April 25, 2025 • 41 mins
Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
President Donald Trump suggested another delay to his higher so-called “reciprocal” tariffs was unlikely, raising pressure on nations to negotiate trade deals with his administration.
Asked about the possibility of granting another 90-day pause, Trump cast that scenario as “unlikely,” while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday. Trump also said that he would not drop tariffs on China, the world’s second largest economy, unless Beijing offers “something substantial” in return.
Trump said he believed financial markets were adjusting to his tariff policy, downplaying the volatility that has hit equity and bond markets this month after he announced plans to hit about 60 US trading partners with higher duties.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:
- Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall.
- Abroath Group Managing Director Christopher Smart.
- Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino.
- Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick.
- Former US Diplomat Mara Rudman
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
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Speaker 2 (00:25):
Eighty seven months in prism sentence for George Santos. Remember
there was a time, Joe in Washington where George Santos
was like the most scandalous thing we could possibly be
talking about, captured all the attention in the headlines. It
feels like we have a story like that now at
least once a day, if not.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
That seems a bit quaint at this point of reporters
running through hallways trying to get him on the record,
doors being slammed. He was speaking pretty existentially from the heart,
I guess, to the New York Times, talking about how
he came into this world alone and he will deal
with this alone.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Eighty seven months.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
That's a pretty remarkable sentence for the former congressman from
New York.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, and of course we talk a lot less about
George Santos these days, not just because he's no longer
a member of the House of Representatives, but because other
issues have caught the attention of Washington in the world
predominantly of course, focused on issues like trade as well
as geopolitical conflict, and the President, who likes to see
himself as deal maker in chief, trying to make deals
on all of these different fronts with trading partners but
(01:22):
also with adversaries and allies when it comes to ending
the war in Ukraine, for example, and he touched on
both when speaking to reporters before his departure for Rome
earlier today.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
I'm getting along very well with your fan.
Speaker 5 (01:34):
On We're very close to a deal leeting with Puttin
right now as we speak, and we.
Speaker 6 (01:40):
Have a lot of things.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Going on, and I think.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
In the end we're going to end up with a
lot of.
Speaker 5 (01:43):
Good deals, including tariff Dale's and trade deals.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
This is where we start with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, who
is at the White House right now as the President
first Lady make their way to Rome.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
She's on the north lawn with the latest Tyler.
Speaker 7 (01:58):
Yeah, hey, Joe. Well, one of the themes that we
are tracking here, of course, the trade talks. You heard
President Trump there say that there has been good progress
with Japan, and he also has been talking about how
he has been speaking with China's President E Jijing Ping.
Caylee mentioned at the top there at the time magazine
interview which was released today but actually conducted on Tuesday,
where he said that he was called by the Chinese president. Now, however,
(02:21):
he didn't give us many details, didn't give us a
timeline or what was discussed, and reporters tried to pin
him down on it when he was heading out towards
Marine One, asking if this call had taken place since
his tariff announcement and take a listen to what he
had to say here When he was asked.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
You said, you've spoke with President k Have you spoken
to him since the terrans?
Speaker 5 (02:40):
I don't want to comment on that, but I've spoken
to him many times. Yeah, I'll let you know at
the appropriate time. Let's say, if we can make a deal.
Speaker 7 (02:49):
Well, when it comes to a deal, President Trump has
reiterated that he thinks that one hundred and forty five
percent levy on Chinese goods is very high amounts to
a trade in bargo, which has prompted some optimism that
that rate could come down in that Time magazine interview.
He did say that he knew what the rate was
that Beijing would be comfortable with, and has previously floated
that in the next two to three weeks we could
(03:10):
actually see a revised rate. It does come on the
heels of some Bloomberg News reporting earlier today that China
is potentially getting ready to exempt some US goods from tariffs.
This includes particular sectors where Beijing is more import reliance,
such as medical equipment or industrial chemicals that are used
to make things like plastics or cooling agents or reporting
also indicates that potentially a plane leases could be exempt
(03:33):
from tariffs too, So sort of a wide range here
as Beijing tries to shore up its own support for
its economy amid what has become a tip for trade war.
But Joe and Kelly sources familiar do caution Bloomberg News
that everything is still very much in flux as we
try to piece together where trade talks are really headed.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Well, and that goes not just for China, but trade
negotiations with our dozens of trading partners. As we're still
looking for any deal to emerge. Tyler, do we have
a sensus to whether or not even just within the timeframe.
The President has a lot in himself for this trip
to Rome that any conversations with European leaders, for example,
on trade will be happening well.
Speaker 7 (04:09):
He was asked directly that Kylie whether or not he
would be taking meetings. He did say he was, but
of course this is a very short timeline. Here really
remains to be seen if there will be any sort
of policides when it comes to this. There are, of
course those countries that we know that have been getting
priority when it does come to these talks with Taragery
Secretary Scott Besson in the Oval Office yesterday saying that
South Korea the timeline for a potential trade deal with
(04:31):
them is actually faster than he intended. He said that
we could see an agreement of understanding, as he called it,
with the technical details worked out as soon as next week.
That sort of falls in line with some rhetoric that
we've heard for other trading partners that have been prioritized,
including Japan and also importantly India. After Vice President Jade
Vance visited the country over the weekend, we had to
(04:51):
read out from the USTR saying that they had finalized
a roadmap towards an agreement. That's sort of what we
have been hearing from this administration that we're going to
start to see these frames works rolled out as this
White House really tries to show that they are making
progress on these deals, all right, with one hundred day
mark looming next week. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live at the
White House for us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Thank you so much. And it does sound, Joe that
for all of the optimism that markets seem to a founder,
at the very least the sigh of relief they seem
to be breathing this week, that so far we haven't
gotten much more material than maybe a softening of rhetoric
on the margins and also agreement to eventually agree to something,
but not actually those final ink deals.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Far from this kind of goes back to Tuesday. We're
still trading off of the de escalate remarking away from
Scott Bessen, which was behind closed doors. And I know
that the President has suggested maybe a drive to be
more kind in negotiations with China, but it is interesting
to see a bit under the market here with very
little fact to base it on. Maybe there's some bottom
feeding going on. We'll know more about this after it happens.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Yeah, well, and we'll hopefully know more about it after
speaking to Christopher Smart about it. He's with us here
in our Washington, d C. Studio, managing partner in our
Growth Group and former special Assistant to the President in
international economics during the Obama administration, here with us on
balance of Power. Good to see you. Thank you for
coming in. I wonder, as you consider the kind of
tone shift we have seen this week, or sentiment shift
(06:15):
at the very least, if you think there's enough materially
fundamentally that has changed here to back that up.
Speaker 8 (06:22):
Well, I think the bouncing in the market that we've
seen is a reflection of just how much investors, I think,
are grasping at any sign of slightly more certainty where
we're headed, whether it's on tariffs, whether it's on negotiations.
You know, if the fact, as you were pointing out, Joe,
that an announcement of an intention to make an agreement
about a memory of an understanding moves the market, that's
(06:44):
how bad things are. I wasn't actually in this meeting
when Secretary of Beston talked about de escalation talked about
the need for one side to climb down. I think
he didn't assume that it was going to be the
United States climbing down. But I think investors mostly expect
that if we're going to have some agreement this quickly.
These are trade agreements that are very complicated and take
(07:06):
months and years to really negotiate and hammer out. But
if we're going to come down, if we're going to
strike a deal very quickly, it means it's going to
be something of less substance.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Well, that's really interesting because the President said, you know,
with the idea of a trade deal as best and
himself suggest it could take two or three years. The
President said we could have new rates, new tariff rates
for China in two to three weeks. Is that the
US climbing down? And does that make you feel more hopeful?
Speaker 6 (07:30):
Well? I would.
Speaker 8 (07:31):
I don't want to contradict the President, but it does
seem hard to believe that that's what we're going to
be doing. The confusion in the market right now is
nobody expects that one hundred and forty five percent tariffs
can be permanent. And I think worth hearing that, and
that was reassuring to people because it's just not sustainable.
Speaker 4 (07:48):
It is an.
Speaker 8 (07:49):
Embargo effectively, as Secretary Besson said, But the real question
is will we have more certainty on the other side
of things? And you know, there is a world in
which you look through the fall and there's a budget deal,
the debt limit is behind us, and we have half
a dozen of these framework agreements in place, and so
you know what kind of range we're dealing with, and
that's a much better world. But the question is is
(08:12):
that the new steady state or do new things get
put on the table?
Speaker 4 (08:16):
Well?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
And as you suggest this idea that no one thinks
we're going to stay at one hundred and forty five
percent forever, I wonder how much can change though, even
if that no longer remains the rate in terms of
our fundamental relationship with China. Knowing already there was an
effort to diversify supply chains away from China because of
the scars of the pandemic, you have news today Apple
is going to look for all of the iPhones it
sells in the US to be made in India by
(08:37):
the end of next year. Changes are already underway. Can
we ever really revert back to any kind of at
least what was the norm.
Speaker 8 (08:45):
No, I think the old norms have been broken, and
I think we are moving into a new kind of arrangement.
What that really looks like in the end is hard
to predict, but I think it is, you know, a
decoupling of sorts. We used to tell companies that you
need a China plus strategy, so you should build a
factory in China and then one outside of China. I
think companies are now looking at a US plus one
(09:06):
strategy where they have to you know, the India deal.
I'm sorry, the India announcement at Apple is to bring
product into the US from India rather than from China.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Well, this is all happening with financial ministers and leaders
from around the world coming to Washington for the Spring
meetings of IMF World Bank.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
This is a peculiar moment for all of this to
be unfolding.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
We're talking about what Scott Besson said behind closed doors
this week. There's a lot of conversations happening behind closed doors,
and I wonder what you can share with us. What
are you hearing that didn't get into the front page
or onto the Bloomberg terminal when it comes to concern
when it comes to uncertainty. What is the general feeling
with world leaders this week?
Speaker 8 (09:47):
Well, I think the measure of how grim things are
is that the session that I was in on the
Middle East is the most optimistic that we might have
an Iran deal. And that could really go a long
way to imagine saying that months ago. But it gives
you a sense of the uncertain about everything else. Yeah,
whether it's Russia or China, or US policy or indeed,
(10:09):
a lot of our foreign friends are really looking at
what's happening in the court system, what's happening in the
regulatory system. Lots of questions about the FED until the
President backed off on that, and a real sense of
is the United States the same business model that we've
all come to love and invest in over the last
several decades. Those things don't change overnight. It takes years
(10:29):
for things to change dramatically. But the things that made
the US so consistently innovative, dynamic, and able to grow
so quickly are people are questioning.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
I'm glad you raised the FED too, because as we
consider what changed this week, we did start the week
not knowing if the President intended to fire the FED chair,
and then he said he had no intention, never had
any intention of that. So maybe clarity on that issue
at least for now, Christopher, But he still maintains, even
if he's not going to try to oust Pale, that
he thinks Palell needs to move now, that he risks
being too late. And I wonder what the economic picture
(11:04):
you are seeing if you think there might actually be
some merit in that argument that monetary policy simply isn't
going to be able to react quickly enough to whatever
it is we're heading into.
Speaker 8 (11:13):
Well, I think my view, and I think the view
of a lot of investors that I talk to, is
that the best thing you can do right now is
to sit tight. You probably want to you certainly don't
want to think about raising rates right now, but you
want to know what where that level where the steady
state is going to settle. I mean, if you could
sort of start knowing where tariffs will be and start
(11:35):
modeling that and sort of thinking through where that will
feed through to either inflation or slow in growth, that's
one thing to do, but you don't know where that's
going to settle, and the President isn't helping things unfortunately.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
What it do damage to the fed's image if we
did get a cut right now, I think, in a way,
what if Ja Pallis said, okay, twenty five bases stop calling.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
What would be the market reaction.
Speaker 8 (11:55):
I think it would probably be positive for a day
and a half, but overall negatived and trust I think
it starts to undermine the Fed's credibility, because you know,
we've had the FED. It's been remarkable through all of
our political discord. I don't think anybody credibly attacks the
FED for being politically motivated one way or the other
over the last several years. The unfortunate thing right now
(12:17):
is whoever is nominated to replace j.
Speaker 4 (12:19):
Powell next year is going.
Speaker 8 (12:21):
To come with a sort of a shadow of suspicion
of what kind of a deal did they did they
strike to get the job?
Speaker 4 (12:27):
Not a shadow chair, which we've talked about before.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, that's certainly an idea that has been floated at
this table by the now Treasury Secretary of stant actually
of all people, to this notion of credibility. Though it's
one thing to consider the Fed's credibility, it's another thing
to consider just the credibility of the United States. We
have a new story out on the terminal today looking
at the dollar could be the worst first one hundred
days the dollar is seen since the Nixon administration. We
(12:51):
all have been paying attention to what's been happening in
the bond market, and we haven't even really started the
debt ceiling fight yet, Christopher, which we have to look
forward to in the next few months. Do you see
a serious risk of an undermining of the credit worthiness
of the United States or the view of credit worthiness
of full faith and credit.
Speaker 8 (13:07):
Well, as you know, credit worthiness is incremental and goes
their shades of gray. I don't think things are you know,
I don't think things are about to fall apart. I
think the dollar is still the royals reserve currency for
a long time, given the lack of alternatives.
Speaker 4 (13:21):
But we clearly haven't done ourselves any good.
Speaker 8 (13:23):
And it is one of those things on the margin
where I think investors start looking at the US business model,
they go back. Portfolio managers are going back to meet
with their investment committees over the next few months, and
they're going to say, what's our exposure to the US
sixty seventy percent, Let's just take that down five or
ten for now it's going to be a brave portfolio
manager who goes to his credit committee and says, let's
just double down on the US because we think they've
(13:44):
got something good going on right now.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
I wonder your thoughts in our remaining couple of minutes
here on a series of unilateral deals emerging here we're
talking frameworks.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
Let's say they do emerge as deals.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
This seems to be a best case scenario for Wall
Street right now, but it's a pretty darn confusing mess
to consider how this White House could negotiate them all simultaneously,
and how they would all potentially argue with each other
in the end. Do you worry about that patchwork being
the final product here?
Speaker 8 (14:11):
I think it's a big worry right now. I guess
the glib answer to your question is maybe.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
AI will help them negotiate all of you. Maybe, but
I think it is.
Speaker 8 (14:20):
I mean, actually that's probably the encouraging outcome, because as
long as you don't have a single principle you have
to apply to all of your negotiating partners, you can
cut separate deals and then investors can understand what the
rules will be. But it is certainly a different framework
and it's not the more integrated, free or flowing goods
and financial.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
Rewriting of supply chain.
Speaker 8 (14:42):
That's the rewriting the supply chains, and it's a shifting
of the system and the rules we've.
Speaker 4 (14:45):
Been used to since the end of the Cold War.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
Well remarkable, Christopher Smart on IMF week with us here
in Washington. It's a treat to have you with us.
It's great to be here at the desk. I hope
we can do this again. Sometimes it's behind the scenes
and some pretty interesting conversations, including the one we just
had here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew alongside
Kaylee Lines in Washington. We're just getting started. We have
to assemble our panel next. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno
are with us on another busy day in Washington with
(15:09):
their eyes on Rome. Four am for the papal funeral tomorrow,
and the President looks like is coming straight back.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Yes, indeed, that is what's on the schedule. Of course,
it'll be four am for us. It will be later
on more appropriate time of the morning, but still only
I think eight hours after the President is scheduled to
land in Europe. So it is a tight turnaround. Indeed,
we'll have more ahead here. On Bloomberg TV Radio.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch
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You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Fourth update in a row, could actually turn out to
be a pretty good week four risk assets, even in
the face of still a lot of questions remaining on
the fate of US trade policy and of trade negotiations.
We've heard from President Trump a few times about this today,
including as of course he boarded or it was heading
to Rome. He just spoke with reporters on Air Force one,
once again saying that countries have been unfair to the
(16:13):
US when it comes to trade. But he also spent
a good deal of time talking with Time magazine about
his trade policy, suggesting in this interview, which took place
a few days ago on April twenty second, that there's
been some two hundred trade deals that he's done, though
none have been announced, but he suggests this whole thing
could be wrapped up in three to four weeks.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
A lot of countries.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
It is a lot.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
He also said that China's President Xi Jimping has called
him yes, and that his administration is in active talks
with Chinese to strike a deal, and we've talked about this,
that he was asked about this a couple times this week.
Lutnik and other senior administration officials referring to the Commerce
Secretary Howard Lutnik confirmed the talks, which Beijing disputes. So
we're still not actually sure if they're on the phone call.
Speaker 2 (16:58):
Yeah, we heard the President once again this morning saying
he's talked to she multiple times, but he wouldn't say when,
wouldn't say if it was since the implementation of these tariffs.
We do know they did speak a few days ahead
of his inauguration back in January, but there has been
no confirmation of a phone call since then.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
We'll play this to the panel and get their thoughts
on this, because we are at an interesting moment here
with the President airborne on his way to Rome, lawmakers
still at home, and our chance to talk about some
important issues with our panel. Rick Davis is here, a
Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside our
democratic strategist Genie Shanzino, political science professor at Iona University.
Speaker 4 (17:35):
It's great to see you both here. Genie.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
I've been asking since Donald Trump said on the Oval
Office that they quote unquote were meeting and he wasn't
going to suggest or reveal he said who they were
or was, does it matter at what level these talks
are happening.
Speaker 9 (17:52):
Well, it sure does, you know. I mean, it's not
a great day for the United States when we have
to have our pre isn't corrected by the Chinese Foreign
Ministry saying, you know, don't exaggerate, tell the truth, be clear,
and that's essentially what we're getting. I mean, you just
mentioned the two hundred deals. We don't know how that
(18:13):
could be with less than that many countries in the world.
But apparently he's talking about something else. So you know,
this is typical Donald Trump. He's excited about his first
hundred days overstating numbers. And the fact is people are
really dependent for their lives on the truth of many
of these things, and so these overstatements become sort of
(18:35):
silly in a way, but also problematic in a serious.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
Way well and Rick, when we consider that China is
openly contesting the suggestions by President Trump that negotiations are happening,
putting it out there for the world to see, does
that do anything to undermined undermine the President's credibility knowing
that we often sometimes approach with skepticism certain characterization he
(19:00):
makes or statements that he makes.
Speaker 10 (19:03):
Yeah, look, I mean we've learned for a long time
that you have to take everything that Donald Trump tells
you with a grain of salt.
Speaker 11 (19:10):
Right.
Speaker 10 (19:10):
He even admits to hyperbole on virtually every issue that
he ever comes out of his mouth. So it's pretty
dark days when you have to rely on China, known
for its propaganda and use of distraction as a foreign
policy tool, to get the straight dope. I don't trust
(19:30):
either one of them. I mean, you know, I'll believe
it when I see it, and I think in this case,
to you know, try to follow the spin, you know.
I mean, we went from ninety deals in ninety days
to one hundred and twenty five countries have terrace on him,
to two hundred deals are going to be announced. I mean,
(19:51):
I just want to know who's negotiating with the penguins
on Hurd Island, because that's what I'm watching for real success.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
That's true, they are still facing pretty high tariffs. He
got into a national security in geopolitics.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
In this interview.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
They talked for about an hour, and again Kayley mentions
this took place on April twenty second. Geni talked about
Ukraine and blamed Kiev for starting the war. Quote, I
think what caused the war to start was when they
started talking about joining NATO unquote. The negotiated pece he
is pursuing would of course give Ladim refruitin some twenty
(20:27):
percent of Ukrainian territory. As Time magazine points out, the
president said, quote crimea will stay with Russia unquote. What
do you make of these comments to a publication in
the throes of peace talks.
Speaker 9 (20:43):
Yeah, I mean it's a sad moment for the United
States and for democracy around the world that we have
now a president in office. I give him credit, by
the way, for trying to negotiate a deal, but not
just that he's talking about it, but that he is
blaming a sovereign country been invaded. And you look at
those horrific pictures from the last seventy two hours of
(21:05):
the absolute violence that Russia has, you know, over the
air and on the ground in Kiev, on you know,
in the heart of Europe. And to have an American president,
the leading democracy in the world, say crimea is gone
and to blame the victim is just utterly appalling. But
(21:26):
it's in keeping with so much in this conversation that
is stunning. I mean, they ask him at one point
about a quote from John Adams, does he believe we
are a government of laws and not of men? And
he says no, I wouldn't agree to that one hundred percent.
And he goes on to talk about why that is.
You know, this is the president we're dealing with, and
(21:48):
he's hiding behind the fact that he ran on these things.
But he is also, if you look at the polls,
losing support on a lot of what he's pursuing here.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
Well, and when we consider the geopolitical part of this interview, Rick,
when he was talking about a deal with Ukraine, the
journalist questioned him on his repeated insistence on the campaign
trail that he could end the war in a day,
and he suggested in his answer that he was just
exaggerating that no one should have expected him to end
(22:19):
the war in the day in a day to get
back to kind of what we were discussing about his
rhetoric here, But is that also an admission that this
particular negotiation with Steve Witkoff dispatched again to the Kremlin
today to meet with Putin is much harder than he
thought walking in.
Speaker 10 (22:37):
Yeah. Look, I mean I think Donald Trump, whether you
think it's a superpower or a significant problem, simplifies every
complicated world problem into the basic elements that he wants
to talk about. And so from his perspective, why in
the world would anybody want to continue killing each other
(23:00):
with no apparent success on either side. So in his mind,
you know, offer a deal that stops the killing, which
he must have repeated a thousand times on the campaign trail,
and everyone's going to take that deal. It is a
surprise to him. I have no doubt that there are
more intransient issues than life and death on the front
lines of Ukraine and Russia at work here. I think
(23:24):
he's found the same thing. We've kind of quit talking
about it, but same thing applies to piece in Gaza.
He's made many statements along the campaign trail, and since
president he was going to wrap that up in no time.
Nobody's going to oppose his will, and it's only gotten
worse there. He told Putin to stop attacks. Yesterday and
overnight we had more suicide drone attacks launched from Russia
(23:48):
onto Ukraine. I mean, he needs to start to be
concerned that by making these declarations to ordering heads of
state around the world around that somehow he's going to
start losing credibility if they ignore him. And I think
that that is a concern for the prestige of the
(24:10):
United States, our power abroad, and how foreign leaders will
approach us in the future when we really do need
to solve intractable problems.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
Well, yeah, Rick mentions Gaza Genie, the president's old time magazine,
Saudi Arabia will go into the Abraham Accords. That will happen.
He went on to say something really interesting. Last time
I was fighting for survival, he said, this time, I'm
fighting for the world. This is a man with a
different motivation than in the first term. Isn't it a
(24:41):
different purpose?
Speaker 11 (24:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (24:43):
You know, I think actually his purpose is the same.
I mean, this is somebody who believes in executive power.
He is somebody who believes that he should have more
of it constitutionally, and if not, he's going to do
everything Kim to take it. What I think has change
hinged in this Journald Trump two point zero is the
people around him and the fact that they had four
(25:06):
years to make these plans. You know, we're going to
use a.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Coarclay,
and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on
demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live
on YouTube.
Speaker 9 (25:49):
I think it's going to get harder as we go on.
And if I could say, I think one thing he
gets credit for which Democrats should learn from is announcing
he's going to talk to Jeff Goldberg from the Atlantic yesterday.
You know, somebody who famously will talk to anybody at
any time. He's got to come right over to Bloomberg
(26:09):
and talk to you guys. And that is one thing
democrats learned from. Talk to everybody, because he says, you know,
I'll just try to change their minds. They're going to
write about me. I'll go into the lions Den and
Democrats have to learn from that. It's one mark of
what a good politician he is. But I don't think
he's proven to be as good as a policymaker or
a governor.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Rick, we have less than a minute left here, but
when asked about the expansion of executive power, the President
repeatedly suggested in this interview, he's just doing what he
was elected to do. Is he necessarily wrong on that?
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (26:43):
I think his point that he's just making good on
these campaign promises is not wrong. He talked about most
of the things that he's doing, and at the time
we kept saying, Wow, what a crazy idea that is.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
And yet here we are, Rick Davis and Genie Schanzano
our political panel, joining us throughout all of it as
we approach the one hundred day mark, and of course
on this Friday, thank you for joining us here on
Balance of Power, and we'll dig more into the war
in Ukraine and the efforts to end it next. Right
here on Bloomberg TV and Tredia.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's durn
on apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
With headlines coming from Air Force One. President Trump is
on his way to Rome right now for the papal
funeral tomorrow. In just crossing the terminal with tariffs in mind,
we've talked a lot this hour about tariffs and China, Kaylee.
The President says he won't drop China tariffs unless they
give us something, as the quote opening up China would
be a big win. He says, markets are adjusting to tariffs.
(28:00):
So we're going to be talking with Mara Rudman about
the standoff with China and other trading partners when it
comes to tariffs, the impact on the economy and the markets.
But it does seem like Wall Street is feeling a
lot better about things today than they were on Monday.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Well, and certainly Romaine Bostik knows that well, co host
of Bloomberg The Globes, who happens to be here in
Washington today and is joining us now in studio remain.
When the President says markets are adjusting to tariffs, is
it an adjustment we have seen this week? Is that
how you would characterize it.
Speaker 12 (28:27):
I'm not sure they're adjusting to tariffs, but they are
adjusting to the messaging. And I mean you talk about
how this week has kind of been bookended, right, I mean,
you had some relatively reassuring comments out of Scott Bessend
down here in the imf IF meetings that seemed to
actually sue the market the idea that maybe there is
going to be a little bit more of a slow
walk on some of this stuff and more accommodation for
(28:47):
Wall Street and their concerns, for Corporate America and their concerns.
But then, of course, as you get towards the end
of the week, you start to get additional comments like this,
what is the relationship with China right now?
Speaker 6 (28:56):
What are negotiations like?
Speaker 12 (28:58):
You know, you get these comments from China basically say hey,
we're not going to do anything until you show us
more respect. So if you're a trader or even a
long term investor, do you adjust right now?
Speaker 4 (29:06):
Right? Well, that's the question. I said. I can't believe
we got you to come back down here waiting to
the spot.
Speaker 12 (29:11):
This is this is a moment, you know, and I
hear congresses back next week too.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
That's true, and that you're going to get out of here.
Speaker 6 (29:17):
Just that's supposed to be the good part for the market.
And Kay, well, yeah, exactly. The budget.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
Think about that.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
When you just said the connection, the influence that Washington
is having on Wall Street, it's not isolated to the
tariff conversation. We're going to get actually into deeper waters
with reconciliation and the debt ceiling. What's the market do
we good? Then retrace our lows and freak out all
over again.
Speaker 12 (29:37):
So I spoke with the analyst yesterday, so right now
they're kind of looking towards late May, saying that, look,
if we get to Memorial Day and we start to
either see a deal in Congress or at least enough
progress towards a deal, that could be a big upside
catalyst for the market.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
Yeah.
Speaker 12 (29:50):
Conversely, if we don't see evidence of that, he's saying
that that could be the pillar, because you have a
market right now long term that is betting that all
of the short term pain that we've seen over the
last months, that that can maybe be remedied if we
do get more pro growth, pro business tax friendly policies
out of the White House and Congress over the next
few months.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
The question I continually have about that, though, is if
largely most of this policy is going to be an
extension of existing policy, where is that stimulus supposed to
kick in.
Speaker 12 (30:19):
Really, I'm not sure, and I'm not sure there is
economic stimulus. But if you pay attention to earnings, a
lot of these companies have found ways to navigate so far,
not necessarily on top line revenue growth. If you look
at analy assessments revenue growth for the S ANDP as
a hole, it's basically going to be flat, but you
are seeing strength on the bottom line, so a lot
of cost cutting, productivity improvements, things like that. That might
be the saving grace for corporate America, which then becomes
(30:41):
a saving grace potentially for the markets, and maybe that
feeds into the broader economy.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
It's been watching gold sync up a little bit with
bitcoin recently. When we talk to you, we tend to
hit on these after the bell. I want you to
share with our viewers and listeners. This is going to
seem rope for you, but to share with our viewers
and listeners how you scope the market What are the
six things that you look at to find out the
state that the market is in right now.
Speaker 12 (31:03):
Well, obviously everything going on in FX, so pay attention
to the dollar, particularly the correlations with the Canadian, the Mexican,
as well as the European currencies, particularly the Swiss frank.
Speaker 6 (31:16):
The other thing is the swaps market.
Speaker 12 (31:17):
It gets a little esoteric, but these are the basically
the traders who are out there determining where they think
the next rate cuts will be, where they think the
next the puck is going on the economy.
Speaker 6 (31:26):
They've been out ahead of this a lot.
Speaker 12 (31:28):
They've been right both to the upside and the downside
over the last few months in a lot of these situations.
So those are probably the two primary areas. The other thing,
and I really stress this a lot, is pay attention
to what these CEOs say over the next few couple
of weeks. In corporate America, one hundred and eighty companies
reporting next week, and it's the biggies, you know, the Amazons,
Microsoft's gms of the world. What happened last quarter is irrelevant,
(31:49):
but what they say about the quarters going forward, or
if they say anything at all, you might find more
insight from that than you do the actual hard data.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
Well, yeah, we're always watching those earnings calls, especially for
tech companies that the President says remain he's willing to
be flexible with. He's talking to Tim Cook whenever he's
asked about exemptions. It's a suggestion that he's going to
take that under consideration. Could we see actual light shed
on that, not from the White House but on the
corporate side.
Speaker 6 (32:13):
Possibly.
Speaker 12 (32:14):
And look, there has been some pretty good reporting from Bloomberg,
from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal about
some of the CEOs that had apparently gotten Trump's ear
There was a lot of talk about the retail ceo
is going to Trump earlier this week and making it
clear that they were going to be hurt.
Speaker 6 (32:27):
And you're hearing other industries do that as well.
Speaker 4 (32:29):
Fascinating. Romaine Boston in the Flash.
Speaker 6 (32:31):
Yeah, I think this first time I've been here.
Speaker 4 (32:33):
Is that true? All right? Yeah?
Speaker 6 (32:35):
So I get to keep this. Is this like a souvenir?
Speaker 4 (32:37):
Yeah, that's just a prop.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
By the way, every guest gets to take the microphone
with them. Maybe we'll see on the late edition of
Balance of Power. The Great Roman remain Bostik in the
nation's capital. We've seen it all this week on IMF week.
You never know who's going to show up around here,
including Mara Rudman. We want to get into not only
the debate over teriffs, the geopolitical debate here in Washington
right now as well when it comes to peace in UK.
(33:00):
Steve Whitkoff sat down. It was apparently a three hour
meeting this time with Vladimir Putin. I think they had
six hours the first time around. Almost nobody else was
in the room, so it's very difficult to have a
sense of where we are in this process. We did
hear though from President Trump in the Oval yesterday about
communications with Russia.
Speaker 5 (33:17):
Listen, put in a lot of pressure. You don't know
what pressure I'm putting on Russia.
Speaker 4 (33:20):
They're dealing.
Speaker 5 (33:22):
You have no idea what pressure I'm putting on Russia.
We're putting a lot of pressure. We're putting a lot
of pressure on Russia, and Russia knows that, and some
people that are close to it know, or he wouldn't
be talking.
Speaker 3 (33:36):
That's where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Mara Rudman,
professor at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, former US
diplomat Mara. I want to start with the meeting today
and Steve Whitkoff making a return appearance in Moscow, sitting
down with Vladimir Putin behind closed doors and no one
else representing the United States aside from an aid from
what we could see in the video here you go,
(33:58):
if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on U
you see him walking into the room, shaking hands with
Vladimir Putin and they sit down at this massive white
table without many people around that table. They're getting to
know themselves each other on a personal level. Here, Marrow,
what does it mean for the path for peace?
Speaker 11 (34:17):
Well, it concerns me greatly that they are having one
on one or close to one on one meetings. Steve
Whitkoff needs whether or not he believes that himself to
have the knowledge and experience of those who have had
to deal with Vladimir Putin over the decades across Republican
(34:37):
and democratic administrations, and he appears to be operating without that.
And the statements he's made publicly are deeply concerning. That
he made prior to this meeting about how he viewed
Vladimir Putin. And you can be sure that Putin very
clearly has Witkoff's number, literally, probably in terms of what
(35:00):
we know about the lack of security and operational security
of this administration, but also just in terms of his
profile and what it's going to take to essentially get
the better of him. So it concerns me deeply.
Speaker 9 (35:12):
Well.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Bloomberg reported yesterday Mara that part of what Witkoff was
going to present to Putin today were things that the
US would like Russia to agree to in a deal,
including accepting Ukraine have its own military and defense industry.
But Kurt Vulker, who worked on Ukraine negotiations during the
first Trump administration, was with US on Balance of Power
last night, and he said, the suggestion that this is
(35:34):
a concession from Russia, which is the invading country here
is a mischaracterization of it. That no such concessions can
really exist. And I wonder if you think about that
in the same way, or do you think the US
is asking Russia to swallow something that it might not
be willing to otherwise if it wasn't the Trump administration negotiating.
Speaker 5 (35:54):
No.
Speaker 11 (35:55):
I agree very much with what Kurt Volkler said, and
I would just want to Kur as the kind of
expert that Steve Witkoff and the administration would benefit from hearing,
from listening to in terms of the depth and breadth
of his experience with these actors. And so that is
one of the many things that concerns me. I think
(36:17):
it is obviously critical for Ukraine to keep its military ability,
but the idea that that's a major concession that the
United States is proposing to Russia is just another indication
I think of the in bounce with which the United
States is dealing with Russia and Ukraine in trying to resolve.
Speaker 3 (36:34):
This Mara, how do you read this back and forth
over China right now? President Trump suggesting daily communication between
the two sides. He says President she has called him.
Beijing says none of that is true.
Speaker 4 (36:49):
What should we take from that?
Speaker 11 (36:52):
I think we can take that neither actor who's making
these proclamations would be the place I'd go to for
truth telling at any point. So it's tough to know
understand what discussions have actually occurred.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I aw, you don't find that the administration in the
White House is more credit worthy, more truthful than the
regime in Beijing.
Speaker 11 (37:16):
Sadly, I do not.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
I guess that really answers the question about how you
read into this. Do you think that there will be
a meeting between President Trump and she.
Speaker 11 (37:29):
I would not be surprised if there was, And I
also don't know if there have been conversations between them
or not. Clearly, China is very comfortable putting out that
there have been no trade negotiations, and President Trump, we know,
is sometimes very loose, I can say charitably with his
(37:50):
characterizations of conversations or the content thereof. President Trump also
said I believe yesterday that he has agreements with two
hunts two hundred different trade agreements and needs one hundred
percent certain on that. And that's a somewhat baffling statement
to make, given that I'd believe there are ninety sets
of negotiations ongoing or contemplated at this point. So reliability
(38:16):
of information is a huge challenge right now on extraordinarily
sensitive issues that go to our economic and national security.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
Well, I'd like to ask you about another one of
those sensitive issues or areas, because the President was just
speaking with reporters on Air Force one. Mara'd answered some
questions about Iran specifically, He said the Iran situation is
coming out very well, that he'd rather have a deal
with Iran than the alternative, and he says the deal
is very simple. They can't have a nuclear weapon. Are
(38:46):
you optimistic that there can be an actual deal inked
with Iran? And how close could it look to the
original deal from the Obama administration.
Speaker 11 (38:54):
Yeah?
Speaker 7 (38:55):
So.
Speaker 11 (38:56):
I President Trump has a history of denigrating agreements and
then make new agreements that very much resemble them. See
NAFTA and then the subsequent agreement with Canada and Mexico
and the JCPOA agreement between Iran and the Europeans and
the United States would be another example of that. I
(39:19):
will say here, I think there are several avenues that
point to potential promising outcomes in terms of these negotiations.
And by promising outcomes, I mean getting a better handle
again on Iran's nuclear activity and forestalling military action against Iran.
(39:40):
I think that's what the Saudis want, That's what other
key players in the region with whom President Trump is
working closely, are looking toward. And I think the question
will be again the skill of the negotiators on both sides.
And here again I'm concerned about the leading role that
Steve Woodkoff has.
Speaker 4 (39:57):
It's only got a minute left, Maria.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
Fifty heads of state will gather in Rome in the
next twenty four hours for the Pope's funeral. President Trump
will be there. He and the First Lady will essentially
be leaving as soon as it's done, which means likely
no meeting with President Zelenski.
Speaker 4 (40:14):
Is that a missed opportunity.
Speaker 11 (40:18):
I think there are several. There are so many opportunities
that have been missed by President Trump. I will say
that I think it's important in terms of him going
to the funeral of the Pope to honor the memory
of Pope Francis and to focus on that. I'm a
little concerned about the amount that he has been talking
about opportunities for various side meetings, because it's a solemn moment,
(40:41):
and its an important moment to honor the memory of
a man who really has had a tremendous impact and
has a tremendous legacy for the world to respect.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
Indeed, mar Rudmand thanks for joining us professor at the
University of Virginia's Miller Center. Also former US diplomat.
Speaker 3 (41:03):
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at
Bloomberg dot com
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
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Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Eighty seven months in prism sentence for George Santos. Remember
there was a time, Joe in Washington where George Santos
was like the most scandalous thing we could possibly be
talking about, captured all the attention in the headlines. It
feels like we have a story like that now at
least once a day, if not.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
That seems a bit quaint at this point of reporters
running through hallways trying to get him on the record,
doors being slammed. He was speaking pretty existentially from the heart,
I guess, to the New York Times, talking about how
he came into this world alone and he will deal
with this alone.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Eighty seven months.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
That's a pretty remarkable sentence for the former congressman from
New York.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, and of course we talk a lot less about
George Santos these days, not just because he's no longer
a member of the House of Representatives, but because other
issues have caught the attention of Washington in the world
predominantly of course, focused on issues like trade as well
as geopolitical conflict, and the President, who likes to see
himself as deal maker in chief, trying to make deals
on all of these different fronts with trading partners but
(01:22):
also with adversaries and allies when it comes to ending
the war in Ukraine, for example, and he touched on
both when speaking to reporters before his departure for Rome
earlier today.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
I'm getting along very well with your fan.
Speaker 5 (01:34):
On We're very close to a deal leeting with Puttin
right now as we speak, and we.
Speaker 6 (01:40):
Have a lot of things.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Going on, and I think.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
In the end we're going to end up with a
lot of.
Speaker 5 (01:43):
Good deals, including tariff Dale's and trade deals.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
This is where we start with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, who
is at the White House right now as the President
first Lady make their way to Rome.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
She's on the north lawn with the latest Tyler.
Speaker 7 (01:58):
Yeah, hey, Joe. Well, one of the themes that we
are tracking here, of course, the trade talks. You heard
President Trump there say that there has been good progress
with Japan, and he also has been talking about how
he has been speaking with China's President E Jijing Ping.
Caylee mentioned at the top there at the time magazine
interview which was released today but actually conducted on Tuesday,
where he said that he was called by the Chinese president. Now, however,
(02:21):
he didn't give us many details, didn't give us a
timeline or what was discussed, and reporters tried to pin
him down on it when he was heading out towards
Marine One, asking if this call had taken place since
his tariff announcement and take a listen to what he
had to say here When he was asked.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
You said, you've spoke with President k Have you spoken
to him since the terrans?
Speaker 5 (02:40):
I don't want to comment on that, but I've spoken
to him many times. Yeah, I'll let you know at
the appropriate time. Let's say, if we can make a deal.
Speaker 7 (02:49):
Well, when it comes to a deal, President Trump has
reiterated that he thinks that one hundred and forty five
percent levy on Chinese goods is very high amounts to
a trade in bargo, which has prompted some optimism that
that rate could come down in that Time magazine interview.
He did say that he knew what the rate was
that Beijing would be comfortable with, and has previously floated
that in the next two to three weeks we could
(03:10):
actually see a revised rate. It does come on the
heels of some Bloomberg News reporting earlier today that China
is potentially getting ready to exempt some US goods from tariffs.
This includes particular sectors where Beijing is more import reliance,
such as medical equipment or industrial chemicals that are used
to make things like plastics or cooling agents or reporting
also indicates that potentially a plane leases could be exempt
(03:33):
from tariffs too, So sort of a wide range here
as Beijing tries to shore up its own support for
its economy amid what has become a tip for trade war.
But Joe and Kelly sources familiar do caution Bloomberg News
that everything is still very much in flux as we
try to piece together where trade talks are really headed.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Well, and that goes not just for China, but trade
negotiations with our dozens of trading partners. As we're still
looking for any deal to emerge. Tyler, do we have
a sensus to whether or not even just within the timeframe.
The President has a lot in himself for this trip
to Rome that any conversations with European leaders, for example,
on trade will be happening well.
Speaker 7 (04:09):
He was asked directly that Kylie whether or not he
would be taking meetings. He did say he was, but
of course this is a very short timeline. Here really
remains to be seen if there will be any sort
of policides when it comes to this. There are, of
course those countries that we know that have been getting
priority when it does come to these talks with Taragery
Secretary Scott Besson in the Oval Office yesterday saying that
South Korea the timeline for a potential trade deal with
(04:31):
them is actually faster than he intended. He said that
we could see an agreement of understanding, as he called it,
with the technical details worked out as soon as next week.
That sort of falls in line with some rhetoric that
we've heard for other trading partners that have been prioritized,
including Japan and also importantly India. After Vice President Jade
Vance visited the country over the weekend, we had to
(04:51):
read out from the USTR saying that they had finalized
a roadmap towards an agreement. That's sort of what we
have been hearing from this administration that we're going to
start to see these frames works rolled out as this
White House really tries to show that they are making
progress on these deals, all right, with one hundred day
mark looming next week. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live at the
White House for us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Thank you so much. And it does sound, Joe that
for all of the optimism that markets seem to a founder,
at the very least the sigh of relief they seem
to be breathing this week, that so far we haven't
gotten much more material than maybe a softening of rhetoric
on the margins and also agreement to eventually agree to something,
but not actually those final ink deals.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Far from this kind of goes back to Tuesday. We're
still trading off of the de escalate remarking away from
Scott Bessen, which was behind closed doors. And I know
that the President has suggested maybe a drive to be
more kind in negotiations with China, but it is interesting
to see a bit under the market here with very
little fact to base it on. Maybe there's some bottom
feeding going on. We'll know more about this after it happens.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Yeah, well, and we'll hopefully know more about it after
speaking to Christopher Smart about it. He's with us here
in our Washington, d C. Studio, managing partner in our
Growth Group and former special Assistant to the President in
international economics during the Obama administration, here with us on
balance of Power. Good to see you. Thank you for
coming in. I wonder, as you consider the kind of
tone shift we have seen this week, or sentiment shift
(06:15):
at the very least, if you think there's enough materially
fundamentally that has changed here to back that up.
Speaker 8 (06:22):
Well, I think the bouncing in the market that we've
seen is a reflection of just how much investors, I think,
are grasping at any sign of slightly more certainty where
we're headed, whether it's on tariffs, whether it's on negotiations.
You know, if the fact, as you were pointing out, Joe,
that an announcement of an intention to make an agreement
about a memory of an understanding moves the market, that's
(06:44):
how bad things are. I wasn't actually in this meeting
when Secretary of Beston talked about de escalation talked about
the need for one side to climb down. I think
he didn't assume that it was going to be the
United States climbing down. But I think investors mostly expect
that if we're going to have some agreement this quickly.
These are trade agreements that are very complicated and take
(07:06):
months and years to really negotiate and hammer out. But
if we're going to come down, if we're going to
strike a deal very quickly, it means it's going to
be something of less substance.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Well, that's really interesting because the President said, you know,
with the idea of a trade deal as best and
himself suggest it could take two or three years. The
President said we could have new rates, new tariff rates
for China in two to three weeks. Is that the
US climbing down? And does that make you feel more hopeful?
Speaker 6 (07:30):
Well? I would.
Speaker 8 (07:31):
I don't want to contradict the President, but it does
seem hard to believe that that's what we're going to
be doing. The confusion in the market right now is
nobody expects that one hundred and forty five percent tariffs
can be permanent. And I think worth hearing that, and
that was reassuring to people because it's just not sustainable.
Speaker 4 (07:48):
It is an.
Speaker 8 (07:49):
Embargo effectively, as Secretary Besson said, But the real question
is will we have more certainty on the other side
of things? And you know, there is a world in
which you look through the fall and there's a budget deal,
the debt limit is behind us, and we have half
a dozen of these framework agreements in place, and so
you know what kind of range we're dealing with, and
that's a much better world. But the question is is
(08:12):
that the new steady state or do new things get
put on the table?
Speaker 4 (08:16):
Well?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
And as you suggest this idea that no one thinks
we're going to stay at one hundred and forty five
percent forever, I wonder how much can change though, even
if that no longer remains the rate in terms of
our fundamental relationship with China. Knowing already there was an
effort to diversify supply chains away from China because of
the scars of the pandemic, you have news today Apple
is going to look for all of the iPhones it
sells in the US to be made in India by
(08:37):
the end of next year. Changes are already underway. Can
we ever really revert back to any kind of at
least what was the norm.
Speaker 8 (08:45):
No, I think the old norms have been broken, and
I think we are moving into a new kind of arrangement.
What that really looks like in the end is hard
to predict, but I think it is, you know, a
decoupling of sorts. We used to tell companies that you
need a China plus strategy, so you should build a
factory in China and then one outside of China. I
think companies are now looking at a US plus one
(09:06):
strategy where they have to you know, the India deal.
I'm sorry, the India announcement at Apple is to bring
product into the US from India rather than from China.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Well, this is all happening with financial ministers and leaders
from around the world coming to Washington for the Spring
meetings of IMF World Bank.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
This is a peculiar moment for all of this to
be unfolding.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
We're talking about what Scott Besson said behind closed doors
this week. There's a lot of conversations happening behind closed doors,
and I wonder what you can share with us. What
are you hearing that didn't get into the front page
or onto the Bloomberg terminal when it comes to concern
when it comes to uncertainty. What is the general feeling
with world leaders this week?
Speaker 8 (09:47):
Well, I think the measure of how grim things are
is that the session that I was in on the
Middle East is the most optimistic that we might have
an Iran deal. And that could really go a long
way to imagine saying that months ago. But it gives
you a sense of the uncertain about everything else. Yeah,
whether it's Russia or China, or US policy or indeed,
(10:09):
a lot of our foreign friends are really looking at
what's happening in the court system, what's happening in the
regulatory system. Lots of questions about the FED until the
President backed off on that, and a real sense of
is the United States the same business model that we've
all come to love and invest in over the last
several decades. Those things don't change overnight. It takes years
(10:29):
for things to change dramatically. But the things that made
the US so consistently innovative, dynamic, and able to grow
so quickly are people are questioning.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
I'm glad you raised the FED too, because as we
consider what changed this week, we did start the week
not knowing if the President intended to fire the FED chair,
and then he said he had no intention, never had
any intention of that. So maybe clarity on that issue
at least for now, Christopher, But he still maintains, even
if he's not going to try to oust Pale, that
he thinks Palell needs to move now, that he risks
being too late. And I wonder what the economic picture
(11:04):
you are seeing if you think there might actually be
some merit in that argument that monetary policy simply isn't
going to be able to react quickly enough to whatever
it is we're heading into.
Speaker 8 (11:13):
Well, I think my view, and I think the view
of a lot of investors that I talk to, is
that the best thing you can do right now is
to sit tight. You probably want to you certainly don't
want to think about raising rates right now, but you
want to know what where that level where the steady
state is going to settle. I mean, if you could
sort of start knowing where tariffs will be and start
(11:35):
modeling that and sort of thinking through where that will
feed through to either inflation or slow in growth, that's
one thing to do, but you don't know where that's
going to settle, and the President isn't helping things unfortunately.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
What it do damage to the fed's image if we
did get a cut right now, I think, in a way,
what if Ja Pallis said, okay, twenty five bases stop calling.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
What would be the market reaction.
Speaker 8 (11:55):
I think it would probably be positive for a day
and a half, but overall negatived and trust I think
it starts to undermine the Fed's credibility, because you know,
we've had the FED. It's been remarkable through all of
our political discord. I don't think anybody credibly attacks the
FED for being politically motivated one way or the other
over the last several years. The unfortunate thing right now
(12:17):
is whoever is nominated to replace j.
Speaker 4 (12:19):
Powell next year is going.
Speaker 8 (12:21):
To come with a sort of a shadow of suspicion
of what kind of a deal did they did they
strike to get the job?
Speaker 4 (12:27):
Not a shadow chair, which we've talked about before.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, that's certainly an idea that has been floated at
this table by the now Treasury Secretary of stant actually
of all people, to this notion of credibility. Though it's
one thing to consider the Fed's credibility, it's another thing
to consider just the credibility of the United States. We
have a new story out on the terminal today looking
at the dollar could be the worst first one hundred
days the dollar is seen since the Nixon administration. We
(12:51):
all have been paying attention to what's been happening in
the bond market, and we haven't even really started the
debt ceiling fight yet, Christopher, which we have to look
forward to in the next few months. Do you see
a serious risk of an undermining of the credit worthiness
of the United States or the view of credit worthiness
of full faith and credit.
Speaker 8 (13:07):
Well, as you know, credit worthiness is incremental and goes
their shades of gray. I don't think things are you know,
I don't think things are about to fall apart. I
think the dollar is still the royals reserve currency for
a long time, given the lack of alternatives.
Speaker 4 (13:21):
But we clearly haven't done ourselves any good.
Speaker 8 (13:23):
And it is one of those things on the margin
where I think investors start looking at the US business model,
they go back. Portfolio managers are going back to meet
with their investment committees over the next few months, and
they're going to say, what's our exposure to the US
sixty seventy percent, Let's just take that down five or
ten for now it's going to be a brave portfolio
manager who goes to his credit committee and says, let's
just double down on the US because we think they've
(13:44):
got something good going on right now.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
I wonder your thoughts in our remaining couple of minutes
here on a series of unilateral deals emerging here we're
talking frameworks.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
Let's say they do emerge as deals.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
This seems to be a best case scenario for Wall
Street right now, but it's a pretty darn confusing mess
to consider how this White House could negotiate them all simultaneously,
and how they would all potentially argue with each other
in the end. Do you worry about that patchwork being
the final product here?
Speaker 8 (14:11):
I think it's a big worry right now. I guess
the glib answer to your question is maybe.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
AI will help them negotiate all of you. Maybe, but
I think it is.
Speaker 8 (14:20):
I mean, actually that's probably the encouraging outcome, because as
long as you don't have a single principle you have
to apply to all of your negotiating partners, you can
cut separate deals and then investors can understand what the
rules will be. But it is certainly a different framework
and it's not the more integrated, free or flowing goods
and financial.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
Rewriting of supply chain.
Speaker 8 (14:42):
That's the rewriting the supply chains, and it's a shifting
of the system and the rules we've.
Speaker 4 (14:45):
Been used to since the end of the Cold War.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
Well remarkable, Christopher Smart on IMF week with us here
in Washington. It's a treat to have you with us.
It's great to be here at the desk. I hope
we can do this again. Sometimes it's behind the scenes
and some pretty interesting conversations, including the one we just
had here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew alongside
Kaylee Lines in Washington. We're just getting started. We have
to assemble our panel next. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno
are with us on another busy day in Washington with
(15:09):
their eyes on Rome. Four am for the papal funeral tomorrow,
and the President looks like is coming straight back.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Yes, indeed, that is what's on the schedule. Of course,
it'll be four am for us. It will be later
on more appropriate time of the morning, but still only
I think eight hours after the President is scheduled to
land in Europe. So it is a tight turnaround. Indeed,
we'll have more ahead here. On Bloomberg TV Radio.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on
Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Fourth update in a row, could actually turn out to
be a pretty good week four risk assets, even in
the face of still a lot of questions remaining on
the fate of US trade policy and of trade negotiations.
We've heard from President Trump a few times about this today,
including as of course he boarded or it was heading
to Rome. He just spoke with reporters on Air Force one,
once again saying that countries have been unfair to the
(16:13):
US when it comes to trade. But he also spent
a good deal of time talking with Time magazine about
his trade policy, suggesting in this interview, which took place
a few days ago on April twenty second, that there's
been some two hundred trade deals that he's done, though
none have been announced, but he suggests this whole thing
could be wrapped up in three to four weeks.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
A lot of countries.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
It is a lot.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
He also said that China's President Xi Jimping has called
him yes, and that his administration is in active talks
with Chinese to strike a deal, and we've talked about this,
that he was asked about this a couple times this week.
Lutnik and other senior administration officials referring to the Commerce
Secretary Howard Lutnik confirmed the talks, which Beijing disputes. So
we're still not actually sure if they're on the phone call.
Speaker 2 (16:58):
Yeah, we heard the President once again this morning saying
he's talked to she multiple times, but he wouldn't say when,
wouldn't say if it was since the implementation of these tariffs.
We do know they did speak a few days ahead
of his inauguration back in January, but there has been
no confirmation of a phone call since then.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
We'll play this to the panel and get their thoughts
on this, because we are at an interesting moment here
with the President airborne on his way to Rome, lawmakers
still at home, and our chance to talk about some
important issues with our panel. Rick Davis is here, a
Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside our
democratic strategist Genie Shanzino, political science professor at Iona University.
Speaker 4 (17:35):
It's great to see you both here. Genie.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
I've been asking since Donald Trump said on the Oval
Office that they quote unquote were meeting and he wasn't
going to suggest or reveal he said who they were
or was, does it matter at what level these talks
are happening.
Speaker 9 (17:52):
Well, it sure does, you know. I mean, it's not
a great day for the United States when we have
to have our pre isn't corrected by the Chinese Foreign
Ministry saying, you know, don't exaggerate, tell the truth, be clear,
and that's essentially what we're getting. I mean, you just
mentioned the two hundred deals. We don't know how that
(18:13):
could be with less than that many countries in the world.
But apparently he's talking about something else. So you know,
this is typical Donald Trump. He's excited about his first
hundred days overstating numbers. And the fact is people are
really dependent for their lives on the truth of many
of these things, and so these overstatements become sort of
(18:35):
silly in a way, but also problematic in a serious.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
Way well and Rick, when we consider that China is
openly contesting the suggestions by President Trump that negotiations are happening,
putting it out there for the world to see, does
that do anything to undermined undermine the President's credibility knowing
that we often sometimes approach with skepticism certain characterization he
(19:00):
makes or statements that he makes.
Speaker 10 (19:03):
Yeah, look, I mean we've learned for a long time
that you have to take everything that Donald Trump tells
you with a grain of salt.
Speaker 11 (19:10):
Right.
Speaker 10 (19:10):
He even admits to hyperbole on virtually every issue that
he ever comes out of his mouth. So it's pretty
dark days when you have to rely on China, known
for its propaganda and use of distraction as a foreign
policy tool, to get the straight dope. I don't trust
(19:30):
either one of them. I mean, you know, I'll believe
it when I see it, and I think in this case,
to you know, try to follow the spin, you know.
I mean, we went from ninety deals in ninety days
to one hundred and twenty five countries have terrace on him,
to two hundred deals are going to be announced. I mean,
(19:51):
I just want to know who's negotiating with the penguins
on Hurd Island, because that's what I'm watching for real success.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
That's true, they are still facing pretty high tariffs. He
got into a national security in geopolitics.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
In this interview.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
They talked for about an hour, and again Kayley mentions
this took place on April twenty second. Geni talked about
Ukraine and blamed Kiev for starting the war. Quote, I
think what caused the war to start was when they
started talking about joining NATO unquote. The negotiated pece he
is pursuing would of course give Ladim refruitin some twenty
(20:27):
percent of Ukrainian territory. As Time magazine points out, the
president said, quote crimea will stay with Russia unquote. What
do you make of these comments to a publication in
the throes of peace talks.
Speaker 9 (20:43):
Yeah, I mean it's a sad moment for the United
States and for democracy around the world that we have
now a president in office. I give him credit, by
the way, for trying to negotiate a deal, but not
just that he's talking about it, but that he is
blaming a sovereign country been invaded. And you look at
those horrific pictures from the last seventy two hours of
(21:05):
the absolute violence that Russia has, you know, over the
air and on the ground in Kiev, on you know,
in the heart of Europe. And to have an American president,
the leading democracy in the world, say crimea is gone
and to blame the victim is just utterly appalling. But
(21:26):
it's in keeping with so much in this conversation that
is stunning. I mean, they ask him at one point
about a quote from John Adams, does he believe we
are a government of laws and not of men? And
he says no, I wouldn't agree to that one hundred percent.
And he goes on to talk about why that is.
You know, this is the president we're dealing with, and
(21:48):
he's hiding behind the fact that he ran on these things.
But he is also, if you look at the polls,
losing support on a lot of what he's pursuing here.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
Well, and when we consider the geopolitical part of this interview, Rick,
when he was talking about a deal with Ukraine, the
journalist questioned him on his repeated insistence on the campaign
trail that he could end the war in a day,
and he suggested in his answer that he was just
exaggerating that no one should have expected him to end
(22:19):
the war in the day in a day to get
back to kind of what we were discussing about his
rhetoric here, But is that also an admission that this
particular negotiation with Steve Witkoff dispatched again to the Kremlin
today to meet with Putin is much harder than he
thought walking in.
Speaker 10 (22:37):
Yeah. Look, I mean I think Donald Trump, whether you
think it's a superpower or a significant problem, simplifies every
complicated world problem into the basic elements that he wants
to talk about. And so from his perspective, why in
the world would anybody want to continue killing each other
(23:00):
with no apparent success on either side. So in his mind,
you know, offer a deal that stops the killing, which
he must have repeated a thousand times on the campaign trail,
and everyone's going to take that deal. It is a
surprise to him. I have no doubt that there are
more intransient issues than life and death on the front
lines of Ukraine and Russia at work here. I think
(23:24):
he's found the same thing. We've kind of quit talking
about it, but same thing applies to piece in Gaza.
He's made many statements along the campaign trail, and since
president he was going to wrap that up in no time.
Nobody's going to oppose his will, and it's only gotten
worse there. He told Putin to stop attacks. Yesterday and
overnight we had more suicide drone attacks launched from Russia
(23:48):
onto Ukraine. I mean, he needs to start to be
concerned that by making these declarations to ordering heads of
state around the world around that somehow he's going to
start losing credibility if they ignore him. And I think
that that is a concern for the prestige of the
(24:10):
United States, our power abroad, and how foreign leaders will
approach us in the future when we really do need
to solve intractable problems.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
Well, yeah, Rick mentions Gaza Genie, the president's old time magazine,
Saudi Arabia will go into the Abraham Accords. That will happen.
He went on to say something really interesting. Last time
I was fighting for survival, he said, this time, I'm
fighting for the world. This is a man with a
different motivation than in the first term. Isn't it a
(24:41):
different purpose?
Speaker 11 (24:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (24:43):
You know, I think actually his purpose is the same.
I mean, this is somebody who believes in executive power.
He is somebody who believes that he should have more
of it constitutionally, and if not, he's going to do
everything Kim to take it. What I think has change
hinged in this Journald Trump two point zero is the
people around him and the fact that they had four
(25:06):
years to make these plans. You know, we're going to
use a.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Coarclay,
and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on
demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live
on YouTube.
Speaker 9 (25:49):
I think it's going to get harder as we go on.
And if I could say, I think one thing he
gets credit for which Democrats should learn from is announcing
he's going to talk to Jeff Goldberg from the Atlantic yesterday.
You know, somebody who famously will talk to anybody at
any time. He's got to come right over to Bloomberg
(26:09):
and talk to you guys. And that is one thing
democrats learned from. Talk to everybody, because he says, you know,
I'll just try to change their minds. They're going to
write about me. I'll go into the lions Den and
Democrats have to learn from that. It's one mark of
what a good politician he is. But I don't think
he's proven to be as good as a policymaker or
a governor.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Rick, we have less than a minute left here, but
when asked about the expansion of executive power, the President
repeatedly suggested in this interview, he's just doing what he
was elected to do. Is he necessarily wrong on that?
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (26:43):
I think his point that he's just making good on
these campaign promises is not wrong. He talked about most
of the things that he's doing, and at the time
we kept saying, Wow, what a crazy idea that is.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
And yet here we are, Rick Davis and Genie Schanzano
our political panel, joining us throughout all of it as
we approach the one hundred day mark, and of course
on this Friday, thank you for joining us here on
Balance of Power, and we'll dig more into the war
in Ukraine and the efforts to end it next. Right
here on Bloomberg TV and Tredia.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's durn
on apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
With headlines coming from Air Force One. President Trump is
on his way to Rome right now for the papal
funeral tomorrow. In just crossing the terminal with tariffs in mind,
we've talked a lot this hour about tariffs and China, Kaylee.
The President says he won't drop China tariffs unless they
give us something, as the quote opening up China would
be a big win. He says, markets are adjusting to tariffs.
(28:00):
So we're going to be talking with Mara Rudman about
the standoff with China and other trading partners when it
comes to tariffs, the impact on the economy and the markets.
But it does seem like Wall Street is feeling a
lot better about things today than they were on Monday.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Well, and certainly Romaine Bostik knows that well, co host
of Bloomberg The Globes, who happens to be here in
Washington today and is joining us now in studio remain.
When the President says markets are adjusting to tariffs, is
it an adjustment we have seen this week? Is that
how you would characterize it.
Speaker 12 (28:27):
I'm not sure they're adjusting to tariffs, but they are
adjusting to the messaging. And I mean you talk about
how this week has kind of been bookended, right, I mean,
you had some relatively reassuring comments out of Scott Bessend
down here in the imf IF meetings that seemed to
actually sue the market the idea that maybe there is
going to be a little bit more of a slow
walk on some of this stuff and more accommodation for
(28:47):
Wall Street and their concerns, for Corporate America and their concerns.
But then, of course, as you get towards the end
of the week, you start to get additional comments like this,
what is the relationship with China right now?
Speaker 6 (28:56):
What are negotiations like?
Speaker 12 (28:58):
You know, you get these comments from China basically say hey,
we're not going to do anything until you show us
more respect. So if you're a trader or even a
long term investor, do you adjust right now?
Speaker 4 (29:06):
Right? Well, that's the question. I said. I can't believe
we got you to come back down here waiting to
the spot.
Speaker 12 (29:11):
This is this is a moment, you know, and I
hear congresses back next week too.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
That's true, and that you're going to get out of here.
Speaker 6 (29:17):
Just that's supposed to be the good part for the market.
And Kay, well, yeah, exactly. The budget.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
Think about that.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
When you just said the connection, the influence that Washington
is having on Wall Street, it's not isolated to the
tariff conversation. We're going to get actually into deeper waters
with reconciliation and the debt ceiling. What's the market do
we good? Then retrace our lows and freak out all
over again.
Speaker 12 (29:37):
So I spoke with the analyst yesterday, so right now
they're kind of looking towards late May, saying that, look,
if we get to Memorial Day and we start to
either see a deal in Congress or at least enough
progress towards a deal, that could be a big upside
catalyst for the market.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
Yeah.
Speaker 12 (29:50):
Conversely, if we don't see evidence of that, he's saying
that that could be the pillar, because you have a
market right now long term that is betting that all
of the short term pain that we've seen over the
last months, that that can maybe be remedied if we
do get more pro growth, pro business tax friendly policies
out of the White House and Congress over the next
few months.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
The question I continually have about that, though, is if
largely most of this policy is going to be an
extension of existing policy, where is that stimulus supposed to
kick in.
Speaker 12 (30:19):
Really, I'm not sure, and I'm not sure there is
economic stimulus. But if you pay attention to earnings, a
lot of these companies have found ways to navigate so far,
not necessarily on top line revenue growth. If you look
at analy assessments revenue growth for the S ANDP as
a hole, it's basically going to be flat, but you
are seeing strength on the bottom line, so a lot
of cost cutting, productivity improvements, things like that. That might
be the saving grace for corporate America, which then becomes
(30:41):
a saving grace potentially for the markets, and maybe that
feeds into the broader economy.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
It's been watching gold sync up a little bit with
bitcoin recently. When we talk to you, we tend to
hit on these after the bell. I want you to
share with our viewers and listeners. This is going to
seem rope for you, but to share with our viewers
and listeners how you scope the market What are the
six things that you look at to find out the
state that the market is in right now.
Speaker 12 (31:03):
Well, obviously everything going on in FX, so pay attention
to the dollar, particularly the correlations with the Canadian, the Mexican,
as well as the European currencies, particularly the Swiss frank.
Speaker 6 (31:16):
The other thing is the swaps market.
Speaker 12 (31:17):
It gets a little esoteric, but these are the basically
the traders who are out there determining where they think
the next rate cuts will be, where they think the
next the puck is going on the economy.
Speaker 6 (31:26):
They've been out ahead of this a lot.
Speaker 12 (31:28):
They've been right both to the upside and the downside
over the last few months in a lot of these situations.
So those are probably the two primary areas. The other thing,
and I really stress this a lot, is pay attention
to what these CEOs say over the next few couple
of weeks. In corporate America, one hundred and eighty companies
reporting next week, and it's the biggies, you know, the Amazons,
Microsoft's gms of the world. What happened last quarter is irrelevant,
(31:49):
but what they say about the quarters going forward, or
if they say anything at all, you might find more
insight from that than you do the actual hard data.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
Well, yeah, we're always watching those earnings calls, especially for
tech companies that the President says remain he's willing to
be flexible with. He's talking to Tim Cook whenever he's
asked about exemptions. It's a suggestion that he's going to
take that under consideration. Could we see actual light shed
on that, not from the White House but on the
corporate side.
Speaker 6 (32:13):
Possibly.
Speaker 12 (32:14):
And look, there has been some pretty good reporting from Bloomberg,
from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal about
some of the CEOs that had apparently gotten Trump's ear
There was a lot of talk about the retail ceo
is going to Trump earlier this week and making it
clear that they were going to be hurt.
Speaker 6 (32:27):
And you're hearing other industries do that as well.
Speaker 4 (32:29):
Fascinating. Romaine Boston in the Flash.
Speaker 6 (32:31):
Yeah, I think this first time I've been here.
Speaker 4 (32:33):
Is that true? All right? Yeah?
Speaker 6 (32:35):
So I get to keep this. Is this like a souvenir?
Speaker 4 (32:37):
Yeah, that's just a prop.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
By the way, every guest gets to take the microphone
with them. Maybe we'll see on the late edition of
Balance of Power. The Great Roman remain Bostik in the
nation's capital. We've seen it all this week on IMF week.
You never know who's going to show up around here,
including Mara Rudman. We want to get into not only
the debate over teriffs, the geopolitical debate here in Washington
right now as well when it comes to peace in UK.
(33:00):
Steve Whitkoff sat down. It was apparently a three hour
meeting this time with Vladimir Putin. I think they had
six hours the first time around. Almost nobody else was
in the room, so it's very difficult to have a
sense of where we are in this process. We did
hear though from President Trump in the Oval yesterday about
communications with Russia.
Speaker 5 (33:17):
Listen, put in a lot of pressure. You don't know
what pressure I'm putting on Russia.
Speaker 4 (33:20):
They're dealing.
Speaker 5 (33:22):
You have no idea what pressure I'm putting on Russia.
We're putting a lot of pressure. We're putting a lot
of pressure on Russia, and Russia knows that, and some
people that are close to it know, or he wouldn't
be talking.
Speaker 3 (33:36):
That's where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Mara Rudman,
professor at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, former US
diplomat Mara. I want to start with the meeting today
and Steve Whitkoff making a return appearance in Moscow, sitting
down with Vladimir Putin behind closed doors and no one
else representing the United States aside from an aid from
what we could see in the video here you go,
(33:58):
if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on U
you see him walking into the room, shaking hands with
Vladimir Putin and they sit down at this massive white
table without many people around that table. They're getting to
know themselves each other on a personal level. Here, Marrow,
what does it mean for the path for peace?
Speaker 11 (34:17):
Well, it concerns me greatly that they are having one
on one or close to one on one meetings. Steve
Whitkoff needs whether or not he believes that himself to
have the knowledge and experience of those who have had
to deal with Vladimir Putin over the decades across Republican
(34:37):
and democratic administrations, and he appears to be operating without that.
And the statements he's made publicly are deeply concerning. That
he made prior to this meeting about how he viewed
Vladimir Putin. And you can be sure that Putin very
clearly has Witkoff's number, literally, probably in terms of what
(35:00):
we know about the lack of security and operational security
of this administration, but also just in terms of his
profile and what it's going to take to essentially get
the better of him. So it concerns me deeply.
Speaker 9 (35:12):
Well.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Bloomberg reported yesterday Mara that part of what Witkoff was
going to present to Putin today were things that the
US would like Russia to agree to in a deal,
including accepting Ukraine have its own military and defense industry.
But Kurt Vulker, who worked on Ukraine negotiations during the
first Trump administration, was with US on Balance of Power
last night, and he said, the suggestion that this is
(35:34):
a concession from Russia, which is the invading country here
is a mischaracterization of it. That no such concessions can
really exist. And I wonder if you think about that
in the same way, or do you think the US
is asking Russia to swallow something that it might not
be willing to otherwise if it wasn't the Trump administration negotiating.
Speaker 5 (35:54):
No.
Speaker 11 (35:55):
I agree very much with what Kurt Volkler said, and
I would just want to Kur as the kind of
expert that Steve Witkoff and the administration would benefit from hearing,
from listening to in terms of the depth and breadth
of his experience with these actors. And so that is
one of the many things that concerns me. I think
(36:17):
it is obviously critical for Ukraine to keep its military ability,
but the idea that that's a major concession that the
United States is proposing to Russia is just another indication
I think of the in bounce with which the United
States is dealing with Russia and Ukraine in trying to resolve.
Speaker 3 (36:34):
This Mara, how do you read this back and forth
over China right now? President Trump suggesting daily communication between
the two sides. He says President she has called him.
Beijing says none of that is true.
Speaker 4 (36:49):
What should we take from that?
Speaker 11 (36:52):
I think we can take that neither actor who's making
these proclamations would be the place I'd go to for
truth telling at any point. So it's tough to know
understand what discussions have actually occurred.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I aw, you don't find that the administration in the
White House is more credit worthy, more truthful than the
regime in Beijing.
Speaker 11 (37:16):
Sadly, I do not.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
I guess that really answers the question about how you
read into this. Do you think that there will be
a meeting between President Trump and she.
Speaker 11 (37:29):
I would not be surprised if there was, And I
also don't know if there have been conversations between them
or not. Clearly, China is very comfortable putting out that
there have been no trade negotiations, and President Trump, we know,
is sometimes very loose, I can say charitably with his
(37:50):
characterizations of conversations or the content thereof. President Trump also
said I believe yesterday that he has agreements with two
hunts two hundred different trade agreements and needs one hundred
percent certain on that. And that's a somewhat baffling statement
to make, given that I'd believe there are ninety sets
of negotiations ongoing or contemplated at this point. So reliability
(38:16):
of information is a huge challenge right now on extraordinarily
sensitive issues that go to our economic and national security.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
Well, I'd like to ask you about another one of
those sensitive issues or areas, because the President was just
speaking with reporters on Air Force one. Mara'd answered some
questions about Iran specifically, He said the Iran situation is
coming out very well, that he'd rather have a deal
with Iran than the alternative, and he says the deal
is very simple. They can't have a nuclear weapon. Are
(38:46):
you optimistic that there can be an actual deal inked
with Iran? And how close could it look to the
original deal from the Obama administration.
Speaker 11 (38:54):
Yeah?
Speaker 7 (38:55):
So.
Speaker 11 (38:56):
I President Trump has a history of denigrating agreements and
then make new agreements that very much resemble them. See
NAFTA and then the subsequent agreement with Canada and Mexico
and the JCPOA agreement between Iran and the Europeans and
the United States would be another example of that. I
(39:19):
will say here, I think there are several avenues that
point to potential promising outcomes in terms of these negotiations.
And by promising outcomes, I mean getting a better handle
again on Iran's nuclear activity and forestalling military action against Iran.
(39:40):
I think that's what the Saudis want, That's what other
key players in the region with whom President Trump is
working closely, are looking toward. And I think the question
will be again the skill of the negotiators on both sides.
And here again I'm concerned about the leading role that
Steve Woodkoff has.
Speaker 4 (39:57):
It's only got a minute left, Maria.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
Fifty heads of state will gather in Rome in the
next twenty four hours for the Pope's funeral. President Trump
will be there. He and the First Lady will essentially
be leaving as soon as it's done, which means likely
no meeting with President Zelenski.
Speaker 4 (40:14):
Is that a missed opportunity.
Speaker 11 (40:18):
I think there are several. There are so many opportunities
that have been missed by President Trump. I will say
that I think it's important in terms of him going
to the funeral of the Pope to honor the memory
of Pope Francis and to focus on that. I'm a
little concerned about the amount that he has been talking
about opportunities for various side meetings, because it's a solemn moment,
(40:41):
and its an important moment to honor the memory of
a man who really has had a tremendous impact and
has a tremendous legacy for the world to respect.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
Indeed, mar Rudmand thanks for joining us professor at the
University of Virginia's Miller Center. Also former US diplomat.
Speaker 3 (41:03):
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at
Bloomberg dot com
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