June 18, 2025 • 16 mins
The US has announced a review of the Aukus defense deal, casting fresh doubts on whether the country will follow through on its pact with Australia and the UK.
This week on the podcast, Rebecca Jones asks reporter Ben Westcott to explain what’s behind the review and what the potential consequences are for Australia, the Asia Pacific, and China’s increasing presence in the region.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Well, the future of Australia's most expensive and expansive security agreement.
He's under a cloud this morning, with the Pentagon undertaking
a review of the August Defense Agreement. Even to call
it into question in the form of a review is
a bad signal of the ultimate intention. Now that doesn't
mean that the US will cancel August, but I do
(00:23):
think they are going to look very closely at what
is termed the optimal pathway for ORCUS. It started as
a landmark security pact. Now it's at a crossroads aucus.
The alliance between Australia, the UK and the US was
meant to reshape the balance of power in the Asia Pacific, submarines,
(00:45):
advanced tech and a united front against rising threats. But
behind the bold headlines, cracks are starting to show rising tensions,
political shakeups, and now rumblings from Washington about hitting So
what went wrong and what does the future hold for
this high stakes alliance. Hello, I'm Rebecca Jones, and welcome
(01:10):
to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. This week, I'm joined by
Bloomberg's resident Canberra expert Ben Westcott to break down just
what we know about this review. What is at stake
for Australia and why ultimately it's about more than just submarines. Ben,
welcome back to the podcast. Before we break into orcas,
congratulations are in order. You've just got a new job,
(01:33):
tell me about.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
It, Thanks very much, Beck. Yes, now I'm starting as
Bloomberg's Asia Agricultural reporter from today Morales. So yes, it's
exciting to have a whole new role to jump into.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
And what is the best part about this new job, Ben.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Well, of course it's moving to the great city of Melbourne.
Nothing wrong with my home city of Canberra, but Melbourne's
a wonderful place. I'm looking forward to being there.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Soon Hurrah, and we will welcome you warmly when you
move down next month. For this week, we're talking Orcus.
So I think a good place for us to start
is for those listeners who may not be like you
and I following every twist and turn, is to have
a look at exactly what this Orcus pact is and
(02:15):
how it's evolved.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Sure, absolutely so. Orcus is broken into two pillars. This
was an agreement that was struck in twenty twenty one
between then President Joe Biden, Australia's Scott Morrison and UK's
Boris Johnson. Now in every one of those cases, those
leaders are now going. So we're in an era of
a whole new section of leaders who are trying to
(02:39):
implement a pact they didn't originally agree to. Now, of
those two pillars, the first one is the one that
gets the most attention. That's the one where the US
and the UK will work with Australia to help Canberra
field a fleet of nuclear powers submarines sometime in the
early twenty thirties. Initially it will be a fleet of
US Virginia class submarines that Australia will purchase, and then
(03:03):
the UK, Australia and the US will collaborate on putting
together a fleet of newly designed submarines known as the
SSN Orcas that the UK and the US will build separately,
and that will be a new design for all three nations. Now,
as I said at the start, this has now gone
through multiple leaders in all these countries, and in Australia
(03:25):
and the UK it seems to have survived more or
less intact. The big question, however, was whether or not
Donald Trump would be on board with it. He hasn't
really spoken publicly about Orcus very much. So the big
question was would he support having well continuing the pact
into his second term in office.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
And did this recent US review catch Australia off guard, Ben.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Well, It's hard to say because the Australians say they've
known about it for some time. Deputy Prime Minister and
Defense Minister Richard Miles insists that he's been in the
loop for a long time. But there's no that Certainly
when it hit the public sphere, hit it like a
nuclear powered submarine running through something in the ocean. It
(04:10):
was a real bombshell because it highlighted the potential for
August to not be delivered in its current form, something
that would be a major problem for Australia and a
major vindication for its many critics across the country.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
I want to check on that though, because the UK
has also recently conducted a review and decided that they
wanted to continue with the deal, and noting too that
both the House Republicans in the US and the Democrats
signaled their support for August just last week, it does
beg the question, though, Ben, is the US seriously reconsidering
(04:45):
its commitment to this pact?
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Well? It really depends on who you ask. So some
people point to the fact that the main author of
this review has long been anti August, being a big
critic of the Pact. Therefore, you know, that's something that
people should take quite seriously. He has sway in the
US administration. He is a member of Trump's team, and
(05:09):
therefore this is something that people should look on quite significantly.
On the other hand, there's the fact that this has
not come from Trump himself or even really from Hegseth.
Is that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. This has come from,
you know, not the Secretary of Defense, certainly not the president.
And really in the Trump administration, the person who has
(05:32):
the last say on most of these big decisions is
Donald Trump. So given that it's really until he says
something one way or another in public, a lot of
people won't know how seriously to take this review.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
And we don't know this week as well, because he
was due to meet with Albinizi and that never eventuated. Ben,
What do we know about the Australian government's reaction to
this review? Is there a sense of concern in coming
out of Canberra about what this might mean for US
and more so for China's presence in the region too.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
I think there are a few parts to that. So
I think there will be more concerned now for the
fans of August than there was before since Australia's Prime
minister was unable to get an initial meeting with Donald
Trump during the G seven. The fact that he was
not able to make that aucust case face to face
(06:29):
to Trump, you know, the best way to get a
message across to the US President means that, you know,
those doubts of whether or not it's supported by Trump
will continue to play across the minds of Australians for
some time. But on the other hand, there's going to
be you know, it's not a massive secret. There are
people in the Labor government who are not the biggest
(06:52):
fans of Aucus and probably wouldn't mind a chance to
walk away for it if they could find a convincing argument.
It's a lot of money, it's a lot of uncertainty,
and I'm sure that there will be people behind the
scenes who will be increasingly making the argument that this
is all just too much for the government to be
betting Australia's defense on.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
So if the US government does decide that he wants
to delay or in fact pulls back from the pact.
What would be the cost to Australia in terms of
well status for one, but also money. What is the
ramifications there?
Speaker 2 (07:29):
There would be some questions raised, particularly in terms of money,
given the fact that our Deputy Prime Minister Richard Miles
traveled to the US and handed over a check for
five hundred million dollars earlier this year to help improve
US infrastructure to speed up the delivery of the Virginia
class submarines that Australia was hoping to buy. Now, if
(07:51):
Australia is not getting those submarines, there will be some
questions about why we just gave the US five hundred
million dollars. So whether or not we'd ask for that,
whether or not we would consider it an investment in
a close US ally, who can say. But in terms
of status, mostly the biggest question would be in terms
of our military preparedness. If the US blows a hole
(08:15):
through the Orchist submarine deal, it blows a hole through
all of Australia's military planning. For the last four years,
Australia has really started to remodel its whole military around Orcast.
It started to move away from conventional military forces like
land land attack groups and move towards long range capabilities
(08:39):
like drones, like missiles, all designed to support this submarine fleet.
We've spent money building up infrastructure capabilities, We're looking into
improving port infrastructure. We've even been training Australian sailors pilot
nuclear submarine. So if all that has been effectively for nothing,
and Australia is just left with a fleet of aging
(09:01):
Collins Cuss submarines, there's going to be some big questions
around what's next. Particularly as Richard Miles sort of said
this week, there isn't really a plan B back.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
To the drawing board, and when we come back, what
does America First likely mean for US allies around the
Asia Pacific region. You're listening to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
Welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. You're here with
me Rebecca Jones, and I'm speaking with reporter Ben Westcott
(09:34):
about the US review of the Orchest Pact and what
it could mean for Australia's defense future. Ben. As I
alluded in the introduction, it is not just about subs
is that the US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already
been ruffling feathers in this region, pushing countries to significantly
(09:54):
boost their defense spending across the board. Is it a
signed that Australia's role in the Asia Pacific is changing,
or is it just that Washington's priorities are shifting.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
So in the release that sort of announced this review
of aucas there was a little bit of a reference
to these calls from America for its allies to increase
military spending on their own defense, which many took to
be essentially a slight jab at Australia for refusing to
increase its defense spending by as much as Hegseth and
(10:29):
the Trump administration were hoping for, so just to put
some numbers to it. At his Shangri last speech, Pete
Hegseth called for all of America's allies to increase their
defense spending to as much as five percent of GDP,
and in a specific meeting with Richard Miles, Australia's Defense Minister,
he said that he wanted to see spending in Australia
(10:50):
grow to three point five percent of GDP. Now we're
nowhere near that at this point the government is looking
to increase defense spending to two point four percent of
GDP by the mid twenty thirty, so a long way
away from that. And if we were doing free spending
two three point five percent of GDP, that would be
tens of billions of dollars that we would have to
(11:11):
find from somewhere to pay for capabilities that we haven't
quite decided what they would be yet, and that wouldn't
even solve the massive military retention problem the Australia and
many other militaries around the world have, so in that sense,
a lot of people were very quick to draw a
line between the news of this Orchest review and the
fact that Australia is refusing to spend so far the
(11:33):
amount of money that the US wants on its own
military preparedness. Now, is there a clear link between that,
It's hard to sort of say at this stage, and
there's no doubt that you know, Australia is aying its
way when it comes to August. It's, as I said before,
it's already chipped in five hundred million dollars into US
industrial capabilities. So I think a lot remains to be
(11:56):
seen on exactly how this all plays out. I think
it all comes down at the end of the day
to what President Trump says when he's in the room
with ALBERNIZI and makes the decision. Because really, at the moment,
all tensions on the Middle East, there's not much to
really be said for the Asia Pacific and I'm sure
that will come up later.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And as you say, even if Australia did want to
really knuckle down and increased defense spending, it is more
of a long term goal. Right mid mid twenty thirties,
that's ten years away. These aren't These aren't quick fixes
any of the plan bis that they may be considering. Ben,
how are the other US allies in the Asia Pacific
(12:36):
region feeling about all this?
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Well, the thing is that even if the Trump administration
isn't a big fan of ORCUS, it's clear that a
lot of people across the Inner Pacific are big fans.
New Zealand's conservative government has been looking at the potential
to join the second pillar of UCUS for a while.
And that second pillar of ucas that's the one that
talks a lot about advanced tech capabilities. So while the
(13:02):
first pillar is the new killer submarines and no one
is getting involved in that apart from Australia, the UK
and the US. The second pillar is far more sort
of broad and it's about Australia, the UK and the
US working together on capabilities that are going to be
necessary for the next generation of security, things like artificial intelligence,
(13:22):
quantum computing and advanced weaponry. Now that particular pillar is
open to other allies to take part in, and in
particular they're looking at as I said, New Zealand has
voiced its interest. Japan has also been very clear it's
keen to be a part of that pillar, and so
as South Korea. So these are major US allies in
(13:46):
the region, all of whom would be very keen to
be part of that ORCUS. So even if the Trump
administration pulls back, that doesn't necessarily mean that ORCUS would
be dead, at least not entirely. There could still be
a sort of coalition coming together to work on that
second part of ORCUS.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
And we obviously we would need a different acronym, wouldn't we.
Then final question, given what we know about who called
the review, what is at stake for Australia, Not to
mention the five hundred million Aussie dollars. We've already slapped
down on the counter for ORCUS, the lack of a
plan be or rather the complexity that would be required
(14:27):
to make a pivot. What should we be watching over
the next few weeks in relation to ORCUS.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
I suspect that we will now see a concidered push
by the Australian government to get a new meeting or
potentially a call between Straight and Prime Minister Albernezi and Trump,
because I think just the longer that they don't have
a face to face meeting or at least a phone
called on ORCUS, the longer that uncertainty around exactly what
(14:55):
the US president thinks about the Security Pact, we'll continue
to linger and sort of undermine support for the program.
I think there's two parts to this. That's the first part,
This idea that you know, this refusal to have a
meeting at the G seven due to the need for
Trump to leave, will just continue to fuel anxiety in
(15:16):
Australia over how committed Trump actually is to AUCUST. But
even if you know, the two leaders have a meeting
in a week or in two weeks or a month
and they come out with plenty of backslapping, and you
know everyone's wearing orchest caps. It won't hide the fact
that there are going to be huge questions asked all
the way through this program until the early twenty thirties,
(15:37):
when you know everything working out, the first Virginia class
sub rolls into Western Australia or into the new military
base somewhere on the East coast, and whoever's the Prime
Minister then slaps the bottle of champagne against it because
there are big questions over whether or not the US
can even build these submarines, let alone whether or not
they would want to sell them to Australia, and has
(16:00):
all the critics, including Prime Minister former Prime Minister Malcolm
turnblo keen to point out the US President has the
final say over whether or not Australia gets the submarines.
So we could get to twenty thirty two. It's time
the President of the day, whoever that is, looks at
the deal and says we can't spare them in Australia
doesn't get their submarines, and then where are we.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Ben Wescott, thank you and good luck for the new gig.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Thanks very much, Beck.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
If you found today's conversation insightful. Be sure to follow
the Bloomberg Australia Podcast wherever you listen and check in
for more reading on Orcus, the Asia Pacific and the
latest reporting from Ben Westcott on bloomberg dot com. This
episode was recorded on the traditional lands of the Wondery,
a nuther All people. It was produced by Paul Allen
(16:49):
and edited by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler. I'm Rebecca
Jones and I'll see you next week.
Well, the future of Australia's most expensive and expansive security agreement.
He's under a cloud this morning, with the Pentagon undertaking
a review of the August Defense Agreement. Even to call
it into question in the form of a review is
a bad signal of the ultimate intention. Now that doesn't
mean that the US will cancel August, but I do
(00:23):
think they are going to look very closely at what
is termed the optimal pathway for ORCUS. It started as
a landmark security pact. Now it's at a crossroads aucus.
The alliance between Australia, the UK and the US was
meant to reshape the balance of power in the Asia Pacific, submarines,
(00:45):
advanced tech and a united front against rising threats. But
behind the bold headlines, cracks are starting to show rising tensions,
political shakeups, and now rumblings from Washington about hitting So
what went wrong and what does the future hold for
this high stakes alliance. Hello, I'm Rebecca Jones, and welcome
(01:10):
to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. This week, I'm joined by
Bloomberg's resident Canberra expert Ben Westcott to break down just
what we know about this review. What is at stake
for Australia and why ultimately it's about more than just submarines. Ben,
welcome back to the podcast. Before we break into orcas,
congratulations are in order. You've just got a new job,
(01:33):
tell me about.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
It, Thanks very much, Beck. Yes, now I'm starting as
Bloomberg's Asia Agricultural reporter from today Morales. So yes, it's
exciting to have a whole new role to jump into.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
And what is the best part about this new job, Ben.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Well, of course it's moving to the great city of Melbourne.
Nothing wrong with my home city of Canberra, but Melbourne's
a wonderful place. I'm looking forward to being there.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Soon Hurrah, and we will welcome you warmly when you
move down next month. For this week, we're talking Orcus.
So I think a good place for us to start
is for those listeners who may not be like you
and I following every twist and turn, is to have
a look at exactly what this Orcus pact is and
(02:15):
how it's evolved.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Sure, absolutely so. Orcus is broken into two pillars. This
was an agreement that was struck in twenty twenty one
between then President Joe Biden, Australia's Scott Morrison and UK's
Boris Johnson. Now in every one of those cases, those
leaders are now going. So we're in an era of
a whole new section of leaders who are trying to
(02:39):
implement a pact they didn't originally agree to. Now, of
those two pillars, the first one is the one that
gets the most attention. That's the one where the US
and the UK will work with Australia to help Canberra
field a fleet of nuclear powers submarines sometime in the
early twenty thirties. Initially it will be a fleet of
US Virginia class submarines that Australia will purchase, and then
(03:03):
the UK, Australia and the US will collaborate on putting
together a fleet of newly designed submarines known as the
SSN Orcas that the UK and the US will build separately,
and that will be a new design for all three nations. Now,
as I said at the start, this has now gone
through multiple leaders in all these countries, and in Australia
(03:25):
and the UK it seems to have survived more or
less intact. The big question, however, was whether or not
Donald Trump would be on board with it. He hasn't
really spoken publicly about Orcus very much. So the big
question was would he support having well continuing the pact
into his second term in office.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
And did this recent US review catch Australia off guard, Ben.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Well, It's hard to say because the Australians say they've
known about it for some time. Deputy Prime Minister and
Defense Minister Richard Miles insists that he's been in the
loop for a long time. But there's no that Certainly
when it hit the public sphere, hit it like a
nuclear powered submarine running through something in the ocean. It
(04:10):
was a real bombshell because it highlighted the potential for
August to not be delivered in its current form, something
that would be a major problem for Australia and a
major vindication for its many critics across the country.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
I want to check on that though, because the UK
has also recently conducted a review and decided that they
wanted to continue with the deal, and noting too that
both the House Republicans in the US and the Democrats
signaled their support for August just last week, it does
beg the question, though, Ben, is the US seriously reconsidering
(04:45):
its commitment to this pact?
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Well? It really depends on who you ask. So some
people point to the fact that the main author of
this review has long been anti August, being a big
critic of the Pact. Therefore, you know, that's something that
people should take quite seriously. He has sway in the
US administration. He is a member of Trump's team, and
(05:09):
therefore this is something that people should look on quite significantly.
On the other hand, there's the fact that this has
not come from Trump himself or even really from Hegseth.
Is that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. This has come from,
you know, not the Secretary of Defense, certainly not the president.
And really in the Trump administration, the person who has
(05:32):
the last say on most of these big decisions is
Donald Trump. So given that it's really until he says
something one way or another in public, a lot of
people won't know how seriously to take this review.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
And we don't know this week as well, because he
was due to meet with Albinizi and that never eventuated. Ben,
What do we know about the Australian government's reaction to
this review? Is there a sense of concern in coming
out of Canberra about what this might mean for US
and more so for China's presence in the region too.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
I think there are a few parts to that. So
I think there will be more concerned now for the
fans of August than there was before since Australia's Prime
minister was unable to get an initial meeting with Donald
Trump during the G seven. The fact that he was
not able to make that aucust case face to face
(06:29):
to Trump, you know, the best way to get a
message across to the US President means that, you know,
those doubts of whether or not it's supported by Trump
will continue to play across the minds of Australians for
some time. But on the other hand, there's going to
be you know, it's not a massive secret. There are
people in the Labor government who are not the biggest
(06:52):
fans of Aucus and probably wouldn't mind a chance to
walk away for it if they could find a convincing argument.
It's a lot of money, it's a lot of uncertainty,
and I'm sure that there will be people behind the
scenes who will be increasingly making the argument that this
is all just too much for the government to be
betting Australia's defense on.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
So if the US government does decide that he wants
to delay or in fact pulls back from the pact.
What would be the cost to Australia in terms of
well status for one, but also money. What is the
ramifications there?
Speaker 2 (07:29):
There would be some questions raised, particularly in terms of money,
given the fact that our Deputy Prime Minister Richard Miles
traveled to the US and handed over a check for
five hundred million dollars earlier this year to help improve
US infrastructure to speed up the delivery of the Virginia
class submarines that Australia was hoping to buy. Now, if
(07:51):
Australia is not getting those submarines, there will be some
questions about why we just gave the US five hundred
million dollars. So whether or not we'd ask for that,
whether or not we would consider it an investment in
a close US ally, who can say. But in terms
of status, mostly the biggest question would be in terms
of our military preparedness. If the US blows a hole
(08:15):
through the Orchist submarine deal, it blows a hole through
all of Australia's military planning. For the last four years,
Australia has really started to remodel its whole military around Orcast.
It started to move away from conventional military forces like
land land attack groups and move towards long range capabilities
(08:39):
like drones, like missiles, all designed to support this submarine fleet.
We've spent money building up infrastructure capabilities, We're looking into
improving port infrastructure. We've even been training Australian sailors pilot
nuclear submarine. So if all that has been effectively for nothing,
and Australia is just left with a fleet of aging
(09:01):
Collins Cuss submarines, there's going to be some big questions
around what's next. Particularly as Richard Miles sort of said
this week, there isn't really a plan B back.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
To the drawing board, and when we come back, what
does America First likely mean for US allies around the
Asia Pacific region. You're listening to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
Welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. You're here with
me Rebecca Jones, and I'm speaking with reporter Ben Westcott
(09:34):
about the US review of the Orchest Pact and what
it could mean for Australia's defense future. Ben. As I
alluded in the introduction, it is not just about subs
is that the US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already
been ruffling feathers in this region, pushing countries to significantly
(09:54):
boost their defense spending across the board. Is it a
signed that Australia's role in the Asia Pacific is changing,
or is it just that Washington's priorities are shifting.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
So in the release that sort of announced this review
of aucas there was a little bit of a reference
to these calls from America for its allies to increase
military spending on their own defense, which many took to
be essentially a slight jab at Australia for refusing to
increase its defense spending by as much as Hegseth and
(10:29):
the Trump administration were hoping for, so just to put
some numbers to it. At his Shangri last speech, Pete
Hegseth called for all of America's allies to increase their
defense spending to as much as five percent of GDP,
and in a specific meeting with Richard Miles, Australia's Defense Minister,
he said that he wanted to see spending in Australia
(10:50):
grow to three point five percent of GDP. Now we're
nowhere near that at this point the government is looking
to increase defense spending to two point four percent of
GDP by the mid twenty thirty, so a long way
away from that. And if we were doing free spending
two three point five percent of GDP, that would be
tens of billions of dollars that we would have to
(11:11):
find from somewhere to pay for capabilities that we haven't
quite decided what they would be yet, and that wouldn't
even solve the massive military retention problem the Australia and
many other militaries around the world have, so in that sense,
a lot of people were very quick to draw a
line between the news of this Orchest review and the
fact that Australia is refusing to spend so far the
(11:33):
amount of money that the US wants on its own
military preparedness. Now, is there a clear link between that,
It's hard to sort of say at this stage, and
there's no doubt that you know, Australia is aying its
way when it comes to August. It's, as I said before,
it's already chipped in five hundred million dollars into US
industrial capabilities. So I think a lot remains to be
(11:56):
seen on exactly how this all plays out. I think
it all comes down at the end of the day
to what President Trump says when he's in the room
with ALBERNIZI and makes the decision. Because really, at the moment,
all tensions on the Middle East, there's not much to
really be said for the Asia Pacific and I'm sure
that will come up later.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And as you say, even if Australia did want to
really knuckle down and increased defense spending, it is more
of a long term goal. Right mid mid twenty thirties,
that's ten years away. These aren't These aren't quick fixes
any of the plan bis that they may be considering. Ben,
how are the other US allies in the Asia Pacific
(12:36):
region feeling about all this?
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Well, the thing is that even if the Trump administration
isn't a big fan of ORCUS, it's clear that a
lot of people across the Inner Pacific are big fans.
New Zealand's conservative government has been looking at the potential
to join the second pillar of UCUS for a while.
And that second pillar of ucas that's the one that
talks a lot about advanced tech capabilities. So while the
(13:02):
first pillar is the new killer submarines and no one
is getting involved in that apart from Australia, the UK
and the US. The second pillar is far more sort
of broad and it's about Australia, the UK and the
US working together on capabilities that are going to be
necessary for the next generation of security, things like artificial intelligence,
(13:22):
quantum computing and advanced weaponry. Now that particular pillar is
open to other allies to take part in, and in
particular they're looking at as I said, New Zealand has
voiced its interest. Japan has also been very clear it's
keen to be a part of that pillar, and so
as South Korea. So these are major US allies in
(13:46):
the region, all of whom would be very keen to
be part of that ORCUS. So even if the Trump
administration pulls back, that doesn't necessarily mean that ORCUS would
be dead, at least not entirely. There could still be
a sort of coalition coming together to work on that
second part of ORCUS.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
And we obviously we would need a different acronym, wouldn't we.
Then final question, given what we know about who called
the review, what is at stake for Australia, Not to
mention the five hundred million Aussie dollars. We've already slapped
down on the counter for ORCUS, the lack of a
plan be or rather the complexity that would be required
(14:27):
to make a pivot. What should we be watching over
the next few weeks in relation to ORCUS.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
I suspect that we will now see a concidered push
by the Australian government to get a new meeting or
potentially a call between Straight and Prime Minister Albernezi and Trump,
because I think just the longer that they don't have
a face to face meeting or at least a phone
called on ORCUS, the longer that uncertainty around exactly what
(14:55):
the US president thinks about the Security Pact, we'll continue
to linger and sort of undermine support for the program.
I think there's two parts to this. That's the first part,
This idea that you know, this refusal to have a
meeting at the G seven due to the need for
Trump to leave, will just continue to fuel anxiety in
(15:16):
Australia over how committed Trump actually is to AUCUST. But
even if you know, the two leaders have a meeting
in a week or in two weeks or a month
and they come out with plenty of backslapping, and you
know everyone's wearing orchest caps. It won't hide the fact
that there are going to be huge questions asked all
the way through this program until the early twenty thirties,
(15:37):
when you know everything working out, the first Virginia class
sub rolls into Western Australia or into the new military
base somewhere on the East coast, and whoever's the Prime
Minister then slaps the bottle of champagne against it because
there are big questions over whether or not the US
can even build these submarines, let alone whether or not
they would want to sell them to Australia, and has
(16:00):
all the critics, including Prime Minister former Prime Minister Malcolm
turnblo keen to point out the US President has the
final say over whether or not Australia gets the submarines.
So we could get to twenty thirty two. It's time
the President of the day, whoever that is, looks at
the deal and says we can't spare them in Australia
doesn't get their submarines, and then where are we.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Ben Wescott, thank you and good luck for the new gig.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Thanks very much, Beck.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
If you found today's conversation insightful. Be sure to follow
the Bloomberg Australia Podcast wherever you listen and check in
for more reading on Orcus, the Asia Pacific and the
latest reporting from Ben Westcott on bloomberg dot com. This
episode was recorded on the traditional lands of the Wondery,
a nuther All people. It was produced by Paul Allen
(16:49):
and edited by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler. I'm Rebecca
Jones and I'll see you next week.
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