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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
On the first day of September, Chinese President Shi Jinping
hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister, and around
the Mody and more than twenty other foreign leaders in
the port city of Tanjin. The occasion the annual summit
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or SEO.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
So the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a regional security block.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Daniel tan Kit is Bloomberg's executive editor for Asia Economy
and Government. He says, the SEO as an organization isn't
that important, but at the summit, there was one particular
moment that made the occasion significant.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Mody being really chummy with Putin and with she smiling broadly.
They were laughing about something. She was holding Mody's hand
at one point, a lot of backside. It was just
old friends getting together, and it was significant because Mody
hasn't actually been to China in seven years, so this
(01:07):
wasn't like we talk all the time. Now. She and
Putin talk all the time. They meet up regularly and
they do this all the time. But Mody joining the group,
that was highly significant. He's back in the fold, so
to speak.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
China and India have clashed over border disputes for decades.
Their relationship hit rock bottom in twenty twenty after fighting
along the border in the contested Western Himalayas left soldiers
on both sides dead, But at Tinjin there were no
signs of hostility. Instead, Dan says Mody's presence at the
(01:42):
summit and his chummy interactions with Putin and She were
deliberate signals aimed squarely at one person.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
All of this has to be seen in the context
of what happened last month, with Trump essentially putting on
punitive tariffs onto India, calling India's economy a dead economy,
really dialing up the insults to Modi. So when Mody
joins and he's smiling with Putin and She, that's essentially
(02:12):
a message to Trump saying, look, I don't need you,
I have options. I'm not going to be bullied and
pushed around by you. I'm not going to kowtow to
what you want. It doesn't really mean that Mody is
jumping into China's camp, but it does mean he can
be friends with everyone's too, and nobody's going to tell
him what to do. Especially Trump.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons, and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show, China, Russia,
and India appear to be forming a new and powerful partnership.
(02:58):
What's driving the bromance between she Putin and Mody and
what could it mean for Trump? The image of she
Putin and Mody holding hands and laughing together in Tianjin
was a striking moment that went viral. But beyond the symbolism,
(03:20):
this apparent alliance could have big consequences politically and economically, Dan,
What does each country want from this alignment?
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Russia needs money. It's got its two biggest buyers of
energy there, India buys a lot of oil from Russia.
Having India buy oil gives them hard currency. Same with China.
China has been the primary economic partner of Russia and
is stuck by Russia ever since Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
(03:52):
It's been its most important economic partner to the extent
where Putin really needs China to stay aflow and fight.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
This war, and what about MODI in India? What's in
it for them?
Speaker 1 (04:04):
India, they were buying Russian oil because it's cheaper, and
India's got a big population, it's very price sensitive. So
if they can keep costs down, keep inflation down, that's
politically good for Modian, good for India's economy. With China,
India also needs inputs for its manufacturing sector, so it
needs Chinese expertise, needs engineers, it needs inputs so factories
(04:27):
can get what they need to assemble in India and
ship that overseas. So if India wants to be a
manufacturing center, it also needs good relations with China, and
there's increasing realization in Delhi that that is essential to
move forward. And just politically, when Trump is going after you,
these are your friends, They're willing to welcome you with
(04:48):
open arms, and so it gives MODI some strategic depth
in that sense.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Now, energy is such a crucial component to these relationships,
and I want to into that a little bit more.
Following the summit and the military parade in Beijing, you
had gas Prom, Russia state controlled energy giant, saying it's
signed a binding deal with China to build a new
gas pipeline called Siberia two. What is that deal entail
(05:15):
and why is it so important?
Speaker 1 (05:18):
So Russia has been wanting this deal to go through
for years and it comes up every time she and
putin me and we never really get anything. So the
fact that we got something on paper indicates that there's
progress here. So what does the deal entail? We got
some details from Gazprom. The chief executive officer, alexey Miller
(05:42):
said that Gasprom could ship as much as fifty billion
cubic meters a year for thirty years, so at full capacity,
it would be equal to nearly a third of total
Russian pipeline exports to Europe back in twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Dan shays, while the deal is big, it wouldn't offset
what Russia would sell to Europe if it had the opportunity,
and it's not clear exactly when the project will move forward.
The two sides still haven't agreed on how much China
will pay for Russian oil, which is a key sticking point.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
What people are saying is that they want a deal
that is far below what Gasprom charges customers in Europe
and is essentially what Russians pay for it. Which is
a low price. So for China, they're looking for a
deal here and they're probably going to get one.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
This comes as the US and its European allies have
made sanctions on Russian oil and gas a pain point
right to bring putin to negotiate peace with Ukraine and
in the war. What does this mean for the US
then in terms of this.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Deal, Yeah, it's interesting if you look at how the
US is trying to pressure Russia right now, it's mainly
targeting India. So why is that the case. China's Russia's
most important economic partner. It's buying a lot of energy.
The problem is that Trump already is put massive tariffs
(07:04):
on China earlier this year, up to one hundred and
forty five percent. Then China cut off rare earths and
Trump realized he needed those for military applications and other things,
including cars and all sorts of sectors. So they reached
a deal where Beijing would keep the rear ears flowing,
they would bring taris down to a certain level, and
(07:24):
there's sort of a truce in an equilibrium now. So
there's not many options for Trump here. That's why he's
hitting India because he can raise Harris on India, and
there's not much India can do about it. What's interesting
is that she decided to announce this. Now, he didn't
give us many details, and this thing might all fall
apart still, but it certainly sends a message to Trump.
(07:47):
You know, you're hitting India for financing Russia's war effort
by buying cheap oil. Well, hey, we're going to buy
gas for thirty years and keep financing his regime. And
there's not much you can do about it.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Now, how is this Club of three good for China?
And she's image, she.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Jipig, wants to be this diplomat, the state's statesman, someone
in the world can turn to as an alternative to
the US led world order. Now, if you think about
the Biden administration, there was at one point, right after
Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the US is really trying to
(08:26):
isolate Russia on the world stage and isolate China along
with it, and get every country to gang up against
those two and put sanctions on and China was feeling
the pressure at that time. Now fast forward to today,
and it's the exact opposite. You have Putin going to Beijing,
(08:46):
and you have a bunch of other countries, including India,
including democracies. You know this notion that the Americans were
pushing for a long time, which is, you know, you're
an authoritarian regime. You're against the tide of history destroying
the rules based order. Now, Siziping is in Beijing talking
about how all countries need to be equal. Strong countries
(09:09):
shouldn't pressure weak countries. Everyone needs to follow international law.
Chiziping is using some of the same language that the
Americans were using against China for years. And because Trump
is in office and just breaking norms left and right,
throwing teriffs on everyone else, He's able to attract all
these countries looking to She is the more stable option
(09:32):
right now.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
In the world, and Beijing's gain could be Washington's loss.
Narender Mody was one of the first world leaders to
visit the White House falling Trump's return to office. He
called Trump a great friend, and the two pledged to
double US India trade to five hundred billion dollars by
twenty thirty. Now Mody's seen holding hands and laughing it
(09:53):
up with the leaders of Russia and China, two of
the US's biggest rivals. How do we get here and
what could it mean for the US. That's after the break.
(10:15):
Just two days after President She Putin and Mody put
the bromance on display in Tanjin, she hosted a second gathering,
a military parade attended by more than twenty five foreign leaders.
Mody wasn't there, but Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim
Jong un were the guests of honor. The events guest
(10:39):
list and its lavish display of weaponry caught the attention
of President Trump. He took a swipe but She on
social media.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
He said, May President She and the wonder people of
China have a great and lasting day of celebration. Please
give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong
Un as you conspire against the United States of America.
So clearly he's watching that. He actually said something to
the effect of, they hoped I was watching, and I
was watching, So you know, Trump really wanted to meet
(11:11):
all of these leaders, actually Putin, Kim and She. So
you know, there's in subtle fomo there, right, I think so,
I mean, in some ways, I'm sure he wishes he
was there. He even said, I have great relations with
all these countries. Like, you know, he's trying to be
buddy buddy with them. He's really stuck here because in
some ways he knows that if he capitulates, he will
(11:32):
look weak. But at the same time he wants to
be part of this club.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
The parade in Beijing and the summit in Tanjin put
China's global influence and ambitions on display, and it seemed
to unite world leaders who are sick of being pushed
around by Trump. Take India's Narrender Modi. New Delhi has
long standing ties to Moscow, the date back to the
Soviet era, and Russia is India's biggest weapon suppliers. Uh's
(12:00):
invasion of Ukraine has cast a spotlight on the relationship
and put India in a tough spot.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
India wanted to have good relations with the West. It
wanted to wean itself off of Russian weaponry in particular
and get more into the American defense orbit, and of
course the US wanted India closer as a counterweight to China.
Now Mody and she, yeah, it wasn't great at all
(12:28):
since the twenty twenty clash, and India might have gone
even further than the US in some respects in banning
Chinese investment and taking kind of a hard line against China.
So there was certainly no love there and that was
pretty remarkable to go from that situation to holding hands
and laughing at like world best Place.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Now you mentioned how Trump has insulted Mody in the
past few months. Can you walk us through exactly how
this relationship has deteriorated to this point between the India
and US. I mean, how did we get here with
the US and India being in the state that they are.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Now If you look back in the beginning of the year,
Mody went to the White House restored the friendship. And
this goes back to Trump's first term when Mody invited
Trump to Goudarat, which is Mody's home state in India.
And then India was probably the first out of the
gate to try and negotiate a trade deal. They were
(13:26):
announcing progress really early after Liberation Day in April, so
it looked like India could be one of the first deals.
And then Trump realized what is his leverage against Putin?
That really took over everything. Mody was just caught in
that because India was the only bit of leverage that
Trump had against putin. Now, you could argue, did Trump
(13:48):
need to call India's economy a dead economy? I think
that's what stunned everyone was the way he did it.
He could have done it in a way that was
more I really don't want to do this. This is
important now, and you could have done it in a
way that could save Mody some face. But that's just
not Trump's style. You know, he goes full in when
he goes all scorched to earth, all scorched earth, and
(14:10):
he's used to just you know, using his charm. He'll
insult you one second and then he'll be your best
buddy the next. But that's not going to work in India.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
The idea of a strategic triumvit consisting of Russia, India,
and China goes back to the nineteen nineties, and for
decades the US has courted India as a counterweight to
China in Asia, with some success. Still, India has long
maintained a neutral stance on diplomacy that goes back to
the Cold War. It rarely shows outright support for either
(14:43):
China or the US. That's why Dan says this sudden
souring of relations between the US and India is baffling
to almost everybody.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
I took to former US officials all over the region.
I mean everyone is talking just about Trump's you turn
on India. I'm sure the Indians are wondering the same thing.
It was so abrupt and in a matter of weeks,
you just undid really decades of work, and it's going
to cause decades of damage.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
And how are these new and old relationships that China's forming,
How are they reshifting the world order? Are we seeing
a geopolitical realignment of the world order here that China
is orchestrating and leading at the.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Moment in some respects, yes, I mean everything is caveated
in a way because there's no country that really wants
to choose between the US and China. When countries lean
more towards China, that's a natural reaction to the US
using every financial weapon it has to squeeze every country
(15:46):
out there. If China were to do anywhere near the
same thing, countries would shift back to the US. That's
just the way things work now. I think the worry
among some US strategic planners is that as China grows
more powerful in countries increase their dependencies on China. It's
then very hard to reduce those dependencies, particularly if China
(16:08):
continues to control all the world's manufacturing. The fact that
China can make all this stuff, the US can hardly
build a ship anymore. That's why you see the tensions
that are emerging. And the worry is that, Okay, if
that gets entrenched, then there is no alternative to China
for things that you need to run a country. And
(16:30):
if the US can't provide a credible alternative, then maybe
you capitulate to some of these geopolitical demands that China wants,
which is like, you know, you're going to keep quiet
if China wants to take Taiwan one day or something
like that. India is not going to jump in bed
with China. There's just too many obstacles for that to happen.
(16:54):
They have constant disputes along the border. There's a lot
of concern about Chinese filtration of the economy. But for
the moment, those divisions are put aside for a bigger
problem right now, which is Trump. Trump is the bigger problem,
And so you put aside all your differences and you
smile with each other, and you hug each other and
(17:16):
you focus on the thing that unites you at the moment,
and the thing that's uniting everybody is the need to
push back on Trump and not be pushed around by Trump.
And that's what we're seeing play out in Beijing.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time. He
(18:03):
ever part to