August 27, 2025 • 22 mins
In this edition of Into The Smoke, Evan previews the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, including which drivers could miss the cut to the Round of 12 in 3 weeks.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Drivers, start your eg Let's go Into the Smoke with
Evan Ludwig and welcome back again to another edition of
Into the Smoke podcast edition right here on the Sports
(00:22):
Radio FNZ podcasting Network. I'm your host, as always, Evan
Smoke Ludwig, and in today's edition of Into the Smoke,
not gonna talk as much about the race that happened
at Daytona this past weekend, but it's a full on
playoff preview foard the round of sixteen, and like I
just said, I'm not gonna spend that much time on
the race that happened this past weekend at Daytona, but
(00:44):
I do want to mention and talk a little bit
about what happened, and that was the fact that Ryan
Blaney is able to get his second win of the year,
and the fact that there were no new winners that
came from that race, which meant that both Alex Bowman
and Tyler Redick were able to make the racist by
Alex Bowman being caught up Indie Big One in the
(01:05):
first stage and Tyler Reddick basically trying to limp Palm
to a finish after getting involved in the rec in
stage one as well. So no new winners means pretty
much status quo from what we were last week. No
shockers or anything like that. But it did come close
because Ryan Blaney was able to outlast Daniel Sorez, Justin Haley,
Cole Custer, Eric Jones, and a couple of otters, a
(01:26):
myriad of utters, if I want to be honest, to
win the race. And he went from thirteenth to first.
And that was big because if it wasn't for Ryan Blaney,
Alex Bowman would have been out of the playoffs and
we would have had a last second buzzer beater to
get someone else in. So big for Ryan Blaney, big
for Alex Bowman. Also, do want to mention, and we'll
get into this a little bit more later on the
(01:48):
fact that Ryan Blaney has been inconsistent this year. He's
had a lot of really bad luck early on in
the season when he had a lot of good runs.
But I do take notice of this. This is the
fact that ever since his crash at Sonoma, he has
not finished outside the top ten. He has finished eighth, seventh, fourth, six, third,
and first respectively at these races, and his average finish
(02:12):
has climbed up by two points two positions ever since
the record SONMA. So that's something that I think is
definitely something you need to keep an eye on, especially
if you're picking someone to win a championship. I wouldn't
be shocked if Ryan Blaney wins a championship, especially with
Pinske's dominates, But if it's going to come from anyone
in Pinske this year, I think it would be Ryan Blaney.
(02:32):
And I'll also say this, for as much as I've
given crap on NASCAR for the way that the Gen
seven has raced on the super speedways, it's not perfect,
but I felt like Saturday's race at Daytona was a
another stride in the right direction. And that follows that's
now two straight weeks where we've had, in my opinion,
(02:53):
strides in the right direction for both to race at
the short track at Richmond and this past weekend the
race at Daytona. I don't think it's fixing everything, like
we're not getting the ballsy moves that we see in
the Infinity race with those old cars. I don't know
if we're ever going to get to that point, but
I do think they might have hit something of a
(03:13):
formula when it comes to shortening the stages to make
sure that the cars don't save anything like that. And
I don't know it just it was a really good race.
And I hope that when they go to Talladeggen in
a couple of weeks they can replicate that run at
Daytona moving forward. So that's something to keep an eye on.
But want to give credit to NASCAR for the job
(03:34):
that they did and some of the improvements hopefully that
continue to be made to make the races better. And
I'll also give NASCAR an Ada boy for no cars
getting off the ground this past weekend. I know that's
a low bar to climb, but considering the fact that
the all the changes that they were trying to make
to make sure the cars stayed on the ground, the
fact that they Toona last year, it happened they Tona
(03:54):
this year, it happened with Ryan Priest, I count that
as a win. Hopefully that continues, and hope it's a
streak that continues year over year over year moving forward.
And with all that being said, let's get into the
meat and potatoes of this show, and that is the
preview of the NASCAR Playoffs, specifically the Round of sixteen.
All right, now, the Round of sixteen. Little bit of
(04:17):
a different round compared to what it has been the
past couple of years, but not too different when it
comes to the tracks it to racing at of course,
as always, it's a Labor Day weekend, so the playoffs
will start out with the seven five hundred at Darlington Raceway.
That's about as tough as a race as you could
get to start out the playoffs, and I love it
for that. I think it's gonna be a lot of fun.
(04:39):
But it's one of those races where you have an
idea of where you think who's gonna win, but of
course it changes in the last moment. Prime example being
the race earlier this year. William Byron dominated the race.
He led I think over two hundred and twenty laps
and then kind of got off sequence on pit Road,
didn't pit at the right time. Tyler Rede took the lead,
(05:00):
you think he's gonna win, but a late caution comes out,
Denny Hamlin's able to win the race off pitt Road
and then he wins the race. So it's this is
one of those races where it looks like one guy could.
It's kind of like the Cooke six hundred in a
way where it looks like one guy can completely dominate
a certain portion of the race and you think, oh,
he's got them all. He is going to cruise the victory,
and then something happens and then boom, he's ever lapped down.
(05:22):
He kind of fizzles out a little bit into the
back half of the top ten, someone else takes over.
And that's the case at every Darlington race. It's not
just like the Koke six hundred where it's six hundred miles.
It's like that for every Darlington race. And that was
for the four hundred miler. Add on another one hundred
miles to this race and you got yourself a five
hundred miler three hundred and sixty seven laps. It doesn't
(05:42):
sound like much, but three hundred and sixty seven laps
had a track like Darlington, it really takes on the
punch once you get into the middle portion of that race.
I'd argue at times that it's longer than the Cooke
six hundred the way it feels, So, I mean, that's
gonna be about as tough of a race to start
things out with, especially in the heat of South Carolina
(06:03):
in the middle of the afternoon into the evening and
a night and the big new race here in a
round of sixteen to big change that is is the
fact that for the first time ever, the Worldwide Technology
Raceway aka Gateway for a U old head will be
hosting a playoff race. And I think this is big
and I think it makes a lot of sense. Gateways
(06:24):
had a great attendance for each race that NASCAR has
had since they came back to to track in twenty
twenty two. And let's be honest, you know, for a
NASCAR they're competing against the NFL. Next Sunday is going
to be the first regular season game in football they
go to a market that doesn't have an NFL team.
That makes perfect sense. Keep the tickets, keep things going,
(06:46):
and plus it also helps for NASCAR the fact that
the Cardinals aren't doing so well. In fact, they've had
some of the worst attendance recently that they've had in
a long time. And that's saying something for those who
don't know. Saint Louis loves the Cardinals, So for fans
not to be attending Cardinals games, that's saying a lot.
So for NASCAR, they might have hit a home run
here by having the race at Gateway in the Round
(07:08):
of sixteen to the playoffs. I look at this as
a very interesting event and something that you can't really
take a ton from because the race that you had
at Gateway the past couple of years was in late
May early June. I know, it's still kind of hot
in September, especially in a place like Saint Louis depending
on the situation, but different time of the year, so
on and so forth. That type of stuff. It's gonna
(07:29):
throw curveball for a lot of these teams. And what's
gonna throw curveball for a lot of these teams is
the fact that Gateway is notoriously bad, especially with this
car owned the break roaders, the long straightaways and then
the hard breaking. It wears these breaks out. So I
wouldn't be shocked if we see a couple of break
roaders fail with some of the drivers that are in
(07:50):
or even out of the playoffs at this point, So
don't be shocked by that. So that's kind of a
curveball with this race in this round. And then finally,
the Round of sixteen concludes where it has conclude for
the past couple of years, and that is at Bristol
Motor Speedway. And what I'm interested in to see is
can we see tire wear similar to what we saw
Richmond at Bristol. And the reason I ask that is
(08:12):
just because it's a short track doesn't mean it's going
to be exactly the same. You're going from asphalt to concrete,
and you're also going from a track that has pretty
small banking all things considered, to the track with the
most banking in the entire circuit at Bristol, So that's
something that's going to be very interesting to look at.
And it's a night race too, so a lot to
(08:33):
look forward to if you're a racing fan. Two of
the three races in this round are night races seven
five hundred. It goes throughout the whole entire evening into tonight.
But definitely a lot to look forward to, I think,
in all three of these races, and they're very intriguing.
Nothing that really looks as a complete wild card, but
it also is a fair task. You get yourself from
(08:54):
the round of sixteen to the round of twelve. And
now that we've previewed the tracks, let's look at the
point standings heading in to the playoffs. Sixteen drivers currently
in twelve will be in after three weeks. The leader
in the clubhouse is Kyle Larson and William Byron. William
Byron won the regular season championship, but after all the
(09:14):
playoff points and wins gets charted out, the Larson has
tied with William Byron. Denny Hamlin not too far behind
twenty three points, Ryan Blaney twenty points, Christopher Bell seventeen points.
Shane van Ginzbergen with his four wins, is sixteen points
above the cut line, Chase Elliott seven points above the
cut line, Chase Briscoe four points above the cut line,
(09:35):
Bubba Wallace two points above the cut line, Austin Sindric
two points as well, and the last two in on
points as we begin are Ross Chastain and Joey Logano.
The guys that are on the outside looking in as
we start the playoffs are as follows Josh Berry and
Tyler Reddick, both one point below the cut line, Austin
Sindric who is two points below to cut line, and
(09:57):
Alex Bowman, who was the last one to get in
on points points is five points below to cut line,
and that being a prime example of how much playoff
points and wins matter. The fact that Alex Bowman did
get in, had a top ten to top twelve year
all year long, but since he didn't get a win
or not that many stage wins in general, he is
going to be behind the eight ball as we begin things.
(10:18):
So looking at this playoff field, I always guarantee one
thing to happen, and that is that one surprise guy
will not make the round of twelve. In years past,
it's been guys like Joey Logano. I believe Martin Shericks
Junior was one of those guys one year, and I
think that that's going to continue heading into this upcoming
playoffs here. So when you look at the playoffs and
(10:41):
look at the guys that are above the cut line, specifically,
I always try to look at one or two guys
above the cut line and one or two guys below
to cut line. And unfortunately, the first name that comes
to mind when I'm looking at the guys above the
cut line is Ross Chastain. Now maybe wondering, hey, he
wanted the coke six hundred, He's got a Crowner'll win
next to him, and you look at his top five
(11:02):
and top ten splits, three top fives, nothing really air,
but he's got ten top tens. That's pretty solid. Here's
the problem with Ross Chastain. Ever since winning the Coke
six hundred back in May, he is only led. He
has only led eleven laps, eleven laps. And this is
(11:23):
not just like a three or four five race span.
We're talking about a twelve to thirteen race span here
for Ross Chastain. And seven of those eleven laps came
this past weekend at Daytona. That's not good. And to
add on to that is, you know, really put things
in perspective. He's only he's not even had a top
five finish, not at all. He's only had three top
(11:44):
tens in that span. It has been a very quiet
last couple of months for Ross Chastain, and he's coming
into this playoff with no momentum. And I'll look back
to what happened before he won the race at Charlotte, Specifically,
when he finished second at Texas, he called out the
team trackhouse as a whole to say, hey, we're not
building the best cars out here to go out and
compete and win races. We got to do better. Now,
(12:07):
If you know, three weeks later won the race at Charlotte,
so it felt like, oh, things are going back into
their favor, it's going to be good. Well, since then,
it's not been good for Ross Chastain. It's been good
for shanevan Gisbergen, but a lot of that has to
do with the fact that he's winning on road courses
and that's his specialty and he's a cut above everybody
on the circuit right now there is no touching SVG
(12:29):
on the road courses. But outside of that, just Trackhouse
feels like a team that's stuck in the MUDs sort
of and not really getting back to what they were
two or three years ago. Like they have some week's
top ten speed, but rarely have we seen them put
in weekend week out this year top five speed consecutively
(12:50):
for at least one of their cars, not including shanevn
Getsbergen old road courses and with Ross Chastain, he's the
flag bearer of the company. And the fact that he
has only gotten three top tens since winning the Koke
six hundred on Memorial Day weekend and no top fives,
and the fact that he's only led eleven laps in
about twelve to thirteen races has me very concerned for
(13:11):
the number one car heading into the Round of sixteen.
I think he's a prime candidate to get eliminated in
the first round. And keeping things with Trackhouse, do want
to talk about SFG in his playoff chances? As I mentioned,
he's won four races this year, all on road courses,
and unfortunately for him, there's no road courses in this round.
That'll happen in the next round, in the round to
(13:32):
twelve when they come back here to Charlotte for the roval.
But the real question is Ken Sfigi and his sixteen
point cushion be good enough for him to get to
the next round. I don't know. I really don't know,
because you know, early in the year he was a
complete non factor. I mean it felt like he was
going to be one of the rolling Chicaines. He was
(13:52):
in the not even in the top thirty most weeks.
He was like thirty first, the thirty fifth, thirty six
on a given week throughout the first eight to ten weeks.
And then things started to finally click right around the
time that Ross Chastain won the All Star Race, and
then boom oh. Road courses come and Shane Van Ginzbergen's
able to dominate the races. But there is one thing
that I'm keeping in the back of my head, and
(14:14):
I go back to last year's Infinity Series Season four
Shane Van Ginzbergen, and the fact is that every time
he went back to a track, even if the result
didn't show, he was clearly better at the track and
knew more of what to do when he was at
a track at a certain turn if he wants a
diamond a turn, what's the jury, what's the exit and
(14:34):
stuff like that. So I'm keeping my eye on SFG
because he raced at Darlington earlier this year got a
twentieth place finish, and he's also raced at Bristol earlier
this year. So I do think two to three races
he's already raced at, I think he's going to have
improvements head again to both of these races. Gateway don't
really know what to expect from him. But here's another
(14:57):
stat that I really think is intriguing when it comes
to SVG, and that is the last two finishes for him.
Now you look at his finishes, a fourteenth at Richmond
and a sixteenth at Daytona. That really isn't right in
anything like it's nothing to write home about. But in
my opinion, if he can finish anywhere from fourteenth to
twentieth over the next three races, if that's where he finishes,
(15:20):
if that's all he gets, I think he's got a
shot to make the next round, and that basically is
the goal for him. Finish in the top twenty for
the next three races, maybe get a little sexy with
the strategy, get yourself some stage points that could help
you in the end, and then finish in the top
fifteen to top twenty, survive the attrition, especially at Darlington this weekend.
(15:43):
I actually think Sveg has a good chance to make
it to the next round if he can follow that plan.
If he's finishing in twenty fifth, twenty sixth each week,
no way, he's not going to do it. But if
he can finish anywhere from fourteenth to twentieth, even a
little bit higher, of course, but if he can get
from fourteenth to twenty over the next three weeks and
basically just kind of ride that way for the next
(16:05):
five weeks, if we're being honest, I think he's got
a shot to make it to the next round with
his cushion that he has from the four wins that
he got throughout the summer, and then you try to
win at the roval and get himself in a round
of eight, and then you're in a whole new ball game.
I actually it's kind of weird saying this, but I
think Sveg has a better chance to make the round
to twelve than Ross Chastain, which feels weird to say.
(16:26):
I know SVG has more of a cushion, but Ross
Chastain is better at these tracks upcoming, especially at a
track like Darlington. But I just I look at what
Svig's been able to do. He slowly but surely gets better,
and I feel like at a track like Darlington, it
rewards drivers like that, and I think it could do
the same at Gateway and if you're patient enough, I
think he can do the same at Bristol too. So
(16:48):
that's basically his goal and hope that the other playoffs
drivers have problems because guess what they usually do. Now
when it comes to the last guy that I think
that is above the cut line, that is not going
to make the cut. It feels serious, typical, but it's
because it's happened before. It's Joey Logano. You go, look
what happened in twenty twenty two. He got hot in
the right time, and then in twenty twenty three he
(17:09):
only has one win and just completely craps the bed
in the first round of playoffs and then boom he's out.
And last year that one win at Nashville and that
mess of a race, and then gets hot, gets a
little break by Alex Bowman getting dehed, and then boom
wins another championship. It's kind of an even year Logano
thing that people talk about. Well, unfortunately for Logano, it's
(17:29):
a odd year and Logano has just not had it
this year as well. He's had a couple of good
runs early in the year, but ever since winning that
race at Texas, he's not been to Joey Logano that
you expect to see on a weekend and a week
out basis. And I feel like, yet again, this is
a prime opportunity for Joey Logano to be a one
and done guy in the playoffs yet again and follow
(17:51):
up that twenty twenty four championship season with a dud
in the playoffs. So, in my opinion, the two guys
that I think are going to be on the inside
that are going to be out by the time we
get through with Bristol is Ross Chastain and Joey Logano.
Which is weird to say, considering you know, a lot
of people would say, oh, SVG's got no shot. I
think SVG's got a shot. Now when it comes to
(18:12):
the guys that are on the outside looking in, it's
a little bit more intriguing. I usually would want to
go with Tyler Redick. Tyler Reick's only got one point
the game, and I think he can gain it. I
clearly see a world where Tyler Redick gets into the
next round without even winning. But I don't know. I
(18:32):
get this weird feeling. Even though they have not been
consistent at all since winning at Las Vegas, I have
a feeling that Josh Berry is going to make it
to the next round. And the reason why I say
that is, you know, he has not had the finishes
that he's wanted since winning the race at Las Vegas
back in March. But he's had a lot of strong
(18:54):
runs and then something happens that gets in the way
of a good run. I think of races like Martinsville.
Penalties on pitt Road Deren a green flight pitstop really
ruined his chances of having even a solid finish. He
finished thirty seconds. You know, he wrecked at Atlanta. He
had a multitude of problems at Texas. Kansas had a
couple of problems, but he was able to overcome it
(19:14):
with a top ten finish. The talent's there with Josh
Berry and this team, but the finishes have not been
especially throughout the summer months. But what I do like
is the fact that I think he's going to be
pretty good at some of these tracks. Darlington it's prime
for him. That was actually another track he had a
good run out and then problems persisted throughout the rest
of the race. I think he could have a good
(19:35):
run at Darlington, and of course the round of sixteen
ends at his home track of Bristol. He is a
short track ace in my opinion. You have to keep
a close eye on Josh Berry, and I think Josh
Berry is going to be the upset of round one
to make it through the round of sixteen into the
round of twelve. I'll also throw Tyler Redick in there
(19:56):
as a legit chance, even though I have my doubts
about him, consider he has won and something always seems
to be in the way for him. I just think
he is too good to be a one and done guy,
even this year. Now, with all of that being said,
I've previewed to the playoffs. Who's the wild cards, who's
gonna be the stinkers, the upset candidates, and everything like that.
(20:17):
Let's get to my picks for this weekend's events in
NASCAR at Darlington. Evin thinks he's pretty smart when it
comes to NASCAR. The inner mechanicians of my mind are
in a enigmab. Let's see if that holds up as
he tries to pick the race winners in the burnout.
All Right, it is an interesting week All three series
(20:39):
will be racing this weekend. Two of the series will
be at Darlington. First D Truck Series the Sober Or
Slammer two hundred at Saturday, August thirtieth, at high noon
on FS one. At this point, I'm picking Corey Him
until someone proves me otherwise. Corey Him wins at Darlington.
Infinity Series not gonna be at Darlington, No, They're gonna
be across the country at Portland International Raceway. Catch the
(21:03):
race on the CW Saturday August thirtieth, seven thirty pm,
the Pacific Office Automation one forty seven. I would usually
go with Connor Zilich here, don't know if he's going
to be racing the full race, so in that case,
I'm not gonna go with Connor Zilich. I'm going to
go with Sam Mayer, who is a road course talent
in his own right. And finally, the Southern five hundred,
(21:25):
the Cookout seven five hundred, Catch the race on USA
Network Sunday, August thirty, first, six pm. I think we're
gonna have a redeeming win here this weekend. William Byron
redeems himself after not winning the race earlier this year.
He wins the Southern five hundred collects a second Crown
Jewel in the same year he wins the race at Donnington.
(21:48):
So once again my picks are Portas Truck Series, Corey Heim,
Xfinity Series, Sam Mayor, and for the Cup Series William Byron,
all three manufacturers getting wins this weekend. According to Waugh,
that'll do it for this edition and then to the
smoke Bee Shore to tune it next week as we'll
recap what happened at Darlington in preview NASCAR's first playoff
(22:08):
trip to Saint Louis. But until then, I hope you
all have a good weekend. Remember everyone stay fast. In Jesus' name, buggety, buggety, buggety,
hey man.
Drivers, start your eg Let's go Into the Smoke with
Evan Ludwig and welcome back again to another edition of
Into the Smoke podcast edition right here on the Sports
(00:22):
Radio FNZ podcasting Network. I'm your host, as always, Evan
Smoke Ludwig, and in today's edition of Into the Smoke,
not gonna talk as much about the race that happened
at Daytona this past weekend, but it's a full on
playoff preview foard the round of sixteen, and like I
just said, I'm not gonna spend that much time on
the race that happened this past weekend at Daytona, but
(00:44):
I do want to mention and talk a little bit
about what happened, and that was the fact that Ryan
Blaney is able to get his second win of the year,
and the fact that there were no new winners that
came from that race, which meant that both Alex Bowman
and Tyler Redick were able to make the racist by
Alex Bowman being caught up Indie Big One in the
(01:05):
first stage and Tyler Reddick basically trying to limp Palm
to a finish after getting involved in the rec in
stage one as well. So no new winners means pretty
much status quo from what we were last week. No
shockers or anything like that. But it did come close
because Ryan Blaney was able to outlast Daniel Sorez, Justin Haley,
Cole Custer, Eric Jones, and a couple of otters, a
(01:26):
myriad of utters, if I want to be honest, to
win the race. And he went from thirteenth to first.
And that was big because if it wasn't for Ryan Blaney,
Alex Bowman would have been out of the playoffs and
we would have had a last second buzzer beater to
get someone else in. So big for Ryan Blaney, big
for Alex Bowman. Also, do want to mention, and we'll
get into this a little bit more later on the
(01:48):
fact that Ryan Blaney has been inconsistent this year. He's
had a lot of really bad luck early on in
the season when he had a lot of good runs.
But I do take notice of this. This is the
fact that ever since his crash at Sonoma, he has
not finished outside the top ten. He has finished eighth, seventh, fourth, six, third,
and first respectively at these races, and his average finish
(02:12):
has climbed up by two points two positions ever since
the record SONMA. So that's something that I think is
definitely something you need to keep an eye on, especially
if you're picking someone to win a championship. I wouldn't
be shocked if Ryan Blaney wins a championship, especially with
Pinske's dominates, But if it's going to come from anyone
in Pinske this year, I think it would be Ryan Blaney.
(02:32):
And I'll also say this, for as much as I've
given crap on NASCAR for the way that the Gen
seven has raced on the super speedways, it's not perfect,
but I felt like Saturday's race at Daytona was a
another stride in the right direction. And that follows that's
now two straight weeks where we've had, in my opinion,
(02:53):
strides in the right direction for both to race at
the short track at Richmond and this past weekend the
race at Daytona. I don't think it's fixing everything, like
we're not getting the ballsy moves that we see in
the Infinity race with those old cars. I don't know
if we're ever going to get to that point, but
I do think they might have hit something of a
(03:13):
formula when it comes to shortening the stages to make
sure that the cars don't save anything like that. And
I don't know it just it was a really good race.
And I hope that when they go to Talladeggen in
a couple of weeks they can replicate that run at
Daytona moving forward. So that's something to keep an eye on.
But want to give credit to NASCAR for the job
(03:34):
that they did and some of the improvements hopefully that
continue to be made to make the races better. And
I'll also give NASCAR an Ada boy for no cars
getting off the ground this past weekend. I know that's
a low bar to climb, but considering the fact that
the all the changes that they were trying to make
to make sure the cars stayed on the ground, the
fact that they Toona last year, it happened they Tona
(03:54):
this year, it happened with Ryan Priest, I count that
as a win. Hopefully that continues, and hope it's a
streak that continues year over year over year moving forward.
And with all that being said, let's get into the
meat and potatoes of this show, and that is the
preview of the NASCAR Playoffs, specifically the Round of sixteen.
All right, now, the Round of sixteen. Little bit of
(04:17):
a different round compared to what it has been the
past couple of years, but not too different when it
comes to the tracks it to racing at of course,
as always, it's a Labor Day weekend, so the playoffs
will start out with the seven five hundred at Darlington Raceway.
That's about as tough as a race as you could
get to start out the playoffs, and I love it
for that. I think it's gonna be a lot of fun.
(04:39):
But it's one of those races where you have an
idea of where you think who's gonna win, but of
course it changes in the last moment. Prime example being
the race earlier this year. William Byron dominated the race.
He led I think over two hundred and twenty laps
and then kind of got off sequence on pit Road,
didn't pit at the right time. Tyler Rede took the lead,
(05:00):
you think he's gonna win, but a late caution comes out,
Denny Hamlin's able to win the race off pitt Road
and then he wins the race. So it's this is
one of those races where it looks like one guy could.
It's kind of like the Cooke six hundred in a
way where it looks like one guy can completely dominate
a certain portion of the race and you think, oh,
he's got them all. He is going to cruise the victory,
and then something happens and then boom, he's ever lapped down.
(05:22):
He kind of fizzles out a little bit into the
back half of the top ten, someone else takes over.
And that's the case at every Darlington race. It's not
just like the Koke six hundred where it's six hundred miles.
It's like that for every Darlington race. And that was
for the four hundred miler. Add on another one hundred
miles to this race and you got yourself a five
hundred miler three hundred and sixty seven laps. It doesn't
(05:42):
sound like much, but three hundred and sixty seven laps
had a track like Darlington, it really takes on the
punch once you get into the middle portion of that race.
I'd argue at times that it's longer than the Cooke
six hundred the way it feels, So, I mean, that's
gonna be about as tough of a race to start
things out with, especially in the heat of South Carolina
(06:03):
in the middle of the afternoon into the evening and
a night and the big new race here in a
round of sixteen to big change that is is the
fact that for the first time ever, the Worldwide Technology
Raceway aka Gateway for a U old head will be
hosting a playoff race. And I think this is big
and I think it makes a lot of sense. Gateways
(06:24):
had a great attendance for each race that NASCAR has
had since they came back to to track in twenty
twenty two. And let's be honest, you know, for a
NASCAR they're competing against the NFL. Next Sunday is going
to be the first regular season game in football they
go to a market that doesn't have an NFL team.
That makes perfect sense. Keep the tickets, keep things going,
(06:46):
and plus it also helps for NASCAR the fact that
the Cardinals aren't doing so well. In fact, they've had
some of the worst attendance recently that they've had in
a long time. And that's saying something for those who
don't know. Saint Louis loves the Cardinals, So for fans
not to be attending Cardinals games, that's saying a lot.
So for NASCAR, they might have hit a home run
here by having the race at Gateway in the Round
(07:08):
of sixteen to the playoffs. I look at this as
a very interesting event and something that you can't really
take a ton from because the race that you had
at Gateway the past couple of years was in late
May early June. I know, it's still kind of hot
in September, especially in a place like Saint Louis depending
on the situation, but different time of the year, so
on and so forth. That type of stuff. It's gonna
(07:29):
throw curveball for a lot of these teams. And what's
gonna throw curveball for a lot of these teams is
the fact that Gateway is notoriously bad, especially with this
car owned the break roaders, the long straightaways and then
the hard breaking. It wears these breaks out. So I
wouldn't be shocked if we see a couple of break
roaders fail with some of the drivers that are in
(07:50):
or even out of the playoffs at this point, So
don't be shocked by that. So that's kind of a
curveball with this race in this round. And then finally,
the Round of sixteen concludes where it has conclude for
the past couple of years, and that is at Bristol
Motor Speedway. And what I'm interested in to see is
can we see tire wear similar to what we saw
Richmond at Bristol. And the reason I ask that is
(08:12):
just because it's a short track doesn't mean it's going
to be exactly the same. You're going from asphalt to concrete,
and you're also going from a track that has pretty
small banking all things considered, to the track with the
most banking in the entire circuit at Bristol, So that's
something that's going to be very interesting to look at.
And it's a night race too, so a lot to
(08:33):
look forward to if you're a racing fan. Two of
the three races in this round are night races seven
five hundred. It goes throughout the whole entire evening into tonight.
But definitely a lot to look forward to, I think,
in all three of these races, and they're very intriguing.
Nothing that really looks as a complete wild card, but
it also is a fair task. You get yourself from
(08:54):
the round of sixteen to the round of twelve. And
now that we've previewed the tracks, let's look at the
point standings heading in to the playoffs. Sixteen drivers currently
in twelve will be in after three weeks. The leader
in the clubhouse is Kyle Larson and William Byron. William
Byron won the regular season championship, but after all the
(09:14):
playoff points and wins gets charted out, the Larson has
tied with William Byron. Denny Hamlin not too far behind
twenty three points, Ryan Blaney twenty points, Christopher Bell seventeen points.
Shane van Ginzbergen with his four wins, is sixteen points
above the cut line, Chase Elliott seven points above the
cut line, Chase Briscoe four points above the cut line,
(09:35):
Bubba Wallace two points above the cut line, Austin Sindric
two points as well, and the last two in on
points as we begin are Ross Chastain and Joey Logano.
The guys that are on the outside looking in as
we start the playoffs are as follows Josh Berry and
Tyler Reddick, both one point below the cut line, Austin
Sindric who is two points below to cut line, and
(09:57):
Alex Bowman, who was the last one to get in
on points points is five points below to cut line,
and that being a prime example of how much playoff
points and wins matter. The fact that Alex Bowman did
get in, had a top ten to top twelve year
all year long, but since he didn't get a win
or not that many stage wins in general, he is
going to be behind the eight ball as we begin things.
(10:18):
So looking at this playoff field, I always guarantee one
thing to happen, and that is that one surprise guy
will not make the round of twelve. In years past,
it's been guys like Joey Logano. I believe Martin Shericks
Junior was one of those guys one year, and I
think that that's going to continue heading into this upcoming
playoffs here. So when you look at the playoffs and
(10:41):
look at the guys that are above the cut line, specifically,
I always try to look at one or two guys
above the cut line and one or two guys below
to cut line. And unfortunately, the first name that comes
to mind when I'm looking at the guys above the
cut line is Ross Chastain. Now maybe wondering, hey, he
wanted the coke six hundred, He's got a Crowner'll win
next to him, and you look at his top five
(11:02):
and top ten splits, three top fives, nothing really air,
but he's got ten top tens. That's pretty solid. Here's
the problem with Ross Chastain. Ever since winning the Coke
six hundred back in May, he is only led. He
has only led eleven laps, eleven laps. And this is
(11:23):
not just like a three or four five race span.
We're talking about a twelve to thirteen race span here
for Ross Chastain. And seven of those eleven laps came
this past weekend at Daytona. That's not good. And to
add on to that is, you know, really put things
in perspective. He's only he's not even had a top
five finish, not at all. He's only had three top
(11:44):
tens in that span. It has been a very quiet
last couple of months for Ross Chastain, and he's coming
into this playoff with no momentum. And I'll look back
to what happened before he won the race at Charlotte, Specifically,
when he finished second at Texas, he called out the
team trackhouse as a whole to say, hey, we're not
building the best cars out here to go out and
compete and win races. We got to do better. Now,
(12:07):
If you know, three weeks later won the race at Charlotte,
so it felt like, oh, things are going back into
their favor, it's going to be good. Well, since then,
it's not been good for Ross Chastain. It's been good
for shanevan Gisbergen, but a lot of that has to
do with the fact that he's winning on road courses
and that's his specialty and he's a cut above everybody
on the circuit right now there is no touching SVG
(12:29):
on the road courses. But outside of that, just Trackhouse
feels like a team that's stuck in the MUDs sort
of and not really getting back to what they were
two or three years ago. Like they have some week's
top ten speed, but rarely have we seen them put
in weekend week out this year top five speed consecutively
(12:50):
for at least one of their cars, not including shanevn
Getsbergen old road courses and with Ross Chastain, he's the
flag bearer of the company. And the fact that he
has only gotten three top tens since winning the Koke
six hundred on Memorial Day weekend and no top fives,
and the fact that he's only led eleven laps in
about twelve to thirteen races has me very concerned for
(13:11):
the number one car heading into the Round of sixteen.
I think he's a prime candidate to get eliminated in
the first round. And keeping things with Trackhouse, do want
to talk about SFG in his playoff chances? As I mentioned,
he's won four races this year, all on road courses,
and unfortunately for him, there's no road courses in this round.
That'll happen in the next round, in the round to
(13:32):
twelve when they come back here to Charlotte for the roval.
But the real question is Ken Sfigi and his sixteen
point cushion be good enough for him to get to
the next round. I don't know. I really don't know,
because you know, early in the year he was a
complete non factor. I mean it felt like he was
going to be one of the rolling Chicaines. He was
(13:52):
in the not even in the top thirty most weeks.
He was like thirty first, the thirty fifth, thirty six
on a given week throughout the first eight to ten weeks.
And then things started to finally click right around the
time that Ross Chastain won the All Star Race, and
then boom oh. Road courses come and Shane Van Ginzbergen's
able to dominate the races. But there is one thing
that I'm keeping in the back of my head, and
(14:14):
I go back to last year's Infinity Series Season four
Shane Van Ginzbergen, and the fact is that every time
he went back to a track, even if the result
didn't show, he was clearly better at the track and
knew more of what to do when he was at
a track at a certain turn if he wants a
diamond a turn, what's the jury, what's the exit and
(14:34):
stuff like that. So I'm keeping my eye on SFG
because he raced at Darlington earlier this year got a
twentieth place finish, and he's also raced at Bristol earlier
this year. So I do think two to three races
he's already raced at, I think he's going to have
improvements head again to both of these races. Gateway don't
really know what to expect from him. But here's another
(14:57):
stat that I really think is intriguing when it comes
to SVG, and that is the last two finishes for him.
Now you look at his finishes, a fourteenth at Richmond
and a sixteenth at Daytona. That really isn't right in
anything like it's nothing to write home about. But in
my opinion, if he can finish anywhere from fourteenth to
twentieth over the next three races, if that's where he finishes,
(15:20):
if that's all he gets, I think he's got a
shot to make the next round, and that basically is
the goal for him. Finish in the top twenty for
the next three races, maybe get a little sexy with
the strategy, get yourself some stage points that could help
you in the end, and then finish in the top
fifteen to top twenty, survive the attrition, especially at Darlington this weekend.
(15:43):
I actually think Sveg has a good chance to make
it to the next round if he can follow that plan.
If he's finishing in twenty fifth, twenty sixth each week,
no way, he's not going to do it. But if
he can finish anywhere from fourteenth to twentieth, even a
little bit higher, of course, but if he can get
from fourteenth to twenty over the next three weeks and
basically just kind of ride that way for the next
(16:05):
five weeks, if we're being honest, I think he's got
a shot to make it to the next round with
his cushion that he has from the four wins that
he got throughout the summer, and then you try to
win at the roval and get himself in a round
of eight, and then you're in a whole new ball game.
I actually it's kind of weird saying this, but I
think Sveg has a better chance to make the round
to twelve than Ross Chastain, which feels weird to say.
(16:26):
I know SVG has more of a cushion, but Ross
Chastain is better at these tracks upcoming, especially at a
track like Darlington. But I just I look at what
Svig's been able to do. He slowly but surely gets better,
and I feel like at a track like Darlington, it
rewards drivers like that, and I think it could do
the same at Gateway and if you're patient enough, I
think he can do the same at Bristol too. So
(16:48):
that's basically his goal and hope that the other playoffs
drivers have problems because guess what they usually do. Now
when it comes to the last guy that I think
that is above the cut line, that is not going
to make the cut. It feels serious, typical, but it's
because it's happened before. It's Joey Logano. You go, look
what happened in twenty twenty two. He got hot in
the right time, and then in twenty twenty three he
(17:09):
only has one win and just completely craps the bed
in the first round of playoffs and then boom he's out.
And last year that one win at Nashville and that
mess of a race, and then gets hot, gets a
little break by Alex Bowman getting dehed, and then boom
wins another championship. It's kind of an even year Logano
thing that people talk about. Well, unfortunately for Logano, it's
(17:29):
a odd year and Logano has just not had it
this year as well. He's had a couple of good
runs early in the year, but ever since winning that
race at Texas, he's not been to Joey Logano that
you expect to see on a weekend and a week
out basis. And I feel like, yet again, this is
a prime opportunity for Joey Logano to be a one
and done guy in the playoffs yet again and follow
(17:51):
up that twenty twenty four championship season with a dud
in the playoffs. So, in my opinion, the two guys
that I think are going to be on the inside
that are going to be out by the time we
get through with Bristol is Ross Chastain and Joey Logano.
Which is weird to say, considering you know, a lot
of people would say, oh, SVG's got no shot. I
think SVG's got a shot. Now when it comes to
(18:12):
the guys that are on the outside looking in, it's
a little bit more intriguing. I usually would want to
go with Tyler Redick. Tyler Reick's only got one point
the game, and I think he can gain it. I
clearly see a world where Tyler Redick gets into the
next round without even winning. But I don't know. I
(18:32):
get this weird feeling. Even though they have not been
consistent at all since winning at Las Vegas, I have
a feeling that Josh Berry is going to make it
to the next round. And the reason why I say
that is, you know, he has not had the finishes
that he's wanted since winning the race at Las Vegas
back in March. But he's had a lot of strong
(18:54):
runs and then something happens that gets in the way
of a good run. I think of races like Martinsville.
Penalties on pitt Road Deren a green flight pitstop really
ruined his chances of having even a solid finish. He
finished thirty seconds. You know, he wrecked at Atlanta. He
had a multitude of problems at Texas. Kansas had a
couple of problems, but he was able to overcome it
(19:14):
with a top ten finish. The talent's there with Josh
Berry and this team, but the finishes have not been
especially throughout the summer months. But what I do like
is the fact that I think he's going to be
pretty good at some of these tracks. Darlington it's prime
for him. That was actually another track he had a
good run out and then problems persisted throughout the rest
of the race. I think he could have a good
(19:35):
run at Darlington, and of course the round of sixteen
ends at his home track of Bristol. He is a
short track ace in my opinion. You have to keep
a close eye on Josh Berry, and I think Josh
Berry is going to be the upset of round one
to make it through the round of sixteen into the
round of twelve. I'll also throw Tyler Redick in there
(19:56):
as a legit chance, even though I have my doubts
about him, consider he has won and something always seems
to be in the way for him. I just think
he is too good to be a one and done guy,
even this year. Now, with all of that being said,
I've previewed to the playoffs. Who's the wild cards, who's
gonna be the stinkers, the upset candidates, and everything like that.
(20:17):
Let's get to my picks for this weekend's events in
NASCAR at Darlington. Evin thinks he's pretty smart when it
comes to NASCAR. The inner mechanicians of my mind are
in a enigmab. Let's see if that holds up as
he tries to pick the race winners in the burnout.
All Right, it is an interesting week All three series
(20:39):
will be racing this weekend. Two of the series will
be at Darlington. First D Truck Series the Sober Or
Slammer two hundred at Saturday, August thirtieth, at high noon
on FS one. At this point, I'm picking Corey Him
until someone proves me otherwise. Corey Him wins at Darlington.
Infinity Series not gonna be at Darlington, No, They're gonna
be across the country at Portland International Raceway. Catch the
(21:03):
race on the CW Saturday August thirtieth, seven thirty pm,
the Pacific Office Automation one forty seven. I would usually
go with Connor Zilich here, don't know if he's going
to be racing the full race, so in that case,
I'm not gonna go with Connor Zilich. I'm going to
go with Sam Mayer, who is a road course talent
in his own right. And finally, the Southern five hundred,
(21:25):
the Cookout seven five hundred, Catch the race on USA
Network Sunday, August thirty, first, six pm. I think we're
gonna have a redeeming win here this weekend. William Byron
redeems himself after not winning the race earlier this year.
He wins the Southern five hundred collects a second Crown
Jewel in the same year he wins the race at Donnington.
(21:48):
So once again my picks are Portas Truck Series, Corey Heim,
Xfinity Series, Sam Mayor, and for the Cup Series William Byron,
all three manufacturers getting wins this weekend. According to Waugh,
that'll do it for this edition and then to the
smoke Bee Shore to tune it next week as we'll
recap what happened at Darlington in preview NASCAR's first playoff
(22:08):
trip to Saint Louis. But until then, I hope you
all have a good weekend. Remember everyone stay fast. In Jesus' name, buggety, buggety, buggety,
hey man.
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Law & Order: Criminal Justice System - Season 1 & Season 2
Season Two Out Now! Law & Order: Criminal Justice System tells the real stories behind the landmark cases that have shaped how the most dangerous and influential criminals in America are prosecuted. In its second season, the series tackles the threat of terrorism in the United States. From the rise of extremist political groups in the 60s to domestic lone wolves in the modern day, we explore how organizations like the FBI and Joint Terrorism Take Force have evolved to fight back against a multitude of terrorist threats.