August 20, 2025 • 25 mins
Since Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine three and a half years ago, both sides have suffered catastrophic losses. More than one million Russian soldiers killed or injured. And on the Ukrainian side? Nearly 400,000.
Both sides seem to agree on nothing except for one thing: whoever has the support of American president Donald Trump has the best chance at stopping this war on their terms.
Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher, on whose side Trump is on now, after two crucial meetings held - separately - with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, over the last week.
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Episode Transcript
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S1 (00:00):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,
August 21st. Since Russia launched its full scale invasion of
Ukraine three and a half years ago, both sides have
suffered catastrophic losses. More than 1 million Russian soldiers killed
(00:24):
or injured. And on the Ukrainian side, nearly 400,000. Both
sides seem to agree on nothing except for one thing.
Whoever has the support of American President Donald Trump has
the best chance at stopping this war on their terms. Today,
international and political editor Peter Hartcher, on whose side Trump
(00:47):
is on now. After two crucial meetings held separately with
Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky over the last week. So, Peter,
so happy to have you on this morning because there's
been a lot of zigzagging on this issue. It's hard
(01:07):
to know what's going on.
S2 (01:09):
Yes, we try to follow the zigs and zags and
see where the trend line heads, and that's, I think,
the skill in in getting through this stuff.
S1 (01:15):
Oh, definitely. It's going to be a matter of reading
the tea leaves, I think, when it comes to parsing
Donald Trump's statement. So let's launch into it. Let's start
off with this meeting that Donald Trump hosted at the
white House on Monday, because it's been called a love in.
So who was there and what was discussed or settle upon?
If anything.
S2 (01:34):
The guest was Vladimir Putin's entree and that is Zelensky
from Ukraine. And the the rest of the supporting crew
were his main meal the Europeans. There were seven European
leaders of countries and European institutions. So it was the
entree and main meal for Putin's plan for conquest of Europe.
(01:57):
And the host was um, was Donald Trump, who, uh,
although he was presenting himself as a broker and a
peacemaker in this war between the Ukrainians and the Russians.
He was, in my view, the role he actually plays,
if you look at the trend line and look ahead,
(02:18):
is it's more like he's there to tenderize the next
courses for Vladimir Putin.
S1 (02:30):
Well, walk us through this because we know that the
European leaders called the talks on Monday productive. So what
was actually discussed? How were they tenderized.
S2 (02:41):
Well, they're two separate issues there. The the discussion was
about how to bring the Russians and the Ukrainians together
to talk and on what conditions any peace agreement might
be conducted. The Europeans. The Ukrainians initially tried to bring
Trump back to the concept of a ceasefire. And you'll
(03:03):
remember it was only days ago, before he met Putin,
that Trump was insisting on a ceasefire, saying that if
there were not a ceasefire, there would be, quote, severe
consequences for Russia.
S3 (03:17):
Russia face any consequences if Vladimir Putin does not agree
to stop the war. After your meeting on Friday.
S4 (03:25):
Yes they will. Yeah. What will the consequence. There will
be consequences. There will be. I don't have to say
there will be very severe consequences. Yes.
S2 (03:34):
But when Putin brushed that aside and said no, but
we can talk about a permanent peace deal instead, Trump
immediately dropped that demand. The Europeans tried to bring him
back to it, but he wasn't interested. Trump having following
Putin's lead as he almost always ultimately does, depending, you know,
regardless of the interim rhetoric getting there. He almost always
(03:57):
comes back to Putin's position, especially after he's spoken to him.
And Putin works his Rasputin like charm somehow on Trump.
And so they talked instead about conditions for a peace agreement.
The new element and that got all the media coverage
very excited. Was Trump saying he might be prepared to
(04:18):
get involved in some sort of peace security arrangement to
defend any new peace agreement. But we've since heard him
clarify that, that there will be no American troops involved.
That maybe some aerial support and coordination from Washington would
(04:39):
be about as far as it goes.
S5 (04:41):
Mr. president, what kind of assurances do you feel like
you have that going forward and, you know, past this
Trump administration, it won't be American boots on the ground
defending that border.
S6 (04:55):
Well, you have my assurance, and I'm president, and I'm.
I'm just trying to stop people from being killed, Charlie. Look,
they're losing.
S2 (05:03):
Samantha. Can I just point out that none of this
has anything to do with the preconditions that Vladimir Putin
has set, and that has been glibly overlooked in almost
all of the coverage? Putin has not budged one fraction
of a nanometer on what he calls his core demands
(05:24):
and the root causes of the war. There is absolutely
no indication that Putin will agree to any terms other
than the initial ones that he set out, and that
he keeps calling his. The root causes are and they are,
you know, Zelensky must leave, must be thrown out of office.
(05:45):
Russia takes all of the land and is entitled to
all of the claims that it's made that Ukraine must
de-nazify that Ukraine must be prevented forever from entering NATO
or the EU. And he's not budged on any of those.
And in fact, there was a lot of excitement. Oh,
he's going to meet Zelensky. Trump said Zelensky and Putin
(06:07):
will meet and then I can meet with the two
of them. We can have a trilateral. Well, Putin hasn't
even agreed to the first step there. So it's hard
to see how all of this noise and all of
this coverage and all of this excitement and movement has
achieved anything other than giving Putin more time to continue
waging war on Ukraine, which he did before the meeting
(06:29):
with Trump, during the meeting with Trump and after the
meeting with Trump.
S1 (06:34):
Okay, so I want to walk through many of the
points that you've just sort of touched on. But first,
can you just clarify for us so we know that Putin,
as you've just mentioned, his demands, he hasn't budged on
any of them throughout this entire three and a half years.
So tell us, what about Zelensky's position? Do we know
what his latest demands are?
S2 (06:53):
Well. Zelensky has agreed. Months ago, he agreed to Trump's
demand for a ceasefire. He said yes, Ukraine agrees to
an immediate ceasefire and Trump was trying to bring Putin
to that same position as recently as the day before.
He sat down with Putin in Alaska, where he repeated
(07:13):
to reporters on Air Force One, he said there will
be a ceasefire.
S4 (07:18):
I want to see a ceasefire rapidly. I don't know
if it's going to be today, but I'm not going
to be happy if it's not today. Everyone said it
can't be today, but I'm just saying I want the
killing to stop.
S2 (07:28):
So Zelensky agreed to that immediately. Putin has yet to
agree to it. Zelensky's other terms? Well, he's indicated that
he can be flexible, but he has insisted throughout that
he will not agree to the surrender of any Ukrainian territory.
S1 (07:47):
And let's get into this, because we know that a
crux of much of the discussion over the last week
or so has been that Vladimir Putin has asserted that
he wants the Donbas region, and and one of his demands,
I believe, is that he wants parts of the Donbas
region that aren't even currently occupied by Russian troops. So
can you walk us through why this region is such
(08:09):
a strategically important area, and why there's so much fighting
over it?
S2 (08:14):
Well, if he gets the Donbas, as he's insisting he
wants in a so-called land swap, which the Ukrainians have
shown no interest in. By the way, as I just said,
Zelenskyy is insisting he won't surrender any territory or recognize
any Russian advances on his territory.
S1 (08:34):
Of course, we also know that's even against the Ukrainian constitution.
I mean, he isn't even able to, according to the
Ukrainian constitution, agree to any giving away of any land, right?
S2 (08:44):
That's right. The Constitution won't allow him. The politics won't
allow him. After so many Ukrainians have died and sacrificed.
So it's a bit of a fantasy from Putin's side
of it, though it's entirely reasonable, because remember, Putin doesn't
even recognize that Ukraine is a legitimate state or that
Zelensky is a legitimate leader keeps calling him a Nazi.
(09:05):
This is despite the fact that in 1994, in the
Budapest Memorandum, Moscow signed an international peace treaty together with
the US, UK, France not only recognizing Ukraine but in
exchange for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear weapons, giving guarantees about
Ukrainian sovereignty. And now just violating them at will. The
(09:30):
critical point about the Donbas claim from Putin's side is
that if he can take all of the Donbas, it
puts him beyond the current Ukrainian fortifications and cities that
prevent Putin from making any further advances and then gives him,
if he's allowed, that which Zelensky, um, almost certainly would
(09:51):
never agree to. And as you say, couldn't would allow
Moscow's troops an easy run towards the rest of the
country advancing on Kyiv. So it's a pretty cheeky demand.
But all of this is just in the realm of
the hypothetical that everybody is overlooked in the the excitement,
(10:13):
the color and movement of the last week, all these
leaders moving and logistics, which is great television, it's great pictures.
But the underlying fundamental point here is that, um, the
Putin's demands haven't changed. As long as they don't change,
there can be no peace.
S1 (10:30):
So do you think that the main takeaway then, from
the last two very crucial meetings, just to remind listeners, Trump,
of course, met with Putin in Alaska on Friday. And
then subsequent to that, Trump met with Zelensky and a
number of European leaders on Monday. So is the upshot
that really this has just bought Putin more time to
continue the war.
S2 (10:51):
That is precisely the upshot. That is the only outcome
that we've actually seen. The only outcome that has resulted
from all of this, all of this positioning, all this noise,
all these tweets on Truth Social, all of the pictures
is that days go by, more days are going by now.
And Trump has said, oh, you know, next couple of
(11:13):
weeks Zelensky will meet Putin. And then maybe after that
I'll meet together with them. Each of these weeks ticks by.
Putin feels that the war is on his terms. He's
winning and it suits him just to play Trump along,
which he does magnificently.
S1 (11:32):
Well, I guess before we go further, let's get into this,
which is how badly does Ukraine need support right now?
Because we know that Ukraine had celebrated some significant military wins,
you know, prior to now, but it really is on
the back foot militarily, right, Compared to Russia?
S2 (11:48):
Well, it's it is on the defensive. It is trying
to hold Russia back. Russia does make advances, but I'd
point out that the Russian advances are incremental and at
great cost. It's costing them more than 100 casualties, dead
and wounded troops per kilometre. It's very slow. The Ukrainians
(12:11):
put up a dogged fight. And both sides, I'd also
point out their systems are under enormous pressure. The Ukrainians
are running short of men, and they've got, you know,
what would in an earlier century have been called press
gangs grabbing eligible aged men off the streets and stuffing
them in vans and dragging them off to fight. But
(12:33):
the Russians are doing are doing the same. Um, both
sides are running out of eligible fighting aged men. The
Russians at least have a better industrial system to provide munitions,
artillery shells and all of the munitions of war than
(12:54):
the Ukrainians do. And the Ukrainians are still dependent, heavily
dependent on the Europeans. And well, no longer directly from
the US. But the Europeans are now buying munitions from
the US to give to Ukraine.
S1 (13:13):
We'll be right back. Let's get into this issue of munitions,
because I know that, you know, you've walked us through
how all of the color and movement of these, they
were meant to be monumental meetings between Trump and Zelensky
and then Putin over the last couple of weeks, they
haven't amounted to much, if anything, except for, of course,
(13:35):
giving Putin more time to continue this war. But you
did write about, I think, a significant shift on Zelensky's
side in terms of how he's trying to get Trump
onside in his meeting at the white House on Monday.
So tell us about how Zelenskyy is bringing money to
the table or offering to, in a way, to sway
(13:55):
Trump to his side and whether it might be effective.
S2 (13:58):
Yeah. So both Putin and Zelensky are behind the scenes,
are offering economic advantages to the US, both sides keen
to keep or get US support. So we know on
Zelensky's part, we know from reporting that he circulated documents
(14:20):
to the Americans and other Europeans to make an offer
that he would buy, that Ukraine would be prepared to
buy up to 100 billion USD worth of arms and munitions,
and that these would be all US sourced systems, weapons
and munitions, so that that would give the US an
(14:41):
incentive to to lean towards his concerns in peace talks.
That's um, or pre peace talks. That's his angle with
the Europeans paying for them, which would be a pretty
sweet deal if you could do that. And that is
exactly what Europeans are doing since Trump no longer will
(15:01):
give them anything, either either cash or military supplies from
Putin's side, his angle is to do business and to
offer large investments to the US. Trump himself waxed lyrical
about after the Alaska meeting that he had with Putin.
He said, we've got some great Russian business representatives here.
(15:24):
They're keen to do business with the US. We are
the hottest country in the world right now. I can't
believe I'm saying these things. In quoting a US president,
he talks like a 14 year old.
S4 (15:35):
We also have some tremendous Russian, uh, business representatives here.
And I think, you know, everybody wants to deal with us.
We become the hottest country anywhere in the world at
a very short period of time, and we look forward
to that. We look forward to dealing. We're going to
try and get this over with.
S2 (15:52):
We we over with apparently referring to peace talks. Let's
get this peace thing, you know, out of the way
so we can get on to business. And Putin had
the head of the sovereign wealth fund of Russia in
the room meeting Trump, offering deals, offering investments. And it
does seem that Trump is quite keen and quite excited
(16:14):
to do these business deals with Russia. Now, this is
a big change, I just should point out here, Samantha,
because until now, for the last three years, Russia, Putin,
there have been it's been a pariah. Uh, Putin is
subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. No European,
(16:35):
no Western leader has met him. An American president hasn't
met him for four years. What Trump did was to
bring him in from the cold. A Trump invited him
to US soil. Alaska had this summit literally rolled out
the red carpet for him. I swooned over him. And then, uh,
is enthusing over these business deals with a country which
(16:58):
has been subject to pretty serious US sanctions for three
years now. So this is a transformation in Trump's position
in normalizing relations with what has been a pariah state,
the aggressor in this war. And I think this helps
explain why Putin looks so smug in a lot of
those pictures from his meetings with Trump. And Putin hasn't
(17:22):
had to change his demands in any way, shape or
form whatsoever except to come to a meeting, which is
a celebration of him and a reintroduction of him to
the civilized world. So you can see why this works
for Putin. It's hard to see how it works for
Zelensky or in fact, the European nations whom Putin is
(17:44):
threatening to invade once he's finished with Ukraine.
S1 (17:47):
I mean, I do want to discuss with you the
optics of both of these meetings that Trump had, because
even though it seems like the upshot is that there's
no progress towards peace or definitely no progress towards a ceasefire.
Like you say, when Putin met with Trump in Alaska
on Friday, Trump was deferential. I think it's fair to
say he even let Putin speak first, which I think
is very unusual when you're hosting a foreign leader, let
(18:10):
alone a foreign leader who is accused of war crimes
onto your soil. And then when Trump hosted Zelensky in
the white House, it was really jovial. It was almost backslapping.
There was compliments for Zelensky about how good he looked
in his suit.
S7 (18:26):
President Zelensky, you look fabulous in that suit.
S8 (18:29):
I said the same thing.
S7 (18:30):
Yeah. Look, you look good.
S8 (18:31):
I said the same thing. Yeah. Looks good. That's the
one that attacked you last time. See, now I remember.
S7 (18:36):
I apologize to you. You look wonderful.
S1 (18:39):
So the optics on both sides, you know, both meetings
looked great for for Zelenskyy or Putin. So is this
going to come down to who can offer Trump more money?
Like is this what it's going to come down to?
S2 (18:51):
Well, that seems to be exactly what's happened in the
Alaska summit. And we can judge that from Trump's comments
afterwards as well as Putin. Putin talked about how he
wants to get on and do business, and as well
as the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, he
made public comments to reporters in Alaska, too. And that
does seem to help us understand how Trump could go
(19:12):
from one day before meeting Putin, saying to reporters that
he will demand a cease fire from Putin and won't
be very happy if there isn't one, and threatening, quote,
severe consequences and even repositioning US submarines to carry an
implied threat to Russian territory and to Russia's security. And
then the next day saying there is no ceasefire, let's
(19:34):
not even talk about. In fact, at his post, Putin
at remarks. Trump didn't mention the word ceasefire or sanctions
or even the word Ukraine, but he he is keen
to get on with this business, with Russia, whatever deals
Putin has offered him. Obviously, Trump finds a prospective. We
(19:56):
know from earlier reporting by the Moscow Times that the
Russians have offered Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, the
prospect of a Trump hotel in Moscow, something Trump has
wanted since the 1980s. So there's a lot going on
on that score, and it might help us understand how
Trump's position shifted so dramatically and emphatically in between the
(20:18):
day before meeting Putin and then in the five minutes
after meeting Putin.
S1 (20:24):
And I do want to ask you about the input,
I guess, of European leaders in these negotiations, because Zelensky
very notably had a posse with him at the white
House on Monday, which of course, was in very stark
contrast to when he last appeared with Trump at the
white House in February, which we all remember was absolutely
humiliating for him. And he was browbeaten by Trump and J.D.
(20:46):
Vance at the time. So could this support of European
allies for Zelensky? Could this sway Trump at all, or
is it likely to come to nothing?
S2 (20:55):
Well, they were there to protect Zelensky, of course, from
getting another monstering at the hands of Trump that we
saw in February in the Oval Office. And they were
there partly to protect Ukraine because they want Ukraine to
survive this war intact and sovereign, because it's the buffer
between Russia and them. But they're also there because they
(21:16):
know they themselves are under threat. This is clear from
everything Putin has said over the years. Just every one
of his pronouncements talks about how he's going to continue
further into Europe. In fact, in a very mischievous act
of trolling that occurred in Alaska. The Russian Foreign Secretary Lavrov,
(21:37):
turned up wearing a sweatshirt with KCP on it, which
is the acronym for the Soviet Union. So he was
subtly or maybe not so subtly cheering on the Putin
project for the revival of all Russian territorial ownership and
conquests from the Soviet Union era. So that's an unsubtle
(21:59):
way of making the point. But the European leaders know
that they are under threat. Only a few weeks ago,
I interviewed Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland, who was
at the white House with the leaders this week. And
he sees the Russians absolutely as planning and maneuvering against
his border. And they are all living in fear of
(22:22):
Russian aggression. So they were there to protect Ukraine, but
also there to protect their own security futures. They hope.
S1 (22:29):
And so how is Zelensky placed now with regards to
support for his demands and the military strength that Ukraine
needs to keep fighting for what it wants, because we
know that Donald Trump flagged an impending meeting between Zelensky
and Putin in around two weeks time. And then after that,
like you mentioned before, a trilateral meeting between Trump and
Putin and Zelensky, but then we've also seen on Russian
social media accounts scoffing at an upcoming meeting between Zelensky
(22:54):
and Putin. So I guess where is Zelensky left after
all of this?
S2 (22:59):
Well, in the hours before we sat down to to chat, Samantha,
the Kremlin said. And Lavrov, the foreign minister, said, you know,
hold on here. He said any top level meeting requires
a great deal of careful preparation. We need to do
a lot of work. Um, he didn't rule out a meeting,
but he certainly hasn't committed to one. My best guess
(23:22):
here is that Putin will keep doing what he's been doing.
If he must hold a meeting with somebody at some point,
he might well do it. If it buys him more
time to continue waging war unchecked. And that's what's going
on here. But there's no sign that Trump has become
any more committed to the defense of Europe against Russia
(23:42):
because of this peculiar, mysterious, and yet real hold that
Vladimir Putin seems to have over Trump. Nobody seems to have,
you know, as you said at the very outset, there
are zigs and zags. But ultimately, Putin does as he
pleases and Trump supports him. That's ultimately what happens in
(24:04):
that relationship. And the Europeans, the Ukrainians are very much
a second tier interest. And when those two clash, the
Russian and the European, the Russian in Trump's court prevail.
S1 (24:16):
Well, thank you so much, Peter, for your time.
S2 (24:19):
Well, I hate to be the witch at the christening
here when there are so many excited people. But if
you look below the theatrics, I think the ultimate realities
here are unfortunately pretty stark.
S1 (24:39):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself
and Kai Wong, with technical assistance by Debbie Harrington. Our
executive producer is Tammy Mills. Our head of audio is
Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of The
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(24:59):
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inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm
(25:21):
Samantha Selinger. Morris. This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,
August 21st. Since Russia launched its full scale invasion of
Ukraine three and a half years ago, both sides have
suffered catastrophic losses. More than 1 million Russian soldiers killed
(00:24):
or injured. And on the Ukrainian side, nearly 400,000. Both
sides seem to agree on nothing except for one thing.
Whoever has the support of American President Donald Trump has
the best chance at stopping this war on their terms. Today,
international and political editor Peter Hartcher, on whose side Trump
(00:47):
is on now. After two crucial meetings held separately with
Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky over the last week. So, Peter,
so happy to have you on this morning because there's
been a lot of zigzagging on this issue. It's hard
(01:07):
to know what's going on.
S2 (01:09):
Yes, we try to follow the zigs and zags and
see where the trend line heads, and that's, I think,
the skill in in getting through this stuff.
S1 (01:15):
Oh, definitely. It's going to be a matter of reading
the tea leaves, I think, when it comes to parsing
Donald Trump's statement. So let's launch into it. Let's start
off with this meeting that Donald Trump hosted at the
white House on Monday, because it's been called a love in.
So who was there and what was discussed or settle upon?
If anything.
S2 (01:34):
The guest was Vladimir Putin's entree and that is Zelensky
from Ukraine. And the the rest of the supporting crew
were his main meal the Europeans. There were seven European
leaders of countries and European institutions. So it was the
entree and main meal for Putin's plan for conquest of Europe.
(01:57):
And the host was um, was Donald Trump, who, uh,
although he was presenting himself as a broker and a
peacemaker in this war between the Ukrainians and the Russians.
He was, in my view, the role he actually plays,
if you look at the trend line and look ahead,
(02:18):
is it's more like he's there to tenderize the next
courses for Vladimir Putin.
S1 (02:30):
Well, walk us through this because we know that the
European leaders called the talks on Monday productive. So what
was actually discussed? How were they tenderized.
S2 (02:41):
Well, they're two separate issues there. The the discussion was
about how to bring the Russians and the Ukrainians together
to talk and on what conditions any peace agreement might
be conducted. The Europeans. The Ukrainians initially tried to bring
Trump back to the concept of a ceasefire. And you'll
(03:03):
remember it was only days ago, before he met Putin,
that Trump was insisting on a ceasefire, saying that if
there were not a ceasefire, there would be, quote, severe
consequences for Russia.
S3 (03:17):
Russia face any consequences if Vladimir Putin does not agree
to stop the war. After your meeting on Friday.
S4 (03:25):
Yes they will. Yeah. What will the consequence. There will
be consequences. There will be. I don't have to say
there will be very severe consequences. Yes.
S2 (03:34):
But when Putin brushed that aside and said no, but
we can talk about a permanent peace deal instead, Trump
immediately dropped that demand. The Europeans tried to bring him
back to it, but he wasn't interested. Trump having following
Putin's lead as he almost always ultimately does, depending, you know,
regardless of the interim rhetoric getting there. He almost always
(03:57):
comes back to Putin's position, especially after he's spoken to him.
And Putin works his Rasputin like charm somehow on Trump.
And so they talked instead about conditions for a peace agreement.
The new element and that got all the media coverage
very excited. Was Trump saying he might be prepared to
(04:18):
get involved in some sort of peace security arrangement to
defend any new peace agreement. But we've since heard him
clarify that, that there will be no American troops involved.
That maybe some aerial support and coordination from Washington would
(04:39):
be about as far as it goes.
S5 (04:41):
Mr. president, what kind of assurances do you feel like
you have that going forward and, you know, past this
Trump administration, it won't be American boots on the ground
defending that border.
S6 (04:55):
Well, you have my assurance, and I'm president, and I'm.
I'm just trying to stop people from being killed, Charlie. Look,
they're losing.
S2 (05:03):
Samantha. Can I just point out that none of this
has anything to do with the preconditions that Vladimir Putin
has set, and that has been glibly overlooked in almost
all of the coverage? Putin has not budged one fraction
of a nanometer on what he calls his core demands
(05:24):
and the root causes of the war. There is absolutely
no indication that Putin will agree to any terms other
than the initial ones that he set out, and that
he keeps calling his. The root causes are and they are,
you know, Zelensky must leave, must be thrown out of office.
(05:45):
Russia takes all of the land and is entitled to
all of the claims that it's made that Ukraine must
de-nazify that Ukraine must be prevented forever from entering NATO
or the EU. And he's not budged on any of those.
And in fact, there was a lot of excitement. Oh,
he's going to meet Zelensky. Trump said Zelensky and Putin
(06:07):
will meet and then I can meet with the two
of them. We can have a trilateral. Well, Putin hasn't
even agreed to the first step there. So it's hard
to see how all of this noise and all of
this coverage and all of this excitement and movement has
achieved anything other than giving Putin more time to continue
waging war on Ukraine, which he did before the meeting
(06:29):
with Trump, during the meeting with Trump and after the
meeting with Trump.
S1 (06:34):
Okay, so I want to walk through many of the
points that you've just sort of touched on. But first,
can you just clarify for us so we know that Putin,
as you've just mentioned, his demands, he hasn't budged on
any of them throughout this entire three and a half years.
So tell us, what about Zelensky's position? Do we know
what his latest demands are?
S2 (06:53):
Well. Zelensky has agreed. Months ago, he agreed to Trump's
demand for a ceasefire. He said yes, Ukraine agrees to
an immediate ceasefire and Trump was trying to bring Putin
to that same position as recently as the day before.
He sat down with Putin in Alaska, where he repeated
(07:13):
to reporters on Air Force One, he said there will
be a ceasefire.
S4 (07:18):
I want to see a ceasefire rapidly. I don't know
if it's going to be today, but I'm not going
to be happy if it's not today. Everyone said it
can't be today, but I'm just saying I want the
killing to stop.
S2 (07:28):
So Zelensky agreed to that immediately. Putin has yet to
agree to it. Zelensky's other terms? Well, he's indicated that
he can be flexible, but he has insisted throughout that
he will not agree to the surrender of any Ukrainian territory.
S1 (07:47):
And let's get into this, because we know that a
crux of much of the discussion over the last week
or so has been that Vladimir Putin has asserted that
he wants the Donbas region, and and one of his demands,
I believe, is that he wants parts of the Donbas
region that aren't even currently occupied by Russian troops. So
can you walk us through why this region is such
(08:09):
a strategically important area, and why there's so much fighting
over it?
S2 (08:14):
Well, if he gets the Donbas, as he's insisting he
wants in a so-called land swap, which the Ukrainians have
shown no interest in. By the way, as I just said,
Zelenskyy is insisting he won't surrender any territory or recognize
any Russian advances on his territory.
S1 (08:34):
Of course, we also know that's even against the Ukrainian constitution.
I mean, he isn't even able to, according to the
Ukrainian constitution, agree to any giving away of any land, right?
S2 (08:44):
That's right. The Constitution won't allow him. The politics won't
allow him. After so many Ukrainians have died and sacrificed.
So it's a bit of a fantasy from Putin's side
of it, though it's entirely reasonable, because remember, Putin doesn't
even recognize that Ukraine is a legitimate state or that
Zelensky is a legitimate leader keeps calling him a Nazi.
(09:05):
This is despite the fact that in 1994, in the
Budapest Memorandum, Moscow signed an international peace treaty together with
the US, UK, France not only recognizing Ukraine but in
exchange for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear weapons, giving guarantees about
Ukrainian sovereignty. And now just violating them at will. The
(09:30):
critical point about the Donbas claim from Putin's side is
that if he can take all of the Donbas, it
puts him beyond the current Ukrainian fortifications and cities that
prevent Putin from making any further advances and then gives him,
if he's allowed, that which Zelensky, um, almost certainly would
(09:51):
never agree to. And as you say, couldn't would allow
Moscow's troops an easy run towards the rest of the
country advancing on Kyiv. So it's a pretty cheeky demand.
But all of this is just in the realm of
the hypothetical that everybody is overlooked in the the excitement,
(10:13):
the color and movement of the last week, all these
leaders moving and logistics, which is great television, it's great pictures.
But the underlying fundamental point here is that, um, the
Putin's demands haven't changed. As long as they don't change,
there can be no peace.
S1 (10:30):
So do you think that the main takeaway then, from
the last two very crucial meetings, just to remind listeners, Trump,
of course, met with Putin in Alaska on Friday. And
then subsequent to that, Trump met with Zelensky and a
number of European leaders on Monday. So is the upshot
that really this has just bought Putin more time to
continue the war.
S2 (10:51):
That is precisely the upshot. That is the only outcome
that we've actually seen. The only outcome that has resulted
from all of this, all of this positioning, all this noise,
all these tweets on Truth Social, all of the pictures
is that days go by, more days are going by now.
And Trump has said, oh, you know, next couple of
(11:13):
weeks Zelensky will meet Putin. And then maybe after that
I'll meet together with them. Each of these weeks ticks by.
Putin feels that the war is on his terms. He's
winning and it suits him just to play Trump along,
which he does magnificently.
S1 (11:32):
Well, I guess before we go further, let's get into this,
which is how badly does Ukraine need support right now?
Because we know that Ukraine had celebrated some significant military wins,
you know, prior to now, but it really is on
the back foot militarily, right, Compared to Russia?
S2 (11:48):
Well, it's it is on the defensive. It is trying
to hold Russia back. Russia does make advances, but I'd
point out that the Russian advances are incremental and at
great cost. It's costing them more than 100 casualties, dead
and wounded troops per kilometre. It's very slow. The Ukrainians
(12:11):
put up a dogged fight. And both sides, I'd also
point out their systems are under enormous pressure. The Ukrainians
are running short of men, and they've got, you know,
what would in an earlier century have been called press
gangs grabbing eligible aged men off the streets and stuffing
them in vans and dragging them off to fight. But
(12:33):
the Russians are doing are doing the same. Um, both
sides are running out of eligible fighting aged men. The
Russians at least have a better industrial system to provide munitions,
artillery shells and all of the munitions of war than
(12:54):
the Ukrainians do. And the Ukrainians are still dependent, heavily
dependent on the Europeans. And well, no longer directly from
the US. But the Europeans are now buying munitions from
the US to give to Ukraine.
S1 (13:13):
We'll be right back. Let's get into this issue of munitions,
because I know that, you know, you've walked us through
how all of the color and movement of these, they
were meant to be monumental meetings between Trump and Zelensky
and then Putin over the last couple of weeks, they
haven't amounted to much, if anything, except for, of course,
(13:35):
giving Putin more time to continue this war. But you
did write about, I think, a significant shift on Zelensky's
side in terms of how he's trying to get Trump
onside in his meeting at the white House on Monday.
So tell us about how Zelenskyy is bringing money to
the table or offering to, in a way, to sway
(13:55):
Trump to his side and whether it might be effective.
S2 (13:58):
Yeah. So both Putin and Zelensky are behind the scenes,
are offering economic advantages to the US, both sides keen
to keep or get US support. So we know on
Zelensky's part, we know from reporting that he circulated documents
(14:20):
to the Americans and other Europeans to make an offer
that he would buy, that Ukraine would be prepared to
buy up to 100 billion USD worth of arms and munitions,
and that these would be all US sourced systems, weapons
and munitions, so that that would give the US an
(14:41):
incentive to to lean towards his concerns in peace talks.
That's um, or pre peace talks. That's his angle with
the Europeans paying for them, which would be a pretty
sweet deal if you could do that. And that is
exactly what Europeans are doing since Trump no longer will
(15:01):
give them anything, either either cash or military supplies from
Putin's side, his angle is to do business and to
offer large investments to the US. Trump himself waxed lyrical
about after the Alaska meeting that he had with Putin.
He said, we've got some great Russian business representatives here.
(15:24):
They're keen to do business with the US. We are
the hottest country in the world right now. I can't
believe I'm saying these things. In quoting a US president,
he talks like a 14 year old.
S4 (15:35):
We also have some tremendous Russian, uh, business representatives here.
And I think, you know, everybody wants to deal with us.
We become the hottest country anywhere in the world at
a very short period of time, and we look forward
to that. We look forward to dealing. We're going to
try and get this over with.
S2 (15:52):
We we over with apparently referring to peace talks. Let's
get this peace thing, you know, out of the way
so we can get on to business. And Putin had
the head of the sovereign wealth fund of Russia in
the room meeting Trump, offering deals, offering investments. And it
does seem that Trump is quite keen and quite excited
(16:14):
to do these business deals with Russia. Now, this is
a big change, I just should point out here, Samantha,
because until now, for the last three years, Russia, Putin,
there have been it's been a pariah. Uh, Putin is
subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. No European,
(16:35):
no Western leader has met him. An American president hasn't
met him for four years. What Trump did was to
bring him in from the cold. A Trump invited him
to US soil. Alaska had this summit literally rolled out
the red carpet for him. I swooned over him. And then, uh,
is enthusing over these business deals with a country which
(16:58):
has been subject to pretty serious US sanctions for three
years now. So this is a transformation in Trump's position
in normalizing relations with what has been a pariah state,
the aggressor in this war. And I think this helps
explain why Putin looks so smug in a lot of
those pictures from his meetings with Trump. And Putin hasn't
(17:22):
had to change his demands in any way, shape or
form whatsoever except to come to a meeting, which is
a celebration of him and a reintroduction of him to
the civilized world. So you can see why this works
for Putin. It's hard to see how it works for
Zelensky or in fact, the European nations whom Putin is
(17:44):
threatening to invade once he's finished with Ukraine.
S1 (17:47):
I mean, I do want to discuss with you the
optics of both of these meetings that Trump had, because
even though it seems like the upshot is that there's
no progress towards peace or definitely no progress towards a ceasefire.
Like you say, when Putin met with Trump in Alaska
on Friday, Trump was deferential. I think it's fair to
say he even let Putin speak first, which I think
is very unusual when you're hosting a foreign leader, let
(18:10):
alone a foreign leader who is accused of war crimes
onto your soil. And then when Trump hosted Zelensky in
the white House, it was really jovial. It was almost backslapping.
There was compliments for Zelensky about how good he looked
in his suit.
S7 (18:26):
President Zelensky, you look fabulous in that suit.
S8 (18:29):
I said the same thing.
S7 (18:30):
Yeah. Look, you look good.
S8 (18:31):
I said the same thing. Yeah. Looks good. That's the
one that attacked you last time. See, now I remember.
S7 (18:36):
I apologize to you. You look wonderful.
S1 (18:39):
So the optics on both sides, you know, both meetings
looked great for for Zelenskyy or Putin. So is this
going to come down to who can offer Trump more money?
Like is this what it's going to come down to?
S2 (18:51):
Well, that seems to be exactly what's happened in the
Alaska summit. And we can judge that from Trump's comments
afterwards as well as Putin. Putin talked about how he
wants to get on and do business, and as well
as the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, he
made public comments to reporters in Alaska, too. And that
does seem to help us understand how Trump could go
(19:12):
from one day before meeting Putin, saying to reporters that
he will demand a cease fire from Putin and won't
be very happy if there isn't one, and threatening, quote,
severe consequences and even repositioning US submarines to carry an
implied threat to Russian territory and to Russia's security. And
then the next day saying there is no ceasefire, let's
(19:34):
not even talk about. In fact, at his post, Putin
at remarks. Trump didn't mention the word ceasefire or sanctions
or even the word Ukraine, but he he is keen
to get on with this business, with Russia, whatever deals
Putin has offered him. Obviously, Trump finds a prospective. We
(19:56):
know from earlier reporting by the Moscow Times that the
Russians have offered Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, the
prospect of a Trump hotel in Moscow, something Trump has
wanted since the 1980s. So there's a lot going on
on that score, and it might help us understand how
Trump's position shifted so dramatically and emphatically in between the
(20:18):
day before meeting Putin and then in the five minutes
after meeting Putin.
S1 (20:24):
And I do want to ask you about the input,
I guess, of European leaders in these negotiations, because Zelensky
very notably had a posse with him at the white
House on Monday, which of course, was in very stark
contrast to when he last appeared with Trump at the
white House in February, which we all remember was absolutely
humiliating for him. And he was browbeaten by Trump and J.D.
(20:46):
Vance at the time. So could this support of European
allies for Zelensky? Could this sway Trump at all, or
is it likely to come to nothing?
S2 (20:55):
Well, they were there to protect Zelensky, of course, from
getting another monstering at the hands of Trump that we
saw in February in the Oval Office. And they were
there partly to protect Ukraine because they want Ukraine to
survive this war intact and sovereign, because it's the buffer
between Russia and them. But they're also there because they
(21:16):
know they themselves are under threat. This is clear from
everything Putin has said over the years. Just every one
of his pronouncements talks about how he's going to continue
further into Europe. In fact, in a very mischievous act
of trolling that occurred in Alaska. The Russian Foreign Secretary Lavrov,
(21:37):
turned up wearing a sweatshirt with KCP on it, which
is the acronym for the Soviet Union. So he was
subtly or maybe not so subtly cheering on the Putin
project for the revival of all Russian territorial ownership and
conquests from the Soviet Union era. So that's an unsubtle
(21:59):
way of making the point. But the European leaders know
that they are under threat. Only a few weeks ago,
I interviewed Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland, who was
at the white House with the leaders this week. And
he sees the Russians absolutely as planning and maneuvering against
his border. And they are all living in fear of
(22:22):
Russian aggression. So they were there to protect Ukraine, but
also there to protect their own security futures. They hope.
S1 (22:29):
And so how is Zelensky placed now with regards to
support for his demands and the military strength that Ukraine
needs to keep fighting for what it wants, because we
know that Donald Trump flagged an impending meeting between Zelensky
and Putin in around two weeks time. And then after that,
like you mentioned before, a trilateral meeting between Trump and
Putin and Zelensky, but then we've also seen on Russian
social media accounts scoffing at an upcoming meeting between Zelensky
(22:54):
and Putin. So I guess where is Zelensky left after
all of this?
S2 (22:59):
Well, in the hours before we sat down to to chat, Samantha,
the Kremlin said. And Lavrov, the foreign minister, said, you know,
hold on here. He said any top level meeting requires
a great deal of careful preparation. We need to do
a lot of work. Um, he didn't rule out a meeting,
but he certainly hasn't committed to one. My best guess
(23:22):
here is that Putin will keep doing what he's been doing.
If he must hold a meeting with somebody at some point,
he might well do it. If it buys him more
time to continue waging war unchecked. And that's what's going
on here. But there's no sign that Trump has become
any more committed to the defense of Europe against Russia
(23:42):
because of this peculiar, mysterious, and yet real hold that
Vladimir Putin seems to have over Trump. Nobody seems to have,
you know, as you said at the very outset, there
are zigs and zags. But ultimately, Putin does as he
pleases and Trump supports him. That's ultimately what happens in
(24:04):
that relationship. And the Europeans, the Ukrainians are very much
a second tier interest. And when those two clash, the
Russian and the European, the Russian in Trump's court prevail.
S1 (24:16):
Well, thank you so much, Peter, for your time.
S2 (24:19):
Well, I hate to be the witch at the christening
here when there are so many excited people. But if
you look below the theatrics, I think the ultimate realities
here are unfortunately pretty stark.
S1 (24:39):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself
and Kai Wong, with technical assistance by Debbie Harrington. Our
executive producer is Tammy Mills. Our head of audio is
Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of The
Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy the
show and want more of our journalism, subscribe to our
(24:59):
newspapers today. It's the best way to support what we do.
Search The Age or Smh.com.au. Subscribe and sign up for
our Morning Edition newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of
the day's most important news, analysis and insights in your
inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm
(25:21):
Samantha Selinger. Morris. This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.
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