April 10, 2025 • 21 mins
No one fell off a stage this week, but we did see the two party leaders face off for their first debate, plus the Coalition released modelling of its gas policy.
With energy prices so crucial in this election, we are going to take a closer look at the Coalition’s gas plan - is it credible or is it just a cover-up for a nuclear policy that may never come off?
Chief political correspondent David Crowe and special first-time guest on the pod, business reporter Nick Toscano, join Jacqueline Maley to discuss the intricacies of gas supply.
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S1 (00:00):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Friday, April 11th.
No one fell off a stage this week, but we
did see the two party leaders face off for their
first debate. Plus, the coalition released modelling of its gas policy.
With energy prices so crucial for this election, we're going
(00:22):
to take a closer look at the coalition's gas plan.
Is it credible or is it just a cover up
for a nuclear policy that may never come off? Joining
us today, we have chief political correspondent David Crowe, as usual,
and as a special first time guest on the pod,
we have business reporter Nick Toscano who's going to explain
(00:42):
to us the intricacies of gas supply. Welcome, gentlemen.
S2 (00:46):
Thanks, jacki.
S3 (00:47):
G'day, jacki.
S1 (00:48):
Nick, thank you so much for joining us. I want
to go to you first, because gas supply is a
little bit of a complex policy area. Energy authorities have
been warning for quite a while now that we're going
to run out of gas on the East coast. And
yet Australia exports plenty of gas to other countries. So
what is going on exactly?
S2 (01:07):
Yeah. Well, for better or worse, jacki, we're we're fairly
hooked on gas here in Australia. And we we have
been for quite a long time. It's pumped from under
the seabed directly into the homes of millions of people
across the East Coast. We use it to power our
heaters and we use it in our stovetops for, for
cooking and and our hot water units. We've actually had
(01:27):
so much of it. It's been such a cheap and
abundant source of of energy and fuel for, for decades
that we've actually even translated into a giant export industry
in the past ten years. There's been massive terminals crop
up in in Queensland, which super chilled gas down to
a liquid loaded onto ships and sent it to Asia,
raking in billions of dollars a year in export revenue.
(01:48):
So I guess it's quite understandable that the fact that
we're facing a threat now of an actual gas shortage
domestically has a lot of people scratching their heads wondering,
how did we get into this ridiculous situation? And the
advice from the energy market operator is that it's happening
and it's happening fast. We could be headed for a
gas shortage in as little as 3 or 4 years
in the south east. So I guess when we think
(02:11):
about what's to blame here, obviously the focus turns to
the LNG shippers in Queensland. We we export far more
gas than we use domestically. I think we export about 70%
of the gas produced in Australia. And of course, if
we kept more of that supply here at home, then
it would go some way to alleviating the the imbalance
(02:32):
that we're seeing in supply and demand at the moment.
If they were forced to hold back more, or if
they if they just did. But that doesn't necessarily go
the whole way to explaining the situation we're in at
the moment. The second bit comes down to the fact
that Australia is just a really big country, and there
is sort of a lopsidedness to our fossil fuel endowment now, um,
(02:53):
the biggest sources of gas that have traditionally supplied our
homes and businesses in eastern Australia largely came out of
the Bass Strait between Victoria and New South Wales. They
at one point supplied two thirds of all the gas
we used for cooking, heating power and the like. Those
fields have now entered a period of rapid natural decline,
and there are basically no new supplies coming online that
(03:13):
are capable of replacing them at the scale we need.
And at the same time, the biggest gas fields we
have left are up in Queensland. But but there's only
one pipeline linking those Queensland gas fields down south into Victoria.
And in winter, when gas demand is at its highest
because of the need to run gas in heaters, that
pipeline is already often full, so gas can't get to
(03:37):
where it's needed at peak times. Then, when we look
at the West Coast energy producers like Woodside over there,
there's no pipeline connecting Western Australia's gas fields into Victoria
or New South Wales either. So it's a bit of
a complicated one. Yes, we're we're exporting gas overseas at
a time when supplies are running short here. But even
if we weren't, we'd still be in a position where
we're in a relatively tight spot because our old fields
(03:59):
are running out, and there's just no way of getting
the extra gas to where we need it.
S1 (04:03):
So we're not hearing any of that in the political debate,
which is interesting. David, can you tell us gas supply
was in the news a lot this week because Peter
Dutton has got a plan for it. What what exactly
is the coalition's policy on this?
S3 (04:15):
It's to reserve more of the Australian Gas so that
it stays here rather than being put on ships and
sold offshore. And that's a kind of message that is
popular with quite a few people. It's even got support
on the left of the political spectrum, not just the right. Um,
it addresses something that's been, I think, missed over 15
(04:37):
years in Australian policy because I guess the pivotal decision,
as Nick mentioned, was the opening up of new gas
export terminals in Queensland off Gladstone. Those three terminals take
domestic gas and ship it to Asia. And when they
were built, The Labour government at the time, and I
think the coalition government, just immediately prior did not reserve
(04:59):
the gas for the domestic market, did not say, look,
we'll build these terminals, but we'll keep 20% or 30%
for the domestic market. And that was a huge mistake.
We're paying for that mistake now.
S4 (05:10):
There is a lot of gas that's exported that we
could turn back into the domestic market. We can reduce.
As the independent analysis has shown, the cost of gas
by about 15%, and that means we can bring down
the cost of electricity. We can bring down the cost of.
S3 (05:24):
Peter Dutton talks about reserving gas, but of course he
also talks about changing the spot market contracts for those exporters,
which raises the question about sovereign risk for those companies
that have invested heavily. He also talks about having an
immediate or very, very early impact on electricity prices for
households and gas prices for households, something like a 7%
(05:47):
cut in household prices for gas and a 3% cut
in household prices for electricity. But I think there's a
huge leap of faith involved in thinking that he can
get that immediate impact by intervening in the market so heavily.
It's a complicated business, and I don't think he has
proven that point.
S5 (06:08):
The only gas policy that the coalition have is the
gas lighting of the Australian public. He disagrees with all
of the experts.
S1 (06:15):
Yeah. Well, this week Peter Dutton released economic modelling by
Frontier Economics on how the coalition gas policy would affect prices.
I note that people pointed out that the modelling had
a two year time frame imposed on it, but the
coalition itself is sort of unable to say or unwilling
to say how quickly the gas reservation scheme would be
(06:37):
up and running, basically. Nick, what did the modelling say
about electricity prices?
S2 (06:42):
The modelling looked at the impact of what happens if
we reserve all this extra gas, cause a flood of
gas and oversupply in the East coast market. What will
that do to to prices for both gas but also
for electricity. The modelling suggested that forcing an oversupply of
the size that Dutton is proposing could cut the wholesale
price of gas down to $10 a gigajoule. That might
(07:04):
not mean much to listeners, but it's about a 1,015%
reduction from from today's prices. In terms of how that
translates to the bills that you and I pay, it's
a little bit more complicated. The wholesale gas price is
what's what's paid by gas retailers who en sell it
to us, and large manufacturers who who by the by
the fuel directly. The modelling suggests that the impact on
(07:26):
household gas bills. So for using your stove or your
heater could reduce by 7% as as David mentioned. That's
not a heap. That's um at translate for for a
median gas bill in New South Wales, that's about $60
a year. And in terms of the impact on electricity bills,
the flow on there is because gas fired power generators
(07:47):
supply about 10% of the energy that we use in
the from the power grid. They estimate that the savings
there could be about 3% a year, which is also
not not a huge amount. That also translates to about
$60 a year, about a dollar a week for a
median bill pay. So we're not talking about massive savings, but, um,
(08:08):
you know, uh, for, for for you and I perhaps,
but Peter Dutton has been keen to sort of point
out that the savings that frontier has modeled perhaps could
also go beyond what you and I pay directly in our,
in our bills. You know, he points out that a 15%
reduction in the wholesale cost of gas could flow through
to other areas of the economy, you know, like the
(08:28):
cost for food processors, who who stock our grocery stores,
or the manufacturers of building products that have materials that
go into our homes. Um, but I guess the question
of whether or not consumers will actually notice the difference
of a slight reduction in gas prices, which is just
one input in, you know, a cost inflationary environment. I
guess that remains to be seen.
S1 (08:50):
Yeah. David, I mean, the gas policy that we're talking
about might be a bit of a distraction because it's
actually supposed to be just sort of the curtain raiser
or the stopgap measure for the coalition's grander policy of
nuclear energy, which is supposed to be the big fix.
The proposal by the coalition to build seven nuclear reactors
around the country using taxpayer money. And Dutton says that
(09:12):
will eventually lead to a 44% reduction in power bills.
Is this gas plan credible as a lead in to nuclear,
or is it a way of distracting voters from the
fact that nuclear is very expensive? It's taxpayer funded, and
most experts say that even if you could make it work,
(09:34):
it won't work until the 2040s.
S3 (09:35):
There is a political dimension here where clearly Peter Dutton
and the coalition don't want to talk too much about nuclear.
They've found that that's not a big winner in some
of the key seats they want to get. At the
same time, though, I think Nick and our colleague Mike
Foley have been reporting for a long time now on
the warnings about a gas shortage. Those warnings come from
the RUC. They come from the energy market operator. They're
(10:00):
in regular, annual or quarterly updates on the outlook. And
so there is this question to be confronted. Do we
need more gas or do we need to switch even
faster to other sources of energy and reduce our reliance
on gas, or do we need both? So in that
shortage environment, there's a clear message from Peter Dutton. When
you rise above the complexities and the awkward questions about
(10:24):
his policy, he clearly wants to open up new gas fields.
He wants the Beetaloo basin opened up in the Northern
Territory so that gas is sent down to the East coast. Now,
that requires a huge investment in the Beetaloo basin. It
also requires a big investment in pipelines to make it happen.
But he's pro gas. He's also pro gas. When you
(10:45):
think about other gas fields. There's the big Narrabri gas
field in northern New South Wales. It's been a dormant well,
not a dormant project, but a project waiting to move
for years. Um, the thing about a gas reservation plan
is that Santos, which is trying to open up the
Narrabri gas field, has always said that it would feed
(11:06):
it into the local market. So it was always going
to be reserved for the local market on the East Coast.
But it can't get those final environmental approvals. I think,
at the state stage at this point. And so it's
it's stuck. Peter Dutton is pro gas. I mean that
that is the big picture contrast. And it is actually
an important point when you think about the warnings from
the regulators about what we need.
S1 (11:28):
Sure. What I find interesting about this election, and, you know,
it is so focused on energy and cost of living
is top of mind for voters, with good reason. But
there's no no talk at all about emissions and carbon
emissions and how a gas policy and as you say,
opening up new sources of fossil fuels. Unlocking them would
affect our emissions agreements. Our commitments?
S3 (11:51):
Yes, it's secondary here. I mean, Peter Dutton's policy is
open up more gas fields off the coast of Western Australia.
I mean, he's backing in Woodside, which has got one
of those big gas fields. That's his stance. Anthony Albanese
also says we need more gas. Gas is part of
the transition to renewables, because those gas fired power stations
(12:15):
are very good at kicking in quickly. If there's any
shortage of wind and solar in the grid. And in fact,
the regulators say we are going to need more gas
fired power stations. And again, Nick and Mike Foley have
written that.
S5 (12:29):
So we want renewables backed by gas, backed by batteries
backed by hydro.
S3 (12:35):
So, you know, it's not like there is a future
where we don't use gas in the coming decades. It's
just a matter of emphasis where Peter Dutton is positioning
himself very strongly as the progress candidate here.
S1 (12:50):
Yeah. Nick, thank you for joining us. We'll let you
go because we're going to talk about polling now. That
was fascinating. And we might have you back on again
if we need this stuff unpicked because it is diabolically
complex but also incredibly important.
S2 (13:03):
Thanks, Jackie. Thanks, David.
S6 (13:04):
Cheers, Nick.
S1 (13:11):
So, David, I just want to segue now to do
a sort of general vibe check with you, because a
lot of the polling seems to be suggesting that Albanese
and Labor are gaining traction with voters, and that Dutton
and the coalition are losing traction. Dutton obviously had a
pretty poor first week of the campaign, but what is
your general vibe about who's going well and who's not,
or who's winning, if we can say that.
S3 (13:33):
I found it really interesting, uh, this week, uh, to
see the polling showing labor doing better. And it's one
of those things where you get a vibe in an
election campaign, but then you see data which tends to
confirm the vibe. And of course, we're all aware of
this really. It's the fact that the government started the
(13:56):
campaign in a strong way. We've seen Anthony Albanese being
very clear, very on message, no stuff ups in the
way that we saw in the 2022 campaign. And in fact,
it's been really interesting that there have been so many
mixed messages and awkward moments on the coalition side of
the campaign. And of course, the big standout is that
(14:17):
Peter Dutton had to dump his approach to working from
home and admit that they made a mistake and then
do this incredibly big backflip circling in the air in
full view. You know, they they didn't try to hide
the backflip. They had to make everybody aware of this backflip.
Now the polling came out before that. But of course
(14:38):
there'll be more polling. And we'll be talking about this
next week as well because it'll be such a running
thing in this campaign. But we are seeing this. We
are seeing a switch back to labor among key demographics
among men, among people aged from 35 to 54 in particular.
And I found it very interesting to see that young
(14:59):
men in that 18 to 34 age group are also
switching back to labor. But of course, we had labor
in a very sorry state at the beginning of this year.
So in a sense, there's a bit of a correction
going where as the election gets close, as people think
more clearly about what they really want to do, where
they want to cast their vote, they move a bit
(15:19):
back to the government.
S1 (15:21):
I mean, politicians always tell us, of course, that they
don't listen to the polls. And it's not, you know,
the only poll that counts is the poll on Election day.
But how important is that ineffable sort of sense of
momentum to a campaign when you're sitting inside the campaign
and the polls are confirming what everybody really is saying
in the media that you're not going so well?
S3 (15:42):
Yeah, I think journalists often use that word momentum, and
that's because it's a real thing. And so we use
that word to describe a reality in campaigns. But just
to sort of move away from getting stuck on one word,
it's really about the sense that the government's working in
a very coherent way at the moment, with Anthony Albanese
(16:04):
and the ministers around him, all on a fairly disciplined
message and all after putting a whole bunch of things
on the agenda, the Medicare spending, the urgent care clinics, um,
policy after policy, then the tax cuts in the budget.
Clear messages and really no stuff ups, some occasional moments
(16:25):
in the daily campaign where, you know, things come out
awkwardly on the coalition side. Um, I think that they've
been slower with their policy response, and I think that
they're now being caught out for not having put some
of their policy ideas on the table earlier, like we're
talking about their gas plan and we've got questions about
(16:47):
how it works. Well, why wasn't it on the table
two months ago with modelling with some more concrete, um,
examples of what they were going to do so that
everybody could evaluate it and they had more time to
sell it. I actually asked this question of Angus Taylor
when he spoke at the National Press Club. I said,
John Howard always used to say, you cannot fatten the
(17:07):
pig on market day. And I think that is what
the coalition has been doing in this campaign, coming out
a bit too late with their policies when, let's face it,
they've got about a week to go. Well, they've got
a week less than a week to go to Easter.
And then on the Tuesday after Easter, early voting begins.
(17:28):
They're running out of time to to get their message
to voters.
S1 (17:32):
Yeah. And to settle it into people's minds, particularly when
you're talking about gas, which which, as we've just discussed,
is quite a complicated area. Casting forward next week is
very make or break for a number of reasons. Can
you tell us why? David.
S3 (17:44):
Well, we've got a leaders debate for a start. And
that's Wednesday night at the ABC studio in Parramatta. So
it's got a Western Sydney kind of theme. But you know,
it's important for voters around the country because I'm not
seeing signs that there's going to be any other leaders debate.
We've got Easter, we've got Anzac Day weekend. There won't
be other opportunities for a big debate like this. So
(18:05):
that ABC debate becomes really important.
S1 (18:07):
And is it safe to say that more people will
watch that, given it's on the broadcast, public broadcast of
free to air, as opposed to the last debate this week,
which was Sky and sort of locked down, unless you're
a subscriber.
S3 (18:18):
I thought the Sky news leaders debate the other night was, uh,
was not going to budge a voter one way.
S1 (18:27):
Or the other. Yeah, that was my.
S3 (18:28):
I called it a draw. You know, I know there
are different views about who won. And the studio audience
said that the Prime Minister won. Fair enough. But I
think it was generally a draw. No knockout blows. But also,
let's face it, not that many viewers, really, not that
many viewers. So it would not have sunk in to
many voters. The most important outcome of that debate was
(18:48):
the headline across the media the next day about the
fact that Albanese won it because the studio audience said
that he won it. That was more important to the
campaign than anything that actually said on the night.
S1 (19:01):
Yeah. So next week we've got the ABC debate, I
think on Wednesday night, which we can assume more people
will watch than than did the last one. Well, we've
got Easter when a lot of people will switch off.
And also early voting starts. Right.
S3 (19:12):
Yeah. And I think that adds an intensity to the
campaign next week. When you think about the fact that
they've all got to have their plans on the table.
I mean, the idea of releasing a policy, say, in
the last week of an election campaign, I think that's
a highly risky thing to do. We saw Scott Morrison
do it in 2022 because he came out with the
(19:34):
superannuation for housing.
S1 (19:37):
I forgot about.
S3 (19:37):
That. In his campaign launch, one week before polling day
and early voting was already underway. And I don't think
that that, uh, well, I clearly didn't save him, and
it was controversial. I don't expect to see last minute
big policy manifestos during those two weeks of early voting.
You've got to have your message out by the time
(19:59):
people start their early voting. And I've written in the past,
despite all the complaints from political insiders about early voting,
Australians like it. They want to keep it. They'd have
two weeks of early voting and they'd have three if
they really had their say. So that's the way the
electorate wants to cast their votes, and the political leaders
have got to work with that.
S1 (20:19):
Well, some of us are very organised and very busy
and we need to go early and some of us
like the to go to the local primary school and
get a sausage on the day.
S3 (20:26):
Yeah. That's right. I mean, I tend to vote early
just to get it out of the way because I'm
busy on on Election day. But I do enjoy the, uh,
the color and movement of the, uh, the local school.
S1 (20:36):
Yes, it's about the spectacle. And also, um, you know, buying, um,
sausages from impoverished local schools. Um, we, um, cannot wait
to see you again next week. Thank you. That was
an interesting chat, as ever. And, um, we will see
you again soon. David.
S6 (20:51):
Cheers, Jackie.
S1 (20:54):
Today's episode was produced by Julia Katzel with technical assistance
from Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tami Mills, and
Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to
our episodes as soon as they drop, follow Inside Politics
on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen to your podcasts.
To stay up to date with all the election coverage
(21:14):
and exclusives, visit The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald websites.
To support our journalism, subscribe to us via Visiting The
Age or smh.com.au. Subscribe. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Friday, April 11th.
No one fell off a stage this week, but we
did see the two party leaders face off for their
first debate. Plus, the coalition released modelling of its gas policy.
With energy prices so crucial for this election, we're going
(00:22):
to take a closer look at the coalition's gas plan.
Is it credible or is it just a cover up
for a nuclear policy that may never come off? Joining
us today, we have chief political correspondent David Crowe, as usual,
and as a special first time guest on the pod,
we have business reporter Nick Toscano who's going to explain
(00:42):
to us the intricacies of gas supply. Welcome, gentlemen.
S2 (00:46):
Thanks, jacki.
S3 (00:47):
G'day, jacki.
S1 (00:48):
Nick, thank you so much for joining us. I want
to go to you first, because gas supply is a
little bit of a complex policy area. Energy authorities have
been warning for quite a while now that we're going
to run out of gas on the East coast. And
yet Australia exports plenty of gas to other countries. So
what is going on exactly?
S2 (01:07):
Yeah. Well, for better or worse, jacki, we're we're fairly
hooked on gas here in Australia. And we we have
been for quite a long time. It's pumped from under
the seabed directly into the homes of millions of people
across the East Coast. We use it to power our
heaters and we use it in our stovetops for, for
cooking and and our hot water units. We've actually had
(01:27):
so much of it. It's been such a cheap and
abundant source of of energy and fuel for, for decades
that we've actually even translated into a giant export industry
in the past ten years. There's been massive terminals crop
up in in Queensland, which super chilled gas down to
a liquid loaded onto ships and sent it to Asia,
raking in billions of dollars a year in export revenue.
(01:48):
So I guess it's quite understandable that the fact that
we're facing a threat now of an actual gas shortage
domestically has a lot of people scratching their heads wondering,
how did we get into this ridiculous situation? And the
advice from the energy market operator is that it's happening
and it's happening fast. We could be headed for a
gas shortage in as little as 3 or 4 years
in the south east. So I guess when we think
(02:11):
about what's to blame here, obviously the focus turns to
the LNG shippers in Queensland. We we export far more
gas than we use domestically. I think we export about 70%
of the gas produced in Australia. And of course, if
we kept more of that supply here at home, then
it would go some way to alleviating the the imbalance
(02:32):
that we're seeing in supply and demand at the moment.
If they were forced to hold back more, or if
they if they just did. But that doesn't necessarily go
the whole way to explaining the situation we're in at
the moment. The second bit comes down to the fact
that Australia is just a really big country, and there
is sort of a lopsidedness to our fossil fuel endowment now, um,
(02:53):
the biggest sources of gas that have traditionally supplied our
homes and businesses in eastern Australia largely came out of
the Bass Strait between Victoria and New South Wales. They
at one point supplied two thirds of all the gas
we used for cooking, heating power and the like. Those
fields have now entered a period of rapid natural decline,
and there are basically no new supplies coming online that
(03:13):
are capable of replacing them at the scale we need.
And at the same time, the biggest gas fields we
have left are up in Queensland. But but there's only
one pipeline linking those Queensland gas fields down south into Victoria.
And in winter, when gas demand is at its highest
because of the need to run gas in heaters, that
pipeline is already often full, so gas can't get to
(03:37):
where it's needed at peak times. Then, when we look
at the West Coast energy producers like Woodside over there,
there's no pipeline connecting Western Australia's gas fields into Victoria
or New South Wales either. So it's a bit of
a complicated one. Yes, we're we're exporting gas overseas at
a time when supplies are running short here. But even
if we weren't, we'd still be in a position where
we're in a relatively tight spot because our old fields
(03:59):
are running out, and there's just no way of getting
the extra gas to where we need it.
S1 (04:03):
So we're not hearing any of that in the political debate,
which is interesting. David, can you tell us gas supply
was in the news a lot this week because Peter
Dutton has got a plan for it. What what exactly
is the coalition's policy on this?
S3 (04:15):
It's to reserve more of the Australian Gas so that
it stays here rather than being put on ships and
sold offshore. And that's a kind of message that is
popular with quite a few people. It's even got support
on the left of the political spectrum, not just the right. Um,
it addresses something that's been, I think, missed over 15
(04:37):
years in Australian policy because I guess the pivotal decision,
as Nick mentioned, was the opening up of new gas
export terminals in Queensland off Gladstone. Those three terminals take
domestic gas and ship it to Asia. And when they
were built, The Labour government at the time, and I
think the coalition government, just immediately prior did not reserve
(04:59):
the gas for the domestic market, did not say, look,
we'll build these terminals, but we'll keep 20% or 30%
for the domestic market. And that was a huge mistake.
We're paying for that mistake now.
S4 (05:10):
There is a lot of gas that's exported that we
could turn back into the domestic market. We can reduce.
As the independent analysis has shown, the cost of gas
by about 15%, and that means we can bring down
the cost of electricity. We can bring down the cost of.
S3 (05:24):
Peter Dutton talks about reserving gas, but of course he
also talks about changing the spot market contracts for those exporters,
which raises the question about sovereign risk for those companies
that have invested heavily. He also talks about having an
immediate or very, very early impact on electricity prices for
households and gas prices for households, something like a 7%
(05:47):
cut in household prices for gas and a 3% cut
in household prices for electricity. But I think there's a
huge leap of faith involved in thinking that he can
get that immediate impact by intervening in the market so heavily.
It's a complicated business, and I don't think he has
proven that point.
S5 (06:08):
The only gas policy that the coalition have is the
gas lighting of the Australian public. He disagrees with all
of the experts.
S1 (06:15):
Yeah. Well, this week Peter Dutton released economic modelling by
Frontier Economics on how the coalition gas policy would affect prices.
I note that people pointed out that the modelling had
a two year time frame imposed on it, but the
coalition itself is sort of unable to say or unwilling
to say how quickly the gas reservation scheme would be
(06:37):
up and running, basically. Nick, what did the modelling say
about electricity prices?
S2 (06:42):
The modelling looked at the impact of what happens if
we reserve all this extra gas, cause a flood of
gas and oversupply in the East coast market. What will
that do to to prices for both gas but also
for electricity. The modelling suggested that forcing an oversupply of
the size that Dutton is proposing could cut the wholesale
price of gas down to $10 a gigajoule. That might
(07:04):
not mean much to listeners, but it's about a 1,015%
reduction from from today's prices. In terms of how that
translates to the bills that you and I pay, it's
a little bit more complicated. The wholesale gas price is
what's what's paid by gas retailers who en sell it
to us, and large manufacturers who who by the by
the fuel directly. The modelling suggests that the impact on
(07:26):
household gas bills. So for using your stove or your
heater could reduce by 7% as as David mentioned. That's
not a heap. That's um at translate for for a
median gas bill in New South Wales, that's about $60
a year. And in terms of the impact on electricity bills,
the flow on there is because gas fired power generators
(07:47):
supply about 10% of the energy that we use in
the from the power grid. They estimate that the savings
there could be about 3% a year, which is also
not not a huge amount. That also translates to about
$60 a year, about a dollar a week for a
median bill pay. So we're not talking about massive savings, but, um,
(08:08):
you know, uh, for, for for you and I perhaps,
but Peter Dutton has been keen to sort of point
out that the savings that frontier has modeled perhaps could
also go beyond what you and I pay directly in our,
in our bills. You know, he points out that a 15%
reduction in the wholesale cost of gas could flow through
to other areas of the economy, you know, like the
(08:28):
cost for food processors, who who stock our grocery stores,
or the manufacturers of building products that have materials that
go into our homes. Um, but I guess the question
of whether or not consumers will actually notice the difference
of a slight reduction in gas prices, which is just
one input in, you know, a cost inflationary environment. I
guess that remains to be seen.
S1 (08:50):
Yeah. David, I mean, the gas policy that we're talking
about might be a bit of a distraction because it's
actually supposed to be just sort of the curtain raiser
or the stopgap measure for the coalition's grander policy of
nuclear energy, which is supposed to be the big fix.
The proposal by the coalition to build seven nuclear reactors
around the country using taxpayer money. And Dutton says that
(09:12):
will eventually lead to a 44% reduction in power bills.
Is this gas plan credible as a lead in to nuclear,
or is it a way of distracting voters from the
fact that nuclear is very expensive? It's taxpayer funded, and
most experts say that even if you could make it work,
(09:34):
it won't work until the 2040s.
S3 (09:35):
There is a political dimension here where clearly Peter Dutton
and the coalition don't want to talk too much about nuclear.
They've found that that's not a big winner in some
of the key seats they want to get. At the
same time, though, I think Nick and our colleague Mike
Foley have been reporting for a long time now on
the warnings about a gas shortage. Those warnings come from
the RUC. They come from the energy market operator. They're
(10:00):
in regular, annual or quarterly updates on the outlook. And
so there is this question to be confronted. Do we
need more gas or do we need to switch even
faster to other sources of energy and reduce our reliance
on gas, or do we need both? So in that
shortage environment, there's a clear message from Peter Dutton. When
you rise above the complexities and the awkward questions about
(10:24):
his policy, he clearly wants to open up new gas fields.
He wants the Beetaloo basin opened up in the Northern
Territory so that gas is sent down to the East coast. Now,
that requires a huge investment in the Beetaloo basin. It
also requires a big investment in pipelines to make it happen.
But he's pro gas. He's also pro gas. When you
(10:45):
think about other gas fields. There's the big Narrabri gas
field in northern New South Wales. It's been a dormant well,
not a dormant project, but a project waiting to move
for years. Um, the thing about a gas reservation plan
is that Santos, which is trying to open up the
Narrabri gas field, has always said that it would feed
(11:06):
it into the local market. So it was always going
to be reserved for the local market on the East Coast.
But it can't get those final environmental approvals. I think,
at the state stage at this point. And so it's
it's stuck. Peter Dutton is pro gas. I mean that
that is the big picture contrast. And it is actually
an important point when you think about the warnings from
the regulators about what we need.
S1 (11:28):
Sure. What I find interesting about this election, and, you know,
it is so focused on energy and cost of living
is top of mind for voters, with good reason. But
there's no no talk at all about emissions and carbon
emissions and how a gas policy and as you say,
opening up new sources of fossil fuels. Unlocking them would
affect our emissions agreements. Our commitments?
S3 (11:51):
Yes, it's secondary here. I mean, Peter Dutton's policy is
open up more gas fields off the coast of Western Australia.
I mean, he's backing in Woodside, which has got one
of those big gas fields. That's his stance. Anthony Albanese
also says we need more gas. Gas is part of
the transition to renewables, because those gas fired power stations
(12:15):
are very good at kicking in quickly. If there's any
shortage of wind and solar in the grid. And in fact,
the regulators say we are going to need more gas
fired power stations. And again, Nick and Mike Foley have
written that.
S5 (12:29):
So we want renewables backed by gas, backed by batteries
backed by hydro.
S3 (12:35):
So, you know, it's not like there is a future
where we don't use gas in the coming decades. It's
just a matter of emphasis where Peter Dutton is positioning
himself very strongly as the progress candidate here.
S1 (12:50):
Yeah. Nick, thank you for joining us. We'll let you
go because we're going to talk about polling now. That
was fascinating. And we might have you back on again
if we need this stuff unpicked because it is diabolically
complex but also incredibly important.
S2 (13:03):
Thanks, Jackie. Thanks, David.
S6 (13:04):
Cheers, Nick.
S1 (13:11):
So, David, I just want to segue now to do
a sort of general vibe check with you, because a
lot of the polling seems to be suggesting that Albanese
and Labor are gaining traction with voters, and that Dutton
and the coalition are losing traction. Dutton obviously had a
pretty poor first week of the campaign, but what is
your general vibe about who's going well and who's not,
or who's winning, if we can say that.
S3 (13:33):
I found it really interesting, uh, this week, uh, to
see the polling showing labor doing better. And it's one
of those things where you get a vibe in an
election campaign, but then you see data which tends to
confirm the vibe. And of course, we're all aware of
this really. It's the fact that the government started the
(13:56):
campaign in a strong way. We've seen Anthony Albanese being
very clear, very on message, no stuff ups in the
way that we saw in the 2022 campaign. And in fact,
it's been really interesting that there have been so many
mixed messages and awkward moments on the coalition side of
the campaign. And of course, the big standout is that
(14:17):
Peter Dutton had to dump his approach to working from
home and admit that they made a mistake and then
do this incredibly big backflip circling in the air in
full view. You know, they they didn't try to hide
the backflip. They had to make everybody aware of this backflip.
Now the polling came out before that. But of course
(14:38):
there'll be more polling. And we'll be talking about this
next week as well because it'll be such a running
thing in this campaign. But we are seeing this. We
are seeing a switch back to labor among key demographics
among men, among people aged from 35 to 54 in particular.
And I found it very interesting to see that young
(14:59):
men in that 18 to 34 age group are also
switching back to labor. But of course, we had labor
in a very sorry state at the beginning of this year.
So in a sense, there's a bit of a correction
going where as the election gets close, as people think
more clearly about what they really want to do, where
they want to cast their vote, they move a bit
(15:19):
back to the government.
S1 (15:21):
I mean, politicians always tell us, of course, that they
don't listen to the polls. And it's not, you know,
the only poll that counts is the poll on Election day.
But how important is that ineffable sort of sense of
momentum to a campaign when you're sitting inside the campaign
and the polls are confirming what everybody really is saying
in the media that you're not going so well?
S3 (15:42):
Yeah, I think journalists often use that word momentum, and
that's because it's a real thing. And so we use
that word to describe a reality in campaigns. But just
to sort of move away from getting stuck on one word,
it's really about the sense that the government's working in
a very coherent way at the moment, with Anthony Albanese
(16:04):
and the ministers around him, all on a fairly disciplined
message and all after putting a whole bunch of things
on the agenda, the Medicare spending, the urgent care clinics, um,
policy after policy, then the tax cuts in the budget.
Clear messages and really no stuff ups, some occasional moments
(16:25):
in the daily campaign where, you know, things come out
awkwardly on the coalition side. Um, I think that they've
been slower with their policy response, and I think that
they're now being caught out for not having put some
of their policy ideas on the table earlier, like we're
talking about their gas plan and we've got questions about
(16:47):
how it works. Well, why wasn't it on the table
two months ago with modelling with some more concrete, um,
examples of what they were going to do so that
everybody could evaluate it and they had more time to
sell it. I actually asked this question of Angus Taylor
when he spoke at the National Press Club. I said,
John Howard always used to say, you cannot fatten the
(17:07):
pig on market day. And I think that is what
the coalition has been doing in this campaign, coming out
a bit too late with their policies when, let's face it,
they've got about a week to go. Well, they've got
a week less than a week to go to Easter.
And then on the Tuesday after Easter, early voting begins.
(17:28):
They're running out of time to to get their message
to voters.
S1 (17:32):
Yeah. And to settle it into people's minds, particularly when
you're talking about gas, which which, as we've just discussed,
is quite a complicated area. Casting forward next week is
very make or break for a number of reasons. Can
you tell us why? David.
S3 (17:44):
Well, we've got a leaders debate for a start. And
that's Wednesday night at the ABC studio in Parramatta. So
it's got a Western Sydney kind of theme. But you know,
it's important for voters around the country because I'm not
seeing signs that there's going to be any other leaders debate.
We've got Easter, we've got Anzac Day weekend. There won't
be other opportunities for a big debate like this. So
(18:05):
that ABC debate becomes really important.
S1 (18:07):
And is it safe to say that more people will
watch that, given it's on the broadcast, public broadcast of
free to air, as opposed to the last debate this week,
which was Sky and sort of locked down, unless you're
a subscriber.
S3 (18:18):
I thought the Sky news leaders debate the other night was, uh,
was not going to budge a voter one way.
S1 (18:27):
Or the other. Yeah, that was my.
S3 (18:28):
I called it a draw. You know, I know there
are different views about who won. And the studio audience
said that the Prime Minister won. Fair enough. But I
think it was generally a draw. No knockout blows. But also,
let's face it, not that many viewers, really, not that
many viewers. So it would not have sunk in to
many voters. The most important outcome of that debate was
(18:48):
the headline across the media the next day about the
fact that Albanese won it because the studio audience said
that he won it. That was more important to the
campaign than anything that actually said on the night.
S1 (19:01):
Yeah. So next week we've got the ABC debate, I
think on Wednesday night, which we can assume more people
will watch than than did the last one. Well, we've
got Easter when a lot of people will switch off.
And also early voting starts. Right.
S3 (19:12):
Yeah. And I think that adds an intensity to the
campaign next week. When you think about the fact that
they've all got to have their plans on the table.
I mean, the idea of releasing a policy, say, in
the last week of an election campaign, I think that's
a highly risky thing to do. We saw Scott Morrison
do it in 2022 because he came out with the
(19:34):
superannuation for housing.
S1 (19:37):
I forgot about.
S3 (19:37):
That. In his campaign launch, one week before polling day
and early voting was already underway. And I don't think
that that, uh, well, I clearly didn't save him, and
it was controversial. I don't expect to see last minute
big policy manifestos during those two weeks of early voting.
You've got to have your message out by the time
(19:59):
people start their early voting. And I've written in the past,
despite all the complaints from political insiders about early voting,
Australians like it. They want to keep it. They'd have
two weeks of early voting and they'd have three if
they really had their say. So that's the way the
electorate wants to cast their votes, and the political leaders
have got to work with that.
S1 (20:19):
Well, some of us are very organised and very busy
and we need to go early and some of us
like the to go to the local primary school and
get a sausage on the day.
S3 (20:26):
Yeah. That's right. I mean, I tend to vote early
just to get it out of the way because I'm
busy on on Election day. But I do enjoy the, uh,
the color and movement of the, uh, the local school.
S1 (20:36):
Yes, it's about the spectacle. And also, um, you know, buying, um,
sausages from impoverished local schools. Um, we, um, cannot wait
to see you again next week. Thank you. That was
an interesting chat, as ever. And, um, we will see
you again soon. David.
S6 (20:51):
Cheers, Jackie.
S1 (20:54):
Today's episode was produced by Julia Katzel with technical assistance
from Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tami Mills, and
Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to
our episodes as soon as they drop, follow Inside Politics
on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen to your podcasts.
To stay up to date with all the election coverage
(21:14):
and exclusives, visit The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald websites.
To support our journalism, subscribe to us via Visiting The
Age or smh.com.au. Subscribe. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.
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