June 6, 2025 • 35 mins
Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
When Elon Musk and Donald Trump joined forces during the presidential campaign, there was always a question over how long their alliance would last and who would prevail if it didn’t work out.
After the public spat between the world’s richest man and its most-powerful leader spun out of control on Thursday, the answer was clear: It was Musk who eventually backed down when Tesla Inc.’s stock price tanked and his net worth crumbled by $34 billion. The damage to Musk’s business empire will be difficult to repair — with Tesla’s stock up only about 4% soon after the market’s open, recouping just some of its previous day’s slide.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:
- Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong.
- Former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu.
- Bloomberg Politics Contributor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Former RNC Communications Director Lisa Camooso Miller.
- Bankrate Washington Bureau Chief Mark Hamrick.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
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Speaker 2 (00:25):
Always a pleasure to compare notes on a jobs Day
with Bloomberg Economics chief US economist and A Wong. And
is this being framed properly in terms of moderation and
good feels on Wall Street that this economy might be
actually in better shape than a lot.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Of folks thought.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
Yeah, So notice how the bond market reacted in an
outsize way to just thirteen thousand upside surprise. I think
what this tells me is that the bond market and
a lot of traders were positioned for a very weak
prant coming in, and what we're seeing is more of
an unraveling of these positions as opposed of suddenly this
(01:01):
job's report inspired confidence in the labor market because when
you look at the numbers, the three month moving average
of monthly job gains is only one hundred and thirty
five thousand, and before this Job's report, even with our
expected lower jobstration in May, we thought that three month
trend was one fifty three, and of course, if you
(01:22):
use the consensus forecast coming in, their expected three month
average would be more like one seventy thousand. So the
trend basically the revisions, the ninety five thousand jobs downward
revisions led to a trend job growth pace that's actually
lower than what everybody thought. So I would say that
on net, the takeaway from this Job's report is actually
(01:45):
it's weaker than what most people thought.
Speaker 5 (01:49):
Well, especially when we consider the kind of sectors where
we're seeing hiring versus where we're not very heavy concentration
and leisure hospitality in healthcare, not so much in the
other areas of the economy.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
So we actually had expected that leisure hospitality would be
a weak point. And also transportation of warehousing given the
steep drop and imports container's volume, so I actually thought
that the fact that jobs are coming from there is
a bit suspicious and signify that there will be downward revisions.
(02:21):
We saw that most of the downward revisions in the
last two months was in the transportation and warehousing sector.
Last month, based on the printed data, you would have
thought that that sector added jobs, but they are all
revised away today.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
The federal government lost twenty two thousand jobs in May.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Is that the doge? And is that as bad as
it gets?
Speaker 4 (02:41):
So that part we actually expected that, partly because every
month you have a natural attrition rate of the federal
workforce of roughly thirteen thousand and without being replaced. As
there's this federal hiring freeze, you would naturally see at
least thirteen thousand jobs federal workers leaving the work right
(03:02):
through attrition. And then on top of that that you
have maybe seven thousand more from DOCHE. And we know
for a fact that many people are indeed being laid
off from DOCHE, and they are not necessarily being paid.
I mean, the new trunch of federal workers that are
laid off are not being paid till the end of
the fiscal year.
Speaker 5 (03:21):
So how is the FED looking at all of this?
Speaker 6 (03:23):
Anna?
Speaker 5 (03:23):
And I asked this knowing that President Trump is looking
at the FED, having today taken to true social to
say too late at the FED, which is how he
refers to Chairman Jerome Pwell is a disaster. He goes
on to say, go for a full point rocket fuel.
Is there anything in this data that suggests the FED
will be thinking about cutting even a quarter point, let
alone on traces?
Speaker 4 (03:42):
Right? It's interesting because the administration is characterizing this job
report is strong yet recommending one point of cuts, which
would be a panic cut if if the FED were
to go for that. So the Fed is more focused
on the inflation print. We are getting the cp I
report next Wednesday, and Wall Street is very vicxated on
(04:03):
the CPI report right now.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
The President isn't going to stop teasing or urging the
FED share to do what he wants them to do.
What does the bond market think about this? Or are
we still taking this seriously or are we getting to
the point where there's not much reaction to it?
Speaker 4 (04:22):
Okay, Yeah, I think we have been seeing just a
small term premium being added the more Trump tweets about
Fed policy. But I think for the bond market, the
more important thing is this growth fear narrative. It seems
like they're just responding very outside, in an outside fashion
(04:44):
to any hints of recession or weaker heart data.
Speaker 5 (04:48):
All right, analog of Bloomberg Economics where she's our chief
US economist, joining US on this job's day, Thank you
so much, and of course show when we consider what
the bond market is looking at here, it's not just
questions around the data and what it means for Mond
Harry policy, but as we've been discussing for weeks, if
not months now, they're also worried about fiscal policy and
the potential deficit impact of the bill still working its
way through Capitol Hill, and in that way, the bond
(05:09):
market and Elon Musk might be a little bit aligned.
Speaker 6 (05:12):
As remember this whole big.
Speaker 5 (05:13):
Breakup we've seen between Donald Trump and Elon Musk started
with Musk's criticism exactly of this legislation and how much
it could add to the federal deficit.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Even though we keep hearing from Republicans that it has
everything to do with the elimination of ev tax credits
and incentives inside the President's bill, Elon Musk said, it's
not about that, and we know the President just as
recently as a couple of weeks ago, said that's something
they never even talked about. I will note, by the way,
not much from Elon Musk in the last twenty four
hours on Twitter.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Maybe he's finally getting in that.
Speaker 5 (05:40):
Yeah, maybe he's taking the advice of the person who said, hey,
you should cool off for a few days.
Speaker 6 (05:46):
To which he responded, good advice.
Speaker 5 (05:48):
The question is is a cooling off necessarily amending offenses
between the world's richest man and arguably the world's most
powerful man. And on that note, we turned to Christan Nunu,
the former Republican governor of New Hampshire, who was ranting
a serial balance of power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Governor,
welcome back. It's always great to have you. You, of course,
are familiar with both of these characters that we are
(06:08):
talking about here. Are you surprised that there has been
a falling out between these two, or at the very
least surprised by the velocity of the break?
Speaker 7 (06:18):
No, I am, I actually am.
Speaker 8 (06:20):
I've worked with both of them, and I thought cooler
heads would prevail over the bill. I think Elon probably
He's Elon has never been great with understanding the value
of messaging and the timing, and he probably went a
bit too far, not just support, not just saying hey,
we need to push back on the big beautiful bill.
Speaker 7 (06:37):
But I think it was the you went to.
Speaker 8 (06:39):
One Pennsylvania without me comment that really probably come under
Trump's skin more than anything, and that escalated things.
Speaker 7 (06:47):
I do believe though, cooler heads will prevail.
Speaker 8 (06:50):
There'll be some reconciling, a private conversation here. Things will
quiet down. They'll get beyond the bill. They still want
the best for this country. They have, you know, on
a couple issues. They may different here and there, but
you know, things that are inflamed. I think the Democrats
are excited. There could be a breakup of the two bros.
So to say, But at the end of the day,
I think there'll be some Cold War peace found.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Well, Governor, it's good to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg.
We just heard from Elon Musk. He just posted while
you were talking on X very simply Bannon is a criminal.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
Yeah, we're going to get right to the point here.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I don't know if you've heard some of the remarks
that Steve Bannon has made about Elon Musk over the
course of this second term for Donald Trump. He weighed
in with Politico saying that he and Peter Navarro are
recommending executive orders to implement the Defense Production Act to
seize both SpaceX and Starlink take them under government control.
While Elon Musk is investigated for his immigration status, security clearance,
(07:47):
and drug use.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
What is Maga's hang up with Elon?
Speaker 8 (07:54):
Well, I don't think it's the Maga hang up or
even a Republican hang up. I think Bannon and a
few others have just never I understood the relationship that
that the President and Elon had. I think Bannon is
again he's giddy because finally the guy he never really
appreciated and wanted in the White House in the first
place is kind of getting his come up ins if
you will, with the President. So I think there's just
(08:15):
a select group of people that that are just like, okay,
you know, they're there. They there was never they didn't
have that relationship that that the President had. Remember, I
mean Trump and Elon would talk every day, multiple times
a day, every night. They have a very long, uh
and and firm relationship that is obviously under some severe
fire right now.
Speaker 7 (08:34):
But it's not built on a on a house of cards.
Speaker 8 (08:36):
I mean, it really is built on I think a
vision that that the two of them share. So ultimately,
you know, I don't think it'll ever go back to
the way it was. Don't get me wrong, but I
think cooler heads will prevail on both sides, especially Elon's,
but on both sides because you know, there's there's benefits
to that that each of them have to the other,
not just commercial and financial benefits, but political benefits and
and trying to get the country back on track. So
(08:58):
you know, I think this will be an interesting chapter
when someone writes the book on it all, to be sure,
but I don't think it's going to define the presidency
or crash the bill or be.
Speaker 7 (09:08):
It's more of a trivial thing. At this point, Well,
forget the book, go on.
Speaker 5 (09:13):
I'm waiting for the docu series or whatever is going
to show up on eve.
Speaker 6 (09:17):
If there's going to be a reunion of some tid
host I'm.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Watching them right for Bravo.
Speaker 7 (09:21):
I think we're waiting fair enough.
Speaker 6 (09:23):
We are living it certainly. Governor.
Speaker 5 (09:25):
We've spoken with you before on this program about how
you actually admired Elon Musk in the Department of Government
Efficiencies fundamental mission, which was to reduce the size of
the federal government get our fiscal house in order. So
in that vein, do you think Elon is fundamentally wrong
about his accusations around this bill being too big to
be beautiful at having too much of an impact on
the debt and deficit of the United States.
Speaker 7 (09:48):
He's right. Elon is right on this one.
Speaker 8 (09:51):
There's no question about that that the federal government has
to start making tough decisions. And I'm not And we
can put it in the Elon context. He was asked
to come in do things that no one else has
ever done in terms of exposing waste and fraud and
finding places to cut tens, if not hundreds of billions
of dollars. No one had done it, No one had
ever done it that fast and that strong. He did
it for the president. He sacrificed a lot for it.
(10:13):
And now he's like, wait, but I don't get anything
for this. I make all that sacrifice and you guys
aren't even gonna go through with it. Now there'll be
some recision bills, but already we all know those recision
bills are are are a very small piece of the
pie that the federal government really needs to take on.
So I completely get the frustration and the disappointment that
he has when it looks like that we're going to
(10:35):
the fiscal conservatives are adding to the debt, Like, what
are we doing here right, This is crazy.
Speaker 7 (10:41):
So it's and it's not just him.
Speaker 8 (10:42):
You see it from the more independent fiscal minds, whether
it's it's the Jamie Diamonds and you know, the hedge
fund managers and these guys that really watch this economy
deeply saying yes, they are hedging themselves into other currencies
right now.
Speaker 7 (10:57):
Not because they don't believe in America.
Speaker 8 (10:59):
But let's let's remember we don't no longer have a
triple bond rating, right, It's just good practice right now
from a financial standpoint to look at other currencies. We're
still going to be the reserve currency in the short term,
but there are threats to that. There's no question to that,
and nobody wants to see it. But it's all because
of the debt and inability. I believe there's a bit
of a political revolution coming where all this money that
(11:21):
goes to candidates is going to start to go back
to the states and issues where there's opportunities. I think
we've talked about it on your show before.
Speaker 7 (11:29):
I'm a believer.
Speaker 8 (11:29):
There's twenty seven states that have passed balanced budget amendment
resolutions for the federal government.
Speaker 7 (11:34):
You need five or six more.
Speaker 8 (11:35):
That's it, and then the states impose a balanced budget
amendment on the federal government. That's how the founding fathers
designed it. And we're right at the finish line there.
That's a great opportunity for an Elon Musk to come
in right and say, look, I'm going to fund that.
I'm not going to fund these conservative politicians anymore who
say one thing and don't do another. I'm going to
fund opportunities in the states to force the federal government
(11:57):
to get their act together fiscally. So there's just going
to be a different mindset given that this was the
golden opportunity. This is where America said, we know you
have to make tough decisions. It might be a bumpy road,
We're ready for it. And then they backed off. They
all chickened out. Yet Josh Holly Center Holly, he's supposed
to be a conservative, and he's telling people we can't
touch medicaid because it would be a political, political suicide.
(12:19):
We didn't elect you to go there and make decisions
based on politics. We elected you to go there and
make tough decisions because America has some really tough financial
times ahead of it and we're standing it.
Speaker 7 (12:30):
And what a great opportunity.
Speaker 8 (12:32):
For the first time in a long time, the public
is thinking about debt and deficit. They're willing to understand
that there could be some bumps in the or the
economy is strong.
Speaker 7 (12:39):
What better time to do it with a strong economy.
Speaker 8 (12:42):
And I know Trump wants the one percent cut right now,
I would I would tell the President don't waste it.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
You're going to need that in the fall.
Speaker 8 (12:49):
By the way, right you're going to see the jobless
number really skyrocket this fall. That's when all these federal
employees are going to really come on the rolls. I'd
love to know what Anna thinks about the timing of
all that as well.
Speaker 7 (12:59):
She's brilliant.
Speaker 8 (13:00):
But these a lot of these these jobless claims out
of the federal government will really accelerate this fall, and
that's when you're gonna want the cut, not to one percent,
but maybe a quarter a half percent. And I think
I think the feder Reserve chair knows that. So all
these are big pieces of the puzzle and Republicans should
be doing their job, and they're they're they're kind of
blowing it, you know, So I get I get Elon's frustration.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Here, Well, boy, We're gonna be playing back a bunch
of this tape in the fall.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Governor, we only have a minute left.
Speaker 7 (13:26):
You got me going.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
It sounds to me, it sounds to me like you
see Elon Musk as somebody who came to Washington and
saw too much to take it seriously. And maybe the
same dialogue you had with yourself when you had a
chance to run for Senate and you said, no way,
if you were in the Senate, you'd vote no on.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
This Yeah, I'd vote no on this bill. Yeah I could.
I couldn't get it.
Speaker 8 (13:47):
Look, if you're not appreciating that of all these smaller
issues we talk about, the debt and deficit are number
freaking one, and there's no two, three and four behind that.
Because the car crash is coming. It's not politics, it
is math, people, Right, Inflation is going to skyrocket when
we have to borrow, when social Security goes backrupt. So look,
everyone just needs to get their heads together, make some
(14:08):
tough decisions and put you know, America's financial future first.
Speaker 7 (14:11):
The world is counting on us to do the right thing.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Wow, thanks for not making us have to bleep you.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Chris Snunu, the former Republican Governor of New Hampshire, come
back and see us soon with Kaylee Lines.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn
on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (14:45):
I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew. Here in Washington, where
we all remaincaptivated by what is happening and or not
happening between President Trump and Elon muskause things do seem
to have quieted down in a big way today, in fact,
no vitriol being exchanged back and for on social media
or otherwise between the President and the world's richest man.
But yesterday was obviously quite a doozy, and it seemed
(15:07):
that the doom spiral really started when the President was
asked about the criticism Elon Musk was lobbying toward the
Big Beautiful Bill on social media when he was sitting
with the German Chancellor in the Oval Office.
Speaker 6 (15:19):
This is what the President said at the time.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
And if you saw the statements he made about me,
which I'm sure you can get very easily, it's very
fresh on tape.
Speaker 9 (15:27):
He said the most beautiful things about me.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
And he hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm
sure that'll be next.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
But I'm very disappointed in Eland.
Speaker 9 (15:34):
I've helped Elan a lot.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
He worked hard and he did a good job. And
I'll be honest, I think he misses the place.
Speaker 5 (15:41):
I think he got out there and all of a
sudden he wasn't in this beautiful oval office and he was,
and he's got nice offices too, But there's.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
Something about this.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
When I was telling the Chancellor, this is where it is.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Since then, President Trump says he wants to move on,
and reports earlier today of a phone call in the
offing between the White House and Elon muhe Us have
been disproven by Bloomberg. There is no phone call in
the works, according to people familiar with the matter, and
so we fester.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
Elon Musk is posting again. By the way, he took.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Quite a few hours off Twitter and is now tweeting
about Steve Bannon, calling him a criminal. Steve Bannon had
even worse things to say about Elon Musk. As we
assemble our political panel for their take on this, Here
we go again with Genie Shanzino, Bloomberg Politics contributor with
the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress.
Lisa Camuso Miller, Republican strategist, former RNC Comms director and
(16:34):
host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Lisa, I'm curious your
thoughts on this because Steve Bannon has been hating on
Elon Musk since long before he went into the White House.
Does President Trump move on and this becomes a Maga
versus Elon shouting match?
Speaker 10 (16:51):
I mean, you bet the President doesn't have time for
this kind of back and forth, and it really does
seem very petty. But you know, if you're Steve Bannon
and you're looking for someone to go after, I certainly
think that this is going to be one. And the
other thing, Joe, that we've seen over the course of
the last probably thirty minutes since I spoke to you
last was that it seems like the Democrats are making
(17:13):
some headway and some waves and you know, sort of
Olive branches into Elon Musk. So the Democrats are looking
at Elon Musk as someone that they could very well
connect with and look for opportunities there. So there's going
to be a lot of repositioning and a lot of
interesting things happen over the course of the next couple hours.
And it's interesting, and it certainly is not a fight
(17:36):
that is going to go away anytime soon, but it's
going to probably land at Steve Bannon and Elon Musk
and Donald Trump.
Speaker 11 (17:43):
The President will have other work to do and move
away from this.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
Well, that's pretty incredible to consider, Genie, not only that
the President and Elon Musk can go from friends to
front ofies or perhaps outright enemies, but that Elon Musk
could go from arguably Democrats to me number one aside
from President Trump, to being something of an ally, something
of an opportunity.
Speaker 9 (18:07):
I think that's gonna be very, very tough for Democrats.
You know, I'm here in New York and we are
looking at primaries in New York and New Jersey for
mayor and governor respectively. And I have to tell you,
almost every one of the Democrats running has commercials and
has made statements. A number of them running against not
(18:30):
just Donald Trump, but Elon Musk. So I'm not so
sure it's going to be easy for the Democrats to
go from making Elon Musk enemy number one and tied
intimately with Donald Trump to then embracing him as somebody
on their corner around their side. So I think that's
going to be tough in this election cycle. Long term,
(18:50):
maybe if it was an issue of funding, incredibly helpful
to the Democrats, but again, that's going to be a
hard switch. Likewise, it's a heart switch, which for the
GOP to be selling to us that Donald Trump is
this cutter in chief. He is the person who can
single handedly take the government and shape it up and
cut it and then turn around when he raises the
(19:13):
issue that the governor just mentioned to you about the
deficit and say, oh no, no, no, he's wrong about that.
So on both sides, this is very tricky messaging for
these parties.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
Lisa Elon Musk making the point last evening that Donald
Trump would not be the president if it were not
for the vast financial support and emotional support I guess
he gave not only the president but the Republican cause
on the campaign trail. The fact of the matter is,
though We saw his influence wane significantly as he tried
to get involved in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. We
(19:46):
covered that race together, where the conservative candidate lost. Musk
said to have egg on face and the Doge effort
forget the wall of receipts. He promised two trillion dollars
in cuts and came up with about nine billion, I
think was the number that we ended up with, at
least in terms of this recision package. Did Elon Musk
actually do anything to help Republicans in Washington?
Speaker 11 (20:08):
I mean, I think if your him, he probably have
buyer's remorse.
Speaker 10 (20:11):
He spent a ton of money and has affected almost
zero change. In fact, if anything, not only did he
invest in his time and his effort in making cuts
and trying to do all of the things that he did,
he also suffered a tremendous loss when it comes to Tesla.
So there's so much when you're Elon Musk, you're looking
at losses all across the board, and so any threat
(20:32):
that he has, really it comes up empty when you
look at it from a Republican point of view. So
the threat of money in these races, it doesn't seem
to make a change. Because Elon Musk makes the fight
all about himself, and that, I think is what turns
this into more of a tit for tat and nothing
really that will have any kind of political fallout other
(20:53):
than Elon Musk eventually maybe quietly walking away.
Speaker 5 (20:57):
Well, when you consider the money here, it is worth
pointing out that his net worth went down thirty four
billion dollars yesterday alone, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Still, though,
leaves him with three hundred and thirty four billion dollars
in wealth, So all things are relative, Genie when we
consider those virtually unlimited resources. To Lisa's point about perhaps
(21:18):
the money not being so much of a factor for Republicans,
do you really believe that even an incumbent Republican has
no reason to be concerned that Elon Musk could even
more quietly fund a harder to right, more fiscally conservative
primary challenger and put you in a tricky position in
the twenty twenty six season.
Speaker 9 (21:35):
He absolutely could. I mean, this is somebody who spent
what two hundred and fifty million dollars getting Donald Trump
elected and getting himself to lead Doge another fifteen to
twenty on House races. If he spends just this scentilla
of that that he could have a huge impact on
any of these individual races. And the other thing is,
(21:55):
first of all, I have to say, Elon Musk doesn't
do anything quietly. I think everybody is dreaming if they
think he can away quietly. But he's also got two
hundred and twenty million or so followers on Twitter, and
you can have a huge, huge impact that way as well.
Just yesterday he was telling his followers to call their
(22:16):
congressmen and women and their senators and tell them to
vote against the bill. As we all know, if you
are familiar with Congress, even just a few calls bombarding
an office can have a big impact. And he's got
two hundred and twenty million followers and eyes around the
world on him, so he has a big megaphone there.
And I think Donald Trump knows that, which is why
(22:38):
he'd like nothing more than to reshape this conversation on
the bill. Probably smooth things over with Elon Musk and
move ahead. And by the way, Kaylene, don't you think
Gwyneth Paltrow and Chris Martin should do some conscious uncoupling
helps Donald from But don't laugh up and get them,
get them moving forward. What happened to that? This is
(22:58):
more like Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt. It's not the
way it should be.
Speaker 5 (23:03):
You're the first person who has suggested this is like
Bradulina all over again.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
National inquirer Uh the other thing?
Speaker 11 (23:16):
Please, all of those all of those followers.
Speaker 10 (23:18):
Elon Musk has selected all of them because he owns Twitter,
so all of the followers, I'm not sure even all
of them want to be following him. I think he
made sure that everyone was following him when he bought
that platform in the first place.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Let's go to the other extremely, So, what are the
chances that these guys make up this weekend and they're
holding some news conference together on Monday? Tesla stock is
up and the Doge's back, Baby, I mean, that's entirely
never gonna happen, because you can't come back from the
Epstein thing.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
You can't. You say that and you're done right, take
the l.
Speaker 11 (23:52):
Out a lover and it's over. Joe.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
This is really the conversation we're having right now.
Speaker 5 (24:01):
But there is serious consequence here. As we were just
discussing the potential campaign finance implications, the funding for candidates, obviously,
the various national security implications, the implications for Elon Musk's business,
for all of that conversation, though, Genie, are we really
sitting here on this Friday thinking that Elon Musk, through
his social media tirades and falling out with the president,
(24:22):
has actually fundamentally changed the trajectory of this legislation on
Capitol Hill? Or for all of his stomping his feet,
is this thing still destined to pass anyway?
Speaker 9 (24:32):
I think in the end it likely still passes, But
we actually don't know the calls that I was just
talking about. That's a real risk for the Republicans. Then
the fact is we all talked about for so long.
They have a very narrow majority. It's not going to
take more than a few of them to say, you
know what, I'm not going to sign on to this
(24:53):
for this bill to go down. If I had to guess,
which is never a good idea, Kayley, But if I
had a guess, I'd say Trump pushes this through. His
presidency depends on this. He's got to get this through.
But the reality is once you get it through, Historically
on the back end, when we've seen this happen like
with Barack Obama, for instance, Obamacare, your party loses that
(25:16):
mid term and they lose big. So President is going
to have to sell this thing after it passes. And
the sales job so far has been a deplorable, deplorable
part of what the Republicans have tried to do. They're
going to have to do much better going forward. And
if they don't have Elon Musk on their side, that
is all that much more difficult to do. And you
(25:38):
just heard Governor soon who tell you the deficit is
it And so if Governor is saying that that, you
know there's other Republicans and moderates out there who feel
the same way.
Speaker 6 (25:50):
Lisa, we have thirty seconds left.
Speaker 5 (25:51):
Do you still think this bill ultimately gets through.
Speaker 11 (25:54):
The bill's going to get through, Kayley, It's going to pass.
Speaker 10 (25:56):
It's going to be a challenge, but it's going to
get done because I don't think any of our US senators,
Republicans or Democrats are going to want to be on
the side of Elon Musk over the President of the
United States.
Speaker 6 (26:06):
All Right, we'll leave it there.
Speaker 5 (26:07):
Lisa Camusa Miller and Jeanie Shanzano our political panel on
this Friday thank you so much for joining us. Of
course show, it's not just any Friday, it's also jobs Friday,
and we have to get back to the data.
Speaker 6 (26:18):
Coming up.
Speaker 3 (26:18):
Yeah, good conversation coming up.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
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Speaker 2 (26:39):
It's always about what's beneath the headlines that we're talking
about here on this program when it comes to economic data.
And Mark Hamrick's had a couple of hours to dig
through the report. He's the Washington Bureau Chief senior economic
analyst at Bank Rate and I'm glad to say he's
with us in studio today.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
Mark. It's great to see you. Good to be with you.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
So when's the recession? You know, I'm supposed to not No,
it's not today, But that was a conversation just a
couple of weeks ago. Remember, recession ods were rising, the
tariff program destroyed the economy.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
This is actually looking pretty good. What's your take?
Speaker 12 (27:10):
Well, backward looking right. So this is a snapshot from
around the twelfth of last month. I think recession odds
are probably still elevated relative to what is nominal, but
you know, down from the fifty percent odds that we
may have seen, you.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Know, early April.
Speaker 12 (27:31):
You know, at bank rate, much the same as with
your audience, we're always trying to take at bank rate,
we're always trying to take a bit of a long
term view. I know for traders, those who are trying
to get in and out of markets or positions, that's different.
The vast majority of Americans need to be thinking about
the long term and part of that means saving for emergencies,
(27:56):
for the inevitable rainy day. Right the rainy day isn't
here right now. But what's the number one complain about
the economy. It's price levels.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
What is likely to go up.
Speaker 12 (28:07):
In the current and intermediate terms, price levels. So there's
not going to be relief from that. And so if
you go out, you know, maybe not in front of
this office in downtown Washington, but a little beyond the belway,
ask people how do you feel about the economy. They're
not feeling too good about it, and so to them recession.
(28:28):
You can have your recession definitions and keep it. We'll
make our own judgments about how we're feeling about the economy.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Okay, fair enough. What are you seeing in the numbers here?
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Stronger than expected payrolls, steady unemployment rate is what the
headline is going to read. When you start looking at
wages and participation. What does that tell you about the
stage of the market.
Speaker 12 (28:45):
Well, first of all, I don't want to lean too
far forward on the better than expected. The consensus that
I was looking at was around one hundred and twenty
five thousand. We beat that by fourteen thousand. You know,
no one should be going out buying champagne.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Because of course, and by the way, that could be
revised in a month.
Speaker 12 (29:02):
As as that's perhaps the most important point, because this
was the fourth straight month of downward revisions, and the
sharpest downward revisions that we've had in that series minus
ninety five thousand the previous two months. That takes a
lot of the would be luster off of this beating.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Expectation understood well, when you consider the potential impact of
the DOGE and federal workforce cuts. A couple of months ago,
you were reading and hearing all the same stories I was.
It was going to crater the job market in certainly
areas like.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
Washington, DC.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
We still haven't seen the tens of thousands of job
losses on the government level, have we.
Speaker 3 (29:47):
They haven't showed up yet.
Speaker 12 (29:48):
Many of these people are still on severance, so they're
not claiming it's not showing up. And you know, the
good news for those affected people is that, you know
they would be looking for work at a time when
the unemployment rate is still regarded as historically low at
four point two percent. But let's wait till September October
(30:12):
and see what the jobless claims and that component look like.
As you know, Challenger Gray and Christmas earlier in the
week talked about accelerating job cut announcements in sectors where
we hadn't been seeing those occupying the top two positions,
that with services and retailing, and hundreds of thousands of
(30:32):
DOGE related job cut announcements elsewhere. So I think, you know,
I'm not here to preach gloom and doom. I'm here
to preach caution sure, and to look past the immediate
headline numbers and try to think about a variety of
scenarios that could be developing here in the second half
of the year, which is weeks away.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
Well, this is why we're asking these questions, Mark Hamrick.
We heard from President Trump this morning a number of times,
and I'm going to ask if his take on J.
Powell in a moment. But his first reaction was, America
is hot. This is all caps. Six months ago was
cold as ice, border is closed. Prices are down, wages
are up. Our own Michael McKee took a harder look
(31:16):
at that and went back six months and found that
none of that is actually factual. Prices are not down
from six months ago. Wages are not up from six
months ago. He's calling at the same time for a
full point cut from J.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Powell. It's not going to get that, is he.
Speaker 12 (31:35):
Well, first of all, you know, how does he come
to that conclusion or recommendation when on the one hand,
he's talking about a robust economy.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
Yeah, we're hot, but we need to cut.
Speaker 12 (31:46):
And when do you cut by one hundred basis points.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
In a crisis? Yes? Exactly. Can you imagine? Okay, let's
talk about that.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
Imagine if the FED announced today between meetings it was
cutting by a full percentage point, what would happen on
the market.
Speaker 12 (31:59):
I mean you'd have lights spinning in here, and it'd
be breaking news all day long.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
Been a long time since we've had a surprise. We
don't need to what's j Powell.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
Looking at though, when he sees data like this and
you're looking ahead urging caution six months from now, reminding
us of a dual mandate.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
They're concerned about this job market too.
Speaker 12 (32:16):
Well, First of all, you know, as you know, the
expectation right now is we don't have any rate cuts,
probably for at least the next two meetings, which is
June eighteenth and then July, and then we get into
mid September. I think that they'll continue to say that,
and we're what a week and a half away from
the next announcement of news conference, I think they'll continue
(32:36):
to say the monetary policy is in a good place. Obviously,
that's why they're not moving it, and they want to
be responsive to the way the economy unfolds in the
months ahead. You know, he regards himself and they have
a take with the law that they are effectively bulletproof
from the president's rhetoric, and so if anything, he wants
(33:02):
to maintain the credibility not only of the institution that
he and his colleague serve, but also the roughly year
that he has left as chair, he wants to maintain
the credibility of all that. So the last thing in
the world that he's going to do is get into
an Elon must style you know, yeah, retort.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
I wasn't going to bring.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
Up a lot Well, you know that's another show, right, Well, no,
we're going to do that as soon as we change
the topic. But look, you're right, a week from Wednesday, correct,
we've got the next eighteen FED meeting. You haven't said
the word tariff yet. He's going to have to manage that.
And the fact is nothing's really changed on that front
since the last FED meeting. He's waiting for what July
ninth to find out what the heck is going on.
Speaker 12 (33:44):
Well, you know, I think in the environment we're in,
the tariffs are what we're going to be dealing with
for the foreseeable future. If there's one tool in the
President's toolbox that is on the top aside from music,
social media, it's tariffs. And we could try to, you know,
(34:04):
Monday morning quarterback. All we want on where they end up,
where they're going, where they'll be Monday but I think
a baseline is you have to assume they're going to
be with us for the foreseeable future in some form.
And let's think about the fact that we know that
you know, tariffs are a tax on imports. It has
to be paid by businesses and consumers or some combination thereof.
(34:28):
And they are going to be with us for the foreseeable.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Two point eight trillion dollars the CBO says they'll raise
in the next ten years.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
What's the sustainability, Well, they've already changed.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
But it's fascinating that we're trying to get a tax
cut done. Well, we're also essentially taxing Americans two point
eight trillion to pay for it. I'll get a lot
of bad mail there, but maybe you can explain it
to me.
Speaker 7 (34:50):
Mark.
Speaker 3 (34:50):
It's great to have you.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
Happy job today, the great Mark Hamrick at bank Rate
and a great conversation for you here. Thanks for listening
to the Balance of Power pot Make sure to subscribe
if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you
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Speaker 2 (00:25):
Always a pleasure to compare notes on a jobs Day
with Bloomberg Economics chief US economist and A Wong. And
is this being framed properly in terms of moderation and
good feels on Wall Street that this economy might be
actually in better shape than a lot.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Of folks thought.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
Yeah, So notice how the bond market reacted in an
outsize way to just thirteen thousand upside surprise. I think
what this tells me is that the bond market and
a lot of traders were positioned for a very weak
prant coming in, and what we're seeing is more of
an unraveling of these positions as opposed of suddenly this
(01:01):
job's report inspired confidence in the labor market because when
you look at the numbers, the three month moving average
of monthly job gains is only one hundred and thirty
five thousand, and before this Job's report, even with our
expected lower jobstration in May, we thought that three month
trend was one fifty three, and of course, if you
(01:22):
use the consensus forecast coming in, their expected three month
average would be more like one seventy thousand. So the
trend basically the revisions, the ninety five thousand jobs downward
revisions led to a trend job growth pace that's actually
lower than what everybody thought. So I would say that
on net, the takeaway from this Job's report is actually
(01:45):
it's weaker than what most people thought.
Speaker 5 (01:49):
Well, especially when we consider the kind of sectors where
we're seeing hiring versus where we're not very heavy concentration
and leisure hospitality in healthcare, not so much in the
other areas of the economy.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
So we actually had expected that leisure hospitality would be
a weak point. And also transportation of warehousing given the
steep drop and imports container's volume, so I actually thought
that the fact that jobs are coming from there is
a bit suspicious and signify that there will be downward revisions.
(02:21):
We saw that most of the downward revisions in the
last two months was in the transportation and warehousing sector.
Last month, based on the printed data, you would have
thought that that sector added jobs, but they are all
revised away today.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
The federal government lost twenty two thousand jobs in May.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Is that the doge? And is that as bad as
it gets?
Speaker 4 (02:41):
So that part we actually expected that, partly because every
month you have a natural attrition rate of the federal
workforce of roughly thirteen thousand and without being replaced. As
there's this federal hiring freeze, you would naturally see at
least thirteen thousand jobs federal workers leaving the work right
(03:02):
through attrition. And then on top of that that you
have maybe seven thousand more from DOCHE. And we know
for a fact that many people are indeed being laid
off from DOCHE, and they are not necessarily being paid.
I mean, the new trunch of federal workers that are
laid off are not being paid till the end of
the fiscal year.
Speaker 5 (03:21):
So how is the FED looking at all of this?
Speaker 6 (03:23):
Anna?
Speaker 5 (03:23):
And I asked this knowing that President Trump is looking
at the FED, having today taken to true social to
say too late at the FED, which is how he
refers to Chairman Jerome Pwell is a disaster. He goes
on to say, go for a full point rocket fuel.
Is there anything in this data that suggests the FED
will be thinking about cutting even a quarter point, let
alone on traces?
Speaker 4 (03:42):
Right? It's interesting because the administration is characterizing this job
report is strong yet recommending one point of cuts, which
would be a panic cut if if the FED were
to go for that. So the Fed is more focused
on the inflation print. We are getting the cp I
report next Wednesday, and Wall Street is very vicxated on
(04:03):
the CPI report right now.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
The President isn't going to stop teasing or urging the
FED share to do what he wants them to do.
What does the bond market think about this? Or are
we still taking this seriously or are we getting to
the point where there's not much reaction to it?
Speaker 4 (04:22):
Okay, Yeah, I think we have been seeing just a
small term premium being added the more Trump tweets about
Fed policy. But I think for the bond market, the
more important thing is this growth fear narrative. It seems
like they're just responding very outside, in an outside fashion
(04:44):
to any hints of recession or weaker heart data.
Speaker 5 (04:48):
All right, analog of Bloomberg Economics where she's our chief
US economist, joining US on this job's day, Thank you
so much, and of course show when we consider what
the bond market is looking at here, it's not just
questions around the data and what it means for Mond
Harry policy, but as we've been discussing for weeks, if
not months now, they're also worried about fiscal policy and
the potential deficit impact of the bill still working its
way through Capitol Hill, and in that way, the bond
(05:09):
market and Elon Musk might be a little bit aligned.
Speaker 6 (05:12):
As remember this whole big.
Speaker 5 (05:13):
Breakup we've seen between Donald Trump and Elon Musk started
with Musk's criticism exactly of this legislation and how much
it could add to the federal deficit.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Even though we keep hearing from Republicans that it has
everything to do with the elimination of ev tax credits
and incentives inside the President's bill, Elon Musk said, it's
not about that, and we know the President just as
recently as a couple of weeks ago, said that's something
they never even talked about. I will note, by the way,
not much from Elon Musk in the last twenty four
hours on Twitter.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Maybe he's finally getting in that.
Speaker 5 (05:40):
Yeah, maybe he's taking the advice of the person who said, hey,
you should cool off for a few days.
Speaker 6 (05:46):
To which he responded, good advice.
Speaker 5 (05:48):
The question is is a cooling off necessarily amending offenses
between the world's richest man and arguably the world's most
powerful man. And on that note, we turned to Christan Nunu,
the former Republican governor of New Hampshire, who was ranting
a serial balance of power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Governor,
welcome back. It's always great to have you. You, of course,
are familiar with both of these characters that we are
(06:08):
talking about here. Are you surprised that there has been
a falling out between these two, or at the very
least surprised by the velocity of the break?
Speaker 7 (06:18):
No, I am, I actually am.
Speaker 8 (06:20):
I've worked with both of them, and I thought cooler
heads would prevail over the bill. I think Elon probably
He's Elon has never been great with understanding the value
of messaging and the timing, and he probably went a
bit too far, not just support, not just saying hey,
we need to push back on the big beautiful bill.
Speaker 7 (06:37):
But I think it was the you went to.
Speaker 8 (06:39):
One Pennsylvania without me comment that really probably come under
Trump's skin more than anything, and that escalated things.
Speaker 7 (06:47):
I do believe though, cooler heads will prevail.
Speaker 8 (06:50):
There'll be some reconciling, a private conversation here. Things will
quiet down. They'll get beyond the bill. They still want
the best for this country. They have, you know, on
a couple issues. They may different here and there, but
you know, things that are inflamed. I think the Democrats
are excited. There could be a breakup of the two bros.
So to say, But at the end of the day,
I think there'll be some Cold War peace found.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Well, Governor, it's good to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg.
We just heard from Elon Musk. He just posted while
you were talking on X very simply Bannon is a criminal.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
Yeah, we're going to get right to the point here.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I don't know if you've heard some of the remarks
that Steve Bannon has made about Elon Musk over the
course of this second term for Donald Trump. He weighed
in with Politico saying that he and Peter Navarro are
recommending executive orders to implement the Defense Production Act to
seize both SpaceX and Starlink take them under government control.
While Elon Musk is investigated for his immigration status, security clearance,
(07:47):
and drug use.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
What is Maga's hang up with Elon?
Speaker 8 (07:54):
Well, I don't think it's the Maga hang up or
even a Republican hang up. I think Bannon and a
few others have just never I understood the relationship that
that the President and Elon had. I think Bannon is
again he's giddy because finally the guy he never really
appreciated and wanted in the White House in the first
place is kind of getting his come up ins if
you will, with the President. So I think there's just
(08:15):
a select group of people that that are just like, okay,
you know, they're there. They there was never they didn't
have that relationship that that the President had. Remember, I
mean Trump and Elon would talk every day, multiple times
a day, every night. They have a very long, uh
and and firm relationship that is obviously under some severe
fire right now.
Speaker 7 (08:34):
But it's not built on a on a house of cards.
Speaker 8 (08:36):
I mean, it really is built on I think a
vision that that the two of them share. So ultimately,
you know, I don't think it'll ever go back to
the way it was. Don't get me wrong, but I
think cooler heads will prevail on both sides, especially Elon's,
but on both sides because you know, there's there's benefits
to that that each of them have to the other,
not just commercial and financial benefits, but political benefits and
and trying to get the country back on track. So
(08:58):
you know, I think this will be an interesting chapter
when someone writes the book on it all, to be sure,
but I don't think it's going to define the presidency
or crash the bill or be.
Speaker 7 (09:08):
It's more of a trivial thing. At this point, Well,
forget the book, go on.
Speaker 5 (09:13):
I'm waiting for the docu series or whatever is going
to show up on eve.
Speaker 6 (09:17):
If there's going to be a reunion of some tid
host I'm.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Watching them right for Bravo.
Speaker 7 (09:21):
I think we're waiting fair enough.
Speaker 6 (09:23):
We are living it certainly. Governor.
Speaker 5 (09:25):
We've spoken with you before on this program about how
you actually admired Elon Musk in the Department of Government
Efficiencies fundamental mission, which was to reduce the size of
the federal government get our fiscal house in order. So
in that vein, do you think Elon is fundamentally wrong
about his accusations around this bill being too big to
be beautiful at having too much of an impact on
the debt and deficit of the United States.
Speaker 7 (09:48):
He's right. Elon is right on this one.
Speaker 8 (09:51):
There's no question about that that the federal government has
to start making tough decisions. And I'm not And we
can put it in the Elon context. He was asked
to come in do things that no one else has
ever done in terms of exposing waste and fraud and
finding places to cut tens, if not hundreds of billions
of dollars. No one had done it, No one had
ever done it that fast and that strong. He did
it for the president. He sacrificed a lot for it.
(10:13):
And now he's like, wait, but I don't get anything
for this. I make all that sacrifice and you guys
aren't even gonna go through with it. Now there'll be
some recision bills, but already we all know those recision
bills are are are a very small piece of the
pie that the federal government really needs to take on.
So I completely get the frustration and the disappointment that
he has when it looks like that we're going to
(10:35):
the fiscal conservatives are adding to the debt, Like, what
are we doing here right, This is crazy.
Speaker 7 (10:41):
So it's and it's not just him.
Speaker 8 (10:42):
You see it from the more independent fiscal minds, whether
it's it's the Jamie Diamonds and you know, the hedge
fund managers and these guys that really watch this economy
deeply saying yes, they are hedging themselves into other currencies
right now.
Speaker 7 (10:57):
Not because they don't believe in America.
Speaker 8 (10:59):
But let's let's remember we don't no longer have a
triple bond rating, right, It's just good practice right now
from a financial standpoint to look at other currencies. We're
still going to be the reserve currency in the short term,
but there are threats to that. There's no question to that,
and nobody wants to see it. But it's all because
of the debt and inability. I believe there's a bit
of a political revolution coming where all this money that
(11:21):
goes to candidates is going to start to go back
to the states and issues where there's opportunities. I think
we've talked about it on your show before.
Speaker 7 (11:29):
I'm a believer.
Speaker 8 (11:29):
There's twenty seven states that have passed balanced budget amendment
resolutions for the federal government.
Speaker 7 (11:34):
You need five or six more.
Speaker 8 (11:35):
That's it, and then the states impose a balanced budget
amendment on the federal government. That's how the founding fathers
designed it. And we're right at the finish line there.
That's a great opportunity for an Elon Musk to come
in right and say, look, I'm going to fund that.
I'm not going to fund these conservative politicians anymore who
say one thing and don't do another. I'm going to
fund opportunities in the states to force the federal government
(11:57):
to get their act together fiscally. So there's just going
to be a different mindset given that this was the
golden opportunity. This is where America said, we know you
have to make tough decisions. It might be a bumpy road,
We're ready for it. And then they backed off. They
all chickened out. Yet Josh Holly Center Holly, he's supposed
to be a conservative, and he's telling people we can't
touch medicaid because it would be a political, political suicide.
(12:19):
We didn't elect you to go there and make decisions
based on politics. We elected you to go there and
make tough decisions because America has some really tough financial
times ahead of it and we're standing it.
Speaker 7 (12:30):
And what a great opportunity.
Speaker 8 (12:32):
For the first time in a long time, the public
is thinking about debt and deficit. They're willing to understand
that there could be some bumps in the or the
economy is strong.
Speaker 7 (12:39):
What better time to do it with a strong economy.
Speaker 8 (12:42):
And I know Trump wants the one percent cut right now,
I would I would tell the President don't waste it.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
You're going to need that in the fall.
Speaker 8 (12:49):
By the way, right you're going to see the jobless
number really skyrocket this fall. That's when all these federal
employees are going to really come on the rolls. I'd
love to know what Anna thinks about the timing of
all that as well.
Speaker 7 (12:59):
She's brilliant.
Speaker 8 (13:00):
But these a lot of these these jobless claims out
of the federal government will really accelerate this fall, and
that's when you're gonna want the cut, not to one percent,
but maybe a quarter a half percent. And I think
I think the feder Reserve chair knows that. So all
these are big pieces of the puzzle and Republicans should
be doing their job, and they're they're they're kind of
blowing it, you know, So I get I get Elon's frustration.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Here, Well, boy, We're gonna be playing back a bunch
of this tape in the fall.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Governor, we only have a minute left.
Speaker 7 (13:26):
You got me going.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
It sounds to me, it sounds to me like you
see Elon Musk as somebody who came to Washington and
saw too much to take it seriously. And maybe the
same dialogue you had with yourself when you had a
chance to run for Senate and you said, no way,
if you were in the Senate, you'd vote no on.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
This Yeah, I'd vote no on this bill. Yeah I could.
I couldn't get it.
Speaker 8 (13:47):
Look, if you're not appreciating that of all these smaller
issues we talk about, the debt and deficit are number
freaking one, and there's no two, three and four behind that.
Because the car crash is coming. It's not politics, it
is math, people, Right, Inflation is going to skyrocket when
we have to borrow, when social Security goes backrupt. So look,
everyone just needs to get their heads together, make some
(14:08):
tough decisions and put you know, America's financial future first.
Speaker 7 (14:11):
The world is counting on us to do the right thing.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Wow, thanks for not making us have to bleep you.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Chris Snunu, the former Republican Governor of New Hampshire, come
back and see us soon with Kaylee Lines.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn
on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (14:45):
I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew. Here in Washington, where
we all remaincaptivated by what is happening and or not
happening between President Trump and Elon muskause things do seem
to have quieted down in a big way today, in fact,
no vitriol being exchanged back and for on social media
or otherwise between the President and the world's richest man.
But yesterday was obviously quite a doozy, and it seemed
(15:07):
that the doom spiral really started when the President was
asked about the criticism Elon Musk was lobbying toward the
Big Beautiful Bill on social media when he was sitting
with the German Chancellor in the Oval Office.
Speaker 6 (15:19):
This is what the President said at the time.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
And if you saw the statements he made about me,
which I'm sure you can get very easily, it's very
fresh on tape.
Speaker 9 (15:27):
He said the most beautiful things about me.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
And he hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm
sure that'll be next.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
But I'm very disappointed in Eland.
Speaker 9 (15:34):
I've helped Elan a lot.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
He worked hard and he did a good job. And
I'll be honest, I think he misses the place.
Speaker 5 (15:41):
I think he got out there and all of a
sudden he wasn't in this beautiful oval office and he was,
and he's got nice offices too, But there's.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
Something about this.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
When I was telling the Chancellor, this is where it is.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Since then, President Trump says he wants to move on,
and reports earlier today of a phone call in the
offing between the White House and Elon muhe Us have
been disproven by Bloomberg. There is no phone call in
the works, according to people familiar with the matter, and
so we fester.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
Elon Musk is posting again. By the way, he took.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Quite a few hours off Twitter and is now tweeting
about Steve Bannon, calling him a criminal. Steve Bannon had
even worse things to say about Elon Musk. As we
assemble our political panel for their take on this, Here
we go again with Genie Shanzino, Bloomberg Politics contributor with
the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress.
Lisa Camuso Miller, Republican strategist, former RNC Comms director and
(16:34):
host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Lisa, I'm curious your
thoughts on this because Steve Bannon has been hating on
Elon Musk since long before he went into the White House.
Does President Trump move on and this becomes a Maga
versus Elon shouting match?
Speaker 10 (16:51):
I mean, you bet the President doesn't have time for
this kind of back and forth, and it really does
seem very petty. But you know, if you're Steve Bannon
and you're looking for someone to go after, I certainly
think that this is going to be one. And the
other thing, Joe, that we've seen over the course of
the last probably thirty minutes since I spoke to you
last was that it seems like the Democrats are making
(17:13):
some headway and some waves and you know, sort of
Olive branches into Elon Musk. So the Democrats are looking
at Elon Musk as someone that they could very well
connect with and look for opportunities there. So there's going
to be a lot of repositioning and a lot of
interesting things happen over the course of the next couple hours.
And it's interesting, and it certainly is not a fight
(17:36):
that is going to go away anytime soon, but it's
going to probably land at Steve Bannon and Elon Musk
and Donald Trump.
Speaker 11 (17:43):
The President will have other work to do and move
away from this.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
Well, that's pretty incredible to consider, Genie, not only that
the President and Elon Musk can go from friends to
front ofies or perhaps outright enemies, but that Elon Musk
could go from arguably Democrats to me number one aside
from President Trump, to being something of an ally, something
of an opportunity.
Speaker 9 (18:07):
I think that's gonna be very, very tough for Democrats.
You know, I'm here in New York and we are
looking at primaries in New York and New Jersey for
mayor and governor respectively. And I have to tell you,
almost every one of the Democrats running has commercials and
has made statements. A number of them running against not
(18:30):
just Donald Trump, but Elon Musk. So I'm not so
sure it's going to be easy for the Democrats to
go from making Elon Musk enemy number one and tied
intimately with Donald Trump to then embracing him as somebody
on their corner around their side. So I think that's
going to be tough in this election cycle. Long term,
(18:50):
maybe if it was an issue of funding, incredibly helpful
to the Democrats, but again, that's going to be a
hard switch. Likewise, it's a heart switch, which for the
GOP to be selling to us that Donald Trump is
this cutter in chief. He is the person who can
single handedly take the government and shape it up and
cut it and then turn around when he raises the
(19:13):
issue that the governor just mentioned to you about the
deficit and say, oh no, no, no, he's wrong about that.
So on both sides, this is very tricky messaging for
these parties.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
Lisa Elon Musk making the point last evening that Donald
Trump would not be the president if it were not
for the vast financial support and emotional support I guess
he gave not only the president but the Republican cause
on the campaign trail. The fact of the matter is,
though We saw his influence wane significantly as he tried
to get involved in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. We
(19:46):
covered that race together, where the conservative candidate lost. Musk
said to have egg on face and the Doge effort
forget the wall of receipts. He promised two trillion dollars
in cuts and came up with about nine billion, I
think was the number that we ended up with, at
least in terms of this recision package. Did Elon Musk
actually do anything to help Republicans in Washington?
Speaker 11 (20:08):
I mean, I think if your him, he probably have
buyer's remorse.
Speaker 10 (20:11):
He spent a ton of money and has affected almost
zero change. In fact, if anything, not only did he
invest in his time and his effort in making cuts
and trying to do all of the things that he did,
he also suffered a tremendous loss when it comes to Tesla.
So there's so much when you're Elon Musk, you're looking
at losses all across the board, and so any threat
(20:32):
that he has, really it comes up empty when you
look at it from a Republican point of view. So
the threat of money in these races, it doesn't seem
to make a change. Because Elon Musk makes the fight
all about himself, and that, I think is what turns
this into more of a tit for tat and nothing
really that will have any kind of political fallout other
(20:53):
than Elon Musk eventually maybe quietly walking away.
Speaker 5 (20:57):
Well, when you consider the money here, it is worth
pointing out that his net worth went down thirty four
billion dollars yesterday alone, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Still, though,
leaves him with three hundred and thirty four billion dollars
in wealth, So all things are relative, Genie when we
consider those virtually unlimited resources. To Lisa's point about perhaps
(21:18):
the money not being so much of a factor for Republicans,
do you really believe that even an incumbent Republican has
no reason to be concerned that Elon Musk could even
more quietly fund a harder to right, more fiscally conservative
primary challenger and put you in a tricky position in
the twenty twenty six season.
Speaker 9 (21:35):
He absolutely could. I mean, this is somebody who spent
what two hundred and fifty million dollars getting Donald Trump
elected and getting himself to lead Doge another fifteen to
twenty on House races. If he spends just this scentilla
of that that he could have a huge impact on
any of these individual races. And the other thing is,
(21:55):
first of all, I have to say, Elon Musk doesn't
do anything quietly. I think everybody is dreaming if they
think he can away quietly. But he's also got two
hundred and twenty million or so followers on Twitter, and
you can have a huge, huge impact that way as well.
Just yesterday he was telling his followers to call their
(22:16):
congressmen and women and their senators and tell them to
vote against the bill. As we all know, if you
are familiar with Congress, even just a few calls bombarding
an office can have a big impact. And he's got
two hundred and twenty million followers and eyes around the
world on him, so he has a big megaphone there.
And I think Donald Trump knows that, which is why
(22:38):
he'd like nothing more than to reshape this conversation on
the bill. Probably smooth things over with Elon Musk and
move ahead. And by the way, Kaylene, don't you think
Gwyneth Paltrow and Chris Martin should do some conscious uncoupling
helps Donald from But don't laugh up and get them,
get them moving forward. What happened to that? This is
(22:58):
more like Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt. It's not the
way it should be.
Speaker 5 (23:03):
You're the first person who has suggested this is like
Bradulina all over again.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
National inquirer Uh the other thing?
Speaker 11 (23:16):
Please, all of those all of those followers.
Speaker 10 (23:18):
Elon Musk has selected all of them because he owns Twitter,
so all of the followers, I'm not sure even all
of them want to be following him. I think he
made sure that everyone was following him when he bought
that platform in the first place.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Let's go to the other extremely, So, what are the
chances that these guys make up this weekend and they're
holding some news conference together on Monday? Tesla stock is
up and the Doge's back, Baby, I mean, that's entirely
never gonna happen, because you can't come back from the
Epstein thing.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
You can't. You say that and you're done right, take
the l.
Speaker 11 (23:52):
Out a lover and it's over. Joe.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
This is really the conversation we're having right now.
Speaker 5 (24:01):
But there is serious consequence here. As we were just
discussing the potential campaign finance implications, the funding for candidates, obviously,
the various national security implications, the implications for Elon Musk's business,
for all of that conversation, though, Genie, are we really
sitting here on this Friday thinking that Elon Musk, through
his social media tirades and falling out with the president,
(24:22):
has actually fundamentally changed the trajectory of this legislation on
Capitol Hill? Or for all of his stomping his feet,
is this thing still destined to pass anyway?
Speaker 9 (24:32):
I think in the end it likely still passes, But
we actually don't know the calls that I was just
talking about. That's a real risk for the Republicans. Then
the fact is we all talked about for so long.
They have a very narrow majority. It's not going to
take more than a few of them to say, you
know what, I'm not going to sign on to this
(24:53):
for this bill to go down. If I had to guess,
which is never a good idea, Kayley, But if I
had a guess, I'd say Trump pushes this through. His
presidency depends on this. He's got to get this through.
But the reality is once you get it through, Historically
on the back end, when we've seen this happen like
with Barack Obama, for instance, Obamacare, your party loses that
(25:16):
mid term and they lose big. So President is going
to have to sell this thing after it passes. And
the sales job so far has been a deplorable, deplorable
part of what the Republicans have tried to do. They're
going to have to do much better going forward. And
if they don't have Elon Musk on their side, that
is all that much more difficult to do. And you
(25:38):
just heard Governor soon who tell you the deficit is
it And so if Governor is saying that that, you
know there's other Republicans and moderates out there who feel
the same way.
Speaker 6 (25:50):
Lisa, we have thirty seconds left.
Speaker 5 (25:51):
Do you still think this bill ultimately gets through.
Speaker 11 (25:54):
The bill's going to get through, Kayley, It's going to pass.
Speaker 10 (25:56):
It's going to be a challenge, but it's going to
get done because I don't think any of our US senators,
Republicans or Democrats are going to want to be on
the side of Elon Musk over the President of the
United States.
Speaker 6 (26:06):
All Right, we'll leave it there.
Speaker 5 (26:07):
Lisa Camusa Miller and Jeanie Shanzano our political panel on
this Friday thank you so much for joining us. Of
course show, it's not just any Friday, it's also jobs Friday,
and we have to get back to the data.
Speaker 6 (26:18):
Coming up.
Speaker 3 (26:18):
Yeah, good conversation coming up.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
It's always about what's beneath the headlines that we're talking
about here on this program when it comes to economic data.
And Mark Hamrick's had a couple of hours to dig
through the report. He's the Washington Bureau Chief senior economic
analyst at Bank Rate and I'm glad to say he's
with us in studio today.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
Mark. It's great to see you. Good to be with you.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
So when's the recession? You know, I'm supposed to not No,
it's not today, But that was a conversation just a
couple of weeks ago. Remember, recession ods were rising, the
tariff program destroyed the economy.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
This is actually looking pretty good. What's your take?
Speaker 12 (27:10):
Well, backward looking right. So this is a snapshot from
around the twelfth of last month. I think recession odds
are probably still elevated relative to what is nominal, but
you know, down from the fifty percent odds that we
may have seen, you.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Know, early April.
Speaker 12 (27:31):
You know, at bank rate, much the same as with
your audience, we're always trying to take at bank rate,
we're always trying to take a bit of a long
term view. I know for traders, those who are trying
to get in and out of markets or positions, that's different.
The vast majority of Americans need to be thinking about
the long term and part of that means saving for emergencies,
(27:56):
for the inevitable rainy day. Right the rainy day isn't
here right now. But what's the number one complain about
the economy. It's price levels.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
What is likely to go up.
Speaker 12 (28:07):
In the current and intermediate terms, price levels. So there's
not going to be relief from that. And so if
you go out, you know, maybe not in front of
this office in downtown Washington, but a little beyond the belway,
ask people how do you feel about the economy. They're
not feeling too good about it, and so to them recession.
(28:28):
You can have your recession definitions and keep it. We'll
make our own judgments about how we're feeling about the economy.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Okay, fair enough. What are you seeing in the numbers here?
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Stronger than expected payrolls, steady unemployment rate is what the
headline is going to read. When you start looking at
wages and participation. What does that tell you about the
stage of the market.
Speaker 12 (28:45):
Well, first of all, I don't want to lean too
far forward on the better than expected. The consensus that
I was looking at was around one hundred and twenty
five thousand. We beat that by fourteen thousand. You know,
no one should be going out buying champagne.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Because of course, and by the way, that could be
revised in a month.
Speaker 12 (29:02):
As as that's perhaps the most important point, because this
was the fourth straight month of downward revisions, and the
sharpest downward revisions that we've had in that series minus
ninety five thousand the previous two months. That takes a
lot of the would be luster off of this beating.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Expectation understood well, when you consider the potential impact of
the DOGE and federal workforce cuts. A couple of months ago,
you were reading and hearing all the same stories I was.
It was going to crater the job market in certainly
areas like.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
Washington, DC.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
We still haven't seen the tens of thousands of job
losses on the government level, have we.
Speaker 3 (29:47):
They haven't showed up yet.
Speaker 12 (29:48):
Many of these people are still on severance, so they're
not claiming it's not showing up. And you know, the
good news for those affected people is that, you know
they would be looking for work at a time when
the unemployment rate is still regarded as historically low at
four point two percent. But let's wait till September October
(30:12):
and see what the jobless claims and that component look like.
As you know, Challenger Gray and Christmas earlier in the
week talked about accelerating job cut announcements in sectors where
we hadn't been seeing those occupying the top two positions,
that with services and retailing, and hundreds of thousands of
(30:32):
DOGE related job cut announcements elsewhere. So I think, you know,
I'm not here to preach gloom and doom. I'm here
to preach caution sure, and to look past the immediate
headline numbers and try to think about a variety of
scenarios that could be developing here in the second half
of the year, which is weeks away.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
Well, this is why we're asking these questions, Mark Hamrick.
We heard from President Trump this morning a number of times,
and I'm going to ask if his take on J.
Powell in a moment. But his first reaction was, America
is hot. This is all caps. Six months ago was
cold as ice, border is closed. Prices are down, wages
are up. Our own Michael McKee took a harder look
(31:16):
at that and went back six months and found that
none of that is actually factual. Prices are not down
from six months ago. Wages are not up from six
months ago. He's calling at the same time for a
full point cut from J.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Powell. It's not going to get that, is he.
Speaker 12 (31:35):
Well, first of all, you know, how does he come
to that conclusion or recommendation when on the one hand,
he's talking about a robust economy.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
Yeah, we're hot, but we need to cut.
Speaker 12 (31:46):
And when do you cut by one hundred basis points.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
In a crisis? Yes? Exactly. Can you imagine? Okay, let's
talk about that.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
Imagine if the FED announced today between meetings it was
cutting by a full percentage point, what would happen on
the market.
Speaker 12 (31:59):
I mean you'd have lights spinning in here, and it'd
be breaking news all day long.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
Been a long time since we've had a surprise. We
don't need to what's j Powell.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
Looking at though, when he sees data like this and
you're looking ahead urging caution six months from now, reminding
us of a dual mandate.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
They're concerned about this job market too.
Speaker 12 (32:16):
Well, First of all, you know, as you know, the
expectation right now is we don't have any rate cuts,
probably for at least the next two meetings, which is
June eighteenth and then July, and then we get into
mid September. I think that they'll continue to say that,
and we're what a week and a half away from
the next announcement of news conference, I think they'll continue
(32:36):
to say the monetary policy is in a good place. Obviously,
that's why they're not moving it, and they want to
be responsive to the way the economy unfolds in the
months ahead. You know, he regards himself and they have
a take with the law that they are effectively bulletproof
from the president's rhetoric, and so if anything, he wants
(33:02):
to maintain the credibility not only of the institution that
he and his colleague serve, but also the roughly year
that he has left as chair, he wants to maintain
the credibility of all that. So the last thing in
the world that he's going to do is get into
an Elon must style you know, yeah, retort.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
I wasn't going to bring.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
Up a lot Well, you know that's another show, right, Well, no,
we're going to do that as soon as we change
the topic. But look, you're right, a week from Wednesday, correct,
we've got the next eighteen FED meeting. You haven't said
the word tariff yet. He's going to have to manage that.
And the fact is nothing's really changed on that front
since the last FED meeting. He's waiting for what July
ninth to find out what the heck is going on.
Speaker 12 (33:44):
Well, you know, I think in the environment we're in,
the tariffs are what we're going to be dealing with
for the foreseeable future. If there's one tool in the
President's toolbox that is on the top aside from music,
social media, it's tariffs. And we could try to, you know,
(34:04):
Monday morning quarterback. All we want on where they end up,
where they're going, where they'll be Monday but I think
a baseline is you have to assume they're going to
be with us for the foreseeable future in some form.
And let's think about the fact that we know that
you know, tariffs are a tax on imports. It has
to be paid by businesses and consumers or some combination thereof.
(34:28):
And they are going to be with us for the foreseeable.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Two point eight trillion dollars the CBO says they'll raise
in the next ten years.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
What's the sustainability, Well, they've already changed.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
But it's fascinating that we're trying to get a tax
cut done. Well, we're also essentially taxing Americans two point
eight trillion to pay for it. I'll get a lot
of bad mail there, but maybe you can explain it
to me.
Speaker 7 (34:50):
Mark.
Speaker 3 (34:50):
It's great to have you.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
Happy job today, the great Mark Hamrick at bank Rate
and a great conversation for you here. Thanks for listening
to the Balance of Power pot Make sure to subscribe
if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you
get your podcasts, and you can find us live every
weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.
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