July 15, 2025 • 33 mins
Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. plan to resume sales of some AI chips in China after securing Washington’s assurances that such shipments would get approved, a dramatic reversal from the Trump administration’s earlier stance on measures designed to limit Beijing’s AI ambitions.
US government officials told Nvidia they would green-light export licenses for its H20 artificial intelligence accelerator, the company said in a blog post on Monday — a move that may add billions to Nvidia’s revenue this year, restoring its ability to fulfill orders it had written off as lost due to government restrictions. Nvidia designed the less-advanced H20 chip to comply with earlier China trade curbs from Washington, which Trump’s team tightened in April to block H20 sales to the Asian country without a US permit.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:
- Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Tyler Kendall.
- Bloomberg Senior Editor for Technology and Strategic Industries Michael Shepard.
- Ashton Analytics Founder and Former China Analyst at the Department of Defense Anna Ashton.
- Bloomberg Politics Contributor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Bluestack Strategies Founder Maura Gillespie.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
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(00:20):
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Speaker 2 (00:25):
This is a fascinating trade that we're watching. The broad
market not so good today, but Nvidia is on fire.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
AMD is having a big day. This is a big day.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
For artificial intelligence and the companies that we talk about
in this whole ecosystem. It's all coming together with an
event that's being thrown together and endorsed by the White
House here with a lot of other officials, both government
officials and corporate officials, and we're going to bring you
there live in just a moment. Thanks for being here
on the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg
Radio Satellite radio channel one twenty one. We're live on
(00:55):
Bloomberg Originals. If you'd like to see what's happening, go
to YouTube as well search Bloomberg Business News Live. As
we bring you our live stream here from the nation's
capital throughout the day, the President in Pittsburgh here along
with a series of notables. Senator David McCormick is part
of this. You keep hearing the number seventy billion dollars.
This is a collection of investments coming from the private
(01:18):
sector here, Blackstone, Core Weave, and it's not just to
open data centers, it's about getting the power, the energy
to drive them. And that's where we start our conversation
this hour. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall has already made her way
to Pittsburgh and is now at the Big Pennsylvania Energy
Summit with us right now as we look toward the
(01:38):
future of artificial intelligence.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Tyler, what's happening on the ground.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
Yeah, hey, Joe, Well, we're waiting for President Trump to
take the stage later on this afternoon, and as you
mentioned there, he's expected to announce billions when it comes
to investments in artificial intelligence, but also the energy infrastructure
and actually the energy power that's needed in order to
fuel it. And it's sort of difficult to pinpoint how
much energy artificial intelligence actually uses because there's a bunch
(02:07):
of different metrics that goes into it. But one thing
is for sure. Demand is surging and it's only expected
to go up from here. A recent analysis from Goldman
Sachs estimates that data center energy consumption is going to
go up one hundred and sixty percent by twenty thirty five.
That then leaves us with questions on how is the
US going to meet that demand? And I actually sat
(02:28):
down earlier with the US Energy Secretary, Christopher Wright, who
told it's going to be difficult, but that the administration
is trying to prioritize this idea that their deregulation agenda
is ultimately going to help spur more production. I will
say an interesting sort of counter to this is that
while the administration is of course very focused on this
idea of drilling, drill, baby, drill, we hear a lot
(02:48):
from them. I spoke to the American Petroleum Institute. Yes
they do represent the oil industry, but they actually told
me that this might need to be a whole approach,
a holistic approach, and include other energy sources like wind
and solar, for example, because because the need that the
consumption is just really going up from here.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Joe, that says.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
A lot Tyler, who when the API is talking wind
in solar, Tyler, we'll get back to you a little
bit as we stand by for the president's arrival at
the Pennsylvania Innovation and Energy Summit.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
We've got our eyes.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
As I mentioned on in Vidia, it's not just because
of this summit that's going on. There's big news today
that's been driving the stock price here sharply higher, AMD
as well in video right now up over four percent
or seven dollars to a new all time high. We're
in the one hundred seventy one dollars zone here for
in Nvidia, and it's not an accident. As you've been
(03:42):
hearing on Bloomberg, in Vidia and AMD, its rival have
been clear to resume some AI chip sales to China
in a very important reversal here. Remembering we told you
with the help of Mike Sheppard that Jensen Wong was
at the White House last week, we might have a
better idea now of what they were talking about. A
couple things I want to mention before we bring in
(04:03):
shep Howard Lutnik on the other network right now saying
that we're selling China our fourth best chip. These are
not the Blackwells, right, These are the age twenties that
you've heard about that in Vidio will now be able
to start selling to China again, Lutnx saying we stay
one step ahead of China, so they continue to buy
the chips, presumably that we want.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Them to buy.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Scott Besson also weighing in on talks trade talks with China.
He was live on Bloomberg TV and radio earlier today.
Here's what he said on Bloomberg Surveillance.
Speaker 5 (04:35):
You might say that that was a negotiating chip that
we used in Geneva and in London. It was all
part of a mosaic. They had things we wanted, we
have things they wanted, and we're in a very good place.
I expect to meet my Chinese counterpart, the Vice Premiere,
(04:55):
in the next few weeks.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Time to start stacking the chip. It sounds like Michael
Shepherd has been all over this story for US live
in Washington, Bloomberg Senior editor for Technology and Strategic Industries.
It's great to see you. My congratulations on all this coverage.
You're the one who's been scooping this for us. With
a remarkable turn in this administration. What did Jensen Wong
say to Donald Trump last week?
Speaker 6 (05:17):
Well, we don't know. This was a conversation that took
place in private between the two men who clearly, since
the starting the administration have built something of a rapport.
Joe It's funny and Trump's public remarks where Jensen Wong
has been present at an event or has been Trump
has been asked about Nvidia and things like chips restrictions.
(05:40):
He has singled out the CEO for lavish praise and
really jumped onto the Nvidia bandwagon as a signal of
what he sees as an American success story in Saudi Arabia.
He did a sort of a roll call of who
was present, and he was looking for Jensen Wang in
the audience and found him. Where's Jensen, Where's my friend Jensen?
And he went on to praise some of the spending
(06:02):
plans that in Nvidia has to make five hundred billion
dollars worth of its chips at these new TSMC plants
that are being built in Arizona right now. So Jensen
Wang is getting on the right side of Trump's attempt
to reindustrialize the country.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
That part of the story, But the other.
Speaker 6 (06:21):
Part is Trump may have been more receptive as a
result to Jensen Wong's other message, which is that, look,
we need to be able to export these chips to markets,
including China, because if we see the China market, it
is the largest or semiconductors in the world. Mind you,
if we see that market, then Huawei will have free
reign there, and then Huawei will be able to develop
(06:43):
enough critical mass to be able to start selling some
of those chips that compete with the videos to other
markets abroad, in the Middle East and Latin America and
in Africa. Jensen Wong very much wants and he's articulated
this repeatedly, including the US officials, that he wants to
see AI developed globally on what he calls an American
text test.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Right, And I've heard you say that before, but I've
never heard the argument quite the way that you just
articulated it. It's not just that you know, what's good
for America is good for the world. This is about
an emboldened China strength in Huawei that would have influence
beyond our borders. So if they're buying in Vidio, you
keep Wawei in check.
Speaker 6 (07:21):
That is at least the theory as spelled out by
Jensen Wong. Now there are a lot of China hawks
here in Washington. We've talked about for years, Joe, who
have great concerns about this approach. They see that letting
China and Chinese companies gain access to advanced technology like
in videos, it poses a national security risk. And they
(07:41):
see a great nexus between China's industrial complex and its
military complex. And the fear is that these AI chips
have a dual use potential, that they could be used
for surveillance for military purposes, and they see that as
a risk, and they had applauded the previous ban on
these Age twenty chips. Now, remember the H twenty chip
had been tailored specifically by Nvidia for the Chinese markets
(08:06):
to meet previous restrictions that the Biden administration had imposed.
But the administration, prior administration and the new administration, the
Trump administration had grown concerned that maybe those restrictions weren't
tough enough and that China might be able to do
something to either make gains in AI commercially or militarily.
Hence the move in February by Trump to crack down
(08:29):
on H twenty sales in China. But now we're seeing
a reversal. And Howard Lutna kind of pointed to this.
He was making the argument that look, those H twenty
chips are really kind of second or third tier. And
we even heard David Sachs in an interview on a
B Tech just in the past hour with our own
at Ludlow make essentially that same case, Joe.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
In our remaining moment here we're talking about Jensen Wogen
in video. This is a big deal for AMD as
well be able to sell its M three to eight.
If I'm saying it right now, ship does Lisa Sue
have Jensen want to thank her big competitor, Well.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Very much.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
I mean Lisa Sue of course has been trying to
make her own case in inroads with the administration on
this policy front. But really the name that garners all
the headlines and the chips that everybody around the world
wants for AI, it's in video.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
They're one of these Age twenty assemblies. They're pretty heavy.
Speaker 6 (09:23):
It's seventy pounds.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
Seventy pounds. Good workout, Joe. I bet that's true.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
It just makes you realize how difficult it is to
move these things to go to the gym. Well, I
bet that's right. With Mike Shepherd breaking news here today
on Bloomberg, as we watch shares of Nvidia leap higher,
now one hundred and seventy one dollars, up over four percent.
We'll keep tabs on this for you. With another check
on the markets coming up.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Right here on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance
of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and
five pm e stern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto
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Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
We want to talk about all of this with Anna Ashton,
the founder of Ashton Analytics, a specialist in US China trade,
which is why we bring her on so often, former
China analyst with the Department of Defense, and it's great
to have you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
I'm wondering your thoughts on this about face when it
comes to chips from Nvidia and AMD. Is this in
(10:27):
the best national security interest of America?
Speaker 7 (10:32):
Well, you know, I think it's important to note that
not only are these not the only things that the
Trump administration has recently rolled back in terms of export restrictions,
but all of the things that they've rolled back so
far are things that they themselves imposed this spring, either
in April or in May. So when Treasury Secretary Bassett
(10:55):
indicates that these were, you know, chips that were part
of the London negotiations, I take that at base value.
They imposed more restrictions on experts of certain goods that
they believed to be strategic for China in order to
have bargaining power to try to get China to speed
(11:18):
up its exports of bearers.
Speaker 8 (11:22):
Well, so, when you talk about the walk backs we've
seen from this administration on various fronts when it comes
to China, how much of a dovish urn would you
characterize it as? Anna If it is indeed a dubbish turn,
how upset do you think China hawks and then around
the administration and elsewhere are about these moves.
Speaker 7 (11:41):
Well, look, I definitely think that China hawks are going
to be upset, regardless of whether the rollbacks are of
restrictions that were imposed recently by the Trump administration or
of previously imposed restrictions, because from a China Hawk perspective,
none of this technology should be going to China at all.
(12:06):
But I also think that in terms of trying to
measure whether or not this is a dubvish term by
the Trump administration. We still have to wait and see,
because at the end of the day, this will only
be a truly substantive change in US policy towards China
when it comes to export controls and access to critical
US technologies. If we see a rollback in Biden era
(12:29):
export controls, I certainly think that that is something that
China wants, and it may be it's possible China will
get something like that because we know that rare exports
have you know, the licensing approvals have picked up, and
there's some evidence to indicate that shipments are are beginning
to flow more smoothly. But certainly there's no approval of
(12:55):
anything to go to military end users.
Speaker 9 (12:58):
For example.
Speaker 7 (12:59):
They could always be faster than they already are, and
they're not as fast as they were prior to these
restrictions on exports of Chinese rearers and magnets being imposed.
So we'll have to see whether or not the Trump
administration is willing to give ground on any Biden era policies.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Well, do you worry more about the next deep seek
emerging or do you go back to your role at
the Department of Defense and worry about what China might
do with this technology when it comes to building weapons.
Speaker 7 (13:31):
I think that whether or not China gets this technology.
Speaker 9 (13:34):
From the US, and I think that this is.
Speaker 7 (13:36):
This buys China time to continue developing indigenous technologies without
losing the ability to apply these technologies in various ways
that are important for them in the near term. But
China has been throwing enormous amounts of money towards indigenous
(13:57):
development of its own technologies so that it won't have
to rely on the United States anymore.
Speaker 9 (14:02):
It's been doing that for.
Speaker 7 (14:03):
A number of years now, and it's been doubling and
tripling down on that. I think it's only a matter
of time before China doesn't need US technologies in order
to accomplish the various ends that it's trying to accomplish.
Speaker 9 (14:18):
And so that's happening regardless.
Speaker 8 (14:23):
Well, speaking of matters of time, Anna, we just heard
from the Treasury Secretary moments ago suggesting that August twelfth
should not be viewed by market participants as a deadline
they should be worried about. Does that suggest to you
that there is a lack of forward progress in reaching
more of a trade agreement between the US and China.
Should we consider any of these deadlines to be real
(14:45):
at this point.
Speaker 9 (14:48):
Super fair question.
Speaker 7 (14:49):
It does suggest to me that they have yet to
make it past serious discussion, make it too serious discussion
of things beyond rare earth.
Speaker 9 (14:59):
I feel like rare earth has been the.
Speaker 7 (15:01):
Hair on fire crisis for the Trump administration, particularly because
of the heavy rare earth magnets that are so important
not only to electric vehicles but also to traditional combustion
engine vehicles and to so many electronics. And I think
that you know that that will continue to be something
(15:22):
that China can use as leverage to get the US
to the table, and until that is satisfactorily resolved in
the US mind, it will be hard to move forward
on negotiation of other issues.
Speaker 10 (15:38):
Uh.
Speaker 9 (15:38):
I think it is worth noting that.
Speaker 7 (15:41):
A couple of key heavy rare earths that are used
in these magnets that have been in short supply, like
dysprosium for example, and neodemium. Uh, those also are not
They're primarily sourced from Me and mar and the state
in Me and that they're primarily sourced from has been
(16:01):
incredibly unstable due to domestic conflict for the past six
six to eight months, and China itself is having a
hard time getting these things. So it's just worth keeping
in mind that China is not necessarily simply using these
rare earth export licensing restrictions to.
Speaker 9 (16:25):
Gain leverage visa v. The US.
Speaker 7 (16:27):
It is also thinking about its own supply security.
Speaker 9 (16:32):
And that may that may lean how much it can negotiate.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Do you want to see President Trump President She in
the same room. Do you want to see a summit?
And is that in fact where the President might be
most likely to give up the ghost on this and
lower export controls to your point from the Biden administration.
Speaker 7 (16:51):
From from a from the perspective of somebody who would
like to see a more functional and healthy US China relationship, Yeah,
that sounds like a really nice thing when I'm thinking
about it in terms of.
Speaker 9 (17:09):
Strict US interests.
Speaker 7 (17:10):
There are things that could certainly be gained there if
I put on my China Hawk hat and look at
it through the lens of security concerns. These are really
difficult trade offs, and a meeting that caused President Trump
to relax export controls, you know, bigger and more fundamental
(17:32):
export controls on advanced technologies to China might not be
in the US interest.
Speaker 9 (17:40):
Anna.
Speaker 8 (17:41):
We learned from President Trump yesterday that if no ceasefire
agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine within fifty days,
that he will look to impose one hundred percent what
he described as secondary tariffs on countries that help Russia,
including big buyers of Russian oil read China. Do you
expect Beijing would respond if indeed something like that were implemented.
(18:04):
Would would their behavior be, Okay, well, we're going to
stop buying cheap Russian crude and exports, or we're going
to potentially retaliate against the US with tariffs and kind.
Speaker 7 (18:15):
China certainly can't stop buying Russian crude or gas, and
that's because it gets an even bigger percentage from Russia
than it did before the Ukraine War started.
Speaker 9 (18:27):
And you know, it's pretty it's pretty heavily rely ont
on Russia.
Speaker 7 (18:30):
Russia it's one of its main suppliers. So that's that's
not in the cards. What is potentially in the cards
is use of smaller companies instead of their main oil
and gas companies, which which is already to a large
extent the case to move that oil and gas and
(18:51):
therefore sort of shield China's broader economy for many secondary
sanctions that are imposed. If if the secondary sanctions don't
hit the big banks that are you know, if the
big banks aren't processing these transactions, then you know, China
can kind of prevent calamity from ensuing as a result
(19:14):
of the sanctions. And we've seen them kind of we've
seen them do that with their purchases from Iran as well.
That's what I would expect that to be their first move.
Speaker 8 (19:25):
Well, so Anna, if I read you correctly, if China's
not going to be able to actually adjust its purchases
of Russian oil, would that mean that these these secondary sanctions, tariffs,
whatever you want to call them, would not have the
intended effect the president wants here, which is to put
the squeeze on the Russian economy and stop them from
being able to fund their war machine.
Speaker 7 (19:45):
I don't think that they would have the intended effect
because I think that I mean, you know, other countries
that are buying from Russia might not have the same
safeguards in place to protect them from secondary sanctions, but
China certainly has safeguards in place, and China.
Speaker 9 (20:05):
Is the biggest fire. So yeah, I mean, I think.
Speaker 7 (20:10):
That we've been learning the hard way for a few
years now that there are limits to the power of
US sanctions and they don't always achieve what we hope
that they will achieve. And I don't think that secondary
sanctions on all sales of Russian oil are necessarily going
to achieve what Trump wants.
Speaker 8 (20:33):
All right, Anna, we appreciate you joining us as always.
Anna Ashton's founder of Ashton Analytics.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
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live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
China looming large today in testimony on Capitol Hill. Michael Waltz, Yes,
that Michael Waltz on Capitol Hill today, the President's former
National security advisor who I won't say was fired but
removed from that job, and it all followed the whole
signal scandal that you might remember. Michael Waltz is now
(21:19):
the President's nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations and
That is the reason why he was on Capitol Hill
today a confirmation hearing to be the US Ambassador to
the UN. But everybody said when this was announced that
how could he survive such a blistering hearing the likes
of Chris Coons, Tim Kaine and other Democrats. We're going
(21:42):
to speak truth to power here delve into the signal
scandal that of course included revealing military attack plans, air strikes,
the timing and method of the air strikes that would
be used against houthy rebels. It was Mike Waltz that
added a journalist from the Atlantic to that signal chat
that also included the Secretary of Defense and the Vice
(22:04):
President of the United States. I don't have to replay
this whole thing to you. This has been a coiled
spring for some time. We thought there'd be fireworks popping
off in the hearing. The aforementioned Chris Coons, Democrat from Delaware,
did tangle with Michael Waltz on this Let's listen.
Speaker 11 (22:21):
You were sharing details about an upcoming airstrike and the
time of launch and the potential targets. I mean, this
was demonstrably sensitive information and the question I asked was
where you investigated for this expansion of the signal group
to include a journalist.
Speaker 12 (22:41):
The White House conducted an investigation, and my understanding is
the Department of Defense is still conducting an investigation.
Speaker 11 (22:48):
Was any disciplinary action taken.
Speaker 12 (22:53):
From the White House Investigation Center? Yes, No, the use
of signal was not only not authorized, is still authorized
and highly recommended.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Not only authorized, but highly recommended. That was kind of it.
Tim Kaine had one question for him. Democrats seem to
have given up the ghosts on this whole scandal, and
maybe he will, in fact be the next US ambassador
to the UN. We assemble our political panel for their
take on this and a lot more. Genie Schanzano is
(23:26):
with US Bloomberg Politics contributor, Senior Democracy Fellow with the
Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. And
mor Gillespie is back, a Republican strategist, founder Blue Stack Strategies,
a veteran of John Bayner's Speaker's office in the House
of Representatives. Great to see you both, Welcome back. Of course, Jeanie,
did Democrats forget what a big deal this was a
(23:46):
couple of months ago. What happened today?
Speaker 13 (23:49):
Yeah, it was about an hour in before we even
got those questions about signal Gate that we just heard
from Chris Coons. They were focused on other issues that
are critically important. Most importantly, of course, our relationship with China,
so that that is critically important. They talked about Israel,
but they did wait a long time. And not only
(24:11):
were there only a few questions about Signalgate, but interestingly,
Senator Corey Booker didn't even ask any questions. He just
expressed his deep disappointment, he's not going to support Waltz,
and that was it. So I think we expected a
little bit more of them to take up the opportunity
to make some points for those all important campaign commercials
(24:33):
in twenty six. They didn't use this opportunity that way.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
So what's the lesson here? More time heals all scandals.
Because this was an outrage. It was the biggest story
in the world when this broke. The screen grabs of
that signal chat had us talking for weeks, and today
this is what we got.
Speaker 10 (24:53):
I am a little surprised at the lack of questioning around.
You know, did Mike Waltz know where Steve Woodkoff was
on that message change? Sure, of course, obviously the big
question about the adding a reporter to a chain, But
I had concerns about the fact that Steve wik Koff
was in Russia and these conversations were happening, and so
that was one of my concerns, and I'm surprised that
wasn't necessarily brought up. But I think what the takeaway
(25:16):
here is that Mike Waltz isn't the target. You know,
Pete Haig sets was the one that was putting out
the line by line war plans, and Pete Haig Seth
seems to be the target I think for Democrats that
they wanted to have, you know, advertisements against a Trump
administration official in the future, that's going to be somebody
who they could actually galvanize their base and their voters
(25:38):
to be realized as a threat. Mike Waltz is a
decorated war veteran, he has had administration experience, so I
don't think that he's necessarily the person that they need
to be going after in that regards.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Well, you know, look, it's interesting here if China is
in fact the main topic for Democrats, Genie, that is
what they spent the most time on. Do Democrats trust
Mike Walls in this position to counter China. He talked
about going up against China as absolutely critical. China pushes
its personnel into roles at all levels, including bodies that
(26:11):
set international standards. He says, it's absurd that China continues
to be treated as a developing nation.
Speaker 3 (26:18):
These are ideas that democrats agree with.
Speaker 2 (26:20):
Correct they are.
Speaker 13 (26:23):
And you know, when I was listening to the testimony,
I was thinking back to you're really a good conversation
yesterday with Senator Jean Shaheen, and she made a point
then and she made it again today during the hearing,
which is that the administration's approach to China, despite all
the rhetoric, is incoherent. And she points to several things,
(26:46):
but one thing of the moment is that while this
hearing is going on, we are on the verge of
a vote on the Recisions Package, which would destroy USAID.
And what China is doing so well right now, which
is something United States used to do, which is the
exercise of soft power and diplomatic application of pressure and
(27:08):
not terrifying our friends and allies. And so, Senator Shaheen,
both to you and Kaylee yesterday and importantly in the
hearing today made this point, and you know, Mike Waltz
had very little to come back with on any of
those points or the minority report released, which is the
fact that the administration's approach to China is scattered. And
(27:30):
that's my word, not Senator Shaheen's. It is scattered, and
we're running in several directions at the same time. And
I think that was reiterated more strongly today by Mike
Waltz's inability to respond to her than anything else I've
heard recently.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
That's really interesting, moro, when you consider the cuts that
have come to USAID that are included in this recisions package,
the ability for America to wage the information war to
try to influence people outside of our borders.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Does Genie have a point on this?
Speaker 10 (28:01):
Absolutely? And I do think that Mike Waltz is in
a precarious position because he does obviously feel as though
he's kind of on the chopping box still with the
Trump administration after the Signal Gate fallout, So how forward
he'd be about his position on the role of USAID.
And truthfully, I think for many Americans and those in
leadership and those who have had an administration experience, they
(28:23):
recognize that our usaid and you know, foreign aid is
a diplomacy tool, and they could, you know, put that
under the umbrella of the Secretary of State and use
it as a diplomacy tool because it is. It helps us,
like Janine said, like self power, right. But what Mike
Waltz has to do, he has a delicate dance to
do here because he doesn't want to go out publicly
(28:43):
and speak out saying something that's maybe contractary what the
trendministration wants to say. But he knows the important role
in America players in the world, and so I do
have confidence that he knows that. How much he can
do currently, but it's hard to say, but for these
next few years he could do. I have more confidence
than that.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
Well, Genie, I wonder if some of the Democrats in
that hearing room today should have listened to Barack Obama
or maybe they were listening his comments at this fundraiser
the other night, pretty remarkable. This was a fundraiser, a
closed door fundraiser as these things go, that was put
together at the home of Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey,
(29:23):
a d NC fundraiser where the President said it's going
to require the former president a little less naval gazing
and a little less whining and being in the fetal position.
He's telling Democrats to toughen up, Genie. And he went
on to say that when he was president, progressives liberals
stood for all kinds of stuff. Who seem like they're
(29:44):
kind of now cowed and intimidated and shrinking away from
just asserting what they believe. Is that what we witnessed
today in the hearing.
Speaker 13 (29:52):
You know, I don't think so I understand what the
former president is trying to do. He was particularly tough
in those comments on elite institutions, those outside of traditional
power in Congress, running the elite law firms and the
elite universities and others. He didn't mention some by name,
but clearly that was on his mind in terms of
(30:13):
their stepping back, accepting assuaging DONALDS. Trump's attacks on them.
The media as well, he was less I think tough
on some of those in elected office. So I'm not
sure he was their primary target, but he is trying
to energize the base. And the timing here is very
interesting because we have an election today which is going
(30:35):
to tell us a lot for a House seat of
a member who passed away.
Speaker 9 (30:40):
We have it in.
Speaker 13 (30:41):
It's going to be in Arizona's seventh district, and you've
got to split there amongst progressives. And what's so interesting
about this is you've got some of the progressives like
Bernie Sanders on one side, and you've got some of
the other ones on the other side, who are of
the younger I would say, David Hoggiety, who have made
their case for a more robust pushing back. And I
(31:05):
think for people in Congress, those are the kind of
debates we're seeing, Not to mention my very own New
York City where we have a very progressive Mamdani versus
a still representative Adams and former Governor Pomo. So Democrats
are trying to iron this out at this point.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
I'm glad you mentioned that special primary today in Arizona.
It is something that we're going to be watching genius
Democrats choose their nominee to succeed Ralu Grahalva. There's also
new polling out today more from the Fbizio group here
Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward. That is not good news
for Republicans. On the midterm campaign trail, Republicans trailing on
(31:44):
the generic ballot. Here in a survey of twenty eight
battleground House seats, including fifteen were Republicans won in twenty
twenty four by five points or less, and thirteen won
by both the Democratic House candidate and Trump. Among those
most motivated to vote, an early indication of vote likelihood
in the midterms, the Republican is down seven points. How
(32:06):
do you turn that around between now and the midterms.
Speaker 10 (32:09):
More Well, it's interesting because Republicans will have to decide
what benefits they get from staying in line and supporting
Trump's message if he can galvanize his voters to come out.
There's a big fracture right now amongst his own base.
And so how much do they play up their allegiance
to Donald Trump or how much do they focus more
(32:30):
on the district themselves, the constituents. We know that midterms
typically produce a lower turnout. It's not necessarily news that's
pretty unfortunately the standard. People just don't turn out from
midterms that they do in a general election and when
there's a presidential But that being said, these members do
need Given the fact that the House is such as
the majority, it has been projected that Democrats will take
(32:50):
the gabble but within one big beautiful bill that messaging
Democrats are probably ripe to go ahead and campaign on
that because of his low approval rates. But again, I
think a big question for Republicans running for reelection is
to decide do I stick with Trump and tout my allegiance,
or do I focus more on the people who I represent,
who I'm so hosted to be serving here and talk
(33:12):
about the issues that matter most to them, and less
focus on a president who's the blame.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Duck Mora Gillespie and Jeanie Shanzano. Thanks for listening to
the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
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your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday
from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the
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with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
(00:20):
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
This is a fascinating trade that we're watching. The broad
market not so good today, but Nvidia is on fire.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
AMD is having a big day. This is a big day.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
For artificial intelligence and the companies that we talk about
in this whole ecosystem. It's all coming together with an
event that's being thrown together and endorsed by the White
House here with a lot of other officials, both government
officials and corporate officials, and we're going to bring you
there live in just a moment. Thanks for being here
on the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg
Radio Satellite radio channel one twenty one. We're live on
(00:55):
Bloomberg Originals. If you'd like to see what's happening, go
to YouTube as well search Bloomberg Business News Live. As
we bring you our live stream here from the nation's
capital throughout the day, the President in Pittsburgh here along
with a series of notables. Senator David McCormick is part
of this. You keep hearing the number seventy billion dollars.
This is a collection of investments coming from the private
(01:18):
sector here, Blackstone, Core Weave, and it's not just to
open data centers, it's about getting the power, the energy
to drive them. And that's where we start our conversation
this hour. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall has already made her way
to Pittsburgh and is now at the Big Pennsylvania Energy
Summit with us right now as we look toward the
(01:38):
future of artificial intelligence.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Tyler, what's happening on the ground.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
Yeah, hey, Joe, Well, we're waiting for President Trump to
take the stage later on this afternoon, and as you
mentioned there, he's expected to announce billions when it comes
to investments in artificial intelligence, but also the energy infrastructure
and actually the energy power that's needed in order to
fuel it. And it's sort of difficult to pinpoint how
much energy artificial intelligence actually uses because there's a bunch
(02:07):
of different metrics that goes into it. But one thing
is for sure. Demand is surging and it's only expected
to go up from here. A recent analysis from Goldman
Sachs estimates that data center energy consumption is going to
go up one hundred and sixty percent by twenty thirty five.
That then leaves us with questions on how is the
US going to meet that demand? And I actually sat
(02:28):
down earlier with the US Energy Secretary, Christopher Wright, who
told it's going to be difficult, but that the administration
is trying to prioritize this idea that their deregulation agenda
is ultimately going to help spur more production. I will
say an interesting sort of counter to this is that
while the administration is of course very focused on this
idea of drilling, drill, baby, drill, we hear a lot
(02:48):
from them. I spoke to the American Petroleum Institute. Yes
they do represent the oil industry, but they actually told
me that this might need to be a whole approach,
a holistic approach, and include other energy sources like wind
and solar, for example, because because the need that the
consumption is just really going up from here.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Joe, that says.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
A lot Tyler, who when the API is talking wind
in solar, Tyler, we'll get back to you a little
bit as we stand by for the president's arrival at
the Pennsylvania Innovation and Energy Summit.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
We've got our eyes.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
As I mentioned on in Vidia, it's not just because
of this summit that's going on. There's big news today
that's been driving the stock price here sharply higher, AMD
as well in video right now up over four percent
or seven dollars to a new all time high. We're
in the one hundred seventy one dollars zone here for
in Nvidia, and it's not an accident. As you've been
(03:42):
hearing on Bloomberg, in Vidia and AMD, its rival have
been clear to resume some AI chip sales to China
in a very important reversal here. Remembering we told you
with the help of Mike Sheppard that Jensen Wong was
at the White House last week, we might have a
better idea now of what they were talking about. A
couple things I want to mention before we bring in
(04:03):
shep Howard Lutnik on the other network right now saying
that we're selling China our fourth best chip. These are
not the Blackwells, right, These are the age twenties that
you've heard about that in Vidio will now be able
to start selling to China again, Lutnx saying we stay
one step ahead of China, so they continue to buy
the chips, presumably that we want.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Them to buy.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Scott Besson also weighing in on talks trade talks with China.
He was live on Bloomberg TV and radio earlier today.
Here's what he said on Bloomberg Surveillance.
Speaker 5 (04:35):
You might say that that was a negotiating chip that
we used in Geneva and in London. It was all
part of a mosaic. They had things we wanted, we
have things they wanted, and we're in a very good place.
I expect to meet my Chinese counterpart, the Vice Premiere,
(04:55):
in the next few weeks.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Time to start stacking the chip. It sounds like Michael
Shepherd has been all over this story for US live
in Washington, Bloomberg Senior editor for Technology and Strategic Industries.
It's great to see you. My congratulations on all this coverage.
You're the one who's been scooping this for us. With
a remarkable turn in this administration. What did Jensen Wong
say to Donald Trump last week?
Speaker 6 (05:17):
Well, we don't know. This was a conversation that took
place in private between the two men who clearly, since
the starting the administration have built something of a rapport.
Joe It's funny and Trump's public remarks where Jensen Wong
has been present at an event or has been Trump
has been asked about Nvidia and things like chips restrictions.
(05:40):
He has singled out the CEO for lavish praise and
really jumped onto the Nvidia bandwagon as a signal of
what he sees as an American success story in Saudi Arabia.
He did a sort of a roll call of who
was present, and he was looking for Jensen Wang in
the audience and found him. Where's Jensen, Where's my friend Jensen?
And he went on to praise some of the spending
(06:02):
plans that in Nvidia has to make five hundred billion
dollars worth of its chips at these new TSMC plants
that are being built in Arizona right now. So Jensen
Wang is getting on the right side of Trump's attempt
to reindustrialize the country.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
That part of the story, But the other.
Speaker 6 (06:21):
Part is Trump may have been more receptive as a
result to Jensen Wong's other message, which is that, look,
we need to be able to export these chips to markets,
including China, because if we see the China market, it
is the largest or semiconductors in the world. Mind you,
if we see that market, then Huawei will have free
reign there, and then Huawei will be able to develop
(06:43):
enough critical mass to be able to start selling some
of those chips that compete with the videos to other
markets abroad, in the Middle East and Latin America and
in Africa. Jensen Wong very much wants and he's articulated
this repeatedly, including the US officials, that he wants to
see AI developed globally on what he calls an American
text test.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Right, And I've heard you say that before, but I've
never heard the argument quite the way that you just
articulated it. It's not just that you know, what's good
for America is good for the world. This is about
an emboldened China strength in Huawei that would have influence
beyond our borders. So if they're buying in Vidio, you
keep Wawei in check.
Speaker 6 (07:21):
That is at least the theory as spelled out by
Jensen Wong. Now there are a lot of China hawks
here in Washington. We've talked about for years, Joe, who
have great concerns about this approach. They see that letting
China and Chinese companies gain access to advanced technology like
in videos, it poses a national security risk. And they
(07:41):
see a great nexus between China's industrial complex and its
military complex. And the fear is that these AI chips
have a dual use potential, that they could be used
for surveillance for military purposes, and they see that as
a risk, and they had applauded the previous ban on
these Age twenty chips. Now, remember the H twenty chip
had been tailored specifically by Nvidia for the Chinese markets
(08:06):
to meet previous restrictions that the Biden administration had imposed.
But the administration, prior administration and the new administration, the
Trump administration had grown concerned that maybe those restrictions weren't
tough enough and that China might be able to do
something to either make gains in AI commercially or militarily.
Hence the move in February by Trump to crack down
(08:29):
on H twenty sales in China. But now we're seeing
a reversal. And Howard Lutna kind of pointed to this.
He was making the argument that look, those H twenty
chips are really kind of second or third tier. And
we even heard David Sachs in an interview on a
B Tech just in the past hour with our own
at Ludlow make essentially that same case, Joe.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
In our remaining moment here we're talking about Jensen Wogen
in video. This is a big deal for AMD as
well be able to sell its M three to eight.
If I'm saying it right now, ship does Lisa Sue
have Jensen want to thank her big competitor, Well.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Very much.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
I mean Lisa Sue of course has been trying to
make her own case in inroads with the administration on
this policy front. But really the name that garners all
the headlines and the chips that everybody around the world
wants for AI, it's in video.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
They're one of these Age twenty assemblies. They're pretty heavy.
Speaker 6 (09:23):
It's seventy pounds.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
Seventy pounds. Good workout, Joe. I bet that's true.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
It just makes you realize how difficult it is to
move these things to go to the gym. Well, I
bet that's right. With Mike Shepherd breaking news here today
on Bloomberg, as we watch shares of Nvidia leap higher,
now one hundred and seventy one dollars, up over four percent.
We'll keep tabs on this for you. With another check
on the markets coming up.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Right here on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance
of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and
five pm e stern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on ammaz on Alexa from our flagship New York station
Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
We want to talk about all of this with Anna Ashton,
the founder of Ashton Analytics, a specialist in US China trade,
which is why we bring her on so often, former
China analyst with the Department of Defense, and it's great
to have you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
I'm wondering your thoughts on this about face when it
comes to chips from Nvidia and AMD. Is this in
(10:27):
the best national security interest of America?
Speaker 7 (10:32):
Well, you know, I think it's important to note that
not only are these not the only things that the
Trump administration has recently rolled back in terms of export restrictions,
but all of the things that they've rolled back so
far are things that they themselves imposed this spring, either
in April or in May. So when Treasury Secretary Bassett
(10:55):
indicates that these were, you know, chips that were part
of the London negotiations, I take that at base value.
They imposed more restrictions on experts of certain goods that
they believed to be strategic for China in order to
have bargaining power to try to get China to speed
(11:18):
up its exports of bearers.
Speaker 8 (11:22):
Well, so, when you talk about the walk backs we've
seen from this administration on various fronts when it comes
to China, how much of a dovish urn would you
characterize it as? Anna If it is indeed a dubbish turn,
how upset do you think China hawks and then around
the administration and elsewhere are about these moves.
Speaker 7 (11:41):
Well, look, I definitely think that China hawks are going
to be upset, regardless of whether the rollbacks are of
restrictions that were imposed recently by the Trump administration or
of previously imposed restrictions, because from a China Hawk perspective,
none of this technology should be going to China at all.
(12:06):
But I also think that in terms of trying to
measure whether or not this is a dubvish term by
the Trump administration. We still have to wait and see,
because at the end of the day, this will only
be a truly substantive change in US policy towards China
when it comes to export controls and access to critical
US technologies. If we see a rollback in Biden era
(12:29):
export controls, I certainly think that that is something that
China wants, and it may be it's possible China will
get something like that because we know that rare exports
have you know, the licensing approvals have picked up, and
there's some evidence to indicate that shipments are are beginning
to flow more smoothly. But certainly there's no approval of
(12:55):
anything to go to military end users.
Speaker 9 (12:58):
For example.
Speaker 7 (12:59):
They could always be faster than they already are, and
they're not as fast as they were prior to these
restrictions on exports of Chinese rearers and magnets being imposed.
So we'll have to see whether or not the Trump
administration is willing to give ground on any Biden era policies.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Well, do you worry more about the next deep seek
emerging or do you go back to your role at
the Department of Defense and worry about what China might
do with this technology when it comes to building weapons.
Speaker 7 (13:31):
I think that whether or not China gets this technology.
Speaker 9 (13:34):
From the US, and I think that this is.
Speaker 7 (13:36):
This buys China time to continue developing indigenous technologies without
losing the ability to apply these technologies in various ways
that are important for them in the near term. But
China has been throwing enormous amounts of money towards indigenous
(13:57):
development of its own technologies so that it won't have
to rely on the United States anymore.
Speaker 9 (14:02):
It's been doing that for.
Speaker 7 (14:03):
A number of years now, and it's been doubling and
tripling down on that. I think it's only a matter
of time before China doesn't need US technologies in order
to accomplish the various ends that it's trying to accomplish.
Speaker 9 (14:18):
And so that's happening regardless.
Speaker 8 (14:23):
Well, speaking of matters of time, Anna, we just heard
from the Treasury Secretary moments ago suggesting that August twelfth
should not be viewed by market participants as a deadline
they should be worried about. Does that suggest to you
that there is a lack of forward progress in reaching
more of a trade agreement between the US and China.
Should we consider any of these deadlines to be real
(14:45):
at this point.
Speaker 9 (14:48):
Super fair question.
Speaker 7 (14:49):
It does suggest to me that they have yet to
make it past serious discussion, make it too serious discussion
of things beyond rare earth.
Speaker 9 (14:59):
I feel like rare earth has been the.
Speaker 7 (15:01):
Hair on fire crisis for the Trump administration, particularly because
of the heavy rare earth magnets that are so important
not only to electric vehicles but also to traditional combustion
engine vehicles and to so many electronics. And I think
that you know that that will continue to be something
(15:22):
that China can use as leverage to get the US
to the table, and until that is satisfactorily resolved in
the US mind, it will be hard to move forward
on negotiation of other issues.
Speaker 10 (15:38):
Uh.
Speaker 9 (15:38):
I think it is worth noting that.
Speaker 7 (15:41):
A couple of key heavy rare earths that are used
in these magnets that have been in short supply, like
dysprosium for example, and neodemium. Uh, those also are not
They're primarily sourced from Me and mar and the state
in Me and that they're primarily sourced from has been
(16:01):
incredibly unstable due to domestic conflict for the past six
six to eight months, and China itself is having a
hard time getting these things. So it's just worth keeping
in mind that China is not necessarily simply using these
rare earth export licensing restrictions to.
Speaker 9 (16:25):
Gain leverage visa v. The US.
Speaker 7 (16:27):
It is also thinking about its own supply security.
Speaker 9 (16:32):
And that may that may lean how much it can negotiate.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Do you want to see President Trump President She in
the same room. Do you want to see a summit?
And is that in fact where the President might be
most likely to give up the ghost on this and
lower export controls to your point from the Biden administration.
Speaker 7 (16:51):
From from a from the perspective of somebody who would
like to see a more functional and healthy US China relationship, Yeah,
that sounds like a really nice thing when I'm thinking
about it in terms of.
Speaker 9 (17:09):
Strict US interests.
Speaker 7 (17:10):
There are things that could certainly be gained there if
I put on my China Hawk hat and look at
it through the lens of security concerns. These are really
difficult trade offs, and a meeting that caused President Trump
to relax export controls, you know, bigger and more fundamental
(17:32):
export controls on advanced technologies to China might not be
in the US interest.
Speaker 9 (17:40):
Anna.
Speaker 8 (17:41):
We learned from President Trump yesterday that if no ceasefire
agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine within fifty days,
that he will look to impose one hundred percent what
he described as secondary tariffs on countries that help Russia,
including big buyers of Russian oil read China. Do you
expect Beijing would respond if indeed something like that were implemented.
(18:04):
Would would their behavior be, Okay, well, we're going to
stop buying cheap Russian crude and exports, or we're going
to potentially retaliate against the US with tariffs and kind.
Speaker 7 (18:15):
China certainly can't stop buying Russian crude or gas, and
that's because it gets an even bigger percentage from Russia
than it did before the Ukraine War started.
Speaker 9 (18:27):
And you know, it's pretty it's pretty heavily rely ont
on Russia.
Speaker 7 (18:30):
Russia it's one of its main suppliers. So that's that's
not in the cards. What is potentially in the cards
is use of smaller companies instead of their main oil
and gas companies, which which is already to a large
extent the case to move that oil and gas and
(18:51):
therefore sort of shield China's broader economy for many secondary
sanctions that are imposed. If if the secondary sanctions don't
hit the big banks that are you know, if the
big banks aren't processing these transactions, then you know, China
can kind of prevent calamity from ensuing as a result
(19:14):
of the sanctions. And we've seen them kind of we've
seen them do that with their purchases from Iran as well.
That's what I would expect that to be their first move.
Speaker 8 (19:25):
Well, so Anna, if I read you correctly, if China's
not going to be able to actually adjust its purchases
of Russian oil, would that mean that these these secondary sanctions, tariffs,
whatever you want to call them, would not have the
intended effect the president wants here, which is to put
the squeeze on the Russian economy and stop them from
being able to fund their war machine.
Speaker 7 (19:45):
I don't think that they would have the intended effect
because I think that I mean, you know, other countries
that are buying from Russia might not have the same
safeguards in place to protect them from secondary sanctions, but
China certainly has safeguards in place, and China.
Speaker 9 (20:05):
Is the biggest fire. So yeah, I mean, I think.
Speaker 7 (20:10):
That we've been learning the hard way for a few
years now that there are limits to the power of
US sanctions and they don't always achieve what we hope
that they will achieve. And I don't think that secondary
sanctions on all sales of Russian oil are necessarily going
to achieve what Trump wants.
Speaker 8 (20:33):
All right, Anna, we appreciate you joining us as always.
Anna Ashton's founder of Ashton Analytics.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
China looming large today in testimony on Capitol Hill. Michael Waltz, Yes,
that Michael Waltz on Capitol Hill today, the President's former
National security advisor who I won't say was fired but
removed from that job, and it all followed the whole
signal scandal that you might remember. Michael Waltz is now
(21:19):
the President's nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations and
That is the reason why he was on Capitol Hill
today a confirmation hearing to be the US Ambassador to
the UN. But everybody said when this was announced that
how could he survive such a blistering hearing the likes
of Chris Coons, Tim Kaine and other Democrats. We're going
(21:42):
to speak truth to power here delve into the signal
scandal that of course included revealing military attack plans, air strikes,
the timing and method of the air strikes that would
be used against houthy rebels. It was Mike Waltz that
added a journalist from the Atlantic to that signal chat
that also included the Secretary of Defense and the Vice
(22:04):
President of the United States. I don't have to replay
this whole thing to you. This has been a coiled
spring for some time. We thought there'd be fireworks popping
off in the hearing. The aforementioned Chris Coons, Democrat from Delaware,
did tangle with Michael Waltz on this Let's listen.
Speaker 11 (22:21):
You were sharing details about an upcoming airstrike and the
time of launch and the potential targets. I mean, this
was demonstrably sensitive information and the question I asked was
where you investigated for this expansion of the signal group
to include a journalist.
Speaker 12 (22:41):
The White House conducted an investigation, and my understanding is
the Department of Defense is still conducting an investigation.
Speaker 11 (22:48):
Was any disciplinary action taken.
Speaker 12 (22:53):
From the White House Investigation Center? Yes, No, the use
of signal was not only not authorized, is still authorized
and highly recommended.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Not only authorized, but highly recommended. That was kind of it.
Tim Kaine had one question for him. Democrats seem to
have given up the ghosts on this whole scandal, and
maybe he will, in fact be the next US ambassador
to the UN. We assemble our political panel for their
take on this and a lot more. Genie Schanzano is
(23:26):
with US Bloomberg Politics contributor, Senior Democracy Fellow with the
Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. And
mor Gillespie is back, a Republican strategist, founder Blue Stack Strategies,
a veteran of John Bayner's Speaker's office in the House
of Representatives. Great to see you both, Welcome back. Of course, Jeanie,
did Democrats forget what a big deal this was a
(23:46):
couple of months ago. What happened today?
Speaker 13 (23:49):
Yeah, it was about an hour in before we even
got those questions about signal Gate that we just heard
from Chris Coons. They were focused on other issues that
are critically important. Most importantly, of course, our relationship with China,
so that that is critically important. They talked about Israel,
but they did wait a long time. And not only
(24:11):
were there only a few questions about Signalgate, but interestingly,
Senator Corey Booker didn't even ask any questions. He just
expressed his deep disappointment, he's not going to support Waltz,
and that was it. So I think we expected a
little bit more of them to take up the opportunity
to make some points for those all important campaign commercials
(24:33):
in twenty six. They didn't use this opportunity that way.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
So what's the lesson here? More time heals all scandals.
Because this was an outrage. It was the biggest story
in the world when this broke. The screen grabs of
that signal chat had us talking for weeks, and today
this is what we got.
Speaker 10 (24:53):
I am a little surprised at the lack of questioning around.
You know, did Mike Waltz know where Steve Woodkoff was
on that message change? Sure, of course, obviously the big
question about the adding a reporter to a chain, But
I had concerns about the fact that Steve wik Koff
was in Russia and these conversations were happening, and so
that was one of my concerns, and I'm surprised that
wasn't necessarily brought up. But I think what the takeaway
(25:16):
here is that Mike Waltz isn't the target. You know,
Pete Haig sets was the one that was putting out
the line by line war plans, and Pete Haig Seth
seems to be the target I think for Democrats that
they wanted to have, you know, advertisements against a Trump
administration official in the future, that's going to be somebody
who they could actually galvanize their base and their voters
(25:38):
to be realized as a threat. Mike Waltz is a
decorated war veteran, he has had administration experience, so I
don't think that he's necessarily the person that they need
to be going after in that regards.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Well, you know, look, it's interesting here if China is
in fact the main topic for Democrats, Genie, that is
what they spent the most time on. Do Democrats trust
Mike Walls in this position to counter China. He talked
about going up against China as absolutely critical. China pushes
its personnel into roles at all levels, including bodies that
(26:11):
set international standards. He says, it's absurd that China continues
to be treated as a developing nation.
Speaker 3 (26:18):
These are ideas that democrats agree with.
Speaker 2 (26:20):
Correct they are.
Speaker 13 (26:23):
And you know, when I was listening to the testimony,
I was thinking back to you're really a good conversation
yesterday with Senator Jean Shaheen, and she made a point
then and she made it again today during the hearing,
which is that the administration's approach to China, despite all
the rhetoric, is incoherent. And she points to several things,
(26:46):
but one thing of the moment is that while this
hearing is going on, we are on the verge of
a vote on the Recisions Package, which would destroy USAID.
And what China is doing so well right now, which
is something United States used to do, which is the
exercise of soft power and diplomatic application of pressure and
(27:08):
not terrifying our friends and allies. And so, Senator Shaheen,
both to you and Kaylee yesterday and importantly in the
hearing today made this point, and you know, Mike Waltz
had very little to come back with on any of
those points or the minority report released, which is the
fact that the administration's approach to China is scattered. And
(27:30):
that's my word, not Senator Shaheen's. It is scattered, and
we're running in several directions at the same time. And
I think that was reiterated more strongly today by Mike
Waltz's inability to respond to her than anything else I've
heard recently.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
That's really interesting, moro, when you consider the cuts that
have come to USAID that are included in this recisions package,
the ability for America to wage the information war to
try to influence people outside of our borders.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Does Genie have a point on this?
Speaker 10 (28:01):
Absolutely? And I do think that Mike Waltz is in
a precarious position because he does obviously feel as though
he's kind of on the chopping box still with the
Trump administration after the Signal Gate fallout, So how forward
he'd be about his position on the role of USAID.
And truthfully, I think for many Americans and those in
leadership and those who have had an administration experience, they
(28:23):
recognize that our usaid and you know, foreign aid is
a diplomacy tool, and they could, you know, put that
under the umbrella of the Secretary of State and use
it as a diplomacy tool because it is. It helps us,
like Janine said, like self power, right. But what Mike
Waltz has to do, he has a delicate dance to
do here because he doesn't want to go out publicly
(28:43):
and speak out saying something that's maybe contractary what the
trendministration wants to say. But he knows the important role
in America players in the world, and so I do
have confidence that he knows that. How much he can
do currently, but it's hard to say, but for these
next few years he could do. I have more confidence
than that.
Speaker 2 (29:02):
Well, Genie, I wonder if some of the Democrats in
that hearing room today should have listened to Barack Obama
or maybe they were listening his comments at this fundraiser
the other night, pretty remarkable. This was a fundraiser, a
closed door fundraiser as these things go, that was put
together at the home of Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey,
(29:23):
a d NC fundraiser where the President said it's going
to require the former president a little less naval gazing
and a little less whining and being in the fetal position.
He's telling Democrats to toughen up, Genie. And he went
on to say that when he was president, progressives liberals
stood for all kinds of stuff. Who seem like they're
(29:44):
kind of now cowed and intimidated and shrinking away from
just asserting what they believe. Is that what we witnessed
today in the hearing.
Speaker 13 (29:52):
You know, I don't think so I understand what the
former president is trying to do. He was particularly tough
in those comments on elite institutions, those outside of traditional
power in Congress, running the elite law firms and the
elite universities and others. He didn't mention some by name,
but clearly that was on his mind in terms of
(30:13):
their stepping back, accepting assuaging DONALDS. Trump's attacks on them.
The media as well, he was less I think tough
on some of those in elected office. So I'm not
sure he was their primary target, but he is trying
to energize the base. And the timing here is very
interesting because we have an election today which is going
(30:35):
to tell us a lot for a House seat of
a member who passed away.
Speaker 9 (30:40):
We have it in.
Speaker 13 (30:41):
It's going to be in Arizona's seventh district, and you've
got to split there amongst progressives. And what's so interesting
about this is you've got some of the progressives like
Bernie Sanders on one side, and you've got some of
the other ones on the other side, who are of
the younger I would say, David Hoggiety, who have made
their case for a more robust pushing back. And I
(31:05):
think for people in Congress, those are the kind of
debates we're seeing, Not to mention my very own New
York City where we have a very progressive Mamdani versus
a still representative Adams and former Governor Pomo. So Democrats
are trying to iron this out at this point.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
I'm glad you mentioned that special primary today in Arizona.
It is something that we're going to be watching genius
Democrats choose their nominee to succeed Ralu Grahalva. There's also
new polling out today more from the Fbizio group here
Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward. That is not good news
for Republicans. On the midterm campaign trail, Republicans trailing on
(31:44):
the generic ballot. Here in a survey of twenty eight
battleground House seats, including fifteen were Republicans won in twenty
twenty four by five points or less, and thirteen won
by both the Democratic House candidate and Trump. Among those
most motivated to vote, an early indication of vote likelihood
in the midterms, the Republican is down seven points. How
(32:06):
do you turn that around between now and the midterms.
Speaker 10 (32:09):
More Well, it's interesting because Republicans will have to decide
what benefits they get from staying in line and supporting
Trump's message if he can galvanize his voters to come out.
There's a big fracture right now amongst his own base.
And so how much do they play up their allegiance
to Donald Trump or how much do they focus more
(32:30):
on the district themselves, the constituents. We know that midterms
typically produce a lower turnout. It's not necessarily news that's
pretty unfortunately the standard. People just don't turn out from
midterms that they do in a general election and when
there's a presidential But that being said, these members do
need Given the fact that the House is such as
the majority, it has been projected that Democrats will take
(32:50):
the gabble but within one big beautiful bill that messaging
Democrats are probably ripe to go ahead and campaign on
that because of his low approval rates. But again, I
think a big question for Republicans running for reelection is
to decide do I stick with Trump and tout my allegiance,
or do I focus more on the people who I represent,
who I'm so hosted to be serving here and talk
(33:12):
about the issues that matter most to them, and less
focus on a president who's the blame.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Duck Mora Gillespie and Jeanie Shanzano. Thanks for listening to
the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get
your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday
from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.
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