Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
This town, Washington, d C has been thrown into a spin.
Donald Trump has promised radical change in the US markets
right now.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
It's all about what they're calling the Trump trades and
there's a feel of So let's go Hello.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
I'm Rebecca Jones and welcome to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. Today.
On the show, Donald Trump's decisive election victory has already
led to a frantic repricing in financial markets around the world.
After all, he has vowed to slap across the board
tariffs on US imports, slash taxes on everything from corporate
profits to overtime pay. He's also mused about changing the
(00:38):
Federal Reserves leadership and claimed the right to have some
sort of say over interest rates himself. Richard Henderson is
a crossasset reportered with Bloomberg News, and he joins me
today to try and decode what this might mean for US.
Rich welcome back, great to see you, Good to be here.
So let's rip right into the global implications of Trump
(00:58):
winning the election. What does his second term mean for
global markets?
Speaker 4 (01:03):
Investors have been grappling with this over the past week.
The key question is does the return of Donald Trump
to the White House also bring about inflation in the
US just as it's being gotten under control.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
By the Federal Reserve.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
And there's really three policies that investors are talking about
where this could be an issue. The first one is migration.
There's a plan to deport a whole bunch of illegal
immigrants in the US that potentially could push up labor costs,
which would then be inflationary. The second is tax cuts.
(01:40):
We see personal tax cuts roll over at the end
of twenty twenty five, they might be extended or even
broadened out, and Trump also wants to cut the corporate
tax rates. The third one is tariffs. We've heard about
this sixty percent tarify on Chinese imports, other across the
board tariffs for other countries that would also be inflationary.
(02:03):
The costs of goods would be those higher costs are
passed on to consumers, leading to an inflationary pulse through
the US economy. If this happens, then there will be
significant impacts for global markets, including the fixed income market,
US government debt, also stocks and other assets.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
So there are these three sort of big banner items
that we're looking at here right. So tariffs is one
of them. The migration question as well, and also.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Tax cuts, tax cuts.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Let's go in a little glass half full, because that's
just how I like to do it, and look at
what investments are likely to do given these three big
issues that are looming and yet really unknown for the
most part of it. We just have promises at this
stage which investments are likely to do well under this
(02:56):
Trump administration.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Which ones are already doing well well? You should say.
With bitcoin and crypto, it's been on a tear.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
We've seen new record highs for bitcoin in particular. Trump
is a big fan of bitcoin. It was quite an
intelligent decision to curate lure the bitcoin bros into Trump Lands.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
They really targeted them, didn't he And.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
They turned out to vote as well in what we're
hearing in significant numbers. So we can expect some sort
of benign regulatory environment for a crypto. The head of
the SEC the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is one
of the key US financial regulators, a guy named Gary Gensler,
is famously skeptical of crypto.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
They want him gone.
Speaker 4 (03:42):
He'll be gone very quickly and brought in. He will
be replaced by someone who has a bit more of
a supportive agenda for crypto the other assets. Stocks would
be another key one to look at. Trump is generally
pro growth, you know, he likes deregulation. We can expect
(04:03):
stocks to do well in that environment of an expanding
US and global economy.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
There are specific sectors you.
Speaker 4 (04:10):
Might look at financials if we see deregulation in the
banking system. We saw that in Trump's first term, so
companies like JP Morgan might do well, and then tech
is probably going to do well. It's already done very well.
That's probably going to extend under a Trump term.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
Can we stick with stocks for a second. How is
that translating through to ASX listed stocks. Are we seeing
the same kind of thing here?
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Demand for US equities it's a good proxy for global
risk appetite, so Ozsie stocks should do well in that
environment as well. The sectoral makeup of the US stock
market and the Australian stock marke are very different. You know,
Australia doesn't really have tech in the ASX two hundred,
whereas in the US it's almost half the index. So
we are going to see probably a good environment for
(04:57):
Rozzie stocks, but very different. And if we start to
see a slowdown in China. China's going through a really
important phase right now. If it's hit by sixty percent
US tariffs, that might weaken it further at this very
vulnerable moment. That then may decrease demand for Australian goods
and services from China, which could weaken some some large
(05:19):
Australian companies. There may be a slowdown in demand for
iron ore, for instance, that would hit companies like BHP
and Rio Tinto. And on the flip side, if there
is this potential inflationary pulse from the United States economy,
that then may filter down into interest rates in Australia
being higher for longer, which could at the margin support
(05:39):
the banks in Australia, think about CBA or Westpac.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
I want to zoom in a little closer into the
impact on US on Australia a little later on, but
I do want to pick up on an asset class
that we haven't looked at yet, and that is the
bond market. We had Noriel Rabini on Bloomberg TV this
week saying that we've Trump back in the Oval office.
We could see the return of bond vigilantes. Now, for
(06:05):
those of you who don't know who he is. He
has the rather ominous nickname of doctor Doom. He's an
economist who predicted accurately the global financial crisis. Now he
hasn't been as on point with some of his predictions,
for example, throughout the COVID nineteen pandemic. But Rich, let's
have a look at this latest statement from Rubini.
Speaker 5 (06:24):
I would say, however, is that he cares about market discipline,
and if bond yous go higher and the stock market correct,
that's a bond vigil lamp. Is the market saying your
policy are unsustainable?
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Is this likely to happen?
Speaker 4 (06:39):
It's a great question, and it all relates to the
prospect of Trump policies being inflationary. If they appear to be,
then what Rubini is saying the bond vigilantes, and it's
a great term. It basically means, you know, investors who
can bully the US government by aggressively buying or selling debt,
which can then manipulate or if the yield on that debt,
(07:02):
which can make it more expensive for the US government
to borrow money. So what he's saying is that if
investors are showing concern that Trump will be inflationary, they
could aggressively sell their holdings of US government debt, which
would push the yield higher. And so when the US
government goes to borrow money from investors, it will be
more expensive to do so. And there's already so many
(07:23):
concerns about the US deficit that would increase even more
if it's more expensive to refine that set existing debt.
So he's saying, yes, the bond vigilantes may show up.
They may say you've got to watch out on inflation.
They'll bully the government into tweaking that policy to make
it a bit more supportive of inflationary policies or more
helpful policies.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
And surely Chump has got economic advisors around him that
can help him sort of navigate away from that, right.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Yes, and he's got a few Wall Street types, you know,
hedge fund managers that are in his inner circle, who
will be very aware about this potential and will be
able to not just see those bond vigilantes start to act,
but they actually know them personally.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Hmmm. It's interesting.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
One thing I mentioned at the very start of our
conversation was one of the big questions that he is
out there is whether or not Trump is going to
want to replace the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Now,
Powell's term is supposed to run through May twenty twenty six. Right,
let's first hear how the President elect described Powell's job
(08:28):
to my boss and rich your boss too, John Micklethwaite
just before the election.
Speaker 5 (08:33):
Look, I think it's the greatest job in government. You
show up to the office once a month and you say,
let's say Philip Aco, and everybody talks about you like
you're a god. Oh, what will he do?
Speaker 3 (08:47):
So obviously he's been a little tongue in cheek there.
Or is he rich? This topic has come up in
Trump's last presidency. Is he likely to go down this
path again?
Speaker 4 (08:58):
I think we can expect Trump to be very vocal.
And if Trump's policies are inflationary and the Federal Reserve
will do what it has to do and keep rates
high or even increase interest rates, Trump will be very
upset about that, and he'll try and bully the Fed
into keeping them low or cutting. And that's where we'll
(09:18):
see that friction power. Drome Power has come out and
said Trump can't fire him again, it's against the law.
There's no legal power.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
To do so.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
There is some work done by some scholars saying that
Trump could demote power to being a regular member of
the Federal Reserve rather than the chair. That hasn't really
been tested legally. So maybe we see some precedent sets
or at least that go to the courts. I don't know,
but the friction is likely to stay there and.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
When we come back, we'll have a look at what
this means for other interest rates, and I mean for
your and my monthly mortgage repayment.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Right around the world, we're seeing an increase in protectionist measures.
Economies and countries right around the world are engaging.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
In this in one way or another.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
What makes that problematic for Australia is about half of
our economy is trade. The proportion of our economy which
is trade is much higher than the Americans. It's about
a quarter Europe it's about a third. For us, it's
about half of our economy. And so we've got a
lot of Stay.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
Here and welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. You're
with me, Rebecca Jones and my guest Richard Henderson, Bloomberg
News reporter. We just heard there from the Australian Treasurer
Jim Chalmers talking to the ABC this week. Rich, there's
really no bones about it is that trade impacts everything.
Can you explain what this new era means for Australian
(10:50):
interest rates?
Speaker 4 (10:52):
Well, a global trade war sounds pretty scary and it
would have pretty bad effects for a lot of countries.
The issue again come back not just to a potential
slowdown in China. If we see those tariffs from the
US put on Chinese goods, the Chinese economy slows, there's
less demand for Australian goods from China goods and services.
(11:12):
That would be a problem for the Australian economy. But
at the same time, what happens with inflation. If there
is that inflationary pulse through the US economy.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Does that hit Australia?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
Do we because of that have to keep our interest
rates higher for longer?
Speaker 1 (11:28):
So you've got these twin effects.
Speaker 4 (11:29):
Because a slowing of the Australian economy and interest rates
and inflation being elevated is not a good mix. That's
that stagflationary scenario. We don't want to see that. But again,
there might be an offsetting of some of these Some
of these impacts, So it's very hard to read through
it right now and how.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
Immediate are the results? Does it depend how these trade
wars unfold, or will we expect to see the effects
of any sort of tariffs that Trump does follow through
pretty much straight away in our economic data.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
I think it will take time, and I think it's
very dependent on how quickly Trump acts. You know one
person I speak to very regularly, he's a hedge fund manager.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
He is very close to some of these topics.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
His idea he kind of called the election he knew
Trump would win by a landslide. He was very confident
he positioned his portfolio for that. He was basically saying
that we're probably never going to see sick dibsent tariffs.
What we'll see is that used as a bargaining chip
with China to extract something to get the terms of
trade a little bit more. Even so, that's this type
(12:36):
of scenario we could see play out where we don't
actually see those tariffs, it's just a bargaining chip. So
it's very hard to read through some of these cross currents.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
So we've heard what stocks have been doing so far
and how other assets like crypto fearing and are likely
to faring in the weeks ahead, whether or not Trump
is going to fire his top central banker, and what
a potential trade war is going to mean for Australia.
So scared to ask, But what is the next big
blockbuster event that Australians should be keeping their eyes on.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
Well, we have the FEDS monthly meeting in December where
they make cuprates again, that will be very important to
look for. I think also looking at who Trump surrounds himself.
We're starting to see announcements of senior positions which are
very telling. We're single of loyalists around Trump. And then
when Trump comes to office, what happens in those first
(13:26):
few weeks. Do we see a rush of you know,
some very important legislative and executive orders that are pushed
through quickly.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
And what.
Speaker 4 (13:36):
Do we see in terms of the Trump agenda? How
quickly is that executed into what degree? That's really the key.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
And we'll be following along. Rich Thanks for joining me,
Thanks so much, and thank you for listening to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast Time Rebecca Jones. This episode was recorded
on the lands of the Runderie people of the cool
And Nation. It was produced by Paul Allen and edited
by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler. Don't forget to follow
and rev you the show wherever you get your podcasts,
(14:02):
and sign up for Bloomberg's free daily news Setter Australia Briefing.
Go to bloombag dot com to subscribe.