September 24, 2024 • 15 mins
Talk of de-dollarization has been gaining momentum among China, India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa in the wake of significant US led sanctions on Russia. Former US President and candidate Donald Trump has said the currency is under attack — and that any country that shuns it would face new tariffs on imports if he is elected.
On today's Big Take Asia Podcast, host K. Oanh Ha talks to Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin about the unique role the dollar plays in the world economy — and what, if anything, could replace it.
Read more: The Dollar’s Dominance, Explained
Further listening: Odd Lots Podcast – How the US Dollar Became an International Weapon of War
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. Former President Donald Trump
says the US dollar is under attack and.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
We will keep the US dollar as the world's reserve
currency and is currently under major siege.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Many countries are leaving the dollar.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Since the spring, Trump has been expressing concern over the
idea that other countries may want to move away from
the dollar, and he's announced plans to try to keep
that from happening. This is from a rally he held
in Wisconsin this month.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
They're not going to leave the dollar with me. I'll say,
you leave the dollar, you're not doing business with the
United States, because we're gonna put one hundred percent tariff
on your goods. Sir, We would like very much to
get back to the dollar immediately, Thank you very much.
It's so easy.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
Trump he pioneered new ways of using tariffs as a
weapon of stay craft during his first presidency.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
The most is Bloomberg Senior Washington correspondent and host of
Our Big Take DC podcast.
Speaker 4 (01:05):
And he is already promising to go full board next time,
even deploy this giant tariff to protect apparently the US dollar.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Welcome to the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons, and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
could the US dollar really lose its special status as
the world's reserve currency and could the Chinese yun replace it? Sileia,
(01:43):
you have this new book out all about the dollar,
paper Soldiers, how the weaponization of the dollar changed the
world order. Remind us how the dollar became the world's
reserve currency in the first place.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
So the owner of the world's reserve asset is always
the world's largest economy. So before the US, it was
Great Britain, and in the eighteen eighties the US outstripped
Great Britain in terms of sheer economic size. But it
didn't happen so quickly. It was nineteen forty four, after
two World Wars, when the economic policymakers of forty four
(02:19):
Allied nations gathered together for what later became the Bretonwoods Agreement,
and they all decided that the best way to avoid
another World war would be to create an economic brotherhood
where the world economy is knitted close together around shared
economic goals and They decided at that meeting that the
(02:40):
US dollar, because of the US's economic size, and also
because of the US is very good fiscal trajectory at
the time, that the US dollars should be the anchor
currency for the global financial system. And two other important
things happened. The World Bank was created and the International
Monetary un recreated, and all of that put together made
(03:03):
the US and its dollar become the world's reserve asset.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
And of course, the dollars maintained its strength it has
the dollar is still strong.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
Now. There are two definitions of a strong dollar. There's
strength in terms of foreign exchange rate, how it compares
to another currency, the yen that you on the euro.
The second definition of a strong dollar is its sheer dominance.
The whole global financial system is underpinned by the dollar.
That gives the dollar a lot of strength and power.
(03:34):
And that is another definition to a strong dollar.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
And how is it, or actually, why is it that
other countries are incentivized to use dollars.
Speaker 4 (03:43):
There's a couple of reasons. One, it's a safe investment.
You will always get a return on that investment. You
can park your cash a foreign central bank, a foreign
multinational company, a foreign individual can buy US government debt
or have any of their asset in American stocks, anything
that is denominated in dollars coming out of the US,
(04:06):
you are going to get a return on your investment
because the US has a lot of economic innovation that
is driven by its very huge fiscal deficit. It is
also the owner of the world's most powerful military, which
is also driven by our huge fiscal deficits.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
But now we have Donald Trump out there basically saying
the dollar is in danger of losing its special status,
and he's saying that other countries are actually leaving the dollar.
Why is he saying that now? I mean, are there
other countries actually thinking about trading less with the dollar?
Speaker 4 (04:41):
He has since March been publicly showing that he has
paid attention to the d dollarization discussion and actions that
have launched since the US led economic sanctions on Russia.
It was really the economic sanctions package in February twenty
twenty too when they invaded Ukraine, and that was a
(05:02):
massive package, and what it did was heavily curtail Russia's
access to the dollar, including its central bank. It really
put allies even and then a lot of adversaries on
guard that the US is willing to go quite far
to fight a proxy war with another country in terms
of weaponizing the dollar. And so you see the bricks
(05:25):
plus economies. It's Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and
it's a growing club of economies coming together saying let's
put our heads together and find a way to trade
less with the dollar and have our own shared currency
so that we're less beholden two US economic sanctions in
(05:46):
case we run a foul of whoever the sitting president
might be.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Now, Trump has said he'll answer those concerns about trading
less with the dollar with some really big, sweeping new tariffs.
He said, if he wins a second tur he'll put
in place a ten percent across the board tariff and
on goods imported from China, it's going to go as
high as sixty percent. That sounds like a real ramp up,
(06:11):
certainly from his first term as president. What do you
make of that?
Speaker 4 (06:15):
Yeah, you know, he's noticed the economic sanctions fatigue that
is out there. He talks about how you need to
be judicious in use of economic sanctions, and maybe tariffs
is the way to go, because if you're using tariffs.
On the surface of it, it looks like you are
leveraging the US consumer market rather than leveraging the strength
(06:35):
of a dollar to sort of carry out your economic
policy goals.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Isn't Trump himself responsible for some countries looking to dedollarize
with his threat of tariffs and sanctions.
Speaker 4 (06:46):
Trump is not the only president who bears responsibility. I
would say every president since nine to eleven has used
economic sanctions to achieve foreign policy goals. And if you
get a chart of the use of economic nations, the
line just goes straight up. And they went up a
lot under Obama as well, they went up even more
(07:07):
under Trump and then even more under Biden.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
After the break, how the US and China have tussled
over allegations of currency manipulation in the past, and could
the Chinese yun replace the US dollar as a world's
reserve currency. We've been talking about former President Donald Trump
(07:39):
and concerns that the US dollar could be replaced as
a world's reserve currency, and when it comes to the
dollar in global trade, Trump's also accused other countries of
currency manipulation, and one country he's pointed the finger at
repeatedly is China.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
But that's happening, and it's happening even worse with China.
They manipulate their currency better than any country in the
history of the world in history history. And we are
now working on a new trade deal with China, but
it must include real structural change to and unfair trade practices.
(08:19):
Not only has China declined to adopt Promise reforms, it
has embraced an economic model dependent on massive market barriers,
heavy state subsidies, currency manipulation product.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
And besides China, there are other Asian countries that the
US Treasury Department says it's monitoring for currency practices, places
like Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Japan was added to
the list this summer. What is the US's concern overall
about what could happen with these other currencies.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
The general concern is just that countries will meddle with
the terms of trade, with the natural laws of supply
and demand, and keep down the value of their currencies
against the dollar in order to capitalize on the US
consumer market. And that is not good for American manufacturers
(09:15):
and companies and blue collar workers. In the mid two
thousands and around, the global financial crisis. There allegedly was
a case to be made to charge China with actual
currency manipulation, but the US decided not to do it
because they wanted China's cooperation and they were trying to
sort of use backdoor channels and talks to slowly wean
(09:38):
China off that habit.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
And of course that relationship between the US and China
has been a symbiotic one, right, which you also talk
in the book as well. I mean, how does that
work through currency?
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Yeah, and it's a chapter that I call a turbulent
marriage because the US and China they need each other.
They are deeply entrenched with each other still, but they're
at odds with each other. Now. The example that I
can give is that in the aftermath of the global
financial crisis in two thousand and eight, you know, it
was an American made crisis that spilled into the rest
of the world. Everyone suffered, and the Chinese had a
(10:12):
humongous holding of assets in US dollars, whether it was
shares or ownership stocks and Fanny and Freddy or in
US treasuries are US government bonds. So if treasuries and
the US economy was not doing well, it was bad
for China because of their investments. And so China couldn't say, Okay,
(10:34):
we're pulling out of the US economy because as they
would pull out of this massive stake, you know, the
first ten percent, maybe you'd win, and then the next
ninety percent, prices would just plummet and you would take
a loss. Right, And the US also realized that we
need to keep in close contact with China because we
need their support. We don't want them to pull out.
And that relationship, just that one tiny example, it tells
(10:58):
you how deeply integrated the two countries are.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
We've talked a lot about Trump and his plans to
try to protect the US economy and its status as
a world's reserve currency. What do we know about what
his opponent, Kamala Harris has said or has in mind
to you know, around the dollar.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
We don't know anything we have not heard. There is
an absolute paucity of policy when it comes to Harris's
campaign right now. We don't know much about her foreign
policy or her international economic diplomacy and plans. Part of
that has to do with the fact that she launched
her campaign veryy late. Part of it has to do
with the fact that she could rely on the Biden
(11:36):
administration and lean on some of those policies.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
Okay, so we've talked a lot about concerns that the
dollar could be replaced as a world's reserve currency. But
based on your reporting, how likely is it that this
could actually happen.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
One thing to point out is that the tide is turning,
but only in terms of rhetoric. No one has abandoned
the dollar. There is slightly less trade in the dollar
compared to before, but it will be very hard to
actually supplant the dollar. There's three main reasons for that.
It's because the dollar is big, it's stable, and it's entrenched.
(12:15):
So the dollar rules because the US economy is the biggest.
It is almost biggest, as numbers two, three, and four
on that list. China, Japan, and Germany combined banknotes have
the words in God we trust printed on them. But
it's the strength of American institutions that underpin investors faith
in the dollar, rule of law, independent institutions, pre and
(12:39):
fair elections, and as I illustrate in paper soldiers, the
Treasury secretaries in the way they've dealt with foreign governments.
The dollar has this power of incumbency on its side.
You know, it's like trying to say the English is
not going to be the world's universal language. So that's
sort of a starting point. But there is death definitely
(13:01):
more discussion about de dollarization. It's a lot of rhetoric,
a few small moves. Now, nothing would happen quickly. This
could take a decade, maybe two decades to actually play out.
But it would mean that multinational companies, smaller emerging markets,
frontier markets, and mid size economies would need to consider
(13:22):
how they trade. So it's really hard to say exactly
how this would play out. In the past, it's taken
an economic crisis for a world's reserve asset to be dethroned.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
Obviously, it would have huge ramifications for the global economy.
But you know, you do have China, the world's second
largest economy. Could China Could the yon be a currency
that supplants the dollar potentially? I mean, is there a
contender to supplant the dollar?
Speaker 4 (13:52):
There really isn't contender. A lot of people talk about
the Chinese run. Now, China's economy is the world's second largest,
but it is still second play a long gap. The
other thing is that investors are really tied to the
world's reserve asset being backed by a democracy, an open democracy,
and that is not what China has. And the reason
(14:15):
investors want democracy underpinning the anchor to the world's financial
system is because that comes with transparency, which is also
something that the Chinese yan doesn't offer.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
wan ha. This episode was produced by Jessica Beck and
Young Young. It was mixed by Blake Maples and fact
checked by Thomas lou It was edited by Kaitlin Kenney.
Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Nicole Memester Bower is
our executive producer, and Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts.
(14:51):
So Lea's book Paper Soldiers, How the Weaponization of the
Dollar Changed the World Order is now available in Korean
and Chinese translations. Please follow and review The Big Take
Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps new listeners
find the show. See you next time.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. Former President Donald Trump
says the US dollar is under attack and.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
We will keep the US dollar as the world's reserve
currency and is currently under major siege.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Many countries are leaving the dollar.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Since the spring, Trump has been expressing concern over the
idea that other countries may want to move away from
the dollar, and he's announced plans to try to keep
that from happening. This is from a rally he held
in Wisconsin this month.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
They're not going to leave the dollar with me. I'll say,
you leave the dollar, you're not doing business with the
United States, because we're gonna put one hundred percent tariff
on your goods. Sir, We would like very much to
get back to the dollar immediately, Thank you very much.
It's so easy.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
Trump he pioneered new ways of using tariffs as a
weapon of stay craft during his first presidency.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
The most is Bloomberg Senior Washington correspondent and host of
Our Big Take DC podcast.
Speaker 4 (01:05):
And he is already promising to go full board next time,
even deploy this giant tariff to protect apparently the US dollar.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Welcome to the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons, and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
could the US dollar really lose its special status as
the world's reserve currency and could the Chinese yun replace it? Sileia,
(01:43):
you have this new book out all about the dollar,
paper Soldiers, how the weaponization of the dollar changed the
world order. Remind us how the dollar became the world's
reserve currency in the first place.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
So the owner of the world's reserve asset is always
the world's largest economy. So before the US, it was
Great Britain, and in the eighteen eighties the US outstripped
Great Britain in terms of sheer economic size. But it
didn't happen so quickly. It was nineteen forty four, after
two World Wars, when the economic policymakers of forty four
(02:19):
Allied nations gathered together for what later became the Bretonwoods Agreement,
and they all decided that the best way to avoid
another World war would be to create an economic brotherhood
where the world economy is knitted close together around shared
economic goals and They decided at that meeting that the
(02:40):
US dollar, because of the US's economic size, and also
because of the US is very good fiscal trajectory at
the time, that the US dollars should be the anchor
currency for the global financial system. And two other important
things happened. The World Bank was created and the International
Monetary un recreated, and all of that put together made
(03:03):
the US and its dollar become the world's reserve asset.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
And of course, the dollars maintained its strength it has
the dollar is still strong.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
Now. There are two definitions of a strong dollar. There's
strength in terms of foreign exchange rate, how it compares
to another currency, the yen that you on the euro.
The second definition of a strong dollar is its sheer dominance.
The whole global financial system is underpinned by the dollar.
That gives the dollar a lot of strength and power.
(03:34):
And that is another definition to a strong dollar.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
And how is it, or actually, why is it that
other countries are incentivized to use dollars.
Speaker 4 (03:43):
There's a couple of reasons. One, it's a safe investment.
You will always get a return on that investment. You
can park your cash a foreign central bank, a foreign
multinational company, a foreign individual can buy US government debt
or have any of their asset in American stocks, anything
that is denominated in dollars coming out of the US,
(04:06):
you are going to get a return on your investment
because the US has a lot of economic innovation that
is driven by its very huge fiscal deficit. It is
also the owner of the world's most powerful military, which
is also driven by our huge fiscal deficits.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
But now we have Donald Trump out there basically saying
the dollar is in danger of losing its special status,
and he's saying that other countries are actually leaving the dollar.
Why is he saying that now? I mean, are there
other countries actually thinking about trading less with the dollar?
Speaker 4 (04:41):
He has since March been publicly showing that he has
paid attention to the d dollarization discussion and actions that
have launched since the US led economic sanctions on Russia.
It was really the economic sanctions package in February twenty
twenty too when they invaded Ukraine, and that was a
(05:02):
massive package, and what it did was heavily curtail Russia's
access to the dollar, including its central bank. It really
put allies even and then a lot of adversaries on
guard that the US is willing to go quite far
to fight a proxy war with another country in terms
of weaponizing the dollar. And so you see the bricks
(05:25):
plus economies. It's Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and
it's a growing club of economies coming together saying let's
put our heads together and find a way to trade
less with the dollar and have our own shared currency
so that we're less beholden two US economic sanctions in
(05:46):
case we run a foul of whoever the sitting president
might be.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Now, Trump has said he'll answer those concerns about trading
less with the dollar with some really big, sweeping new tariffs.
He said, if he wins a second tur he'll put
in place a ten percent across the board tariff and
on goods imported from China, it's going to go as
high as sixty percent. That sounds like a real ramp up,
(06:11):
certainly from his first term as president. What do you
make of that?
Speaker 4 (06:15):
Yeah, you know, he's noticed the economic sanctions fatigue that
is out there. He talks about how you need to
be judicious in use of economic sanctions, and maybe tariffs
is the way to go, because if you're using tariffs.
On the surface of it, it looks like you are
leveraging the US consumer market rather than leveraging the strength
(06:35):
of a dollar to sort of carry out your economic
policy goals.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Isn't Trump himself responsible for some countries looking to dedollarize
with his threat of tariffs and sanctions.
Speaker 4 (06:46):
Trump is not the only president who bears responsibility. I
would say every president since nine to eleven has used
economic sanctions to achieve foreign policy goals. And if you
get a chart of the use of economic nations, the
line just goes straight up. And they went up a
lot under Obama as well, they went up even more
(07:07):
under Trump and then even more under Biden.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
After the break, how the US and China have tussled
over allegations of currency manipulation in the past, and could
the Chinese yun replace the US dollar as a world's
reserve currency. We've been talking about former President Donald Trump
(07:39):
and concerns that the US dollar could be replaced as
a world's reserve currency, and when it comes to the
dollar in global trade, Trump's also accused other countries of
currency manipulation, and one country he's pointed the finger at
repeatedly is China.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
But that's happening, and it's happening even worse with China.
They manipulate their currency better than any country in the
history of the world in history history. And we are
now working on a new trade deal with China, but
it must include real structural change to and unfair trade practices.
(08:19):
Not only has China declined to adopt Promise reforms, it
has embraced an economic model dependent on massive market barriers,
heavy state subsidies, currency manipulation product.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
And besides China, there are other Asian countries that the
US Treasury Department says it's monitoring for currency practices, places
like Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Japan was added to
the list this summer. What is the US's concern overall
about what could happen with these other currencies.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
The general concern is just that countries will meddle with
the terms of trade, with the natural laws of supply
and demand, and keep down the value of their currencies
against the dollar in order to capitalize on the US
consumer market. And that is not good for American manufacturers
(09:15):
and companies and blue collar workers. In the mid two
thousands and around, the global financial crisis. There allegedly was
a case to be made to charge China with actual
currency manipulation, but the US decided not to do it
because they wanted China's cooperation and they were trying to
sort of use backdoor channels and talks to slowly wean
(09:38):
China off that habit.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
And of course that relationship between the US and China
has been a symbiotic one, right, which you also talk
in the book as well. I mean, how does that
work through currency?
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Yeah, and it's a chapter that I call a turbulent
marriage because the US and China they need each other.
They are deeply entrenched with each other still, but they're
at odds with each other. Now. The example that I
can give is that in the aftermath of the global
financial crisis in two thousand and eight, you know, it
was an American made crisis that spilled into the rest
of the world. Everyone suffered, and the Chinese had a
(10:12):
humongous holding of assets in US dollars, whether it was
shares or ownership stocks and Fanny and Freddy or in
US treasuries are US government bonds. So if treasuries and
the US economy was not doing well, it was bad
for China because of their investments. And so China couldn't say, Okay,
(10:34):
we're pulling out of the US economy because as they
would pull out of this massive stake, you know, the
first ten percent, maybe you'd win, and then the next
ninety percent, prices would just plummet and you would take
a loss. Right, And the US also realized that we
need to keep in close contact with China because we
need their support. We don't want them to pull out.
And that relationship, just that one tiny example, it tells
(10:58):
you how deeply integrated the two countries are.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
We've talked a lot about Trump and his plans to
try to protect the US economy and its status as
a world's reserve currency. What do we know about what
his opponent, Kamala Harris has said or has in mind
to you know, around the dollar.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
We don't know anything we have not heard. There is
an absolute paucity of policy when it comes to Harris's
campaign right now. We don't know much about her foreign
policy or her international economic diplomacy and plans. Part of
that has to do with the fact that she launched
her campaign veryy late. Part of it has to do
with the fact that she could rely on the Biden
(11:36):
administration and lean on some of those policies.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
Okay, so we've talked a lot about concerns that the
dollar could be replaced as a world's reserve currency. But
based on your reporting, how likely is it that this
could actually happen.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
One thing to point out is that the tide is turning,
but only in terms of rhetoric. No one has abandoned
the dollar. There is slightly less trade in the dollar
compared to before, but it will be very hard to
actually supplant the dollar. There's three main reasons for that.
It's because the dollar is big, it's stable, and it's entrenched.
(12:15):
So the dollar rules because the US economy is the biggest.
It is almost biggest, as numbers two, three, and four
on that list. China, Japan, and Germany combined banknotes have
the words in God we trust printed on them. But
it's the strength of American institutions that underpin investors faith
in the dollar, rule of law, independent institutions, pre and
(12:39):
fair elections, and as I illustrate in paper soldiers, the
Treasury secretaries in the way they've dealt with foreign governments.
The dollar has this power of incumbency on its side.
You know, it's like trying to say the English is
not going to be the world's universal language. So that's
sort of a starting point. But there is death definitely
(13:01):
more discussion about de dollarization. It's a lot of rhetoric,
a few small moves. Now, nothing would happen quickly. This
could take a decade, maybe two decades to actually play out.
But it would mean that multinational companies, smaller emerging markets,
frontier markets, and mid size economies would need to consider
(13:22):
how they trade. So it's really hard to say exactly
how this would play out. In the past, it's taken
an economic crisis for a world's reserve asset to be dethroned.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
Obviously, it would have huge ramifications for the global economy.
But you know, you do have China, the world's second
largest economy. Could China Could the yon be a currency
that supplants the dollar potentially? I mean, is there a
contender to supplant the dollar?
Speaker 4 (13:52):
There really isn't contender. A lot of people talk about
the Chinese run. Now, China's economy is the world's second largest,
but it is still second play a long gap. The
other thing is that investors are really tied to the
world's reserve asset being backed by a democracy, an open democracy,
and that is not what China has. And the reason
(14:15):
investors want democracy underpinning the anchor to the world's financial
system is because that comes with transparency, which is also
something that the Chinese yan doesn't offer.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
wan ha. This episode was produced by Jessica Beck and
Young Young. It was mixed by Blake Maples and fact
checked by Thomas lou It was edited by Kaitlin Kenney.
Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Nicole Memester Bower is
our executive producer, and Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts.
(14:51):
So Lea's book Paper Soldiers, How the Weaponization of the
Dollar Changed the World Order is now available in Korean
and Chinese translations. Please follow and review The Big Take
Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps new listeners
find the show. See you next time.
Hosts And Creators
Sarah Holder
Saleha Mohsin
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