December 19, 2025 • 15 mins
In this edition of Ballin' or Fallin', the guys tell you who will be ballin' in the College Football Playoff games this weekend.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well mean, doctor Bearshane, you can't see my eyes unless
my head is bad.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Q T, sir show, I like.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Alright tonight Oklahoma Boomer sooner and the Alabama Crimson tide
not the thin red line that we talked about yesterday
during fire or Fizzle. So the last time that these
two teams played, Oklahoma won twenty three to twenty one.
Oklahoma got special teams plays, they got defensive plays Eli
(00:44):
Bowen's eighty seven yard pickstix, among other things to help
them get the victory.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
That was a muff punt.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
And they were outgained by Alabama four six to twelve.
But that was a different Alabama team because the last
two games, Ty Simpson's total QBR has been a fifty
five point one. But Alabama is eighth in defensive efficiency
and they are only fourteenth in the SEC and rushing,
so that's something that they're going to have to get going.
(01:10):
Oklahoma's defense, they're second nationally and success rate allowed, so
they are stingy bunch third and stuff rate third, and
sack rate fourth and three and out rate and fifth
in red zone touchdown rate allowed. So this is a stingy,
stingy bunch Oklahoma has reached the CFP though, despite an
offense that's ranked ninety fifth in yards per play and
eighty ninth in points per drive. And they are sixteenth
(01:33):
though in red zone touchdown rates, so when they do
get down there, they do get it into the end zone.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
What do I think about this game?
Speaker 1 (01:40):
And for you betters out there, Oklahoma is a one
and a half point favorite, I just think that it
is very hard to go into the home building of
these teams. This will be the first of a playoff
game played at Oklahoma Madhouse doesn't begin to describe what
Alabama's going to see the night. And even though they
are typically in anytime any place type of team that
(02:00):
was under Nick Saban, this is a different ball game here.
Give me Oklahoma sohners boom of soon to get the
victory and they will be balling. I can't help it.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
Every time I see the Curse of A I want
to pick them every single time.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Just how it is. Even if this year they haven't.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Allowed me to benefit from picking them every single time,
they still are good enough to get to the College
Football Playoff, even with maybe some shenanigans going on. If
you ask some people behind the scenes. Why is Alabama here? Look,
Oklahoma's defense is very good. Obviously, nobody trusts their offense.
The one thing I'm looking at is Ty Simpson. He's
not been very good here recently. There's no doubt about that.
(02:42):
The offensive line is good at pass protecting. So can
Ty Simpson actually be free in the pocket with that
very good Oklahoma defense, even if their pass rush isn't
ranked crazy high compared to some of the other teams
in all of college football. I think that's what I'm
looking at. I think Alabama's offense can do enough against
this Oklahoma defense and stick around with a lackluster Oklahoma offense.
(03:05):
It doesn't mean I think Alabama. I think I'm having
a hard time picking against Alabama here. I don't think
I'll have a hard time picking against him the rest
of the way. It's just my lack of belief in
the Sooners. Oh give me Alabama to win. Alabama's balling.
Speaker 5 (03:19):
Yeah, the Oklahoma defense is tremendous, and you're going up
against an offense that has really struggled down the stretch
of the season. I mean Ty Simpson, you know, we've
seen a guy that was at one time looked at
as potentially a Heisman candidate, was looked at as potentially
the first quarterback going off the board in the draft.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
He started to struggle.
Speaker 5 (03:38):
But John Mattier on the other side, nowhere near the
year anybody thought he was going to have either those
numbers offensively not much better. It's going to be an
ugly game. I think it's going to come down to
the end between these two. But I like Oklahoma to
be balling in this one, probably like I don't know,
seventeen fourteen, Like it's not gonna be one you're gonna
(03:59):
be telling your friends about.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
All right. We start off Saturday early.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
We get it cracking Miami in Texas A and m
Miami's offense is tenth and success rate twentieth in red
zone touchdown rate. They got the great Malaco Todi, one
of the best freshmen, arguably the best freshman in the country,
hasn't dropped a single ball all season in four thirty
one miss tackles. But this Miami offense not very explosive
this season. Only six point six percent of their snaps
(04:26):
game twenty plus yards, so they have that. But Miami's defense,
they are disruptive. They forced the highest blown block rate
in the country. I wonder what my blown block rate
was when I was at wake forward.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Can we look on that will be access.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Yeah, Miami has for twice as many turnovers as Texas
A and M.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
That run defense is pretty good. Texas A and M a.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Lot of penalties, and they have only their sixtieth and
third down conversion rate. Marcel Reid, their quarterback, has ten
interceptions as well. But this Texas A and M defense,
they get it done as well, a point six tackles
for lost per game. They've got the lowest third down
conversion rate in the country, and they also have the
highest sack rate in the country. But a lot of
(05:08):
people feel like that this Texas A and M team
has not been tested. Told you that the only team
they played inside of the top five of the SEC
was the Texas Longhorns, and they lost to them by
double digits. I'm not gonna make or I'm not going
to waste much time here acc all day, But not
only because of that, because I believe in the Miami
(05:29):
Hurricanes in this roster. I think they go on the
road and the Miami Hurricanes are balling. Despite any residents
that want to change the name as we talked about.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
Yes, I'm trying to think of what I have more
faith in Texas A and M's lack of strength of
schedule or Carson Beck's lack of performing in big time games.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Carson back, which one do I have? You know?
Speaker 5 (05:50):
Morse Reid also not great in big time games. You
know I was looking at that as well.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
It's interesting because Carson Beck this year has thrown four
Let's see, he's thrown for twenty five touchdown passes and
ten interception. You look at Marcel Reid, He's thrown for
twenty five touchdown passes and ten interceptions. Both guys have
very similar stats seventy seven to nine QBR For Marcel
Reid he can run more than Carson Beck camp when
(06:16):
in doubt go against Carson Beck.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
I'm gonna go with the Texas A and M. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (06:21):
This one's tough, man, because initially, when I saw the matchup,
I loved it for Miami because I think you look
at Texas A and M where were the significant wins
on their schedule?
Speaker 3 (06:32):
How tested was this team actually?
Speaker 5 (06:34):
But then you start factoring in that is probably the
biggest advantage of being at home of anybody in the first.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
Round of the college football Playoff.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
I get it, man, Austin Stadium is going to be
crazy as well, But they're playing James Madison. They could
play that game at James Madison and they would win.
Just a little preview of what's coming up. So I mean,
Kyle Field's going to be off the chain. I mean
It's gonna be incredibly louder for that matchup. I'm gonna
trust Carson Back because I'm stupid, because I don't trust
(07:06):
barso Read that much either. I think there will be
some turnovers in this game for both sides, But give
me Miami to be balling because of the veteran experience
of one Carson.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Back six and m is a three and a half
point favorite in this game, by the way.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
All right, so as we continue.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Now, we've got the two matchups left on ball and
a falling that you know, many people feel like are
going to be tremendous blowouts, and they very well could
be Number eleven two lane versus number six Old Miss
from Oxford seventeen and a half point favorite. Old Miss is.
But let's get into the minutia this thing. Okay, the
first time that they played Jake Redslof. He was getting
(07:46):
to know his guys. It was it was a new
group together. They were trying to get their chemistry together.
He faced the forty percent pressure rate and he was
five or seventeen for fifty six yards. However, three games
later Army pressure Redslof a similar out. He went twenty
two for twenty nine. So he made the adjustment, so
that could bode well for him flounder. Okay, now listen,
(08:07):
Trinidad Tamblis went through the same thing. Julane tried to
blitz him, and he let them up five completions for
thirty plus yards to four different receivers, plus a forty
one yard run. He also torched a lot of other defenses.
Number five total QBR ranking Old Miss. They've improved their
rushing attack and their success rate on thirty seven or
more is pretty dog on good thirty eight point one
(08:30):
percent that's fourth in the country. And their receiver corp
doesn't have a go to guy, but five different players
have caught between thirty and forty six passes. And so
when you look at this Old Miss defense as well,
you know this team that explosive offensively, and so they
allowed a lot of points to Georgia as well, and
(08:50):
you look at their efficiency and it's slightly achieved in
four of the past five games, it's gotten a little
bit better. And then they're pretty solid against the pass
as well. But Tulane's defense during their wind streak, they
had a run that included games against Memphis North Texas
where they blitzed a lot less. They deplored more defensive
backs on average, and played more safe zone coverage. So
(09:14):
they sacrificed the little size for speed and it has maximized,
you know, or minimized excuse me, catastrophes while also increasing
disruption levels. So all that's important in saying that Tulane
is a completely different team as far as how they
approach their business since the last time the old mess
saw them. We know that Lane Kiffin is not there
(09:36):
leading this crew. They've got, you know, most of the
coaches that they've had all year long. But this tu
Lane defense, they have a different way of going about
their business defensively and offensively. Jake Rutslov is handling the
pressure a lot better than he did the last time. However,
that does not change my opinion. But I do think
that this could be a closer game than people expect.
(09:56):
Give me Old Mess to be balling, but I don't
think that they will cover a ball.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Dang yeah, So I'm gonna agree with you. I think
Old miss balls. And I have been looking at this
game as a potential left set, but I don't think
I can do it. I'm probably gonna have to see it.
I'm too chicken to pick the upset before it actually
happens in the college football playoff to this magnitude. The
thing that worries me is Jake Reetzlof. He does have
a lot of turnover worth he plays, so he puts
the ball in harm's way. And the other thing is
(10:22):
man his receivers. They have dropped a ton of passes
from him, thirty drop passes. It's the third most in
all of college football. Guys, you gotta hang on to
the football if Retslof delivers an accurate enough pass, and
I think that's just a recipe for too many missed opportunities.
And I can't put my faith in them to pull
off the upset. If you put the ball in harm's way,
and when you don't, it still might not be a
(10:44):
completion enough against this type of competition, it's just too
much for me to overcome. Ole Miss ends up balling
even without Lane Kiffin.
Speaker 5 (10:53):
Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with ole Miss as well.
I appreciate you trying to sell the game, but I
just don't really know if to has enough. I think
their quarterback might be able to give them some hope
because Retzlov was a guy who is very successful at BYU.
But you talked about it. He puts the ball into
harms way pretty often. You've got a receiving core that
cannot catch the football consistently. You've got to erase all
(11:16):
those mistakes that you've had throughout the season and really
play a perfect game in this one. But I do
think it's interesting first game for Pete Golding as the
head coach. How smooth does the transition go? I think
I think Ole Miss kind of backdoor covers on this game.
But it's gonna be one of those games where, even
though the lead won't be that significant, you'll feel pretty
confident that Ole Miss will be balling for most of
(11:38):
the game.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
All Right, So we move on to James Madison and
Organ and this is the one. Really people think it's
going to be a big time snoozer Oregon. Right now
number twelve JMU, number five Oregon. They are a twenty
and a half point favorite, so it's come down slightly.
And when we talk about the weather, the weather gods
could maybe make this a better game than people think
(12:00):
because one of the biggest concerns is flooding in the
Pacific Northwest. Flood watch alert ends at four pm, right
before kickoff. Their matchup is slated to start at four
thirty pm Pacific time. It's expected to clear up in Eugene.
And so we could have the weather playing effect in
this game. Is gonna be cold and rainy, so we
(12:21):
know in Virginia they get a lot of that, so
they should be ready for it. Now, how can JM
you win this game? Well, for one, put the ball
in the hands of running back Wayne Knight. He has
fifteen carries at twenty plus yards and seven of those
have gone for forty plus yards. A man that flounder
knows well. Alonze Burnett Barnette the third has the lowest
(12:41):
total QBR in the CFP sixty fourth, but he's got
some big time complaced completions on passes thrown at least
twenty yards downfield, he averages thirty nine point nine yards
per complete that's some big plays when they get down
to the red zone their top twenty in the country.
They convert forty seven percent of their third day and
they allow opponents just twenty eight percent of those. They're
(13:03):
aggressive against the pass defensively, their third incompletion rate allowed
and their thirteenth in sack rate. So this is the
crew that likes to get after you, and they like
to get aggressive. Oregon's offense their thirtieth in the nation inefficiency.
The defense though one to twenty nine when we're talking
about reds on efficiency, and against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa,
(13:23):
Dante More averaged just four point two yards per drop
back with three touchdowns excuse me, three interceptions and eight sacks.
Oregon's twenty twenty five performance has been heavily dependent on
staying on schedule. Their first in success rate on standard downs,
but sixty fifth on passing downs. They've got a lot
of receiver injuries, but a lot of their top guys
(13:44):
have been practicing this week, and Oregon's defense ranks just
ninety eighth and stuff rate as far as just stopping
them for little to no gain and forty seventh in
sack rate. So JM you has some omens that are
pointing their way, and I know that they are going
to be keyed up, but I just think it's going
to be too hard to win in this thing. The
weather may help them stay in it early, but I
(14:05):
do think Oregon ends up winning convincingly. The ducks ball man,
You're right that James Madison has some things working in
their favor. I will say you consider the weather being
a factor. WES Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
James Madison is graded as the second best running team
in all of college football run block grade top fifteen
yards per Carrie right there at top ten. I go
to the running game overall being second in the country
for James Madison.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Too bad. Organs number one.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
Literally, the only team that it might benefit more than
James Madison is the team that they're going to be facing.
It's a cruel, cruel world out there for mid majors
in the college football playoff. Oh and Dante Moore is
an NFL draft pick. Give me Oregon to cover slash ball?
Speaker 3 (14:50):
All right? All right?
Speaker 5 (14:52):
Who am I to doubt James Madison, right because my
team got beat by them last year? I'm all in
doubting this game ain't even gonna be close. I think
Oregon by fifty
Well mean, doctor Bearshane, you can't see my eyes unless
my head is bad.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Q T, sir show, I like.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Alright tonight Oklahoma Boomer sooner and the Alabama Crimson tide
not the thin red line that we talked about yesterday
during fire or Fizzle. So the last time that these
two teams played, Oklahoma won twenty three to twenty one.
Oklahoma got special teams plays, they got defensive plays Eli
(00:44):
Bowen's eighty seven yard pickstix, among other things to help
them get the victory.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
That was a muff punt.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
And they were outgained by Alabama four six to twelve.
But that was a different Alabama team because the last
two games, Ty Simpson's total QBR has been a fifty
five point one. But Alabama is eighth in defensive efficiency
and they are only fourteenth in the SEC and rushing,
so that's something that they're going to have to get going.
(01:10):
Oklahoma's defense, they're second nationally and success rate allowed, so
they are stingy bunch third and stuff rate third, and
sack rate fourth and three and out rate and fifth
in red zone touchdown rate allowed. So this is a stingy,
stingy bunch Oklahoma has reached the CFP though, despite an
offense that's ranked ninety fifth in yards per play and
eighty ninth in points per drive. And they are sixteenth
(01:33):
though in red zone touchdown rates, so when they do
get down there, they do get it into the end zone.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
What do I think about this game?
Speaker 1 (01:40):
And for you betters out there, Oklahoma is a one
and a half point favorite, I just think that it
is very hard to go into the home building of
these teams. This will be the first of a playoff
game played at Oklahoma Madhouse doesn't begin to describe what
Alabama's going to see the night. And even though they
are typically in anytime any place type of team that
(02:00):
was under Nick Saban, this is a different ball game here.
Give me Oklahoma sohners boom of soon to get the
victory and they will be balling. I can't help it.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
Every time I see the Curse of A I want
to pick them every single time.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Just how it is. Even if this year they haven't.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Allowed me to benefit from picking them every single time,
they still are good enough to get to the College
Football Playoff, even with maybe some shenanigans going on. If
you ask some people behind the scenes. Why is Alabama here? Look,
Oklahoma's defense is very good. Obviously, nobody trusts their offense.
The one thing I'm looking at is Ty Simpson. He's
not been very good here recently. There's no doubt about that.
(02:42):
The offensive line is good at pass protecting. So can
Ty Simpson actually be free in the pocket with that
very good Oklahoma defense, even if their pass rush isn't
ranked crazy high compared to some of the other teams
in all of college football. I think that's what I'm
looking at. I think Alabama's offense can do enough against
this Oklahoma defense and stick around with a lackluster Oklahoma offense.
(03:05):
It doesn't mean I think Alabama. I think I'm having
a hard time picking against Alabama here. I don't think
I'll have a hard time picking against him the rest
of the way. It's just my lack of belief in
the Sooners. Oh give me Alabama to win. Alabama's balling.
Speaker 5 (03:19):
Yeah, the Oklahoma defense is tremendous, and you're going up
against an offense that has really struggled down the stretch
of the season. I mean Ty Simpson, you know, we've
seen a guy that was at one time looked at
as potentially a Heisman candidate, was looked at as potentially
the first quarterback going off the board in the draft.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
He started to struggle.
Speaker 5 (03:38):
But John Mattier on the other side, nowhere near the
year anybody thought he was going to have either those
numbers offensively not much better. It's going to be an
ugly game. I think it's going to come down to
the end between these two. But I like Oklahoma to
be balling in this one, probably like I don't know,
seventeen fourteen, Like it's not gonna be one you're gonna
(03:59):
be telling your friends about.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
All right. We start off Saturday early.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
We get it cracking Miami in Texas A and m
Miami's offense is tenth and success rate twentieth in red
zone touchdown rate. They got the great Malaco Todi, one
of the best freshmen, arguably the best freshman in the country,
hasn't dropped a single ball all season in four thirty
one miss tackles. But this Miami offense not very explosive
this season. Only six point six percent of their snaps
(04:26):
game twenty plus yards, so they have that. But Miami's defense,
they are disruptive. They forced the highest blown block rate
in the country. I wonder what my blown block rate
was when I was at wake forward.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Can we look on that will be access.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Yeah, Miami has for twice as many turnovers as Texas
A and M.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
That run defense is pretty good. Texas A and M a.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Lot of penalties, and they have only their sixtieth and
third down conversion rate. Marcel Reid, their quarterback, has ten
interceptions as well. But this Texas A and M defense,
they get it done as well, a point six tackles
for lost per game. They've got the lowest third down
conversion rate in the country, and they also have the
highest sack rate in the country. But a lot of
(05:08):
people feel like that this Texas A and M team
has not been tested. Told you that the only team
they played inside of the top five of the SEC
was the Texas Longhorns, and they lost to them by
double digits. I'm not gonna make or I'm not going
to waste much time here acc all day, But not
only because of that, because I believe in the Miami
(05:29):
Hurricanes in this roster. I think they go on the
road and the Miami Hurricanes are balling. Despite any residents
that want to change the name as we talked about.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
Yes, I'm trying to think of what I have more
faith in Texas A and M's lack of strength of
schedule or Carson Beck's lack of performing in big time games.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Carson back, which one do I have? You know?
Speaker 5 (05:50):
Morse Reid also not great in big time games. You
know I was looking at that as well.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
It's interesting because Carson Beck this year has thrown four
Let's see, he's thrown for twenty five touchdown passes and
ten interception. You look at Marcel Reid, He's thrown for
twenty five touchdown passes and ten interceptions. Both guys have
very similar stats seventy seven to nine QBR For Marcel
Reid he can run more than Carson Beck camp when
(06:16):
in doubt go against Carson Beck.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
I'm gonna go with the Texas A and M. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (06:21):
This one's tough, man, because initially, when I saw the matchup,
I loved it for Miami because I think you look
at Texas A and M where were the significant wins
on their schedule?
Speaker 3 (06:32):
How tested was this team actually?
Speaker 5 (06:34):
But then you start factoring in that is probably the
biggest advantage of being at home of anybody in the first.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
Round of the college football Playoff.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
I get it, man, Austin Stadium is going to be
crazy as well, But they're playing James Madison. They could
play that game at James Madison and they would win.
Just a little preview of what's coming up. So I mean,
Kyle Field's going to be off the chain. I mean
It's gonna be incredibly louder for that matchup. I'm gonna
trust Carson Back because I'm stupid, because I don't trust
(07:06):
barso Read that much either. I think there will be
some turnovers in this game for both sides, But give
me Miami to be balling because of the veteran experience
of one Carson.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Back six and m is a three and a half
point favorite in this game, by the way.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
All right, so as we continue.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Now, we've got the two matchups left on ball and
a falling that you know, many people feel like are
going to be tremendous blowouts, and they very well could
be Number eleven two lane versus number six Old Miss
from Oxford seventeen and a half point favorite. Old Miss is.
But let's get into the minutia this thing. Okay, the
first time that they played Jake Redslof. He was getting
(07:46):
to know his guys. It was it was a new
group together. They were trying to get their chemistry together.
He faced the forty percent pressure rate and he was
five or seventeen for fifty six yards. However, three games
later Army pressure Redslof a similar out. He went twenty
two for twenty nine. So he made the adjustment, so
that could bode well for him flounder. Okay, now listen,
(08:07):
Trinidad Tamblis went through the same thing. Julane tried to
blitz him, and he let them up five completions for
thirty plus yards to four different receivers, plus a forty
one yard run. He also torched a lot of other defenses.
Number five total QBR ranking Old Miss. They've improved their
rushing attack and their success rate on thirty seven or
more is pretty dog on good thirty eight point one
(08:30):
percent that's fourth in the country. And their receiver corp
doesn't have a go to guy, but five different players
have caught between thirty and forty six passes. And so
when you look at this Old Miss defense as well,
you know this team that explosive offensively, and so they
allowed a lot of points to Georgia as well, and
(08:50):
you look at their efficiency and it's slightly achieved in
four of the past five games, it's gotten a little
bit better. And then they're pretty solid against the pass
as well. But Tulane's defense during their wind streak, they
had a run that included games against Memphis North Texas
where they blitzed a lot less. They deplored more defensive
backs on average, and played more safe zone coverage. So
(09:14):
they sacrificed the little size for speed and it has maximized,
you know, or minimized excuse me, catastrophes while also increasing
disruption levels. So all that's important in saying that Tulane
is a completely different team as far as how they
approach their business since the last time the old mess
saw them. We know that Lane Kiffin is not there
(09:36):
leading this crew. They've got, you know, most of the
coaches that they've had all year long. But this tu
Lane defense, they have a different way of going about
their business defensively and offensively. Jake Rutslov is handling the
pressure a lot better than he did the last time. However,
that does not change my opinion. But I do think
that this could be a closer game than people expect.
(09:56):
Give me Old Mess to be balling, but I don't
think that they will cover a ball.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Dang yeah, So I'm gonna agree with you. I think
Old miss balls. And I have been looking at this
game as a potential left set, but I don't think
I can do it. I'm probably gonna have to see it.
I'm too chicken to pick the upset before it actually
happens in the college football playoff to this magnitude. The
thing that worries me is Jake Reetzlof. He does have
a lot of turnover worth he plays, so he puts
the ball in harm's way. And the other thing is
(10:22):
man his receivers. They have dropped a ton of passes
from him, thirty drop passes. It's the third most in
all of college football. Guys, you gotta hang on to
the football if Retslof delivers an accurate enough pass, and
I think that's just a recipe for too many missed opportunities.
And I can't put my faith in them to pull
off the upset. If you put the ball in harm's way,
and when you don't, it still might not be a
(10:44):
completion enough against this type of competition, it's just too
much for me to overcome. Ole Miss ends up balling
even without Lane Kiffin.
Speaker 5 (10:53):
Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with ole Miss as well.
I appreciate you trying to sell the game, but I
just don't really know if to has enough. I think
their quarterback might be able to give them some hope
because Retzlov was a guy who is very successful at BYU.
But you talked about it. He puts the ball into
harms way pretty often. You've got a receiving core that
cannot catch the football consistently. You've got to erase all
(11:16):
those mistakes that you've had throughout the season and really
play a perfect game in this one. But I do
think it's interesting first game for Pete Golding as the
head coach. How smooth does the transition go? I think
I think Ole Miss kind of backdoor covers on this game.
But it's gonna be one of those games where, even
though the lead won't be that significant, you'll feel pretty
confident that Ole Miss will be balling for most of
(11:38):
the game.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
All Right, So we move on to James Madison and
Organ and this is the one. Really people think it's
going to be a big time snoozer Oregon. Right now
number twelve JMU, number five Oregon. They are a twenty
and a half point favorite, so it's come down slightly.
And when we talk about the weather, the weather gods
could maybe make this a better game than people think
(12:00):
because one of the biggest concerns is flooding in the
Pacific Northwest. Flood watch alert ends at four pm, right
before kickoff. Their matchup is slated to start at four
thirty pm Pacific time. It's expected to clear up in Eugene.
And so we could have the weather playing effect in
this game. Is gonna be cold and rainy, so we
(12:21):
know in Virginia they get a lot of that, so
they should be ready for it. Now, how can JM
you win this game? Well, for one, put the ball
in the hands of running back Wayne Knight. He has
fifteen carries at twenty plus yards and seven of those
have gone for forty plus yards. A man that flounder
knows well. Alonze Burnett Barnette the third has the lowest
(12:41):
total QBR in the CFP sixty fourth, but he's got
some big time complaced completions on passes thrown at least
twenty yards downfield, he averages thirty nine point nine yards
per complete that's some big plays when they get down
to the red zone their top twenty in the country.
They convert forty seven percent of their third day and
they allow opponents just twenty eight percent of those. They're
(13:03):
aggressive against the pass defensively, their third incompletion rate allowed
and their thirteenth in sack rate. So this is the
crew that likes to get after you, and they like
to get aggressive. Oregon's offense their thirtieth in the nation inefficiency.
The defense though one to twenty nine when we're talking
about reds on efficiency, and against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa,
(13:23):
Dante More averaged just four point two yards per drop
back with three touchdowns excuse me, three interceptions and eight sacks.
Oregon's twenty twenty five performance has been heavily dependent on
staying on schedule. Their first in success rate on standard downs,
but sixty fifth on passing downs. They've got a lot
of receiver injuries, but a lot of their top guys
(13:44):
have been practicing this week, and Oregon's defense ranks just
ninety eighth and stuff rate as far as just stopping
them for little to no gain and forty seventh in
sack rate. So JM you has some omens that are
pointing their way, and I know that they are going
to be keyed up, but I just think it's going
to be too hard to win in this thing. The
weather may help them stay in it early, but I
(14:05):
do think Oregon ends up winning convincingly. The ducks ball man,
You're right that James Madison has some things working in
their favor. I will say you consider the weather being
a factor. WES Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
James Madison is graded as the second best running team
in all of college football run block grade top fifteen
yards per Carrie right there at top ten. I go
to the running game overall being second in the country
for James Madison.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Too bad. Organs number one.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
Literally, the only team that it might benefit more than
James Madison is the team that they're going to be facing.
It's a cruel, cruel world out there for mid majors
in the college football playoff. Oh and Dante Moore is
an NFL draft pick. Give me Oregon to cover slash ball?
Speaker 3 (14:50):
All right? All right?
Speaker 5 (14:52):
Who am I to doubt James Madison, right because my
team got beat by them last year? I'm all in
doubting this game ain't even gonna be close. I think
Oregon by fifty
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