April 29, 2025 • 15 mins
In electing Mark Carney as prime minister, Canadians have given him and the Liberal Party a mandate. But it was a narrow victory — one that will require Carney to work with another party to achieve his priorities. His most urgent: trade talks with US President Donald Trump.
On today’s Big Take podcast, David Gura sits down with Canadian government reporter Brian Platt in Ottawa to discuss the results of the election, what a fourth consecutive Liberal term means for the country’s future and how Carney might try to position Canada in trade negotiations.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Canada's Liberal Party won
a fourth consecutive term, electing Mark Carney as Prime Minister.
It was a narrow victory. Carney's Liberals don't have an
outright majority.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
It's a stunning comeback for the Liberal Party because they
until recently looked like they were going to get totally
wiped out in this election.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
That's Brian Platt, who covers the Canadian government for Bloomberg,
and notably Pierre Pouliev, the leader of the Conservative Party
who ran against Carney, whose style of politics has drawn
comparisons to US President Donald Trump's lost his seat.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
There's no doubt what shape this election, primarily, which is
Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Carney's campaign, by necessity, focused on how he would respond
to Trump's tariffs. Now all eyes are on him to
see how he'll negotiate our old relationship with the United States,
a relationship based on steadily increasing integration is over. I'm
(01:04):
David Gera and this is the big take from Bloomberg
News Today. On the show, I sit down with Brian
Platt in Ottawa to unravel the results of Canada's election
what they mean for the future of the Liberal Party
for Canada's approach to housing in the economy and the
country's relationship with Trump.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
How decisive was this victory.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
How much of a mandate does Mark Carney have as
Prime Minister now?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
So the key number is one hundred and seventy two.
If you get one hundred and seventy two seats in Parliament,
you have a majority government and you don't need anybody
else's help to pass votes. The Liberals can just get
anything done with their own caucus voting. Carney felt just
short of that, but their main ally in parliament. The
(01:49):
NDP got seven seats as we record. That gives you
enough votes to pass votes in parliament and that should
allow Carney to govern for a while.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
You were criss crossing the country. The insight into what
may have affected turnout or results at the margin, I.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Think it'll be the strongest turnout at least since twenty fifteen,
which was the election that put Justin Trudeau first into power.
There's no doubt what shaped this election primarily, which is
Donald Trump and the reaction to Donald Trump. Not only
the trade war that Trump has launched many countries but
including Canada, but also there's kind of a unique Canadian factor,
(02:24):
which is Donald Trump keeps threatening to make Canada the
fifty first state.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Canadians are angry.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
They're not traveling to the US nearly the numbers that
they normally would in terms of vacations or any other reason.
They're boycotting US products California wine, Kentucky, bourban all that
stuff you will not find on many liquor store shelves
right now. And it totally changed the landscape of this election,
and Carneia has changed course from how Trudeau ran the
(02:52):
Liberal Party, but also Canadians ultimately, in response to Donald Trump,
came back to the Liberal Party, having over the last
two years largely abandoned it.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
One last question about the results, how in line were
they with the public opinion polling that we saw over
the course of this campaign.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
The answer is complicated. The top line figure Carnee wins,
Liberals win. This is a very easy story to tell,
which is Mark Carney changed enough from Justin Trudeau, and
also Canadians put their trust in him as the best
leader to deal with Donald Trump and so pulled off
a remarkable comeback for the Liberal Party at a national level.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
That's the story.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
The more you dig into it, the more complicated it gets.
The single most surprising thing that happened last night is
that what stopped Carney's Liberals from getting a majority government
is Southern Ontario, which is Canada's manufacturing region. That's where
the auto manufacturing industry is based, It's where the steel
industry is based. This is one of the parts of
the country that is most affected by Donald Trump and
(03:51):
his tariffs. Southern Ontario went conservative last night, and so
the Liberals, for whatever reason, were not able to win
in the manufactor in region, despite the larger narrative of
Mark Carney being the choice of Canadians to deal.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
With Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
There's some contradiction here, and I think this is going
to be one of the biggest things to unpack in
the coming days and weeks and months, is what happened
in Southern Ontario that voters turned to Poliev and not
to Carney.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Let's look back and remind us how we got to
this point. Justin Trudeau had been Prime minister for about
ten years. He announces his decision to step down. That
kickstarts this whole process. What brought it about? And what
have these last few months been like?
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It's amazing it's hard to even put my mind back
six months ago because it feels like years ago now.
But up until December twenty twenty four, I would have
told you Trudeau is going to stay on as Prime minister.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
He is determined to stay on.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
He's quite unpopular, his Liberal Party is far down in
the polls. Pierre Poliev and the Conservative Party will almost
certainly win the next election, probably by a large amount. Trudeau,
he'd gone through an inflation shock. There was lots of
problems plaguing, specifically affordability issues, cost of living issues, the
cost of housing. He kind of lost control of parts
(05:06):
of the immigration system, and too many people came in
too quickly after the pandemic, and it caused all kinds
of problems, especially in the housing market. Trudeau had become
quite unpopular and yet was refusing to leave because he
believed he could turn the ship around and defeat Pierre
Poliev when an election was called. That's how everything looked,
first when Donald Trump won the US election in November,
(05:29):
and then heading into December, I mean, Trudeau was behind
Polyev in the polls by like by more than twenty points.
Simples had the gap at almost thirty points. I mean,
this was looking like disaster for the Liberal Party.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Right after Donald Trump took office, he started talking about
making Canada a US state. Suddenly Conservative candidate Pierre Poliev,
who'd adopted a Trump like Canada First slogan and campaigned
on eliminating woke ideology from the public service, wasn't who
many Canadians wanted to lead them. In one of the
most surprising results of the night, Polyev lost his seat
(06:03):
in Parliament, though he could hold onto his position as
leader of the Conservative Party.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
It is stunning that Poliev lost his own riding. He's
represented this riding, which is a it's on the edge
of Ottawa. Parts of it are suburban and parts of
it are rural. I mean there's like small there's farmers,
there's small towns.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
As part of this riding.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
But Poliev has represented this district since two thousand and four,
for more than twenty years, and he often wins it
by gigantic margins. This is one of the most confounding
things about what happened last night, which is the Conservatives
did very well in Ontario, much better than I think
than anybody thought they would, and yet Pierre Poliev got
crushed in his riding.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Introduce us to Mark Karney, who is a proud technocrat.
Ran the central bank here in Canada, ran the Bank
of England as well, I should say. Before he got
into politics, he was the chair of Bloomberg Ink. Stepped
down from that when he got into politics. How did
he present himself to the Canadian electorate.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
So I spent a lot of time with Carnea on
the campaign trailer. This is not a natural fit for
him campaigning. He comes off still as a central banker.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
In many ways.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
He speaks in a low key manner. He answers questions,
usually kind of in bullet point form. You ask him
something and he goes, well, okay, three points I'd like
to make here, you know. And sometimes he's like it out,
I refer you back to point one, you know. Like
that's how he talks. It's kind of a technocratic, managerial
style of talking.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
He usually didn't change.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
The pitch of his voice too much, didn't deliver big
roaring applause lines, a lot of hockey metaphors. You know,
Canadians didn't start this fight, but when someone else drops
their gloves were always ready and just like in hockey,
we will win this trade war. You know, it was
a lot of stuff like that, but delivered in sort
of this calm, low key manner, and it.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Worked for him.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
I think it's a really big question with Carney Weather
in a normal election where he didn't have a Donald
Trump factor, if this style of campaigning would work in
this election. He was in many ways just a perfect
fur to Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
So if he leads a minority led government, he's going
to have to work with other parties to bring them
into the fold to get his legislative agenda passed. How able,
how capable is he going to be of doing.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
That, It's a big challenge.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
He on the campaign trail didn't promise that he was
just going to be tough with Trump or stand up
for Canada. He said that stuff, but then he would
also say I'm going to win Canada will win this
trade war. So now he's got to deliver, and at
least in the short term, I don't think Parliament's going
to be too much of a challenge for him, because
there's enough votes with the NDP that the Liberals should
(08:35):
be able to pass their budget past.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Whatever else they need to in parliament.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
You know, that will get harder as time goes along,
but he's got you know, he's got to work now
with a cabinet. You know, he's got to form a
cabinet out of his out of the Liberal caucus, and
he's got to now show Canadians I can deliver on
these promises I made to you on the campaign trail.
One of the biggest questions coming up is how quickly
will he meet face to face with Donald Trump, because
(09:00):
he has said we've agreed to do that after the
election ended. He also has the G seven coming up,
the G seven Leader Summit. Canada is hosting that in June,
and will the American president who has threatened to annex
the country and make it the fifty first state and
has launched a trade war in many respects on Canada,
will Canada welcome him with open arms to this G
(09:20):
seven summit.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
We'll dig into the issues that Mark Carney will have
to take up, including the most pressing renegotiating trade with
the US.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
That's after the break.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
With the election behind him, Mark Carney will now be
able to focus all his attention on governing. So I
wanted to ask Bloomberg's Brian Platt about the Prime Minister's
policy proposals is legislative agenda starting with his most pressing
priority trade.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Instead of going on this sector by sector, issue by issue.
As soon as possible, Mark Karney and the Canadian government
will try to make this a larger trade discus. There
is a free trade deal, at least in name, there's
a free trade deal the USMCA, and it's up for
a review joint review anyway in twenty twenty six. And
so I think what the Canadian government's goal here will
(10:13):
be is, as soon as possible, get into a broader
discussion about Okay, President Trump, what do you want to
change in this deal? How can we find common ground here?
And if you can get to like a larger agreement
on that trade deal, you can get these tariffs lifted.
That will be the goal of the Canadian government. How
quickly Donald Trump is willing to take the discussion in
that direction, we'll see, but that is will absolutely be
(10:36):
in terms of the US. That will be Mark Carney's goal.
He will have two other things he's trying to get
done here. One of is to boost the Canadian economy,
and he's talked about ways he wants to do this,
especially by reducing trade barriers between the provinces, and I
think the third thing he will try to do is
diversify trade, to boost trade with Europe and Asia as
(10:57):
much as possible.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Noticed in his speech.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Last night, yes there was excitement and congratulation, there's also
this warning to Canadians about economic pain and that this
is going to be difficult. How is he going to
guide the country through economic pain that existed and is
now being compounded by what's happening with the trade war.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
I think there's two ways to think about what's coming
for Canada. Like one is the tariffs, and you know
Trump is trying to get factories to move back to
the US.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
So just the pure aspect of our factories.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
In Canada going to close and move to the US
or is nobody going to open a new factory in Canada,
that is a big threat, and especially in southern Ontario
where you have the auto plants.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
And the steel industry and all that.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
But there's another aspect of this, which is when the
US has a recession, Canada's economy tends to follow. Historically,
it's very closely tied with the US. And Carney was
the Governor of the Bank of Canada in two thousand
and eight when the global financial crisis hits, and I think,
you know, it's Carne's warning Canadians for a reason, which
(12:02):
is he can see trouble on the horizon.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
I heard him on the campaign trail talking a lot
about housing and affordable housing, and he's kind of presented
it as this generational challenge for Canada to figure this out,
to build more homes.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
There's a very simple way to look at this, which
is there's no reason Canada should have a housing crisis.
We have a huge, geographically huge country that is underpopulated.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
There's no reason.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
We have plenty of land to build on. But the
issue is just the nature of government in Canada. The
federal government only has so much control over housing construction.
It's provincial governments and municipal governments that have the most
control over building housing. I should say there's two things
that the federal government can do. One is money, the
other is the immigration system. Justin Trudeau already pulled back
(12:47):
on immigration, especially temporary immigration, so foreign students and temporary
foreign workers, pulled back on how many of those people
were coming into the country through those immigration streams in
order to give time for the housing market to catch up.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Carne will do the same thing.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
It doesn't sound like he's planning to scale back even more,
but he's going to keep that in place what Trudeau did,
scale back immigration, give more time for housing construction to
catch up. But this is an issue that needs to
be solved by multiple levels of government, not just the
federal government, and so that makes it very difficult for Carney.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
Again, we will see how this goes in practice.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
We have seen the rise of populist politicians around the world.
As you look at the outcome of this race, what
does it tell you about the longevity or breadth of
that trend.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
I think it's a big question how much this election
is a one time thing or you know, or have
things changed permanently.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Carney is the opposite of a populist right. I mean, he.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Basically talks about himself as Yes, I'm a global elite.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
Yes, that's what I am.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I was a central banker in two different G seven countries.
I chaired Brookfield Asset Management, I was the chair of Bloomberg.
You know, I'm a corporate elite. I'm a global elite.
That's what you're getting A few elect me. He has
not tried to run away from that right. Pierre Pauliev
was much more of a populist, and yet Mark Carney won.
The populist in this election did not win, But I
(14:13):
don't know if Mark Carney's voter coalition is how permanent
or not it is. This was a very strange election
by Canadian standards. Normally in Canada's a multi party system.
This was a much more American style election. You had
the Liberals and the Conservatives, a two party race. Will
that last or will the NDP, Will some of the
other parties have more strength in the next election, and
(14:36):
will that change everything again? I think it is maybe
the single biggest question hanging over this election right now
is is this the new political landscape or is this
a very unusual election shaped in particular by Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.
This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was edited
by Tracy Sandelson and Melissa Shin. It was fact checked
by Adrian A. Tapia and Rachel Lewis Chrisky. It was
mixed and sound designed by Alex Sagura. Special thanks to
Stephen Craig, Nicholas Bach and Bridget Bright. Our senior producer
is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our
(15:14):
deputy executive producer is Julia Weaver. Our executive producer is
Nicole Beemster Boor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
If you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and
review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It
helps people find the show. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
We'll be back tomorrow
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Canada's Liberal Party won
a fourth consecutive term, electing Mark Carney as Prime Minister.
It was a narrow victory. Carney's Liberals don't have an
outright majority.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
It's a stunning comeback for the Liberal Party because they
until recently looked like they were going to get totally
wiped out in this election.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
That's Brian Platt, who covers the Canadian government for Bloomberg,
and notably Pierre Pouliev, the leader of the Conservative Party
who ran against Carney, whose style of politics has drawn
comparisons to US President Donald Trump's lost his seat.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
There's no doubt what shape this election, primarily, which is
Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Carney's campaign, by necessity, focused on how he would respond
to Trump's tariffs. Now all eyes are on him to
see how he'll negotiate our old relationship with the United States,
a relationship based on steadily increasing integration is over. I'm
(01:04):
David Gera and this is the big take from Bloomberg
News Today. On the show, I sit down with Brian
Platt in Ottawa to unravel the results of Canada's election
what they mean for the future of the Liberal Party
for Canada's approach to housing in the economy and the
country's relationship with Trump.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
How decisive was this victory.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
How much of a mandate does Mark Carney have as
Prime Minister now?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
So the key number is one hundred and seventy two.
If you get one hundred and seventy two seats in Parliament,
you have a majority government and you don't need anybody
else's help to pass votes. The Liberals can just get
anything done with their own caucus voting. Carney felt just
short of that, but their main ally in parliament. The
(01:49):
NDP got seven seats as we record. That gives you
enough votes to pass votes in parliament and that should
allow Carney to govern for a while.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
You were criss crossing the country. The insight into what
may have affected turnout or results at the margin, I.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Think it'll be the strongest turnout at least since twenty fifteen,
which was the election that put Justin Trudeau first into power.
There's no doubt what shaped this election primarily, which is
Donald Trump and the reaction to Donald Trump. Not only
the trade war that Trump has launched many countries but
including Canada, but also there's kind of a unique Canadian factor,
(02:24):
which is Donald Trump keeps threatening to make Canada the
fifty first state.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Canadians are angry.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
They're not traveling to the US nearly the numbers that
they normally would in terms of vacations or any other reason.
They're boycotting US products California wine, Kentucky, bourban all that
stuff you will not find on many liquor store shelves
right now. And it totally changed the landscape of this election,
and Carneia has changed course from how Trudeau ran the
(02:52):
Liberal Party, but also Canadians ultimately, in response to Donald Trump,
came back to the Liberal Party, having over the last
two years largely abandoned it.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
One last question about the results, how in line were
they with the public opinion polling that we saw over
the course of this campaign.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
The answer is complicated. The top line figure Carnee wins,
Liberals win. This is a very easy story to tell,
which is Mark Carney changed enough from Justin Trudeau, and
also Canadians put their trust in him as the best
leader to deal with Donald Trump and so pulled off
a remarkable comeback for the Liberal Party at a national level.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
That's the story.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
The more you dig into it, the more complicated it gets.
The single most surprising thing that happened last night is
that what stopped Carney's Liberals from getting a majority government
is Southern Ontario, which is Canada's manufacturing region. That's where
the auto manufacturing industry is based, It's where the steel
industry is based. This is one of the parts of
the country that is most affected by Donald Trump and
(03:51):
his tariffs. Southern Ontario went conservative last night, and so
the Liberals, for whatever reason, were not able to win
in the manufactor in region, despite the larger narrative of
Mark Carney being the choice of Canadians to deal.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
With Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
There's some contradiction here, and I think this is going
to be one of the biggest things to unpack in
the coming days and weeks and months, is what happened
in Southern Ontario that voters turned to Poliev and not
to Carney.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Let's look back and remind us how we got to
this point. Justin Trudeau had been Prime minister for about
ten years. He announces his decision to step down. That
kickstarts this whole process. What brought it about? And what
have these last few months been like?
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It's amazing it's hard to even put my mind back
six months ago because it feels like years ago now.
But up until December twenty twenty four, I would have
told you Trudeau is going to stay on as Prime minister.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
He is determined to stay on.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
He's quite unpopular, his Liberal Party is far down in
the polls. Pierre Poliev and the Conservative Party will almost
certainly win the next election, probably by a large amount. Trudeau,
he'd gone through an inflation shock. There was lots of
problems plaguing, specifically affordability issues, cost of living issues, the
cost of housing. He kind of lost control of parts
(05:06):
of the immigration system, and too many people came in
too quickly after the pandemic, and it caused all kinds
of problems, especially in the housing market. Trudeau had become
quite unpopular and yet was refusing to leave because he
believed he could turn the ship around and defeat Pierre
Poliev when an election was called. That's how everything looked,
first when Donald Trump won the US election in November,
(05:29):
and then heading into December, I mean, Trudeau was behind
Polyev in the polls by like by more than twenty points.
Simples had the gap at almost thirty points. I mean,
this was looking like disaster for the Liberal Party.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Right after Donald Trump took office, he started talking about
making Canada a US state. Suddenly Conservative candidate Pierre Poliev,
who'd adopted a Trump like Canada First slogan and campaigned
on eliminating woke ideology from the public service, wasn't who
many Canadians wanted to lead them. In one of the
most surprising results of the night, Polyev lost his seat
(06:03):
in Parliament, though he could hold onto his position as
leader of the Conservative Party.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
It is stunning that Poliev lost his own riding. He's
represented this riding, which is a it's on the edge
of Ottawa. Parts of it are suburban and parts of
it are rural. I mean there's like small there's farmers,
there's small towns.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
As part of this riding.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
But Poliev has represented this district since two thousand and four,
for more than twenty years, and he often wins it
by gigantic margins. This is one of the most confounding
things about what happened last night, which is the Conservatives
did very well in Ontario, much better than I think
than anybody thought they would, and yet Pierre Poliev got
crushed in his riding.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Introduce us to Mark Karney, who is a proud technocrat.
Ran the central bank here in Canada, ran the Bank
of England as well, I should say. Before he got
into politics, he was the chair of Bloomberg Ink. Stepped
down from that when he got into politics. How did
he present himself to the Canadian electorate.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
So I spent a lot of time with Carnea on
the campaign trailer. This is not a natural fit for
him campaigning. He comes off still as a central banker.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
In many ways.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
He speaks in a low key manner. He answers questions,
usually kind of in bullet point form. You ask him
something and he goes, well, okay, three points I'd like
to make here, you know. And sometimes he's like it out,
I refer you back to point one, you know. Like
that's how he talks. It's kind of a technocratic, managerial
style of talking.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
He usually didn't change.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
The pitch of his voice too much, didn't deliver big
roaring applause lines, a lot of hockey metaphors. You know,
Canadians didn't start this fight, but when someone else drops
their gloves were always ready and just like in hockey,
we will win this trade war. You know, it was
a lot of stuff like that, but delivered in sort
of this calm, low key manner, and it.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Worked for him.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
I think it's a really big question with Carney Weather
in a normal election where he didn't have a Donald
Trump factor, if this style of campaigning would work in
this election. He was in many ways just a perfect
fur to Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
So if he leads a minority led government, he's going
to have to work with other parties to bring them
into the fold to get his legislative agenda passed. How able,
how capable is he going to be of doing.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
That, It's a big challenge.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
He on the campaign trail didn't promise that he was
just going to be tough with Trump or stand up
for Canada. He said that stuff, but then he would
also say I'm going to win Canada will win this
trade war. So now he's got to deliver, and at
least in the short term, I don't think Parliament's going
to be too much of a challenge for him, because
there's enough votes with the NDP that the Liberals should
(08:35):
be able to pass their budget past.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Whatever else they need to in parliament.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
You know, that will get harder as time goes along,
but he's got you know, he's got to work now
with a cabinet. You know, he's got to form a
cabinet out of his out of the Liberal caucus, and
he's got to now show Canadians I can deliver on
these promises I made to you on the campaign trail.
One of the biggest questions coming up is how quickly
will he meet face to face with Donald Trump, because
(09:00):
he has said we've agreed to do that after the
election ended. He also has the G seven coming up,
the G seven Leader Summit. Canada is hosting that in June,
and will the American president who has threatened to annex
the country and make it the fifty first state and
has launched a trade war in many respects on Canada,
will Canada welcome him with open arms to this G
(09:20):
seven summit.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
We'll dig into the issues that Mark Carney will have
to take up, including the most pressing renegotiating trade with
the US.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
That's after the break.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
With the election behind him, Mark Carney will now be
able to focus all his attention on governing. So I
wanted to ask Bloomberg's Brian Platt about the Prime Minister's
policy proposals is legislative agenda starting with his most pressing
priority trade.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Instead of going on this sector by sector, issue by issue.
As soon as possible, Mark Karney and the Canadian government
will try to make this a larger trade discus. There
is a free trade deal, at least in name, there's
a free trade deal the USMCA, and it's up for
a review joint review anyway in twenty twenty six. And
so I think what the Canadian government's goal here will
(10:13):
be is, as soon as possible, get into a broader
discussion about Okay, President Trump, what do you want to
change in this deal? How can we find common ground here?
And if you can get to like a larger agreement
on that trade deal, you can get these tariffs lifted.
That will be the goal of the Canadian government. How
quickly Donald Trump is willing to take the discussion in
that direction, we'll see, but that is will absolutely be
(10:36):
in terms of the US. That will be Mark Carney's goal.
He will have two other things he's trying to get
done here. One of is to boost the Canadian economy,
and he's talked about ways he wants to do this,
especially by reducing trade barriers between the provinces, and I
think the third thing he will try to do is
diversify trade, to boost trade with Europe and Asia as
(10:57):
much as possible.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Noticed in his speech.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Last night, yes there was excitement and congratulation, there's also
this warning to Canadians about economic pain and that this
is going to be difficult. How is he going to
guide the country through economic pain that existed and is
now being compounded by what's happening with the trade war.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
I think there's two ways to think about what's coming
for Canada. Like one is the tariffs, and you know
Trump is trying to get factories to move back to
the US.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
So just the pure aspect of our factories.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
In Canada going to close and move to the US
or is nobody going to open a new factory in Canada,
that is a big threat, and especially in southern Ontario
where you have the auto plants.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
And the steel industry and all that.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
But there's another aspect of this, which is when the
US has a recession, Canada's economy tends to follow. Historically,
it's very closely tied with the US. And Carney was
the Governor of the Bank of Canada in two thousand
and eight when the global financial crisis hits, and I think,
you know, it's Carne's warning Canadians for a reason, which
(12:02):
is he can see trouble on the horizon.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
I heard him on the campaign trail talking a lot
about housing and affordable housing, and he's kind of presented
it as this generational challenge for Canada to figure this out,
to build more homes.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
There's a very simple way to look at this, which
is there's no reason Canada should have a housing crisis.
We have a huge, geographically huge country that is underpopulated.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
There's no reason.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
We have plenty of land to build on. But the
issue is just the nature of government in Canada. The
federal government only has so much control over housing construction.
It's provincial governments and municipal governments that have the most
control over building housing. I should say there's two things
that the federal government can do. One is money, the
other is the immigration system. Justin Trudeau already pulled back
(12:47):
on immigration, especially temporary immigration, so foreign students and temporary
foreign workers, pulled back on how many of those people
were coming into the country through those immigration streams in
order to give time for the housing market to catch up.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Carne will do the same thing.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
It doesn't sound like he's planning to scale back even more,
but he's going to keep that in place what Trudeau did,
scale back immigration, give more time for housing construction to
catch up. But this is an issue that needs to
be solved by multiple levels of government, not just the
federal government, and so that makes it very difficult for Carney.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
Again, we will see how this goes in practice.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
We have seen the rise of populist politicians around the world.
As you look at the outcome of this race, what
does it tell you about the longevity or breadth of
that trend.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
I think it's a big question how much this election
is a one time thing or you know, or have
things changed permanently.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Carney is the opposite of a populist right. I mean, he.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Basically talks about himself as Yes, I'm a global elite.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
Yes, that's what I am.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I was a central banker in two different G seven countries.
I chaired Brookfield Asset Management, I was the chair of Bloomberg.
You know, I'm a corporate elite. I'm a global elite.
That's what you're getting A few elect me. He has
not tried to run away from that right. Pierre Pauliev
was much more of a populist, and yet Mark Carney won.
The populist in this election did not win, But I
(14:13):
don't know if Mark Carney's voter coalition is how permanent
or not it is. This was a very strange election
by Canadian standards. Normally in Canada's a multi party system.
This was a much more American style election. You had
the Liberals and the Conservatives, a two party race. Will
that last or will the NDP, Will some of the
other parties have more strength in the next election, and
(14:36):
will that change everything again? I think it is maybe
the single biggest question hanging over this election right now
is is this the new political landscape or is this
a very unusual election shaped in particular by Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.
This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was edited
by Tracy Sandelson and Melissa Shin. It was fact checked
by Adrian A. Tapia and Rachel Lewis Chrisky. It was
mixed and sound designed by Alex Sagura. Special thanks to
Stephen Craig, Nicholas Bach and Bridget Bright. Our senior producer
is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our
(15:14):
deputy executive producer is Julia Weaver. Our executive producer is
Nicole Beemster Boor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
If you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and
review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It
helps people find the show. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
We'll be back tomorrow
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