April 29, 2025 • 49 mins
Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to sign an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration would release the text of the directive, detailing the specifics of the action, later on Tuesday.
The plan would change 25% tariffs on auto part imports, expected to start May 3, by allowing carmakers to claim an offset worth up to 3.75% of the value of a US-made vehicle for one year, a senior Commerce Department official said.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:
- Bloomberg's Molly Smith.
- Fireside Strategies Partner Alex Conant.
- Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall.
- Democratic Governor Laura Kelly of Kansas, Chair of the Democratic Governors Association.
- Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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Speaker 2 (00:25):
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here
on Bloomberg Radio Satellite radio channel one twenty one in
on YouTube, where you can dial us up right now
if you haven't already searched Bloomberg Business News Live. Just
let it roll all day while you're working or whatever
you're doing. Here. It's the full Bloomberg Radio experience with
visuals if you dare throughout the day. And we've got
(00:45):
a lot to cover here as we mark one hundred days.
This is all anybody's talking about, beyond, of course, the
markets and the economic data that are inextricably tied to
the Trump administration. It's going to play out like this.
He leaves the bubble pretty soon, actually, around two o'clock
in the afternoon. We'll head over to Joint Base Andrews,
and then it's off to the Midwest to the Promised Land.
(01:05):
Of Michigan, and he's not going straight to the big rally.
We're going to get a big campaign style rally tonight.
You know, we're all staying up late for this special
coverage right here on Bloomberg. But he's starting at Selfridge
Air National Guard Base. If you were with us yesterday,
you might have heard Congressman Bill Ia Singa talking about
that there's been an ask in Michigan for more jets.
That's why the governor was in the Oval Office a
(01:26):
couple of weeks ago updated jets. They're going to be
talking likely about a major investment at Selfridge, and then
it's on to the grand event in McCombe County at
the Community College Sports Expo Center. They tell us six
o'clock PM what they're billing as the one hundredth day
in office achievement speech. Are we going to get the
big one? We get like a kid rock concert here?
(01:48):
What's going to be involved. I'm waiting to hear more
about the choreography because it's going to feel a lot
like the campaign. Maybe we'll get a flyover since he's
actually the president now with of course, a lot of
the conversation around promise is made promises kept right, just
billed as an achievement speech. Of course, one of the
big promises was tariffs. Another promise was lower prices. And
(02:11):
they keep bumping into each other. We'll talk about it
every day around here. They even pulled out the Treasury
Secretary for an early morning briefing. By the way, they've
done this twice, you're allowed to chuckle at White House
correspondence who have to get up extra early now every
morning for the eight thirty am Press briefing. Used to
be around two in the afternoon. Special guest today the
(02:31):
Treasury Secretary there to answer the big questions on tariffs.
When will the trade deals emerge? But more specifically, listen
to this exchange. Are we actually talking to China? Because
we keep hearing from the White House that we are.
Donald Trump even said on the daily Beijing says, we've
never engaged the White House on tariffs. Here's the latest
from this morning.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty again
of who's talking to whom, but as I said, I
believe for the Chinese these terrifts are unsustainable.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
Very quickly two days ago, un you didn't know if
President Trump had spoken to sheeting king.
Speaker 5 (03:10):
Do you know now Again, I would say Caroline and
I have a lot of jobs around the White House,
running the switchboard in one of them.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Running the switchboard ain't one of them. So we still
have no idea who's on the phone with whom, or
anyone for that matter. With the idea of maybe some
other countries arriving at deals first, Japan, maybe Indio would
be the big one. But as we wait, it's not
helping with confidence on the corporate level or on the
(03:39):
consumer level. As we bump into the headline this morning,
consumer confidence slumps to an almost five year low. We
can talk about abstract politics all day long, but if
your job is to be Bloomberg Economics editor like Molly Smith,
you have to deal with fact data. You know, Bloomberg.
She's with us right now, having survived another thirty am call,
(04:01):
not for a briefing, but for a data dump. You
have no mercy on these White House correspondents. Have to
be in the briefing room at eight thirty. You do
it every day.
Speaker 6 (04:07):
We've got other things to do. If could do this
every day. Confidence actually dropped at ten, so that was
a little later.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
That's true.
Speaker 7 (04:13):
We had something else at eight thirty you did.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
I know you're an early bird here, and I want
to start on confidence here, because if you look back
five years, what was that May of twenty twenty?
Speaker 7 (04:25):
What was time?
Speaker 2 (04:25):
What was going on right around that?
Speaker 7 (04:26):
Really dark?
Speaker 2 (04:27):
So we just went back to the pandemic in terms
of confidence.
Speaker 7 (04:30):
That's where the levels are right now.
Speaker 6 (04:32):
And this was the fifth straight monthly decline and that's
the longest stretch since two thousand and eight, another time
period that probably rings boy oh bothe.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
These superlatives are stacking up. So what are consumers saying
in this survey?
Speaker 6 (04:45):
It's, you know, really just a continuation of this tariff
induced anxiety about how this is going to be raising
prices on a number of consumer goods, How prospects for
what somebody anticipates their financial situation is going to look
like or deteriorate markedly anticipated odds of a recession, wage prospects,
just all of these things about how secure you feel
(05:07):
in your financial situation have just really weakened dramatically.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
We talk a lot about soft data versus hard data.
The data are supposed to capture what consumers are doing.
We kind of look as we're blanks at Bloomberg, we
wonder we kind of assume everyone's walking around looking at
GDP and consumers saying, well, geez, maybe I shouldn't buy this.
But it's sort of a chicken and egg thing here, right.
Where is the consumer when it comes to talk of
a recession? Is is that kitchen table talk or is
(05:33):
that for people like us?
Speaker 8 (05:34):
No?
Speaker 6 (05:34):
I think this is very real, and that's where people
talk about this so called vibe session, in this idea
of the soft data being just so much worse than
what the hard data indicates. And that's why when we
do actually get the first look at GDP tomorrow, it's
going to be so interesting to see how much of
this actually comes through.
Speaker 7 (05:51):
In the hard data.
Speaker 6 (05:52):
Because GDP, some economists are I think the media in
estment right now is penciling in what would be a
very very small increase, would be a huge slowdown from
the previous quarter, and a lot of that coming from
one a big drop off in consumer spending, and the
bigger one is trade. And all of this so far
being that there has been so much import activity to
(06:14):
get ahead of these tariffs, and we saw.
Speaker 7 (06:16):
That with the eight thirty data this morning.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
That was the Advanced Trades Report showing that the goods
deficit widened to another record in March. So the import
activity has just been rampant and that's really going to
just subtract the most from GDP tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
We're seeing this as well in the form of fewer
container ships off the port of la Right, So what
are we in for tomorrow when GDP comes out? This
will be our broadest measure we've had, yeah, and there
since it's mattered since Liberation Day exactly.
Speaker 7 (06:45):
So this is for the government's initial estimate of.
Speaker 6 (06:48):
First quarter GDP, and there are a lot of economists
who are penciling into contraction. You know, we haven't had
that since twenty twenty two, and that would be really dramatic. Again,
a lot of it from the trade side. So if
you are of the camp that maybe imports are going
to normalize after this big rush in the first quarter
(07:08):
to get ahead of tariffs, then you might be a
little bit more sanguine on the outlook for the current
quarter for.
Speaker 7 (07:13):
Trade and GDP.
Speaker 6 (07:15):
But it's really hard to tell right now because there's
still so much of this up in the air. As
you just heard, Beson can even tell us who's talking
to who right now? So who the heck knows if
there's still going to be more of this front running
activity until we really know where the tariff rates are
going to settle.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Yeah, So the idea of front running and the pull
forward that we're seeing right now in anticipation of tariffs,
does that guarantee a downturn in the back half of
the year. I don't know if I was saying that.
Speaker 6 (07:42):
I mean, I don't know if I would say guarantee
a downturn. I think what the biggest thing for our
economy is consumer spending, and that's what drives our economic
activity more so than what trade does. And I think
a lot of economists would also tell you, in looking
at how to determine when a recess is actually happening,
you have to look at the consumer, and you have
(08:03):
to look at the job market. And trade is I
guess it's more of an exogenous factor compared to those others.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Okay, well, we're about to look at the job market
on Friday. This is the big one that we have coming.
I keep asking you every month, when do the federal
worker layoffs start showing up? What are you expecting on Friday?
Speaker 6 (08:18):
So we're I think, I mean, you know, we keep
thinking that like we're going to keep getting these like
big you know, more of a moderation in job growth, which.
Speaker 7 (08:26):
Has generally been the theme.
Speaker 6 (08:27):
I mean, except for the fact that the March payrolls
report was such a blowout in a good way. You
know that there was such strong job growth, but it
looks like that it's going to that level would drop off.
Speaker 7 (08:37):
Pretty mysterially in April this month. I don't know if
I would. I mean, I think that implies that it's
really like bad.
Speaker 6 (08:44):
But like the median estimate right now for payrolls growth
is somewhere in like the one hundred and fifteen thousand area.
Speaker 7 (08:50):
That's not bad. That's not a bad number.
Speaker 6 (08:51):
And the unemployment rates still holding a four point two
percent also not that. But there's I mean, I always
like to look at the range of est myths for
the payrolls report and.
Speaker 7 (09:01):
How wide the band can be.
Speaker 6 (09:03):
I mean, sometimes we're looking at a span of like
one hundred and fifty thousand from the high to the low,
So that median, of course is who knows where the
actual number will lie.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
It's interesting what you said to us, though, is we
get a contraction in GDP tomorrow, first time since the
non recession, remember was it was two quarters, but it
wasn't a recession from the Biden administration. A lot of
people think this is the beginning of one. Is when
does that become consensus or that's not a baseline expectation
right now, is it?
Speaker 6 (09:29):
I mean, it's I think right now in more Oh
that we're in one now. Yeah, I don't know if
I would say that. No, I think because again, like
there's the idea of what you kind of just alluded
to what we'd call a technical recession of these back
to back quarters of negative GDP, which could very well
be a trade story. But when you look at actual
recession jobs, spending, that's not really that pass well.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
And I learned a lot about that a couple of
years ago when when we met the technical definition and
Molly Smith taught me otherwise, it takes a lot more
to call it a recession. Great to have you in Washington,
Bloomberg Imix editor Molly Smith with us on the fastest
show in politics. Stay here live from Washington only on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on
Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
I'm Jill Matthew and Washington, where we don't have a subway,
we have a metro. Sometimes it works much like the
apparatus on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. We're going to
be talking more about reconciliation, the drive to mark up
some bills this week, and of course what's happening on
the other end. That's the big story today. One hundred days.
How do you feel having experienced it? As we turn
(10:50):
to the anatomy of a retraction? This has been an
interesting element today, having started at eight thirty this morning
with another early morning call in the White House briefing
room the Press Secretary and the Treasury Secretary today talking
about trade tariffs, you know, the economic agenda on one
hundred days. This is a big part of what we're
(11:10):
going to hear about this evening from President Trump. But
this whole idea of Amazon. You heard about this by now,
I'm sure listing tariff prices. You know, when you go
to the restaurant, they've got the calorie count on the menu,
makes you not want to buy anything there order that
it's a thousand calories. Amazon had an idea to break
it out in terms of tariffs. How come my new
(11:31):
fruit of the loom are so expensive? You ask, and
there'd be a little item on there right like a
service charge, and it would break out. The tariffs didn't
play well at the White House. We all woke up
to this story today. The Amazon was considering this. The
Press Secretary Caroline Levitt was asked about it. Here's what
she said.
Speaker 9 (11:49):
I just got off the phone with the President about
Amazon's announcement. This is a hostile and political act by Amazon.
It's another reason why we are on shoring critical supply
into here at home to shore up our own critical
supply chain and boost our own manufacturing.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Yikes called it a hostel and political act by Amazon.
Fast forward to noon statement from the company that was
never under consideration. Amazon says the team that runs our
ultra low cost Amazon Haul store considered the idea of
listing import charges, never approved and was never going to happen.
(12:27):
If you're with us on YouTube. You see the response
rapid response from Amazon. The stock's been lower. And it's
where we start our conversation with a noted Republican strategist
who's been through the ringer in multiple campaigns, survived the
first Trump administration, and is with us right now at
the desk. Alex Conant, partner at Firehouse Strategies, was at
(12:48):
one time, in a different life two thousand and eight
a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, also helped to
run Marco Rubio's presidential campaign. It's great to see you.
Thank you for coming back on Bloomberg. So, like yourself,
working at Firehouse, gets a phone call from Amazon. It says, Alex,
we need help. What do we do here? A reversal
like this is remarkable and it tells us a lot
(13:08):
about the influence this administration has over corporate America.
Speaker 10 (13:11):
I don't think any business wants to get a fight
with the White House right now, but I think every
business in America is also recognizes the reality that tariffs
are going to drive prices up. Sure, as we saw
in the last administration, inflation is the worst thing that
can happen to a president. It's something that voters see
everywhere every time they're going to fill the tank, buy eggs,
(13:33):
go online, to go shopping. When they see prices going up,
they get angry. And so look if Biden didn't survive it,
Carter din subriveet. I think Trump and the Republicans are
very sensitive that these tariffs are going to make prices
go up. That's why you saw That's why you saw
the White House so quick to attack this report. They
don't want they don't want prices to go up, but
(13:54):
they really don't want a Corporate America or any businesses
to tell to blame the president directly on why the
prices are going out.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Well, so here you are, it's one hundred days and
you need to write an achievement speech as it's being
called for President Trump. We just spoke to Molly Smith,
or economics editor, who's pointed a hard data. We're going
to see potentially a contraction in GDP tomorrow. You see
all the analysts notes that the odds are rising on
a recession. We're seeing some creep when it comes to inflation.
The bond market's been freaking out a little bit. How
(14:24):
do you craft a cohesive message that says we did
good in the last one hundred days on the economy.
Speaker 10 (14:30):
Yeah, Look, I can't recall a situation where there's such
a disconnect between the mood inside the West Wing and
the mood on Main Street, on Wall Street with the
electorate as all. If you look at the polls that
came out over the weekend, they're really bad for the president,
and they're trending badly. And they're bad because people are
losing faith in his ability to handle economy, which has
(14:50):
always been the bad rock of Donald Trump's support since
twenty fifteen, since twenty sixteen. They might not like what
he tweets, they might not like some of his personal behavior,
but they trust them to handlely. If he loses that,
he's in real trouble. And that's what we're seeing in
the polls. But the mood inside the White Houses. Look,
one hundred days in, we're delivering on everything that we promised,
Everything that the President said he was going to.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
Do, he's doing.
Speaker 10 (15:10):
We got our our cabinet confirmed. You know, there's only
one nominee at Gates who didn't make it through. The
rest were confirmed, you know, for better or worse. Yeah,
you know, some of them have had some trouble since then.
But the executive orders, he said he's done more of
those than any president in history. His tax reform is
moving ahead in Congress. So I think that they feel very,
very good about the kind of the first one hundred days.
(15:33):
I think the President is going to be a really
good mood at his rally tonight. But I think the
fact that he's doing the rally tonight and he's doing
all the interviews around one hundred days is also a
reflection that there are voices inside the West Wing. While
the mood is good, they can see the storm crowd
clouds coming. They recognize he needs to get out there
more sell his agenda. But if the economy is in
the tank, you know, a couple of rallies isn't going
(15:54):
to fix it.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
Sure, does you know? I can hear what he's going
to say on the border tonight, Right, we locked it down.
This is the most secure border in American history. When
it comes to the economy, though, is the message just
hang on? I mean, give me a little more time.
And how much time does he have? Look?
Speaker 10 (16:09):
I think I mean still he's gonna blame bidenidenomy. Look,
I mean he's gonna say Look, you know the economy
was and the reason he won is because people didn't
like the economy, right, Like, people not liking the economy
is not a new phenomenon. People haven't liked the economy
is why he won. He's gonna blame Trump, he's gonna say,
or he's gonna blame Biden. He's gonna say, Look, I
inherited the worst economy ever. We're doing X, Y and
(16:30):
Z to fix it, including tariffs, and he's going to
try to sell his tariffs. But at the end of
the day, you know, inflation is not something you can
spin away. People are going to get upset about that
falling stock market, people get upset about that recessions, if
people start losing their jobs. Look, they're gonna blame Trump.
And this is not a you know, I'm a communicator,
and you know I love to say like, this is
not a communications problem, Like this is going to be
(16:51):
an economic problem. If if the trends that we're seeing
that Molly was just talking about, if that actually comes
to fruition, he's going to have Republicans are going to
have a real local problem on their hand.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Has there been a communications problem when you have Howard
Lutnik on one network, Scott Besstt on another. Then the
president's doing an hour and a half in the oval,
and everyone's saying something a little bit different about tariffs,
about whether we've talked to China about whether we're going
to have exemptions. There has been some confusion in the message.
If you were in the communications office, how would you
true this up?
Speaker 10 (17:20):
Look, I think there's been to say there's confusion on
the tariffs's. I think a misunderstand is an understatement. There's
been no communication strategy on the tariffs here. Right, you
have Howard Lutnick out there saying we aren't going to
do tariffs because we're going to raise all this revenue
to balance the budget.
Speaker 8 (17:35):
Right.
Speaker 10 (17:35):
You've had other people out there saying we're going to
do tariffs to get great trade deals so we can
do even more trading. You've had other people saying we're
going to do trade tariffs so that we can rise
increase the cost of imports. Yeah, and force people to
bring those jobs back to the US, so you know,
we can get more factories, more manufacturing in the US.
All three of those things cannot be true at the
same time, right, you can't have great trade deals and
(17:59):
raise a bunch of new tariffs. And so I think
the I think the fact that and at the same time,
you're asking the American people to make great sacrifices, You're
asking them to pay more for the things that they
buy every day, which is gonna be unpopular. If you're
going to ask the American people to make great sacrifice,
you have to have a really clear rationale for that,
And we haven't heard that from the White House.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
What do you do optically tonight? How do you make
this different? We're so used to seeing Trump rallies. Do
you have a big opening act here? Is there a flyover?
You know he's gonna be calling people up on the stage, right,
Alex Come, I love you, Alex, Come talk to the
people for a minute. Is this a stem winder like
we saw in twenty twenty four?
Speaker 11 (18:36):
I would assume.
Speaker 4 (18:37):
So.
Speaker 10 (18:37):
I mean, look, I think Trump's current team has survived
because they let Trump be Trump.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Yeah, it's up to Trump.
Speaker 10 (18:43):
He's gonna do what he did a National convention. Look,
he gave the longest acceptance speech ever at the RNC.
He gave the longest ever Stay of the Union speech.
A couple of weeks ago. Tonight'speech is gonna be long.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
Yeah, Okay, cancel the dinner plans, James. We're going for
the long haul here. We're very cited for another late one.
Will there be news becomes a question and does it matter?
Does he need to make news tonight? Just talk about
some relief that he might offer in the form of
auto teriffs. For instance, you go to Michigan, do you
have to bring something with you? Maybe?
Speaker 10 (19:13):
I mean, look, that's just right, Like I'm out of
the prediction business. When Donald when it comes to Donald Trump, like,
who knows what he's going to do, what he's going
to say.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
You know, at the end of the day, Look, I think.
Speaker 10 (19:25):
We should all expect some sort of tariff walk back
over the next thirty days. You see, you see what
importers are saying, You see what the Port of Los
Angeles is saying, You see what the retailers are expecting.
This if, if all this comes to fruition, Memorial Day
is going to be rough politically, the economy is going
to be rough, and so I would expect over the
next thirty days to continue to see the sort of
(19:47):
tariff walkbacks that we've seen over the last three weeks,
and maybe he lays out or hints at some of
that tonight.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
So lawmakers marching in parades and doing town halls, if
they do them, yeah, I mean at least republic lawmakers
over Memorial of the Week and are going to get.
Speaker 10 (20:00):
A earful look if the tariffs go If if the
tariffs go into it affect as he said, and they're
allowed to go into effect over the next couple of weeks,
so you're going to see economic uh, an economic response
to that. It's going to be very negative. And these
things lag right first, uh, you know, first you see
fewer imports. Then look if if if, if container ships
(20:21):
are not coming into the Port of Los Angeles, then
you don't need the truck drivers to drive those goods
to the to you know, to to the stores. The
stories don't have things to sell. You don't need people
working hourly, you know hourly. If there's nothing to buy,
you know, people are prices are going to goup, people
are gonna get frustrated. This is this is all very foreseeable.
I think you guys on Bloomberger are talking about it
every single day. I think people inside the White House
(20:42):
recognize this is coming, which is why you have seen
the steady walking back of the tariffs. I would expect
to continue to see that. If you don't see that,
then there is going to be I think real economic
headwinds this summer, and the White House is going to
face the political palty.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Wait, hear lines about empty shelves and so that's a
that's a horrifying thought for any administration in our remaining moment.
Then you're a political strategist. If you're a Democrat right now,
are you writing the menu for the midterms?
Speaker 10 (21:08):
Look, it turns out James Carver Level's right, right, Like
all Democrats needed to do was going back, was going
to hiding. The president's poll numbers are not down because
Democrats have figured out, you know, effective messaging. To the contrary,
I think the messaging we've seen from the Democrats is
is pretty lousy. But they're in the opposition, right and
so they're going to benefit in the mid term. If
(21:30):
the economy is in the tank and Trump is unpopular,
the Democrats are going to have a good midterms, just
like Republicans did four years ago.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Fascinating. I'm really glad to have you back in the
fold here. Alex ConA, thank you so much, Firehouse Strategies.
Big thanks to Maddie and your team for putting us
back in touch. Let's keep this conversation going because this
is not one that's going to go away anytime soon.
A voice of experience here in Washington, Republican strategist Alex Conant,
many thanks here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew
and Washington. Glad you're with us here on Bloomberg Radio,
(21:59):
on the satellite and on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketsas
live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
live on YouTube.
Speaker 12 (22:20):
We're seeing a new trend here in Washington this week,
which is a pre opening bell briefing here in Washington
from the White House Press Secretary in Caroline Levitt. Two
mornings in a row, eight thirty am Eastern time is
when these have been called and she's been joined by
other officials in the administration. Yesterday was Tom Homan, who,
of course, as the borders are today, it was the
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett as tariffs as always remain in focus,
(22:44):
specifically tariff negotiations with trading partners and the ongoing question
as to whether or not those negotiations are even happening
with China at the moment. This was the Treasury Secretary earlier.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Well, I'm not going to get into the nitty gratty
again of who's talking to whom, but as I said,
I believe for the Chinese these terrafts are unsustainable very quickly.
Speaker 4 (23:09):
Two days ago, you and you didn't know if President
Trump had spoken to Shijinping.
Speaker 11 (23:13):
Do you know now? Again?
Speaker 5 (23:15):
I would say, Caroline and I have a lot of
jobs around the White House. Running the switchboard in one
of them.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Running the switchboard isn't one of them. Maybe Tyler can
help us with the switchboard. She's made her way to Michigan,
where President Trump is going to be speaking later in
what's being billed as an achievement speech marking one hundred days.
Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall in Warren, Michigan. It's at a community college.
Tyler set the stage for us.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Yeah, Hey, Jim, so Warren, Michigan. We're in Macomb County.
You can probably hear the crowd behind me. We're going
to show you what the scene already looks like for
our radio listeners. You can see people are already starting
to line up here as President Trump is expected to
take this stage at six pm Eastern. This is an
auto industry hubby. In fact, a county official tells me
the area has three hundred and thirty eight vehicle manufacturers
(24:05):
employees about twenty two thousand people. And it comes as
President Trump is expected to sign those executive orders on
Air Force one on his way over here to Michigan
that you've been talking about that could give some reprieve
to automakers. That includes preventing the stacking of levies four
automakers so that they want to be subject to that
twenty five percent tariff on stealing aluminum, for example. It
(24:25):
also would potentially modify how we see auto parts tariffs
end up being terrify, allowing companies that make the fully
assembled vehicles in the United States to get an offset
of up to three point seventy five percent of the
MSRP value for the next year. Now, administration officials, and
we should be clear this is not a changing the
(24:45):
actual twenty five percent teriff rate that automakers are facing,
but administration officials say that this should give them at
least a little bit of a boost, a little bit
of a reprieve to re short manufacturing to places like Michigan.
Here's what the Treasury Secretary had to say about it
earlier today.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
I can tell you that it will go substantially toward
restoring America and auto manufacturing. And again, the goal here
is to bring back the high quality industrial jobs to
the US.
Speaker 4 (25:19):
I was on press call earlier today with senior Commerce
officials who told US reporters that ultimately it really was
the talks with the big three automakers that made the
difference here that ultimately spurred the administration to make these changes,
because the Whitehouse says that they have gone commitments from
these companies to reshore production and they just needed a
little more time.
Speaker 12 (25:40):
Well and Tyler obviously no surprise that this is likely
to feature heavily in the President's speech tonight, given where
he is speaking, and we can already hear the excitement
of the crowd that is gathering hours early. What are
his other primary messages going to be tonight for those
who are assembled to see him.
Speaker 4 (26:00):
Well, the administration really is focusing on the two prongs
of its economic approach today, with Scott Bessen this morning
tounting progress when it comes to tariff negotiations, although we
have yet to see any more concrete details about exactly
where those stands. And then the other priority is that
they are pushing that they are moving very fast to
get his tax agenda through. In fact, President Trump told
Michigan Republicans not to come here tonight because he wants
(26:22):
them to stay in Washington to get done the reconciliation package.
We heard from the Treasury Secretary yesterday that they would
like to see the entire package done by July fourth.
It's something that Senate Majority Leader John Thune said was
an aspirational goal. Instead, we're really thinking that that X
date is going to be the hard deadline for lawmakers.
But it is clear that this White House is pushing
to get more cash into consumers pockets quickly try to
(26:45):
turn the attention there as they deal with the fallout
when it comes to the tariffs from retailers and consumers alike.
Speaker 12 (26:51):
All Right, Bloomberg's Tyler Genthal live in Warren, Michigan, where
it is already, Loud. I can't imagine what it's going
to be like this evening when President Trump speaks at
six pm Hestern time. Thank you so much, Tyler, and
for a kind of taste as to what we might
be able to get from President Trump tonight. Beyond what
we just heard from Tyler, let's hear from the President
himself some of the highlights of his first one hundred
days in office.
Speaker 13 (27:13):
The Golden Age of America begins right now. I will
sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs. My fellow Americans,
this is liberation Day China sixty seven percent, this ending
Fenton All to Mexico, in Canada.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
We're not in a good positions. You don't have the
cards right now.
Speaker 13 (27:33):
One of the most important initiatives is doge. We're going
to be cutting taxes and as possible, we'll do a
complete tax cut. I have a great relationship with Presidency.
I hope it's going to stay that way. We are
finally going to be able to make America great again,
greater than ever before.
Speaker 12 (27:52):
Words from the Republican president of the United States, and
we want to get the other side now from a
Democratic leader of a state, the state of Kansas, specifically,
it's governor, the chair of the Democratic Governor's Association. Mind you,
Laura Kelly, is joining us now here on Bloomberg TV
and Radio. Governor, thank you very much for being with
us here on balance of power. I would imagine it
will be several times tonight we might hear some iteration
(28:15):
of promises made, promise is kept by President Trump, and
hear those words from his lips. He argues, Governor that
what we have seen over the last one hundred days
is him fulfilling the desire of the voters who elected him.
Is he fundamentally wrong about that?
Speaker 8 (28:31):
I don't know if I would say he is wrong.
I mean, certainly, in his mind he feels like he
said he was going to do all of these things,
and he's doing all of them.
Speaker 11 (28:40):
And there are actually some of the.
Speaker 8 (28:42):
Things that he proposed doing that I think everybody would agree.
Speaker 11 (28:48):
Could be very good things.
Speaker 8 (28:49):
You know, certainly we're all cognizant of the fact that
we had an issue at our vorder and that that
needs to be cleaned up. I would agree, I think
though we can't leave it just at cleaning up the
border and deporting people who may or may not be criminals.
(29:10):
I think it needs to go further than that to
deal with the entire immigration issue and come up with
finally a comprehensive immigration reform package that works for our states.
Every state I know is facing workforce shortages, and by
(29:32):
deporting potential workers, we are not working towards resolution of that.
We really need the administration and Congress to sit down
and finally come up with a real solution that would
resolve the border issue but also resolve our workforce issue.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Governor Kelly, We're lucky to talk to a lot of
elected officials on this program, but it's always different when
you speak an executive. Governors and mayors simply have a
different reality than a lot of elected officials here in
Washington who play the PARTI is in game and do
a lot of talking. You have to deal with things
like balancing budgets, making sure services are delivered, making sure
(30:15):
roads are paved, actual things that impact constituents' lives. And
so I'm curious what your pragmatic view is of this,
this waiting period, this sort of limbo that we're in
right now, and how much time President Trump actually has
to set the record straight and deliver a clear message
on tariffs. You're talking to voters every day about this.
(30:36):
Is that window about to close?
Speaker 9 (30:39):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (30:39):
I think I think we're pastime. You know, I think
the first hundred days of this administration has just sown
chaos and uncertainty all across the country and all across
issues and industries. You know, the tariff issue is obviously
(31:00):
the one that's most prominent and clearly creating issues for
our economies in our states. You know, in my state alone,
you know, we have worked so hard over the last
six years and been very successful in growing our economy,
you know, in bringing in new and different industries into
(31:23):
our state, creating seventy five thousand jobs, bringing in twenty billion,
twenty two billion dollars worth of new capital investment, which
is huge for a state like Kansas.
Speaker 11 (31:35):
All of what we've been.
Speaker 8 (31:36):
Doing is getting put up in the air as the
companies that we have recruited, the companies that are here,
are dealing with all of this chaos and uncertainty on
the tariff issue, and they don't know where to go
or what will work as they move forward. So everybody's
getting to a standstill kind of positioning, which is not
(31:59):
good for the companies, and it's certainly not good for
our states. So, you know, I while I recognize that
every new administration has the right and responsibility to you know,
put into place policies and procedures that they think are
(32:21):
necessary to move the country in a way that they
think appropriate, but doing it in this way where it's
just willingly one thing one day, another thing the next day,
isn't helpful not to move their agenda forward, but certainly
not to help our states stay on a path.
Speaker 12 (32:43):
Well, in your state specifically, Governor has more than fifty
thousand farms, and I wonder what you're hearing from farmers
specifically about the impact of tariffs on them and whether
they're going to need to count on subsidies from either
the state government or the federal government to offset the impact.
Speaker 8 (33:00):
Out Well, you know, we have two major industries here
in the state of Kansas.
Speaker 11 (33:05):
Aviation is one of them. And you know, as has been.
Speaker 8 (33:09):
In the paper, there are lots of issues going on
with the aviation issue industry as a result of these
tariffs and these sort of international battles that are going
on right now, but certainly in agriculture here in Kansas.
But then across the country.
Speaker 11 (33:24):
Uh. The tariffs create absolute havoc uh.
Speaker 8 (33:29):
And real concern for our farmers, you know, our you know,
I was the very first and maybe the only Democratic
governor who signed on to the USMCA, the trade deal
that the Trump administration put together in his first administration,
you know, dealing with our relationship with Canada and Mexico
(33:52):
and the United States. I signed out of that because
I thought it was in the best interests of Kansas,
you know. And now that's all being thrown out.
Speaker 11 (34:00):
Uh.
Speaker 8 (34:01):
And you know what's being it's nothing's really replacing it.
But what has happened is that our relationship, particularly with
our two biggest trade partners, Canada and Mexico, are in
a shambles. You know, our farmers very much depend upon
the potash that they get from Canada to fertilize their fields.
Speaker 11 (34:24):
Uh. You know, our UH are a lot of our.
Speaker 8 (34:28):
UH produce and stuff which we can't grow here, you know,
is brought in from Mexico.
Speaker 11 (34:35):
Our exports. You know, when, for instance, when the U.
Speaker 9 (34:38):
S a i.
Speaker 8 (34:39):
D Was sort of shut down, you know, moments after
he took office. You know, we had I don't know
how many millions of UH pounds of milo that was
sitting in silos here in the state of Kansas.
Speaker 11 (34:55):
Their only customer was the USDA.
Speaker 8 (34:58):
UH. They were growing this typically for them to use.
So my farmers are stuck with this stuff and the
market has been completely shut down. So there are a
lot of problems and we absolutely have got to come
to some resolution very quickly. And they don't want, you know,
(35:19):
a handout. You know, they got that the first time around.
You know, remember that tariffs were put in place in
the first Trump administration and they did backfill that with
with cash. The farmers don't want that, you know that
that's a band aid that doesn't do anything for them
going forward. I think their biggest fear with what's going
(35:41):
on right now is that, you know, not only are
they not able to sell their their product right now,
export their products right but that they will ultimately lose
their markets. That countries aren't going to wait forever, you know,
They're going to go find somebody else who can supply
(36:03):
what Kansas farmers.
Speaker 11 (36:04):
Have been supplying. So it is a huge.
Speaker 8 (36:07):
Concern and one that I hope this administration will wake
up to and finally deal with.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
Because Governor Kelly, we only have one minute left. I
want to give you an opportunity to Freebut what we're
going to hear this evening. Donald Trump carried your state
by more than sixteen points in twenty twenty four. What's
your message to voters on this one hundredth day of
the Trump administration.
Speaker 8 (36:31):
Well, you know, there's not a lot to say to
voters right now.
Speaker 11 (36:36):
You know, we don't have an election.
Speaker 8 (36:39):
You know, midterms aren't until twenty six, another presidential elections
not until twenty eight. But I would say to all
citizens that they need to make a lot of noise
about how this is really impacting them in their lives,
and they need to make that noise so that they're
(36:59):
Congress representatives hear them, you know, because what's happening right
now is impacting people all across this country, whether they're
talking about what they're thinking about doing with medicaid obviously,
what's happening with caraffs, and what's happening or governor system
(37:20):
lots and lots they need to get loud.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
We're glad you could be with us. Laura Kelly, the
governor of Kansas, chair of the Democratic Governors Association on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (37:30):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's during
on Apple Cocklay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg.
Speaker 7 (37:47):
Eleven thirty.
Speaker 12 (37:49):
Not just any Tuesday, of course, the day in which
President Trump is marking one hundred days back in the
White House. And of course over the last one hundred days,
we've seen a lot of action emany from the executive branch,
from President Trump himself, the signing of hundreds of executive
orders or memoranda, the implementation of tariffs and the like,
(38:09):
things that he hasn't really needed Congress to go with
them on, and Congress hasn't really expressed much interest in
countering him on that. But the problem, Joe is for
the next portion of the President's agenda, the next one
hundred days, he's going to need Congress, that's true, to
get a lot of what he would like to achieve
across the finish line.
Speaker 2 (38:28):
Well, if you think about it broadly too, I mean
that's when trade deals would need to be announced right
that the ninety day period would be wrapped up. We
have to deal with Trump tax cuts, and we could
get an X state this week that lands a debt
ceiling in the early summer. So yeah, the second hundred
days could be really interesting here, and it's where we
start our conversation with our panel as we round the
(38:49):
first one hundred Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano or here
Bloomberg Politics contributors. Ricks partner at Stone Cord Capital. Jeanie
is Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study
of the Presidency in Congress. One hundred days, everybody, Rick,
how much does President Trump have to show for the
first hundred days? But also how much news does he
need to make? Because there is an expectation he's going
(39:11):
to make an announcement, no mystery that he's in the
suburbs of Detroit here to make an announcement on auto
tariffs that we just heard from the White House. The
auto industry will be happy with the announcement, some relief
on tariffs that will prevent them from being stacked on
top of each other. Here, Rick, does he need to
bring the goods to Michigan.
Speaker 14 (39:32):
Yeah, First of all, I'm not sure it's a happy
one hundred days. I mean it's a pretty sober one
hundred days. You know, what everybody thought was going to
be open season on you know, investments and mergers and
IOPs and you know, less government regulation and more entrepreneurship
has turned into exactly the opposite, real serious questions about
(39:54):
global trade, attacking the Fed's independence. I mean this is
this has had a real salute or effect on the
economy and SMP down eight percent, worse than any present
sin since Gerald Ford in his first hundred days. And
we know what was going on back then. So the
reality is that I think today he's got a chance
(40:17):
to try and start peeling some of that back. Obviously,
they are forecasting release of some of these tariffs on
parts for car manufacturers. Good start, you kind of scratch
your head and go, okay, well, why did we do
that to begin with? I mean, like, you know, these
are parts that all go into automobiles that are going
to be made in the US ultimately, anyway, why did
(40:39):
we put tariffs.
Speaker 15 (40:39):
On him to begin with?
Speaker 16 (40:41):
And so I think there's going to be a lot
of that head scratching because hopefully this is the beginning
of a whole series of things, including, as you point out,
deals that we're making with other countries that will lower
the reciprocity tariffs, that reciprocal tariffs that were already put on.
Speaker 14 (40:58):
Well, you know, if we're going to cut the those deals,
why didn't we just reach out and say, hey, we're
going to cut a new deal with you before we
put these reciprocal tariffs on. I honestly don't really get
the strategy, but it's not working with the American public.
But tonight maybe we see the clawback on some of that.
Speaker 12 (41:16):
Well, and I wonder how much tonight we'll focus not
just on tariffs, Genie, but the other kind of domestically
oriented efforts that the President has undertaken, in part with
Elon Musk at his side, like the dramatic reduction in
the federal government, the complete dismantling of agencies like USAID
or the CFPB. Arguably, how much, Genie is his one
(41:38):
hundred days actually marked by something that could be, if
not a permanent change to the federal bureaucracy, something that
would take years to unwind even once he leaves office,
or rather than unwinding, perhaps rebuilding.
Speaker 15 (41:52):
Yeah, much of what he's done can take a long time.
You know, things he's done via EO, we usually say, well,
a new president could walk that back, but that's harder
in those areas you're talking about, Kayley, like the cuts
in DOGE. How do you bring a workforce back if
you want to do that? How do you rebuild departments?
I mean, just take USA as an example. You know
(42:14):
that's going to be a big, big challenge. And you know,
as I look at what the president is facing, he
certainly is not going to want to focus on the
economy tonight because the economy, according to every poll you
look at, is in disarrays. So he's gonna want to
talk about things like immigration and DOGE. But he's not
(42:36):
incredibly popular on that either, and so this is going
to be difficult. You know, Carl Rove got on Fox
News and said, the president has a huge problem, and
that is number one. His support as it pertains to
the economy, both short term and long term, has all
but plummeted and is in very bad shape. And Carl Grove,
(42:57):
as we know, is no liberal. So how do you
walk back from that? Very tough? And then I look
at the Atlantic Interview where that. The reporters asked him
point blank, is there any red line, any sign of
the US economy plummeting where you would say, Okay, enough
is enough, and I'm going to walk back from my
commitment to tariffs. And he said, no, there's no red line.
(43:18):
I've been committed to this for thirty years. Nothing could
change my mind. So that is a very soberat reality
as we look out there, and so I think it
leaves him with a real challenge tonight.
Speaker 2 (43:30):
Well, Rick, democrats are counting the ways here. The top
Democrats on the House and Senate Appropriations Committee are out
with a letter here. They've even created a tracker to
determine the billions of dollars in funding allocated by Congress
that has been blocked or withheld by this administration. This
is four hundred and thirty billion dollars according to Rosa
(43:52):
Deloro and Senator Patty Murray, four hundred and thirty billion
dollars for medical research, disaster relief aid to farmers. I
could go on here. It's almost like they're taking a
page out of Elon Musk. Remember the wall of receipts.
We now have a tracker to determine the money that's
not being spent. Is this the type of strategy that works?
Speaker 14 (44:13):
Yeah, I think it's important to realize they're kind of
like three buckets that everybody's talking about. There's that Doge
bucket that went from we're going to cut two trillion
dollars out of the budget to now we're going to
cut one hundred and fifty billion, right, and these are cuts,
these are things that will likely not come back. Then
there's this four hundred and thirty billion, which are things
they're just they're authorized to spend the money on, they're
(44:35):
just not spending it. Those checks aren't going out, the
funds aren't made available to the programs that have been
authorized by Congress to do. And that's what Congress is tracking, saying, hey,
this stuff is supposed to be done. There's a third
bucket that Russ Vot's about to send to Congress, which
is nine billion dollars of recisions. That means, here's money
(44:55):
you gave us, we're giving it back this we're not
going to spend that money. And so like, there is
a massive reduction in spending by the federal government going on,
none of which we can really track effectively right now.
And By the way, we talk as if the first
hundred days is at the end of the administration. We
have three years and four hundred days left to this
(45:21):
administration and we're just getting started. So I think you've
anticipate this fight continuing for a long time.
Speaker 12 (45:29):
Well, it certainly is incredible to consider the more than
thirteen hundred days that we.
Speaker 7 (45:35):
Still have left.
Speaker 12 (45:36):
But of course the President may be thinking about a
kind of more immediate deadline here, Genie is he wants
to make sure he can get a maximum amount done
with control of both chambers of Congress. Right now Republicans
have control that could change after the midterms next year,
which is why they're trying to force through this budget
reconciliation package with his tax cuts included, as quickly as possible.
(45:58):
The Treasury Secretary says, now July fourth is really the
target to.
Speaker 7 (46:02):
Get this done.
Speaker 12 (46:02):
It had previously been touted by the Speaker of the House.
Is something that would be accomplished at least in that
chamber by Memorial Day, knowing that the debt ceiling could
be a factor in here as well. Is this really
going to be something that can be completed by the
August recess? Given the difficulty of some of the subject
matter that Republicans are going to have to tackle in
the coming weeks.
Speaker 15 (46:24):
Yeah, they really want to just ruin your summer, Kaylee.
Forget about the beach. You're going to be working, work,
and work in either Memorial Day July fourth. It's going
to be tough either way. I think, in an odd way,
the fact that the debt ceiling they may come up
to it may light a fire under them. But either way,
there is going to be a lot of inter party
squabbling on these issues because we've got these small groups
(46:47):
of Republicans who are committed and they, unlike Donald Trump,
when it comes to tariffs, they don't they do have
a redline that they won't go over. I mean, we
were just talking about clawbacks, and you've even got a
group of Republicans in Congress who say, we don't want
clawbacks of the IRA quite frankly, we like those investments
(47:08):
that Joe Biden made. Then you've got the other deficit hawks,
and then of course you've got the folks on Salt,
which you know is one of my personal favorites. Then
you know, you've also got folks who are saying we're
gonna draw a red line as it pertains to something else.
And so these groups are gonna have to come together
and figure this out, and it's gonna be hard to
(47:28):
do in a short period of time. And of course
Donald Trump is running some right smack dab into a
Madisonian government. It's all about divided power. Everything he's done
this first hundred days has been unilateral executive power. Now
he's got to deal with this other branch he's been
able to run over for some time. But if they
look at the same pole askar Rova's looking at, they
(47:49):
may decide it's not in their interest and they indeed
could lose their seats if they go along with what
the president is proposing. So I think July fourth is ambitious,
you know. But Scott Besten's a smart guy. Maybe he
knows something I don't, But I think it's an ambitious timeline.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
Does that unilateral approach rick that genie describes the playbook
for the next one hundred days?
Speaker 15 (48:14):
Yeah, I don't think so.
Speaker 13 (48:16):
You know.
Speaker 14 (48:17):
Look, I mean, even though Donald Trump did a lot
of things through executive order, which you'll continue to do
throughout his presidency, all they do is pick up the
front page of any newspaper tale. I'm going to issue
an executive order on that today. That seems to be
his MO. But remember, Congress gave him his cabinet. There
were hearings, there were the votes in the House in
the Senate to confirm every member of his administration's cabinet.
(48:41):
And they members had lots of opportunity there to hang
people up and make it quote worth their while on
a policy basis, but they didn't do it. And now
they're all rallying around, you know, the big, beautiful Reconciliation bill,
and I have no doubt that's what will become law.
Speaker 7 (49:01):
All right.
Speaker 12 (49:02):
Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano our political panel, thank you
so much joining us as we mark one hundred days
in office for President Trump and look ahead to his
big speech in Michigan tonight, again slated for six pm.
Speaker 2 (49:18):
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
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Speaker 2 (00:25):
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here
on Bloomberg Radio Satellite radio channel one twenty one in
on YouTube, where you can dial us up right now
if you haven't already searched Bloomberg Business News Live. Just
let it roll all day while you're working or whatever
you're doing. Here. It's the full Bloomberg Radio experience with
visuals if you dare throughout the day. And we've got
(00:45):
a lot to cover here as we mark one hundred days.
This is all anybody's talking about, beyond, of course, the
markets and the economic data that are inextricably tied to
the Trump administration. It's going to play out like this.
He leaves the bubble pretty soon, actually, around two o'clock
in the afternoon. We'll head over to Joint Base Andrews,
and then it's off to the Midwest to the Promised Land.
(01:05):
Of Michigan, and he's not going straight to the big rally.
We're going to get a big campaign style rally tonight.
You know, we're all staying up late for this special
coverage right here on Bloomberg. But he's starting at Selfridge
Air National Guard Base. If you were with us yesterday,
you might have heard Congressman Bill Ia Singa talking about
that there's been an ask in Michigan for more jets.
That's why the governor was in the Oval Office a
(01:26):
couple of weeks ago updated jets. They're going to be
talking likely about a major investment at Selfridge, and then
it's on to the grand event in McCombe County at
the Community College Sports Expo Center. They tell us six
o'clock PM what they're billing as the one hundredth day
in office achievement speech. Are we going to get the
big one? We get like a kid rock concert here?
(01:48):
What's going to be involved. I'm waiting to hear more
about the choreography because it's going to feel a lot
like the campaign. Maybe we'll get a flyover since he's
actually the president now with of course, a lot of
the conversation around promise is made promises kept right, just
billed as an achievement speech. Of course, one of the
big promises was tariffs. Another promise was lower prices. And
(02:11):
they keep bumping into each other. We'll talk about it
every day around here. They even pulled out the Treasury
Secretary for an early morning briefing. By the way, they've
done this twice, you're allowed to chuckle at White House
correspondence who have to get up extra early now every
morning for the eight thirty am Press briefing. Used to
be around two in the afternoon. Special guest today the
(02:31):
Treasury Secretary there to answer the big questions on tariffs.
When will the trade deals emerge? But more specifically, listen
to this exchange. Are we actually talking to China? Because
we keep hearing from the White House that we are.
Donald Trump even said on the daily Beijing says, we've
never engaged the White House on tariffs. Here's the latest
from this morning.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty again
of who's talking to whom, but as I said, I
believe for the Chinese these terrifts are unsustainable.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
Very quickly two days ago, un you didn't know if
President Trump had spoken to sheeting king.
Speaker 5 (03:10):
Do you know now Again, I would say Caroline and
I have a lot of jobs around the White House,
running the switchboard in one of them.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Running the switchboard ain't one of them. So we still
have no idea who's on the phone with whom, or
anyone for that matter. With the idea of maybe some
other countries arriving at deals first, Japan, maybe Indio would
be the big one. But as we wait, it's not
helping with confidence on the corporate level or on the
(03:39):
consumer level. As we bump into the headline this morning,
consumer confidence slumps to an almost five year low. We
can talk about abstract politics all day long, but if
your job is to be Bloomberg Economics editor like Molly Smith,
you have to deal with fact data. You know, Bloomberg.
She's with us right now, having survived another thirty am call,
(04:01):
not for a briefing, but for a data dump. You
have no mercy on these White House correspondents. Have to
be in the briefing room at eight thirty. You do
it every day.
Speaker 6 (04:07):
We've got other things to do. If could do this
every day. Confidence actually dropped at ten, so that was
a little later.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
That's true.
Speaker 7 (04:13):
We had something else at eight thirty you did.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
I know you're an early bird here, and I want
to start on confidence here, because if you look back
five years, what was that May of twenty twenty?
Speaker 7 (04:25):
What was time?
Speaker 2 (04:25):
What was going on right around that?
Speaker 7 (04:26):
Really dark?
Speaker 2 (04:27):
So we just went back to the pandemic in terms
of confidence.
Speaker 7 (04:30):
That's where the levels are right now.
Speaker 6 (04:32):
And this was the fifth straight monthly decline and that's
the longest stretch since two thousand and eight, another time
period that probably rings boy oh bothe.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
These superlatives are stacking up. So what are consumers saying
in this survey?
Speaker 6 (04:45):
It's, you know, really just a continuation of this tariff
induced anxiety about how this is going to be raising
prices on a number of consumer goods, How prospects for
what somebody anticipates their financial situation is going to look
like or deteriorate markedly anticipated odds of a recession, wage prospects,
just all of these things about how secure you feel
(05:07):
in your financial situation have just really weakened dramatically.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
We talk a lot about soft data versus hard data.
The data are supposed to capture what consumers are doing.
We kind of look as we're blanks at Bloomberg, we
wonder we kind of assume everyone's walking around looking at
GDP and consumers saying, well, geez, maybe I shouldn't buy this.
But it's sort of a chicken and egg thing here, right.
Where is the consumer when it comes to talk of
a recession? Is is that kitchen table talk or is
(05:33):
that for people like us?
Speaker 8 (05:34):
No?
Speaker 6 (05:34):
I think this is very real, and that's where people
talk about this so called vibe session, in this idea
of the soft data being just so much worse than
what the hard data indicates. And that's why when we
do actually get the first look at GDP tomorrow, it's
going to be so interesting to see how much of
this actually comes through.
Speaker 7 (05:51):
In the hard data.
Speaker 6 (05:52):
Because GDP, some economists are I think the media in
estment right now is penciling in what would be a
very very small increase, would be a huge slowdown from
the previous quarter, and a lot of that coming from
one a big drop off in consumer spending, and the
bigger one is trade. And all of this so far
being that there has been so much import activity to
(06:14):
get ahead of these tariffs, and we saw.
Speaker 7 (06:16):
That with the eight thirty data this morning.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
That was the Advanced Trades Report showing that the goods
deficit widened to another record in March. So the import
activity has just been rampant and that's really going to
just subtract the most from GDP tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
We're seeing this as well in the form of fewer
container ships off the port of la Right, So what
are we in for tomorrow when GDP comes out? This
will be our broadest measure we've had, yeah, and there
since it's mattered since Liberation Day exactly.
Speaker 7 (06:45):
So this is for the government's initial estimate of.
Speaker 6 (06:48):
First quarter GDP, and there are a lot of economists
who are penciling into contraction. You know, we haven't had
that since twenty twenty two, and that would be really dramatic. Again,
a lot of it from the trade side. So if
you are of the camp that maybe imports are going
to normalize after this big rush in the first quarter
(07:08):
to get ahead of tariffs, then you might be a
little bit more sanguine on the outlook for the current
quarter for.
Speaker 7 (07:13):
Trade and GDP.
Speaker 6 (07:15):
But it's really hard to tell right now because there's
still so much of this up in the air. As
you just heard, Beson can even tell us who's talking
to who right now? So who the heck knows if
there's still going to be more of this front running
activity until we really know where the tariff rates are
going to settle.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Yeah, So the idea of front running and the pull
forward that we're seeing right now in anticipation of tariffs,
does that guarantee a downturn in the back half of
the year. I don't know if I was saying that.
Speaker 6 (07:42):
I mean, I don't know if I would say guarantee
a downturn. I think what the biggest thing for our
economy is consumer spending, and that's what drives our economic
activity more so than what trade does. And I think
a lot of economists would also tell you, in looking
at how to determine when a recess is actually happening,
you have to look at the consumer, and you have
(08:03):
to look at the job market. And trade is I
guess it's more of an exogenous factor compared to those others.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Okay, well, we're about to look at the job market
on Friday. This is the big one that we have coming.
I keep asking you every month, when do the federal
worker layoffs start showing up? What are you expecting on Friday?
Speaker 6 (08:18):
So we're I think, I mean, you know, we keep
thinking that like we're going to keep getting these like
big you know, more of a moderation in job growth, which.
Speaker 7 (08:26):
Has generally been the theme.
Speaker 6 (08:27):
I mean, except for the fact that the March payrolls
report was such a blowout in a good way. You
know that there was such strong job growth, but it
looks like that it's going to that level would drop off.
Speaker 7 (08:37):
Pretty mysterially in April this month. I don't know if
I would. I mean, I think that implies that it's
really like bad.
Speaker 6 (08:44):
But like the median estimate right now for payrolls growth
is somewhere in like the one hundred and fifteen thousand area.
Speaker 7 (08:50):
That's not bad. That's not a bad number.
Speaker 6 (08:51):
And the unemployment rates still holding a four point two
percent also not that. But there's I mean, I always
like to look at the range of est myths for
the payrolls report and.
Speaker 7 (09:01):
How wide the band can be.
Speaker 6 (09:03):
I mean, sometimes we're looking at a span of like
one hundred and fifty thousand from the high to the low,
So that median, of course is who knows where the
actual number will lie.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
It's interesting what you said to us, though, is we
get a contraction in GDP tomorrow, first time since the
non recession, remember was it was two quarters, but it
wasn't a recession from the Biden administration. A lot of
people think this is the beginning of one. Is when
does that become consensus or that's not a baseline expectation
right now, is it?
Speaker 6 (09:29):
I mean, it's I think right now in more Oh
that we're in one now. Yeah, I don't know if
I would say that. No, I think because again, like
there's the idea of what you kind of just alluded
to what we'd call a technical recession of these back
to back quarters of negative GDP, which could very well
be a trade story. But when you look at actual
recession jobs, spending, that's not really that pass well.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
And I learned a lot about that a couple of
years ago when when we met the technical definition and
Molly Smith taught me otherwise, it takes a lot more
to call it a recession. Great to have you in Washington,
Bloomberg Imix editor Molly Smith with us on the fastest
show in politics. Stay here live from Washington only on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on
Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
I'm Jill Matthew and Washington, where we don't have a subway,
we have a metro. Sometimes it works much like the
apparatus on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. We're going to
be talking more about reconciliation, the drive to mark up
some bills this week, and of course what's happening on
the other end. That's the big story today. One hundred days.
How do you feel having experienced it? As we turn
(10:50):
to the anatomy of a retraction? This has been an
interesting element today, having started at eight thirty this morning
with another early morning call in the White House briefing
room the Press Secretary and the Treasury Secretary today talking
about trade tariffs, you know, the economic agenda on one
hundred days. This is a big part of what we're
(11:10):
going to hear about this evening from President Trump. But
this whole idea of Amazon. You heard about this by now,
I'm sure listing tariff prices. You know, when you go
to the restaurant, they've got the calorie count on the menu,
makes you not want to buy anything there order that
it's a thousand calories. Amazon had an idea to break
it out in terms of tariffs. How come my new
(11:31):
fruit of the loom are so expensive? You ask, and
there'd be a little item on there right like a
service charge, and it would break out. The tariffs didn't
play well at the White House. We all woke up
to this story today. The Amazon was considering this. The
Press Secretary Caroline Levitt was asked about it. Here's what
she said.
Speaker 9 (11:49):
I just got off the phone with the President about
Amazon's announcement. This is a hostile and political act by Amazon.
It's another reason why we are on shoring critical supply
into here at home to shore up our own critical
supply chain and boost our own manufacturing.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Yikes called it a hostel and political act by Amazon.
Fast forward to noon statement from the company that was
never under consideration. Amazon says the team that runs our
ultra low cost Amazon Haul store considered the idea of
listing import charges, never approved and was never going to happen.
(12:27):
If you're with us on YouTube. You see the response
rapid response from Amazon. The stock's been lower. And it's
where we start our conversation with a noted Republican strategist
who's been through the ringer in multiple campaigns, survived the
first Trump administration, and is with us right now at
the desk. Alex Conant, partner at Firehouse Strategies, was at
(12:48):
one time, in a different life two thousand and eight
a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, also helped to
run Marco Rubio's presidential campaign. It's great to see you.
Thank you for coming back on Bloomberg. So, like yourself,
working at Firehouse, gets a phone call from Amazon. It says, Alex,
we need help. What do we do here? A reversal
like this is remarkable and it tells us a lot
(13:08):
about the influence this administration has over corporate America.
Speaker 10 (13:11):
I don't think any business wants to get a fight
with the White House right now, but I think every
business in America is also recognizes the reality that tariffs
are going to drive prices up. Sure, as we saw
in the last administration, inflation is the worst thing that
can happen to a president. It's something that voters see
everywhere every time they're going to fill the tank, buy eggs,
(13:33):
go online, to go shopping. When they see prices going up,
they get angry. And so look if Biden didn't survive it,
Carter din subriveet. I think Trump and the Republicans are
very sensitive that these tariffs are going to make prices
go up. That's why you saw That's why you saw
the White House so quick to attack this report. They
don't want they don't want prices to go up, but
(13:54):
they really don't want a Corporate America or any businesses
to tell to blame the president directly on why the
prices are going out.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Well, so here you are, it's one hundred days and
you need to write an achievement speech as it's being
called for President Trump. We just spoke to Molly Smith,
or economics editor, who's pointed a hard data. We're going
to see potentially a contraction in GDP tomorrow. You see
all the analysts notes that the odds are rising on
a recession. We're seeing some creep when it comes to inflation.
The bond market's been freaking out a little bit. How
(14:24):
do you craft a cohesive message that says we did
good in the last one hundred days on the economy.
Speaker 10 (14:30):
Yeah, Look, I can't recall a situation where there's such
a disconnect between the mood inside the West Wing and
the mood on Main Street, on Wall Street with the
electorate as all. If you look at the polls that
came out over the weekend, they're really bad for the president,
and they're trending badly. And they're bad because people are
losing faith in his ability to handle economy, which has
(14:50):
always been the bad rock of Donald Trump's support since
twenty fifteen, since twenty sixteen. They might not like what
he tweets, they might not like some of his personal behavior,
but they trust them to handlely. If he loses that,
he's in real trouble. And that's what we're seeing in
the polls. But the mood inside the White Houses. Look,
one hundred days in, we're delivering on everything that we promised,
Everything that the President said he was going to.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
Do, he's doing.
Speaker 10 (15:10):
We got our our cabinet confirmed. You know, there's only
one nominee at Gates who didn't make it through. The
rest were confirmed, you know, for better or worse. Yeah,
you know, some of them have had some trouble since then.
But the executive orders, he said he's done more of
those than any president in history. His tax reform is
moving ahead in Congress. So I think that they feel very,
very good about the kind of the first one hundred days.
(15:33):
I think the President is going to be a really
good mood at his rally tonight. But I think the
fact that he's doing the rally tonight and he's doing
all the interviews around one hundred days is also a
reflection that there are voices inside the West Wing. While
the mood is good, they can see the storm crowd
clouds coming. They recognize he needs to get out there
more sell his agenda. But if the economy is in
the tank, you know, a couple of rallies isn't going
(15:54):
to fix it.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
Sure, does you know? I can hear what he's going
to say on the border tonight, Right, we locked it down.
This is the most secure border in American history. When
it comes to the economy, though, is the message just
hang on? I mean, give me a little more time.
And how much time does he have? Look?
Speaker 10 (16:09):
I think I mean still he's gonna blame bidenidenomy. Look,
I mean he's gonna say Look, you know the economy
was and the reason he won is because people didn't
like the economy, right, Like, people not liking the economy
is not a new phenomenon. People haven't liked the economy
is why he won. He's gonna blame Trump, he's gonna say,
or he's gonna blame Biden. He's gonna say, Look, I
inherited the worst economy ever. We're doing X, Y and
(16:30):
Z to fix it, including tariffs, and he's going to
try to sell his tariffs. But at the end of
the day, you know, inflation is not something you can
spin away. People are going to get upset about that
falling stock market, people get upset about that recessions, if
people start losing their jobs. Look, they're gonna blame Trump.
And this is not a you know, I'm a communicator,
and you know I love to say like, this is
not a communications problem, Like this is going to be
(16:51):
an economic problem. If if the trends that we're seeing
that Molly was just talking about, if that actually comes
to fruition, he's going to have Republicans are going to
have a real local problem on their hand.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Has there been a communications problem when you have Howard
Lutnik on one network, Scott Besstt on another. Then the
president's doing an hour and a half in the oval,
and everyone's saying something a little bit different about tariffs,
about whether we've talked to China about whether we're going
to have exemptions. There has been some confusion in the message.
If you were in the communications office, how would you
true this up?
Speaker 10 (17:20):
Look, I think there's been to say there's confusion on
the tariffs's. I think a misunderstand is an understatement. There's
been no communication strategy on the tariffs here. Right, you
have Howard Lutnick out there saying we aren't going to
do tariffs because we're going to raise all this revenue
to balance the budget.
Speaker 8 (17:35):
Right.
Speaker 10 (17:35):
You've had other people out there saying we're going to
do tariffs to get great trade deals so we can
do even more trading. You've had other people saying we're
going to do trade tariffs so that we can rise
increase the cost of imports. Yeah, and force people to
bring those jobs back to the US, so you know,
we can get more factories, more manufacturing in the US.
All three of those things cannot be true at the
same time, right, you can't have great trade deals and
(17:59):
raise a bunch of new tariffs. And so I think
the I think the fact that and at the same time,
you're asking the American people to make great sacrifices, You're
asking them to pay more for the things that they
buy every day, which is gonna be unpopular. If you're
going to ask the American people to make great sacrifice,
you have to have a really clear rationale for that,
And we haven't heard that from the White House.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
What do you do optically tonight? How do you make
this different? We're so used to seeing Trump rallies. Do
you have a big opening act here? Is there a flyover?
You know he's gonna be calling people up on the stage, right,
Alex Come, I love you, Alex, Come talk to the
people for a minute. Is this a stem winder like
we saw in twenty twenty four?
Speaker 11 (18:36):
I would assume.
Speaker 4 (18:37):
So.
Speaker 10 (18:37):
I mean, look, I think Trump's current team has survived
because they let Trump be Trump.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Yeah, it's up to Trump.
Speaker 10 (18:43):
He's gonna do what he did a National convention. Look,
he gave the longest acceptance speech ever at the RNC.
He gave the longest ever Stay of the Union speech.
A couple of weeks ago. Tonight'speech is gonna be long.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
Yeah, Okay, cancel the dinner plans, James. We're going for
the long haul here. We're very cited for another late one.
Will there be news becomes a question and does it matter?
Does he need to make news tonight? Just talk about
some relief that he might offer in the form of
auto teriffs. For instance, you go to Michigan, do you
have to bring something with you? Maybe?
Speaker 10 (19:13):
I mean, look, that's just right, Like I'm out of
the prediction business. When Donald when it comes to Donald Trump, like,
who knows what he's going to do, what he's going
to say.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
You know, at the end of the day, Look, I think.
Speaker 10 (19:25):
We should all expect some sort of tariff walk back
over the next thirty days. You see, you see what
importers are saying, You see what the Port of Los
Angeles is saying, You see what the retailers are expecting.
This if, if all this comes to fruition, Memorial Day
is going to be rough politically, the economy is going
to be rough, and so I would expect over the
next thirty days to continue to see the sort of
(19:47):
tariff walkbacks that we've seen over the last three weeks,
and maybe he lays out or hints at some of
that tonight.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
So lawmakers marching in parades and doing town halls, if
they do them, yeah, I mean at least republic lawmakers
over Memorial of the Week and are going to get.
Speaker 10 (20:00):
A earful look if the tariffs go If if the
tariffs go into it affect as he said, and they're
allowed to go into effect over the next couple of weeks,
so you're going to see economic uh, an economic response
to that. It's going to be very negative. And these
things lag right first, uh, you know, first you see
fewer imports. Then look if if if, if container ships
(20:21):
are not coming into the Port of Los Angeles, then
you don't need the truck drivers to drive those goods
to the to you know, to to the stores. The
stories don't have things to sell. You don't need people
working hourly, you know hourly. If there's nothing to buy,
you know, people are prices are going to goup, people
are gonna get frustrated. This is this is all very foreseeable.
I think you guys on Bloomberger are talking about it
every single day. I think people inside the White House
(20:42):
recognize this is coming, which is why you have seen
the steady walking back of the tariffs. I would expect
to continue to see that. If you don't see that,
then there is going to be I think real economic
headwinds this summer, and the White House is going to
face the political palty.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Wait, hear lines about empty shelves and so that's a
that's a horrifying thought for any administration in our remaining moment.
Then you're a political strategist. If you're a Democrat right now,
are you writing the menu for the midterms?
Speaker 10 (21:08):
Look, it turns out James Carver Level's right, right, Like
all Democrats needed to do was going back, was going
to hiding. The president's poll numbers are not down because
Democrats have figured out, you know, effective messaging. To the contrary,
I think the messaging we've seen from the Democrats is
is pretty lousy. But they're in the opposition, right and
so they're going to benefit in the mid term. If
(21:30):
the economy is in the tank and Trump is unpopular,
the Democrats are going to have a good midterms, just
like Republicans did four years ago.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Fascinating. I'm really glad to have you back in the
fold here. Alex ConA, thank you so much, Firehouse Strategies.
Big thanks to Maddie and your team for putting us
back in touch. Let's keep this conversation going because this
is not one that's going to go away anytime soon.
A voice of experience here in Washington, Republican strategist Alex Conant,
many thanks here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew
and Washington. Glad you're with us here on Bloomberg Radio,
(21:59):
on the satellite and on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketsas
live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
live on YouTube.
Speaker 12 (22:20):
We're seeing a new trend here in Washington this week,
which is a pre opening bell briefing here in Washington
from the White House Press Secretary in Caroline Levitt. Two
mornings in a row, eight thirty am Eastern time is
when these have been called and she's been joined by
other officials in the administration. Yesterday was Tom Homan, who,
of course, as the borders are today, it was the
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett as tariffs as always remain in focus,
(22:44):
specifically tariff negotiations with trading partners and the ongoing question
as to whether or not those negotiations are even happening
with China at the moment. This was the Treasury Secretary earlier.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Well, I'm not going to get into the nitty gratty
again of who's talking to whom, but as I said,
I believe for the Chinese these terrafts are unsustainable very quickly.
Speaker 4 (23:09):
Two days ago, you and you didn't know if President
Trump had spoken to Shijinping.
Speaker 11 (23:13):
Do you know now? Again?
Speaker 5 (23:15):
I would say, Caroline and I have a lot of
jobs around the White House. Running the switchboard in one
of them.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
Running the switchboard isn't one of them. Maybe Tyler can
help us with the switchboard. She's made her way to Michigan,
where President Trump is going to be speaking later in
what's being billed as an achievement speech marking one hundred days.
Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall in Warren, Michigan. It's at a community college.
Tyler set the stage for us.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Yeah, Hey, Jim, so Warren, Michigan. We're in Macomb County.
You can probably hear the crowd behind me. We're going
to show you what the scene already looks like for
our radio listeners. You can see people are already starting
to line up here as President Trump is expected to
take this stage at six pm Eastern. This is an
auto industry hubby. In fact, a county official tells me
the area has three hundred and thirty eight vehicle manufacturers
(24:05):
employees about twenty two thousand people. And it comes as
President Trump is expected to sign those executive orders on
Air Force one on his way over here to Michigan
that you've been talking about that could give some reprieve
to automakers. That includes preventing the stacking of levies four
automakers so that they want to be subject to that
twenty five percent tariff on stealing aluminum, for example. It
(24:25):
also would potentially modify how we see auto parts tariffs
end up being terrify, allowing companies that make the fully
assembled vehicles in the United States to get an offset
of up to three point seventy five percent of the
MSRP value for the next year. Now, administration officials, and
we should be clear this is not a changing the
(24:45):
actual twenty five percent teriff rate that automakers are facing,
but administration officials say that this should give them at
least a little bit of a boost, a little bit
of a reprieve to re short manufacturing to places like Michigan.
Here's what the Treasury Secretary had to say about it
earlier today.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
I can tell you that it will go substantially toward
restoring America and auto manufacturing. And again, the goal here
is to bring back the high quality industrial jobs to
the US.
Speaker 4 (25:19):
I was on press call earlier today with senior Commerce
officials who told US reporters that ultimately it really was
the talks with the big three automakers that made the
difference here that ultimately spurred the administration to make these changes,
because the Whitehouse says that they have gone commitments from
these companies to reshore production and they just needed a
little more time.
Speaker 12 (25:40):
Well and Tyler obviously no surprise that this is likely
to feature heavily in the President's speech tonight, given where
he is speaking, and we can already hear the excitement
of the crowd that is gathering hours early. What are
his other primary messages going to be tonight for those
who are assembled to see him.
Speaker 4 (26:00):
Well, the administration really is focusing on the two prongs
of its economic approach today, with Scott Bessen this morning
tounting progress when it comes to tariff negotiations, although we
have yet to see any more concrete details about exactly
where those stands. And then the other priority is that
they are pushing that they are moving very fast to
get his tax agenda through. In fact, President Trump told
Michigan Republicans not to come here tonight because he wants
(26:22):
them to stay in Washington to get done the reconciliation package.
We heard from the Treasury Secretary yesterday that they would
like to see the entire package done by July fourth.
It's something that Senate Majority Leader John Thune said was
an aspirational goal. Instead, we're really thinking that that X
date is going to be the hard deadline for lawmakers.
But it is clear that this White House is pushing
to get more cash into consumers pockets quickly try to
(26:45):
turn the attention there as they deal with the fallout
when it comes to the tariffs from retailers and consumers alike.
Speaker 12 (26:51):
All Right, Bloomberg's Tyler Genthal live in Warren, Michigan, where
it is already, Loud. I can't imagine what it's going
to be like this evening when President Trump speaks at
six pm Hestern time. Thank you so much, Tyler, and
for a kind of taste as to what we might
be able to get from President Trump tonight. Beyond what
we just heard from Tyler, let's hear from the President
himself some of the highlights of his first one hundred
days in office.
Speaker 13 (27:13):
The Golden Age of America begins right now. I will
sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs. My fellow Americans,
this is liberation Day China sixty seven percent, this ending
Fenton All to Mexico, in Canada.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
We're not in a good positions. You don't have the
cards right now.
Speaker 13 (27:33):
One of the most important initiatives is doge. We're going
to be cutting taxes and as possible, we'll do a
complete tax cut. I have a great relationship with Presidency.
I hope it's going to stay that way. We are
finally going to be able to make America great again,
greater than ever before.
Speaker 12 (27:52):
Words from the Republican president of the United States, and
we want to get the other side now from a
Democratic leader of a state, the state of Kansas, specifically,
it's governor, the chair of the Democratic Governor's Association. Mind you,
Laura Kelly, is joining us now here on Bloomberg TV
and Radio. Governor, thank you very much for being with
us here on balance of power. I would imagine it
will be several times tonight we might hear some iteration
(28:15):
of promises made, promise is kept by President Trump, and
hear those words from his lips. He argues, Governor that
what we have seen over the last one hundred days
is him fulfilling the desire of the voters who elected him.
Is he fundamentally wrong about that?
Speaker 8 (28:31):
I don't know if I would say he is wrong.
I mean, certainly, in his mind he feels like he
said he was going to do all of these things,
and he's doing all of them.
Speaker 11 (28:40):
And there are actually some of the.
Speaker 8 (28:42):
Things that he proposed doing that I think everybody would agree.
Speaker 11 (28:48):
Could be very good things.
Speaker 8 (28:49):
You know, certainly we're all cognizant of the fact that
we had an issue at our vorder and that that
needs to be cleaned up. I would agree, I think
though we can't leave it just at cleaning up the
border and deporting people who may or may not be criminals.
(29:10):
I think it needs to go further than that to
deal with the entire immigration issue and come up with
finally a comprehensive immigration reform package that works for our states.
Every state I know is facing workforce shortages, and by
(29:32):
deporting potential workers, we are not working towards resolution of that.
We really need the administration and Congress to sit down
and finally come up with a real solution that would
resolve the border issue but also resolve our workforce issue.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Governor Kelly, We're lucky to talk to a lot of
elected officials on this program, but it's always different when
you speak an executive. Governors and mayors simply have a
different reality than a lot of elected officials here in
Washington who play the PARTI is in game and do
a lot of talking. You have to deal with things
like balancing budgets, making sure services are delivered, making sure
(30:15):
roads are paved, actual things that impact constituents' lives. And
so I'm curious what your pragmatic view is of this,
this waiting period, this sort of limbo that we're in
right now, and how much time President Trump actually has
to set the record straight and deliver a clear message
on tariffs. You're talking to voters every day about this.
(30:36):
Is that window about to close?
Speaker 9 (30:39):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (30:39):
I think I think we're pastime. You know, I think
the first hundred days of this administration has just sown
chaos and uncertainty all across the country and all across
issues and industries. You know, the tariff issue is obviously
(31:00):
the one that's most prominent and clearly creating issues for
our economies in our states. You know, in my state alone,
you know, we have worked so hard over the last
six years and been very successful in growing our economy,
you know, in bringing in new and different industries into
(31:23):
our state, creating seventy five thousand jobs, bringing in twenty billion,
twenty two billion dollars worth of new capital investment, which
is huge for a state like Kansas.
Speaker 11 (31:35):
All of what we've been.
Speaker 8 (31:36):
Doing is getting put up in the air as the
companies that we have recruited, the companies that are here,
are dealing with all of this chaos and uncertainty on
the tariff issue, and they don't know where to go
or what will work as they move forward. So everybody's
getting to a standstill kind of positioning, which is not
(31:59):
good for the companies, and it's certainly not good for
our states. So, you know, I while I recognize that
every new administration has the right and responsibility to you know,
put into place policies and procedures that they think are
(32:21):
necessary to move the country in a way that they
think appropriate, but doing it in this way where it's
just willingly one thing one day, another thing the next day,
isn't helpful not to move their agenda forward, but certainly
not to help our states stay on a path.
Speaker 12 (32:43):
Well, in your state specifically, Governor has more than fifty
thousand farms, and I wonder what you're hearing from farmers
specifically about the impact of tariffs on them and whether
they're going to need to count on subsidies from either
the state government or the federal government to offset the impact.
Speaker 8 (33:00):
Out Well, you know, we have two major industries here
in the state of Kansas.
Speaker 11 (33:05):
Aviation is one of them. And you know, as has been.
Speaker 8 (33:09):
In the paper, there are lots of issues going on
with the aviation issue industry as a result of these
tariffs and these sort of international battles that are going
on right now, but certainly in agriculture here in Kansas.
But then across the country.
Speaker 11 (33:24):
Uh. The tariffs create absolute havoc uh.
Speaker 8 (33:29):
And real concern for our farmers, you know, our you know,
I was the very first and maybe the only Democratic
governor who signed on to the USMCA, the trade deal
that the Trump administration put together in his first administration,
you know, dealing with our relationship with Canada and Mexico
(33:52):
and the United States. I signed out of that because
I thought it was in the best interests of Kansas,
you know. And now that's all being thrown out.
Speaker 11 (34:00):
Uh.
Speaker 8 (34:01):
And you know what's being it's nothing's really replacing it.
But what has happened is that our relationship, particularly with
our two biggest trade partners, Canada and Mexico, are in
a shambles. You know, our farmers very much depend upon
the potash that they get from Canada to fertilize their fields.
Speaker 11 (34:24):
Uh. You know, our UH are a lot of our.
Speaker 8 (34:28):
UH produce and stuff which we can't grow here, you know,
is brought in from Mexico.
Speaker 11 (34:35):
Our exports. You know, when, for instance, when the U.
Speaker 9 (34:38):
S a i.
Speaker 8 (34:39):
D Was sort of shut down, you know, moments after
he took office. You know, we had I don't know
how many millions of UH pounds of milo that was
sitting in silos here in the state of Kansas.
Speaker 11 (34:55):
Their only customer was the USDA.
Speaker 8 (34:58):
UH. They were growing this typically for them to use.
So my farmers are stuck with this stuff and the
market has been completely shut down. So there are a
lot of problems and we absolutely have got to come
to some resolution very quickly. And they don't want, you know,
(35:19):
a handout. You know, they got that the first time around.
You know, remember that tariffs were put in place in
the first Trump administration and they did backfill that with
with cash. The farmers don't want that, you know that
that's a band aid that doesn't do anything for them
going forward. I think their biggest fear with what's going
(35:41):
on right now is that, you know, not only are
they not able to sell their their product right now,
export their products right but that they will ultimately lose
their markets. That countries aren't going to wait forever, you know,
They're going to go find somebody else who can supply
(36:03):
what Kansas farmers.
Speaker 11 (36:04):
Have been supplying. So it is a huge.
Speaker 8 (36:07):
Concern and one that I hope this administration will wake
up to and finally deal with.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
Because Governor Kelly, we only have one minute left. I
want to give you an opportunity to Freebut what we're
going to hear this evening. Donald Trump carried your state
by more than sixteen points in twenty twenty four. What's
your message to voters on this one hundredth day of
the Trump administration.
Speaker 8 (36:31):
Well, you know, there's not a lot to say to
voters right now.
Speaker 11 (36:36):
You know, we don't have an election.
Speaker 8 (36:39):
You know, midterms aren't until twenty six, another presidential elections
not until twenty eight. But I would say to all
citizens that they need to make a lot of noise
about how this is really impacting them in their lives,
and they need to make that noise so that they're
(36:59):
Congress representatives hear them, you know, because what's happening right
now is impacting people all across this country, whether they're
talking about what they're thinking about doing with medicaid obviously,
what's happening with caraffs, and what's happening or governor system
(37:20):
lots and lots they need to get loud.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
We're glad you could be with us. Laura Kelly, the
governor of Kansas, chair of the Democratic Governors Association on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (37:30):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's during
on Apple Cocklay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg.
Speaker 7 (37:47):
Eleven thirty.
Speaker 12 (37:49):
Not just any Tuesday, of course, the day in which
President Trump is marking one hundred days back in the
White House. And of course over the last one hundred days,
we've seen a lot of action emany from the executive branch,
from President Trump himself, the signing of hundreds of executive
orders or memoranda, the implementation of tariffs and the like,
(38:09):
things that he hasn't really needed Congress to go with
them on, and Congress hasn't really expressed much interest in
countering him on that. But the problem, Joe is for
the next portion of the President's agenda, the next one
hundred days, he's going to need Congress, that's true, to
get a lot of what he would like to achieve
across the finish line.
Speaker 2 (38:28):
Well, if you think about it broadly too, I mean
that's when trade deals would need to be announced right
that the ninety day period would be wrapped up. We
have to deal with Trump tax cuts, and we could
get an X state this week that lands a debt
ceiling in the early summer. So yeah, the second hundred
days could be really interesting here, and it's where we
start our conversation with our panel as we round the
(38:49):
first one hundred Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano or here
Bloomberg Politics contributors. Ricks partner at Stone Cord Capital. Jeanie
is Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study
of the Presidency in Congress. One hundred days, everybody, Rick,
how much does President Trump have to show for the
first hundred days? But also how much news does he
need to make? Because there is an expectation he's going
(39:11):
to make an announcement, no mystery that he's in the
suburbs of Detroit here to make an announcement on auto
tariffs that we just heard from the White House. The
auto industry will be happy with the announcement, some relief
on tariffs that will prevent them from being stacked on
top of each other. Here, Rick, does he need to
bring the goods to Michigan.
Speaker 14 (39:32):
Yeah, First of all, I'm not sure it's a happy
one hundred days. I mean it's a pretty sober one
hundred days. You know, what everybody thought was going to
be open season on you know, investments and mergers and
IOPs and you know, less government regulation and more entrepreneurship
has turned into exactly the opposite, real serious questions about
(39:54):
global trade, attacking the Fed's independence. I mean this is
this has had a real salute or effect on the
economy and SMP down eight percent, worse than any present
sin since Gerald Ford in his first hundred days. And
we know what was going on back then. So the
reality is that I think today he's got a chance
(40:17):
to try and start peeling some of that back. Obviously,
they are forecasting release of some of these tariffs on
parts for car manufacturers. Good start, you kind of scratch
your head and go, okay, well, why did we do
that to begin with? I mean, like, you know, these
are parts that all go into automobiles that are going
to be made in the US ultimately, anyway, why did
(40:39):
we put tariffs.
Speaker 15 (40:39):
On him to begin with?
Speaker 16 (40:41):
And so I think there's going to be a lot
of that head scratching because hopefully this is the beginning
of a whole series of things, including, as you point out,
deals that we're making with other countries that will lower
the reciprocity tariffs, that reciprocal tariffs that were already put on.
Speaker 14 (40:58):
Well, you know, if we're going to cut the those deals,
why didn't we just reach out and say, hey, we're
going to cut a new deal with you before we
put these reciprocal tariffs on. I honestly don't really get
the strategy, but it's not working with the American public.
But tonight maybe we see the clawback on some of that.
Speaker 12 (41:16):
Well, and I wonder how much tonight we'll focus not
just on tariffs, Genie, but the other kind of domestically
oriented efforts that the President has undertaken, in part with
Elon Musk at his side, like the dramatic reduction in
the federal government, the complete dismantling of agencies like USAID
or the CFPB. Arguably, how much, Genie is his one
(41:38):
hundred days actually marked by something that could be, if
not a permanent change to the federal bureaucracy, something that
would take years to unwind even once he leaves office,
or rather than unwinding, perhaps rebuilding.
Speaker 15 (41:52):
Yeah, much of what he's done can take a long time.
You know, things he's done via EO, we usually say, well,
a new president could walk that back, but that's harder
in those areas you're talking about, Kayley, like the cuts
in DOGE. How do you bring a workforce back if
you want to do that? How do you rebuild departments?
I mean, just take USA as an example. You know
(42:14):
that's going to be a big, big challenge. And you know,
as I look at what the president is facing, he
certainly is not going to want to focus on the
economy tonight because the economy, according to every poll you
look at, is in disarrays. So he's gonna want to
talk about things like immigration and DOGE. But he's not
(42:36):
incredibly popular on that either, and so this is going
to be difficult. You know, Carl Rove got on Fox
News and said, the president has a huge problem, and
that is number one. His support as it pertains to
the economy, both short term and long term, has all
but plummeted and is in very bad shape. And Carl Grove,
(42:57):
as we know, is no liberal. So how do you
walk back from that? Very tough? And then I look
at the Atlantic Interview where that. The reporters asked him
point blank, is there any red line, any sign of
the US economy plummeting where you would say, Okay, enough
is enough, and I'm going to walk back from my
commitment to tariffs. And he said, no, there's no red line.
(43:18):
I've been committed to this for thirty years. Nothing could
change my mind. So that is a very soberat reality
as we look out there, and so I think it
leaves him with a real challenge tonight.
Speaker 2 (43:30):
Well, Rick, democrats are counting the ways here. The top
Democrats on the House and Senate Appropriations Committee are out
with a letter here. They've even created a tracker to
determine the billions of dollars in funding allocated by Congress
that has been blocked or withheld by this administration. This
is four hundred and thirty billion dollars according to Rosa
(43:52):
Deloro and Senator Patty Murray, four hundred and thirty billion
dollars for medical research, disaster relief aid to farmers. I
could go on here. It's almost like they're taking a
page out of Elon Musk. Remember the wall of receipts.
We now have a tracker to determine the money that's
not being spent. Is this the type of strategy that works?
Speaker 14 (44:13):
Yeah, I think it's important to realize they're kind of
like three buckets that everybody's talking about. There's that Doge
bucket that went from we're going to cut two trillion
dollars out of the budget to now we're going to
cut one hundred and fifty billion, right, and these are cuts,
these are things that will likely not come back. Then
there's this four hundred and thirty billion, which are things
they're just they're authorized to spend the money on, they're
(44:35):
just not spending it. Those checks aren't going out, the
funds aren't made available to the programs that have been
authorized by Congress to do. And that's what Congress is tracking, saying, hey,
this stuff is supposed to be done. There's a third
bucket that Russ Vot's about to send to Congress, which
is nine billion dollars of recisions. That means, here's money
(44:55):
you gave us, we're giving it back this we're not
going to spend that money. And so like, there is
a massive reduction in spending by the federal government going on,
none of which we can really track effectively right now.
And By the way, we talk as if the first
hundred days is at the end of the administration. We
have three years and four hundred days left to this
(45:21):
administration and we're just getting started. So I think you've
anticipate this fight continuing for a long time.
Speaker 12 (45:29):
Well, it certainly is incredible to consider the more than
thirteen hundred days that we.
Speaker 7 (45:35):
Still have left.
Speaker 12 (45:36):
But of course the President may be thinking about a
kind of more immediate deadline here, Genie is he wants
to make sure he can get a maximum amount done
with control of both chambers of Congress. Right now Republicans
have control that could change after the midterms next year,
which is why they're trying to force through this budget
reconciliation package with his tax cuts included, as quickly as possible.
(45:58):
The Treasury Secretary says, now July fourth is really the
target to.
Speaker 7 (46:02):
Get this done.
Speaker 12 (46:02):
It had previously been touted by the Speaker of the House.
Is something that would be accomplished at least in that
chamber by Memorial Day, knowing that the debt ceiling could
be a factor in here as well. Is this really
going to be something that can be completed by the
August recess? Given the difficulty of some of the subject
matter that Republicans are going to have to tackle in
the coming weeks.
Speaker 15 (46:24):
Yeah, they really want to just ruin your summer, Kaylee.
Forget about the beach. You're going to be working, work,
and work in either Memorial Day July fourth. It's going
to be tough either way. I think, in an odd way,
the fact that the debt ceiling they may come up
to it may light a fire under them. But either way,
there is going to be a lot of inter party
squabbling on these issues because we've got these small groups
(46:47):
of Republicans who are committed and they, unlike Donald Trump,
when it comes to tariffs, they don't they do have
a redline that they won't go over. I mean, we
were just talking about clawbacks, and you've even got a
group of Republicans in Congress who say, we don't want
clawbacks of the IRA quite frankly, we like those investments
(47:08):
that Joe Biden made. Then you've got the other deficit hawks,
and then of course you've got the folks on Salt,
which you know is one of my personal favorites. Then
you know, you've also got folks who are saying we're
gonna draw a red line as it pertains to something else.
And so these groups are gonna have to come together
and figure this out, and it's gonna be hard to
(47:28):
do in a short period of time. And of course
Donald Trump is running some right smack dab into a
Madisonian government. It's all about divided power. Everything he's done
this first hundred days has been unilateral executive power. Now
he's got to deal with this other branch he's been
able to run over for some time. But if they
look at the same pole askar Rova's looking at, they
(47:49):
may decide it's not in their interest and they indeed
could lose their seats if they go along with what
the president is proposing. So I think July fourth is ambitious,
you know. But Scott Besten's a smart guy. Maybe he
knows something I don't, But I think it's an ambitious timeline.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
Does that unilateral approach rick that genie describes the playbook
for the next one hundred days?
Speaker 15 (48:14):
Yeah, I don't think so.
Speaker 13 (48:16):
You know.
Speaker 14 (48:17):
Look, I mean, even though Donald Trump did a lot
of things through executive order, which you'll continue to do
throughout his presidency, all they do is pick up the
front page of any newspaper tale. I'm going to issue
an executive order on that today. That seems to be
his MO. But remember, Congress gave him his cabinet. There
were hearings, there were the votes in the House in
the Senate to confirm every member of his administration's cabinet.
(48:41):
And they members had lots of opportunity there to hang
people up and make it quote worth their while on
a policy basis, but they didn't do it. And now
they're all rallying around, you know, the big, beautiful Reconciliation bill,
and I have no doubt that's what will become law.
Speaker 7 (49:01):
All right.
Speaker 12 (49:02):
Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano our political panel, thank you
so much joining us as we mark one hundred days
in office for President Trump and look ahead to his
big speech in Michigan tonight, again slated for six pm.
Speaker 2 (49:18):
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern
at Bloomberg dot com.
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