April 23, 2025 • 16 mins
Six days ago, American president Donald Trump signalled, with frustration, that he was prepared to walk away from trying to broker a peace deal with Russia over Ukraine, and leave the country to its fate.
And then, yesterday, we got the news. Russian president Vladimir Putin had a new offer.
Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher, on where this leaves Ukraine. And what the latest negotiations mean for the rest of us.
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S1 (00:01):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,
April 24th. Six days ago. American President Donald Trump signaled
with frustration that he was prepared to walk away from
trying to broker a peace deal with Russia over Ukraine
(00:23):
and leave the country to its fate. And then yesterday,
we got the news. Russian President Vladimir Putin had a
new offer today. International and political editor Peter Hartcher, on
where this leaves Ukraine and what the latest negotiations mean
for the rest of us. So, Peter, why did you
(00:44):
write about Ukraine this week? Like why now?
S2 (00:46):
Why Ukraine? Well, for two years, we heard Donald Trump
saying at every opportunity that he was going to end
the war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on his first
day in office when he got to the job. Fair enough.
He said it would take a bit longer. Well, that's
only realistic. He said give us 100 days. Well, we're
going to hit 100 days very soon. And last week
(01:07):
on Friday, US time, he said he gave the first
clear indication that he was preparing to just walk away
from the problem because it's too hard. He said if
either of these two parties is being very difficult, we're
just going to say you're foolish, you're fools, you're horrible
people and give it a pass. So that was the
(01:28):
first time he'd actually indicated that he could be giving up.
And we have evidence since then that that is, in fact,
what's happening.
S1 (01:36):
Okay. So I want to get into that evidence in
just a bit. But first, can you just tell me
who is actually winning the war at this point? I mean,
it may seem to be a fairly simple question, but
for so long it seemed like Ukraine was defying the odds.
It was really holding back Russia. It was doing pretty well.
But that's not actually the case, is it?
S2 (01:52):
Well, it's turned into a very slow moving Russian An
encroachment onto Ukrainian territory, but it's very slow moving. It's
really a war of attrition where the two sides just
throw as many men, sometimes women, but almost exclusively men,
into the battle and as many munitions as they can
(02:16):
get their hands on at each other and, and see
what the net effect is. And the net effect has
been that Russia still occupies a little over 20% of
Ukrainian territory. Russia still is advancing increasingly in eastern areas
of Ukraine. The small enclave that the Ukrainians took from
(02:38):
Russia is almost all back in Russian hands, but some
of it still remains with Ukraine. So it's a very
slow moving war of attrition now, with no decisive break. Obvious.
S1 (02:50):
Okay, so where are we at then, with a cease fire?
Because we know that Ukraine agreed to one six weeks ago,
as demanded by Donald Trump. We all saw that. So
what's actually happened since then?
S2 (02:59):
Well, what's happened since then is that Putin, Vladimir Putin,
Russian president, has refused to agree. He says, I agree
in principle. And then he lists a bunch of conditions
which are utterly unacceptable to Ukraine. And that's where it
remains now, after Trump said on Friday that he was
prepared to walk away from the whole thing, Vladimir Putin
(03:21):
the very next day suddenly announces a 30 hour ceasefire,
unilaterally announced so he wouldn't agree to a 30 day ceasefire.
But suddenly he's interested in declaring a 30 hour ceasefire, which,
of course, we now know he didn't observe for even
I think it was within 15 minutes, the first Russian
(03:43):
acts of violence were perpetrated. And according to Volodymyr Zelensky,
the Ukrainian president, the Russians broke their own declared ceasefire
on more than 2000 occasions in just 30 hours, so
there was never a cease fire. It was obviously just
a ruse to try to demonstrate to Donald Trump to show, oh, look, no,
don't give up, Donald. I'm being reasonable. Don't blame me
(04:04):
if you're about to walk out.
S1 (04:06):
And then now we get to the news that has
just been reported hours before we're recording this on Wednesday morning.
We've seen reports about Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest offer
to Ukraine. So tell us about this, Peter.
S2 (04:17):
Well, the latest news is that Putin, very grand and
generous gesture, has suggested that maybe he could just stop
the invasion where it is and continue to occupy all
the land that he's illegally seized from Ukraine, and just
leave it at that now. It's just ridiculous. Of course,
it's been a no starter with Ukraine from the very
(04:40):
beginning to surrender any of the territories, much less all
of them that Putin has claimed. So once again, it's
a non offer from Putin that he's portraying as an offer, However,
we also know that at the same time, Putin is
making non-war related offers to Donald Trump to the US.
S1 (05:03):
This is the really big news I feel like at
the moment. So tell us about this.
S2 (05:06):
So we know from Donald Trump's own special envoy, Steve Witkoff,
that the Russians have put what he calls a compelling
series of investment opportunities for the Americans in Russia on
the table. And that we know also from reports in
the Moscow Times that that compelling list of investment opportunities
(05:28):
for the Americans that Trump is now presenting them with
includes a $15 billion mining project in Siberia. It includes
a rare earths and aluminium joint venture between the US
and Russia. It includes returning access to US oil companies
(05:49):
to drill for oil in Russia, and perhaps the one
that has the most Trumpian stamp on it. He's offering
Trump the prospect of building a Trump Tower in Moscow.
According to reporting in the Moscow Times. And as Steve
Witkoff says, how compelling is that? Now, none of that
(06:10):
has obviously has anything to do with the war. It
has everything to do with ingratiating himself, Putin himself with
Trump making him an even more indispensable partner and continuing
to wage the war on Russia's terms with Trump support.
S1 (06:29):
And I think we saw Trump post on social media
just on Sunday, something that sort of, I guess, further
just cemented how much his interest in Ukraine is financial. Right?
He posted that he hoped Ukraine and Russia would make
a deal this week. And then this is so Trumpian
start to do business with the United States of America,
which is thriving and make a fortune.
S2 (06:49):
Yes. Well, that's very nice for everybody, but let's look
at what Ukraine gets out of this deal. I mean,
the line that I used in my column, Samantha, was,
if you're being invaded by a murderous dictator, what worse
could possibly happen to you? And the answer is, if
you're Ukraine, that Donald Trump offers to broker a peace
(07:11):
deal for you because what's he done? What's been the
net effect for Ukraine to this point? Well, first, Trump
humiliated in public in a stage managed Oval Office event.
The president of Ukraine, he called him a dictator. He
called him the aggressor. He continues to repeat that Ukraine
started the war. Trump continues to spout Russian propaganda week
(07:36):
after week, month after month, year after year. So he's
Delegitimized Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian cause in the eyes of
the Republican Party, his MAGA followers, his administration, of course,
and many, no doubt who follow Trump in the Congress
and the Senate. Then to pressure him, Zelensky into a ceasefire,
(07:56):
suspended military intelligence and froze the promised aid that had
already been committed by the US to Ukraine. Then he
demands that Ukraine sign over a share of mineral rights
to Ukrainian rare earths and critical minerals. Apparently we're told
that that deal has now been agreed, but we don't
know the detail of what's in it. So he shakes
down Ukraine to get access to its minerals, suspends its aid,
(08:20):
humiliates its president, delegitimizes its cause. And then, at the
end of the day, walks away without exerting any pressure
on Putin to make any concessions whatsoever. That's the net effect.
It's an absolute disaster. And from Putin, it's really just
a giant insult to Donald Trump that he wraps it
(08:41):
up with the wrapping paper and a few baubles of
these dangling the prospect of a Trump Tower in Moscow
so that Trump sees the baubles and not the insult
behind them.
S1 (08:50):
And tell us what we've seen. In addition to all this,
with regards to the United States floating recognition of Russia's
annexation of Crimea as part of these peace plans, because
that's obviously hugely controversial and insulting to Ukraine.
S2 (09:04):
Well, absolutely. It would again be a very damaging act
against Ukrainian interests if Trump were to do this. We
have a CNN report to that effect that the US
is preparing to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, but we
haven't had that confirmed.
S1 (09:18):
Okay. And we are talking about the part that Russia
annexed in 2014. So this has been a controversial issue
for more than a decade now. So this would be
massive if all of a sudden the United States, assuming
these reports are true, were to recognize Russia's.
S2 (09:33):
And Ukraine has never relinquished sovereignty over Ukraine. It was
taken in an act of aggression. So if it's right
that Trump is about to recognize Russian sovereignty. Again, it
flies in the face of international law. It is a
huge concession to Putin and more harm to Ukraine.
S1 (09:51):
And so what have we heard from Vladimir Zelensky about
all of this, about the latest efforts, I guess, at
ceasefire or peace.
S2 (09:58):
He said that there have been lots of ideas, lots
of discussions, no formal proposals, and he'll wait to see
what the proposals are. He's reiterated Ukraine's constant position that
none of the territorial gains that Russia made are in
any way acceptable, and that's a red line for him.
S1 (10:16):
We'll be right back. And so now we know that
Ukrainian officials are due to meet European and American officials
in London on Wednesday, when we're recording to discuss the
latest proposals. So, I mean, what are the chances that
Europe can exert any real pressure on the United States
to back Ukraine for a better deal with Putin?
S2 (10:38):
I'd say pretty close to zero. We've seen most of
the European leaders accept that. We've seen Friedrich Merz, the
German incoming German chancellor, say that the old relationship is
is finished, that the European Union needs to develop its
own defence capacity, that all the old fiscal constraints are
(11:01):
now gone, and that Europe needs to develop an independent capacity,
independent defence capacity independent of the US. And just over
a week ago, the Europeans voted another $20 billion package
of support for Ukraine. So the Europeans are staying the course,
but they've had no impact so far, trying to change
Trump's mind whatsoever. And the meeting that's underway is going
(11:26):
to be underway very shortly. That you've mentioned, including the Russians,
the Americans, the Europeans, the Ukrainians. A big tell there
is that both Marco Rubio, the Secretary of state of
the US, and also Steve Witkoff, the special envoy from
Donald Trump have both said they're not going to that meeting.
They've both pulled out, which is a clear signal that
there's not going to be any actual ceasefire or serious
(11:49):
resolution of this.
S1 (11:50):
You've spoken to an Australian former diplomat and expert in
Russia who has said that all signs are that Trump
is going to simply ditch Ukraine, leaving it to its fate.
What did he mean by that? Can you spell it
out for us? I guess, as to what things are
actually looking like now on the ground for Ukrainians and
what they'll be left with?
S2 (12:10):
Well, it's very much up to Ukraine and its allies now.
That's the non-US allies, because Trump has made clear that
there will be no new support, no new aid, military
or financial from the US. No surprise there. But it
means that the Ukrainians are going to have to continue
to try to wage war outmatched by this much larger power.
(12:36):
It puts the pressure on the Europeans. European allies. European
NATO members, but also others including Canada, Australia and others,
South Korea, Japan have all contributed to the Ukrainian cause. Well,
all of those supporters of Ukraine. Now, really, if we
if we believe that the inviolability of borders is important,
(12:56):
that international law is important, that defeating an illegal invasion
by a dictator is important. If we believe in those things,
then we really need to do more to support Ukraine,
including Australia. And just remember that several times now, the Russians,
Putin in particular, has signaled that once he manages to
(13:18):
subdue Ukraine, he will attack other countries in Eastern Europe.
He wants to fully restore the old Soviet Union, and
maybe more. So this is a really important front for everybody.
But we also need to remember that the other dictators,
the other predators that are on the move as well,
China is not surrendering any of its territorial ambitions, which
remain live. Its military buildup continues apace. So it's a
(13:43):
very dangerous world, and we need to be very vigilant
and active in a way we just haven't been so far.
S1 (13:50):
And are you seeing reports like, is there any suggestion
that countries including Australia, Japan and some of the others
that you mentioned, that they are going to be providing
more aid to Ukraine? And can they even realistically, I mean,
they just can't match what America provides, right? Like, are
we just staring down the barrel of an inevitability, which
is that Ukraine just loses this war in a horrible way?
S2 (14:10):
You're right that the American aid is irreplaceable. Um, but
what has happened in the intervening years that this invasion
is going on is that the Ukrainians have developed much
more autonomy in their own defense. Their technological and capability
and their warfighting capability has improved out of sight. They're
now the world's leading manufacturer of of intelligent drones, for example.
(14:37):
And also recall that while the Ukrainians are suffering, so
are the Russians. For months and months now, they are
sending injured men back into the front lines. They are
sending men on crutches back into the front lines. The
Russians have run out of vehicles. They're using donkeys to
(14:57):
carry food and munitions along the front lines. I mean,
this is like World War One stuff. The Russian economy
is suffering. The the manpower of Russia is under tremendous strain.
So the pressure is on both these countries, both belligerents.
So it's really an open question now of the willpower
(15:18):
of the Ukrainian people, the countries that support Ukraine and
the staying power of the Russians. So I wouldn't say
it's an inevitability in either direction. It's a running sore
for both countries and a continuing problem for the civilized world.
S1 (15:36):
Well, thank you so much, Peter, for your time.
S2 (15:39):
A pleasure, even if it's a grim subject. Samantha.
S1 (15:48):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself
and Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom
McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our
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(16:10):
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your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes.
I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,
April 24th. Six days ago. American President Donald Trump signaled
with frustration that he was prepared to walk away from
trying to broker a peace deal with Russia over Ukraine
(00:23):
and leave the country to its fate. And then yesterday,
we got the news. Russian President Vladimir Putin had a
new offer today. International and political editor Peter Hartcher, on
where this leaves Ukraine and what the latest negotiations mean
for the rest of us. So, Peter, why did you
(00:44):
write about Ukraine this week? Like why now?
S2 (00:46):
Why Ukraine? Well, for two years, we heard Donald Trump
saying at every opportunity that he was going to end
the war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on his first
day in office when he got to the job. Fair enough.
He said it would take a bit longer. Well, that's
only realistic. He said give us 100 days. Well, we're
going to hit 100 days very soon. And last week
(01:07):
on Friday, US time, he said he gave the first
clear indication that he was preparing to just walk away
from the problem because it's too hard. He said if
either of these two parties is being very difficult, we're
just going to say you're foolish, you're fools, you're horrible
people and give it a pass. So that was the
(01:28):
first time he'd actually indicated that he could be giving up.
And we have evidence since then that that is, in fact,
what's happening.
S1 (01:36):
Okay. So I want to get into that evidence in
just a bit. But first, can you just tell me
who is actually winning the war at this point? I mean,
it may seem to be a fairly simple question, but
for so long it seemed like Ukraine was defying the odds.
It was really holding back Russia. It was doing pretty well.
But that's not actually the case, is it?
S2 (01:52):
Well, it's turned into a very slow moving Russian An
encroachment onto Ukrainian territory, but it's very slow moving. It's
really a war of attrition where the two sides just
throw as many men, sometimes women, but almost exclusively men,
into the battle and as many munitions as they can
(02:16):
get their hands on at each other and, and see
what the net effect is. And the net effect has
been that Russia still occupies a little over 20% of
Ukrainian territory. Russia still is advancing increasingly in eastern areas
of Ukraine. The small enclave that the Ukrainians took from
(02:38):
Russia is almost all back in Russian hands, but some
of it still remains with Ukraine. So it's a very
slow moving war of attrition now, with no decisive break. Obvious.
S1 (02:50):
Okay, so where are we at then, with a cease fire?
Because we know that Ukraine agreed to one six weeks ago,
as demanded by Donald Trump. We all saw that. So
what's actually happened since then?
S2 (02:59):
Well, what's happened since then is that Putin, Vladimir Putin,
Russian president, has refused to agree. He says, I agree
in principle. And then he lists a bunch of conditions
which are utterly unacceptable to Ukraine. And that's where it
remains now, after Trump said on Friday that he was
prepared to walk away from the whole thing, Vladimir Putin
(03:21):
the very next day suddenly announces a 30 hour ceasefire,
unilaterally announced so he wouldn't agree to a 30 day ceasefire.
But suddenly he's interested in declaring a 30 hour ceasefire, which,
of course, we now know he didn't observe for even
I think it was within 15 minutes, the first Russian
(03:43):
acts of violence were perpetrated. And according to Volodymyr Zelensky,
the Ukrainian president, the Russians broke their own declared ceasefire
on more than 2000 occasions in just 30 hours, so
there was never a cease fire. It was obviously just
a ruse to try to demonstrate to Donald Trump to show, oh, look, no,
don't give up, Donald. I'm being reasonable. Don't blame me
(04:04):
if you're about to walk out.
S1 (04:06):
And then now we get to the news that has
just been reported hours before we're recording this on Wednesday morning.
We've seen reports about Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest offer
to Ukraine. So tell us about this, Peter.
S2 (04:17):
Well, the latest news is that Putin, very grand and
generous gesture, has suggested that maybe he could just stop
the invasion where it is and continue to occupy all
the land that he's illegally seized from Ukraine, and just
leave it at that now. It's just ridiculous. Of course,
it's been a no starter with Ukraine from the very
(04:40):
beginning to surrender any of the territories, much less all
of them that Putin has claimed. So once again, it's
a non offer from Putin that he's portraying as an offer, However,
we also know that at the same time, Putin is
making non-war related offers to Donald Trump to the US.
S1 (05:03):
This is the really big news I feel like at
the moment. So tell us about this.
S2 (05:06):
So we know from Donald Trump's own special envoy, Steve Witkoff,
that the Russians have put what he calls a compelling
series of investment opportunities for the Americans in Russia on
the table. And that we know also from reports in
the Moscow Times that that compelling list of investment opportunities
(05:28):
for the Americans that Trump is now presenting them with
includes a $15 billion mining project in Siberia. It includes
a rare earths and aluminium joint venture between the US
and Russia. It includes returning access to US oil companies
(05:49):
to drill for oil in Russia, and perhaps the one
that has the most Trumpian stamp on it. He's offering
Trump the prospect of building a Trump Tower in Moscow.
According to reporting in the Moscow Times. And as Steve
Witkoff says, how compelling is that? Now, none of that
(06:10):
has obviously has anything to do with the war. It
has everything to do with ingratiating himself, Putin himself with
Trump making him an even more indispensable partner and continuing
to wage the war on Russia's terms with Trump support.
S1 (06:29):
And I think we saw Trump post on social media
just on Sunday, something that sort of, I guess, further
just cemented how much his interest in Ukraine is financial. Right?
He posted that he hoped Ukraine and Russia would make
a deal this week. And then this is so Trumpian
start to do business with the United States of America,
which is thriving and make a fortune.
S2 (06:49):
Yes. Well, that's very nice for everybody, but let's look
at what Ukraine gets out of this deal. I mean,
the line that I used in my column, Samantha, was,
if you're being invaded by a murderous dictator, what worse
could possibly happen to you? And the answer is, if
you're Ukraine, that Donald Trump offers to broker a peace
(07:11):
deal for you because what's he done? What's been the
net effect for Ukraine to this point? Well, first, Trump
humiliated in public in a stage managed Oval Office event.
The president of Ukraine, he called him a dictator. He
called him the aggressor. He continues to repeat that Ukraine
started the war. Trump continues to spout Russian propaganda week
(07:36):
after week, month after month, year after year. So he's
Delegitimized Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian cause in the eyes of
the Republican Party, his MAGA followers, his administration, of course,
and many, no doubt who follow Trump in the Congress
and the Senate. Then to pressure him, Zelensky into a ceasefire,
(07:56):
suspended military intelligence and froze the promised aid that had
already been committed by the US to Ukraine. Then he
demands that Ukraine sign over a share of mineral rights
to Ukrainian rare earths and critical minerals. Apparently we're told
that that deal has now been agreed, but we don't
know the detail of what's in it. So he shakes
down Ukraine to get access to its minerals, suspends its aid,
(08:20):
humiliates its president, delegitimizes its cause. And then, at the
end of the day, walks away without exerting any pressure
on Putin to make any concessions whatsoever. That's the net effect.
It's an absolute disaster. And from Putin, it's really just
a giant insult to Donald Trump that he wraps it
(08:41):
up with the wrapping paper and a few baubles of
these dangling the prospect of a Trump Tower in Moscow
so that Trump sees the baubles and not the insult
behind them.
S1 (08:50):
And tell us what we've seen. In addition to all this,
with regards to the United States floating recognition of Russia's
annexation of Crimea as part of these peace plans, because
that's obviously hugely controversial and insulting to Ukraine.
S2 (09:04):
Well, absolutely. It would again be a very damaging act
against Ukrainian interests if Trump were to do this. We
have a CNN report to that effect that the US
is preparing to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, but we
haven't had that confirmed.
S1 (09:18):
Okay. And we are talking about the part that Russia
annexed in 2014. So this has been a controversial issue
for more than a decade now. So this would be
massive if all of a sudden the United States, assuming
these reports are true, were to recognize Russia's.
S2 (09:33):
And Ukraine has never relinquished sovereignty over Ukraine. It was
taken in an act of aggression. So if it's right
that Trump is about to recognize Russian sovereignty. Again, it
flies in the face of international law. It is a
huge concession to Putin and more harm to Ukraine.
S1 (09:51):
And so what have we heard from Vladimir Zelensky about
all of this, about the latest efforts, I guess, at
ceasefire or peace.
S2 (09:58):
He said that there have been lots of ideas, lots
of discussions, no formal proposals, and he'll wait to see
what the proposals are. He's reiterated Ukraine's constant position that
none of the territorial gains that Russia made are in
any way acceptable, and that's a red line for him.
S1 (10:16):
We'll be right back. And so now we know that
Ukrainian officials are due to meet European and American officials
in London on Wednesday, when we're recording to discuss the
latest proposals. So, I mean, what are the chances that
Europe can exert any real pressure on the United States
to back Ukraine for a better deal with Putin?
S2 (10:38):
I'd say pretty close to zero. We've seen most of
the European leaders accept that. We've seen Friedrich Merz, the
German incoming German chancellor, say that the old relationship is
is finished, that the European Union needs to develop its
own defence capacity, that all the old fiscal constraints are
(11:01):
now gone, and that Europe needs to develop an independent capacity,
independent defence capacity independent of the US. And just over
a week ago, the Europeans voted another $20 billion package
of support for Ukraine. So the Europeans are staying the course,
but they've had no impact so far, trying to change
Trump's mind whatsoever. And the meeting that's underway is going
(11:26):
to be underway very shortly. That you've mentioned, including the Russians,
the Americans, the Europeans, the Ukrainians. A big tell there
is that both Marco Rubio, the Secretary of state of
the US, and also Steve Witkoff, the special envoy from
Donald Trump have both said they're not going to that meeting.
They've both pulled out, which is a clear signal that
there's not going to be any actual ceasefire or serious
(11:49):
resolution of this.
S1 (11:50):
You've spoken to an Australian former diplomat and expert in
Russia who has said that all signs are that Trump
is going to simply ditch Ukraine, leaving it to its fate.
What did he mean by that? Can you spell it
out for us? I guess, as to what things are
actually looking like now on the ground for Ukrainians and
what they'll be left with?
S2 (12:10):
Well, it's very much up to Ukraine and its allies now.
That's the non-US allies, because Trump has made clear that
there will be no new support, no new aid, military
or financial from the US. No surprise there. But it
means that the Ukrainians are going to have to continue
to try to wage war outmatched by this much larger power.
(12:36):
It puts the pressure on the Europeans. European allies. European
NATO members, but also others including Canada, Australia and others,
South Korea, Japan have all contributed to the Ukrainian cause. Well,
all of those supporters of Ukraine. Now, really, if we
if we believe that the inviolability of borders is important,
(12:56):
that international law is important, that defeating an illegal invasion
by a dictator is important. If we believe in those things,
then we really need to do more to support Ukraine,
including Australia. And just remember that several times now, the Russians,
Putin in particular, has signaled that once he manages to
(13:18):
subdue Ukraine, he will attack other countries in Eastern Europe.
He wants to fully restore the old Soviet Union, and
maybe more. So this is a really important front for everybody.
But we also need to remember that the other dictators,
the other predators that are on the move as well,
China is not surrendering any of its territorial ambitions, which
remain live. Its military buildup continues apace. So it's a
(13:43):
very dangerous world, and we need to be very vigilant
and active in a way we just haven't been so far.
S1 (13:50):
And are you seeing reports like, is there any suggestion
that countries including Australia, Japan and some of the others
that you mentioned, that they are going to be providing
more aid to Ukraine? And can they even realistically, I mean,
they just can't match what America provides, right? Like, are
we just staring down the barrel of an inevitability, which
is that Ukraine just loses this war in a horrible way?
S2 (14:10):
You're right that the American aid is irreplaceable. Um, but
what has happened in the intervening years that this invasion
is going on is that the Ukrainians have developed much
more autonomy in their own defense. Their technological and capability
and their warfighting capability has improved out of sight. They're
now the world's leading manufacturer of of intelligent drones, for example.
(14:37):
And also recall that while the Ukrainians are suffering, so
are the Russians. For months and months now, they are
sending injured men back into the front lines. They are
sending men on crutches back into the front lines. The
Russians have run out of vehicles. They're using donkeys to
(14:57):
carry food and munitions along the front lines. I mean,
this is like World War One stuff. The Russian economy
is suffering. The the manpower of Russia is under tremendous strain.
So the pressure is on both these countries, both belligerents.
So it's really an open question now of the willpower
(15:18):
of the Ukrainian people, the countries that support Ukraine and
the staying power of the Russians. So I wouldn't say
it's an inevitability in either direction. It's a running sore
for both countries and a continuing problem for the civilized world.
S1 (15:36):
Well, thank you so much, Peter, for your time.
S2 (15:39):
A pleasure, even if it's a grim subject. Samantha.
S1 (15:48):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself
and Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom
McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our
episodes as soon as they drop, follow the Morning Edition
on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Our
newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so to support independent journalism,
(16:10):
visit The Age or smh.com.au. Subscribe and to stay up
to date, sign up to our Morning Edition newsletter to
receive a summary of the day's most important news in
your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes.
I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks for listening.
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