January 10, 2024 • 9 mins
Elections this year will determine the leadership of 40% of the world’s population, spanning the United States, to Taiwan, to Mexico, to Senegal. On today’s Big Take podcast: What democracy’s big test means for the economy.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
There is a general feeling among the public that it's
time for a change.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Candidate who speaks out against a kind of old political
power and still pitch yourself as new.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Around the world, there could be some serious changes.
Speaker 4 (00:15):
Twenty twenty three was a year of conflict and confusion.
Russia and Ukraine's war pounded on in a seemingly endless stalemate,
and fighting in the Middle East has rapidly escalated since
Hamasa's October seventh attacks on Israel and Israel's subsequent invasion
of Gaza. But we finally made it to twenty twenty four,
(00:36):
and this year, voters across the world will have a
chance to share how they are feeling at the polls.
There are elections in over sixty countries that account for
over forty percent of the world population. These elections mark
the biggest test democracy has faced in generations. Whatever the outcomes,
the world won't look the same on the other side
(00:57):
of them. On the show, we'll hear from Bloomberg reporters
across the globe who are covering these elections on what
to watch for and what these elections are likely to
mean for all of us. I'm your host, Sarah Holder
and This is the big take from Bloomberg News. Voters
(01:23):
in these elections across the globe are of course seeking
candidates that can address local pocketbook issues like inflation and jobs,
but whether they know it or not, their votes are
also going to shape big global conflicts.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
If you look across the globe, basically there's conflict everywhere.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
Daniel Flatley is a national security reporter for Bloomberg.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
All of those conflicts have some dimension that could be
changed by the outcome of an election.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Voters who go to the polls this year will also
be helping shape something national security experts call the global
economic order. Daniel explained what that means.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Basically, you're talking about the quote unquote Western nations like
the US, in Europe and a lot of the poorer
countries around the world who are trying to basically get
a share of this piece of the pie that is
the global economy. And within that economic order, you have rivalries, right,
So you have the US and Europe basically, and then
(02:26):
you have China. And China has risen faster than anyone
really expected and has become a real economic rival not
just to the US but to Europe and a lot
of European nations as well.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
There are a lot of moving parts here, so let's
start with the elections in these three countries, Russia, Venezuela
and India. Together they're home to more than one and
a half billion people, almost half the number of voters
participating in this year's slate of elections. The influence these
leaders have on regional and global concerns is first. Let's
(03:02):
talk about Russia, where the election outcome is almost certain.
A twenty twenty one rule change paved the way for
Vladimir Putin to pursue up to two more six year
terms as president, and this year Putin faces no meaningful
opposition for the role he first helmed in March two
thousand and has essentially held ever since. And next in Venezuela,
(03:23):
our colleague Pati Laya tells us what to expect.
Speaker 5 (03:26):
With slim chances of winning an open election, Malua is
pulling out almost every lever at his disposal to rally
domestic support and extend his rule. Still longtime Venesswanan observers
finding highly unlikely that Maluro would allow any opponent to
defeat him next year, his main rival, opposition primary winner
Maria Gurna Machau is still banned from running for public office.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
And then in India, Narendra Modi is all but assured
a third term as Prime minister. He's seen as a
crucial political partner to the US and other allies who
have tended to turn a blind eye to concerns over
political assassinations on form or in soil, discrimination against minority groups,
and the seeming lack of fairness in the upcoming national elections.
Here's Daniel again for more on this relationship.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
The first state dinner that Biden hosted was Prime Minister
Narendra Modi here in the US, and that was a
signal basically that this partnership is important and needs to
be preserved at all costs, because if you look at
the world the way that national security officials here in
the US look at the world, basically what they're seeing
(04:30):
is threats from multiple vectors China, Russia, the Middle East, Iran.
But they have an important partner in India.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
While elections in Russia, India and Venezuela seem predetermined, the
outcome of many upcoming elections across the globe remain unknown.
We'll get into which other nations go to the polls
and what their voters are deciding.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
After the break, the US is no longer the unipolar
power in the world. There's a rising China. There's other
countries that are vying for a piece of the pie,
and as that sort of shakes itself out, who is
running these countries is going to be enormously consequential.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
In some places, the status quo looks primed to change.
Our colleague Alex Wickham in the UK lays out the
state of play.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
There years of political turmoil with the Conservatives in power
since Brexit, five prime ministers in seven years. In particularly
over the last few years with Boris Johnson, Liz Trust
and Rissie Sunak, we have perhaps the biggest prospect of
a changing government in fourteen years. The opposition Labor Party
(05:40):
is now consistently ahead in opinion polls by around twenty points,
so Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, is well on course
to become the next prime minister.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
And in Mexico, Maya Averbach reports.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Mexico will likely have its first female president at the
end of this year. Runder the race by a huge
margin is Claudia schein Bam, who comes from the current
ruling party. Her competitor, Social Galvis has called attention to
the current president's record on violence, a really high homicide rate,
(06:14):
the lack of green energy policies, the importance for reforms.
We see a kind of mimicry of the discourse between
these two leading women trying to pitch themselves as candidates
who will really represent the voice of the people in
this race.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Meanwhile, in West Africa, new leaders in Ghana and Senegal
will face their own unique set of challenges. Yinke Ibukun
lays out the stakes in Ghana.
Speaker 6 (06:42):
Dana's next leader has their work cut out for them.
The country is in the throes of a dead crisis
and the central bank is struggling to tame inflation under
an IMF program. The victor will have little physical space
to respond to citizens' immediate concerns.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
By contrast, Senegal is one of africa'st longest growing economies.
It's slated to begin oil and gas production this year
and preparing for an election that could undermine its stability.
Even in places with smaller economies like these, elections can
have big consequences. They can set off a kind of
butterfly effect where electoral results in one country will influence
(07:19):
policy in others. Additional oil production in Mexico or Senegal
can influence US energy policy.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So you have energy producing states that are kind of
fighting for relevance at this point. With a lot of
these countries that have economic resources and have and are
kind of up and coming, so to speak, they want
to really show that they can hold sway on the
world stage, that they can influence events.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
Where elections are free and fair. The leaders voters choose
matter a lot, not only for local economies but for
the global economy as investors look to try and make
sense of a changing global economic order and versus like
the COVID pandemic, Climate change and regional conflicts inject chaos
into an already complex world. Dan says, pay attention to
(08:09):
the way this election season shakes out.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So whether it comes to housing policy, industrial policy, whether
to bail out certain companies or not bail out other companies,
how long the recovery takes, how long it lasts, or
even look at the COVID nineteen pandemic, all of those things.
Those decisions are ultimately made by politicians. How we get
from here to there is going to involve a lot
(08:37):
of day to day decisions that are going to be
shaped by philosophies of the candidates that are.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Running, and we'll keep following these elections as they unfold,
both inside the US and outside. Later this week, voters
in Taiwan will decide on their president, and our Big
Take Asia team will have stories in the build up
and aftermath of the results. This weekend, the US presidential
primaries will begin in Iowa, where our new sister show,
(09:04):
The Big Take, DC, will be on the ground as
former President Donald Trump will try and fend off rivals
for the chance to unseat President Joe Biden this November.
Thanks for listening to The Big Take from Bloomberg News.
I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by Alex Sugiura.
It was fact checked by Molly Nugent. It was mixed
by Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is our executive producer and
(09:27):
head of podcasts. Thanks for tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow.
There is a general feeling among the public that it's
time for a change.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Candidate who speaks out against a kind of old political
power and still pitch yourself as new.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Around the world, there could be some serious changes.
Speaker 4 (00:15):
Twenty twenty three was a year of conflict and confusion.
Russia and Ukraine's war pounded on in a seemingly endless stalemate,
and fighting in the Middle East has rapidly escalated since
Hamasa's October seventh attacks on Israel and Israel's subsequent invasion
of Gaza. But we finally made it to twenty twenty four,
(00:36):
and this year, voters across the world will have a
chance to share how they are feeling at the polls.
There are elections in over sixty countries that account for
over forty percent of the world population. These elections mark
the biggest test democracy has faced in generations. Whatever the outcomes,
the world won't look the same on the other side
(00:57):
of them. On the show, we'll hear from Bloomberg reporters
across the globe who are covering these elections on what
to watch for and what these elections are likely to
mean for all of us. I'm your host, Sarah Holder
and This is the big take from Bloomberg News. Voters
(01:23):
in these elections across the globe are of course seeking
candidates that can address local pocketbook issues like inflation and jobs,
but whether they know it or not, their votes are
also going to shape big global conflicts.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
If you look across the globe, basically there's conflict everywhere.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
Daniel Flatley is a national security reporter for Bloomberg.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
All of those conflicts have some dimension that could be
changed by the outcome of an election.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Voters who go to the polls this year will also
be helping shape something national security experts call the global
economic order. Daniel explained what that means.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Basically, you're talking about the quote unquote Western nations like
the US, in Europe and a lot of the poorer
countries around the world who are trying to basically get
a share of this piece of the pie that is
the global economy. And within that economic order, you have rivalries, right,
So you have the US and Europe basically, and then
(02:26):
you have China. And China has risen faster than anyone
really expected and has become a real economic rival not
just to the US but to Europe and a lot
of European nations as well.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
There are a lot of moving parts here, so let's
start with the elections in these three countries, Russia, Venezuela
and India. Together they're home to more than one and
a half billion people, almost half the number of voters
participating in this year's slate of elections. The influence these
leaders have on regional and global concerns is first. Let's
(03:02):
talk about Russia, where the election outcome is almost certain.
A twenty twenty one rule change paved the way for
Vladimir Putin to pursue up to two more six year
terms as president, and this year Putin faces no meaningful
opposition for the role he first helmed in March two
thousand and has essentially held ever since. And next in Venezuela,
(03:23):
our colleague Pati Laya tells us what to expect.
Speaker 5 (03:26):
With slim chances of winning an open election, Malua is
pulling out almost every lever at his disposal to rally
domestic support and extend his rule. Still longtime Venesswanan observers
finding highly unlikely that Maluro would allow any opponent to
defeat him next year, his main rival, opposition primary winner
Maria Gurna Machau is still banned from running for public office.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
And then in India, Narendra Modi is all but assured
a third term as Prime minister. He's seen as a
crucial political partner to the US and other allies who
have tended to turn a blind eye to concerns over
political assassinations on form or in soil, discrimination against minority groups,
and the seeming lack of fairness in the upcoming national elections.
Here's Daniel again for more on this relationship.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
The first state dinner that Biden hosted was Prime Minister
Narendra Modi here in the US, and that was a
signal basically that this partnership is important and needs to
be preserved at all costs, because if you look at
the world the way that national security officials here in
the US look at the world, basically what they're seeing
(04:30):
is threats from multiple vectors China, Russia, the Middle East, Iran.
But they have an important partner in India.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
While elections in Russia, India and Venezuela seem predetermined, the
outcome of many upcoming elections across the globe remain unknown.
We'll get into which other nations go to the polls
and what their voters are deciding.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
After the break, the US is no longer the unipolar
power in the world. There's a rising China. There's other
countries that are vying for a piece of the pie,
and as that sort of shakes itself out, who is
running these countries is going to be enormously consequential.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
In some places, the status quo looks primed to change.
Our colleague Alex Wickham in the UK lays out the
state of play.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
There years of political turmoil with the Conservatives in power
since Brexit, five prime ministers in seven years. In particularly
over the last few years with Boris Johnson, Liz Trust
and Rissie Sunak, we have perhaps the biggest prospect of
a changing government in fourteen years. The opposition Labor Party
(05:40):
is now consistently ahead in opinion polls by around twenty points,
so Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, is well on course
to become the next prime minister.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
And in Mexico, Maya Averbach reports.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Mexico will likely have its first female president at the
end of this year. Runder the race by a huge
margin is Claudia schein Bam, who comes from the current
ruling party. Her competitor, Social Galvis has called attention to
the current president's record on violence, a really high homicide rate,
(06:14):
the lack of green energy policies, the importance for reforms.
We see a kind of mimicry of the discourse between
these two leading women trying to pitch themselves as candidates
who will really represent the voice of the people in
this race.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Meanwhile, in West Africa, new leaders in Ghana and Senegal
will face their own unique set of challenges. Yinke Ibukun
lays out the stakes in Ghana.
Speaker 6 (06:42):
Dana's next leader has their work cut out for them.
The country is in the throes of a dead crisis
and the central bank is struggling to tame inflation under
an IMF program. The victor will have little physical space
to respond to citizens' immediate concerns.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
By contrast, Senegal is one of africa'st longest growing economies.
It's slated to begin oil and gas production this year
and preparing for an election that could undermine its stability.
Even in places with smaller economies like these, elections can
have big consequences. They can set off a kind of
butterfly effect where electoral results in one country will influence
(07:19):
policy in others. Additional oil production in Mexico or Senegal
can influence US energy policy.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So you have energy producing states that are kind of
fighting for relevance at this point. With a lot of
these countries that have economic resources and have and are
kind of up and coming, so to speak, they want
to really show that they can hold sway on the
world stage, that they can influence events.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
Where elections are free and fair. The leaders voters choose
matter a lot, not only for local economies but for
the global economy as investors look to try and make
sense of a changing global economic order and versus like
the COVID pandemic, Climate change and regional conflicts inject chaos
into an already complex world. Dan says, pay attention to
(08:09):
the way this election season shakes out.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So whether it comes to housing policy, industrial policy, whether
to bail out certain companies or not bail out other companies,
how long the recovery takes, how long it lasts, or
even look at the COVID nineteen pandemic, all of those things.
Those decisions are ultimately made by politicians. How we get
from here to there is going to involve a lot
(08:37):
of day to day decisions that are going to be
shaped by philosophies of the candidates that are.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Running, and we'll keep following these elections as they unfold,
both inside the US and outside. Later this week, voters
in Taiwan will decide on their president, and our Big
Take Asia team will have stories in the build up
and aftermath of the results. This weekend, the US presidential
primaries will begin in Iowa, where our new sister show,
(09:04):
The Big Take, DC, will be on the ground as
former President Donald Trump will try and fend off rivals
for the chance to unseat President Joe Biden this November.
Thanks for listening to The Big Take from Bloomberg News.
I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by Alex Sugiura.
It was fact checked by Molly Nugent. It was mixed
by Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is our executive producer and
(09:27):
head of podcasts. Thanks for tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow.
Hosts And Creators
Sarah Holder
Saleha Mohsin
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Are You A Charlotte?
In 1997, actress Kristin Davis’ life was forever changed when she took on the role of Charlotte York in Sex and the City. As we watched Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte navigate relationships in NYC, the show helped push once unacceptable conversation topics out of the shadows and altered the narrative around women and sex. We all saw ourselves in them as they searched for fulfillment in life, sex and friendships. Now, Kristin Davis wants to connect with you, the fans, and share untold stories and all the behind the scenes. Together, with Kristin and special guests, what will begin with Sex and the City will evolve into talks about themes that are still so relevant today. "Are you a Charlotte?" is much more than just rewatching this beloved show, it brings the past and the present together as we talk with heart, humor and of course some optimism.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.