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January 22, 2025 15 mins

Australia has an election due by May, stubbornly high interest rates, and twin cost-of-living, and housing affordability crises. Away from home, a second Trump administration begins and China’s economy is struggling. Rebecca Jones asks economist James McIntyre from Bloomberg Economics, what this all means for Australia in the year ahead.

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
While many Australians grappled to the cost of living in
twenty twenty four, many experts expect the new year to
bring interest rate cuts and the further easing of inflation.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
We're pretty confident that the worst of the inflation challenge
is behind us, but we're not complacent about that. This
year Australians will have an opportunity to remove a weak
and incompetent government that has sent our country backwards. Hello
and welcome to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I'm Rebecca Jones.
On one side of the globe, a new president was

(00:32):
sworn in this week, and over here we're still swimming
off our festive indulgences and wrapping up summer holidays, but
not for long, because it is time to get a
jump on what's likely to be a blockbuster year for
Australian economics. To help me get the low down, I'd
like to welcome economist James McIntyre from Bloomberg Economics to

(00:52):
the podcast. James, thanks for joining me.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
Thank you very much for having me.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
Now.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
Twenty twenty four it felt a bit to me like
if the economy was a person, it would have been
holding its breath for the entire year. When I think back,
I think of grumpy consumers just like waiting with baited
breath for the RBA to cut rates. Let's rip the
band aid nice and early. What does the year look

(01:17):
like ahead for rates? Are we turning a corner?

Speaker 3 (01:21):
Well, look, we think so. We think that we've moved
from being a year of everyone trying to just stay
alive till twenty five to now being here and looking
forward to all right, well, it's time for things to
get a little bit, a little bit better, a little
bit easier. So we've seen the economy really struggle last year.

(01:42):
We're thinking there's going to be much stronger this year.
But the policy is going to have a big role there.
So we're seeing the situation where the RBA is moving
from will they cut territory to well when and how much.
Our view is that, you know, when we put out
our outlook for twenty twenty five was that we could

(02:03):
see up to one hundred basis points of interest rate
cuts this year, beginning from the first quarter with the
RBA coming back and starting the year with twenty five
basis points of easing. But you know, at market surprising
in a slightly less ambitious rate cut profile from the
RBA so far. And you know, as we sit here,

(02:25):
especially after having just seen some strong jobs number, you know,
there's nothing to indicate that the RBA isn't going to cut,
but it does suggest that they don't need to rush
into to begin twenty twenty five, rushing out of the gates.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
The job started was okay last Thursday.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
Right.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
I'm interested in the concept and this is something that
I've heard you talk about before, of the misery index,
and just reflecting now, I can't get it out of
my head. On twenty twenty four, you know about how
unhappy people were at the cost of living and buying,
just like basic things at the supermarket, the cost of
your weekly shop. What is the misery index telling you, James,

(03:06):
about what's ahead? And first of all, back up a bit.
What is the misery index?

Speaker 3 (03:13):
Ah, the misery index, So economists we like to put
a couple of numbers together and tie a big ribbon
around it and make it into an interesting thing. But
the misery index is a combination of the unemployment rate
and the inflation rate. And so when we think back
to periods and economic history when there was stagflationary environments
when inflation was high and growth was weak and unemployment

(03:33):
was high, it was a very very bad times for
households and consumers. Living standards going backwards and you're not
being able to get a pay rise to catch up
with the rising cost of goods, and so that's pretty miserable.
And so when we combine the unemployment rate and the
inflation rate into this thing called a misery index, well,
when we look at Australia, things have improved a lot

(03:55):
on that measure. The unemployment rates very very low, near
record low. Well sorry, it's at four now. It's really
hasn't moved much in a year. And as well below
what the RBA thinks full employment is and inflation the
headline measures have come back down to inside the RBA's
target band. So why aren't things great? Why are consumers

(04:15):
still so grumpy? Well, it's because it's just not as
simple as the two things combined together. There's other things
that really hit households hard. And that's where some other
economists did an adaptation and update a misery index two
point zero where they added in the policy rate and
the per capita GDP growth. Because you want the economy

(04:37):
not just to grow, you want it to grow for you.
And so that's where per capita GDP is important. And
when we look at those things, Australia's had two years
of per person GDP declining. Even though the economy grew
per person, it didn't grow so much because we had
that strong population growth coming through. And the RBA has
kept interest rates very high for a longer than usual time.

(04:59):
And so when we add those two things, and it's
still a very miserable time for consumers. But our projection
when we're forecasting and looking at the year ahead is
that with interest rates coming down and with the economy
finally starting to find a better footing, with population growth
easing but growth starting to pick up a bit, we
should see that misery index that adapted one things getting

(05:22):
a little bit better on that front, Consumers hopefully as
the year rolls on, holding their heads a bit higher. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (05:28):
I do hope so too. And let's stick with consumers
just for a minute. And you know, looking back on
where growth has come from in twenty twenty four, government
spending has played a big role there, right, Like consumers
spending on the other hand, has been a weak spot.
Are we going to see that shift in twenty twenty
five or are you projecting more of the same.

Speaker 3 (05:49):
Well, no, we're projecting a couple of I guess baton
changes or big shifts in the in the sources and
the style of economic growth. So we had seen last
year in twenty twenty four, public demand was one of
the key drivers of growth and on net with sluggish
consumers bit of weakness and mining demand bit of net exports.

(06:10):
Private sector demand was an offsetting weakness and the economy
is soft overall. This year we're seeing private demand step up,
but in order to get there, we need something else
to happen. So within consumer spending, and we've got migration easing.
The government put a lot of measures in to dial
back the rapid pace of popular of migration, and that's

(06:33):
going to slow population growth. But that migration was boosting
consumer spending, but per person consumer spending was soft, and
so we need to see consumers individually open their wallets
this year in order for that transition, that baton change
from public to private to come through. So we need
that bat and change within households from more consumers to

(06:55):
consumers spending more. That's going to be key and in
order to get that, we think that the RBA is
going to need to be a little bit more helpful
in easing off the monetary policy breaks and supporting spending
this year.

Speaker 2 (07:09):
Yes, quite right, those high interest rates. You know, given
that we're about to have an election, how should we
be thinking about this inflation pain that voters across the
board are experiencing. Is this just automatically translated into electoral
pain for the government or is it more complicated than that.

Speaker 3 (07:29):
Well, I mean it's always more complicated, but it is
something that we've seen across the world over the course
of the elections last year, and it's going to be
something that I think the government here would be very
worried about. So worried that, you know, the measures that
they put in place at the state level and the
federal level last year, some of them we think there's

(07:51):
a good chance, especially on electricity subsidies, that they might
be extended before the election data's announced. We do have
a final budget due from the government in March, and
so yeah, we could see that you're trying to make
sure that they're reminding consumers, you know, that they are

(08:12):
trying to do their best to help we could see
some additional measures there to help consumers with their pain
and hopefully head off at the pass consumers taking that
pain out at the ballot box.

Speaker 2 (08:27):
I want to ask you now a bit about the
external environment, that is, everything that happens outside of Australia
that affects our economy. Inside Australia, we've got a second
Trump administration. As I mentioned at the start, China's economy
it's struggling. We've got a strong US dollar and that's
scene our own dollar pushed towards sixty US sins. We

(08:50):
are a couple of months past the US election now right,
what is the latest on how Donald Trumps second in
the Oval office is going to impact Australia's economy. Is
that the key nation that we should be focused on,
at least for twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
Well, I think that directly, we probably aren't that much
under the gun as some other economies might be. So,
you know, we've heard since the election or during the
election and then following Donald Trump's victory, we've heard a
lot about tariff's being imposed, especially on other countries like

(09:33):
China and those countries that have large trade surpluses with
the US. That's not necessarily Australia's position. We're probably what
the US would like. We buy more from the US,
we have a trade deficit with the US. We buy
more from the US than the US buyers from US.
We're the kind of customer that would make Donald Trump happy,

(09:57):
and so we're not likely to be targeted for taraf
US on our own the way some of those other
countries are. But we still have a little bit to
worry about. And that's because countries like China and Japan
there are some of Australia's major export destinations and so
if we do have measures from the US that do

(10:19):
impact those economies or that could flow through in an
indirect way to our exports. And so what we really
need to worry about there is that, you know, well
not so much what China does, sorry, what the US
does to China or Japan, but how China and Japan respond.
If those governments do things that boost domestic demand, you know,

(10:40):
that might help them demand a bit more exports from
the US and narrow that trade their trade deficits. That way,
some of that demand boost might flow over into more
export demand from US. So we want to be looking
for signs that policymakers in Japan and China and in
some of these other countries are delivering stimulus to their economies,

(11:01):
because that could be something make or break for whether
those countries are the impacts from the US on them
spill over to us.

Speaker 2 (11:09):
And when we come back, James tells us when he
thinks we'll finally see some relief for Australia's housing crisis.

Speaker 1 (11:21):
We always do see corrections, but you know, every cycle
we see the thirty percenters come out and say it's
going to dropway by that amountain it never does. I mean,
we do see declines in Australian property prices, but they
do tend to be quite mild. I mean, we are
a country that does welcome immigration, we're not very good
at building, we love living in big homes, so you know,
all of those things do make it structurally your market

(11:43):
that does remain very expensive.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
And Welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. I'm Rebecca
Jones here today talking to James McIntyre from Bloomberg Economics
on what's ahead for twenty twenty five. We just heard
they're from Ray White, Chief Economist narrator Connesby on the
state of Australia's housing market. And look, James, I can't
tell you hand on heart that I haven't been one

(12:06):
of those people that's sat on my phone scrolling the
real estate apps thinking, gosh, so expensive, maybe it really
could fall thirty percent. But I'm not alone, right Like,
it does feel like no discussion can occur in Australia
without at least one person mentioning the state of the
housing market. What's ahead for us?

Speaker 3 (12:28):
Well that look, there is a little bit less pain,
and some of that's because of some wages and income
gain for households. That's going to be something that is
really important when we think about the affordability equation for housing.
On the rental side of things, the pain for renters,
it has been really acute the last couple of years.

(12:50):
But what we've been seeing is we've been seeing a
response to that. People have been taking on flatmates, staying
at home or or not moving out as soon as
they wanted before, and maybe deciding that they don't need
a second bedroom because we're all working back in the
office instead of it home. And all of those changes
are resulting in a little bit of demand coming out

(13:13):
of the rental market, and so rent rises are likely
to continue to sort of peter out and come back
in line with income gains over the course of this year.
But when we go to housing markets and when we
think about prices, well, what's really been a There's been
pain in some cities and not a lot in others
in twenty twenty four, and maybe some of that might

(13:34):
shift this year. So smaller capitals like Brisbane, Perth Adelaide,
they have had extremely strong house price gains over the
last couple of years. They were more affordable, and so
households with those interest rate cuts or sorry interest rate
cuts that we did have, and even with interest rate rises,
could still afford to bid up the price of dwellings there,

(13:57):
whereas Sydney and Melbourne, affordability was a real constraint in
those capitals. Sydney prices rose only modestly. Melbourne we had
very weak conditions there and some declines. But when we
look at the year ahead, it might be slightly better
on the price front, especially for those bigger cities. Myself
and my colleagues at Bloomberg Intelligence do a lot of

(14:19):
modeling of affordability and housing markets, and our estimate is
that for every twenty five base points cut from the
RBA translates into a two percent improvement in borrowing capacity
for households, and you know we should we could in
some of those along with wage increases and slightly less inflation.
See a little bit of improvement, and maybe some of

(14:41):
those increases in capacity to pay winding their way into
prices for Sydney and Melbourne this year, and a little
bit of an improvement in conditions there glad to see.

Speaker 2 (14:52):
So to recap, We've got a rake Cup coming this year,
but it might not be as fast as we'd all like.
Trump's back in charge, but we also need to be
keeping an eye on what happens with both Japan and China.
The upcoming Aussie election could be potentially decided on inflation,
although according to the Misery Index, we're not as glum
as we once were, and house prices and rental affordability

(15:14):
well both showing some signs of improvement. James, maybe this
is going to be our year. Thank you for joining
me and thank you for listening to the Bloomberg Australia podcast.
I'm Rebecca Jones. This episode was recorded on the Lands
of the Wrundery and Gadigal, people of the call Enemy
or Nation. It was produced by Paul Allen and edited

(15:35):
by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler. Don't forget to follow
and review the show wherever you get your podcasts, and
sign up for Bloomberg's free daily Newstter Australia Briefing. Go
to bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
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