June 3, 2025 • 21 mins
When news broke, over the weekend, that Ukraine launched a devastating and unprecedented attack on Russian air force bases, it shocked analysts around the world.
The damage was huge. And it made a mockery of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s expectation, more than three years ago, that he would capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within days.
Today, Associate Professor Matthew Sussex, a fellow at the Australia National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, on what impact this attack will have on Russia’s ability to win this war. And what both countries gained, in Monday’s peace talks.
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S1 (00:02):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Cylinder Morris. It's Wednesday,
June 4th. When news broke over the weekend that Ukraine
launched a devastating and unprecedented attack on Russian Air Force bases.
(00:23):
It shocked analysts around the world. The damage was huge,
and it made a mockery of Russian President Vladimir Putin's
expectation more than three years ago that he would capture
the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within days. Today, Associate Professor Matthew Sussex,
a fellow at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence
(00:46):
Studies Centre, on what impact this attack will have on
Russia's ability to win this war and what both countries
gained in Monday's peace talks. So, Matthew, welcome to the
Morning Edition. I just wanted to start off, can you
just talk us through this attack by Ukrainian drones in
(01:09):
Russia on Sunday? What happened?
S2 (01:11):
Thanks for having me, Samantha. Look, uh, this has been
a project that's been looks to be about 18 months
in the making. That the Ukrainians have planned this for
a very, very long time. And what they've done is,
is managed to launch a coordinated attack against a number
of Russian strategic airfields using drones that were basically, uh,
(01:37):
housed in, in sort of mini containers inside trucks.
S3 (01:44):
Ukraine has pulled off its most significant attack on Russia's
defense forces, destroying a third of its strategic bomber aircraft
in drone strikes. The daring raid has been labelled as
the Kremlin's biggest military setback since the Second World War.
S2 (02:00):
And to do that simultaneously is is really quite a
significant outcome and not something that really we've seen before, um,
in contemporary warfare, uh, and something that also was extremely successful. Uh, the,
the reach of the Ukrainian forces now is, is something
that's going to have to affect, I think, Vladimir Putin's calculations, uh,
(02:24):
about where is safe for his strategic bombers because previously, uh,
Ukrainian forces really couldn't reach that far, which meant that
the Russians could, uh, could basically orbit over their own
territory and, and launch strikes on the Ukrainians with pretty
much impunity.
S1 (02:42):
And so, tell me, just how far into Russian territory
did these strikes manage to reach, and how much damage
did they do?
S2 (02:48):
So it looks as though the Ukrainians have gone as
far as Irkutsk, uh, which is in Russia's Far East,
basically Siberia. And this is a very, very long way
from the front line in Ukraine. In addition to to
other air bases that are kind of closer. Um, and
the amount of damage. Uh, look, it's early days still,
(03:12):
but the Ukrainians are reporting that they destroyed or damaged 41, uh,
Russian strategic bombers. Um, there's some satellite pictures that have
come out relatively recently that that seem to confirm at
least 14 to 20. Uh, and that's an enormous amount
of hurt that the Ukrainians have put on, uh, Russia's
(03:35):
capability to, to conduct basically long range aviation. But more
than that, uh, these are the bombers that Russia uses or,
you know, intends to use in the event of, uh,
you know, a global cataclysm to deliver nuclear weapons. Um,
and so it has strategic effects as well, not just
in terms of the war in Ukraine.
S1 (03:54):
Let's just talk a little bit about what a huge
achievement this was for Ukraine because for the entire duration
of the war, as I understand it, the Ukrainian army
really has been blocked from the United States and other
allied countries from accessing weapons that would allow it to
strike deep within Russia and that region that you mentioned.
That is more than 4000km from Ukraine, as I understand
that they've struck. So how did it actually manage to
(04:15):
pull this off? Do we know?
S2 (04:17):
Well, I mean, a masterpiece of, um, of subterfuge and
sabotage operations, basically, uh, where you've you've had the Ukrainians
managing to put together the drones in the first place, um,
with targeting packages and put them on board trucks and
get those trucks to, to sites that are near air bases.
And that basically means that that air defenses don't see
(04:40):
them coming. Um, and it means that that they hit
their targets very quickly. Um, and of course, you know,
this is something that the Ukrainians didn't tell the United
States about in advance, um, because Kiev fears and I
think probably rightly, that if it does pass on intelligence to.
To the United States, then then one way or another
(05:01):
that would find its way into the hands of the
Russians in fairly short order. And this is basically, uh,
evolution whereby, uh, Kiev is saying, well, if we can't
receive the help that we need, uh, to, uh, to
hit the Russians where they can hurt us, um, then
we're going to develop it ourselves.
S4 (05:21):
And just a really punchy.
S1 (05:23):
Question for you is whether Ukraine has rewritten the rules
of war with his attack. Because I know you and
I spoke briefly before recording. One columnist in the Washington
Post has declared just that. Do you agree?
S2 (05:35):
Yeah. This is Max boot, and, uh, he's he's a
fairly influential commentator, and I think to an extent he's right. Um,
maybe not a complete game changer because we knew the
ability to do that, uh, has been around for a while,
but this is the first time we've seen it used
en masse, um, and, uh, and used on the battlefield
of a of a real live conflict. Um, and so,
(05:58):
you know, what it does is, is it basically, I
think shows that a lot of defense planners think about
having these expensive, exquisite, you know, very high end platforms to, to,
to deliver, uh, you know, lethal results. Uh, but you
can achieve that with far less. You can achieve that
(06:18):
with drones that are worth maybe, you know, $3,000 each,
$4,000 apiece. Um, and you use 100 of those, and, uh,
and you basically cripple 3 to $7 billion, depending on
how how many were destroyed, 3 to $7 billion worth
of Russian strategic air power. Uh, and that's no small feat.
(06:39):
So this is something that I think will be studied, uh,
by militaries around the world for, for the foreseeable future.
S1 (06:46):
Well, certainly we do know that, uh, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram on Sunday of the attacks. These
are Ukrainian actions that will definitely be in history textbooks.
S2 (06:56):
Yeah that's right. And whereas I don't think they change
Vladimir Putin's calculus at all. You know, Putin I think
will still want to continue prosecuting the war. Um, and
he will inevitably, you know, seek to exact a blood
price for that, um, for the attack, which he sees as,
as something, uh, you know, uh, an act of terrorism
(07:16):
against the Russian state rather than just, you know, Ukraine,
which has been invaded, fighting back with all means possible.
It means that he's got far less assets to be
able to hurt Ukraine with, uh, then than he did
before the attack. So. So this is extremely significant.
S1 (07:32):
Well, this brings me to my next question, which is,
do we know what the Ukrainians were targeting specifically with
this attack? And also just how much of a setback
might this be for Russia in terms of prosecuting or
winning this war, if it has at all?
S2 (07:45):
Yeah. Well, the Ukrainians were targeting basically the the weak
points of long range Russia. Russian strategic bombers. And that's
the fuel cells which are in the wings. Uh, and
you can use a very small, relatively small explosive to
ignite that fuel and, and cause it to, to blow up.
That's on the micro level. On the sort of bigger level,
(08:08):
what the Ukrainians were trying to do is put, put
a dent in Russia's ability to launch long range cruise missiles,
which it's done, uh, repeatedly at civilian targets as well as,
you know, critical infrastructure, um, in, in Ukraine, um, and
with the potential to cause an enormous amount of damage. Um, and,
(08:32):
and given that the Ukrainians haven't been able really to
reach those air bases, you know, with, with the type
of kit that they've been provided by the United States,
by the European Union. Um, and, uh, you know, particularly
Germany saying that it wouldn't give its Taurus long range
missile to, to the Ukrainians Iranians that this is Ukraine saying, well,
we're going to seek an alternative that that at least
(08:54):
gives our our populations a little bit of respite, um, from, uh,
from these, uh, these Russian air attacks.
S1 (09:06):
We'll be right back. Now, I really want to ask
you about what I think has got to be interesting
timing of these attacks, because they were carried out just
hours before the latest round of peace talks were originally
expected to happen in Turkey on Monday. We're going to
get to that shortly. But how did Ukraine and Russia
(09:28):
respond once the news of the drone attacks actually broke?
S2 (09:32):
Yeah, well, the Ukrainians responded jubilantly, because of course, this
is a real shot in the arm for morale. Um,
and it comes at a time when I think the
global community has to some extent bought into the line
coming from both, both Moscow and Washington, D.C., that Ukraine
is very, very weak and Ukraine is losing. Uh, we
(09:53):
only have to think back to to Donald Trump's, uh,
claim in, uh, in the white House when Zelensky visited, uh,
that you don't hold any cards here. Uh, so this
was all about showing to the Ukrainian people, uh, but
also to the world at large that Ukraine does have cards. Uh,
and it has cards that that, you know, can inflict,
you know, a significant amount of damage on Russian forces. Now,
(10:16):
from the Kremlin's side, they have been relatively quiet about it.
So you've had to go to telegram, uh, and other
places where, where Russian military bloggers discuss, uh, things that
have happened. And the consensus is really that regardless of
how many of these long range bombers were destroyed or
badly damaged, it was a catastrophic day for for the
(10:40):
Russian Air Force. And another indication that perhaps it really
hasn't learned as quickly as it should have, uh, in
terms of responding to contemporary threats on the battlefield.
S1 (10:50):
I've got to wonder now about what sort of, I guess,
backlash there will be. You mentioned that Vladimir Putin might
be looking to exact some sort of blood price in response.
So do you think this is likely to provoke a
major escalation from Russia?
S2 (11:04):
Yeah. Well, typically what happens in these situations is that
Russia goes after both critical infrastructure and civilian targets to
make a big show of force, and that's based on
the logic that if you can, um, wreak overwhelming damage
on your enemy, um, then then that will degrade their morale,
that they might have had a morale boost from, from
(11:26):
military success. But you can take that away quickly by,
by doing some, some, you know, strategic bombing of things
like schools, hospitals, uh, and so forth. But, you know,
typically in this conflict that hasn't worked, that's, that's really
served only to to deepen the the desire of the
Ukrainians to fight on. And I rather suspect that's the
(11:46):
that's the effect that it'll have in this case.
S1 (11:49):
And so, Matthew, does this change anything in terms of
the stalemate that I believe Russia and Ukraine have been
in on the front lines for a while now?
S2 (11:57):
Yeah. I don't think it changes anything hugely. Uh, mainly
because what the Russians, what the Ukrainians have hit is,
is Russia's ability to, to target, um, critical infrastructure in cities, um,
the types of cruise missiles that it uses on those
bombers are for very big targets. And a lot of
the front line is, is very, very long. Um, and
(12:18):
it's a bit depopulated. The Ukrainians try and avoid gathering
together in groups because that makes them good targets. So,
you know, I think that that basically the front line
stays where it is for the moment. Um, but but
the ability of the Russians to reach out and really
hurt Ukrainian civilians is something that that has been damaged here.
S1 (12:37):
Now, Matthew, just before recording this on Tuesday morning, we
heard the news that the peace talks that we've been
waiting for between Russia and Ukraine, They finally took place,
but they have ended without a ceasefire deal. So can
you just tell us what have they actually agreed to,
like what's been achieved?
S2 (12:53):
Well, look, they've they've agreed to swap prisoners, those who
are badly injured, those who were sick and, uh, and,
you know, up to, I think about 12,000 in total. Um,
but that's really just sort of the absolute base level
entry point for, for negotiations. And the the reason for
that is that the Russians have effectively come to Istanbul
(13:16):
with a second string, uh, team of negotiators, a man
called Vladimir Medinsky, who's been used by Putin as the
point man for, for all these peace negotiations. Uh, but
he's only a presidential advisor. And so for the Ukrainians,
the the view is, well, you know, does this person
really have the ability to, to conduct negotiations on behalf
(13:39):
of the Russian state? Um, if we agree to anything,
will Moscow simply walk it back and mean that we
have to start again. When we actually talk to Lavrov,
the foreign minister, or Putin, anyone important. Um, but more
than that, the Russian position has not changed. It hasn't
changed since Russia invaded in 2022. And its view is
(14:00):
that Ukraine needs to get out of every territory that
Russia only partially controls and must completely disarm, must not
join NATO or any other alliance. There must be no reparations.
The West has to drop sanctions immediately and agree that
Ukraine will never be part of NATO. So it's not
really diplomacy. It's just saying, here is a timetable for
(14:22):
you to implement our demands. And this is what they've done. Again,
the Russians have been slow playing, um, ceasefire and peace
talks for, you know, ever since Trump took office. And
I think the calculation is, is a relatively, you know,
pragmatic and logical one on on behalf of the Kremlin. Uh,
on the one hand, uh, if you continue the conflict,
(14:43):
you continue to create damage and cause damage against the
Ukrainian armed forces. Up. The length of time means that
European countries might start losing interest. Up the length of
time also means that Donald Trump might start losing interest.
He said that he would walk away if if there
(15:05):
wasn't a deal. And obviously that's bad for Ukraine, worse
for Ukraine than it is for Russia.
S1 (15:09):
And how do you think this latest result, you know,
these really catastrophic drone attacks, how do you think they
might figure into Trump's calculations? You know, from here onwards?
S2 (15:18):
Yeah, I mean, I think that Trump's Trump doesn't like
being made to look obviously a fool. Um, and and
this kind of does, um, because it shows him up
in saying that Ukraine is weak and, uh, and unable
to strike back and that it had better come to
a peace deal very, very quickly. Uh, otherwise, you know, the,
the the results can be catastrophic. And this shows that
(15:40):
no know Ukraine can fight on, and it can do
so without telling the United States, and it can do
so without support from the United States. Um, so so
that kind of makes him look a bit daft. And
so I don't think he'll be happy about that. But
by the same token, I don't think he's particularly pleased
that Putin continues to slow play negotiations. And so basically
(16:02):
his options are to, um, increase sanctions on Russia. Uh,
although pretty much everything is sanctioned as well as to
to increase weapons, supplies and aid to Ukraine and basically
arm it to the teeth. And there are certainly members
of his administration who, uh, have absolutely no love for,
for Ukraine whatsoever. Um, and do not want to see it, uh,
(16:25):
you know, rearmed. But ultimately, I think this does push
Trump towards some kind of decision. Um, that's going to
have to come soon. He can't continue to say that, uh,
you know, Putin and Zelensky will will come to an
agreement and it's about two weeks away because he's been
saying that for months.
S1 (16:44):
Okay. Well, let's talk about what Ukraine wanted out of this,
because Ukraine did lay out its conditions for peace before
these latest talks. They were complete and unconditional ceasefire, release
of prisoners and return of stolen children. So do you
think this latest attack changes anything for Ukraine in terms
of it being able to achieve these objectives?
S2 (17:04):
Look, I think whatever it achieves in terms of peace
deals rest far more on what Vladimir Putin decides than
than anything else. Ultimately, the Ukrainians can come with any
peace deal that they can think up and put it
on the table. But, you know, so far Putin has
proven himself completely disinclined to negotiate. Where I think it
(17:24):
does have a bit of an impact is, um, it
will have that effect, I think, of reinforcing to the
leadership in Kiev that perhaps there's not much incentive for
Kiev to to seek a peace deal. Um, what it's
put on the table is fairly realistic that that, you know,
using the current lines of control as the basis for negotiation. Um, and, uh,
(17:49):
you know, uh, return of children and, uh, and unconditional
ceasefires and, you know, basically putting it back on Russia
because Moscow has a history of violating ceasefires. Um, but
it might reinforce that. Look, you know, we we are
really effective at this and, uh, that we can continue, um,
even if it means doing so without too much American assistance. But,
(18:11):
you know, our European partners will will help us with this,
with this, um, and we'll be able to, to use
these new, new types of drone attacks to, to, to
good effect in the future.
S1 (18:21):
I mean, it does make me wonder, do you think
this incredible, really unprecedented attack from Ukraine during this war
at least, do you think it foreshadows perhaps something unexpected
from them to come militarily? We both discussed Max boot's
opinion piece in the Washington Post. And, you know, he
made the point that some Russian military bloggers compared Sunday's
attack to the one on Pearl Harbor 84 years ago,
(18:43):
though that not being a perfect analogy. Do you think
that this telegraphs that Ukraine might have something else up
its sleeve that could devastate Russia in ways that it
doesn't anticipate?
S2 (18:53):
Uh, well, look, I mean, these things tend to be
fairly costly in terms of planning. They need very good
operational security. Um, and, and they tend to be deployed
by the Ukrainians kind of episodically when they need to. Um, so,
for instance, previously what we saw was the, the shock
incursion into Russian territory, um, with, you know, Ukrainian, uh,
(19:17):
servicemen taking up to 1000km², uh, of Russian territory as,
as basically a bargaining chip to say, okay, well, you
have some of our land now we have some of yours.
And that was done at a moment of weakness when, uh,
it looked as though the Russian counteroffensive was, was gaining steam. Uh,
and a lot of commentators said, well, why would you
do this? Why would you send your best troops to
(19:40):
to occupy part of Russia? So there's almost always, I think,
a bigger strategic calculation at play from Kiev. And that's
how it has to play this, because it is the
weaker player. Um, and so, you know, it's done that
in the past. It's previously launched raids, uh, across the
(20:00):
Russian border. It's previously used, uh, basically unmanned, uh, Cessna
planes to, to deliver drone attacks. It's hit Russian oil
and gas manufacturing facilities. And so all this is, is
with the bigger strategic purpose in mind, it might not
initially have much effect on the Russian war machine, but
(20:23):
it is, um, basically doing significant damage over time and
also reminding the world that Ukraine is, is particularly adept, um,
at standing up to to this kind of bullying by
by Russia.
S1 (20:39):
Wow. Well, thank you so much, Matthew, for your time.
S2 (20:42):
My pleasure. Samantha.
S1 (20:50):
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(21:11):
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your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes.
I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Cylinder Morris. It's Wednesday,
June 4th. When news broke over the weekend that Ukraine
launched a devastating and unprecedented attack on Russian Air Force bases.
(00:23):
It shocked analysts around the world. The damage was huge,
and it made a mockery of Russian President Vladimir Putin's
expectation more than three years ago that he would capture
the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within days. Today, Associate Professor Matthew Sussex,
a fellow at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence
(00:46):
Studies Centre, on what impact this attack will have on
Russia's ability to win this war and what both countries
gained in Monday's peace talks. So, Matthew, welcome to the
Morning Edition. I just wanted to start off, can you
just talk us through this attack by Ukrainian drones in
(01:09):
Russia on Sunday? What happened?
S2 (01:11):
Thanks for having me, Samantha. Look, uh, this has been
a project that's been looks to be about 18 months
in the making. That the Ukrainians have planned this for
a very, very long time. And what they've done is,
is managed to launch a coordinated attack against a number
of Russian strategic airfields using drones that were basically, uh,
(01:37):
housed in, in sort of mini containers inside trucks.
S3 (01:44):
Ukraine has pulled off its most significant attack on Russia's
defense forces, destroying a third of its strategic bomber aircraft
in drone strikes. The daring raid has been labelled as
the Kremlin's biggest military setback since the Second World War.
S2 (02:00):
And to do that simultaneously is is really quite a
significant outcome and not something that really we've seen before, um,
in contemporary warfare, uh, and something that also was extremely successful. Uh, the,
the reach of the Ukrainian forces now is, is something
that's going to have to affect, I think, Vladimir Putin's calculations, uh,
(02:24):
about where is safe for his strategic bombers because previously, uh,
Ukrainian forces really couldn't reach that far, which meant that
the Russians could, uh, could basically orbit over their own
territory and, and launch strikes on the Ukrainians with pretty
much impunity.
S1 (02:42):
And so, tell me, just how far into Russian territory
did these strikes manage to reach, and how much damage
did they do?
S2 (02:48):
So it looks as though the Ukrainians have gone as
far as Irkutsk, uh, which is in Russia's Far East,
basically Siberia. And this is a very, very long way
from the front line in Ukraine. In addition to to
other air bases that are kind of closer. Um, and
the amount of damage. Uh, look, it's early days still,
(03:12):
but the Ukrainians are reporting that they destroyed or damaged 41, uh,
Russian strategic bombers. Um, there's some satellite pictures that have
come out relatively recently that that seem to confirm at
least 14 to 20. Uh, and that's an enormous amount
of hurt that the Ukrainians have put on, uh, Russia's
(03:35):
capability to, to conduct basically long range aviation. But more
than that, uh, these are the bombers that Russia uses or,
you know, intends to use in the event of, uh,
you know, a global cataclysm to deliver nuclear weapons. Um,
and so it has strategic effects as well, not just
in terms of the war in Ukraine.
S1 (03:54):
Let's just talk a little bit about what a huge
achievement this was for Ukraine because for the entire duration
of the war, as I understand it, the Ukrainian army
really has been blocked from the United States and other
allied countries from accessing weapons that would allow it to
strike deep within Russia and that region that you mentioned.
That is more than 4000km from Ukraine, as I understand
that they've struck. So how did it actually manage to
(04:15):
pull this off? Do we know?
S2 (04:17):
Well, I mean, a masterpiece of, um, of subterfuge and
sabotage operations, basically, uh, where you've you've had the Ukrainians
managing to put together the drones in the first place, um,
with targeting packages and put them on board trucks and
get those trucks to, to sites that are near air bases.
And that basically means that that air defenses don't see
(04:40):
them coming. Um, and it means that that they hit
their targets very quickly. Um, and of course, you know,
this is something that the Ukrainians didn't tell the United
States about in advance, um, because Kiev fears and I
think probably rightly, that if it does pass on intelligence to.
To the United States, then then one way or another
(05:01):
that would find its way into the hands of the
Russians in fairly short order. And this is basically, uh,
evolution whereby, uh, Kiev is saying, well, if we can't
receive the help that we need, uh, to, uh, to
hit the Russians where they can hurt us, um, then
we're going to develop it ourselves.
S4 (05:21):
And just a really punchy.
S1 (05:23):
Question for you is whether Ukraine has rewritten the rules
of war with his attack. Because I know you and
I spoke briefly before recording. One columnist in the Washington
Post has declared just that. Do you agree?
S2 (05:35):
Yeah. This is Max boot, and, uh, he's he's a
fairly influential commentator, and I think to an extent he's right. Um,
maybe not a complete game changer because we knew the
ability to do that, uh, has been around for a while,
but this is the first time we've seen it used
en masse, um, and, uh, and used on the battlefield
of a of a real live conflict. Um, and so,
(05:58):
you know, what it does is, is it basically, I
think shows that a lot of defense planners think about
having these expensive, exquisite, you know, very high end platforms to, to,
to deliver, uh, you know, lethal results. Uh, but you
can achieve that with far less. You can achieve that
(06:18):
with drones that are worth maybe, you know, $3,000 each,
$4,000 apiece. Um, and you use 100 of those, and, uh,
and you basically cripple 3 to $7 billion, depending on
how how many were destroyed, 3 to $7 billion worth
of Russian strategic air power. Uh, and that's no small feat.
(06:39):
So this is something that I think will be studied, uh,
by militaries around the world for, for the foreseeable future.
S1 (06:46):
Well, certainly we do know that, uh, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram on Sunday of the attacks. These
are Ukrainian actions that will definitely be in history textbooks.
S2 (06:56):
Yeah that's right. And whereas I don't think they change
Vladimir Putin's calculus at all. You know, Putin I think
will still want to continue prosecuting the war. Um, and
he will inevitably, you know, seek to exact a blood
price for that, um, for the attack, which he sees as,
as something, uh, you know, uh, an act of terrorism
(07:16):
against the Russian state rather than just, you know, Ukraine,
which has been invaded, fighting back with all means possible.
It means that he's got far less assets to be
able to hurt Ukraine with, uh, then than he did
before the attack. So. So this is extremely significant.
S1 (07:32):
Well, this brings me to my next question, which is,
do we know what the Ukrainians were targeting specifically with
this attack? And also just how much of a setback
might this be for Russia in terms of prosecuting or
winning this war, if it has at all?
S2 (07:45):
Yeah. Well, the Ukrainians were targeting basically the the weak
points of long range Russia. Russian strategic bombers. And that's
the fuel cells which are in the wings. Uh, and
you can use a very small, relatively small explosive to
ignite that fuel and, and cause it to, to blow up.
That's on the micro level. On the sort of bigger level,
(08:08):
what the Ukrainians were trying to do is put, put
a dent in Russia's ability to launch long range cruise missiles,
which it's done, uh, repeatedly at civilian targets as well as,
you know, critical infrastructure, um, in, in Ukraine, um, and
with the potential to cause an enormous amount of damage. Um, and,
(08:32):
and given that the Ukrainians haven't been able really to
reach those air bases, you know, with, with the type
of kit that they've been provided by the United States,
by the European Union. Um, and, uh, you know, particularly
Germany saying that it wouldn't give its Taurus long range
missile to, to the Ukrainians Iranians that this is Ukraine saying, well,
we're going to seek an alternative that that at least
(08:54):
gives our our populations a little bit of respite, um, from, uh,
from these, uh, these Russian air attacks.
S1 (09:06):
We'll be right back. Now, I really want to ask
you about what I think has got to be interesting
timing of these attacks, because they were carried out just
hours before the latest round of peace talks were originally
expected to happen in Turkey on Monday. We're going to
get to that shortly. But how did Ukraine and Russia
(09:28):
respond once the news of the drone attacks actually broke?
S2 (09:32):
Yeah, well, the Ukrainians responded jubilantly, because of course, this
is a real shot in the arm for morale. Um,
and it comes at a time when I think the
global community has to some extent bought into the line
coming from both, both Moscow and Washington, D.C., that Ukraine
is very, very weak and Ukraine is losing. Uh, we
(09:53):
only have to think back to to Donald Trump's, uh,
claim in, uh, in the white House when Zelensky visited, uh,
that you don't hold any cards here. Uh, so this
was all about showing to the Ukrainian people, uh, but
also to the world at large that Ukraine does have cards. Uh,
and it has cards that that, you know, can inflict,
you know, a significant amount of damage on Russian forces. Now,
(10:16):
from the Kremlin's side, they have been relatively quiet about it.
So you've had to go to telegram, uh, and other
places where, where Russian military bloggers discuss, uh, things that
have happened. And the consensus is really that regardless of
how many of these long range bombers were destroyed or
badly damaged, it was a catastrophic day for for the
(10:40):
Russian Air Force. And another indication that perhaps it really
hasn't learned as quickly as it should have, uh, in
terms of responding to contemporary threats on the battlefield.
S1 (10:50):
I've got to wonder now about what sort of, I guess,
backlash there will be. You mentioned that Vladimir Putin might
be looking to exact some sort of blood price in response.
So do you think this is likely to provoke a
major escalation from Russia?
S2 (11:04):
Yeah. Well, typically what happens in these situations is that
Russia goes after both critical infrastructure and civilian targets to
make a big show of force, and that's based on
the logic that if you can, um, wreak overwhelming damage
on your enemy, um, then then that will degrade their morale,
that they might have had a morale boost from, from
(11:26):
military success. But you can take that away quickly by,
by doing some, some, you know, strategic bombing of things
like schools, hospitals, uh, and so forth. But, you know,
typically in this conflict that hasn't worked, that's, that's really
served only to to deepen the the desire of the
Ukrainians to fight on. And I rather suspect that's the
(11:46):
that's the effect that it'll have in this case.
S1 (11:49):
And so, Matthew, does this change anything in terms of
the stalemate that I believe Russia and Ukraine have been
in on the front lines for a while now?
S2 (11:57):
Yeah. I don't think it changes anything hugely. Uh, mainly
because what the Russians, what the Ukrainians have hit is,
is Russia's ability to, to target, um, critical infrastructure in cities, um,
the types of cruise missiles that it uses on those
bombers are for very big targets. And a lot of
the front line is, is very, very long. Um, and
(12:18):
it's a bit depopulated. The Ukrainians try and avoid gathering
together in groups because that makes them good targets. So,
you know, I think that that basically the front line
stays where it is for the moment. Um, but but
the ability of the Russians to reach out and really
hurt Ukrainian civilians is something that that has been damaged here.
S1 (12:37):
Now, Matthew, just before recording this on Tuesday morning, we
heard the news that the peace talks that we've been
waiting for between Russia and Ukraine, They finally took place,
but they have ended without a ceasefire deal. So can
you just tell us what have they actually agreed to,
like what's been achieved?
S2 (12:53):
Well, look, they've they've agreed to swap prisoners, those who
are badly injured, those who were sick and, uh, and,
you know, up to, I think about 12,000 in total. Um,
but that's really just sort of the absolute base level
entry point for, for negotiations. And the the reason for
that is that the Russians have effectively come to Istanbul
(13:16):
with a second string, uh, team of negotiators, a man
called Vladimir Medinsky, who's been used by Putin as the
point man for, for all these peace negotiations. Uh, but
he's only a presidential advisor. And so for the Ukrainians,
the the view is, well, you know, does this person
really have the ability to, to conduct negotiations on behalf
(13:39):
of the Russian state? Um, if we agree to anything,
will Moscow simply walk it back and mean that we
have to start again. When we actually talk to Lavrov,
the foreign minister, or Putin, anyone important. Um, but more
than that, the Russian position has not changed. It hasn't
changed since Russia invaded in 2022. And its view is
(14:00):
that Ukraine needs to get out of every territory that
Russia only partially controls and must completely disarm, must not
join NATO or any other alliance. There must be no reparations.
The West has to drop sanctions immediately and agree that
Ukraine will never be part of NATO. So it's not
really diplomacy. It's just saying, here is a timetable for
(14:22):
you to implement our demands. And this is what they've done. Again,
the Russians have been slow playing, um, ceasefire and peace
talks for, you know, ever since Trump took office. And
I think the calculation is, is a relatively, you know,
pragmatic and logical one on on behalf of the Kremlin. Uh,
on the one hand, uh, if you continue the conflict,
(14:43):
you continue to create damage and cause damage against the
Ukrainian armed forces. Up. The length of time means that
European countries might start losing interest. Up the length of
time also means that Donald Trump might start losing interest.
He said that he would walk away if if there
(15:05):
wasn't a deal. And obviously that's bad for Ukraine, worse
for Ukraine than it is for Russia.
S1 (15:09):
And how do you think this latest result, you know,
these really catastrophic drone attacks, how do you think they
might figure into Trump's calculations? You know, from here onwards?
S2 (15:18):
Yeah, I mean, I think that Trump's Trump doesn't like
being made to look obviously a fool. Um, and and
this kind of does, um, because it shows him up
in saying that Ukraine is weak and, uh, and unable
to strike back and that it had better come to
a peace deal very, very quickly. Uh, otherwise, you know, the,
the the results can be catastrophic. And this shows that
(15:40):
no know Ukraine can fight on, and it can do
so without telling the United States, and it can do
so without support from the United States. Um, so so
that kind of makes him look a bit daft. And
so I don't think he'll be happy about that. But
by the same token, I don't think he's particularly pleased
that Putin continues to slow play negotiations. And so basically
(16:02):
his options are to, um, increase sanctions on Russia. Uh,
although pretty much everything is sanctioned as well as to
to increase weapons, supplies and aid to Ukraine and basically
arm it to the teeth. And there are certainly members
of his administration who, uh, have absolutely no love for,
for Ukraine whatsoever. Um, and do not want to see it, uh,
(16:25):
you know, rearmed. But ultimately, I think this does push
Trump towards some kind of decision. Um, that's going to
have to come soon. He can't continue to say that, uh,
you know, Putin and Zelensky will will come to an
agreement and it's about two weeks away because he's been
saying that for months.
S1 (16:44):
Okay. Well, let's talk about what Ukraine wanted out of this,
because Ukraine did lay out its conditions for peace before
these latest talks. They were complete and unconditional ceasefire, release
of prisoners and return of stolen children. So do you
think this latest attack changes anything for Ukraine in terms
of it being able to achieve these objectives?
S2 (17:04):
Look, I think whatever it achieves in terms of peace
deals rest far more on what Vladimir Putin decides than
than anything else. Ultimately, the Ukrainians can come with any
peace deal that they can think up and put it
on the table. But, you know, so far Putin has
proven himself completely disinclined to negotiate. Where I think it
(17:24):
does have a bit of an impact is, um, it
will have that effect, I think, of reinforcing to the
leadership in Kiev that perhaps there's not much incentive for
Kiev to to seek a peace deal. Um, what it's
put on the table is fairly realistic that that, you know,
using the current lines of control as the basis for negotiation. Um, and, uh,
(17:49):
you know, uh, return of children and, uh, and unconditional
ceasefires and, you know, basically putting it back on Russia
because Moscow has a history of violating ceasefires. Um, but
it might reinforce that. Look, you know, we we are
really effective at this and, uh, that we can continue, um,
even if it means doing so without too much American assistance. But,
(18:11):
you know, our European partners will will help us with this,
with this, um, and we'll be able to, to use
these new, new types of drone attacks to, to, to
good effect in the future.
S1 (18:21):
I mean, it does make me wonder, do you think
this incredible, really unprecedented attack from Ukraine during this war
at least, do you think it foreshadows perhaps something unexpected
from them to come militarily? We both discussed Max boot's
opinion piece in the Washington Post. And, you know, he
made the point that some Russian military bloggers compared Sunday's
attack to the one on Pearl Harbor 84 years ago,
(18:43):
though that not being a perfect analogy. Do you think
that this telegraphs that Ukraine might have something else up
its sleeve that could devastate Russia in ways that it
doesn't anticipate?
S2 (18:53):
Uh, well, look, I mean, these things tend to be
fairly costly in terms of planning. They need very good
operational security. Um, and, and they tend to be deployed
by the Ukrainians kind of episodically when they need to. Um, so,
for instance, previously what we saw was the, the shock
incursion into Russian territory, um, with, you know, Ukrainian, uh,
(19:17):
servicemen taking up to 1000km², uh, of Russian territory as,
as basically a bargaining chip to say, okay, well, you
have some of our land now we have some of yours.
And that was done at a moment of weakness when, uh,
it looked as though the Russian counteroffensive was, was gaining steam. Uh,
and a lot of commentators said, well, why would you
do this? Why would you send your best troops to
(19:40):
to occupy part of Russia? So there's almost always, I think,
a bigger strategic calculation at play from Kiev. And that's
how it has to play this, because it is the
weaker player. Um, and so, you know, it's done that
in the past. It's previously launched raids, uh, across the
(20:00):
Russian border. It's previously used, uh, basically unmanned, uh, Cessna
planes to, to deliver drone attacks. It's hit Russian oil
and gas manufacturing facilities. And so all this is, is
with the bigger strategic purpose in mind, it might not
initially have much effect on the Russian war machine, but
(20:23):
it is, um, basically doing significant damage over time and
also reminding the world that Ukraine is, is particularly adept, um,
at standing up to to this kind of bullying by
by Russia.
S1 (20:39):
Wow. Well, thank you so much, Matthew, for your time.
S2 (20:42):
My pleasure. Samantha.
S1 (20:50):
Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself
and Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom
McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our
episodes as soon as they drop. Follow the Morning Edition
on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Our
newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so to support independent journalism,
(21:11):
visit The Age or smh.com.au. Subscribe and to stay up
to date, sign up to our Morning Edition newsletter to
receive a summary of the day's most important news in
your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes.
I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks for listening.
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