April 30, 2025 • 19 mins
For years, Australia’s “miracle” economy has been buoyed by immigration, property and China. With those three pillars now wobbling, whoever wins this weekend’s federal election faces an economy in need of some tough fixes.
This week on the podcast, host Rebecca Jones talks to Swati Pandey and Ben Westcott about the major parties’ economic policies, and whether either side has a plan that can fix Australia’s twin cost-of-living and housing crises.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Families have been smashed under your government, and if you're
re elected, the prices will keep going off.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Thank your friends for each way us in this election campaign,
as you have identified a range of issues, but you
have no solutions and you pretend that they've arisen. In
May twenty and twenty two.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
After a five week campaign that's focused heavily on Australian's
falling standard of living, we're finally on the verge of
deciding our next government. But can any of the contenders
in Saturday's election fix an economy that's starting to look
a bit broken. Hello, I'm Rebecca Jones and welcome to
the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I don't know about you, but
(00:42):
to me, the last five weeks have felt more like
five months, with our election campaign competing for attention with
a global market meltdown and on again, off again, who
knows what trade was. But we're nearly at the finish line.
So this week we're going to take a look at
the economic reality is facing whoever is elected come Saturday.
(01:04):
To help me do that, I'm joined by Smarty Panty,
who writes about the economy for Bloomberg from our Sydney
newsroom and Ben Westcott, our government reporter based in the
nation's capital. Welcome back to the podcast guys, and thank
you for joining me and what I know is a
huge week for the both of you.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Thank you back, delighted to be here and looking forward
to talking to you both.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
Thanks for having me back.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
So then let's start with you. You've been in and
out speaking to people in marginal electorates which could well
determine the outcome of the election this weekend. How are
people feeling ahead of the big day.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Look, I think there are people in the marginal electorates
around the country who would be saying things that the
major parties are keen to hear. On the labor side,
you do hear some people who say that labor has
dealt as best as they can with a difficult situation,
with high inflation and a cost of living crisis. There
are many who say that they want to give Alberanesi
another chance. But then there are also people who say
(02:03):
that cost living has been too high, the government hasn't
done enough, and that they're disappointed by what Prime Minister
Anthony but he has to offer. However, finally, there's also
a large group of voters who don't say what the
major parties want to hear, who are turned off both sides.
They don't like Albernesi, but they don't like the alternative
in Peter Dutton, and what they want to see is
a third choice. And so we're going to see a
(02:25):
number of people who turn to minor parties like the
Greens and the One Nation Party, in addition to people
who will be voting for independents who don't support either
major party and just represent their own electorate.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
And what is behind this about face from these voters, Well,
this is part.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Of a long term trend in Australian politics. So at
the last election we saw the largest number of third
party votes votes not for the center left Labor Party
or the center right Liberal National Coalition in the country's history.
And basically that means that people are turning away from
Labor Liberal and looking for different options, people who can
(03:02):
maybe shatter the status quo a little bit, like people
like Donald Trump has done in the US, or Nigel
Farage and the Brexit team have done in the UK.
And what we're really seeing now is that if this
trend continues, and if this election potentially shows a government
in minority afterwards for just the third time in recent years.
Then what we could be seeing is a real crisis
(03:23):
of fate for the Liberals and for the Labor Party.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
It does make for a complicated contest, doesn't it, SWARTI look,
I feel like We're only minutes into this conversation and
I'm going to drop the phrase that I reckon is
just so overused, but maybe for not much longer the
lucky country. For years, the Australian economy has been admired
on a global stage. Can you help describe what the
(03:47):
key drivers have been that have created this so called
miracle economy and more specifically, what has changed to make
people feel like Australia's on a bit of a losing streak.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
I would say that they have been three major pillars
of Australia's economic growth, and I would use three words
to describe them. That's population, China, and property. Australia has
been running the biggest per capita immigration program in the world,
chostling with Canada for the top spot, and our population
(04:21):
has the largest proportion of migrants.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
In the world.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
That just goes to show how important immigration has been
for Australia's economy. Australia has also relied heavily on China's
demand for iron ore and coal, which are our two
biggest exports, and Australians have become extremely wealthy from rising
property prices. Unfortunately, Australia has become a victim of its
(04:51):
own success. So we did not use the wealth that
we earned over the past two decades or so wisely,
we have flounder the opportunities away. We did not think
about a future where China will probably not be buying
as much as they have bought in recent history. We
(05:13):
have not thought about energy transition. In fact, for a
very long time we questioned if climate change was real,
and we have not invested in building housing and infrastructure
for our growing population, and that is one of the
reasons why even the Australia's economy has been growing, people
(05:34):
don't feel like their living standards have improved and that
has led to the points that Ben was talking about
people not voting to the major parties and looking for
a third.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Option, because all of those things that you've just mentioned
are things that we want our governments, the people that
we elect to offers to think about, especially in the
medium and the longer term. The rest of the world, though,
to be fair, has also been doing it tough lately. Swadi,
What do the stats tell us how Australia is faring
(06:08):
compared to other countries at the moment.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
So cost of living crisis is not just an Australian problem,
and on a number of developed world indicators, Australia in
fact does really well. For example, it has among the
highest average lifespans, and you know, more broadly, it's one
of the most beautiful countries to live in. I migrated
(06:30):
to Australia about eleven years ago and I wouldn't want
to live anywhere else. However, if we look at economic
indicators and compare Australia with let's say Canada or even
the US, then we don't look great. Monash University published
an interesting piece of research recently where it compared Australia
with other developed world nations across ity indicators. It found
(06:54):
that Australia's progress has either stalled or went backwards on
more than half of those indicators, suggesting Australia is actually
lagging behind its peers.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
So what that shows.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Is that we are not doing very well economically. And
if we do not fix that, then socially we are
going to be worse off as well.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
And that leads me to the next question. What are
our two major parties saying about this over the last
five weeks? Are they being honest with this situation that
we're facing or PEPs Put another way, are any of
them coming up with strategies that economists are actually applauding.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
So the short answer to your question is no, economists
have not been very impressed with what they have seen
so far. In fact, this week, SMP Global Ratings want
that Australia's priced triple A sovereign rating maybe at risk
if election campaign pledges result in larger structural deficits, and
(07:55):
that just goes to highlight the fiscal pressures that is
face the next government. Both the parties have really talked
about various pending measures or tax cards, excise duty relief,
student debt relief and other measures like that, but there
is not a lot in the way of revenue raising
(08:19):
and that is a big problem, especially at a time
when we are in the midst of a global trade war.
China's demand is coming off as well as commodity prices.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
So Ben, with what you were saying before about how
many Australians are choosing to vote for someone who is
not part of one of the major parties in Australia,
the Liberal National Coalition or the Labor Party. Are there
any good examples over the last five weeks that you've
seen of anyone offering anything that could potentially be a
little out of the box or a solution for the
(08:54):
future that we have in front of us.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Yeah, absolutely beg the centrist Independence known as the Tel
Independence because of their color scheme which falls between the
Greens and the blue colored Liberal parties, so a sort
of centrist group of professional women. They want serious tax reform.
And Alegraspender, a MP for the Inner City Sydney seat,
(09:17):
has proposed a range of tax changes that she says
economists have suggested that would give Australia a more stable
income source and update our cracked and flagging tax system.
But there are also other more extreme opinions. For instance,
on the left, you have the Greens Party who are
calling for extensive changes, things like removing the tax breaks
(09:42):
for property investors that have enabled Australians to accrue sometimes
dozens of investment properties. Things they change into negative gearing
and the capital gains tax. On the other hands, you
have parties like Pauline Hanson's One Nation who are calling
for major, major cuts to immigration to abbeviate the house crisis.
So there are a range of options on the table
(10:03):
for Australians at this election, not just labor or liberal.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
It really is a variety pack. In twenty twenty five,
when we come back, we'll hit on something Swarty mentioned earlier.
One of the Big PA's property and another one productivity.
Could either of these hold the key to keeping Australia's
rep as the Lucky country. You're listening to the Bloomberg
Australia Podcast and welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
(10:34):
You're here with me. Rebecca Jones had a reminder you
can listen to all of our past exclusive election twenty
twenty five conversations wherever you get your podcasts. You'll hear
from experts in the field and from our brilliant team
of local Bloomberg reporters, including my two guests today, Bloomberg
reporter Ben Westcott and economics correspondent Swarty Pandy. Then, like
(10:56):
all good discussions about the Australian economy, we would be
remiss not to talk about property. How big of a
part has housing affordability played in this selection.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
The Essential Poll on Tuesday, their final one for the campaign,
found that housing was the second most important issue for
Australians by a significant margin, and there's no doubt that
for Australians more broadly, it varies between young people who
are worried they're never going to be able to afford
their own home and parents who are concerned that their
kids are locked out of the housing market permanently. Now
(11:29):
this is a significant issue. Whether it benefits either political
party is a major question. So while a lot of
people are angry at the Labor government but in their
eyes not having done enough to alleviate this housing crisis
over for the past three years, there is evidence that
they don't necessarily believe opportunately to Peter Dutton when he
places all blame for this housing crisis at Labour's door.
(11:52):
And there is members of the community, particularly young people,
who look at Dutton, who was a member of the
coalition government over the past nine years before our easy
and say why didn't you do more then? So it's
a really kind of a pox on both your houses solution.
Now at this current election, they've both put forward pretty
extensive plans to alleviate the crisis. What a lot of
(12:15):
Australians say is that they see labor solution as more
tailored to supply. Labor is pouring billions of dollars into
buying into building new houses, particularly its most recent plan
of ten billion dollars for first home buyers. On the
other hand, the Coalition has promised to put in five
billion dollars for last mile infrastructure that sewerage, power lines,
(12:36):
things like that to out of suburban Greenfield's housing, which
they claim would produce a large number of houses, but
which actually doesn't put the specific money there for that.
So housing supply is the big, big thing for most Australians,
and I think both parties are going to be judged
on that rather than the demand side issues, which a
lot of people say just push up the price of
(12:58):
housing without really providing any relief.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
So housing is the number two issue. Dare I ask
what's the number one living cost of living? Swati? This
is where you come in. One thing we haven't heard
a lot about in this campaign from either of the
major parties is productivity, which as you well know, has
been lagging in Australia for years. Surely that's the key
to a living standard increasing in the next few years. Right, Yes,
(13:26):
that's right back.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Productivity is a complicated topic that politicians do not like
to talk about. Productivity growth has been on a long
term decline in Australia and a lot of the developed
world as well. It has been growing in the US.
One of the reasons that productivity is falling in Australia
is because we are a very care dependent economy, not
(13:51):
a very manufacturing heavy economy. We have not had a
tax reform since the early two thousands, we have not
been investing enough in manufacturing in climate transition. There have
been productivity commissioned reports which have said given recommendations on
(14:12):
what we should do, and while politicians of all stripes
have said that these are important measures, it has been
put in the too hard basket. Nobody wants to talk
about them, nobody wants to touch them because it is
either too expensive or it is not something that is
going to earn them votes. So that is one of
(14:33):
the biggest reasons why Australians have been feeling like their
living standards have been going backwards.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
It does feel like in this campaign there has been
a somewhat of a brushing over of some of these
really big problems facing future generations of Australians been Swati.
Among the issues that we've discussed today, what do you
think will be the single biggest tipping point for voters
come Saturday? Ladies first, sweaty thanks beg.
Speaker 3 (15:05):
So this is the first election where young voters significantly
outnumbered those aged above sixty. So millennials and Gen Z
voters are more than boomers. And what is the biggest
problem that Gen Z and millennials are facing. It's housing.
It's either their inability to enter the housing market or
(15:28):
their inability to rent. Rents have been soaring it's become
unaffordable and many young families, many young immigrant families, have
been struggling to buy a house or live somewhere near
their workplaces as a result. Housing, I feel is going
to be a key topic and how millennials and Gen
(15:50):
Z votes is going to be really really interesting because
so far politicians have tried to lure the sixty plus population.
There has not been a lot that's been said or
done for the millennial engens advorters. So this election is
quite interesting in that sense.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
And Ben, for the last forty odd days you've been eating, sleeping,
breathing thinking about Australian politics. What do you think is
going to be the biggest deciding factor for voters come Saturday.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Well, I want to take us back to that phrase
you used at the start their back, lucky Country. And obviously,
as many people will know, that phrase originally was not
meant as a compliment. In Donald Horn's Lucky Country, which
really changed the way we use the phrase. He used
it to refer to Australia as a lucky country run
(16:42):
by third rate people who share its luck. And I
think this election has shown that cost of living really
is the main issue for most Australians. So both parties
are offering a large number of sugar hit measures to
help people get by over the next couple of years.
Is assuage their concerns. The Opposition is offering a temporary
(17:03):
cut to the fuel excise. The Government is offering very
small tax cuts over the next couple of years. But
as Swidi mentioned, big structural economic reform is just nowhere
to be seen. And this doesn't mean that both sides
don't know there is a train coming down the tracks
towards Australia. We have a problem in terms of our creaky,
(17:24):
outdated economic settings. But although Albernizi has gotten place some
measures for the future, in the future made for Australia
type moves, and although PA Dutton talks about creating a
strong economy, these are sort of piecemeal settings around the
outside that aren't going to be real major changes to
the economy. And I think although cost living will be
(17:47):
increasingly less of an issue after the election, inflation is
coming down, interest rates are expected to come down, and
these measures come into place will put more money in
people's pockets. There's no doubt that the big questions are
still left open after Saturday May third.
Speaker 1 (18:02):
And that really says it all. It'll be an election
to watch and that's for sure, and you can do
just that on Saturday May third from six pm Australian
Eastern Standard Time, where the Bloomberg Australian Newsroom will be
blogging all the breaking news on election night, including a
live results tracker, delivering global context to Australia's biggest night
(18:23):
of the year like only Bloomberg News can, and for
even more analysis on the tricky road Ahead. Why don't
you check out our brand new Bloomberg Originals documentary. It's
called Why Australia's Miracle Economy Is Failing and it's out
this week on YouTube. Thank you for listening to the
Bloomberg Australia podcast You've Been with Me, Rebecca Jones. This
(18:43):
episode was recorded on the traditional lands of the Wilmundary,
Gaddigill and Nullowell people. It was produced by Paul Allen
and edited by Ainsley Chandler, Chris Burke and Adam Hay.
Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you
get your podcasts, and sign up for Bloomberg's free daily
news Setter Australia Briefing. Go to Bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
Families have been smashed under your government, and if you're
re elected, the prices will keep going off.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Thank your friends for each way us in this election campaign,
as you have identified a range of issues, but you
have no solutions and you pretend that they've arisen. In
May twenty and twenty two.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
After a five week campaign that's focused heavily on Australian's
falling standard of living, we're finally on the verge of
deciding our next government. But can any of the contenders
in Saturday's election fix an economy that's starting to look
a bit broken. Hello, I'm Rebecca Jones and welcome to
the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I don't know about you, but
(00:42):
to me, the last five weeks have felt more like
five months, with our election campaign competing for attention with
a global market meltdown and on again, off again, who
knows what trade was. But we're nearly at the finish line.
So this week we're going to take a look at
the economic reality is facing whoever is elected come Saturday.
(01:04):
To help me do that, I'm joined by Smarty Panty,
who writes about the economy for Bloomberg from our Sydney
newsroom and Ben Westcott, our government reporter based in the
nation's capital. Welcome back to the podcast guys, and thank
you for joining me and what I know is a
huge week for the both of you.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Thank you back, delighted to be here and looking forward
to talking to you both.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
Thanks for having me back.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
So then let's start with you. You've been in and
out speaking to people in marginal electorates which could well
determine the outcome of the election this weekend. How are
people feeling ahead of the big day.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Look, I think there are people in the marginal electorates
around the country who would be saying things that the
major parties are keen to hear. On the labor side,
you do hear some people who say that labor has
dealt as best as they can with a difficult situation,
with high inflation and a cost of living crisis. There
are many who say that they want to give Alberanesi
another chance. But then there are also people who say
(02:03):
that cost living has been too high, the government hasn't
done enough, and that they're disappointed by what Prime Minister
Anthony but he has to offer. However, finally, there's also
a large group of voters who don't say what the
major parties want to hear, who are turned off both sides.
They don't like Albernesi, but they don't like the alternative
in Peter Dutton, and what they want to see is
a third choice. And so we're going to see a
(02:25):
number of people who turn to minor parties like the
Greens and the One Nation Party, in addition to people
who will be voting for independents who don't support either
major party and just represent their own electorate.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
And what is behind this about face from these voters, Well,
this is part.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Of a long term trend in Australian politics. So at
the last election we saw the largest number of third
party votes votes not for the center left Labor Party
or the center right Liberal National Coalition in the country's history.
And basically that means that people are turning away from
Labor Liberal and looking for different options, people who can
(03:02):
maybe shatter the status quo a little bit, like people
like Donald Trump has done in the US, or Nigel
Farage and the Brexit team have done in the UK.
And what we're really seeing now is that if this
trend continues, and if this election potentially shows a government
in minority afterwards for just the third time in recent years.
Then what we could be seeing is a real crisis
(03:23):
of fate for the Liberals and for the Labor Party.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
It does make for a complicated contest, doesn't it, SWARTI look,
I feel like We're only minutes into this conversation and
I'm going to drop the phrase that I reckon is
just so overused, but maybe for not much longer the
lucky country. For years, the Australian economy has been admired
on a global stage. Can you help describe what the
(03:47):
key drivers have been that have created this so called
miracle economy and more specifically, what has changed to make
people feel like Australia's on a bit of a losing streak.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
I would say that they have been three major pillars
of Australia's economic growth, and I would use three words
to describe them. That's population, China, and property. Australia has
been running the biggest per capita immigration program in the world,
chostling with Canada for the top spot, and our population
(04:21):
has the largest proportion of migrants.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
In the world.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
That just goes to show how important immigration has been
for Australia's economy. Australia has also relied heavily on China's
demand for iron ore and coal, which are our two
biggest exports, and Australians have become extremely wealthy from rising
property prices. Unfortunately, Australia has become a victim of its
(04:51):
own success. So we did not use the wealth that
we earned over the past two decades or so wisely,
we have flounder the opportunities away. We did not think
about a future where China will probably not be buying
as much as they have bought in recent history. We
(05:13):
have not thought about energy transition. In fact, for a
very long time we questioned if climate change was real,
and we have not invested in building housing and infrastructure
for our growing population, and that is one of the
reasons why even the Australia's economy has been growing, people
(05:34):
don't feel like their living standards have improved and that
has led to the points that Ben was talking about
people not voting to the major parties and looking for
a third.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Option, because all of those things that you've just mentioned
are things that we want our governments, the people that
we elect to offers to think about, especially in the
medium and the longer term. The rest of the world, though,
to be fair, has also been doing it tough lately. Swadi,
What do the stats tell us how Australia is faring
(06:08):
compared to other countries at the moment.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
So cost of living crisis is not just an Australian problem,
and on a number of developed world indicators, Australia in
fact does really well. For example, it has among the
highest average lifespans, and you know, more broadly, it's one
of the most beautiful countries to live in. I migrated
(06:30):
to Australia about eleven years ago and I wouldn't want
to live anywhere else. However, if we look at economic
indicators and compare Australia with let's say Canada or even
the US, then we don't look great. Monash University published
an interesting piece of research recently where it compared Australia
with other developed world nations across ity indicators. It found
(06:54):
that Australia's progress has either stalled or went backwards on
more than half of those indicators, suggesting Australia is actually
lagging behind its peers.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
So what that shows.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Is that we are not doing very well economically. And
if we do not fix that, then socially we are
going to be worse off as well.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
And that leads me to the next question. What are
our two major parties saying about this over the last
five weeks? Are they being honest with this situation that
we're facing or PEPs Put another way, are any of
them coming up with strategies that economists are actually applauding.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
So the short answer to your question is no, economists
have not been very impressed with what they have seen
so far. In fact, this week, SMP Global Ratings want
that Australia's priced triple A sovereign rating maybe at risk
if election campaign pledges result in larger structural deficits, and
(07:55):
that just goes to highlight the fiscal pressures that is
face the next government. Both the parties have really talked
about various pending measures or tax cards, excise duty relief,
student debt relief and other measures like that, but there
is not a lot in the way of revenue raising
(08:19):
and that is a big problem, especially at a time
when we are in the midst of a global trade war.
China's demand is coming off as well as commodity prices.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
So Ben, with what you were saying before about how
many Australians are choosing to vote for someone who is
not part of one of the major parties in Australia,
the Liberal National Coalition or the Labor Party. Are there
any good examples over the last five weeks that you've
seen of anyone offering anything that could potentially be a
little out of the box or a solution for the
(08:54):
future that we have in front of us.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Yeah, absolutely beg the centrist Independence known as the Tel
Independence because of their color scheme which falls between the
Greens and the blue colored Liberal parties, so a sort
of centrist group of professional women. They want serious tax reform.
And Alegraspender, a MP for the Inner City Sydney seat,
(09:17):
has proposed a range of tax changes that she says
economists have suggested that would give Australia a more stable
income source and update our cracked and flagging tax system.
But there are also other more extreme opinions. For instance,
on the left, you have the Greens Party who are
calling for extensive changes, things like removing the tax breaks
(09:42):
for property investors that have enabled Australians to accrue sometimes
dozens of investment properties. Things they change into negative gearing
and the capital gains tax. On the other hands, you
have parties like Pauline Hanson's One Nation who are calling
for major, major cuts to immigration to abbeviate the house crisis.
So there are a range of options on the table
(10:03):
for Australians at this election, not just labor or liberal.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
It really is a variety pack. In twenty twenty five,
when we come back, we'll hit on something Swarty mentioned earlier.
One of the Big PA's property and another one productivity.
Could either of these hold the key to keeping Australia's
rep as the Lucky country. You're listening to the Bloomberg
Australia Podcast and welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
(10:34):
You're here with me. Rebecca Jones had a reminder you
can listen to all of our past exclusive election twenty
twenty five conversations wherever you get your podcasts. You'll hear
from experts in the field and from our brilliant team
of local Bloomberg reporters, including my two guests today, Bloomberg
reporter Ben Westcott and economics correspondent Swarty Pandy. Then, like
(10:56):
all good discussions about the Australian economy, we would be
remiss not to talk about property. How big of a
part has housing affordability played in this selection.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
The Essential Poll on Tuesday, their final one for the campaign,
found that housing was the second most important issue for
Australians by a significant margin, and there's no doubt that
for Australians more broadly, it varies between young people who
are worried they're never going to be able to afford
their own home and parents who are concerned that their
kids are locked out of the housing market permanently. Now
(11:29):
this is a significant issue. Whether it benefits either political
party is a major question. So while a lot of
people are angry at the Labor government but in their
eyes not having done enough to alleviate this housing crisis
over for the past three years, there is evidence that
they don't necessarily believe opportunately to Peter Dutton when he
places all blame for this housing crisis at Labour's door.
(11:52):
And there is members of the community, particularly young people,
who look at Dutton, who was a member of the
coalition government over the past nine years before our easy
and say why didn't you do more then? So it's
a really kind of a pox on both your houses solution.
Now at this current election, they've both put forward pretty
extensive plans to alleviate the crisis. What a lot of
(12:15):
Australians say is that they see labor solution as more
tailored to supply. Labor is pouring billions of dollars into
buying into building new houses, particularly its most recent plan
of ten billion dollars for first home buyers. On the
other hand, the Coalition has promised to put in five
billion dollars for last mile infrastructure that sewerage, power lines,
(12:36):
things like that to out of suburban Greenfield's housing, which
they claim would produce a large number of houses, but
which actually doesn't put the specific money there for that.
So housing supply is the big, big thing for most Australians,
and I think both parties are going to be judged
on that rather than the demand side issues, which a
lot of people say just push up the price of
(12:58):
housing without really providing any relief.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
So housing is the number two issue. Dare I ask
what's the number one living cost of living? Swati? This
is where you come in. One thing we haven't heard
a lot about in this campaign from either of the
major parties is productivity, which as you well know, has
been lagging in Australia for years. Surely that's the key
to a living standard increasing in the next few years. Right, Yes,
(13:26):
that's right back.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Productivity is a complicated topic that politicians do not like
to talk about. Productivity growth has been on a long
term decline in Australia and a lot of the developed
world as well. It has been growing in the US.
One of the reasons that productivity is falling in Australia
is because we are a very care dependent economy, not
(13:51):
a very manufacturing heavy economy. We have not had a
tax reform since the early two thousands, we have not
been investing enough in manufacturing in climate transition. There have
been productivity commissioned reports which have said given recommendations on
(14:12):
what we should do, and while politicians of all stripes
have said that these are important measures, it has been
put in the too hard basket. Nobody wants to talk
about them, nobody wants to touch them because it is
either too expensive or it is not something that is
going to earn them votes. So that is one of
(14:33):
the biggest reasons why Australians have been feeling like their
living standards have been going backwards.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
It does feel like in this campaign there has been
a somewhat of a brushing over of some of these
really big problems facing future generations of Australians been Swati.
Among the issues that we've discussed today, what do you
think will be the single biggest tipping point for voters
come Saturday? Ladies first, sweaty thanks beg.
Speaker 3 (15:05):
So this is the first election where young voters significantly
outnumbered those aged above sixty. So millennials and Gen Z
voters are more than boomers. And what is the biggest
problem that Gen Z and millennials are facing. It's housing.
It's either their inability to enter the housing market or
(15:28):
their inability to rent. Rents have been soaring it's become
unaffordable and many young families, many young immigrant families, have
been struggling to buy a house or live somewhere near
their workplaces as a result. Housing, I feel is going
to be a key topic and how millennials and Gen
(15:50):
Z votes is going to be really really interesting because
so far politicians have tried to lure the sixty plus population.
There has not been a lot that's been said or
done for the millennial engens advorters. So this election is
quite interesting in that sense.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
And Ben, for the last forty odd days you've been eating, sleeping,
breathing thinking about Australian politics. What do you think is
going to be the biggest deciding factor for voters come Saturday.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Well, I want to take us back to that phrase
you used at the start their back, lucky Country. And obviously,
as many people will know, that phrase originally was not
meant as a compliment. In Donald Horn's Lucky Country, which
really changed the way we use the phrase. He used
it to refer to Australia as a lucky country run
(16:42):
by third rate people who share its luck. And I
think this election has shown that cost of living really
is the main issue for most Australians. So both parties
are offering a large number of sugar hit measures to
help people get by over the next couple of years.
Is assuage their concerns. The Opposition is offering a temporary
(17:03):
cut to the fuel excise. The Government is offering very
small tax cuts over the next couple of years. But
as Swidi mentioned, big structural economic reform is just nowhere
to be seen. And this doesn't mean that both sides
don't know there is a train coming down the tracks
towards Australia. We have a problem in terms of our creaky,
(17:24):
outdated economic settings. But although Albernizi has gotten place some
measures for the future, in the future made for Australia
type moves, and although PA Dutton talks about creating a
strong economy, these are sort of piecemeal settings around the
outside that aren't going to be real major changes to
the economy. And I think although cost living will be
(17:47):
increasingly less of an issue after the election, inflation is
coming down, interest rates are expected to come down, and
these measures come into place will put more money in
people's pockets. There's no doubt that the big questions are
still left open after Saturday May third.
Speaker 1 (18:02):
And that really says it all. It'll be an election
to watch and that's for sure, and you can do
just that on Saturday May third from six pm Australian
Eastern Standard Time, where the Bloomberg Australian Newsroom will be
blogging all the breaking news on election night, including a
live results tracker, delivering global context to Australia's biggest night
(18:23):
of the year like only Bloomberg News can, and for
even more analysis on the tricky road Ahead. Why don't
you check out our brand new Bloomberg Originals documentary. It's
called Why Australia's Miracle Economy Is Failing and it's out
this week on YouTube. Thank you for listening to the
Bloomberg Australia podcast You've Been with Me, Rebecca Jones. This
(18:43):
episode was recorded on the traditional lands of the Wilmundary,
Gaddigill and Nullowell people. It was produced by Paul Allen
and edited by Ainsley Chandler, Chris Burke and Adam Hay.
Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you
get your podcasts, and sign up for Bloomberg's free daily
news Setter Australia Briefing. Go to Bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
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