October 13, 2025 • 27 mins
The 20 surviving Israeli hostages who had been held captive by Hamas in Gaza, have finally been released.The Israeli Defence Force has released the first images of freed hostages, including the embrace of twin brothers Gali and Ziv Berman. The pair were reportedly separated on their first day of captivity in Gaza.Meanwhile, American president Donald Trump has declared the war in Gaza is over. But the truth is far more complicated.
Today, Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies and founding director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the ANU, on what we can expect in the next few days. And the likelihood that this ceasefire and Trump’s 20-point plan, will lead to lasting peace.
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S1 (00:02):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris. It
is the day that felt like it would never come.
The 20 surviving Israeli hostages, who had been held captive
by Hamas in Gaza for two years, have finally been released.
S2 (00:25):
The mother of Matanza Gorka, speaking to her son on
a video call as she made her way towards him.
The war has ended, she says. You're coming home.
S1 (00:34):
The Israeli Defence Force has released the first images of
the former hostages. One shows twin brothers Gali and Zeev
Berman embracing. The pair were reportedly separated on their first
day of captivity in Gaza. Meanwhile, American President Donald Trump
has declared that the war in Gaza is over. But
(00:55):
the truth is a lot more complicated.
S2 (00:58):
The relief being felt in Israel follows desperate scenes in Gaza.
Much needed aid is moving into the territory, but there's
not yet enough to meet demand.
S1 (01:08):
Today, Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central
Asian studies and founding director of the centre for Arab
and Islamic Studies at the Anu, on what we can
expect in the next few days and the likelihood that
this ceasefire and Trump's 20 point peace plan will lead
to lasting peace. So, Amin, I have to ask you,
(01:34):
of course, about the hostages, which just on Monday evening
as we're recording this are being released. So can you
just first tell us about the first seven hostages who've
been released by Hamas, and they've now been delivered to
the Israeli Defence Forces. Who are they?
S3 (01:48):
Well, I think they are the ones who were captured
or detained by Hamas on the 7th of October, 2023.
And of course, they've been languishing in various tunnels and
hiding places for a long time, and it is indeed
(02:08):
a moment of relief. And of course, also recovery for
the hostages.
S4 (02:13):
The 20 men released today are aged between 21 and 48.
All were abducted on October 7th, 2023, taken from Kibbutzes
along the border or from the Nova music Festival.
S5 (02:26):
I'm so excited. I'm full of happiness and it's hard
to imagine how I feel this moment.
S3 (02:38):
The scene was very jubilant. They were all waiting to
welcome the hostages and particularly the families of the hostages.
And at the same time, of course, the people of
Israel as a whole. I would be extremely happy to
see the end of what they have experienced over the
last two years. But at the same time, it is
a moment of glory for President Trump. But perhaps a
(03:04):
moment of humility for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who fought
Hamas and demolished Gaza and at the cost of an
enormous number of lives there. And yet he was not
able to achieve what has been achieved now through negotiation
and a peaceful process of transfer of those hostages to Israel.
S4 (03:28):
US President Donald Trump, confident as he travelled to Israel,
declaring on Air Force One.
S6 (03:35):
War is over. The war is over. Okay. Do you
understand that?
S1 (03:39):
But of course, following that, Israel is set to release
Palestinian prisoners. So can you talk to us about the
significance of that and just whatever details you have, you
know how many people are expected to be released and
are there any particular prisoners that are really contentious?
S3 (03:56):
Well, I think it has been reported that Israel will
hand back something like about 2000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
And I think they've said that about 200 of them
have been committed to for, uh, you know, high crimes.
But the rest of them were the people who were
(04:17):
detained during the operations from Gaza. Uh, Hamas has proposed
a number of names, which proved to be contentious. And
I think it's still the negotiation is going on about that,
as far as I know. And one of the people
that that has been included is Marwan Barghouti, uh, who was, uh, arrested. Uh,
(04:37):
you know, something like 20 years ago. And he's been
imprisoned for life. Marwan is a very dynamic figure. He's
somebody who's been accepted by, uh, all the parties within
the Palestinian nationalist movement. And he is a person who
can actually unite the Palestinian nationalist movement. And at the
(04:58):
same time do more effectively with the Israeli authorities. He
knows Israel very well and he knows he's very knowledgeable
about the Israeli system works. I cannot really think of
anybody else at the moment who would be of the
same stature as Marwan Barghouti in terms of uniting the Palestinians. And, uh,
(05:19):
at the moment, I think the negotiation is still going
on about that.
S1 (05:24):
So while this is all going on, of course, you know,
there's been a massive humanitarian response that's been mobilizing to
bring aid into Gaza. So tell us about that. How
much is going in already, how much we're expected to
see go in imminently and remind us just how crucial
this step is. You know, how dire it is there
and how much the people there really need this aid.
S3 (05:44):
Well, the situation is extremely dire. I mean, as you know,
more than 90% of Gaza has been demolished and a
large number of Gazans have been displaced, and they are
in a very desperate need of food, water, Medical assistance,
about one third of the population suffering from famine at
the moment. I think it has been reported that humanitarian
(06:07):
aid has started flowing in in good numbers at this stage,
and I think they are expecting something like about 500
trucks to get into Gaza. But the Unicef spokesperson said
that I think that would have to continue for some
time before they reach a point that perhaps the Gazans
may have close to something sufficient enough food and water,
(06:31):
and also they want to really store up as much
as you could just in case the ceasefire breaks down.
And then there is another period of fighting. And I
think the Unicef and other United Nations agencies are very
conscious of that. So hopefully the humanitarian aid will continue
to flow into the Gaza Strip, because otherwise I think
(06:53):
we're going to see a lot more people die of
starvation and lack of medical care and so on.
S7 (07:00):
And so I guess. Tell us about what the next.
S1 (07:01):
Major stages of this peace deal are and when they're
likely to begin.
S3 (07:07):
Well, I think the next stage is that the Israelis
withdraw their forces from all of Gaza, and but they
still want to really control the perimeters of Gaza. And
the Hamas would need to disarm. Under the President Trump's
20 point plan, Hamas would be offered amnesty. Um, but
(07:28):
the Israeli prime minister has already made it clear that
they are not really going to give up on totally disarming, uh,
Hamas and totally disarming or demilitarizing Gaza. Hamas has said
that they're not going to lay down their arms until
such time that there is a Palestinian state. And of course,
(07:49):
that is really a way down the line. You know,
that really touches upon the concept of the two state solution.
And as far as I can ascertain, there is no
mention of the two state solution in President Trump's 20
point plan. But the demand of the international community is
that the current cease fire, and what may follow, should
(08:11):
really open the way for the two state solution. Um,
but in the past, the two state solution has basically
reversed Prime Minister Netanyahu's concept of Greater Israel. And of course,
that has been supported by some of his extremists, uh,
ministers and the cabinet. And, uh, so Netanyahu sort of
(08:32):
now sort of located in a very difficult situation in
the sense that on the one hand, there's the demand
of the population, that there's, uh, hostages should be secured
as soon as possible. On the other hand, his own
survival and his government's survival depends on the support of
some of the extremist parties within his shaky coalition. And
they wanted the continuation of the Gaza war and elimination
(08:55):
of Hamas altogether in any form.
S1 (08:57):
Well, I want to get into this issue, which is
really one of the most heated issues of this whole process, which,
of course is Hamas disarmament, because we know that Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he has long insisted that he
would not accept any agreement in which Hamas refused to disarm.
And of course, you've just walked us through that. Hamas
is saying that, well, until there's a Palestinian state, we're
not going to disarm. So does that mean that this
(09:20):
peace plan is just doomed almost out of the gate? Like,
do you think that this is going to lead to
it just falling apart, like within days or weeks?
S3 (09:28):
Well, it is doomed if both sides try to remain
absolutely insistent on those positions. Uh, but at the same time,
of course, there are rooms for compromise, and but that
really depends on how focused the President Trump himself is
going to be on the implementation of this plan and
how much he would put his own credibility on the line.
(09:49):
He's already done it to a considerable extent. I think
he would be very much relying on a number of
Arab countries, particularly Qatar. Qatar has emerged as a major
player in the region, and particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
and that is largely because Qatar is very closely allied
to the United States. And as recently, they have also
(10:12):
signed a security agreement, which means any attack on Qatar
would be regarded as an attack on the United States.
So President Trump has really committed the United States to
the security of Qatar. And that, of course, came in
the light of Israeli attack on Doha a few weeks ago,
which really irritated President Trump and people around him because
(10:34):
it was done without their knowledge. And the Prime Minister
had a meeting with President Trump and the white House.
S8 (10:40):
A Qatari diplomatic source telling Al Jazeera that Israel's Prime Minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu, has apologized to the Emir of Qatar for
the killing of a Qatari citizen during Israel's attack on
Hamas leaders here in Doha.
S3 (10:55):
Of course, this is the first time that the Israeli
Prime minister actually has apologized to an Arab head of state.
S1 (11:02):
Absolutely. It was an incredible moment. And it's really interesting
to me because you're just laying out there what an
important player the Qataris are in this entire process. And
like you've just said, the fact that Netanyahu bombed Qatar
that led to Trump, many believe strong arming Netanyahu into
agreeing to this current peace plan. So on the other
side of the coin, do you think Qatar would be
(11:23):
able to basically pressure Hamas into agreeing to say, disarm?
You know, in light of wanting to get this peace
plan to stick?
S3 (11:32):
Well, I have no doubt that both Washington, Cairo and
as well as, uh, Amman, uh, and possibly even Ankara
would put a lot of pressure on Hamas to reach
some sort of compromise on that issue. But at the
same time, it would really depend on what Hamas wants
(11:54):
to do. One thing that we have to really remember,
that Hamas is still regards itself as an important segment
of the Palestinian nationalist movement, and it does have a
considerable amount of support, not only in Gaza, but also
across the Palestinian territories in the West Bank. If there
is an election, there is a possibility that Hamas would
(12:19):
score really quite well, as it did in the 2006 elections,
which really won the elections. But of course, Israel and
some of its allies, including the United States, did not
accept the outcome of that elections because they expected the
Palestinian Authority, which had recognized the State of Israel, to
(12:39):
win that elections. And therefore Hamas was designated as a
terrorist organization and remained so to the present day. And
some of the Muslim countries, in particular the heads of
the Muslim countries, for example, President Erdogan of Turkey has
publicly announced that they do not recognize Hamas as a
terrorist organization, but rather as a part of the Palestinian
(13:02):
nationalist movement or as a resistance movement to the Israeli occupation.
S1 (13:11):
We'll be right back. Well, that's what I wanted to
ask you. You know, what are the chances that Hamas
would agree to disarm? Because, like you've just said, it
calls itself a resistance movement. Obviously, our government and many
others call it a terrorist organization. But isn't it also
(13:33):
the case? Just following on from what you've been saying,
that Hamas is much weaker than it was, say, even
a year ago? You know, it can't really rely on
Iran since it's been bombed as a reliable backer. It's
been decimated in terms of its military capabilities. Is that
a consideration, do you think, in their calculations in terms
of how much they might be willing to negotiate and
(13:55):
compromise on disarming in particular, and also on the issue,
the very sticky issue of accepting that they will not
have any role in governing Gaza.
S3 (14:03):
Well, it should be a consideration of Hamas, and Hamas
has lost, as far as I can ascertain, about 80%
of the fighting capacity. But it's still, uh, has been, uh,
in the field. I mean, the fact that Hamas has
been able to stay in the fight up to this point, uh,
that is also really indicates the weakness of the Israeli
(14:26):
Defense Forces that they've not been able to rescue more
than a dozen of the hostages through, uh, uh, use
of force. Uh, in fact, all the other hostages have
been released up to this point, have been through ceasefires
and therefore, uh, negotiated agreements between the two sides. So
(14:46):
Hamas seems to be of the opinion that it will
remain as a force in Gaza? Perhaps not necessarily, uh, very, uh,
you know, openly, uh, but uh, nonetheless, it does command
a degree of support in Gaza and therefore be able to, uh,
(15:07):
act as a maintainer of order, law and order in
the place. And let's not forget that, uh, an administration
to govern Gaza is not really going to come into
existence immediately in the second phase. It's going to take
a long time, because Hamas has said that they will
be happy to pass on the governance of Gaza to
(15:29):
a technocratic, uh, body of Palestinians and Palestinians. You're not
going to rent out Gaza to foreign forces in one
form or another. Uh, so there is a considerable amount
of gap between what Hamas wants and what, uh, Israeli
government wants. Uh, I think, this is going to be
(15:52):
a major challenge to mediators and of course, to Hamas
and the Israeli authorities, and how they can really reach
some sort of compromise which would be acceptable to both sides.
S9 (16:05):
And can you walk us.
S1 (16:06):
Through a little bit more? What is the plan in
Trump's 20 point plan with regards to who will govern Gaza,
both in the interim and then longer term? And I
guess what the what you think the possibility that this
will actually work and stick.
S3 (16:20):
Well, President Trump has stated that there's going to be
what you call it, a peace board. And he said
that he would be happy to share it. This board
would be made up of representatives from the various Arab countries,
as well as, for example, Tony Blair, the former prime
minister of Britain would be on it. But I must
(16:42):
really say that Tony Blair does not carry much credibility
with the Palestinians, or, for that matter, with some of
the Arab countries because of his involvement in the Iraq War.
But this peace body that President Trump talks about is
sort of having an overseeing role. And then there has
to be an administration. There are a lot of unanswered
questions at this point that who is going to really
(17:06):
run this administration in the first place? I mean, um,
Hamas says that, you know, it's the only force that
can really do it. And it's very interesting that just
in the last 24 hours since the ceasefire has come
into force, Hamas security forces have come out and trying to, uh,
establish their, uh, rule and, uh, basically outmaneuver a number
(17:28):
of other groups which have been financed by the Israelis, uh,
in confronting, uh, Hamas. And also, there are a number
of chieftains in Gaza that have not been very much
in favor of Hamas. And in fact, the latest report
that I have received, Hamas, has been, uh, trying to
basically marginalize these groups already. So, uh, you know, who's
(17:51):
going to really maintain law and order in the country
and who's going to be involved in this technocratic administration
that is supposed to be set up, uh, from, uh,
ranks of the Palestinians? And what is going to be
the role of the Palestinian Authority, which is very much,
at least nominally in charge of governance of the West Bank.
(18:14):
I think these are the sort of issues which have
to be really addressed. And of course, the President Trump
has said that, look, we are at the moment focused
on the first phase of the plan, but the rest
of it can be negotiated. Well, you know, once it
gets into the stage of negotiations, it can be very,
very complex and very arduous.
S1 (18:31):
And I really want to ask you about the Israeli
side of things. What's your perspective on what incentives Israel
has to keep the ceasefire and what incentives it might
have to break it?
S3 (18:41):
Well, I mean, we know that Prime Minister Netanyahu, from
the very beginning had outlined two major objectives. One was
to rescue the hostages, and the other one was to
wipe out Hamas altogether. But I don't think he's been
entirely successful on either of those fronts. And I think
(19:01):
he himself remains a very much a frustrated individual at
the moment. Along with those people who've been really supporting him.
But at the same time, his own personal, uh, power
status is in question. I mean, if he fails in
the process, uh, then he faces, uh, charges of fraud
(19:25):
and loss of public trust, and he will be tried.
At the moment he is postponed his trial. Uh, and
he could possibly, uh, end up in jail himself. Uh,
at the same time, he's been indicted by the International
Criminal Court. I mean, that is another thing which is
really hanging over him. So one could really expect a
(19:45):
prime Minister, Netanyahu, an extremist supporters, to make sure that
the situation does not really develop to the point that
whereby their own personal, uh, status and powers will become
seriously there will be in serious danger.
S1 (20:04):
Okay, so that would answer, I guess, part of the
question about what might, uh, disincentivize Netanyahu to keep this
cease fire. So what would actually be his incentives to
actually keep it?
S3 (20:14):
Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability. It is
very difficult to make a firm prediction that, yes, this
ceasefire will definitely work and the ceasefire will eventually lead
to more peace and security, not only in Gaza but
also for Israel. And at the same time, the war
(20:37):
will not break out again. I think there is every
chance that, uh, Prime Minister Netanyahu, uh, may engage in
the type of activities which could undermine, uh, And process
and as he has done in the past, and he
has said that, you know, his goal of wiping out
Hamas has remained unchanged. He's said that as late as yesterday.
(21:02):
And therefore, I think at the moment, I mean, while
I remain very hopeful in my heart, but at the
same time, my mind would have to make a very
critical assessment of the situation, and I hope very much
that the whole process will work out for the sake
of all sides involved. But at the same time, there
(21:22):
are many hurdles which have to be overcome. And I
think that's where not only President Trump, but also a
number of their Arab allies as well as Israel, could
play a very important role.
S9 (21:35):
But I have to.
S1 (21:36):
Ask you, so by that logic, you know, you're mentioning
there that Benjamin Netanyahu has said, of course, the whole
time that his goal is to wipe out Hamas. And
you've mentioned he just said it very recently, that again,
contradicts Predicts entirely what's in this 20 point plan? Because
of course, this plan offers amnesty. Very controversially, I think,
because it goes so much against what Netanyahu has been
saying the whole time. It offers amnesty to members of Hamas.
(22:00):
So I guess my question to you is then why
would he sign this if he has absolutely no intention
of actually carrying these steps out? Is it just I've
been strongarmed by Trump. I've obviously very displeased America by
bombing Qatar. I had no choice, but I have no
intention to keep it. Is that is that really what
you think his perspective is now?
S3 (22:20):
Well, I mean, you know, Prime Minister Netanyahu has come
under a lot of pressure in particularly from Washington. And
I think it's come to the point that he has
not been able to brush off the leverage that the
United States has over him and over Israel. Uh, and
President Trump is not really cut off the supply of arms.
It still remains very committed to the state of Israel.
(22:43):
And it will be addressing the Knesset. But of course,
it will be on the ground in Israel only for
three hours, and they will be flying to Cairo for
the signing of the agreement. So I think he has
really signed off on this agreement, or at least the
first phase of the agreement. Um, under enormous pressure. And also,
President Trump had told him that you cannot really fire
(23:04):
fight the whole world because it looks like that. I mean,
the international opinion has turned against Israel, and Israel is
now the most isolated and condemned state in the world.
And I think what President Trump has been trying to
do is not only to bring about a peaceful settlement
(23:25):
between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and particularly in Gaza,
but also, as he has said it in the past,
to save Israel. I mean, you know that Israel's reputation
in the world is standing in the world, and, of course,
also the position and the standing of the United States,
because the US has been accused of complicity in what
has transpired in Gaza. So I think at this stage,
(23:49):
Prime Minister, yes, has consented and supported the first phase
of the agreement. He has not said that I am.
He is also approve of the whole plan, and therefore
he approves the second phase and the third phase. And
the third phase, of course, is the reconstruction of Gaza.
And who is again, there are questions there. Who's going
to really participate in reconstruction of Gaza? I suppose President
(24:12):
Trump would assume that the oil rich states like Qatar
and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and so on, will play
an important role in that respect. But there is no
guarantee that, uh, um, the the amount of money which
is required, uh, I've come across of some estimates of
something like about 80 to $100 billion required in order
(24:34):
to rebuild Gaza. And that's a lot of money. And
how much the United States itself would be prepared to protect,
particularly all the problems that the US itself has.
S9 (24:43):
Okay.
S1 (24:44):
So you've walked us through, of course, so many hurdles
that even this 20 point plan will actually go ahead. Obviously,
there's questions about who would govern Gaza, and there's questions
about whether Hamas will disarm. And there's questions whether, of course,
Israel will agree to major points in the plan that
we haven't discussed, which, of course, is that Israel will
not occupy or annex Gaza. That's obviously a massive ordeal.
(25:06):
So I guess the question is, what are the chances
that this actually could lead to lasting peace? Like, what
are your hopes? You've said you're hopeful, but what are
your realistic views of that happening?
S3 (25:17):
Well, I don't want to be pessimistic. You know, when
we critically assess the situation, uh, I mean, after the
first phase, there is a lot of hurdles that needs
to be overcome. And I don't see how that can
happen very easily. And therefore, we are a long way
off from having a peace and security for Palestinian people
(25:42):
as well for Israelis. And we are really, really a
long way off from the concept of two state solution.
Although President Trump has said publicly that he will not
allow Israel to annex the West Bank. But then again,
Israel has been expanding its settlements in the West Bank,
(26:03):
and there is something like close to 900,000 Israeli settlers
in the West Bank. And Israel has just recently approved
another 3000 homes to be built on the West Bank,
which makes it extremely difficult to achieve the two state solution.
But nonetheless, the international community has recognized the State of Palestine,
(26:26):
and therefore they would need to really keep up the
pressure on Israel, as well as on Trump administration, to
stay on course as long as the ultimate objectives of
peace is required, and that is the two state solution.
S1 (26:42):
Well, thank you so much for your time.
S3 (26:46):
It's my pleasure. Thanks for having me.
S1 (26:54):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Kai Wong.
Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Our head of audio
is Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of
The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy
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(27:21):
up for our newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of
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inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm
Samantha Salinger Morris. This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris. It
is the day that felt like it would never come.
The 20 surviving Israeli hostages, who had been held captive
by Hamas in Gaza for two years, have finally been released.
S2 (00:25):
The mother of Matanza Gorka, speaking to her son on
a video call as she made her way towards him.
The war has ended, she says. You're coming home.
S1 (00:34):
The Israeli Defence Force has released the first images of
the former hostages. One shows twin brothers Gali and Zeev
Berman embracing. The pair were reportedly separated on their first
day of captivity in Gaza. Meanwhile, American President Donald Trump
has declared that the war in Gaza is over. But
(00:55):
the truth is a lot more complicated.
S2 (00:58):
The relief being felt in Israel follows desperate scenes in Gaza.
Much needed aid is moving into the territory, but there's
not yet enough to meet demand.
S1 (01:08):
Today, Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central
Asian studies and founding director of the centre for Arab
and Islamic Studies at the Anu, on what we can
expect in the next few days and the likelihood that
this ceasefire and Trump's 20 point peace plan will lead
to lasting peace. So, Amin, I have to ask you,
(01:34):
of course, about the hostages, which just on Monday evening
as we're recording this are being released. So can you
just first tell us about the first seven hostages who've
been released by Hamas, and they've now been delivered to
the Israeli Defence Forces. Who are they?
S3 (01:48):
Well, I think they are the ones who were captured
or detained by Hamas on the 7th of October, 2023.
And of course, they've been languishing in various tunnels and
hiding places for a long time, and it is indeed
(02:08):
a moment of relief. And of course, also recovery for
the hostages.
S4 (02:13):
The 20 men released today are aged between 21 and 48.
All were abducted on October 7th, 2023, taken from Kibbutzes
along the border or from the Nova music Festival.
S5 (02:26):
I'm so excited. I'm full of happiness and it's hard
to imagine how I feel this moment.
S3 (02:38):
The scene was very jubilant. They were all waiting to
welcome the hostages and particularly the families of the hostages.
And at the same time, of course, the people of
Israel as a whole. I would be extremely happy to
see the end of what they have experienced over the
last two years. But at the same time, it is
a moment of glory for President Trump. But perhaps a
(03:04):
moment of humility for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who fought
Hamas and demolished Gaza and at the cost of an
enormous number of lives there. And yet he was not
able to achieve what has been achieved now through negotiation
and a peaceful process of transfer of those hostages to Israel.
S4 (03:28):
US President Donald Trump, confident as he travelled to Israel,
declaring on Air Force One.
S6 (03:35):
War is over. The war is over. Okay. Do you
understand that?
S1 (03:39):
But of course, following that, Israel is set to release
Palestinian prisoners. So can you talk to us about the
significance of that and just whatever details you have, you
know how many people are expected to be released and
are there any particular prisoners that are really contentious?
S3 (03:56):
Well, I think it has been reported that Israel will
hand back something like about 2000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
And I think they've said that about 200 of them
have been committed to for, uh, you know, high crimes.
But the rest of them were the people who were
(04:17):
detained during the operations from Gaza. Uh, Hamas has proposed
a number of names, which proved to be contentious. And
I think it's still the negotiation is going on about that,
as far as I know. And one of the people
that that has been included is Marwan Barghouti, uh, who was, uh, arrested. Uh,
(04:37):
you know, something like 20 years ago. And he's been
imprisoned for life. Marwan is a very dynamic figure. He's
somebody who's been accepted by, uh, all the parties within
the Palestinian nationalist movement. And he is a person who
can actually unite the Palestinian nationalist movement. And at the
(04:58):
same time do more effectively with the Israeli authorities. He
knows Israel very well and he knows he's very knowledgeable
about the Israeli system works. I cannot really think of
anybody else at the moment who would be of the
same stature as Marwan Barghouti in terms of uniting the Palestinians. And, uh,
(05:19):
at the moment, I think the negotiation is still going
on about that.
S1 (05:24):
So while this is all going on, of course, you know,
there's been a massive humanitarian response that's been mobilizing to
bring aid into Gaza. So tell us about that. How
much is going in already, how much we're expected to
see go in imminently and remind us just how crucial
this step is. You know, how dire it is there
and how much the people there really need this aid.
S3 (05:44):
Well, the situation is extremely dire. I mean, as you know,
more than 90% of Gaza has been demolished and a
large number of Gazans have been displaced, and they are
in a very desperate need of food, water, Medical assistance,
about one third of the population suffering from famine at
the moment. I think it has been reported that humanitarian
(06:07):
aid has started flowing in in good numbers at this stage,
and I think they are expecting something like about 500
trucks to get into Gaza. But the Unicef spokesperson said
that I think that would have to continue for some
time before they reach a point that perhaps the Gazans
may have close to something sufficient enough food and water,
(06:31):
and also they want to really store up as much
as you could just in case the ceasefire breaks down.
And then there is another period of fighting. And I
think the Unicef and other United Nations agencies are very
conscious of that. So hopefully the humanitarian aid will continue
to flow into the Gaza Strip, because otherwise I think
(06:53):
we're going to see a lot more people die of
starvation and lack of medical care and so on.
S7 (07:00):
And so I guess. Tell us about what the next.
S1 (07:01):
Major stages of this peace deal are and when they're
likely to begin.
S3 (07:07):
Well, I think the next stage is that the Israelis
withdraw their forces from all of Gaza, and but they
still want to really control the perimeters of Gaza. And
the Hamas would need to disarm. Under the President Trump's
20 point plan, Hamas would be offered amnesty. Um, but
(07:28):
the Israeli prime minister has already made it clear that
they are not really going to give up on totally disarming, uh,
Hamas and totally disarming or demilitarizing Gaza. Hamas has said
that they're not going to lay down their arms until
such time that there is a Palestinian state. And of course,
(07:49):
that is really a way down the line. You know,
that really touches upon the concept of the two state solution.
And as far as I can ascertain, there is no
mention of the two state solution in President Trump's 20
point plan. But the demand of the international community is
that the current cease fire, and what may follow, should
(08:11):
really open the way for the two state solution. Um,
but in the past, the two state solution has basically
reversed Prime Minister Netanyahu's concept of Greater Israel. And of course,
that has been supported by some of his extremists, uh,
ministers and the cabinet. And, uh, so Netanyahu sort of
(08:32):
now sort of located in a very difficult situation in
the sense that on the one hand, there's the demand
of the population, that there's, uh, hostages should be secured
as soon as possible. On the other hand, his own
survival and his government's survival depends on the support of
some of the extremist parties within his shaky coalition. And
they wanted the continuation of the Gaza war and elimination
(08:55):
of Hamas altogether in any form.
S1 (08:57):
Well, I want to get into this issue, which is
really one of the most heated issues of this whole process, which,
of course is Hamas disarmament, because we know that Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he has long insisted that he
would not accept any agreement in which Hamas refused to disarm.
And of course, you've just walked us through that. Hamas
is saying that, well, until there's a Palestinian state, we're
not going to disarm. So does that mean that this
(09:20):
peace plan is just doomed almost out of the gate? Like,
do you think that this is going to lead to
it just falling apart, like within days or weeks?
S3 (09:28):
Well, it is doomed if both sides try to remain
absolutely insistent on those positions. Uh, but at the same time,
of course, there are rooms for compromise, and but that
really depends on how focused the President Trump himself is
going to be on the implementation of this plan and
how much he would put his own credibility on the line.
(09:49):
He's already done it to a considerable extent. I think
he would be very much relying on a number of
Arab countries, particularly Qatar. Qatar has emerged as a major
player in the region, and particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
and that is largely because Qatar is very closely allied
to the United States. And as recently, they have also
(10:12):
signed a security agreement, which means any attack on Qatar
would be regarded as an attack on the United States.
So President Trump has really committed the United States to
the security of Qatar. And that, of course, came in
the light of Israeli attack on Doha a few weeks ago,
which really irritated President Trump and people around him because
(10:34):
it was done without their knowledge. And the Prime Minister
had a meeting with President Trump and the white House.
S8 (10:40):
A Qatari diplomatic source telling Al Jazeera that Israel's Prime Minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu, has apologized to the Emir of Qatar for
the killing of a Qatari citizen during Israel's attack on
Hamas leaders here in Doha.
S3 (10:55):
Of course, this is the first time that the Israeli
Prime minister actually has apologized to an Arab head of state.
S1 (11:02):
Absolutely. It was an incredible moment. And it's really interesting
to me because you're just laying out there what an
important player the Qataris are in this entire process. And
like you've just said, the fact that Netanyahu bombed Qatar
that led to Trump, many believe strong arming Netanyahu into
agreeing to this current peace plan. So on the other
side of the coin, do you think Qatar would be
(11:23):
able to basically pressure Hamas into agreeing to say, disarm?
You know, in light of wanting to get this peace
plan to stick?
S3 (11:32):
Well, I have no doubt that both Washington, Cairo and
as well as, uh, Amman, uh, and possibly even Ankara
would put a lot of pressure on Hamas to reach
some sort of compromise on that issue. But at the
same time, it would really depend on what Hamas wants
(11:54):
to do. One thing that we have to really remember,
that Hamas is still regards itself as an important segment
of the Palestinian nationalist movement, and it does have a
considerable amount of support, not only in Gaza, but also
across the Palestinian territories in the West Bank. If there
is an election, there is a possibility that Hamas would
(12:19):
score really quite well, as it did in the 2006 elections,
which really won the elections. But of course, Israel and
some of its allies, including the United States, did not
accept the outcome of that elections because they expected the
Palestinian Authority, which had recognized the State of Israel, to
(12:39):
win that elections. And therefore Hamas was designated as a
terrorist organization and remained so to the present day. And
some of the Muslim countries, in particular the heads of
the Muslim countries, for example, President Erdogan of Turkey has
publicly announced that they do not recognize Hamas as a
terrorist organization, but rather as a part of the Palestinian
(13:02):
nationalist movement or as a resistance movement to the Israeli occupation.
S1 (13:11):
We'll be right back. Well, that's what I wanted to
ask you. You know, what are the chances that Hamas
would agree to disarm? Because, like you've just said, it
calls itself a resistance movement. Obviously, our government and many
others call it a terrorist organization. But isn't it also
(13:33):
the case? Just following on from what you've been saying,
that Hamas is much weaker than it was, say, even
a year ago? You know, it can't really rely on
Iran since it's been bombed as a reliable backer. It's
been decimated in terms of its military capabilities. Is that
a consideration, do you think, in their calculations in terms
of how much they might be willing to negotiate and
(13:55):
compromise on disarming in particular, and also on the issue,
the very sticky issue of accepting that they will not
have any role in governing Gaza.
S3 (14:03):
Well, it should be a consideration of Hamas, and Hamas
has lost, as far as I can ascertain, about 80%
of the fighting capacity. But it's still, uh, has been, uh,
in the field. I mean, the fact that Hamas has
been able to stay in the fight up to this point, uh,
that is also really indicates the weakness of the Israeli
(14:26):
Defense Forces that they've not been able to rescue more
than a dozen of the hostages through, uh, uh, use
of force. Uh, in fact, all the other hostages have
been released up to this point, have been through ceasefires
and therefore, uh, negotiated agreements between the two sides. So
(14:46):
Hamas seems to be of the opinion that it will
remain as a force in Gaza? Perhaps not necessarily, uh, very, uh,
you know, openly, uh, but uh, nonetheless, it does command
a degree of support in Gaza and therefore be able to, uh,
(15:07):
act as a maintainer of order, law and order in
the place. And let's not forget that, uh, an administration
to govern Gaza is not really going to come into
existence immediately in the second phase. It's going to take
a long time, because Hamas has said that they will
be happy to pass on the governance of Gaza to
(15:29):
a technocratic, uh, body of Palestinians and Palestinians. You're not
going to rent out Gaza to foreign forces in one
form or another. Uh, so there is a considerable amount
of gap between what Hamas wants and what, uh, Israeli
government wants. Uh, I think, this is going to be
(15:52):
a major challenge to mediators and of course, to Hamas
and the Israeli authorities, and how they can really reach
some sort of compromise which would be acceptable to both sides.
S9 (16:05):
And can you walk us.
S1 (16:06):
Through a little bit more? What is the plan in
Trump's 20 point plan with regards to who will govern Gaza,
both in the interim and then longer term? And I
guess what the what you think the possibility that this
will actually work and stick.
S3 (16:20):
Well, President Trump has stated that there's going to be
what you call it, a peace board. And he said
that he would be happy to share it. This board
would be made up of representatives from the various Arab countries,
as well as, for example, Tony Blair, the former prime
minister of Britain would be on it. But I must
(16:42):
really say that Tony Blair does not carry much credibility
with the Palestinians, or, for that matter, with some of
the Arab countries because of his involvement in the Iraq War.
But this peace body that President Trump talks about is
sort of having an overseeing role. And then there has
to be an administration. There are a lot of unanswered
questions at this point that who is going to really
(17:06):
run this administration in the first place? I mean, um,
Hamas says that, you know, it's the only force that
can really do it. And it's very interesting that just
in the last 24 hours since the ceasefire has come
into force, Hamas security forces have come out and trying to, uh,
establish their, uh, rule and, uh, basically outmaneuver a number
(17:28):
of other groups which have been financed by the Israelis, uh,
in confronting, uh, Hamas. And also, there are a number
of chieftains in Gaza that have not been very much
in favor of Hamas. And in fact, the latest report
that I have received, Hamas, has been, uh, trying to
basically marginalize these groups already. So, uh, you know, who's
(17:51):
going to really maintain law and order in the country
and who's going to be involved in this technocratic administration
that is supposed to be set up, uh, from, uh,
ranks of the Palestinians? And what is going to be
the role of the Palestinian Authority, which is very much,
at least nominally in charge of governance of the West Bank.
(18:14):
I think these are the sort of issues which have
to be really addressed. And of course, the President Trump
has said that, look, we are at the moment focused
on the first phase of the plan, but the rest
of it can be negotiated. Well, you know, once it
gets into the stage of negotiations, it can be very,
very complex and very arduous.
S1 (18:31):
And I really want to ask you about the Israeli
side of things. What's your perspective on what incentives Israel
has to keep the ceasefire and what incentives it might
have to break it?
S3 (18:41):
Well, I mean, we know that Prime Minister Netanyahu, from
the very beginning had outlined two major objectives. One was
to rescue the hostages, and the other one was to
wipe out Hamas altogether. But I don't think he's been
entirely successful on either of those fronts. And I think
(19:01):
he himself remains a very much a frustrated individual at
the moment. Along with those people who've been really supporting him.
But at the same time, his own personal, uh, power
status is in question. I mean, if he fails in
the process, uh, then he faces, uh, charges of fraud
(19:25):
and loss of public trust, and he will be tried.
At the moment he is postponed his trial. Uh, and
he could possibly, uh, end up in jail himself. Uh,
at the same time, he's been indicted by the International
Criminal Court. I mean, that is another thing which is
really hanging over him. So one could really expect a
(19:45):
prime Minister, Netanyahu, an extremist supporters, to make sure that
the situation does not really develop to the point that
whereby their own personal, uh, status and powers will become
seriously there will be in serious danger.
S1 (20:04):
Okay, so that would answer, I guess, part of the
question about what might, uh, disincentivize Netanyahu to keep this
cease fire. So what would actually be his incentives to
actually keep it?
S3 (20:14):
Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability. It is
very difficult to make a firm prediction that, yes, this
ceasefire will definitely work and the ceasefire will eventually lead
to more peace and security, not only in Gaza but
also for Israel. And at the same time, the war
(20:37):
will not break out again. I think there is every
chance that, uh, Prime Minister Netanyahu, uh, may engage in
the type of activities which could undermine, uh, And process
and as he has done in the past, and he
has said that, you know, his goal of wiping out
Hamas has remained unchanged. He's said that as late as yesterday.
(21:02):
And therefore, I think at the moment, I mean, while
I remain very hopeful in my heart, but at the
same time, my mind would have to make a very
critical assessment of the situation, and I hope very much
that the whole process will work out for the sake
of all sides involved. But at the same time, there
(21:22):
are many hurdles which have to be overcome. And I
think that's where not only President Trump, but also a
number of their Arab allies as well as Israel, could
play a very important role.
S9 (21:35):
But I have to.
S1 (21:36):
Ask you, so by that logic, you know, you're mentioning
there that Benjamin Netanyahu has said, of course, the whole
time that his goal is to wipe out Hamas. And
you've mentioned he just said it very recently, that again,
contradicts Predicts entirely what's in this 20 point plan? Because
of course, this plan offers amnesty. Very controversially, I think,
because it goes so much against what Netanyahu has been
saying the whole time. It offers amnesty to members of Hamas.
(22:00):
So I guess my question to you is then why
would he sign this if he has absolutely no intention
of actually carrying these steps out? Is it just I've
been strongarmed by Trump. I've obviously very displeased America by
bombing Qatar. I had no choice, but I have no
intention to keep it. Is that is that really what
you think his perspective is now?
S3 (22:20):
Well, I mean, you know, Prime Minister Netanyahu has come
under a lot of pressure in particularly from Washington. And
I think it's come to the point that he has
not been able to brush off the leverage that the
United States has over him and over Israel. Uh, and
President Trump is not really cut off the supply of arms.
It still remains very committed to the state of Israel.
(22:43):
And it will be addressing the Knesset. But of course,
it will be on the ground in Israel only for
three hours, and they will be flying to Cairo for
the signing of the agreement. So I think he has
really signed off on this agreement, or at least the
first phase of the agreement. Um, under enormous pressure. And also,
President Trump had told him that you cannot really fire
(23:04):
fight the whole world because it looks like that. I mean,
the international opinion has turned against Israel, and Israel is
now the most isolated and condemned state in the world.
And I think what President Trump has been trying to
do is not only to bring about a peaceful settlement
(23:25):
between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and particularly in Gaza,
but also, as he has said it in the past,
to save Israel. I mean, you know that Israel's reputation
in the world is standing in the world, and, of course,
also the position and the standing of the United States,
because the US has been accused of complicity in what
has transpired in Gaza. So I think at this stage,
(23:49):
Prime Minister, yes, has consented and supported the first phase
of the agreement. He has not said that I am.
He is also approve of the whole plan, and therefore
he approves the second phase and the third phase. And
the third phase, of course, is the reconstruction of Gaza.
And who is again, there are questions there. Who's going
to really participate in reconstruction of Gaza? I suppose President
(24:12):
Trump would assume that the oil rich states like Qatar
and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and so on, will play
an important role in that respect. But there is no
guarantee that, uh, um, the the amount of money which
is required, uh, I've come across of some estimates of
something like about 80 to $100 billion required in order
(24:34):
to rebuild Gaza. And that's a lot of money. And
how much the United States itself would be prepared to protect,
particularly all the problems that the US itself has.
S9 (24:43):
Okay.
S1 (24:44):
So you've walked us through, of course, so many hurdles
that even this 20 point plan will actually go ahead. Obviously,
there's questions about who would govern Gaza, and there's questions
about whether Hamas will disarm. And there's questions whether, of course,
Israel will agree to major points in the plan that
we haven't discussed, which, of course, is that Israel will
not occupy or annex Gaza. That's obviously a massive ordeal.
(25:06):
So I guess the question is, what are the chances
that this actually could lead to lasting peace? Like, what
are your hopes? You've said you're hopeful, but what are
your realistic views of that happening?
S3 (25:17):
Well, I don't want to be pessimistic. You know, when
we critically assess the situation, uh, I mean, after the
first phase, there is a lot of hurdles that needs
to be overcome. And I don't see how that can
happen very easily. And therefore, we are a long way
off from having a peace and security for Palestinian people
(25:42):
as well for Israelis. And we are really, really a
long way off from the concept of two state solution.
Although President Trump has said publicly that he will not
allow Israel to annex the West Bank. But then again,
Israel has been expanding its settlements in the West Bank,
(26:03):
and there is something like close to 900,000 Israeli settlers
in the West Bank. And Israel has just recently approved
another 3000 homes to be built on the West Bank,
which makes it extremely difficult to achieve the two state solution.
But nonetheless, the international community has recognized the State of Palestine,
(26:26):
and therefore they would need to really keep up the
pressure on Israel, as well as on Trump administration, to
stay on course as long as the ultimate objectives of
peace is required, and that is the two state solution.
S1 (26:42):
Well, thank you so much for your time.
S3 (26:46):
It's my pleasure. Thanks for having me.
S1 (26:54):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Kai Wong.
Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Our head of audio
is Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of
The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy
the show and want more of our journalism, subscribe to
our newspapers today. It's the best way to support what
we do. Search the Age or Smh.com.au. Subscribe and sign
(27:21):
up for our newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of
the day's most important news, analysis and insights in your
inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm
Samantha Salinger Morris. This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.
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