March 19, 2025 • 16 mins
Trump's tariffs on China are causing a lot of pain around the world. Products that would've gone to the US are now pouring into other countries, leading to factory closures and layoffs. And this is likely to increase after April 2, when President Trump has promised to put in place a new set of tariffs.
On today’s episode of the Big Take, Katia Dmitrieva joins host David Gura to talk about the collateral damage from Trump’s trade war with China.
Read more: A New ‘China Shock’ Is Destroying Jobs Around the World
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
One word dominated the economic debate during the US presidential campaign.
Speaker 3 (00:12):
It's tariff. Because tariffs are going to make us rich
as hell. It's going to bring our countries.
Speaker 4 (00:19):
Business is back that left us.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
While President Trump says those tariffs would be applied to
countries all over the world, he singled out one of
them over and over again.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
I put tariffs on China. With China, we took in
hundreds of billions of dollars.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
Nobody else took in ten cents from China.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
They never did massive tariffs on China. During my four years,
we had the best economy in the history.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
During his first term in twenty eighteen, Trump embarked on
a trade war with China in a bid to bring
manufacturing back to the US.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Now he's escalating it.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
That may seem like a good opportunity for other nations
that sell products to the US, but China has not
let up on manufacturing in the face of Trump's tariff.
Products that would have gone to the US are now
flooding into nations all over the world, leading to factory
closures and mass layoffs. With a new set of sweeping
global tariffs, set to take effect on April second. That
(01:13):
pain is likely to increase.
Speaker 5 (01:16):
Every country, even if you don't have tariffs placed directly
on you, will be impacted in some way.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Katya Dmitrieva is an economics correspondent for Bloomberg based in
Hong Kong, and she says, when it comes to China.
Speaker 5 (01:28):
While shipments to places like the US where there are
higher tariffs have dropped over the past five years, what
you're seeing is that a bigger part of their trade PIE,
or a bigger part of their exports PIE is just
going to a number of countries all around the world.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
In other words, US tariffs did lead to China selling
fewer goods to the US, but China's exports didn't suffer overall.
The things they no longer sold to the US they
sold to other countries instead. And while some of those
goods were used in products that were later sold to
US consumers, many others work things like clothes and electronics
(02:05):
that put local manufacturers out of business as consumers opted
for cheaper items.
Speaker 5 (02:11):
I was speaking with an economist at HSBC, Frederick Newman,
and he put it this way. It was also in
one of his research notes. It's an African proverb and
it goes, when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.
And I think that's a great way of encapsulating exactly
what we're seeing now and what we're going to be
(02:31):
seeing for the next few years with tariffs.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
I'm David Gera and this is the big take from
Bloomberg News Today on the show, how US tariffs on
China are being shouldered by the rest of the world,
causing industries in other countries to suffer, and how Trump's
reciprocal tariffs on April second could make life even harder
for nations caught in the crossfire. Near the city of
(03:06):
Surakarta in Indonesia, on the island of Java, a transformation
has been taking place. The region is Indonesia's textile center,
known for making elaborate fabrics, but Bloomberg'skati Dimitrieva says in
recent years that industry has been struggling.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
It's interesting because it feels and it looks a lot
like the towns that I've seen in the US rust
belb the Midwest.
Speaker 5 (03:33):
One of the things you'll notice right away is how
many factories are closed. They don't have a market anymore.
Domestically for their goods because people can just buy it
cheaper in markets and online from China.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Chinese manufacturers are undercutting Indonesian textile makers and driving them
out of business. Even Indonesia's trademark Batique textiles aren't safe
from Chinese competition. When Indonesian producers would try to sell elsewhere,
they would also compete with these cheaper Chinese goods. How
much of an outlier is Indonesia? How many other countries
(04:09):
are kind of wrestling with these same issues.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
Indonesia is not alone. You have Vietnam, Thailand, you have
even South Korea and Japan, which are developed economies, but
we've seen them making moves because of the surge in
Chinese imports. We're seeing it in Mexico and places like
Turkey as well. So it really does span the globe.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
I was astonished career that China has managed to maintain
a share of global exports despite a big drop in
its sheriff total US imports since Trump's first term. How
is that the case? How given that focus on consumption,
has that played out in that way?
Speaker 5 (04:44):
So when the tariffs came in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen,
China immediately pivoted to other markets. So primarily what that's
meant is emerging markets getting a lot of the same
goods that normally would have gone to the States, but
because of high tariffs, demands for those items just dropped.
And so China's share of exports to places like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand,
(05:09):
Mexico have skyrocketed, while shipments to places like the US
where there are higher tariffs have dropped over the past
five years. And so what you're seeing is that a
bigger part of their trade PIE, or a bigger part
of their exports PIE is just going to a number
of countries all around the world.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
What does that look like on the ground in these
other countries, if China has shifted its attention to them,
what does it look like when they're exporting so much
two other countries.
Speaker 5 (05:38):
Well, what it looks like is job loss. It looks
like anger, and once that factory closes, I mean that
city is at risk. And that's exactly what we saw
in the States. It's exactly what we're seeing now across
emerging markets. And it's not just workers, of course, it's
also retailers. It's also local indu street executives and companies
(06:02):
that are feeling the pain of this.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
When we talk about Chinese exports, are we talking about electronics, principolice?
Speaker 1 (06:08):
What?
Speaker 3 (06:09):
What? In some is China exporting to the world.
Speaker 5 (06:12):
So it started with steel. So they began exporting a
few years ago, record amounts of steel to economies like Mexico,
like Brazil, as well as Southeast Asia. But something we've
noticed is that it's actually become much bigger than that.
It's not just steel anymore. It's not just evs, you know,
(06:34):
it's not just renewable goods. It's not just batteries. It's everything.
It's everything from steel to shoes to calculators.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Economists are calling this a new China Shock, a term
first used to describe the dramatic impact Chinese exports had
on the US labor market starting in the late nineteen nineties.
This time the shock is more global. But China's big
export push is not without some domestic cost. While exports
have buoyed the economy as the government seeks to deflate
(07:05):
a property bubble, Trump's tariffs are forcing authorities to now
ramp up consumer spending to diversify the economy.
Speaker 5 (07:12):
Yeah, this is this is kind of a big question
for China right now. You can see that the government
policy makers in China and twenty twenty five have really
made consumption and pivoting to local consumption a big priority
exactly because of this. It's a reaction to tariffs, to
Trump's tariffs, and it's also an acknowledgement that China cannot
(07:36):
simply rely on exports forever to fuel growth. They really
need to pivot at some point, something economists and countries
around the world have been saying for years now. The
first set of tariffs that came in in twenty eighteen
twenty nineteen was one of the things that prompted this
China shock that we're now seeing globally. One thing that
Chinese policymakers need to think about now is not just
(07:59):
you West tariffs, but also tariffs from their neighbors and
their allies and markets where they thought that it was
pretty safe to start selling goods.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Coming up after the break.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
The tactics countries are using to fight back against the
global China shock, and how Trump's reciprocal tariffs could put
those countries in.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
An even more difficult situation.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
The tariff's President Trump put in place on China during
his first term, redirected a flood of cheap Chinese exports
from the US to other countries around the world. In
his second term, his administration has already raised tariffs by
twenty percent and has threatened further increases. Those tariffs risk
sending more cheap Chinese goods and materials around the world,
(08:52):
making it hard for other countries to compete. Bloomberg' Katie
Dimitrieva says, those other countries are trying to figure out
how that can defend themselves. Broadly speaking, what can these
countries do to prevent this influx of goods from coming in?
Stand up to China? Is it tariffs? This is a
reciprocal tariffs, Is it a value added tax? Is it
(09:15):
kind of investigations into dumping of materials? Of how are
they approaching this kind of change in the economic landscape.
Speaker 5 (09:21):
Yeah, it's all the above. Several months ago across Southeast Asia,
countries were starting to push back on China and these
cheap exports. And it was interesting because we had already
seen developed economies like the US and Europe atting tariffs,
but it was very different that Southeast Asia, which is
(09:42):
arguably politically geographically much closer to China, began pushing back
as well.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Thailand has a seven percent value added tax on imported
goods below fifty dollars and launched a probe into Temu,
China's e commerce giant. Malaysia has its own ten percent
sales tax on low value goods, and Vietnam last year
ordered Temu and Shen, a similar e commerce site, to
suspend operations in the country. Indian authorities have launched investigations
(10:09):
into Chinese dumping, and a little further abroad, Mexico is
reviewing its own tariffs on Chinese shipments. Indonesia considered a
two hundred percent tariff on a range of Chinese goods
last year, but fighting back against China carries risks.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
It's interesting because these countries are kind of squeezed right,
like they want to maintain good relations with China. And
this is why the situation is a bit unprecedented in
that places like Indonesia, the leadership wants to maintain good
geopolitical relations because they rely a lot on Chinese FDI
(10:48):
as part of the Belton Roade initiative and also just
general investment.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
FDI stands for foreign direct investment.
Speaker 5 (10:55):
So it's not of their best interest, in fact, to
take the kinds of steps that President Trump taken in
the US. So what they've been left to do is
float these very specific tariffs for industries that are the
most vocal.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
What is China say in reply to criticism that these
other economies are being flooded, that they're facing economic difficulty
because of this. What's China's response been.
Speaker 5 (11:19):
China has been very quiet about this particular subject. In fact,
a reporter at a Chinese Foreign Ministry briefing earlier this month,
a reporter from Pakistan and from Pakistani news outlet asked
about this exact question, this flood of Chinese goods in
neighboring countries, and the response was interesting.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
Here's that exchange, shared on YouTube by China's CCTV Video
News agency.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Today's China is an anchor of stability, engine of economic development,
and a pillar of regional security. Indust that's that it
is common for neighbors to not agree on everything.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
China's top diplomat basically said, you know, it's common for
neighbors not to agree on everything. What we noticed afterwards, though,
is that they scrubbed the question from the official record,
So it's a subject that is kind of sensitive enough
that it gets policymakers to react in that way and
kind of make them nervous.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
There are potentially more US tariffs in the works, meaning
nations already dealing with the China shock are now scrambling
to prepare for these extra trade barriers with the US.
President Trump has said on April second, he's going to
implement what the administration is calling reciprocal tariffs. Each one
of the US's trade partners would be hit with a
tariff rate calculated by taking into account the barriers the
(12:44):
US faces to trading with that country, and that means
these nations industries will face pressure not just from cheap
Chinese imports, but also potentially less demand from the US
Among their largest trade partners.
Speaker 5 (12:56):
They are trying as much as possible to get Trump
an official on the phone with a varied success rate.
They're trying to buy as many US goods or make
promises to buy as many US goods as possible, particularly.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
LNG that's liquefied natural gas.
Speaker 5 (13:15):
So you're seeing global leaders coming to the White House
or releasing statements saying we're open to buy more LNG.
And more goods from the US to sort of shrink
the trade surplus that some countries have with the US.
That many countries have with the US because the US
is the world's biggest economies with the most hungry consumers,
(13:36):
and so there's communication, trying to negotiate, trying to make
promises to buy more things. That's been the big step
so far. And industries are preparing for a flood, a
renewed flood of goods hitting their shores.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Is the playbook fundamentally the same. Are we likely to
see sort of what happened during the first Trump term
happen again in countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam.
Speaker 5 (14:03):
Yeah, it really depends on what the reciprocal tariffs look
like right now. We don't know what the administration is
looking at in terms of the number, you know, will
it be a tiered system, Will every country get its
own rate, Will there even be a rate that's announced,
(14:24):
Will there be carveouts, will there be caveats, will there
be space for other industries? This is what all of
these industries across the world right now, especially the biggest
trading for US's biggest trading partners, they're trying to negotiate
that right now not looking very hopeful. So you know,
what we could see is in some ways a repeat
(14:44):
of the first Trump trade war, where you have just
rapid fire developments, especially in the first year, you have
the tariffs come in. Similar to what happened in the
first term, tariffs on China did come in, but over
period of a year of negotiations, additional tariffs were not
put in place, and so you know the timeframe of
(15:07):
this happening. In some ways, it just gets kind of elongated,
so we could be in for a bit of a
wait before you know everything the dust is settled. In
some ways, it will be very different, though, I mean
the main difference is that Trump's trade war has gone global,
and so every country, even if you don't have tariffs
placed directly on you, will be impacted in some way.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.
This episode was produced by Alex Tie. It was edited
by Tracy Sanduelson and Daniel ten Kate. It was fact
checked by Adrian A. Tapia and mixed and sound designed
by Alex Segura. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our
senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster.
Bor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
If you liked this.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Episode, make sure to subscribe and review you The Big
Take Wherever you listen to podcasts, it helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
One word dominated the economic debate during the US presidential campaign.
Speaker 3 (00:12):
It's tariff. Because tariffs are going to make us rich
as hell. It's going to bring our countries.
Speaker 4 (00:19):
Business is back that left us.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
While President Trump says those tariffs would be applied to
countries all over the world, he singled out one of
them over and over again.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
I put tariffs on China. With China, we took in
hundreds of billions of dollars.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
Nobody else took in ten cents from China.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
They never did massive tariffs on China. During my four years,
we had the best economy in the history.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
During his first term in twenty eighteen, Trump embarked on
a trade war with China in a bid to bring
manufacturing back to the US.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Now he's escalating it.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
That may seem like a good opportunity for other nations
that sell products to the US, but China has not
let up on manufacturing in the face of Trump's tariff.
Products that would have gone to the US are now
flooding into nations all over the world, leading to factory
closures and mass layoffs. With a new set of sweeping
global tariffs, set to take effect on April second. That
(01:13):
pain is likely to increase.
Speaker 5 (01:16):
Every country, even if you don't have tariffs placed directly
on you, will be impacted in some way.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Katya Dmitrieva is an economics correspondent for Bloomberg based in
Hong Kong, and she says, when it comes to China.
Speaker 5 (01:28):
While shipments to places like the US where there are
higher tariffs have dropped over the past five years, what
you're seeing is that a bigger part of their trade PIE,
or a bigger part of their exports PIE is just
going to a number of countries all around the world.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
In other words, US tariffs did lead to China selling
fewer goods to the US, but China's exports didn't suffer overall.
The things they no longer sold to the US they
sold to other countries instead. And while some of those
goods were used in products that were later sold to
US consumers, many others work things like clothes and electronics
(02:05):
that put local manufacturers out of business as consumers opted
for cheaper items.
Speaker 5 (02:11):
I was speaking with an economist at HSBC, Frederick Newman,
and he put it this way. It was also in
one of his research notes. It's an African proverb and
it goes, when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.
And I think that's a great way of encapsulating exactly
what we're seeing now and what we're going to be
(02:31):
seeing for the next few years with tariffs.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
I'm David Gera and this is the big take from
Bloomberg News Today on the show, how US tariffs on
China are being shouldered by the rest of the world,
causing industries in other countries to suffer, and how Trump's
reciprocal tariffs on April second could make life even harder
for nations caught in the crossfire. Near the city of
(03:06):
Surakarta in Indonesia, on the island of Java, a transformation
has been taking place. The region is Indonesia's textile center,
known for making elaborate fabrics, but Bloomberg'skati Dimitrieva says in
recent years that industry has been struggling.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
It's interesting because it feels and it looks a lot
like the towns that I've seen in the US rust
belb the Midwest.
Speaker 5 (03:33):
One of the things you'll notice right away is how
many factories are closed. They don't have a market anymore.
Domestically for their goods because people can just buy it
cheaper in markets and online from China.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Chinese manufacturers are undercutting Indonesian textile makers and driving them
out of business. Even Indonesia's trademark Batique textiles aren't safe
from Chinese competition. When Indonesian producers would try to sell elsewhere,
they would also compete with these cheaper Chinese goods. How
much of an outlier is Indonesia? How many other countries
(04:09):
are kind of wrestling with these same issues.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
Indonesia is not alone. You have Vietnam, Thailand, you have
even South Korea and Japan, which are developed economies, but
we've seen them making moves because of the surge in
Chinese imports. We're seeing it in Mexico and places like
Turkey as well. So it really does span the globe.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
I was astonished career that China has managed to maintain
a share of global exports despite a big drop in
its sheriff total US imports since Trump's first term. How
is that the case? How given that focus on consumption,
has that played out in that way?
Speaker 5 (04:44):
So when the tariffs came in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen,
China immediately pivoted to other markets. So primarily what that's
meant is emerging markets getting a lot of the same
goods that normally would have gone to the States, but
because of high tariffs, demands for those items just dropped.
And so China's share of exports to places like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand,
(05:09):
Mexico have skyrocketed, while shipments to places like the US
where there are higher tariffs have dropped over the past
five years. And so what you're seeing is that a
bigger part of their trade PIE, or a bigger part
of their exports PIE is just going to a number
of countries all around the world.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
What does that look like on the ground in these
other countries, if China has shifted its attention to them,
what does it look like when they're exporting so much
two other countries.
Speaker 5 (05:38):
Well, what it looks like is job loss. It looks
like anger, and once that factory closes, I mean that
city is at risk. And that's exactly what we saw
in the States. It's exactly what we're seeing now across
emerging markets. And it's not just workers, of course, it's
also retailers. It's also local indu street executives and companies
(06:02):
that are feeling the pain of this.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
When we talk about Chinese exports, are we talking about electronics, principolice?
Speaker 1 (06:08):
What?
Speaker 3 (06:09):
What? In some is China exporting to the world.
Speaker 5 (06:12):
So it started with steel. So they began exporting a
few years ago, record amounts of steel to economies like Mexico,
like Brazil, as well as Southeast Asia. But something we've
noticed is that it's actually become much bigger than that.
It's not just steel anymore. It's not just evs, you know,
(06:34):
it's not just renewable goods. It's not just batteries. It's everything.
It's everything from steel to shoes to calculators.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Economists are calling this a new China Shock, a term
first used to describe the dramatic impact Chinese exports had
on the US labor market starting in the late nineteen nineties.
This time the shock is more global. But China's big
export push is not without some domestic cost. While exports
have buoyed the economy as the government seeks to deflate
(07:05):
a property bubble, Trump's tariffs are forcing authorities to now
ramp up consumer spending to diversify the economy.
Speaker 5 (07:12):
Yeah, this is this is kind of a big question
for China right now. You can see that the government
policy makers in China and twenty twenty five have really
made consumption and pivoting to local consumption a big priority
exactly because of this. It's a reaction to tariffs, to
Trump's tariffs, and it's also an acknowledgement that China cannot
(07:36):
simply rely on exports forever to fuel growth. They really
need to pivot at some point, something economists and countries
around the world have been saying for years now. The
first set of tariffs that came in in twenty eighteen
twenty nineteen was one of the things that prompted this
China shock that we're now seeing globally. One thing that
Chinese policymakers need to think about now is not just
(07:59):
you West tariffs, but also tariffs from their neighbors and
their allies and markets where they thought that it was
pretty safe to start selling goods.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Coming up after the break.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
The tactics countries are using to fight back against the
global China shock, and how Trump's reciprocal tariffs could put
those countries in.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
An even more difficult situation.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
The tariff's President Trump put in place on China during
his first term, redirected a flood of cheap Chinese exports
from the US to other countries around the world. In
his second term, his administration has already raised tariffs by
twenty percent and has threatened further increases. Those tariffs risk
sending more cheap Chinese goods and materials around the world,
(08:52):
making it hard for other countries to compete. Bloomberg' Katie
Dimitrieva says, those other countries are trying to figure out
how that can defend themselves. Broadly speaking, what can these
countries do to prevent this influx of goods from coming in?
Stand up to China? Is it tariffs? This is a
reciprocal tariffs, Is it a value added tax? Is it
(09:15):
kind of investigations into dumping of materials? Of how are
they approaching this kind of change in the economic landscape.
Speaker 5 (09:21):
Yeah, it's all the above. Several months ago across Southeast Asia,
countries were starting to push back on China and these
cheap exports. And it was interesting because we had already
seen developed economies like the US and Europe atting tariffs,
but it was very different that Southeast Asia, which is
(09:42):
arguably politically geographically much closer to China, began pushing back
as well.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Thailand has a seven percent value added tax on imported
goods below fifty dollars and launched a probe into Temu,
China's e commerce giant. Malaysia has its own ten percent
sales tax on low value goods, and Vietnam last year
ordered Temu and Shen, a similar e commerce site, to
suspend operations in the country. Indian authorities have launched investigations
(10:09):
into Chinese dumping, and a little further abroad, Mexico is
reviewing its own tariffs on Chinese shipments. Indonesia considered a
two hundred percent tariff on a range of Chinese goods
last year, but fighting back against China carries risks.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
It's interesting because these countries are kind of squeezed right,
like they want to maintain good relations with China. And
this is why the situation is a bit unprecedented in
that places like Indonesia, the leadership wants to maintain good
geopolitical relations because they rely a lot on Chinese FDI
(10:48):
as part of the Belton Roade initiative and also just
general investment.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
FDI stands for foreign direct investment.
Speaker 5 (10:55):
So it's not of their best interest, in fact, to
take the kinds of steps that President Trump taken in
the US. So what they've been left to do is
float these very specific tariffs for industries that are the
most vocal.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
What is China say in reply to criticism that these
other economies are being flooded, that they're facing economic difficulty
because of this. What's China's response been.
Speaker 5 (11:19):
China has been very quiet about this particular subject. In fact,
a reporter at a Chinese Foreign Ministry briefing earlier this month,
a reporter from Pakistan and from Pakistani news outlet asked
about this exact question, this flood of Chinese goods in
neighboring countries, and the response was interesting.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
Here's that exchange, shared on YouTube by China's CCTV Video
News agency.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Today's China is an anchor of stability, engine of economic development,
and a pillar of regional security. Indust that's that it
is common for neighbors to not agree on everything.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
China's top diplomat basically said, you know, it's common for
neighbors not to agree on everything. What we noticed afterwards, though,
is that they scrubbed the question from the official record,
So it's a subject that is kind of sensitive enough
that it gets policymakers to react in that way and
kind of make them nervous.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
There are potentially more US tariffs in the works, meaning
nations already dealing with the China shock are now scrambling
to prepare for these extra trade barriers with the US.
President Trump has said on April second, he's going to
implement what the administration is calling reciprocal tariffs. Each one
of the US's trade partners would be hit with a
tariff rate calculated by taking into account the barriers the
(12:44):
US faces to trading with that country, and that means
these nations industries will face pressure not just from cheap
Chinese imports, but also potentially less demand from the US
Among their largest trade partners.
Speaker 5 (12:56):
They are trying as much as possible to get Trump
an official on the phone with a varied success rate.
They're trying to buy as many US goods or make
promises to buy as many US goods as possible, particularly.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
LNG that's liquefied natural gas.
Speaker 5 (13:15):
So you're seeing global leaders coming to the White House
or releasing statements saying we're open to buy more LNG.
And more goods from the US to sort of shrink
the trade surplus that some countries have with the US.
That many countries have with the US because the US
is the world's biggest economies with the most hungry consumers,
(13:36):
and so there's communication, trying to negotiate, trying to make
promises to buy more things. That's been the big step
so far. And industries are preparing for a flood, a
renewed flood of goods hitting their shores.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Is the playbook fundamentally the same. Are we likely to
see sort of what happened during the first Trump term
happen again in countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam.
Speaker 5 (14:03):
Yeah, it really depends on what the reciprocal tariffs look
like right now. We don't know what the administration is
looking at in terms of the number, you know, will
it be a tiered system, Will every country get its
own rate, Will there even be a rate that's announced,
(14:24):
Will there be carveouts, will there be caveats, will there
be space for other industries? This is what all of
these industries across the world right now, especially the biggest
trading for US's biggest trading partners, they're trying to negotiate
that right now not looking very hopeful. So you know,
what we could see is in some ways a repeat
(14:44):
of the first Trump trade war, where you have just
rapid fire developments, especially in the first year, you have
the tariffs come in. Similar to what happened in the
first term, tariffs on China did come in, but over
period of a year of negotiations, additional tariffs were not
put in place, and so you know the timeframe of
(15:07):
this happening. In some ways, it just gets kind of elongated,
so we could be in for a bit of a
wait before you know everything the dust is settled. In
some ways, it will be very different, though, I mean
the main difference is that Trump's trade war has gone global,
and so every country, even if you don't have tariffs
placed directly on you, will be impacted in some way.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.
This episode was produced by Alex Tie. It was edited
by Tracy Sanduelson and Daniel ten Kate. It was fact
checked by Adrian A. Tapia and mixed and sound designed
by Alex Segura. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our
senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster.
Bor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
If you liked this.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Episode, make sure to subscribe and review you The Big
Take Wherever you listen to podcasts, it helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow
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