July 23, 2025 • 20 mins
In this edition of Into The Smoke, Evan recaps Denny Hamlin's 3rd win at Dover, and we get the latest look at the playoff bubble with the regular season nearing its end.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Drivers, start your edge.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Let's go Into the Smoke with Evan Ludwig and welcome
back yet again to another edition of Into the Smoke
podcast Edition. I'm your host as always, Evan Smoke Ludwig,
and we got ourselves an interesting edition of the show
to get into. Today, we'll recap what happened at Dover
in preview NASCAR's return to the Brickyard for the second
(00:33):
straight year. First off, though, we need to get into
what happened this past weekend at Dover, as it was
a somewhat interesting race. It was definitely kind of weird
to get back after all these road courses just to
get back to a straight up oval and a concrete
oval at that in Dover. But what really was interesting
was the fact that Denny Hamlin was able to hold
(00:56):
off and win this race despite being on older tires.
I had some problem with that myself. The fact that
older tires did not mean anything or new tires did
not mean anything was very interesting and concerning for me.
But Denny Hamlin was able to take advantage of that,
and even though he had to wait out an hour
and fifteen minute rain delay at Dover, which was the
(01:18):
right call in my opinion. This was big for Denny
Hamlin to get that fourth win because if things were
able to hold off like they are right now, Denny
Hamlin would have the most amount of wins in the
whole entire NASCAR Cup Series win And the reason why
that's big is because that means he gets the most
playoff points. That doesn't mean he gets the regular season lead,
(01:38):
but he gets the most playoff points. That would put
him over the top to start things off and give
him the biggest cushion and outside of the regular season champion,
and he still has a chance to win that. I mean,
he's it'll be a pretty big task. He's gonna need
some help, but he is still within a race plus
stage points away from taking the regular season crown as well.
(01:59):
And you gotta remember this is the guy who missed
an entire race at Mexico City to be at home
while his son was born. So that's one of those
things where this race right here could be something to
help Denny Hamlin get a lift over, and I think
that's very big for him, very big for Joe Gibbs
Racing because unfortunately, since the start of the year, Christopher
(02:19):
Bell has not really been seen and dominating like he
was when he won all three of those races back
to back to back, and it proves once again that
Denny Hamlin's going to be a championship contender. I don't
care if he hasn't won a championship. I don't care
if he doesn't make the final four. This guy is
a championship contender and you're gonna be hearing from his
name until the very bitter end for one way or another.
So I think that's something big for him. And it's
(02:41):
also big in my opinion because he was able to
not let the noise of the off de track stuff
with twenty three eleven racing front Romoter Sports in NASCAR
to lawsuit getting away yet again, I think this is,
you know, Denny Hamlin. I try not to say this,
and I think I said this after his win at Michigan.
You try not to think this could be his year.
(03:03):
But Dad Gummett, he has been very good for out
most of the year, especially ever since we've gotten to April.
The first couple of weeks kind of iffy, but ever
since April he has been on a tear. I think
it took him just a little bit to get used
to his new crew chief in Chris Gale. But they
have had created a lot of chemistry already and we're
getting near to the playoffs starting and with Denny Hamlin
(03:27):
getting four wins. Now, to put this in perspective, folks,
Denny Hamlin has not had this many wins in a
season since he was going Mono Emano with Kevin Harvick
back in twenty twenty into COVID year. Ironically, he did
win at Dover that year too, he had seven wins. Now,
I'm not expecting Denny to get seven wins, but once again,
this guy is at the top of his game at
(03:48):
the moment and he has had one of the better
seasons that he's had in his career, which is saying something.
And we still got fourteen more races left to go
in the season. Keep an eye on Denny Hamlin. But
for as much as I would could talk about Denny Hamlin,
I think everyone knows just everything about Denny Hamlin in general,
and there wasn't any controversy who really sparked from Denny
(04:08):
Hamlin's win or you know, comments or anything like that.
The main thing the look at now after the race
at Dover is the playoff standings and the end season Challenge.
So for those who don't know the n season Challenge,
we're wrapping it up this weekend at the Brickyard. Whoever
gets the better finish will win one million dollars. It'll
(04:30):
go to the car owner and it will be distributed
to the team and driver and whichever way according to
the contract. Kind of a little bit of a bummer
for some people, but I think it's kind of similar
for one day when the All Star Race and they
win the Mints the million dollars, but it's going to
be between Ty Dlon and Ty Gibbs. So there's your
(04:50):
matchup there, just like everyone thought, Ty Dylan ty Gibbs
for your matchup for a million dollars. Who would have
funk it. It shows you how random this end season
challenge has been. And in my opinion, I think no
offense to Tie Dylan because this is the most attention
he's gotten since getting caught up to the Cup Series
eight nine years ago. But it just shows you that
(05:12):
don't start your end season challenge at Atlanta or drafting
track in general.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Maybe started at a mile.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Track like Dover would have been a good place to
start the n Season Challenge at it's something that is
a tough race track, don't get me wrong, but you're
not going to have that many upsets. You're going to
have the Krim de la Crime step up. And I'm
not saying you don't want no upsets, because you definitely do.
But you don't want your number one seed going out
fifty laps into a race because it's at a drafting
(05:39):
track and everyone gets hit.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
And that's the problem.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
I think that's really hindered this End Season Challenge outside
of ty Dillan is the fact that a lot of
big hitters got taken out due to the first race
being a drafting track. Now, if you want to move
Atlanta back to the second race of the n Season Challenge,
be my guest. But I think this is something that
NASCAR and specifically Tea and the network is going to
have to learn. Just because your backyards in Atlanta doesn't
(06:04):
mean it's the best racetrack to start out in end
season Challenge. And hopefully that's something that they fix going
into twenty twenty six. Accidentally rhymed, but anyway, moving to
more important things at hand, that is the playoff pitcher.
We got about five six races left before the playoffs begin,
(06:25):
and twelve guys are already into the playoffs based on wins,
so that means four sponsor dvat out to points as
of right now, unless someone behind the cutoff line wins,
and then that could throw a whole new wrench of
problems into this. But it's a lot of usual suspects
for the most part, that have been around the bubble
over the last two to three years, mixed in with
(06:46):
some new names. First off, the guy that I think
doesn't have to worry the most, like he should be
fine unless hell breaks loose, but I think he wants
to get a win odd obviously because he has championship aspirations,
and that's Tyler Redick. Tyler Redick is one hundred and
(07:08):
fifty six points above the cut line.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
It would take a lot of new winners.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
And Tyler Reddick completely crapping to bed for him not
to make the playoffs. That that's point blanket. It's no doubt,
it's almost no doubt. It's not like a one hundred percent,
but it's like a ninety nine point five percent chance
in my opinion, that he is going to make the playoffs.
He's had too good of a car. You know, sometimes
(07:34):
he and his team have shot themselves in the foot
and so sometimes they just haven't had to speed like
they did, you know, at points last year. But I
think he's still good enough to make it into the playoffs.
For example, his average finish this year is still nearly
two spots better than what it was during his first
year at twenty three eleven racings. So he's not been
as good as last year. But I have no doubt
(07:57):
that Tyler Redick, barring a miracle or a collapse unheard of,
will be making the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Outside of that, you get a little.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Bit more interesting here first, So to look at the
final three guys that are currently in on points. Alex
Bowman is in fourteenth place. He has sixty three points
to the good pretty good amount, but not that much
when you factor in stage points. He could have one
or two bad races and that can completely ruin his
chances of making the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
Chris Busher a little bit.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Less of a cushion at forty four points, and Bubba
Wallace is currently the last man in on points at
sixteen points above the cut line, which is nothing because
last week it was three and at the last second,
due to Ryan Pries wrecking and Bubba Wallace being able
to have a couple of good late restarts, was able
to get that number two plus thirteen, so we're looking
(08:50):
at essentially, I'd say Tyler Reck's definitely gonna be safe
in my opinion, and Alex b as long as he
can get top ten, top fifteen runs and no shocking winners,
he's most likely into. I would put Alex Bowman's chances
of being in at about sixty five percent and less
(09:12):
he blows it, So I think those two guys are
for the most part safe. It's just when you get
to Chris Buscher and Bubba Wallace that's where you have
to be concerned, especially if you're Bubba Wallace, and unfortunately
Bubba has been you know, it's almost irregular occurrence that
he's going to be on the cut line every single year,
which is something that he has tried to fix. But
(09:33):
by hooker, by crook, he is always going to be
on the bubble.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
It feels like.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
So when you look at the last few races before
we get to the playoffs starting, it's a lot more
It's not as chaotic as the nd season challenge has
been not that many road courses. There is one, but
there's a lot of diversity into tracks. Indianapolis this weekend,
you know, is Indianapolis Motor Speedway, long straightaways. You're going
(09:57):
to have to have a lot of power. Pit strategy
could play factor. Iowa is its own little entity, kind
of basically a cousin of sorts to Richmond.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
And then Watkins Glenn Road Course.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
You know, that could be big for a guy like
Chris Busher who won the race at Watkins Glenn last year.
That could really save him a lot of pressure if
he goes on and wins that race and then the
last two races of the regular season. You're looking at Richmond,
which has been a chaotic race over the last few years.
I mean, just look at the race last year, Richmond
with Austin Illen and that whole mess. And Daytona, which
(10:31):
is it's Daytona. Anyone can win. Harrison Burton won last year.
So you're looking at a couple of tracks that could
provide some surprises and one that definitely could provide a
massive surprise to end the regular season. Now, when looking
at some of the guys that are beneath the cut
line right now, it's an intriguing list. First off, the
(10:51):
first name below the cut line is Ryan Priest, who's
had himself a career year. Unfortunately, the more and more
this regular season goes on, the more and more if
he misses the playoffs, specifically by a certain amount. That
d Q finished at Tallaga could be what cost him
a playoff spot unless he gets above the cut line
or wins a race. But it's still very doable for
(11:14):
him to get in on points. As we speak right now,
he is only sixteen points below the cut line. And
then you get two very intriguing names and a wild
card behind him. So first of the two intriguing names
is Kyle Busch. Kyle has done slight, has done slightly
better than what he did last year with RCR, but
it's still not been good enough. The speed has not
(11:34):
been there for RCR for out most of the year,
and to the point where after an eleventh place finish
at Dover this past weekend, Richard Truvererstil's own the radio
saying this isn't good enough and this won't cut it essentially,
so it's gonna be interesting. But what Kyle has in
his favor is two of the tracks are very good
(11:55):
for Heat and his team, the first of it being
Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where he's had some of his best
performances in his career. Can never count him out on
a track like this, and i'd also throw in the
regular season finale at Daytona. RCR has always got speed
at the drafting tracks and wouldn't count out Richmond as
a potential sneaky good track for Kyle Busch considering that,
(12:18):
you know, despite all the mess that that Richmond Race was,
last year, Austin Dillon had one of the three to
five best cars.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
You can't forget about that.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
So don't count out Kyle Busch just yet, even though
it's not been the same Kyle Busch as we've been
accustomed to for the last eighteen years. And then right
behind that is Ty Gibbs. Ty Gibbs is fifty two
points back. He's more in a situation where he probably
has to win at this point in the regular season,
but it has still been amazing considering how awful of
(12:48):
a year of a start his year was this year.
I mean, he was like thirty fifth, thirty fourth and
points six to seven races in and now he's gotten
to nineteenth in points without winning, and his only fifty
two points backs, So keep an eye on tie gives.
Just because he's been able to overcome such a bad
start to even be in the mix, that is a
testament to his skill. I know he hasn't won a
(13:09):
race yet. I know people don't like him, but you
got to give him credit on that front. And finally,
the wild card in this whole entire situation is Michael McDowell.
He's now on the verge of having to win to
get in. He's seventy seven points back. It's most likely
gonna take a win. But Michael McDowell is good on
road courses and he's always been good on drafting tracks.
(13:31):
You got one of each throughout the rest of the
regular season, so you cannot count Michael McDowell out when
it comes to these types of races. So all four
of those guys that are beneath the cut line definitely
have can have their own say and can control their
own destiny on this front. But for the most part,
it's a gaggle of about six seven cars. Unless Tyler Redick,
(13:54):
as I said, completely choked, he should be fine. Bowman
just needs to be consistent, get top five, top tens,
and hopefully no new winners that are way below to
cut line or below to cut line in general, and
he should be fine. It's just Busher and Bubba that
are gonna have to be sweating bullets, which unfortunately was
the same spot that they were in last year. Now,
(14:15):
before we get to my race picks for this weekend
at the Brickyard, do need to get on the front
of silly season news and specifically silly season for NASCAR's schedule.
As we were talking about after the race at the
Chicago Street Course whether or not that they would be
racing on the streets of Chicago next year, we found
out late last week that was not going to be
(14:35):
the case. The NASCAR and I believe the city announced something.
But there are still hopes to have a race there
on the streets of Chicago again in the future. But
instead NASCAR's street race will be in San Diego, the
home of Ron Burgundy. Fictional that is, but anyway, big
announcement coming from the street course race in San Diego.
(14:58):
NASCAR officially announced it earlier today, but it's not exactly
a street course. It's going to be on the Coronado
Naval Base and it may be attached to some street.
So essentially we're kind of getting a mix between racing
on a naval base and kind of racing on airports
last street. So it's a weird fixture effusion of all
(15:19):
this stuff, and it's going to be taking place on
Fodersday weekend. It's a one year deal, so this is
probably gonna be a one and done situation here. NASCAR
does want to get back into the California market during
the regular season, specifically the southern California market, because they
already race at Infineon, but that's more northern California, and
apparently all three series are going to be racing on
(15:41):
the naval base on Foddersday weekend. My opinion, this is
a home run. I love this idea. I love getting
involved with the Navies and having it on the naval base.
I love that you're having it in an market like
San Diego, a market that you know, outside of the Pondres,
doesn't have much to compete with. Unfortunately, since the Chargers
(16:02):
left for La back in twenty seventeen and the Clippers
have been long gong from that area, and it's a
big naval base, so you get a lot of melting
pot of different type of people from different backgrounds all
in one city, and a lot of people just love
the San Diego area and it's not as heavily populated
as LA. I think this is going to be one
(16:23):
of those races where a lot of people from across
the country are want to come to not only because
it's in San Diego, but because of how unique this
track is going to be. We don't know specifically the layout.
All we know right now it's going to be Fighter's
Day weekend, going to be on the Cup schedule, likely
a one year deal, and it involves the all three
series on the same weekend. So I think NASCAR is
(16:44):
going all out in this, and I think this could
be a massive success and could open new doors and
variants to how they run their street course races moving forward.
I think this is big and it kind of also
goes back to the golden years of running home either
air force bases or on airplane lots. Like I know
(17:04):
that sounds crazy, but a lot of races NASCAR in
the fifties and sixties ran on airport lots, and you know,
on airports in general, and even any KRN cart used
to do that in Cleveland in the late nineties and
early two thousands and it was a big hit for
the tracks. So I find this as a unique setup,
not only for having it on a naval base, but
could we have racing at airports moving forward. It sounds weird,
(17:28):
but it could be done. It's been done in the past,
and it could be done moving forward. In my opinion,
that's big and that isn't the only news now. This
is not official, but there have been reports because NASCAR,
of course does not want to leave the market of
Chicago into dust. In twenty twenty six, there have been
reports and have been a lot of murmurs surrounding the
(17:48):
fact that Chicago Land could return to the NASCAR schedule
as soon as next year. They haven't had a race
out there in Chicago Land and Juliet, Illinois since twenty
nineteen when Alex Bowman won his first career race, so
it's been six years now and if they were to race,
it'll be seven years. NASCAR does have to do a
little bit of work on the track, but I mean
(18:09):
they can do it. They did work at Northwolks Broth.
They can do work at Northwolks Broo. They can work
on some of the stuff and the amenities surrounding the track.
I believe in time for a race, which would likely
be sometime in July. So we're kind of getting a
little bit more kinks worked out on the schedule for
twenty twenty six. But in my opinion, it's a home
run move for NASCAR to be racing on a naval
(18:32):
base and specifically hitting the southern California market in San Diego,
which is a very unique and by all accounts from
what I've heard, fun market to be in. I love
this move from NASCAR. This is the best possible way
to think outside the box and hopefully this will be
as good of a home run idea as it sounds
on paper. Now, with all of that being said, let's
(18:52):
get to my picks for this weekend's events in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Evan thinks he's pretty smart when it comes to NASCAR.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Mechanicians of my mind are in a nick momb.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Let's see if that holds up as he tries to
pick the race winners in the burnout. All right, all
three series are back in action on the same weekend
once again. All three series are in Indianapolis two But
first let's go to the Truck Series. They race on
Friday at eight pm at Lucas Oil Raceway Park. The
t Sport two hundred Catch to Race on FS one.
(19:27):
It's a short track, so I gotta go with one
of the best short track drivers on the Truck Series circuit,
that is Ti Majeski to win at Lucas Oil Raceway Park.
The Infinity Series Depens Oil two P fifty at Indianapolis
Motor Speedway Catch to Race Saturday, July twenty six, four
to thirty pm.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
On the c DUB.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
I feel like he's the hottest driver on the Xfinity
Series circuit right now, and I think he's going to
continue that hot streak. Connor Zilich wins the Exfinity race
and the Cup Series race. The Breakyard four hundred Cats
to race on Sunday, July twenty seventh, at two pm
on TNT. This is the one race that Denny Hamlin's
not won. I don't think he's gonna be winless at
(20:10):
this track after Sunday. Denny Hamlin's my pick to win.
He's gonna go back to back. Continue his hot streak,
so once again, my picks for this weekend are Ti
Majeski into Truck Series race, Connor Zilich in the Exfinity
Series race, and Denny Hamlin Into Cup Series race. That
we'll do it for this edition of Into the Smoke.
Be shure to tune in next week as we'll recap
(20:30):
what happened at the Brickyard in preview NASCAR second trip
to Iowa. But until then, I hope you all have
a good week and remember everyone stay fast. In Jesus' name, buggety, buggety, buggety.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Hey, ma'am,
Drivers, start your edge.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Let's go Into the Smoke with Evan Ludwig and welcome
back yet again to another edition of Into the Smoke
podcast Edition. I'm your host as always, Evan Smoke Ludwig,
and we got ourselves an interesting edition of the show
to get into. Today, we'll recap what happened at Dover
in preview NASCAR's return to the Brickyard for the second
(00:33):
straight year. First off, though, we need to get into
what happened this past weekend at Dover, as it was
a somewhat interesting race. It was definitely kind of weird
to get back after all these road courses just to
get back to a straight up oval and a concrete
oval at that in Dover. But what really was interesting
was the fact that Denny Hamlin was able to hold
(00:56):
off and win this race despite being on older tires.
I had some problem with that myself. The fact that
older tires did not mean anything or new tires did
not mean anything was very interesting and concerning for me.
But Denny Hamlin was able to take advantage of that,
and even though he had to wait out an hour
and fifteen minute rain delay at Dover, which was the
(01:18):
right call in my opinion. This was big for Denny
Hamlin to get that fourth win because if things were
able to hold off like they are right now, Denny
Hamlin would have the most amount of wins in the
whole entire NASCAR Cup Series win And the reason why
that's big is because that means he gets the most
playoff points. That doesn't mean he gets the regular season lead,
(01:38):
but he gets the most playoff points. That would put
him over the top to start things off and give
him the biggest cushion and outside of the regular season champion,
and he still has a chance to win that. I mean,
he's it'll be a pretty big task. He's gonna need
some help, but he is still within a race plus
stage points away from taking the regular season crown as well.
(01:59):
And you gotta remember this is the guy who missed
an entire race at Mexico City to be at home
while his son was born. So that's one of those
things where this race right here could be something to
help Denny Hamlin get a lift over, and I think
that's very big for him, very big for Joe Gibbs
Racing because unfortunately, since the start of the year, Christopher
(02:19):
Bell has not really been seen and dominating like he
was when he won all three of those races back
to back to back, and it proves once again that
Denny Hamlin's going to be a championship contender. I don't
care if he hasn't won a championship. I don't care
if he doesn't make the final four. This guy is
a championship contender and you're gonna be hearing from his
name until the very bitter end for one way or another.
So I think that's something big for him. And it's
(02:41):
also big in my opinion because he was able to
not let the noise of the off de track stuff
with twenty three eleven racing front Romoter Sports in NASCAR
to lawsuit getting away yet again, I think this is,
you know, Denny Hamlin. I try not to say this,
and I think I said this after his win at Michigan.
You try not to think this could be his year.
(03:03):
But Dad Gummett, he has been very good for out
most of the year, especially ever since we've gotten to April.
The first couple of weeks kind of iffy, but ever
since April he has been on a tear. I think
it took him just a little bit to get used
to his new crew chief in Chris Gale. But they
have had created a lot of chemistry already and we're
getting near to the playoffs starting and with Denny Hamlin
(03:27):
getting four wins. Now, to put this in perspective, folks,
Denny Hamlin has not had this many wins in a
season since he was going Mono Emano with Kevin Harvick
back in twenty twenty into COVID year. Ironically, he did
win at Dover that year too, he had seven wins. Now,
I'm not expecting Denny to get seven wins, but once again,
this guy is at the top of his game at
(03:48):
the moment and he has had one of the better
seasons that he's had in his career, which is saying something.
And we still got fourteen more races left to go
in the season. Keep an eye on Denny Hamlin. But
for as much as I would could talk about Denny Hamlin,
I think everyone knows just everything about Denny Hamlin in general,
and there wasn't any controversy who really sparked from Denny
(04:08):
Hamlin's win or you know, comments or anything like that.
The main thing the look at now after the race
at Dover is the playoff standings and the end season Challenge.
So for those who don't know the n season Challenge,
we're wrapping it up this weekend at the Brickyard. Whoever
gets the better finish will win one million dollars. It'll
(04:30):
go to the car owner and it will be distributed
to the team and driver and whichever way according to
the contract. Kind of a little bit of a bummer
for some people, but I think it's kind of similar
for one day when the All Star Race and they
win the Mints the million dollars, but it's going to
be between Ty Dlon and Ty Gibbs. So there's your
(04:50):
matchup there, just like everyone thought, Ty Dylan ty Gibbs
for your matchup for a million dollars. Who would have
funk it. It shows you how random this end season
challenge has been. And in my opinion, I think no
offense to Tie Dylan because this is the most attention
he's gotten since getting caught up to the Cup Series
eight nine years ago. But it just shows you that
(05:12):
don't start your end season challenge at Atlanta or drafting
track in general.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Maybe started at a mile.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Track like Dover would have been a good place to
start the n Season Challenge at it's something that is
a tough race track, don't get me wrong, but you're
not going to have that many upsets. You're going to
have the Krim de la Crime step up. And I'm
not saying you don't want no upsets, because you definitely do.
But you don't want your number one seed going out
fifty laps into a race because it's at a drafting
(05:39):
track and everyone gets hit.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
And that's the problem.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
I think that's really hindered this End Season Challenge outside
of ty Dillan is the fact that a lot of
big hitters got taken out due to the first race
being a drafting track. Now, if you want to move
Atlanta back to the second race of the n Season Challenge,
be my guest. But I think this is something that
NASCAR and specifically Tea and the network is going to
have to learn. Just because your backyards in Atlanta doesn't
(06:04):
mean it's the best racetrack to start out in end
season Challenge. And hopefully that's something that they fix going
into twenty twenty six. Accidentally rhymed, but anyway, moving to
more important things at hand, that is the playoff pitcher.
We got about five six races left before the playoffs begin,
(06:25):
and twelve guys are already into the playoffs based on wins,
so that means four sponsor dvat out to points as
of right now, unless someone behind the cutoff line wins,
and then that could throw a whole new wrench of
problems into this. But it's a lot of usual suspects
for the most part, that have been around the bubble
over the last two to three years, mixed in with
(06:46):
some new names. First off, the guy that I think
doesn't have to worry the most, like he should be
fine unless hell breaks loose, but I think he wants
to get a win odd obviously because he has championship aspirations,
and that's Tyler Redick. Tyler Redick is one hundred and
(07:08):
fifty six points above the cut line.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
It would take a lot of new winners.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
And Tyler Reddick completely crapping to bed for him not
to make the playoffs. That that's point blanket. It's no doubt,
it's almost no doubt. It's not like a one hundred percent,
but it's like a ninety nine point five percent chance
in my opinion, that he is going to make the playoffs.
He's had too good of a car. You know, sometimes
(07:34):
he and his team have shot themselves in the foot
and so sometimes they just haven't had to speed like
they did, you know, at points last year. But I
think he's still good enough to make it into the playoffs.
For example, his average finish this year is still nearly
two spots better than what it was during his first
year at twenty three eleven racings. So he's not been
as good as last year. But I have no doubt
(07:57):
that Tyler Redick, barring a miracle or a collapse unheard of,
will be making the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Outside of that, you get a little.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Bit more interesting here first, So to look at the
final three guys that are currently in on points. Alex
Bowman is in fourteenth place. He has sixty three points
to the good pretty good amount, but not that much
when you factor in stage points. He could have one
or two bad races and that can completely ruin his
chances of making the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
Chris Busher a little bit.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Less of a cushion at forty four points, and Bubba
Wallace is currently the last man in on points at
sixteen points above the cut line, which is nothing because
last week it was three and at the last second,
due to Ryan Pries wrecking and Bubba Wallace being able
to have a couple of good late restarts, was able
to get that number two plus thirteen, so we're looking
(08:50):
at essentially, I'd say Tyler Reck's definitely gonna be safe
in my opinion, and Alex b as long as he
can get top ten, top fifteen runs and no shocking winners,
he's most likely into. I would put Alex Bowman's chances
of being in at about sixty five percent and less
(09:12):
he blows it, So I think those two guys are
for the most part safe. It's just when you get
to Chris Buscher and Bubba Wallace that's where you have
to be concerned, especially if you're Bubba Wallace, and unfortunately
Bubba has been you know, it's almost irregular occurrence that
he's going to be on the cut line every single year,
which is something that he has tried to fix. But
(09:33):
by hooker, by crook, he is always going to be
on the bubble.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
It feels like.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
So when you look at the last few races before
we get to the playoffs starting, it's a lot more
It's not as chaotic as the nd season challenge has
been not that many road courses. There is one, but
there's a lot of diversity into tracks. Indianapolis this weekend,
you know, is Indianapolis Motor Speedway, long straightaways. You're going
(09:57):
to have to have a lot of power. Pit strategy
could play factor. Iowa is its own little entity, kind
of basically a cousin of sorts to Richmond.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
And then Watkins Glenn Road Course.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
You know, that could be big for a guy like
Chris Busher who won the race at Watkins Glenn last year.
That could really save him a lot of pressure if
he goes on and wins that race and then the
last two races of the regular season. You're looking at Richmond,
which has been a chaotic race over the last few years.
I mean, just look at the race last year, Richmond
with Austin Illen and that whole mess. And Daytona, which
(10:31):
is it's Daytona. Anyone can win. Harrison Burton won last year.
So you're looking at a couple of tracks that could
provide some surprises and one that definitely could provide a
massive surprise to end the regular season. Now, when looking
at some of the guys that are beneath the cut
line right now, it's an intriguing list. First off, the
(10:51):
first name below the cut line is Ryan Priest, who's
had himself a career year. Unfortunately, the more and more
this regular season goes on, the more and more if
he misses the playoffs, specifically by a certain amount. That
d Q finished at Tallaga could be what cost him
a playoff spot unless he gets above the cut line
or wins a race. But it's still very doable for
(11:14):
him to get in on points. As we speak right now,
he is only sixteen points below the cut line. And
then you get two very intriguing names and a wild
card behind him. So first of the two intriguing names
is Kyle Busch. Kyle has done slight, has done slightly
better than what he did last year with RCR, but
it's still not been good enough. The speed has not
(11:34):
been there for RCR for out most of the year,
and to the point where after an eleventh place finish
at Dover this past weekend, Richard Truvererstil's own the radio
saying this isn't good enough and this won't cut it essentially,
so it's gonna be interesting. But what Kyle has in
his favor is two of the tracks are very good
(11:55):
for Heat and his team, the first of it being
Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where he's had some of his best
performances in his career. Can never count him out on
a track like this, and i'd also throw in the
regular season finale at Daytona. RCR has always got speed
at the drafting tracks and wouldn't count out Richmond as
a potential sneaky good track for Kyle Busch considering that,
(12:18):
you know, despite all the mess that that Richmond Race was,
last year, Austin Dillon had one of the three to
five best cars.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
You can't forget about that.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
So don't count out Kyle Busch just yet, even though
it's not been the same Kyle Busch as we've been
accustomed to for the last eighteen years. And then right
behind that is Ty Gibbs. Ty Gibbs is fifty two
points back. He's more in a situation where he probably
has to win at this point in the regular season,
but it has still been amazing considering how awful of
(12:48):
a year of a start his year was this year.
I mean, he was like thirty fifth, thirty fourth and
points six to seven races in and now he's gotten
to nineteenth in points without winning, and his only fifty
two points backs, So keep an eye on tie gives.
Just because he's been able to overcome such a bad
start to even be in the mix, that is a
testament to his skill. I know he hasn't won a
(13:09):
race yet. I know people don't like him, but you
got to give him credit on that front. And finally,
the wild card in this whole entire situation is Michael McDowell.
He's now on the verge of having to win to
get in. He's seventy seven points back. It's most likely
gonna take a win. But Michael McDowell is good on
road courses and he's always been good on drafting tracks.
(13:31):
You got one of each throughout the rest of the
regular season, so you cannot count Michael McDowell out when
it comes to these types of races. So all four
of those guys that are beneath the cut line definitely
have can have their own say and can control their
own destiny on this front. But for the most part,
it's a gaggle of about six seven cars. Unless Tyler Redick,
(13:54):
as I said, completely choked, he should be fine. Bowman
just needs to be consistent, get top five, top tens,
and hopefully no new winners that are way below to
cut line or below to cut line in general, and
he should be fine. It's just Busher and Bubba that
are gonna have to be sweating bullets, which unfortunately was
the same spot that they were in last year. Now,
(14:15):
before we get to my race picks for this weekend
at the Brickyard, do need to get on the front
of silly season news and specifically silly season for NASCAR's schedule.
As we were talking about after the race at the
Chicago Street Course whether or not that they would be
racing on the streets of Chicago next year, we found
out late last week that was not going to be
(14:35):
the case. The NASCAR and I believe the city announced something.
But there are still hopes to have a race there
on the streets of Chicago again in the future. But
instead NASCAR's street race will be in San Diego, the
home of Ron Burgundy. Fictional that is, but anyway, big
announcement coming from the street course race in San Diego.
(14:58):
NASCAR officially announced it earlier today, but it's not exactly
a street course. It's going to be on the Coronado
Naval Base and it may be attached to some street.
So essentially we're kind of getting a mix between racing
on a naval base and kind of racing on airports
last street. So it's a weird fixture effusion of all
(15:19):
this stuff, and it's going to be taking place on
Fodersday weekend. It's a one year deal, so this is
probably gonna be a one and done situation here. NASCAR
does want to get back into the California market during
the regular season, specifically the southern California market, because they
already race at Infineon, but that's more northern California, and
apparently all three series are going to be racing on
(15:41):
the naval base on Foddersday weekend. My opinion, this is
a home run. I love this idea. I love getting
involved with the Navies and having it on the naval base.
I love that you're having it in an market like
San Diego, a market that you know, outside of the Pondres,
doesn't have much to compete with. Unfortunately, since the Chargers
(16:02):
left for La back in twenty seventeen and the Clippers
have been long gong from that area, and it's a
big naval base, so you get a lot of melting
pot of different type of people from different backgrounds all
in one city, and a lot of people just love
the San Diego area and it's not as heavily populated
as LA. I think this is going to be one
(16:23):
of those races where a lot of people from across
the country are want to come to not only because
it's in San Diego, but because of how unique this
track is going to be. We don't know specifically the layout.
All we know right now it's going to be Fighter's
Day weekend, going to be on the Cup schedule, likely
a one year deal, and it involves the all three
series on the same weekend. So I think NASCAR is
(16:44):
going all out in this, and I think this could
be a massive success and could open new doors and
variants to how they run their street course races moving forward.
I think this is big and it kind of also
goes back to the golden years of running home either
air force bases or on airplane lots. Like I know
(17:04):
that sounds crazy, but a lot of races NASCAR in
the fifties and sixties ran on airport lots, and you know,
on airports in general, and even any KRN cart used
to do that in Cleveland in the late nineties and
early two thousands and it was a big hit for
the tracks. So I find this as a unique setup,
not only for having it on a naval base, but
could we have racing at airports moving forward. It sounds weird,
(17:28):
but it could be done. It's been done in the past,
and it could be done moving forward. In my opinion,
that's big and that isn't the only news now. This
is not official, but there have been reports because NASCAR,
of course does not want to leave the market of
Chicago into dust. In twenty twenty six, there have been
reports and have been a lot of murmurs surrounding the
(17:48):
fact that Chicago Land could return to the NASCAR schedule
as soon as next year. They haven't had a race
out there in Chicago Land and Juliet, Illinois since twenty
nineteen when Alex Bowman won his first career race, so
it's been six years now and if they were to race,
it'll be seven years. NASCAR does have to do a
little bit of work on the track, but I mean
(18:09):
they can do it. They did work at Northwolks Broth.
They can do work at Northwolks Broo. They can work
on some of the stuff and the amenities surrounding the track.
I believe in time for a race, which would likely
be sometime in July. So we're kind of getting a
little bit more kinks worked out on the schedule for
twenty twenty six. But in my opinion, it's a home
run move for NASCAR to be racing on a naval
(18:32):
base and specifically hitting the southern California market in San Diego,
which is a very unique and by all accounts from
what I've heard, fun market to be in. I love
this move from NASCAR. This is the best possible way
to think outside the box and hopefully this will be
as good of a home run idea as it sounds
on paper. Now, with all of that being said, let's
(18:52):
get to my picks for this weekend's events in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Evan thinks he's pretty smart when it comes to NASCAR.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Mechanicians of my mind are in a nick momb.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Let's see if that holds up as he tries to
pick the race winners in the burnout. All right, all
three series are back in action on the same weekend
once again. All three series are in Indianapolis two But
first let's go to the Truck Series. They race on
Friday at eight pm at Lucas Oil Raceway Park. The
t Sport two hundred Catch to Race on FS one.
(19:27):
It's a short track, so I gotta go with one
of the best short track drivers on the Truck Series circuit,
that is Ti Majeski to win at Lucas Oil Raceway Park.
The Infinity Series Depens Oil two P fifty at Indianapolis
Motor Speedway Catch to Race Saturday, July twenty six, four
to thirty pm.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
On the c DUB.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
I feel like he's the hottest driver on the Xfinity
Series circuit right now, and I think he's going to
continue that hot streak. Connor Zilich wins the Exfinity race
and the Cup Series race. The Breakyard four hundred Cats
to race on Sunday, July twenty seventh, at two pm
on TNT. This is the one race that Denny Hamlin's
not won. I don't think he's gonna be winless at
(20:10):
this track after Sunday. Denny Hamlin's my pick to win.
He's gonna go back to back. Continue his hot streak,
so once again, my picks for this weekend are Ti
Majeski into Truck Series race, Connor Zilich in the Exfinity
Series race, and Denny Hamlin Into Cup Series race. That
we'll do it for this edition of Into the Smoke.
Be shure to tune in next week as we'll recap
(20:30):
what happened at the Brickyard in preview NASCAR second trip
to Iowa. But until then, I hope you all have
a good week and remember everyone stay fast. In Jesus' name, buggety, buggety, buggety.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Hey, ma'am,
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