Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Here for the latest on markets, which have been listening
very closely to the conversation in Stockholm. That's where Scott
Bessett and Jamison Greer, the Treasury Secretary and US Trade representative,
have just finished briefing reporters who waited hours for a
readout on their negotiating session with the Chinese, and we
want to bring you into that conference room in Stockholm
(00:46):
right now. Bloomberg Europe correspondent Oliver Crook was there for
the back and forth with Bessett and Greer and joins
us now with a live update. Give us a sense
of the mood in that room, Oliver. We appreciate your
reporting today. Took him a long time to come out,
and while Scott Besstt tried to frame this as a
productive meeting, there are questions about some of the sticking points.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
That remain.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
Absolutely I think you've got to correct read on the situation.
After two days of discussions that we've had between the
Vice Premier of China, Scott Best At the US Treasury
Secretary Ambassador gree on the trade side, trying to hammer
out the details to get what we were sort of
hoping was a rubber stamp ninety day extension to those
trade tariffs that are that have been put on hold
with China that are are slated to come back into
(01:31):
effect on August the twelfth, very very high rates of
tariff if they do not have an agreement. They were
not able to conclude that conversation and come to an agreement.
In the meetings over the last two days. They did
make a lot of positive signals about how conversations were going,
that they were very productive, that they are now going
to go back to Washington, DC to consult with the president,
and it sounds like this is really going to come
(01:53):
down to the President of the United States whether or
not he approves this extension. We do know that the
most likely outcome if there is an extent is another
ninety day extension. A lot of positive noises, again, there
was no mention of a possible summit between Trump and
Chiji Ping. It seems that we are pretty far from
that in terms of where we are on negotiations. That
is not something that appears eminent. And they also, I mean,
(02:13):
we also heard from Jameison Greer saying that they never
want to talk about magnets again as far as they're concerned,
that issue is settled with the Chinese and they'd like
to see those continue to flow. That has been agreed.
But I do think that one of the sort of
salient points here and one of the most important points,
was really the reiterating by the US Treasury Secretary about
this issue of Russian oil and secondary sanction something that
it sounds like we just heard again from the President
(02:33):
of the United States that if there is not meaningful
efforts from Vladimir Putin to come to a ceasefire in Ukraine,
that you could see those secondary sanctions implemented on Russia
that could be anywhere from one hundred percent tariffs on
anybody who's buying crude oil from Ussia to five hundred
percent tariffs on anybody who's buying fossil fuels from Russia.
And obviously China is a very large consumer there, and
he was saying that the Chinese, they talked about this.
(02:56):
The Chinese are very sort of concerned with their own
sovereignty and it's up to them if they want to
pay one hundred percent tariffs on Russian oil.
Speaker 5 (03:03):
Yep, ten days from now, according to President Trump. Bloomberg's
Oliver Krook, reporting live for US from Stockholm. Thank you
so much, of course, the latest on the outcome of
talks between the US and China. An outcome, I think
it's fair to say remains uncertain. So on that note,
we go back now to Anna Ashton of Ashton Analytics,
a China expert who joined us earlier on Bloomberg TV
and Radio Anda. Now that we've heard from Bessett and
(03:24):
Greer about what was and was not discussed today, would
you describe this third round of talks as significant forward
progress or is this just stasis?
Speaker 6 (03:34):
Gosh killy, you know, I think my biggest takeaway was
that it seems like the US is trying to kind
of flip the script. We talked before the press conference
about whether or not China had a decisive upper hand
because of its monopoly on rare earth and magnets, and
I said, yeah, I think they do because there's there's
(03:57):
more room for them to hold the line and and
also upper compromises than there is given the political pressures
for the US to hold the line or upper compromises
on export controls. I think they're trying to make it
not about export controls. They're trying to make this a
balanced rollback, as Latinix said of tariffs in exchange for
(04:22):
you know, a continued or increased flow of rare earth
and magnets. And then they're also throwing in the threat
of secondary sanctions.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Uh.
Speaker 6 (04:31):
And you know, it seems like that's that seems like
a sound play on the part of the Trump administration
in terms of trying to find effective leverage. I think
that is effective leverage given the fact that the level
of tariffs that could be imposed in a snapback would
be really, really high and certainly would do damage to
(04:53):
a Chinese economy that is already kind of, you know,
struggling to gain momentum. I thought it was it's interesting
how how much Basant emphasized the success so far of
the tariff's strategy. It's clear that, you know, the the
point they're trying to drive home is that they're not
They're not backing away from their tariff's strategy, and tariffs
(05:16):
will continue to loom as a threat if China is
not sufficiently cooperative, and of course two thirty two tariffs
could be part of that.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Scott Bessen't seemed a bit mythed that the Chinese told
reporters they had an agreement to extend the deadline, reiterating
that only Donald Trump could approve that, and the President
has not made this clear. What did you think of
the body language, the tone. Are these actors getting along
or not?
Speaker 6 (05:48):
I'm sure it was tense, and I think, you know,
the Chinese side has had its its opportunities to be
frustrated with the way that Beasant and other members of
the Trump administration have characterized previous rounds of talk, And
perhaps that's why Vice Commerce Minister Lee decided to go
ahead and lean into his interpretation of the outcome of
(06:11):
this this round of talks. You know, I could easily
see them, you know, caveating and reply to Bestn't that
they just meant an agreement in principle. Of course, they
just meant an agreement in principle. They both have to
go back to their respective leaders for approval of anything
they agree to.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Really great to have you with us, Ashton Ashton Analytics,
and many thanks for being so generous with your time
watching and listening to this conversation for us so we
can bring the best analysis to our viewers and listeners.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You
can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship
New York State and just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Kayley, we want to mention another breaking story right now,
as we've alluded to a couple of times, Donald Trump
is briefing reporters on Air Force One, or at least
was a short time ago, making news not only on
trade but also on geopolitics specific to Russia. Remembering yesterday
he said he might move up the deadline for Russia
to reach peace in Ukraine, promising the secondary sanctions that
(07:28):
we were just talking about. He's now given it ten days.
Donald Trump says Russia has ten more days to reach
a truce in Ukraine. It is moving oil prices right now.
We've seen crude oil move back above sixty eight dollars
a barrel on this headline, and we want to bring
in Mara Rudman for more on this, professor at the
University of Virginia's Miller Center, former US diplomat back on
(07:48):
Bloomberg TV and Radio. Mara, your reaction following President Trump's
visit to Scotland this weekend to this more intense rhetoric
when it comes to Russia. He said that moving the
deadline has not resulted in any progress yet. Will this
headline make that different?
Speaker 3 (08:07):
John Kay, good to be back with you. I'm not
sure that Donald Trump saying it, or saying it louder,
or shortening the number of days is what's going to
make the difference. I hope what Donald Trump is learning
and seeing is that the United States is much stronger
in whatever it says and whatever it moves to do
when we have friends and allies with us who are
(08:29):
like minded and approach and it's worth nurturing and building
and spending time and attention with those relationships. And I
hope some of what we're seeing from him as a
result of that.
Speaker 5 (08:42):
Well, but what will the results of that ultimately be?
Mara It's one thing for President Trump's attitude to change,
it's entirely another for President Putin's. Do you expect that
will happen?
Speaker 6 (08:54):
Well?
Speaker 3 (08:54):
I think President Putin is constantly, not unlike President Trump,
calculating where his interests lie and how to achieve them.
And so the question of secondary sanctions, of how much pain, frankly,
can be inflicted on the Russian economy, and the extent
to which there's the capacity to keep or limit China
(09:15):
from helping or bailing out Russia in the way that
they have. All of those things are going to factor
into whether we ultimately see changes from Putin. I don't
think he is suicidal. He wants to continue to rule
and he wants his country to remain allied with him.
But it's not clear how quickly we will see turns
(09:38):
because of how deeply entrenched his issues are and going
into Ukraine, and how rightfully entrenched the Ukrainians are in
having the Russians depart and stop their offensive.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
We've spent the bulk of our program today, Marrow talking
about trade, whether it's with regard to China, the EU,
or any other partner that is facing a deadline. Here
coming up next month, whether be the first or the twelfth,
And a lot of that talk has revolved around the
idea of the taco trade, the fact that the markets
are still near all time highs despite the great uncertainty,
(10:12):
and I wonder if there's an element of that here.
Does Vladimir Putin actually believe that Donald Trump will go
through with the threats that he's making.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
Yeah, it's a fair question. And there's plenty of reason
to see inconsistency in President Trump and his actions and
so both in terms of the economy and in terms
of how other world leaders look at and assess the
United States. It will be important for President Trump to
be able to display and act with some degree of
(10:43):
consistency and not constant not shivot his positions by sometimes
up to one hundred and eighty degrees overnight. And again,
we have too little in the mix now to know
whether he's capable of doing that.
Speaker 6 (10:57):
Well.
Speaker 5 (10:57):
As we consider President Trump's shifting position, we saw a
notable break yesterday between him and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Nyahu on another issue, which is the situation with hunger
in Gaza. Net Nyahu obviously not characterizing it as starvation.
President Trump says he begs to differ and thinks the
images don't lie. But he also just said a board
Air Force one that he thinks Israel could do a
(11:18):
good job with food centers in Gaza. How much do
you expect the pressure on Netanyahu and Israel specifically to
ramp up from President Trump?
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Well, again, I think the question here is one of consistency,
because while I appreciate the fact that he acknowledged the
very real facts on the ground in terms of the
human lives and the suffering that is occurring in Gaza,
and was able to acknowledge that while Hamas has a
role in that for sure, and brought all of this
(11:50):
upon the people of Gaza, that Israel's actions are also culpable.
He needs to be able to continue with that kind
of approach to present solution sets, and there are some
within Israel who also want to see that who have
a different view than Prime Mister Netanyahu. Notable among those
who would support some of the solution sets. Others are
(12:12):
bringing forward to the Israeli military, who frankly wanted the
original system of food distribution and humanitarian aid to continue
and were overruled by the political elements of Prime Minister
Netanyahu and those around him.
Speaker 5 (12:27):
All right. Mara Rudman, professor at the University of Virginia's
Miller Center and former US diplomat joining us here on
Balance of Power, Thank you so much. And President Trump
just speaking again on Gaza a board Air Force one
to reporter, saying those kids are starving and that everyone
thinks Gaza photos are horrible. But he also is commenting
on the other news we're dealing with, of course, the
US and China wrapping a second day of meetings in Stockholm,
(12:50):
President Trump saying that while we understand it wasn't discussed
at the meeting, he does think that Chinese President Xijinping
wants to meet and that will probably happen before the
end of the year.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Joe having taken the truth social earlier to make clear
that he was not asking for an invitation, that the
Chinese were in fact sending one. Whether that summit happens,
we'll let you know as we wait to learn much
more about the deal, the framework at least that was
struck in whether President Trump is going to sign off
on all of this. Thanks for listening to the Balance
of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't
(13:21):
already at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,
and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,
DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com