December 18, 2024 • 14 mins
Aussie stocks have rallied this year, buoyed by unwavering gains in banks and a global AI-fueled tech surge. In this week’s podcast, Rebecca Jones asks Bloomberg News stocks reporter Georgina McKay who the biggest winners and losers were on the ASX in 2024, and what lies ahead in 2025.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
CEOs and economists warning Australia will be hurt if Donald
Trump engages in a trade war with China. Confirming we
have interest rates on hold today at four point three
five percent.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Confirming again four point three five percent. The Reserve Bank
has left the cash rate on hold.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
As the sun sets on twenty twenty four, Australian shares
are set to not chuck their best annual performance in
three years. Who's leading the pack, who's missing out on
the rally and what can we expect in twenty twenty five. Hello,
I'm Rebecca Jones and you're listening to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
This week we're taking the yearly temperature of Australia's stock market,
(00:39):
which for the most part has been going gamebusters. Let's
take a look at what companies have emerged as twenty
twenty four's biggest winners and commiserate with some of the losers.
We'll also get a sense of what we can look
forward to in twenty twenty five as Donald Trump returns
to the White House, the RBA potentially makes that long
awaited rate cut. And to help me do all of that,
(01:01):
I need Georgie Mackay. She reports on stocks for Bloomberg
News in Sydney, and she's here with me now. Welcome
to the podcast, Georgie hi Beck.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Thanks for having me, Georgie.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
So, the ASX two hundred numerous record highs this year
and the year's not over. One of the things that
I've noticed that it's been different about this year is
that we have seen some IPO activity. I say some
because it hasn't been an incredible amount. But just last
week we had another company join the AOX. That company
(01:32):
is called digit COO Infrastructure Reat, actually the biggest IPO
in six years. It raised two billion OSSI dollars. Can
you tell me a little bit about that?
Speaker 3 (01:44):
So did you? Co Reat debuted on Friday, the thirteenth
of December, and now there was a lot of hype
going into this IPO. The IPO mark has been fairly quiet.
There haven't been too many offerings this year, so there
were many keen investors trying to get a piece of
the action. So it was oversubscribed. But then on the
other hand, the market chatter was that it was a
(02:06):
bit too expensive. There were concerns on the valuation. So
this company is investing in infrastructure assets related to data centers,
So it's a play on that AI theme, which is
quite hot at the moment. But ultimately, in the first
day of trade, after a fairly whip saw session, the
stock fell ten percent prior to the close, and then
(02:28):
on second day of trade on the Monday, it fell again,
So not a great way to fill the IPO market
with confidence. And that listing came on the back of
Guzman and Gomez, so the Mexican themed fast food chain,
and that was back in June, and that listening went
just gangbusters. The stock surged about thirty six percent on
(02:51):
its debut. And all year people have been hoping things
are going to come back online and GYG was possibly
the thing that was going to do that, and then
May it was going to be Digiico. But now we're
going into the new year and maybe maybe we might
finally see Australia's IPO market comeback.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
What about performance overall, Georgie. How has the ASX two
hundred had such a good year now?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Notwithstanding Thursday's global sell off driven by the US Federal
Reserve seeing fewer rate cuts next year, the benchmark gained
about ten percent so far, and that's putting it on
track for the best year since twenty twenty one, with
tech and financial stocks leading that advance. Now tech stocks
have rallied globally, largely fueled by that artificial intelligence hype.
(03:38):
And then with financial stocks, which is predominantly Australian major banks,
which is the most heavily weighted sector on the benchmark,
that has really lifted the overall gauge. CBA and Westpac
have rallied, leading gains among the majors, and CBA is
actually the most expensive megabank stock in the world, more
expensive than JP Morgan for example, and there's a few
(04:01):
reasons behind that. So elevated interest rates in Australia, better
than expected earnings among the banks. And then when we're
seeing a bit of concern about the uneven economic recovery
in China, and with investors not wanting too much exposure
to China or no exposure to China than capital and
was flowing into Australian banks as a relative safe haven.
(04:21):
It was out of the mining stocks which are more
exposed to China's demand for commodities, and so that was
part of the reason that we've seen this enduring reality
rally just to the bewilderment of the street. So CBA
has almost all cell ratings with a few holes, but
no buys. And all year everyone was saying this rally
is completely unjustified, it's going to come to a halt,
(04:43):
but the rally has really just continued.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Interesting about CBA being the most expensive bank stock and
of course fun fact there is that Matt Coman is
the only CEO of one of the big four banks
that isn't brand new to the job. The other three
of all got new CEOs this year, JOORGI, how do
we compare here in Australia to global markets and how
expensive are we relatively speaking?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
So the Australian benchmark is expensive relative to Asia and
to other Asian developed markets, but compared to global benchmarks,
so say the S and P five hundred and then
the NASDAK, we're fairly in line, if not or a
bit cheaper. But then New Zealand is the most expensive
major index in Asia.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
What's that? Is that because they're smaller, or.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
When we're seeing market turmoil in Asia and risk off sentiment,
when there's political volatility as we saw for example in
South Korea, or when there's economic concerns surrounding China. Then
we often see New Zealand green on those seas of
red days.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
What has been the best performing stock of the year
back to the A six now for US In Australia
so far.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
ZIP the payments company has been the best performing stock
by a long shot, and that's coming off the back
of a few disappointing years. The stock has gained about
three hundred and fifty percent for twenty twenty four. Now.
The bullishness on the company are among the investment community.
Part of that's coming from its growth prospects in the US,
(06:12):
so jud And Bailu, a hedge fund manager at Tribeca
Investment Partners who's soon actually going out on her own.
She said, the buy now, pay later theme, it's pretty
new in the US. The payments market is a lot
bigger and it's far more diversified, So that's presenting significant
opportunities for a company like ZIP. If they can snatch
(06:34):
some of that market share, then that could further fuel
the stock rally.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
And on the flip side, what's been our worst performing
stock this year so far? The is not over yet.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
A lithium producer, Lion Town has been the year's laggered.
Now Lion Town has been the headlines over the past
few years. It was the subject of a huge takeover
that ultimately got killed by Australian billionaire Gina ryan Heart.
And then this year we've seen an oversupply in the
lithnia market that has infected all lithium companies. Liontown was
(07:08):
an exempt from that. They had to curtail production at
their flagship Kathleen Valley Mine in a period of severely
depressed prices, but ubs in a recent note they think
we might have finally seen the bottom of this prolonged
lithium downturn. So perhaps the future and the year is
looking a little brighter for Liontown. But the wheak demand
(07:31):
for electric vehicles and in China and in other global
markets has certainly impacted the company in the broader lithium market.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
And when we come back, will the golden run of
Australia's stock market continue into twenty twenty five? And welcome
back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I'm Rebecca Jones. Today
I'm talking to Sydney based stocks reporter Georgie McKay on
the year that was for Australian stocks. And what's in
(07:59):
stall for the year year ahead Georgie, we do have
a rate cut expected sometime in the first half of
twenty twenty five, an election, let's not forget about that
due by May. What are the people you're talking to
telling you about how this could all play out for
Australian stocks.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
When that rate cut finally does come through, we're likely
to see some movement in the consumer discretionary space, you know,
maybe something like super cheap auto or electronics retailer jp
hi Fi which has performed quite strongly in recent times,
or jewelry retail La Visa, when we're seeing people a
bit more confident with their money. But then in terms
(08:35):
of bank shares, this is something that people are waiting
for to come through, a cut in interest rates and
that might actually compress net interest margins. Our net interest
margins are a key measure of profitability for Australian lenders.
So with that and then with increased competition, when we're
seeing that a possible recalibration in mortgage markets, then that
(08:58):
could be to the detriment of banks and their earnings
and possibly their share prices.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
And another big factor of course in share market performance
globally is the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
Let's take a listen to economist Chris Richardson speaking on
Sky News recently about the potential impact of his policies
on Australia.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Australia is a small country that sells to a big world.
As it so happens, we don't sell a whole lot
to the US and they don't buy a whole lot
from US, so it's not the direct threat. The risk
is more that our main trading partner, China does take
a hit from these tariffs.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Georgie, what sectors are the experts telling you are going
to be the most impacted by Trump's threat of potential
tariffs and quite significant ones too.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Right for Australia, the thing that is front and center
would be the heavily weighted on the exchange and then
very important economically mining and commodity space. So tariffs on
China's proposed tariffs on China or other trading partners might
slow overall global growth and then from that we might
(10:14):
see demand for commodity prices decline, and then that isn't
going to be great for our mining stocks that for
this year already on track for they're worsier since twenty fifteen,
so definitely people are thinking about that and how it's
going to play out for that sector.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Okay, but on the flip side, can I ask you
what stocks may actually do better if Trump does make
good with his threats on tariffs and indeed, what happens
if China strikes back and hem poses their own.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
Still looking at the commodity space, so if China restricts,
say that exports of rare earth in retaliation to the
US's proposed tariffs, then this could benefit a company called Linus.
It's a rares producer and Baron Joey note that I
was reading recently pointed out that it is the only
(11:03):
integrated separator of rares outside of China, so that stock
could certainly benefit from this tit for tat trade war
as political tensions intensify. And then Trump has also been
a very public supporter of the oil and gas sector.
So there's fight a quite a few plays in that
(11:24):
space listed on the Australian Exchange. We've got Woodside, Santos,
Beach Energy and Korn and then any stock listed in
Australia that generates a significant amount of revenue in the
US could benefit with that America first strategy and trying
to keep operations inside the United States. So a company
(11:44):
like Blue Scope Steel it rallied when Trump made comments
about tariffs just a few weeks ago and is a
huge operation already inside the United States. And then a
company like Walley also has big operations in the US.
Oh and them Zip and Block is based in the US.
ZIP is focusing on the US in terms of its strategy.
(12:05):
So companies like that. There's many different ways to play
the Trump theme on the Australian market.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
The Trump card. Could it be one Georgie? Finally, let's
do a little bit of crystal ball gazing. Will the
performance of the ASX two hundred, the strong performance continue
on into twenty twenty five. What's your prediction of where
we're going to see it ending up at the end
of next year.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
Yeah. Many of the people that I've spoken to see
the rally continuing, but they're saying we won't see the
same level of gross or the pace that we've seen
over this year. Now, there's a few things driving that bullishness.
There's Australia's status as a relative safe haven within Asia,
meaning can withstand the political volatility happening between China and
(12:51):
the US and any other trading partners. And then on
the other side, we've got domestic factors like a rate cut,
increased fiscal spending ahead of an election do before May,
and that's boosting growth inside Australia. So then those factors
all together we could see the share market benefit and
the overall economy.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
It is a really complicated puzzle. Georgie, thank you some
great insights there, and thank you for listening to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. On that note, this is our final
episode for twenty twenty four. We'll take a short break
now and be back on jan sixteen for more conversations
with the journalists of Bloomberg's Australian newsroom on the biggest
story shaping our place in global business. This episode was
(13:35):
recorded on the lands of the Rundery and Gatigal people
of the cool and Aniuran nation. It was produced by
Paul Allen and edited by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler.
Sarah Wells is our senior executive editor, and Emma O'Brien
is Bloomberg's head of Media Editorial. Don't Forget to follow
and review the show wherever you get your podcasts, and
sign up for Bloombag's free daily news Setter Australia Briefing.
(13:59):
Go to bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
CEOs and economists warning Australia will be hurt if Donald
Trump engages in a trade war with China. Confirming we
have interest rates on hold today at four point three
five percent.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Confirming again four point three five percent. The Reserve Bank
has left the cash rate on hold.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
As the sun sets on twenty twenty four, Australian shares
are set to not chuck their best annual performance in
three years. Who's leading the pack, who's missing out on
the rally and what can we expect in twenty twenty five. Hello,
I'm Rebecca Jones and you're listening to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
This week we're taking the yearly temperature of Australia's stock market,
(00:39):
which for the most part has been going gamebusters. Let's
take a look at what companies have emerged as twenty
twenty four's biggest winners and commiserate with some of the losers.
We'll also get a sense of what we can look
forward to in twenty twenty five as Donald Trump returns
to the White House, the RBA potentially makes that long
awaited rate cut. And to help me do all of that,
(01:01):
I need Georgie Mackay. She reports on stocks for Bloomberg
News in Sydney, and she's here with me now. Welcome
to the podcast, Georgie hi Beck.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Thanks for having me, Georgie.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
So, the ASX two hundred numerous record highs this year
and the year's not over. One of the things that
I've noticed that it's been different about this year is
that we have seen some IPO activity. I say some
because it hasn't been an incredible amount. But just last
week we had another company join the AOX. That company
(01:32):
is called digit COO Infrastructure Reat, actually the biggest IPO
in six years. It raised two billion OSSI dollars. Can
you tell me a little bit about that?
Speaker 3 (01:44):
So did you? Co Reat debuted on Friday, the thirteenth
of December, and now there was a lot of hype
going into this IPO. The IPO mark has been fairly quiet.
There haven't been too many offerings this year, so there
were many keen investors trying to get a piece of
the action. So it was oversubscribed. But then on the
other hand, the market chatter was that it was a
(02:06):
bit too expensive. There were concerns on the valuation. So
this company is investing in infrastructure assets related to data centers,
So it's a play on that AI theme, which is
quite hot at the moment. But ultimately, in the first
day of trade, after a fairly whip saw session, the
stock fell ten percent prior to the close, and then
(02:28):
on second day of trade on the Monday, it fell again,
So not a great way to fill the IPO market
with confidence. And that listing came on the back of
Guzman and Gomez, so the Mexican themed fast food chain,
and that was back in June, and that listening went
just gangbusters. The stock surged about thirty six percent on
(02:51):
its debut. And all year people have been hoping things
are going to come back online and GYG was possibly
the thing that was going to do that, and then
May it was going to be Digiico. But now we're
going into the new year and maybe maybe we might
finally see Australia's IPO market comeback.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
What about performance overall, Georgie. How has the ASX two
hundred had such a good year now?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Notwithstanding Thursday's global sell off driven by the US Federal
Reserve seeing fewer rate cuts next year, the benchmark gained
about ten percent so far, and that's putting it on
track for the best year since twenty twenty one, with
tech and financial stocks leading that advance. Now tech stocks
have rallied globally, largely fueled by that artificial intelligence hype.
(03:38):
And then with financial stocks, which is predominantly Australian major banks,
which is the most heavily weighted sector on the benchmark,
that has really lifted the overall gauge. CBA and Westpac
have rallied, leading gains among the majors, and CBA is
actually the most expensive megabank stock in the world, more
expensive than JP Morgan for example, and there's a few
(04:01):
reasons behind that. So elevated interest rates in Australia, better
than expected earnings among the banks. And then when we're
seeing a bit of concern about the uneven economic recovery
in China, and with investors not wanting too much exposure
to China or no exposure to China than capital and
was flowing into Australian banks as a relative safe haven.
(04:21):
It was out of the mining stocks which are more
exposed to China's demand for commodities, and so that was
part of the reason that we've seen this enduring reality
rally just to the bewilderment of the street. So CBA
has almost all cell ratings with a few holes, but
no buys. And all year everyone was saying this rally
is completely unjustified, it's going to come to a halt,
(04:43):
but the rally has really just continued.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Interesting about CBA being the most expensive bank stock and
of course fun fact there is that Matt Coman is
the only CEO of one of the big four banks
that isn't brand new to the job. The other three
of all got new CEOs this year, JOORGI, how do
we compare here in Australia to global markets and how
expensive are we relatively speaking?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
So the Australian benchmark is expensive relative to Asia and
to other Asian developed markets, but compared to global benchmarks,
so say the S and P five hundred and then
the NASDAK, we're fairly in line, if not or a
bit cheaper. But then New Zealand is the most expensive
major index in Asia.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
What's that? Is that because they're smaller, or.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
When we're seeing market turmoil in Asia and risk off sentiment,
when there's political volatility as we saw for example in
South Korea, or when there's economic concerns surrounding China. Then
we often see New Zealand green on those seas of
red days.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
What has been the best performing stock of the year
back to the A six now for US In Australia
so far.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
ZIP the payments company has been the best performing stock
by a long shot, and that's coming off the back
of a few disappointing years. The stock has gained about
three hundred and fifty percent for twenty twenty four. Now.
The bullishness on the company are among the investment community.
Part of that's coming from its growth prospects in the US,
(06:12):
so jud And Bailu, a hedge fund manager at Tribeca
Investment Partners who's soon actually going out on her own.
She said, the buy now, pay later theme, it's pretty
new in the US. The payments market is a lot
bigger and it's far more diversified, So that's presenting significant
opportunities for a company like ZIP. If they can snatch
(06:34):
some of that market share, then that could further fuel
the stock rally.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
And on the flip side, what's been our worst performing
stock this year so far? The is not over yet.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
A lithium producer, Lion Town has been the year's laggered.
Now Lion Town has been the headlines over the past
few years. It was the subject of a huge takeover
that ultimately got killed by Australian billionaire Gina ryan Heart.
And then this year we've seen an oversupply in the
lithnia market that has infected all lithium companies. Liontown was
(07:08):
an exempt from that. They had to curtail production at
their flagship Kathleen Valley Mine in a period of severely
depressed prices, but ubs in a recent note they think
we might have finally seen the bottom of this prolonged
lithium downturn. So perhaps the future and the year is
looking a little brighter for Liontown. But the wheak demand
(07:31):
for electric vehicles and in China and in other global
markets has certainly impacted the company in the broader lithium market.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
And when we come back, will the golden run of
Australia's stock market continue into twenty twenty five? And welcome
back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I'm Rebecca Jones. Today
I'm talking to Sydney based stocks reporter Georgie McKay on
the year that was for Australian stocks. And what's in
(07:59):
stall for the year year ahead Georgie, we do have
a rate cut expected sometime in the first half of
twenty twenty five, an election, let's not forget about that
due by May. What are the people you're talking to
telling you about how this could all play out for
Australian stocks.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
When that rate cut finally does come through, we're likely
to see some movement in the consumer discretionary space, you know,
maybe something like super cheap auto or electronics retailer jp
hi Fi which has performed quite strongly in recent times,
or jewelry retail La Visa, when we're seeing people a
bit more confident with their money. But then in terms
(08:35):
of bank shares, this is something that people are waiting
for to come through, a cut in interest rates and
that might actually compress net interest margins. Our net interest
margins are a key measure of profitability for Australian lenders.
So with that and then with increased competition, when we're
seeing that a possible recalibration in mortgage markets, then that
(08:58):
could be to the detriment of banks and their earnings
and possibly their share prices.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
And another big factor of course in share market performance
globally is the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
Let's take a listen to economist Chris Richardson speaking on
Sky News recently about the potential impact of his policies
on Australia.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Australia is a small country that sells to a big world.
As it so happens, we don't sell a whole lot
to the US and they don't buy a whole lot
from US, so it's not the direct threat. The risk
is more that our main trading partner, China does take
a hit from these tariffs.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Georgie, what sectors are the experts telling you are going
to be the most impacted by Trump's threat of potential
tariffs and quite significant ones too.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Right for Australia, the thing that is front and center
would be the heavily weighted on the exchange and then
very important economically mining and commodity space. So tariffs on
China's proposed tariffs on China or other trading partners might
slow overall global growth and then from that we might
(10:14):
see demand for commodity prices decline, and then that isn't
going to be great for our mining stocks that for
this year already on track for they're worsier since twenty fifteen,
so definitely people are thinking about that and how it's
going to play out for that sector.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Okay, but on the flip side, can I ask you
what stocks may actually do better if Trump does make
good with his threats on tariffs and indeed, what happens
if China strikes back and hem poses their own.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
Still looking at the commodity space, so if China restricts,
say that exports of rare earth in retaliation to the
US's proposed tariffs, then this could benefit a company called Linus.
It's a rares producer and Baron Joey note that I
was reading recently pointed out that it is the only
(11:03):
integrated separator of rares outside of China, so that stock
could certainly benefit from this tit for tat trade war
as political tensions intensify. And then Trump has also been
a very public supporter of the oil and gas sector.
So there's fight a quite a few plays in that
(11:24):
space listed on the Australian Exchange. We've got Woodside, Santos,
Beach Energy and Korn and then any stock listed in
Australia that generates a significant amount of revenue in the
US could benefit with that America first strategy and trying
to keep operations inside the United States. So a company
(11:44):
like Blue Scope Steel it rallied when Trump made comments
about tariffs just a few weeks ago and is a
huge operation already inside the United States. And then a
company like Walley also has big operations in the US.
Oh and them Zip and Block is based in the US.
ZIP is focusing on the US in terms of its strategy.
(12:05):
So companies like that. There's many different ways to play
the Trump theme on the Australian market.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
The Trump card. Could it be one Georgie? Finally, let's
do a little bit of crystal ball gazing. Will the
performance of the ASX two hundred, the strong performance continue
on into twenty twenty five. What's your prediction of where
we're going to see it ending up at the end
of next year.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
Yeah. Many of the people that I've spoken to see
the rally continuing, but they're saying we won't see the
same level of gross or the pace that we've seen
over this year. Now, there's a few things driving that bullishness.
There's Australia's status as a relative safe haven within Asia,
meaning can withstand the political volatility happening between China and
(12:51):
the US and any other trading partners. And then on
the other side, we've got domestic factors like a rate cut,
increased fiscal spending ahead of an election do before May,
and that's boosting growth inside Australia. So then those factors
all together we could see the share market benefit and
the overall economy.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
It is a really complicated puzzle. Georgie, thank you some
great insights there, and thank you for listening to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. On that note, this is our final
episode for twenty twenty four. We'll take a short break
now and be back on jan sixteen for more conversations
with the journalists of Bloomberg's Australian newsroom on the biggest
story shaping our place in global business. This episode was
(13:35):
recorded on the lands of the Rundery and Gatigal people
of the cool and Aniuran nation. It was produced by
Paul Allen and edited by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler.
Sarah Wells is our senior executive editor, and Emma O'Brien
is Bloomberg's head of Media Editorial. Don't Forget to follow
and review the show wherever you get your podcasts, and
sign up for Bloombag's free daily news Setter Australia Briefing.
(13:59):
Go to bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
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