditional lands of the Rungery people. It was
(15:36):
produced by Paul Allen and edited by Chris Burke and
Ainsley Chandler. I'm Rebecca Jones and I'll see you next week.
There's the Superpower Leaders meeting that Anthony Alberizi has not
yet been able to organize with American President Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
And now there's the one that he has been able
to organize with China's Shi Jinpin. Thank you, mister President.
This is my eighth visit to China, but my second
as Prime Minister, and I appreciate very much your hospitality.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
In both our relations with our biggest economic partner and
our biggest security partner. We're going to have to have
a higher tolerance for conflict because that we're going to
have problems with both of them.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Prime Minister Anthony Alberinizi just made his second trip in
as many years to China. But just how high are
the stakes for his government and what does this most
recent visit tell us about Australia's future. Welcome to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I'm Rebecca Jones. Now, on paper, Anthony
alban His trip to China was all about economics, expanding trade,
(01:04):
reviving tourism and shoring up Aussie jobs. But behind the
official photo ops, the backdrop was anything but simple, with
Donald Trump's escalating tariff threats and Beijing stants on Taiwan,
hardening Albo's meeting with President Jijiping carried weight that was
far beyond just the bilateral relationship. So this week on
(01:25):
the podcast, we ask what actually came out of this
trip and how is it all playing out in Beijing?
To help me answer, I am delighted to welcome James
Mega to the podcast. James is a reporter for Bloomberg
News based in out Beijing bureau. James, welcome, Thanks for
having me on. So alban Isy's China visit has been
(01:46):
leading most of the nightly news bulletins here in Australia,
but I'd be really interested in what the Chinese are
making of it all. You've been watching this visit pretty
closely this week. What's the reaction been like from the locals.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
The reaction here in the media has been pretty positive,
you s State media shkin Huai, which is a wire service,
had a commentary called the visit a positive step in
advancing the relationship, and The China Daily, which is the
main English language state media newspaper, said it was a
friendly gesture and not only important for biateral ties, but
(02:20):
also sending a message to the rest of the world.
Amid this global you know, changing global trade landscape. And
one thing I noted was that there was a lot
of appreciation of the fact that he was here for
a full six days and not just visiting Beijing and
you know, doing a photo up with President Shi or
the other leaders, but also going to Shanghai and also
to Chungdu, which very few foreign leaders go to, even
(02:42):
though it's a massive city in the center of China
with a population bigger than Australia. So that's an unusually
long trip from Australian PM to do overseas, and I
think there was an appreciation of that length from the
you know, the Chinese media.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Why was the trip so important to Elbow and you
know the reverse, How important was it for Hijipin.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
I think the trip is important for the Austraan government,
for the Prime Minister in a number of ways. First,
as you said, you know, the economic ties between Australia
and China are critical for the Australian economy. Trade. It's
trying to take one third of Australian exports. And when
the Prime Minister and then the government came into office
in twenty twenty two, fixing ties with China was clearly
(03:26):
the number one foreign policy priority. He came late twenty
twenty three with Foreign Minister Penny Wong as sort of
the final step in turning around the collapse in ties
that happened during the pandemic. And now finally at this
point all of the blocks that Chinese had it on
China has had on on Australian exports have been removed.
(03:47):
So basically things are back to how they were before
ties started to deteriorate, I guess in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen,
So that the first thing is it's just showing that
now things have returned to normal.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Now you're quite right, they did do a good job
of repairing that relationship, which you know, as you say,
was fractured during the pandemic, but wasn't in that great
of a state before then either was.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
It no Chinese relation or China Australia relations had been
deteriorating four years before the pandemic. You saw the foreign
interference laws brought in under Mounted Turnbull. There was increasing
unhappiness with Chinese actions and Chinese investment into certain sectors
in Australia, and so what had been pretty positive in
twenty fourteen twenty fifteen under Tony Abbott with his signing
(04:30):
of the FTA and Shijin being visiting Canberra and giving
a speech in Parliament. Really, by twenty twenty ties were
already pretty battered, and then the pandemic and Maurice Pain
and Scott Morrison's call for an investigation the origins of
COVID basically just dumped into the sea. And so it
really was a sustained effort by Pennywog, Priminus Albinasi and
(04:52):
the Chinese side as well, who also wanted to fix
ties that led to the where we are today, where
things are stable, there is no blockages to trade and
everyone is talking again. I think also for the PM,
though there's a personal aspect to this trip, the ALP
has a view that they are the better stewards of
relations with China than the Coalition, And in both of
(05:14):
his trips now he's been recreating images from GoF Whitlam's
trip in nineteen seventy one. So last time he was
here he went to the Echo Wall at the Temple
of Heaven, which is where Whitlam took a famous photograph
of listening to the wall. And then today he's up
again Albanize's up on the wall where Whitlam went in
ninety seventy one when he came into the opposition leader.
So you know, he really used it of HARKing back
(05:36):
to that Labor Party tradition of the Labor Party being
the better steward of relations with China. Whether you think
that's true or not, there is definitely that kind of
personal aspect of the trip for him.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Nineteen seventy one, Kracky, that's long before you and I
were born. And I'm guessing but Gough Whitlam didn't wear
a rabbito's cap when he was making his visit. Dinny James,
this optics, as you say, and from both sides, by
the sounds of it, has been very positive. How do
we think that Albaneze has really fared? Now we're getting
towards the end of the visit. Has there been any
(06:09):
tangible results or packs come out of this visit.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
I think the visit has gone off pretty much as
the government would have liked. There's been some announcements on trade,
on business, cooperation on tourism, but there's not really been
a big change in ties. From where I see it
here in Beijing, my impression is the Chinese government really
wants to make a big show of improving ties, to
show that they can have good relations with a US,
(06:35):
ally with the developed nation and they can move away
from the trade economic coercion that was happening in twenty
twenty and twenty twenty one. They want to build on
the positive momentum, which is something they keep saying, and
show they're having win win cooperation. But my feeling is
that the government Canberra is pretty happy where things are now.
They're still using the terms stabilizing ties. They haven't stabilized,
(06:58):
They're always in the process of stabilizing. And I don't
really feel there's a big appetite from the Prime Minister,
from the government generally for any kind of big gesture
or really deepening of ties, and you can kind of
see that in the announcement yesterday that Australia and China
are going to renew the FTA. When the Prime Minister
announced it yesdayt the press conference, he said it's in
(07:18):
the FTA that we have to review this after ten years,
so we're going to take a look at what the
deal says and what we can do. It wasn't particularly
effusive and it's kind of like it's in the contract,
we have to do it, and you can kind of
see that in the contrast with how EGO New Zealand
was to renew their at FTA with China a few
years ago when that reached ten years. The New Zealand
(07:38):
was really keen to upgrade the FTA to include services
and to do a lot more with China when they
had their negotiations. But right now, I didn't really see
any kind of enthusiasm from the Prime Minister when he
was speaking about it yesterday.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
And this meeting. Of course we're talking today it's Wednesday.
When this meeting happened on Tuesday, James, were there any
tension points between Albanesi and g.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
In the meetings yesterday? As far as we've seen from
the readouts and the description that the Prime Minister gave,
it seems to have been pretty pleasant. You know. The
public statements are all very amicable, with the Premier League
Chung praising the Prime Minister and saying, thanks to your
personal efforts and the joint efforts of both countries, we've
returned Australian relations to stability from the low point. But
(08:26):
I think a lot of that or so at least
some of that sort of bonhomie good relations was achieved
by avoiding difficult topics. The Prime Minister said that China
didn't raise the issue of Dao and Port, which the
government has promised to take back from its Chinese owner
and return to Australian hands. The Chinese Prime misisters said
the Chinese didn't relate raise the question of the Foreign
Investment Review Board, which has blocked a number of proposed
(08:49):
Chinese investments. And also there was no question about what
Australia would do to support the US if there's a
conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
It sort of feels like a Ristmas dinner table where
you avoid religion and politics and just keep everything nice.
When we come back, let's talk about the orcus shaped
elephant in the room. You're listening to the Bloomberg Australia podcast.
Welcome back. I'm Rebecca Jones and you're listening to the
(09:20):
Bloomberg Australia podcast. I'm talking to James Mega today, al
Beijing based correspondent for a deeper dive into Anthony Albinizi's
visit to China. So James, the Press pac sure had
a good go at albow asking about defense tensions between
Australia and China, but he did manage to bet awaiyh
those questions. Is it just a matter of time before
(09:42):
that's not going to be possible.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
There's true real areas of tension between Australia and China
on security matters. The first is how does the Chinese
in the Australian military deal with each other when they
come in contact with each other, whether that's in the
Tasman Sea or the East China Sea or the South
China Sea. And that is becoming increasingly an issue because
Australian military vessels and aircraft are going through these China
(10:04):
and South China see and the Chinese don't like that,
and they are trying to stop that. It's not just Australia,
it's the US, it's Japan at South Korea, it's our
allies Canada, for example. The Chinese don't like that, and
they're trying to stop that by intercepting those ships and
intercepting those planes in ways that everyone else thinks is unsafe,
but China continues to do so. You know, Albenizi did
(10:26):
raise those kind of unsafe intercepts and did ask the Chinese,
you know, to be safer in how they do those things.
He also said that he wanted more warning from the
Chinese when they do things like live fire drills and
the Tasman Sea. You know, perfectly legal action by the
Chinese government. It's international waters. And Albanese said at the
time that you know, what they were doing was legal,
(10:47):
but he wanted to be told that, you know, further
in advance, not to find out about it from a
quantus plane flying overhead sort of thing. He didn't say
if he actually got to shore on some huge in
ping that they would be better for next time. But
it's clear that you know, that's going to be an
issue going forward because the PLA, the Navy, the Air
Force are going out to the Western Pacific and will
(11:09):
be going out further around the world as they get more,
as they get more ships, as they do more around
the world. There just will be more instances and cases
where Australia and China or Japan or you know, our
allies butt up against Chinese to the Chinese military in
the future. So that's one area where there's possibility of
not conflict but tension. The second area which is much
more critical and much more risky is obviously the Taiwan Straight,
(11:33):
and the PM's trip got off to a pretty rocky
start as because as you landed, The Financial Times reported
that the US Defense Department had asked Australia in Japan
to make clear what they would do if there was
a conflict in the Taiwan Straight between Taiwan and the
US and China. The PM said he'd made clear to
Shujin Ping and I guess possibly to Lee Chung as well,
(11:54):
though it wasn't mentioned that Australia wants things to say
the same as they are now. We don't want conflict,
we don't want any and trying to change the way
things are in the Taiwan in Taiwan now, especially using
force to do so. But the question will be if
there is a conflict in Taiwan, what does Australia do?
What do other US allies like Japan or the Philippines
(12:15):
or South Korea do? And all of those countries are
US security allies that where China is their largest trading partner,
and so many countries in Asia are facing the same
question that Australia is facing now if it comes to
a conflict across the Taiwan straight if China tries to
invade Taiwan, how do you deal with that? How do
(12:35):
you keep relations with your security partner but also hopefully
keeping relations with your biggest trading partner. I mean, if
a conflict does happen, though, maybe many of those questions
will be moved, because as we're seen in Ukraine, a
massive war in your doorstep is not great for your
economy and will have many, many side effects. The question
(12:57):
of whether there is going to be a conflict or
not is not one that the Prime Minister Australia can decide. Obviously,
the Chinese leadership, the Taiwanese leadership, the US leadership are
really going to be the main parties making that decision.
But Australia can put sort of some pressure on all
of the parties to try and avoid that outcome. But
the Prime Minister of Australia, whoever that is at the
(13:19):
time when something like this possibly does happen, is going
to be faced with this question and it's not going
to go away. Even though Albanesi was able to sort
of avoid the question while he was here, the.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Visit is almost over. James Finally, how does our relationship
look like with China today compared to one week ago.
Speaker 4 (13:38):
I think the Australia China relationship is basically the same
as it was last week before Albanzi got here. The
trading relationship has got over all of the Chinese are
coercion and tariffs that was facing. Tourism is back to
pre pandemic levels, and Chinese are the second largest source
of inbound visitors to Australia. From what you're seeing or
(14:01):
from what I'm seeing here in Beijing, China wants to
do more with Australia. China wants to deepen that relationship,
strengthen that relationship. They want to invest more in the
Australian economy. And my impression is to the Australian government
is very much happy with things the way things are
right now. They don't want to do a whole lot
more with China, and they don't really want to be
seen to be doing a whole lot more with China,
(14:22):
so they're happy to be here that Albinizi is spending
a whole week here, which I think is being well
received by the Chinese. But I don't really feel that
there's a real desire for a massively improved relationship from
the Australian side, and so I think basically the status
quo will be trade is good, we're talking, we're having
(14:42):
regular meetings. You know, businesses are businesses are talking to
each other, and there'll be little things like we'll review
the FTA. You know, Australian apple farmers on the mainland
will be able to sell apples to China. Now these
kind of things. Maybe there'll be some actual movement on
green steel and decarbonization of the steel supply chain, if
bordisc you can get its way, But on the bigger
(15:04):
picture of how strong and how positive are relations between
China and Australia, I don't think we're going to see
you a lot of movement on that.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
These are complicated times. James Maker, thank you for joining me.
And if you found this conversation insightful, be sure to
follow the Bloomberg Australia Podcast wherever you listen and tuck
in for more reading and deep dives into Australia's place
in geopolitics on Bloomberg dot com. This episode is recorded
on the traditional lands of the Rungery people. It was
(15:36):
produced by Paul Allen and edited by Chris Burke and
Ainsley Chandler. I'm Rebecca Jones and I'll see you next week.
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