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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg, Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Another week, another title weight of AI news, major investments.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
The Disney story, a billion dollar investment from this iconic
from the House of Mouse in open AI.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
And some significant share drops.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Oracle sank fourteen percent.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Investors are worried about whether all the money Oracle is
spending on AI technology will pay off.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
There's an enormous amount of money flowing in and out
of the AI industry right now.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
It's just such an all encompassing, all pervasive theme.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Suzanne Woolley covers personal finance for Bloomberg.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
It's what everyone's talking about, It's what everyone's worried about.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
We've heard a lot of promise, but not a lot
of actual revenue coming from the companies that are spending
so much on building out AI. If a few of
these big AI hyperscalers have a bit of a hiccup,
we could see a lot of the other market taken
down with them.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Every few weeks, Suzanne asks experts to share their advice
about where people should be investing their money. And right now,
you'd be hard pressed to find a company or a
sector to invest in that isn't AI exposed.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
It's a little hard for me to think of a
pure investment where AI wouldn't at least be embedded in
the operations of a company.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
So Suzanne and I called up some investment experts to
help assess when, whether and how to bet on AI
in the most strategic way possible. Because things are moving quickly,
and alongside all the excitement about getting in on the
AI race, there are also a lot of concerns about
being too exposed. I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the
(01:53):
big take from Bloomberg News Today. On the show The
Risks and Rewards of Investing in AI right Now, we
talk to investment experts about what they think are the
smartest AI plays and the ones you should avoid, depending
(02:14):
on who you talk to. AI is poised to revolutionize
healthcare and technology or destroy jobs and natural resources. It's
the most profitable investment opportunity we've ever seen, or an
industry bubble that's about to burst. Suzanne said, the topic
stirs up a lot of anxiety.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
We know it feels transformative and we're seeing big changes,
but we can't look out ten years from now with
any sort of crystal ball and say these are the
stocks I should have invested in and you know this
is how it's going to reshape finance or insurance or journalism.
We're seeing it in our personal lives when we read
(02:55):
about stories of like layoffs and the entry level jobs.
So there is this sort of excitement over the promise,
but worry over the impact on one's life and just
the uncertainty about what it might lead to.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
I mean, does that remind you of any other sorts
of investments that you've written about. I guess, like the
dot com bubble, investing in tech stocks back in the
early aughts.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
That kind of enthusiasm and the fear about hype and
all the bubble talk is reminiscent of those times. But
I feel like with AI it's sort of that on
steroids in a way. It's seen as a much bigger,
potentially life altering breakthrough for.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
The AI bulls. That's exactly the reason to put your
money behind it.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
Getting in now and riding this wave is how you're
going to make the big money going forward. We've seen
incredible valuations on companies connected to AI, and that is
where you get into sort of the bearcase. The cons
people are worried about these valuations. There's waves, massive waves
(04:07):
of money flowing into building out the infrastructure and the
data centers to support AI. Can the industry grow into
all of the money that's being spent on it.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
That's unclear for a lot of investors, though the idea
of all this untapped potential makes this moment feel like
the perfect time to strike.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I have never seen more fear about innovation than I
do now, and I'm very comfortable here. I think this
is a good place. You know, you don't chase the momentum,
but you buy the dip because you get these opportunities.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
That's Kathy Wood, the CEO of ARC invest She's someone
who's investments are closely watched by retail investors, so when
Suzanne was looking for experts to pull, she wanted to
go to Kathy first.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
She has such an interesting history in investing in innovative
technology g companies.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Kathy said that as she tracks the number of users
of open ai and Gemini, she's reminded of the early
days of the dot com boom.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
If you think about the Internet and how it evolved,
we think we are in nineteen ninety five. For the consumer.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
The hope is that as the user base grows so
will the money that she's invested in companies leveraging AI,
like one of Kathy's longtime favorites, Tesla.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
It is the robotaxi year. We believe that the autonomous
taxi ecosystem globally is going to scale right now. I
think if it's in the billions, I'd be surprised in
terms of revenue generation. But we think it's going to
scale to the eight to ten trillion dollar level per
(05:50):
year within the next five to ten years.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Investing in a highly valued MAG seven tech company like
Tesla or Nvideo or Microsoft isn't the only way to
bet on AI's potential, though. Tasha Wang, a portfolio manager
for Fidelity International based in Hong Kong, suggests looking at
the infrastructure that supports the AI ambitions of MAG seven businesses.
Speaker 5 (06:14):
For example, semiconductor, you know you can easily access it
via ETF and it's something that you know it's a
structural growth story even before AI.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
In addition to physical technologies like semiconductors, Tasha said, investors
should be thinking about the underlying commodities that tech relies on.
With finite supplies, but the prospect of increasing demand, we
can be.
Speaker 5 (06:36):
Talking about copper, and we can be talking about things
like uranium. You know that's not traditionally on the radar
of commality investors, but nuclear is such an important way
to power the AI power needs.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Our third expert agreed that anything related to power is interesting.
Speaker 6 (06:56):
That is the bottleneck right now.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
Michael Smith, who runs the Growth equity team at all
Spring Global Investments.
Speaker 6 (07:03):
When you look at the commitments that have already been
announced from the major players in the space and add
it all up between now and twenty thirty, they need
to obtain enough power to fuel basically the equivalent of
thirty to thirty five million homes, which to put that
in perspective, they are over one hundred and thirty million
(07:23):
households in the US today.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
But Michael also advised being more forward looking in predicting
where AI is going next.
Speaker 6 (07:31):
To use the surfing analogy. Don't chase the wave that's
already passed. Get ready for the next one. If you
miss the infrastructure wave and you feel like it's too
late to buy Nvidia, don't worry. I think the next
big wave will probably be the suppliers, the B to
B companies that develop applications and tools that they sell
(07:51):
to other businesses and help them use AI. And then
if if you miss that wave or you're not comfortable
with that, I think there's a huge wave coming behind them,
the supplier wave, which will be the consumers of all
this stuff. And when AI starts to directly improve everyday
experiences for all of us, that there's going to be
big opportunities.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Another way to think about categorizing AI related investment opportunities
comes from Denny Fish, who's head of Technology research and
a portfolio manager at Janis Henderson.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
Denny Fish use the buckets of enabler, enhancer, and us
there we're.
Speaker 3 (08:28):
Going to see waves of adoption and evolution. We are
clearly in the enablement phase of AI and the infrastructure
build out, and that's semis and that's power, data center infrastructure,
all those things that you need to even be able
to train a model or perform inference.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
In this enablement phase, Companies like Microsoft or Amazon, which
have major cloud computing businesses are seeing massive growth. So
are those physical infrastructure providers companies that manufacture chips or
use liquid cooling systems for data centers. Denny Fish's next
category is the enhancers.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
There will be companies that will embrace AI in a
meaningful way to improve their competitive position in areas like
software and internet.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Tech companies like into It, which dominates in accounting and
tax e filing and is trying to use AI to
improve its product. And finally, there are end users, non
tech companies that adopt AI early.
Speaker 4 (09:32):
A more sort of motley crew of companies that can
incorporate AI to have a more competitive edge and operations
in using agentic AI just really sort of deepening the
reach of their business and becoming more relevant to their customers.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
You could listen to the transcript of every company in
the S and P five hundred last quarter, right and
I don't know, sixty seventy percent of them mention artificial
intelligence in their transcript. So you can go through and
pick your poison in financial services, healthcare, agriculture, insurance and
find unique companies that are actually benefiting from this trend
(10:15):
that aren't quite as obvious.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Take John Deere, the agricultural services company that's using AI
to identify which weeds and plants to spray, or healthcare
companies like tempess AI, which uses the technology to analyze
patient data to improve disease diagnosis. And treatment. Here's Kathy
Wood again.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
That's in our top ten, which we think could become
one of the most important healthcare information backbones in the
United States.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
But what happens if all the plans to make AI
profitable don't pan out exactly the way these companies have promised?
How to head your bets after the break. The amount
of money going into the AI space right now is
(11:07):
frankly staggering.
Speaker 6 (11:08):
The current run rate spendings of the big hyperscaler companies
alone equals like ten Manhattan projects.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Michael Smith at all Spring.
Speaker 6 (11:17):
Pretty much AI has to work like we're all in.
It is a massive percentage of the stock market.
Speaker 5 (11:23):
I think we all sort of in awe of how
much money is going in right that. The magnitude order
of magnitude is hundreds of billions of dollars, and they
are big, they're GDP moving kind of numbers.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Taosha Wang at Fidelity believes it makes sense that investment
at this scale would drive GDP.
Speaker 5 (11:41):
But after that, the boost you know, through investment, needs
to come from productivity. King and productivity is also an
important driver of GDP. We are seeing anecdotal evidence of
you know, certain industries really benefiting from the adoption of
AI in terms of the productivity boost. But you know,
for us to be broad economy GDP moving that we
(12:05):
need to see it in many different industries that may
not necessarily traditionally at the forefront of technology.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
That wide scale adoption and proven profitability are what Tashaw
believes will determine whether the AI run up continues or
whether it's more like a bubble that could pop.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
One can never time haul on the bubble is going
to last and what is going to make the bubble
burst and make the music stop. I think it's usually
related to liquidity and cash flow. So to the extent
that there's still money going around, then I think it
can continue.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Those bubble concerns are being driven in part by the
large number of circular investment deals in this space. In
other words, companies like open ai, Video and Microsoft all
investing in each other. The fear is that it's those
deals that are propping up the industry's growth and valuations.
But Tasha is among the experts who say mutual investments
(13:00):
aren't a reason to write the whole industry off.
Speaker 5 (13:03):
I think it's not necessarily a brand new practice that
you know companies invest in other companies that are in
their operational sort of sphere.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
But she also says it is reason for investors to
take care.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
I would generally caution against things from a cash flow
perspective that do not have, you know, real revenue prove,
real profitability proof. Alarming amount of circular investments going on.
That's certainly something that you know, want to be mindful of.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Michael Smith has been on his team at All Springs
since the dot com boom and bust, and there's a
few things he learned from that experience.
Speaker 6 (13:42):
There are a lot of companies that want a piece
of this pie, and to me, like the big difference
is who's funding their investments from the profits that their
legacy businesses generate, and who's dependent on the kindness of strangers,
whether it would be outside equity investors, lenders, anybody who's
(14:02):
helping to finance the growth other than the business itself,
and just be very careful investing in companies that can't
finance their own growth. I think that was the lesson
learned in the late nineties and early two thousands. I mean,
it was basically the inability to access the capital markets
and continue to finance the growth that changed things that
(14:24):
time around.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
As you may have noticed, the investment experts we spoke
to tended to be bullish on AI. They've already bet
on the industry themselves, after all. When we asked Kathy
would if there were any AI related investments she'd caution against,
she said, basically, don't move on to the next thing
(14:45):
too quickly.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
A lot of people are saying, well, you know, this
AI movement or opportunity is exploited. Let's move to the
next thing, which is quantum computing. They've skipped over thematically
to quantum because they think and I say they meaning
thematic portfolio teams or what have you. They think AI
(15:06):
has been exploited. We think it's barely begun.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
To read more about what these investment experts told Bloomberg
Personal Finance reporter Susan Woolley, head to Bloomberg dot com
or click the link in our show notes. This is
the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. The
(15:31):
show is hosted by Me, David Gera, and Wanha. The
show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Eleanor Harrison, Dengate,
Patti Hirsch, Rachel Lewis Krisky, Naomi Julia Press, Tracy Samuelson,
Naomi Shaven, alex Udiura, Julia Weaver, Yangyong and Taka Yasuzawa.
To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access
(15:54):
to all of bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot Com Slash Podcast Offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be
back on Monday.