All Episodes

February 5, 2025 15 mins

Few of the world’s financial markets were left unscathed by the fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff war this week, with Australia’s being among the hardest hit. Host Chris Bourke and Bloomberg cross-asset reporter Richard Henderson take a look at what this new bout of volatility means for stocks, crypto and one of our most hotly-anticipated rate decisions in years.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Volatility grips Wall Street is tariff uncertainty takes center stage.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Canada is very tough. They're very, very tough to do
business with, and we can't let them take advantage of
the US. I think people are going to be truly
shocked at the pricing they're going to see on the cars.
I'm a lumber, on the clothes, I'm a food. This
is going to be a mess.

Speaker 3 (00:23):
It's Donald Trump's world and we're all living in it.
The chaos that's spread in the wake of the US
president's tariff drama has left few global markets untouched, including Australia's.
So What Now. Hello, I'm Chris Burke and welcome to
the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. What a week it's been for
global markets. One day, the trade war's on, next day, wait,

(00:47):
trade wars on hold, or maybe it isn't. It's been
frankly exhausting keeping pace with events. So I think we
need Richard Henderson, our cross Hasset reporter based in Melbourne,
to help us calmly unpack just what is going on
and what impact we can expect on our own markets
in the coming weeks. Richard, Welcome to the podcast. Thank you, Chris,

(01:10):
so let's quickly recap. Over the weekend, Trump confirmed he
was slapping twenty five percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada
and ten percent on China. On Tuesday morning, our time,
he struck deals with Mexico and Canada to delay those
tariffs by a month after both countries failed to retaliate,
and then later that afternoon, the China tariffs went ahead
as threatened, and China swiftly retaliated. So how did all

(01:33):
of this impact markets?

Speaker 1 (01:35):
So over the weekend we saw a big drop in crypto.
Crypto of course trades twenty four hours a day, whereas
the stock market is only open during weekdays, and that
was a real indication that the stock market would really
struggle when it opened on the Monday, and that's exactly
what happened. We saw that in Asia pretty powerfully. Australian
shares dropped meaningfully. In the US obviously is much later

(02:01):
in the Australian day. In the US stocks fell, but
then they started to recover, especially when Trump finally came
out and offered this thirty day reprieve on the tariffs
on Mexico and Canada. So that's basically what happened in market.
There was a big bid for haven assets things like
gold and the US dollar in particular, So we really

(02:23):
get a sensor that's where investors might like to park
their money while we see some of this uncertainty.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
Yeah, I really do remember walking into the office Monday
morning and the screens were a sea of red. Look,
but what were the main sectors on the Australian share
market that were hit in that initial reaction, which I
guess tells us what sectors investors think are most vulnerable
to a trade what.

Speaker 1 (02:49):
Tellingly, all sectors in the AUSSI stock market fell on Monday,
and that's a sign of a broad based sell off.
Investors are really wanting to rain in risk. They see
this as a key risk for the year. The two
big ones in Australia are the material sector that has
all the big mining companies like BHP, and also the
financials sector that's all our big banks together. Those sectors

(03:13):
alone make up half the Australian stock market, give or take,
and they were among the hardest hit. So that really
tells us that investors were very worried about tariffs. The
risk of a global trade war is real, and we
saw equities sell off meaningfully in Australia because of that.

Speaker 3 (03:30):
You mentioned crypto before. I know you right about crypto
quite a bit. We know that cryptocurrencies can be volatile
at the best of times, so I often edit markets
stories with bitcoin price price section in and have to
change it several times before publication, which can be very annoying.
But look, why was the response in crypto so severe

(03:54):
this time round?

Speaker 1 (03:55):
Crypto is it was described by Goldman Sachs once as
the ultimate risk asset. You know, we see crypto volatility.
It's always one of the most volatile assets. It also
trades all the time, so it's really handy for investors
to use crypto to express a view about what's happening
in the global economy or global markets when other markets

(04:17):
like the stock market is closed. So that's why we
saw such intense selling over the weekends. In Ethereum, for instance,
that's the second largest coin by market value. There was
a drop of as much as twenty six percent on
that Sunday in the US. So that really speaks to
the magnitude of selling and volatility and how investors use

(04:41):
crypto to trade through some of this uncertainty and use flow.

Speaker 3 (04:47):
So this obviously remains a very fluid situation. It does
feel like one of those kind of anything can happen
moments and markets. But what does all this uncertainty mean
at the end of the day, all this whiplash and
flip flops, what does it mean for stock markets going ahead?

Speaker 1 (05:07):
The bottom line is more uncertainty means more volatility. So
I think investors when they saw these twenty five percent
tariffs on Canada and Mexico, they realize that the trade
war is real and they had to respond these aren't
empty threats. But then you get this thirty day reprieve

(05:28):
for both and both countries are trying to address some
of Trump's concerns about border security, about the drug trade,
fentanyl in particular coming into the United States, creating lots
of social issues, health issues, and so you get a
sense that potentially this is Donald Trump the art of
the Deal, looking to use the threat of tariffs to

(05:49):
gain some sort of goal policy goal and finding some
success in that. And so investors are court in the middle.
They have to respond, They have to price in the
risk of tarraff's becoming real. But then they have to
realize that maybe this is Trump, trump bluster, Trump trying
to get something from these countries and finding we can say,

(06:10):
some early success in that.

Speaker 3 (06:12):
Yeah, that's that's a really key point. The motivation of
Trump and the US administration still kind of remains unclear
at this stage. But there's obviously been a lot of
speculation ever since Trump won the US election really about
how his policies, including tariffs, will hit the global economy.

(06:34):
So now we're seeing those policies being enacted starting to
be enacted. Is it too early to really gauge what
these tariffs are going to mean for inflation?

Speaker 1 (06:44):
This is one of the biggest questions facing investors this year.
Will tariffs come into force, first of all, and if
they do, even at a reduced level of some of these,
you know, twenty five percent, et cetera, alway, seeing will
they be inflationary? And there's a lot of uncertainty here.
The broad consensus thinking is, yes, tariffs are naturally inflationary,

(07:07):
and slapping twenty five percent tariffs on you know, your
two border countries, Mexico and Canada, will damage the US economy,
will hurt US consumers.

Speaker 3 (07:17):
There was a.

Speaker 1 (07:18):
Wonderful piece of analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics,
and they basically said these tariffs that have been that
have been announced would impact the average US household what
they call the typical US household, to the tune of
twelve hundred US dollars per year. So if you think

(07:40):
about that money, that's less money circulating in the economy
because it's being sucked up by the effect of these tariffs.
That's less money for corporate revenues corporate profits, and that
means in a stock market sense, you know, companies listed
in the stock market are going to be facing a
hit to revenue and profit that should or else being equal,

(08:02):
impact their share price, reduce their share price. And so
we're starting to see some of that analysis from the
investment banks that is starting to say, okay, well, if
tariffs really do come in, then it will hurt the
stock market.

Speaker 3 (08:15):
And that's that's a really important point because while we've
been talking about the Australian share market, let's not forget
we're all invested in our super funds, and our super
funds have just as much exposure to international shares as
they as they do as domestic ones. But look, let's
not forget also that these more these more severe tariffs

(08:36):
against Mexico and Canada of twenty five percent. They're only
on hold for the time being that they're still apparently
going to be enacted in less than a month's time.
So what is that going to mean for global markets
if they do become enacted. Are we looking at a
situation where where the kind of action we've seen this
week is going to is going to be the norm

(08:56):
where markets are essentially at the whim of trial social
media posts and how how often he changes his mind
in one particular day.

Speaker 1 (09:06):
Basically, yeah, if you're an investor, you have to now
be reactive to that. You're not going to base your
whole thesis on a Trump tweet, probably not right, but
you are going to have to say, well, okay, there
is a likelihood. It might not be fifty percent, maybe
it's twenty percent or thirty percent. There is a likelihood
that what Trump is saying he will do and we
have seen that in the past, and so if you're

(09:29):
an investor, you really do have to take it into accounts.
The broader point on the global economy, what do tariffs do.
A tit for tat trade war is bad for growth.
It will hurt the economies of the United States, Canada, Mexico, China.
If we see tariffs as announced come into force, and
so that's really something to be keeping in mind. That

(09:52):
will have a flow and effect for asset prices. If
we're talking stocks, that will have potentially an impact on
US inflation, which then will reverberate throughout the world. That
will have an impact on currency markets, leading to all
else being equal, a stronger dollar, a weaker Australian dollar.
So we're having to sort of pass through these effects

(10:14):
and that's a real big challenge for investors this year
because they're quite complicated, they're all interconnected.

Speaker 3 (10:20):
And when we come back, how much attention is the
Reserve Bank of Australia paying to this market turmoil. Welcome
back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I'm Chris Burke and
today I'm talking to Richard Henderson, Bloomberg's crossasset reporter based
in Melbourne. Rich Australia has a very important rate decision

(10:44):
coming up in less than two weeks where we could
very well get our first rate cut since the pandemic.
Will the RBA be taking all this tariff's drama into
account when it hands down that decision on February eighteenth.

Speaker 1 (10:58):
That's a really good question. I think on balance, no,
they'll be keeping an eye on things. Obviously, a tariff
war trade war will have significant impact on the Australian economy.
We have this amazing reliance on China. If China's economy
starts to contract, and we're seeing such big pressures economic

(11:20):
pressures within China over the last few years, if tariffs
really add to that and lead to less demand for
Australian goods like iron orsay by China, then that will
have an impact on the Australian economy that the RBA
will have to respond to. At the point now though,
I think the RBA will be really wanting to take

(11:41):
a wait and see approach, so I don't think that
will have any meaningful effect on the right decision coming up.

Speaker 3 (11:48):
So Homo own As may still potentially get some relief
on February eighteenth, but we we'll just have to wait
and see there. But you know what it's like, investors
will wore over every word on that statement that is
released on February eighteenth, and I'd be I would be
surprised if they didn't at least mention the kind of

(12:12):
action that we've been seeing.

Speaker 1 (12:14):
I think so, yeah, there's a history of the IBA
flicking to an idea like that to say we're keeping
an eye on so and so development in the global economy.
So I think that would not be out of the
ordinary to see that, but also to say we're not
responding to it at this point. And I think we
also need to keep in mind that, you know, Trump

(12:36):
is different from other US administrations, US presidents, and you
have to respond to what Trump does, not what he says.
And so even though we're seeing this twenty five percent
tarifon Mexico and Canada, we do now have that reprieve
and so we could see some sort of deal emerge
in that thirty day window that then would newter these

(12:59):
potential tariffs. And so that's what the IRBA and global
investors really have to respond to, what actually happens, not
what might happen.

Speaker 3 (13:08):
Yeah, really good points. So we've been taking a look
at the largely negative effects on markets from the start
of this trade war. That's not the full story, right,
I Mean, what asset classes out there could actually or
are actually benefiting from this volatility?

Speaker 1 (13:24):
The knee jerk reaction into defensive assets was very much
on display this week. We saw gold touch a new
record high. We saw an index of the dollar basically
the dollar, the US dollar against the basket of currencies
rise sharply. It touched briefly the highest level since twenty
twenty two. So they're are two of the most common

(13:48):
haven assets, so there could be more more in demand
for those if we do see more action on the tariffront.
And then there's things within the stock market, you know,
if we're talking about the US stock market, themes that
endure in the longer term, things that investors are really
positioning for. Artificial intelligence is a good example, although if

(14:09):
you think about companies like Nvidia, they're very richly priced
right now, so they're quite vulnerable to a sell off.
But there might be other companies within that theme investors
like that could be insulated from some of the broader
markets selloff in the stock market relating to tariffs.

Speaker 3 (14:27):
So I guess the message is hold tight and wait
and see.

Speaker 1 (14:32):
Get used to volatility. I think is one of the
key takeaways here, which we sort of expected from Trump,
but it is one that investors will have to take
to heart.

Speaker 3 (14:41):
Thanks Rich and Thank you for listening to the Bloomberg
Australia podcast. I'm Chris Burke. This episode was recorded on
the lands of the Warunjuri people of the Kulan nation.
It was produced by Paul Allen and edited by Rebecca
Jones and Ainsley Chandler. Don't forget to follow and review
the show wherever you get your podcasts, and sign up
to Bloomberg's free daily newsletter, Australia Briefing. Go to bloomberg

(15:04):
dot com to subscribe.
Advertise With Us

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know
Dateline NBC

Dateline NBC

Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.

Connect

© 2025 iHeartMedia, Inc.