Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Over the last two months, the United States has launched
a series of strikes off the coast of Venezuela.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
The US military carried out another lethal air striker, another
US Stride.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
New strike go to suspect the drug boat in the cribbe.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
The massive explosion sending debris raining down in international waters.
Despite questions about evidence and due process, the administration insists
lethal strikes like these will continue. The Trump administration says
it's targeting narco traffickers.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
The President keeps making this claim that every time he
strikes one of these boats, he prevents about twenty four
thousand drug related deaths in the United States.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Nick Wadhams heads up Bloomberg's National Security team.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
That is obviously a highly dubious claim, but he's basically
making the equation. You know, if you have x tons
of fentanyl on the boat, and a tiny dose of
fentanyl can kill a person, that's how many drug related
deaths are being saved in the US. So they essentially
see this as an invasion by drug runners flooding the
US market, and this is the way they're going to
(01:09):
stop it.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Experts say these strikes violate international law.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
The real motivation for why these are actually happening is
something that has remained a very elusive reporting target.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
The US is also building up its military presence in
the Caribbean, which is fueling intense speculation over what the
White House is planning to do next and what its
overall objective is. CBS News is Nora O'Donnell asked President
Trump about that in an interview that aired on Sixty
Minutes on Sunday on Venezuela.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
In particular, are Maduro's days as president numbers?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Oh so, yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
I think so you. I'm David Gera, and this is
the big take from Bloomberg News Today. On the show,
as the Trump administration continues to authorize strikes on boats
off South America, we take a look at the military
hardware President Trump has ordered to the region, Why he's
taking aim at Venezuela now, and what could happen next.
(02:12):
Over the last two months, strikes carried out by the
US military on vessels in the Pacific and Caribbean have
killed more than sixty people. The Trump administration says those
strikes and a growing military presence off the coast of
Venezuela are meant to hinder the flow of drugs from
South America to the United States. I asked Bloomberg's Nick
Wadhams if there is more to the story.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
The element that's very high in a lot of people's
minds is Venezuela is leadership president Nicholas Maduro. The US
says he's essentially the head of this drug running criminal enterprise,
though as far as we know, not a lot of
drugs are produced in Venezuela. It's mostly a transit point
for drugs flowing from elsewhere. But that has fueled a
(02:55):
lot of suspicion that the US basically wants regime change
in Venezuela. I mean, we know for a lot long
time that the US has wanted Nicholas Maduro out. They've
put a multimillion dollar bounty on his head for any
information leading to his arrest. They tried in Trump's first
term to usher him from power. They failed, And now
you have a Secretary of State and Marco Rubio who
(03:16):
has been even far more explicit about his desire to
see Adua leave power. And so that has then fueled
a lot of speculation that the military build up is
not really about targeting these boats, but it's laying the
groundwork for airstrikes or possibly even an invasion that would
lead to Maduro's ouster.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Nick, how effective has this campaign been as a way
of ratcheting up pressure on President Maduro? What do we
know about what's happening on the ground in Venezuela.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
It has ratcheted up a great deal of pressure on
Nicholas Maduro. There's no question that he is feeling the heat.
He has called up troops, he's put his country on
high alert. The question, though, is what the ultimate effect
will actually be the opposition in Venezuela. You may recall
that opposition leader Machado just won the Nobel Peace Prize
(04:07):
for her efforts, but she essentially argues that all this
pressure is going to put so much of a squeeze
on Nicholas Maduro that he's going to be.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Forced to leave power.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
The flip side of that is the argument that actually,
by creating this extremely tense environment, that only gives Maduro
additional strength and support and attracts more people to his
side and essentially entrenches his position so that he emerges
from this even stronger. So there are a lot of
questions about how tenuous his grip on power really is.
(04:38):
But you know, there has been a great deal of reporting,
including by Bloomberg, that he is looking for a way
out and he would vastly prefer a diplomatic solution to this.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
There had been some.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
Reporting that he was even looking for a strong economic
deal where he would essentially sell all Venezuela's oil to
the United States.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
I asked Beco Wawer, the defense lead at Bloomberg Economics,
to detail just how much military might the US is
mobilized off of South America.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
Well, we've got a lot of seapower, airpower, and firepower
now in the Caribbean and in the Eastern Pacific, and honestly,
this is probably the most that we've seen in those
two regions for quite some time. So we've got multiple
guided missile destroyers which tend to carry missiles, including Tomahawk
(05:28):
land attack missiles that could be used in potential strikes.
We also have an amphibious Ready Group, which allows the
US to have a number of forces in the region.
So this is where you see a marine expeditionary unit
embarked upon and it should be there in about a week.
Or so, and that's going to bring not only sizeable
(05:51):
number of sailors aboard, but also aircraft fighter aircraft that
can take off from the decks of the carrier and
potentially do strikes on either ships, whether it's these narco
trafficking boats or perhaps even strikes on land. In addition
to that, we've seen some special Forces assets in the
(06:13):
region as well, which is added to some of the
potential pressure campaign that right now, this build up is
likely placing on Maduro, where it is almost a bit
of a psychological operation. It's not just about the build
up itself and what those capabilities could bring, but as
Nick was talking about, what it is that that pressure
could force Maduro to actually end up doing, which could
(06:36):
be potentially stepping down from power.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Yeah, Nick, I think of this piece that retired Admiral
James Uvritis road for Bloomberg Opinion, which he said, Look,
if the goal here is to take out narco traffickers,
take out these boats, there's no way you would need
this much manpower and this much military equipment. So what
does it indicate to you just all that's being marshaled.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
There right I Mean, it's a great question because when
you're deploying an aircraft carrier strike grew and then you
look at the size of the boats that the administration
has essentially been blowing out of the water.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
There does seem to be a real imbalance there.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
So, you know, the big question we've really been trying
to answer is how much of this is actually heading
toward some sort of massive conflict where the US would
strike the land, which after all, is something that President
Trump has said he's willing to do. And how much
of it is essentially the president using military assets at
his disposal to basically act as a deterrent, to send
(07:32):
a threatening message.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
That it's all bluster. You know.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
The administration, when we have asked him about this, have said, hey,
we've deployed military assets all around the world for many years,
and then when we deploy them in our own backyard,
suddenly the media freaks out. Why shouldn't we be interested
in what's going on in our own hemisphere? And that
really is sort of part of the problem. Where in
past administrations when you had strikes like this, a lot
(07:58):
of it was done in secrecy, but then there would
at least be some attempt to sort of explain or
walk people through a lot of the details, maybe on
background or even off the record, sort of making the
case in a very clear way about what the strategy
actually was for doing all of these things, which on
(08:21):
the surface seemed to be rather contradictory. And right now,
aside from some pronouncements, we have not really been able
to interrogate the administration in a public way about why
precisely they feel if this is a campaign designed to
target narco traffickers, they need to deploy an aircraft carrier
strike group and a submarine and all of these other
(08:44):
assets which would in any other circumstance be seen as
essentially a prelude to an invasion.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
After the break, what a US attack on Venezuela could
look like, and how that country's oil reserves are shaping
the Trump administration's plans. Because something you have a lot
of experience with are war games gaming out sort of
(09:15):
what might happen in a scenario like this, How do
you look at sort of the way that this might
evolve and what that might mean, how it might play on.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
Yeah, so with my war gaming hat on, thinking about
all of the games that I've run for the Department
of Defense and for other militaries around the globe. I
sort of see this as there being a few different options.
You know, one would be using some of the covert
assets that the US uses, trying to use special operations
forces to do some type of regime change from within.
(09:46):
I think that that's a little bit more of a
less likely scenario. So instead, that makes me think that
there's probably two potential strike options if we're looking at
the assets that are currently in theater. The first one
is going after infrastructure, having these big, showy strikes that
are very visible and very public and can last for
(10:08):
several days, maybe a few weeks. The second option would
be one that's more so going after the various nodes
of the cartels, so going after different transportation routes, going
after cartel leadership, particularly when they're on the move. And
this is going to look a lot like some of
the counter terrorism operations that we've seen in places like
(10:29):
Afghanistan and Iraq. It's going to require a bunch of
air power and air strikes. So really I think what
we're seeing here are two kind of options. These big
attacks kind of a little bit like what we saw
the administration do against the Huthi's earlier this year, and
then also these almost counter terrorism style attacks where they're
(10:50):
going to go after transportation nodes and key leadership. In
both cases, there's a fairly limited track record of success.
So that doesn't necessarily give me a lot of hope
that if the US were to conduct any of these
strikes that they would be successful at going after and
stabbing the flow of drugs, if that truly is what
(11:12):
the impetus for these attacks would be.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
Nick, I know that Venezuela has an awful lot of oil,
and I wonder how that might be shaping the way
the administration is thinking about its course forward.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
David, that is really at the heart of so much
of this, because when you look at this conflict through
the perspective of oil, you really start to peel back
a lot of layers and see some hidden currents that
have been coursing through this administration since Trump came back.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
So you've essentially got two pulls.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
One is Marco Rubio, who wants to ramp up even
further the sanctions that have been imposed on Venezuela to
choke off its oil industry, stop the flow of oil,
and really starve Maduro of the hard currency.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
He needs to stay afloat.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
On the other hand, you have a Trump advisor who's
now actually run the Kennedy Center for Donald Trump. He's
the former ambassador to Germany, someone named Richard Grenell, and
he had been pushing this idea that no, let's open
it up entirely. Let's essentially create a situation where we
lift all the sanctions and then the United States buys
all of Venezuela's oil, and then we can tear iff
(12:19):
the heck out of everything coming in from Venezuela and
essentially make Venezuela the fifty first state of the United States.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
So a very different approach and sort of playing.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Do you have these two advisors playing to different aspects
or different impulses from the president, one being his desired
piece through strength and desire to get tough, and then
the other, Hey, tariffs and business deals and let's make
a deal art of the deal. You know, I don't
care so much about your values and whether you believe
in democracy as long as we have a business partnership
(12:52):
between the two countries. And safe to say, right now,
the Rubio approach has definitely won. There is absolutely no
indication that present and Trump is going to be willing
anytime soon to lift those sanctions and pursue any sort
of oil deals with Venezuela. But he is getting pressure
from some of his allies. Obviously, the oil majors. Chevron
(13:12):
still does some business in Venezuela. They would love to
get into that market. And the question is, well, how
long does Trump's patients last? Is he really after coming
to the presidency billing himself as the peace president, He's
solved a bunch of wars, he didn't start any new ones.
Is he really going to commit to the idea of
(13:34):
a massive campaign? I mean, right now there essentially there's
very little notion that the US would put actual boots
on the ground in Venezuela. But is he willing to
enter into a lengthy air campaign against Venezuela when it
goes against so much of the reasons why he said
he deserved to be president a second time? And how
much is he going to lose patients for that effort
(13:54):
and then try to lean into some other effort where
he could essentially cut a deal with Maduro the way
you saw him try to cut a deal with Vladimir
putin North Korea? Is Kim jong Un and even in
some cases you know has said he wants to cut
a deal with a run.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gurat.
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