August 13, 2025 • 24 mins
Two former Israeli prime ministers and now, the chief of staff of the Israeli defence force, have objected to Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial Gaza takeover plan, in the face of growing objections from the west, including Australia, to the starvation and death of Palestinians.
But, as international editor Peter Hartcher pointedly argues, Netanyahu doesn’t care. Nor does he care about the Israeli hostages still in Gaza. If he did, he would not prolong the war.
So, what will it take?
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S1 (00:01):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,
August 14th. When Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of
the Israeli Defense Force, said last week that he objected
to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to expand the
(00:23):
fighting in Gaza. It set off a series of recriminations,
starting with Netanyahu's son Yair, who accused the army chief
of being behind a plan for a military coup. Today,
international and political editor Peter Hartcher on why an increasing
number of respected Israeli military experts and to former Israeli
(00:44):
prime ministers, are warning Netanyahu not to launch his controversial
expansion and how the Israeli prime minister is responding. So, Peter,
first off, I was hoping we could start with you
telling us what actually moved you to write your column
this week. Because it was very notable to me. You
(01:05):
really sliced through Netanyahu's decision with a surgical type precision
to reveal what you see is an almost mercenary selfishness.
So tell us what actually prompted this column?
S2 (01:14):
Well, I was writing it, Samantha, on the day when
the Australian government was announcing its intention to recognize Palestine
as a state at the UN General Assembly next month.
S3 (01:24):
Today, I can confirm that at the 80th session of
the United Nations General Assembly in September, Australia will recognize
the State of Palestine. Australia will recognize the right of.
S2 (01:38):
And it was a sort of an air of unreality,
I think, in the coverage and the commentary that I
was seeing and hearing. There was an air of unreality
about the effectiveness that this recognition would have rewarding terrorists.
S4 (01:53):
That's how Opposition leader Sussan Ley has described the PM's
push to recognise a Palestinian state and determine its leadership.
The government's decision is under major scrutiny tonight, with the
coalition vowing to reverse it if elected in three years time.
S2 (02:09):
So I thought it was important to explain to people
why this war is continuing, why Netanyahu, each time he
finishes a phase, starts another, launches another phase, often intensifying
but always continuing even after 20 months. And I thought,
(02:29):
people can see they see the images. They especially see
images of Palestinian suffering. So I just thought that I
would cut to the core driver here on the Israeli side.
And it's not because the Israeli public is demanding that
Netanyahu keep driving the war. It's not because the Israeli
(02:51):
army wants Netanyahu to keep driving the war. It's not
because the soldiers, many of whom are reservists and on
call up, are demanding that the war go on. But
I didn't see any indication that the Australian reading and
listening public were getting this information, so I thought I
would try to be helpful.
S1 (03:10):
Well, that's so interesting because it did sort of hit
me as sort of providing, I guess, clarity or a
real focus, I guess, really with the devastation that's happening
on the ground. I mean, obviously all of us are
seeing these ongoing images of destruction and loss of life
in Gaza. And then we also had that video of
the emaciated Israeli hostage who was reportedly directed to dig
his own grave. But like you say, all of that
(03:32):
commentary about recognizing Palestinian statehood seemed very divorced, I guess,
from that. But let's just step through your argument, because
you make the argument that Netanyahu doesn't care about the
lives of the remaining hostages. He doesn't care about whether
more Israeli soldiers die, or about what his own citizens want,
or about more people dying in Gaza. So tell us
how you came to this conclusion.
S2 (03:52):
Well, for a start, we know that he isn't at
all bothered by the continuously mounting death toll of Palestinians
civilians because if he were, he would order the aid trucks,
the food trucks to roll in, and he'd order the bombers,
fighter bombers and strike bombers out. Uh, so that's obvious.
(04:12):
But less obvious, I think, is that if he really
cared about the hostages, he would call a ceasefire or
end this phase of the war to negotiate the release
of the hostages. Now, this is not just, you know,
my sort of, you know, isolated thought bubble here. Three
quarters of the Israeli public want him to stop the
(04:35):
war and negotiate the release of the hostages. That is
the commanding condition on which Israelis predicate this war continuing
or stopping. Uh, Netanyahu is not making any serious effort
to embrace that, to end the war or call a ceasefire.
And in fact, as I was writing this, he had
(04:55):
only just announced an intensification with a new occupation of
Gaza City and perhaps central Gaza, areas that are not
currently occupied by the army as well.
S5 (05:07):
Israel's security cabinet instructed the IDF to dismantle the two
remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and the central camps.
Contrary to false claims, this is the best way to
end the war and the best way to end it speedily.
We will do.
S2 (05:24):
So. He's showing no interest in preserving the remaining hostages.
Disregarding the will of the Israeli people. Unconcerned for the
civilian death toll of the Palestinian people. But also another
much underreported fact, I think, outside Israel is that more
(05:44):
than 450. So excluding the October 7th Seven terrorist attacks
by Hamas. The atrocities perpetrated into Israel on that day.
Since then, more than 450 Israeli soldiers have died in
this conflict. Now Netanyahu, if he cared about them, he
(06:05):
would he would not keep intensifying. He would not keep
prolonging this war. And on the advice of his own
chief of army, the army chief of staff, the leader
of the Israeli military, we know from leaks to the
Israeli media that the army chief of staff had opposed
the continuation and escalation of this war, that he had
(06:29):
told his Prime Minister that it would erode the Israeli troops,
degrade their readiness and their capability, uh, as well as
seriously endanger the lives of the hostages. And Netanyahu, we
see from his decisions, has brushed all of that aside.
S5 (06:47):
Given Hamas's refusal to lay down its arms, Israel has
no choice but to finish the job and complete the
defeat of Hamas. Now we've done a great deal. We
have about 70 to 75% of Gaza under Israeli control,
military control. But we have two remaining.
S2 (07:06):
The soldiers themselves are you know, this has been a
long 20 month conflict, are suffering all sorts of exhaustion
and trauma. And most of them, the the, the conscripts
and the reservists are keen to get back to their lives.
So is it that there is some commanding Hamas force
(07:30):
that is still effective and is still waging war against Israel,
and is still capable of launching new attacks against Israel?
Not in Gaza, but in Israel itself. And the answer
there also is, is no, it's not. And we have
multiple testimonies to that effect, such as including, uh, the
(07:54):
600 Israeli former generals, spy chiefs and security officials who
signed an open letter to Donald Trump in the last week, uh,
telling him that the Hamas capability has been degraded to
the point where it can no longer pose a threat
to Israel, uh, that the war should stop, the negotiations
(08:15):
to release the hostages should begin or or resume, uh,
because it's only during ceasefires that any number of hostages beyond,
you know, a handful has actually managed to be recovered
and pleading with Trump to take this up with Netanyahu.
So Hamas doesn't have the capability to threaten Israel any longer.
It'll never be completely eradicated. But there'll always be fanatics.
(08:37):
But it can't threaten Israel the way it's currently constituted.
S1 (08:42):
Well, I really wanted to get into this because it
does seem very significant that just over this past week,
we have seen this divide open up within the IDF,
as you've just been mentioning, in particular with the army
chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, because him and Netanyahu actually
sort of I think they descended into a war of words.
So tell us a bit more about this, about the
pushback that we're seeing from this Army chief of staff
(09:03):
in particular, and also from other real notable, I guess,
former officials, including former Israeli PM Ehud Barak and former
Israeli PM Ehud Olmert.
S2 (09:14):
Yes, the army leadership, apparently from everything we can read,
see and hear from the Israeli system, argued quite strongly
against this new phase of increased occupation of Gaza. And yes,
we've heard from the former prime minister, also former head
(09:35):
of the army, uh, Ehud Barak, who apart from anything else,
just happens to be along with two other Israelis, uh,
in the same stratosphere, the most decorated officer in the
history of the Israeli Defense Forces. And he's made the
point that Israel should now be pivoting. And I'll quote
(09:56):
now towards a broader deal. Release all the hostages, living
and dead, end the war and pursue a peaceful regional order.
S6 (10:04):
We can afford, from a position of strength, to put
an end to this war, to bring the hostages open
a new chapter trying to replace, uh, Hamas in Gaza
by another legitimate power, which will be legitimate in the
minds of the international community.
S2 (10:23):
Barack also went on to explain why nobody should expect
Netanyahu to take this obvious option, which would serve the
interests of the hostages, the interests of peace, the interests
of the Israeli troops, the interests of the Palestinian civilians,
and also the larger question that he raises of a
(10:45):
peaceful regional order. And he says Netanyahu will reject this
constructive solution because, says Ehud Barak, embracing this path would
break Netanyahu's coalition and likely end his political career. The
prime minister is not acting in the national interest. He
is acting purely for self-preservation, says Barak. Every other argument
(11:10):
is a smokescreen.
S6 (11:12):
This is a war of deception, has nothing to do
with the security of Israel or its interests. It's about
keeping alive the coalition and Netanyahu, because today that's.
S2 (11:23):
Pretty emphatic stuff from the former army chief, former prime
minister and most decorated soldier in the history of Israel.
S1 (11:31):
I mean, it really is. And it's interesting to me
that not only that he has said this, but that
we've had really, really strong condemnation of Netanyahu's plan from
other people as well. I know I mentioned former Israeli
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and he has previously said that
Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza. He also says,
you know, we should end the war right away with
(11:52):
a one phase agreement on the basis of a very
tight and firm commitment from Israel, not just to end
the war, but to pull out from Gaza. That's what
he told our colleague Matt, not just on Monday. So
this brings us to the crux of your article, which is, well,
if Netanyahu is getting so much pushback from so many
reputable sources within his own country, his own military, why?
(12:13):
Why is he wanting to push forward?
S2 (12:16):
There are three factors. Uh, the immediate is to hold
together that coalition, as Ehud Barak has said. Now, he
has depended on the support to continue in coalition government
of two far right ministers, uh, his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich,
and the national Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir. These men are
(12:39):
fanatics who want continuous action. Continuous military action against Gaza
and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, as well
in favor of expanding endlessly, continuously expanding settlements there. Now
(13:00):
these men will never be satisfied and demand continuous warfare.
They regularly threaten to quit the government unless Netanyahu obliges them.
And even with Netanyahu's latest declaration of an extended action
and increased occupation, um, they've expressed dissatisfaction and want him
(13:22):
to go further. Uh, or at least Smotrich has demanded
that he go further. So these people are real outliers
in the Israeli system. And yet Netanyahu depends on them
now because he depends on them. He cannot afford to
alienate them, and therefore he puts their priorities ahead of
(13:43):
all those other equities that we've already mentioned. Now, why
is he so desperate to keep the coalition together? Why
doesn't he accept that the coalition will collapse, try to
create a new coalition, or allow Israel to go to
an election to choose a new government? Well, the point
(14:04):
that Ehud Barak makes about Netanyahu and his self-preservation. It
goes to this. There's a whole raft of reckonings waiting
for Netanyahu the moment he's out of power. The first
one is that most Israelis hold him responsible for the
security failures that allowed the Hamas attack on October 7th, 2023.
(14:30):
There's been no accountability. and Netanyahu has refused to constitute
a national inquiry or investigation. To allow his role and
the role of his government to be investigated. The heads
of some of the military services have resigned to accept
their responsibility, but the Prime Minister refuses. So he's trying
(14:52):
to protect himself from any accountability there. But he's also
got the other factor looming in his post prime ministerial life.
Are the three corruption cases still pending against him in
the Israeli court system? So he wants neither to be
held accountable for the October 7th Hamas atrocities, nor for
(15:15):
the three corruption cases still pending against him. And the
only way he can do that is by holding on
to power. And the only way he can hold on
to power is to gratify those far right ministers in
his cabinet. So that is the driver. That is why
he will not stop the war, will not negotiate a
hostage release will not take the pressure off the army
(15:35):
will not heed the army chief of staff's advice. It's self-preservation.
S1 (15:46):
We'll be right back. And you know you've written that.
So really, he's beholden to what you say is the
most mutinous members of his cabinet. And I think one
of the starkest, I guess, points that you made in
your article was that his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, just
(16:09):
on Saturday, he criticized Netanyahu for half measures in Gaza
when so many global leaders are, of course, saying just
the opposite, that he must not do this. You know,
Albanese has said that Netanyahu is in denial about the
humanitarian crisis in Gaza. So I guess my question is,
are we going to see them push him into annexing Gaza. Like,
(16:29):
is this the next step, do you think? Is this
what we should all be on the lookout for? If
Netanyahu isn't somehow or cannot be somehow pulled back from
the brink of continuing this war.
S2 (16:38):
Well, that is their preferred position. Yes. For Israel to
annex and to, they say, allow the voluntary mass migration
of Palestinians out of Gaza to go where? Well, that's
the difficulty. Um, none of the neighboring Arab countries want
a large number of Palestinians, even if the Palestinians are
ready to leave and no one else is prepared to
(17:00):
take them. So it's not really, um, a genuine option.
But yes, as long as they are in power, they
will continue to push for, uh, continuous action against Palestinians
and the annexing in full by Israel of Gaza and
the continuous expansion of the Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Yes,
(17:23):
there's there's no satisfying them with anything short of all that.
S1 (17:28):
And I know this is a bit left of field,
but just on Monday we saw that Bono, the lead
singer of U2, wrote a piece that was published in
The Atlantic, and he was warning that unless Netanyahu lets
aid into Gaza immediately and ends this war, he's actually
going to achieve what none of Israel's enemies have managed
to achieve in 77 years, which is to plunge the
country into fundamentalism. Now, Bono is obviously no historian. He
(17:51):
is no expert in the military. But is this something
that Middle East experts are concerned about, too?
S2 (17:57):
Oh, look, in my view, no. If you look at
the opinion of the Israeli people, it's not aligned with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu is an outlier in his own country. The risk
of the whole population being prepared to vote for what
you've described as what Bono has called a fundamentalist government
(18:19):
or a fundamentalist leader or dictator is not is not plausible.
You can only make that assertion if you disregard the
wishes and the realities of Israeli democracy. I mean, the
only way that could happen really would be, um, you know,
some sort of fanatic takes power. But, um, you can
see where if he's just observing this from a distance,
(18:42):
where he can see the country heading into fundamentalist type behavior,
because these fanatic far right ministers in the Netanyahu government
seem to be pushing the country that way. But that
will only continue as long as Netanyahu manages to prevent
a democratic reckoning and to allow a new election and
to allow a new coalition government to form. That's what
(19:05):
will prevent, uh, any sort of, uh, fundamentalist regime in Jerusalem.
S1 (19:12):
Well, just further on that point, that Netanyahu really is
an outlier within his own country, and that most of
his country do not want him to continue to persecute this,
this really deadly war. I am wondering about that pushback
from within the IDF and from other military experts from
within Israel, whether it might likely bear fruit. I mean,
are there any chances that the IDF actually revolts and
(19:33):
simply refuses to obey Netanyahu's orders to occupy Gaza City?
Because we know that Benjamin Netanyahu's own son, Yair, has
accused the IDF military chief of attempting a military coup.
S2 (19:45):
Well, I think that's a nonsense claim, because we see, uh,
we saw while there was vigorous debate over the decision
to expand, um, occupation of Gaza once the decision and
the cabinet had ruled and the decision was made, uh,
the army chief salutes and gets on with it and
the army will execute that decision. Is there a risk
(20:08):
as you as you ask, that the Army will try
to mount some sort of a mutiny, coup or whatever? Uh, no.
This is a highly professional, highly disciplined military, but where
the load does become overbearing is on reservists, who have
to give up their civilian lives for protracted periods and
(20:29):
serve in very difficult conditions. The successful call out rates
of reservists turning out for duty when called, has been
falling in recent months and likely will continue to fall
because so many people are exhausted. Uh, want the war
to stop, the hostages to be released? That's the priority
for most. Is the hostages to be released. So I
(20:52):
think some of the conviction, as well as some of
the energy and sheer endurance of a lot of reservists,
is being taxed to the breaking point. That's where, uh,
the Army underperformance, uh, might start to impair operations.
S1 (21:07):
And obviously, this is, you know, a watch this space
day by day scenario in terms of what Netanyahu actually
chooses to do next, because we know that he's put
the IDF sort of on guard to prepare to invade
Gaza City. We don't actually know when he plans on
doing this, but what would it actually take for him
to to stop this war? Like, would it be enough
if Donald Trump pulled any military support, which isn't likely,
(21:31):
but would it take that? Would that even work?
S2 (21:33):
That is about the only foreign factor that could change
the course of Netanyahu's thinking. The other countries recognizing Palestine, um,
makes no difference to his essential calculus, which we've just
run through. And it's why the expectations that this might
somehow change Netanyahu's behavior are completely far fetched. The recognition
(21:56):
decisions are made to satisfy domestic political opinion and frustration, uh,
at the sheer impotence of the governments of Australia, Canada, um,
the UK. But if Donald Trump were to suddenly decide
to withhold American support, which would be the armaments that
(22:17):
the US supplies and sells and the aid that America
gives to Israel. That would be a punch to the
solar plexus of the Israeli system, and would impair their
ability to continue operations not only in Gaza, but their
operations to be able to defend themselves against the perpetual
(22:38):
enemy across the way, which, by the way, never gets
enough attention, which, of course, is Iran, which is at
the center of all the hostile proxies around the region
which are aiming for the destruction of Israel, including Hamas.
Hamas also is a is a proxy supported and created
by Iran. So if Trump did that, that would really
(23:02):
have a powerful effect on Netanyahu and the whole country.
But short of that, no foreign influence will make any difference.
S1 (23:10):
Well, thank you so much, Peter, for your time.
S7 (23:13):
Pleasure, Samantha.
S1 (23:25):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself
and Kai Wong, with technical assistance by Debbie Harrington. Our
executive producer is Tammy Mills. Our head of audio is
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(23:45):
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Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris.
(24:08):
This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,
August 14th. When Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of
the Israeli Defense Force, said last week that he objected
to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to expand the
(00:23):
fighting in Gaza. It set off a series of recriminations,
starting with Netanyahu's son Yair, who accused the army chief
of being behind a plan for a military coup. Today,
international and political editor Peter Hartcher on why an increasing
number of respected Israeli military experts and to former Israeli
(00:44):
prime ministers, are warning Netanyahu not to launch his controversial
expansion and how the Israeli prime minister is responding. So, Peter,
first off, I was hoping we could start with you
telling us what actually moved you to write your column
this week. Because it was very notable to me. You
(01:05):
really sliced through Netanyahu's decision with a surgical type precision
to reveal what you see is an almost mercenary selfishness.
So tell us what actually prompted this column?
S2 (01:14):
Well, I was writing it, Samantha, on the day when
the Australian government was announcing its intention to recognize Palestine
as a state at the UN General Assembly next month.
S3 (01:24):
Today, I can confirm that at the 80th session of
the United Nations General Assembly in September, Australia will recognize
the State of Palestine. Australia will recognize the right of.
S2 (01:38):
And it was a sort of an air of unreality,
I think, in the coverage and the commentary that I
was seeing and hearing. There was an air of unreality
about the effectiveness that this recognition would have rewarding terrorists.
S4 (01:53):
That's how Opposition leader Sussan Ley has described the PM's
push to recognise a Palestinian state and determine its leadership.
The government's decision is under major scrutiny tonight, with the
coalition vowing to reverse it if elected in three years time.
S2 (02:09):
So I thought it was important to explain to people
why this war is continuing, why Netanyahu, each time he
finishes a phase, starts another, launches another phase, often intensifying
but always continuing even after 20 months. And I thought,
(02:29):
people can see they see the images. They especially see
images of Palestinian suffering. So I just thought that I
would cut to the core driver here on the Israeli side.
And it's not because the Israeli public is demanding that
Netanyahu keep driving the war. It's not because the Israeli
(02:51):
army wants Netanyahu to keep driving the war. It's not
because the soldiers, many of whom are reservists and on
call up, are demanding that the war go on. But
I didn't see any indication that the Australian reading and
listening public were getting this information, so I thought I
would try to be helpful.
S1 (03:10):
Well, that's so interesting because it did sort of hit
me as sort of providing, I guess, clarity or a
real focus, I guess, really with the devastation that's happening
on the ground. I mean, obviously all of us are
seeing these ongoing images of destruction and loss of life
in Gaza. And then we also had that video of
the emaciated Israeli hostage who was reportedly directed to dig
his own grave. But like you say, all of that
(03:32):
commentary about recognizing Palestinian statehood seemed very divorced, I guess,
from that. But let's just step through your argument, because
you make the argument that Netanyahu doesn't care about the
lives of the remaining hostages. He doesn't care about whether
more Israeli soldiers die, or about what his own citizens want,
or about more people dying in Gaza. So tell us
how you came to this conclusion.
S2 (03:52):
Well, for a start, we know that he isn't at
all bothered by the continuously mounting death toll of Palestinians
civilians because if he were, he would order the aid trucks,
the food trucks to roll in, and he'd order the bombers,
fighter bombers and strike bombers out. Uh, so that's obvious.
(04:12):
But less obvious, I think, is that if he really
cared about the hostages, he would call a ceasefire or
end this phase of the war to negotiate the release
of the hostages. Now, this is not just, you know,
my sort of, you know, isolated thought bubble here. Three
quarters of the Israeli public want him to stop the
(04:35):
war and negotiate the release of the hostages. That is
the commanding condition on which Israelis predicate this war continuing
or stopping. Uh, Netanyahu is not making any serious effort
to embrace that, to end the war or call a ceasefire.
And in fact, as I was writing this, he had
(04:55):
only just announced an intensification with a new occupation of
Gaza City and perhaps central Gaza, areas that are not
currently occupied by the army as well.
S5 (05:07):
Israel's security cabinet instructed the IDF to dismantle the two
remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and the central camps.
Contrary to false claims, this is the best way to
end the war and the best way to end it speedily.
We will do.
S2 (05:24):
So. He's showing no interest in preserving the remaining hostages.
Disregarding the will of the Israeli people. Unconcerned for the
civilian death toll of the Palestinian people. But also another
much underreported fact, I think, outside Israel is that more
(05:44):
than 450. So excluding the October 7th Seven terrorist attacks
by Hamas. The atrocities perpetrated into Israel on that day.
Since then, more than 450 Israeli soldiers have died in
this conflict. Now Netanyahu, if he cared about them, he
(06:05):
would he would not keep intensifying. He would not keep
prolonging this war. And on the advice of his own
chief of army, the army chief of staff, the leader
of the Israeli military, we know from leaks to the
Israeli media that the army chief of staff had opposed
the continuation and escalation of this war, that he had
(06:29):
told his Prime Minister that it would erode the Israeli troops,
degrade their readiness and their capability, uh, as well as
seriously endanger the lives of the hostages. And Netanyahu, we
see from his decisions, has brushed all of that aside.
S5 (06:47):
Given Hamas's refusal to lay down its arms, Israel has
no choice but to finish the job and complete the
defeat of Hamas. Now we've done a great deal. We
have about 70 to 75% of Gaza under Israeli control,
military control. But we have two remaining.
S2 (07:06):
The soldiers themselves are you know, this has been a
long 20 month conflict, are suffering all sorts of exhaustion
and trauma. And most of them, the the, the conscripts
and the reservists are keen to get back to their lives.
So is it that there is some commanding Hamas force
(07:30):
that is still effective and is still waging war against Israel,
and is still capable of launching new attacks against Israel?
Not in Gaza, but in Israel itself. And the answer
there also is, is no, it's not. And we have
multiple testimonies to that effect, such as including, uh, the
(07:54):
600 Israeli former generals, spy chiefs and security officials who
signed an open letter to Donald Trump in the last week, uh,
telling him that the Hamas capability has been degraded to
the point where it can no longer pose a threat
to Israel, uh, that the war should stop, the negotiations
(08:15):
to release the hostages should begin or or resume, uh,
because it's only during ceasefires that any number of hostages beyond,
you know, a handful has actually managed to be recovered
and pleading with Trump to take this up with Netanyahu.
So Hamas doesn't have the capability to threaten Israel any longer.
It'll never be completely eradicated. But there'll always be fanatics.
(08:37):
But it can't threaten Israel the way it's currently constituted.
S1 (08:42):
Well, I really wanted to get into this because it
does seem very significant that just over this past week,
we have seen this divide open up within the IDF,
as you've just been mentioning, in particular with the army
chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, because him and Netanyahu actually
sort of I think they descended into a war of words.
So tell us a bit more about this, about the
pushback that we're seeing from this Army chief of staff
(09:03):
in particular, and also from other real notable, I guess,
former officials, including former Israeli PM Ehud Barak and former
Israeli PM Ehud Olmert.
S2 (09:14):
Yes, the army leadership, apparently from everything we can read,
see and hear from the Israeli system, argued quite strongly
against this new phase of increased occupation of Gaza. And yes,
we've heard from the former prime minister, also former head
(09:35):
of the army, uh, Ehud Barak, who apart from anything else,
just happens to be along with two other Israelis, uh,
in the same stratosphere, the most decorated officer in the
history of the Israeli Defense Forces. And he's made the
point that Israel should now be pivoting. And I'll quote
(09:56):
now towards a broader deal. Release all the hostages, living
and dead, end the war and pursue a peaceful regional order.
S6 (10:04):
We can afford, from a position of strength, to put
an end to this war, to bring the hostages open
a new chapter trying to replace, uh, Hamas in Gaza
by another legitimate power, which will be legitimate in the
minds of the international community.
S2 (10:23):
Barack also went on to explain why nobody should expect
Netanyahu to take this obvious option, which would serve the
interests of the hostages, the interests of peace, the interests
of the Israeli troops, the interests of the Palestinian civilians,
and also the larger question that he raises of a
(10:45):
peaceful regional order. And he says Netanyahu will reject this
constructive solution because, says Ehud Barak, embracing this path would
break Netanyahu's coalition and likely end his political career. The
prime minister is not acting in the national interest. He
is acting purely for self-preservation, says Barak. Every other argument
(11:10):
is a smokescreen.
S6 (11:12):
This is a war of deception, has nothing to do
with the security of Israel or its interests. It's about
keeping alive the coalition and Netanyahu, because today that's.
S2 (11:23):
Pretty emphatic stuff from the former army chief, former prime
minister and most decorated soldier in the history of Israel.
S1 (11:31):
I mean, it really is. And it's interesting to me
that not only that he has said this, but that
we've had really, really strong condemnation of Netanyahu's plan from
other people as well. I know I mentioned former Israeli
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and he has previously said that
Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza. He also says,
you know, we should end the war right away with
(11:52):
a one phase agreement on the basis of a very
tight and firm commitment from Israel, not just to end
the war, but to pull out from Gaza. That's what
he told our colleague Matt, not just on Monday. So
this brings us to the crux of your article, which is, well,
if Netanyahu is getting so much pushback from so many
reputable sources within his own country, his own military, why?
(12:13):
Why is he wanting to push forward?
S2 (12:16):
There are three factors. Uh, the immediate is to hold
together that coalition, as Ehud Barak has said. Now, he
has depended on the support to continue in coalition government
of two far right ministers, uh, his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich,
and the national Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir. These men are
(12:39):
fanatics who want continuous action. Continuous military action against Gaza
and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, as well
in favor of expanding endlessly, continuously expanding settlements there. Now
(13:00):
these men will never be satisfied and demand continuous warfare.
They regularly threaten to quit the government unless Netanyahu obliges them.
And even with Netanyahu's latest declaration of an extended action
and increased occupation, um, they've expressed dissatisfaction and want him
(13:22):
to go further. Uh, or at least Smotrich has demanded
that he go further. So these people are real outliers
in the Israeli system. And yet Netanyahu depends on them
now because he depends on them. He cannot afford to
alienate them, and therefore he puts their priorities ahead of
(13:43):
all those other equities that we've already mentioned. Now, why
is he so desperate to keep the coalition together? Why
doesn't he accept that the coalition will collapse, try to
create a new coalition, or allow Israel to go to
an election to choose a new government? Well, the point
(14:04):
that Ehud Barak makes about Netanyahu and his self-preservation. It
goes to this. There's a whole raft of reckonings waiting
for Netanyahu the moment he's out of power. The first
one is that most Israelis hold him responsible for the
security failures that allowed the Hamas attack on October 7th, 2023.
(14:30):
There's been no accountability. and Netanyahu has refused to constitute
a national inquiry or investigation. To allow his role and
the role of his government to be investigated. The heads
of some of the military services have resigned to accept
their responsibility, but the Prime Minister refuses. So he's trying
(14:52):
to protect himself from any accountability there. But he's also
got the other factor looming in his post prime ministerial life.
Are the three corruption cases still pending against him in
the Israeli court system? So he wants neither to be
held accountable for the October 7th Hamas atrocities, nor for
(15:15):
the three corruption cases still pending against him. And the
only way he can do that is by holding on
to power. And the only way he can hold on
to power is to gratify those far right ministers in
his cabinet. So that is the driver. That is why
he will not stop the war, will not negotiate a
hostage release will not take the pressure off the army
(15:35):
will not heed the army chief of staff's advice. It's self-preservation.
S1 (15:46):
We'll be right back. And you know you've written that.
So really, he's beholden to what you say is the
most mutinous members of his cabinet. And I think one
of the starkest, I guess, points that you made in
your article was that his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, just
(16:09):
on Saturday, he criticized Netanyahu for half measures in Gaza
when so many global leaders are, of course, saying just
the opposite, that he must not do this. You know,
Albanese has said that Netanyahu is in denial about the
humanitarian crisis in Gaza. So I guess my question is,
are we going to see them push him into annexing Gaza. Like,
(16:29):
is this the next step, do you think? Is this
what we should all be on the lookout for? If
Netanyahu isn't somehow or cannot be somehow pulled back from
the brink of continuing this war.
S2 (16:38):
Well, that is their preferred position. Yes. For Israel to
annex and to, they say, allow the voluntary mass migration
of Palestinians out of Gaza to go where? Well, that's
the difficulty. Um, none of the neighboring Arab countries want
a large number of Palestinians, even if the Palestinians are
ready to leave and no one else is prepared to
(17:00):
take them. So it's not really, um, a genuine option.
But yes, as long as they are in power, they
will continue to push for, uh, continuous action against Palestinians
and the annexing in full by Israel of Gaza and
the continuous expansion of the Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Yes,
(17:23):
there's there's no satisfying them with anything short of all that.
S1 (17:28):
And I know this is a bit left of field,
but just on Monday we saw that Bono, the lead
singer of U2, wrote a piece that was published in
The Atlantic, and he was warning that unless Netanyahu lets
aid into Gaza immediately and ends this war, he's actually
going to achieve what none of Israel's enemies have managed
to achieve in 77 years, which is to plunge the
country into fundamentalism. Now, Bono is obviously no historian. He
(17:51):
is no expert in the military. But is this something
that Middle East experts are concerned about, too?
S2 (17:57):
Oh, look, in my view, no. If you look at
the opinion of the Israeli people, it's not aligned with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu is an outlier in his own country. The risk
of the whole population being prepared to vote for what
you've described as what Bono has called a fundamentalist government
(18:19):
or a fundamentalist leader or dictator is not is not plausible.
You can only make that assertion if you disregard the
wishes and the realities of Israeli democracy. I mean, the
only way that could happen really would be, um, you know,
some sort of fanatic takes power. But, um, you can
see where if he's just observing this from a distance,
(18:42):
where he can see the country heading into fundamentalist type behavior,
because these fanatic far right ministers in the Netanyahu government
seem to be pushing the country that way. But that
will only continue as long as Netanyahu manages to prevent
a democratic reckoning and to allow a new election and
to allow a new coalition government to form. That's what
(19:05):
will prevent, uh, any sort of, uh, fundamentalist regime in Jerusalem.
S1 (19:12):
Well, just further on that point, that Netanyahu really is
an outlier within his own country, and that most of
his country do not want him to continue to persecute this,
this really deadly war. I am wondering about that pushback
from within the IDF and from other military experts from
within Israel, whether it might likely bear fruit. I mean,
are there any chances that the IDF actually revolts and
(19:33):
simply refuses to obey Netanyahu's orders to occupy Gaza City?
Because we know that Benjamin Netanyahu's own son, Yair, has
accused the IDF military chief of attempting a military coup.
S2 (19:45):
Well, I think that's a nonsense claim, because we see, uh,
we saw while there was vigorous debate over the decision
to expand, um, occupation of Gaza once the decision and
the cabinet had ruled and the decision was made, uh,
the army chief salutes and gets on with it and
the army will execute that decision. Is there a risk
(20:08):
as you as you ask, that the Army will try
to mount some sort of a mutiny, coup or whatever? Uh, no.
This is a highly professional, highly disciplined military, but where
the load does become overbearing is on reservists, who have
to give up their civilian lives for protracted periods and
(20:29):
serve in very difficult conditions. The successful call out rates
of reservists turning out for duty when called, has been
falling in recent months and likely will continue to fall
because so many people are exhausted. Uh, want the war
to stop, the hostages to be released? That's the priority
for most. Is the hostages to be released. So I
(20:52):
think some of the conviction, as well as some of
the energy and sheer endurance of a lot of reservists,
is being taxed to the breaking point. That's where, uh,
the Army underperformance, uh, might start to impair operations.
S1 (21:07):
And obviously, this is, you know, a watch this space
day by day scenario in terms of what Netanyahu actually
chooses to do next, because we know that he's put
the IDF sort of on guard to prepare to invade
Gaza City. We don't actually know when he plans on
doing this, but what would it actually take for him
to to stop this war? Like, would it be enough
if Donald Trump pulled any military support, which isn't likely,
(21:31):
but would it take that? Would that even work?
S2 (21:33):
That is about the only foreign factor that could change
the course of Netanyahu's thinking. The other countries recognizing Palestine, um,
makes no difference to his essential calculus, which we've just
run through. And it's why the expectations that this might
somehow change Netanyahu's behavior are completely far fetched. The recognition
(21:56):
decisions are made to satisfy domestic political opinion and frustration, uh,
at the sheer impotence of the governments of Australia, Canada, um,
the UK. But if Donald Trump were to suddenly decide
to withhold American support, which would be the armaments that
(22:17):
the US supplies and sells and the aid that America
gives to Israel. That would be a punch to the
solar plexus of the Israeli system, and would impair their
ability to continue operations not only in Gaza, but their
operations to be able to defend themselves against the perpetual
(22:38):
enemy across the way, which, by the way, never gets
enough attention, which, of course, is Iran, which is at
the center of all the hostile proxies around the region
which are aiming for the destruction of Israel, including Hamas.
Hamas also is a is a proxy supported and created
by Iran. So if Trump did that, that would really
(23:02):
have a powerful effect on Netanyahu and the whole country.
But short of that, no foreign influence will make any difference.
S1 (23:10):
Well, thank you so much, Peter, for your time.
S7 (23:13):
Pleasure, Samantha.
S1 (23:25):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself
and Kai Wong, with technical assistance by Debbie Harrington. Our
executive producer is Tammy Mills. Our head of audio is
Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of The
Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy the
show and want more of our journalism, subscribe to our
(23:45):
newspapers today. It's the best way to support what we do.
Search The Age or smh.com.au. Subscribe and sign up for
our newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the day's
most important news, analysis and insights in your inbox every day.
Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris.
(24:08):
This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.
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