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July 7, 2025 15 mins

In late April, shortly after President Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs sent markets reeling, the White House announced a 90-day pause on when those tariffs would go into effect.

That pause is about to end and while the Trump administration has announced a few tentative trade agreements — including one with the UK and another with Vietnam — they’re nowhere near 90.


On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s Brendan Murray and host David Gura discuss what the White House has accomplished, what it hasn’t and where the trade war goes from here.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Boo Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
President Trump's trade war began in earnest. In April, when
he announced a raft of new tariffs.

Speaker 3 (00:15):
Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for
more than fifty years, but it is not going to
happen anymore.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Trump said he'd impose reciprocal tariffs across the board, levies
on dozens of trading partners, including the European Union, Japan
and South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

Speaker 3 (00:34):
Reciprocal That means they do it to us and we
do it to them. Very simple. Can't get any simpler
than that.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
But after that announcement sparked market turbulence, the president changed course.
He announced a ninety day pause on the implementation of
those tariffs. On Fox Business, Trump's trade advisor, Peter Navarro,
presented it as an opportunity for those trading partners negotiate.

Speaker 4 (01:01):
So we're going to run ninety deals in ninety days,
is possible. The Boss is going to be the chief negotiator.
Nothing's done without him looking very carefully at it.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
Well, that pause is about to end on Wednesday, and
while the Trump administration has announced a few tentative trade agreements,
including one with the UK, then another with Vietnam. They
are nowhere near ninety so over the weekend on CNN's
State of the Union, Treasury Secretary Scott bessen't laid out
what's likely to happen next.

Speaker 5 (01:33):
President Trump's going to be sending letters to some of
our trading partners saying that if you don't move things along,
then on August first, you will boomerang back to your
April second tariff level.

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Brendan Murray oversees Bloomberg's trade coverage and he says, it
looks like August first is the new July ninth.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
You know, ninety days was always an arbitrary sort of
number that they just pulled out of the a.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
The move is in keeping with how the White House
has waged this trade war from the very beginning, moving deadlines,
putting tariffs in place, then taking them off, and adjusting
tariff levels with no explanation.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
It feels like it's a little bit of groundhog Day.
Every day on the trade beat, to some extent, is
that we're going to go through this all over again.

Speaker 2 (02:24):
I'm David Gura, and this is the big take from
Bloomberg News today.

Speaker 6 (02:27):
On the show.

Speaker 2 (02:28):
As President Trump's ninety day pause on his sweeping reciprocal
tariffs comes to an end, what comes next, What the
White House has accomplished, what it hasn't, and where the
trade war goes from here. The problem with counting how
many trade deals the White House has done is it

(02:49):
depends on how you define the word deal. Bloomberg's Brendan
Murray says the Trump administration reached an agreement with the
United Kingdom, and President Trump announced a trade deal with
Vietnam on social media, where on Monday afternoon, the President
also said he'd impose twenty five percent tariffs on imports
from Japan and South Korea and a thirty percent tariff

(03:09):
on imports from South Africa. But at the end of
this ninety day pause and years, Brendan says, we haven't
seen the fine print and we don't know the status
of other negotiations. From your vantage point, how much has
been accomplished here over the course of these eighty plus days, Well.

Speaker 1 (03:27):
It's hard to say how far along the talks are
with all of these other countries, But the main ones China, Mexico, Canada,
those are the three biggest US trading partners. Those are
all still in flux, and we don't know where those
are headed. The President has said that he is going
to stick to his auto tariffs and his steel tariffs

(03:49):
and aluminum tariffs, and those are really important to Canada
and Mexico and they're going to try to negotiate those away.

Speaker 6 (03:56):
Now.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
The other big deal that really means more than any
of those three is one with the European Union. We
think of Canada, China, Mexico as the biggest US trading partners,
but the European Union as a block is really the
biggest and the most integrated when it comes to goods, trade, services, trade,
and investment that goes back and forth between the two economies.

Speaker 2 (04:19):
How hard and fast is this deadline on Wednesday? We
heard from the President last week indicating that he didn't
intend to blow past it or offer any kind of extension.
What's the latest from him and his administration on the
hard and fastness of that July ninth deadline.

Speaker 1 (04:33):
Well, as we're getting closer to that, they're inserting some
wiggle room in there now. The thinking is, and what
we've heard from some of the folks in the administration,
is that they've got a bottleneck of these deals that
are just on the very edge of being resolved and
being signed, but they can't get them all over the
line before July ninth, the original deadline, So it seems

(04:55):
like August first is becoming the new deadline. None of
this is a surprise to anybody who watches trade negotiations.
These are complicated deals that have to be done back
and forth between capitals over different time zones, and they
just take a long time, and they involve complicated things
that countries just aren't going to give up overnight. And

(05:17):
so we've seen the ninety deals in ninety days come
down to maybe a half dozen deals and probably one
hundred letters.

Speaker 2 (05:25):
Broad strokes, What do you expect to play out between
now and July ninth or August first? What are we
likely to get from the White House? How should we
think about or read what's going to be in letters
or deal announcements to get a sense of what's actually
in these deals and agreements.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
I think we're going to see if they release the
deals at all, We're going to see how basic they are,
how broad they are, how lacking in concrete commitments. There's
probably going to be some agreements to purchase a certain
amount of US ex sports of agriculture, for instance, or
Boeing airplanes. These are more commercial arrangements than they are

(06:04):
trade deals. But every country is now going to be
faced with a ten percent tariff on their exports to
the US. At least that's going to be across the board.
There doesn't seem to be any negotiating that away, So
in effect, President Trump is raising this tariff wall around
the US economy, over which countries will have to just

(06:27):
deal with or there'll be retaliation.

Speaker 2 (06:30):
Brent, when you look at the negotiations between the US
and these major trading partners, how much are the points
of contention the same in all of those talks.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
I think from the US's perspective, there are several issues
that bother them among the biggest, and Trump has been
pretty vocal about how he doesn't like that you can't
buy Ford pickup trucks in Tokyo, or you don't see
Cheves driving around Berlin. So cars is one of the
sort of regular sticking points with President Trump. He also

(07:04):
is trying to crack down on the proliferation of Chinese
products everywhere. That could be everything from raw materials like
steel to things like technological components that turn up in
a lot of consumer items that we see.

Speaker 6 (07:20):
The Trump administration.

Speaker 1 (07:22):
Takes real issue with agriculture barriers to other countries' markets.
India has very high protections around its agriculture industry where
there's a big constituency of the Modi government that are
subsistence farmers and they would be economically devastated if the
agriculture market of India were opened to the global trading system.

(07:46):
So those are barriers that are unlikely to go down
anytime soon or in any way that's significant. And then
then there are a whole host of other issues that
fall under this category of non tariff barriers, and these
are things like the tax system in the European Union
or the way businesses are regulated in a country like

(08:06):
South Korea.

Speaker 6 (08:07):
Brendan.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
Over the weekend, the President said he would charge an
additional ten percent tariff on any country aligning themselves with
the anti American policy of the Bricks Nations. This is
a group led by Brazil, Russia, India, and China. They
were meeting over the weekend. What does that say just
about what's motivating this trade war, what's motivating the levees
that the President is putting in place.

Speaker 1 (08:29):
I think it just illustrates how broadly the President thinks
he can use tariffs to influence not just the trading
relationships the US has with another country, but geoeconomic forces
that are happening around him. Ironically, the Bricks organization is growing,
and it's growing because of the vacuum of what they

(08:51):
perceive as the vacuum of the leadership that the US
has had over the years to steering the global economy,
steering the global order in a certain directions. So the
Bricks now see themselves as the source of stability in
the world, the ones you can trust, the ones you
can count on, versus President Trump, who seems to be

(09:12):
filling the role of the sort of chief disruptor of
the global economy.

Speaker 2 (09:18):
The US Court of International Trade blocked many of the
tariffs that President Trump had threatened or imposed on other countries.
I asked Brendan how that decision, which the administration has appealed,
has affected the White House's negotiations.

Speaker 1 (09:31):
I think what it's done is slowed a lot of
them down. Countries would be looking at that, going that's
our get out of tariff free card. And they would
be looking at the date of that next court hearing going.

Speaker 6 (09:44):
If we can just hold out that.

Speaker 1 (09:45):
Long, then perhaps the laws of the United States will
strike down his authority to use those tariffs and will
be in a completely different world.

Speaker 2 (09:55):
In the meantime, the Trump administration is leaning more heavily
on tariffs, not on countries, but on specific sectors.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
Those sectoral tariffs can be used very broadly. For example,
the steel and aluminum tariffs that he rolled out a
few months ago were recently expanded to include appliances, washing machines,
the kinds of things that everyday Americans go to home
depot and buy because they contain steel and aluminum. So

(10:22):
you can use these sectoral tariffs very broadly. You can
hit a lot of imports with them, and so on
these two separate tracks, President Trump is trying to build
this tariff wall around the US economy, and he can
do so with either one. There are other sectual tariffs
coming for pharmaceuticals, which the European Union is a big

(10:44):
exporter of. There are secual tariffs coming for semiconductors. Now
imagine how broadly you could define what is contained in
a semiconductor. You could put the tariff on the technical
tiny little chip that is what we think of as
a semiconductor, or you could put it on the phone
which contains semiconductors. So either way, the administration feels like

(11:05):
it's going to rewire the global economy one way or
the other, and that president has what they believe is
the authority to do that.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
After the break, the impact the threat of President Trump's
tariffs has already had on the global economy. Bloomberg's Global
Trade editor Brendan Murray has covered his fair share of

(11:37):
trade negotiations, and I wanted to know how these talks
stack up.

Speaker 1 (11:42):
These negotiations are different because they're on this fast track.
Trade negotiations typically take years and they go chapter by chapter,
line by line. So I think it's the speed and
the complexity that are much different. They're much less complex

(12:03):
and they're much faster, and they're also they're not in binding.
They will die with a new administration from a different
party that doesn't follow the same trade policies that the
current administration does. So they're not complex, they're fast, and
they don't have a lot of longevity built into them.

Speaker 2 (12:23):
I want to turn out to the effects these tariffs
these trade talks have had on the economy so far,
What have we seen in the data as this is
all progressed.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
Well, The data on trade itself has been kind of
all over the place, but the broad trend is trade
is holding up pretty well. We've seen not as much
of an impact on inflation data. The big worry among
economists is that tariffs will cause inflation, but we haven't
seen that pressure appear in the data yet. So there's

(12:56):
a bit of a disconnect between the administration, which says, look,
we don't have any inflation, and the people who are
actually paying those tariff bills, who say, these tariffs are
killing me and I'm going to go out of business
if I don't raise my prices or someone lowers the tariffs.
So there's a school of thought and it's yet to

(13:17):
be born out in the data. So we don't know
yet that this is going to appear as inflation in
later this year early next year as those costs feed
through into the larger US economy. That's what we're hearing
from the Federal Reserve as well. They're sitting on their
hands trying to figure out how this is going to
play out, and they don't know if it's going to

(13:39):
be a benign scenario or if it's going to be
rampant inflation. But they are waiting, listening to their contacts
across the FED districts and trying to figure out what
the actual implication is going to be.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
Brendan. Lastly, as we look for these letters, maybe deal announcements,
what is your advice on what we should want watch for,
who we should listen to As these trade talks continue
and these tariffs go into effect.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
I think we should look very closely at how the
world responds to what is essentially a unilateral trade war
on each of their economies. Will we see retaliation. So far,
we've only seen it threatened, maybe put a little bit
of tariffs on US exports.

Speaker 6 (14:26):
But for the most part.

Speaker 1 (14:28):
The world has sat through the last three months and said, Okay,
you're threatening me with tariffs, let's negotiate.

Speaker 6 (14:36):
And there hasn't been a.

Speaker 1 (14:38):
Huge backlash, a collective backlash against the US's threats to
those economies. China has spen the exception. China is fighting
back in different ways. But I think the key thing
to watch is how countries respond and whether we see
the world just take it and adjust to it and

(14:59):
deal it, or whether we see the sort of building
of retaliation in a collective way where countries band together
and say, we can't sit back and take this for
very long, otherwise our own domestic political situations are going
to get harry.

Speaker 2 (15:18):
This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.
To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot com slash podcast offer. If you'd like this episode,
make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever
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Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.
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