August 5, 2025 • 14 mins
President Trump has been cranking up the pressure on India, a country the US has courted as a strategic counterweight against China. Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on the country, a higher rate than many other major economies in Asia. But he didn’t stop there. This week, he’s threatened to raise the levy even higher. His message to India is clear: Stop buying Russian oil.
On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, Bloomberg’s Sudhi Ranjan Sen joins K. Oanh Ha to unpack the historical and economic ties that have kept Russia and India close and discuss why that relationship is now being tested on the world stage.
Read more: Trump Vows to Ramp Up India Tariffs in Escalation of Russia Spat
Further listening: Is Trump’s Trade War Strategy Working?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
President Donald Trump has been cranking up the pressure on India,
a country the US has courted as a strategic counterweight
against China. Last week, Trump announced a twenty five percent
tariff on India, a higher rate than many other major
economies in Asia. But he didn't stop there. This week,
he threatened to raise the levee even higher. His message
(00:32):
to India is clear, stop buying Russian oil.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
If you look at India as much is of Russian oil,
it is substantial. It's about one point seven million battles
a day from Russia.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Shooty run Jensen is a Bloomberg reporter based in New Delhi.
He's covered Indian government and politics for nearly three decades.
Shooty says India has a simple rationale for its purchases
of Russian crude.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
India's position has been very very Kia. The budgies of
energy is dictated by the markets. So forever there is
cheap oil, cheap energy, India will buy.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Trump's threats to India come just days ahead of an
August eighth deadline from Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.
Here's Trump speaking to reporters about the consequences for Russia
if there isn't a peace deal by this Friday, well,
there'll be sanctions. But they seem to be pretty good
at avoiding sanctions. You know, there are wildly characters and
they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
To pile pressure on Moscow, the Trump administration is now
threatening what's known as secondary sanctions on countries that purchase
Russian energy, like India. But for India, these threats feel
a bit out of place, given that the country in
Russia have cultivated strong and stable ties for the last
seven decades.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Why as India's tigns with Russia come under the scrutiny.
India also doesn't understand why, because the ties with Russia
are not new. The fact that India has been buying
oil ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in twenty
twenty two is not new. What went wrong is also
a question that is foxy Indian officials, diplomats and policymakers.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies. And the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
India's thirst for Russian oil and its long standing romance
with Moscow, how that's straining India's relations with the US
(02:40):
and making the country a target for Trump. The US
has slapped twenty five percent tariffs on goods from India,
and President Trump this week threatened to substantially raise levies
over India's purchases of Russian oil. Bloomberg reporter Shooty run
and Sen says in India, officials are scratching their heads
(03:04):
over why India's ties with Russia have become targets for Trump.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Now there are no clear answers, so to say, within
India and the policy circles as well, because people and
government officials I have been speaking to are quite taken
aback or shocked to see the kind of reaction. It's
not at all new. India's purchase of Russian crude, Russian
energy is at least two years old start to the
Russia's invasion of Ukraine. You know, perhaps it is linked
(03:30):
to President trump frustration in not being able to get
the Russia Ukraine war to ent and since that has
failed India seems to be an unintended consequence and as
a result of which the entire India US relationship. Now
there is a huge question mark over that how.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Much oil does India buy from Russia and why.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
If you look at India's purchase of Russian oil, it
is substantial, It's about between one thous and forty percent.
But at the same time point of time, much of
this purchase is spot buying. It is at the moment,
depending on the prices, whoever is cheaper. Before the invasion
of Ukraine and before the sanctions of the price gap
(04:13):
came in on Russian oil and more importantly, Europe stopped
buying it was minimal, if at all, India ever bought
Russian crude. After the invasion of Ukraine. When Europe stops
buying Russian crude and swings towards the Gulf, prices go
up and the amount of crude and gas available from
(04:34):
the Gulf reduces. India then swings towards Russia, which was
then offering a huge discountant continues to offer a discount.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
And is that such a huge discount that India feels
like it needs to go to Russia And at the
same time antagonize the US and the international community, which
obviously has sanctions on Russian oil.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
This is a question that very often has come up
in briefings, in policy discussions between reporters and the government,
and the assessment that India has is that if India
ware to stop buying Russian crude completely, shun and abundant it,
then the prices of crude more likely will be unsustainable
(05:16):
for India and its economic growth and many other countries
in the global South.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
So you're saying that India's demand for crude is so
high that if it didn't buy from Russia, it would
then elevate the price of oil in the market.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Yeah. Yeah, I mean India is one of the largest
importers of crude. I mean it imports more or less
majority about eighty percent of its requirement. So if these
countries are specifically indiawa better stopped, then the prices of
crude are going to go up. And that's been the
constant refrain and argument that we have seen coming from
(05:50):
the government.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Are there any signs that India is going to stop
buying oil from Russia at this point, No, we don't
have anything.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
To say that India is going to stop buying Russia.
In fact, on the country, the government has made it
very clear that decision to buy oil is completely market driven.
There has been a very uncharacteristic and a very sharp
rebuttal that we have seen from India. If you look
at the statement that came from India, the statement says
the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. So it
(06:18):
does feel that it's being singled out for no fault
of its own.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
I want us to step back a little bit. Why
is it that the India Russia relationship is a close one.
What are the roots of that closeness and how has
that partnership evolved to where it is today.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Well, I mean the India Russia relationship, if you to
go back and briefly recapture at one level, stretches back
to the Cold War. And if you look at the
nineteen seventy one war between India and Pakistan, which is
a watershed in ties, the United States sided with Pakistan
(06:53):
on the country. You saw Soviet Russia at that point
of time coming out in support of India. That kind
of sealed the relationship.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
So in some ways did the US support of Pakistan
then push India into Russia's arms very definitely.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
India has been a nation that it avowned non alignment,
but it has leaned on Russia, then Soviet Russia and
now Russia is one of the countries that have helped
India in its industrial process of industrialization in the sense
it has helped set up state lights, It has helped
India set up nuclear poplants, It has helped India in agriculture,
(07:32):
has helped India in space research.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
For seven decades, India has managed to keep a strong
and stable relationship with Russia while balancing its relationship with
China and the US. After the break, can India keep
juggling those balls in the air? And what's at stake
for Prime Minister in Marender Modi and US India ties.
(08:07):
The US is penalizing India's purchases of Russian oil and
weapons with a twenty five percent terraff freight, plus an
additional penalty that's not yet disclosed. The US is India's
largest trading partner and biggest export market for goods and services.
Bloomberg Shooty Runje and Sen says that the tariffs could
hurt India's economy and Prime Minister and a render modis
(08:31):
bracing the country for a possible hit.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
Trade and taris will have an issue because there's a
cascading effect on the economy. The sectors that are likely
to be affected of the sectors that are dependent on
exports and therefore then has a very negative impact on
the growth of the Indian economy. What we have seen
is the government trying to move in the head of
(08:54):
time and take remedial measure. Recently, we heard the Prime
Minister of in addressing a political raleigh telling Indians that
you need to buy local stuff and that is important
because that's a way to keep the economy going should
it be hit by the tariffs, by the penalties. So
India has already started looking at how do you keep
(09:17):
the economy going protect the economy.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
What does this turn of tone mean for Modi now
that the US is criticizing India heavily and slapped a
very high tariff.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
This kind of a setback or an unraveling of a
high profile relationship between Prime Minister Narindromodi and President Trump
is going to be costly because Prime Minister has marketed
this to his followers, to his voters saying that it
is because of his government's policies and his own diplomacy.
(09:50):
And India is on such a sweet spot with the
United States. Now if everything way to turn sour, there
is going to be political cost. There is going to
be questions. Questions are already in fact being asked by
the opposition.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
And what about the other personal stakes for Modi? Is
it important for him to be able to provide cheap
energy for the country And if that doesn't come true,
is he in danger?
Speaker 1 (10:13):
See if cheap energy is not there, or if energy
becomes costlier than what it is already. Energy is already
quite costly in India. If it becomes even more costly,
that's going to have an impact on the economy, and
that's going to have an impact on the inflation. That's
therefore going to have an impact on or decide how
the central bank easn up money or tighten money control,
(10:34):
which is then going to have an impact on investments, jobs,
and then it is going to cascade down to unemployment
and money in the hands of people. So very very definitely,
energy is going to have an impact. And India as
a country is very sensitive to inflation.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
And I wonder if that's a big reason driving India's
defiance that is not going to step down from buying
Russian oil at this point, Yes.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Because that is definitely one of the since that India
is defined in the sense it doesn't want to immediately
comply with the United States and stop buying Russian oil
because it does impact the economy. It does impact the
economy very negatively and the consequences of which are many fold.
And therefore, as a political leader privateism mode would want
(11:19):
to protect his votes, his constituency, his ability to win elections.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
China, of course, also has close ties to Russia. Does
India feel like it's being picked on in that the
US hasn't gone after China? People in India pointing out
the fact that the US hasn't done anything about China,
hasn't threatened China because of its Russian ties or its
purchases of Russian oil.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
If you look at the broad figures, China Russia's trade
is over two hundred million dollars. In comparison, the India
Russia trade is not as big. So it's quite clearly
that the China Russia trade relationship is much deeper, much bigger,
but Why has China been left out? Why as India
been singled out? It's very obvious that China has more
(12:03):
leverage and what of these leverages could be the rare earth,
So the leverages that China has is bigger, higher, and
therefore the United States may not have gone after China,
whereas India has a soft target.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Still, India has had a knack for doing this geopolitical
balancing act between Russia, China and the US for decades. Now,
can India still continue to juggle and keep those balls
up in the air, especially with these higher stakes now
at play.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Well, India has been able to juggle, and that is
something in the past we have seen Foreign Minister Subramani
of Jishanka taking great pleasure in saying that India's diplomacy
can juggle multiple balls at the same point of time.
But President Trump has injected a lot of unpredictability in
foreign policy.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Now, Shureti, how do you think this might all play out?
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Very difficult to say how this is going to play out.
At the moment, it looks, you know, the relationship looks
to be at a bad place. But this is not
the first time India relations with the United States have
gone through back patches, and they've always recovered. They're both
matured democracies. If past is any indicator, this will also pass.
(13:17):
This will not be the defining, so to say, the
defining moment, or the defining even of the India US relationship.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.
To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
President Donald Trump has been cranking up the pressure on India,
a country the US has courted as a strategic counterweight
against China. Last week, Trump announced a twenty five percent
tariff on India, a higher rate than many other major
economies in Asia. But he didn't stop there. This week,
he threatened to raise the levee even higher. His message
(00:32):
to India is clear, stop buying Russian oil.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
If you look at India as much is of Russian oil,
it is substantial. It's about one point seven million battles
a day from Russia.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Shooty run Jensen is a Bloomberg reporter based in New Delhi.
He's covered Indian government and politics for nearly three decades.
Shooty says India has a simple rationale for its purchases
of Russian crude.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
India's position has been very very Kia. The budgies of
energy is dictated by the markets. So forever there is
cheap oil, cheap energy, India will buy.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Trump's threats to India come just days ahead of an
August eighth deadline from Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.
Here's Trump speaking to reporters about the consequences for Russia
if there isn't a peace deal by this Friday, well,
there'll be sanctions. But they seem to be pretty good
at avoiding sanctions. You know, there are wildly characters and
they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
To pile pressure on Moscow, the Trump administration is now
threatening what's known as secondary sanctions on countries that purchase
Russian energy, like India. But for India, these threats feel
a bit out of place, given that the country in
Russia have cultivated strong and stable ties for the last
seven decades.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Why as India's tigns with Russia come under the scrutiny.
India also doesn't understand why, because the ties with Russia
are not new. The fact that India has been buying
oil ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in twenty
twenty two is not new. What went wrong is also
a question that is foxy Indian officials, diplomats and policymakers.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies. And the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
India's thirst for Russian oil and its long standing romance
with Moscow, how that's straining India's relations with the US
(02:40):
and making the country a target for Trump. The US
has slapped twenty five percent tariffs on goods from India,
and President Trump this week threatened to substantially raise levies
over India's purchases of Russian oil. Bloomberg reporter Shooty run
and Sen says in India, officials are scratching their heads
(03:04):
over why India's ties with Russia have become targets for Trump.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Now there are no clear answers, so to say, within
India and the policy circles as well, because people and
government officials I have been speaking to are quite taken
aback or shocked to see the kind of reaction. It's
not at all new. India's purchase of Russian crude, Russian
energy is at least two years old start to the
Russia's invasion of Ukraine. You know, perhaps it is linked
(03:30):
to President trump frustration in not being able to get
the Russia Ukraine war to ent and since that has
failed India seems to be an unintended consequence and as
a result of which the entire India US relationship. Now
there is a huge question mark over that how.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Much oil does India buy from Russia and why.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
If you look at India's purchase of Russian oil, it
is substantial, It's about between one thous and forty percent.
But at the same time point of time, much of
this purchase is spot buying. It is at the moment,
depending on the prices, whoever is cheaper. Before the invasion
of Ukraine and before the sanctions of the price gap
(04:13):
came in on Russian oil and more importantly, Europe stopped
buying it was minimal, if at all, India ever bought
Russian crude. After the invasion of Ukraine. When Europe stops
buying Russian crude and swings towards the Gulf, prices go
up and the amount of crude and gas available from
(04:34):
the Gulf reduces. India then swings towards Russia, which was
then offering a huge discountant continues to offer a discount.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
And is that such a huge discount that India feels
like it needs to go to Russia And at the
same time antagonize the US and the international community, which
obviously has sanctions on Russian oil.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
This is a question that very often has come up
in briefings, in policy discussions between reporters and the government,
and the assessment that India has is that if India
ware to stop buying Russian crude completely, shun and abundant it,
then the prices of crude more likely will be unsustainable
(05:16):
for India and its economic growth and many other countries
in the global South.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
So you're saying that India's demand for crude is so
high that if it didn't buy from Russia, it would
then elevate the price of oil in the market.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Yeah. Yeah, I mean India is one of the largest
importers of crude. I mean it imports more or less
majority about eighty percent of its requirement. So if these
countries are specifically indiawa better stopped, then the prices of
crude are going to go up. And that's been the
constant refrain and argument that we have seen coming from
(05:50):
the government.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Are there any signs that India is going to stop
buying oil from Russia at this point, No, we don't
have anything.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
To say that India is going to stop buying Russia.
In fact, on the country, the government has made it
very clear that decision to buy oil is completely market driven.
There has been a very uncharacteristic and a very sharp
rebuttal that we have seen from India. If you look
at the statement that came from India, the statement says
the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. So it
(06:18):
does feel that it's being singled out for no fault
of its own.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
I want us to step back a little bit. Why
is it that the India Russia relationship is a close one.
What are the roots of that closeness and how has
that partnership evolved to where it is today.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Well, I mean the India Russia relationship, if you to
go back and briefly recapture at one level, stretches back
to the Cold War. And if you look at the
nineteen seventy one war between India and Pakistan, which is
a watershed in ties, the United States sided with Pakistan
(06:53):
on the country. You saw Soviet Russia at that point
of time coming out in support of India. That kind
of sealed the relationship.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
So in some ways did the US support of Pakistan
then push India into Russia's arms very definitely.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
India has been a nation that it avowned non alignment,
but it has leaned on Russia, then Soviet Russia and
now Russia is one of the countries that have helped
India in its industrial process of industrialization in the sense
it has helped set up state lights, It has helped
India set up nuclear poplants, It has helped India in agriculture,
(07:32):
has helped India in space research.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
For seven decades, India has managed to keep a strong
and stable relationship with Russia while balancing its relationship with
China and the US. After the break, can India keep
juggling those balls in the air? And what's at stake
for Prime Minister in Marender Modi and US India ties.
(08:07):
The US is penalizing India's purchases of Russian oil and
weapons with a twenty five percent terraff freight, plus an
additional penalty that's not yet disclosed. The US is India's
largest trading partner and biggest export market for goods and services.
Bloomberg Shooty Runje and Sen says that the tariffs could
hurt India's economy and Prime Minister and a render modis
(08:31):
bracing the country for a possible hit.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
Trade and taris will have an issue because there's a
cascading effect on the economy. The sectors that are likely
to be affected of the sectors that are dependent on
exports and therefore then has a very negative impact on
the growth of the Indian economy. What we have seen
is the government trying to move in the head of
(08:54):
time and take remedial measure. Recently, we heard the Prime
Minister of in addressing a political raleigh telling Indians that
you need to buy local stuff and that is important
because that's a way to keep the economy going should
it be hit by the tariffs, by the penalties. So
India has already started looking at how do you keep
(09:17):
the economy going protect the economy.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
What does this turn of tone mean for Modi now
that the US is criticizing India heavily and slapped a
very high tariff.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
This kind of a setback or an unraveling of a
high profile relationship between Prime Minister Narindromodi and President Trump
is going to be costly because Prime Minister has marketed
this to his followers, to his voters saying that it
is because of his government's policies and his own diplomacy.
(09:50):
And India is on such a sweet spot with the
United States. Now if everything way to turn sour, there
is going to be political cost. There is going to
be questions. Questions are already in fact being asked by
the opposition.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
And what about the other personal stakes for Modi? Is
it important for him to be able to provide cheap
energy for the country And if that doesn't come true,
is he in danger?
Speaker 1 (10:13):
See if cheap energy is not there, or if energy
becomes costlier than what it is already. Energy is already
quite costly in India. If it becomes even more costly,
that's going to have an impact on the economy, and
that's going to have an impact on the inflation. That's
therefore going to have an impact on or decide how
the central bank easn up money or tighten money control,
(10:34):
which is then going to have an impact on investments, jobs,
and then it is going to cascade down to unemployment
and money in the hands of people. So very very definitely,
energy is going to have an impact. And India as
a country is very sensitive to inflation.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
And I wonder if that's a big reason driving India's
defiance that is not going to step down from buying
Russian oil at this point, Yes.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Because that is definitely one of the since that India
is defined in the sense it doesn't want to immediately
comply with the United States and stop buying Russian oil
because it does impact the economy. It does impact the
economy very negatively and the consequences of which are many fold.
And therefore, as a political leader privateism mode would want
(11:19):
to protect his votes, his constituency, his ability to win elections.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
China, of course, also has close ties to Russia. Does
India feel like it's being picked on in that the
US hasn't gone after China? People in India pointing out
the fact that the US hasn't done anything about China,
hasn't threatened China because of its Russian ties or its
purchases of Russian oil.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
If you look at the broad figures, China Russia's trade
is over two hundred million dollars. In comparison, the India
Russia trade is not as big. So it's quite clearly
that the China Russia trade relationship is much deeper, much bigger,
but Why has China been left out? Why as India
been singled out? It's very obvious that China has more
(12:03):
leverage and what of these leverages could be the rare earth,
So the leverages that China has is bigger, higher, and
therefore the United States may not have gone after China,
whereas India has a soft target.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Still, India has had a knack for doing this geopolitical
balancing act between Russia, China and the US for decades. Now,
can India still continue to juggle and keep those balls
up in the air, especially with these higher stakes now
at play.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Well, India has been able to juggle, and that is
something in the past we have seen Foreign Minister Subramani
of Jishanka taking great pleasure in saying that India's diplomacy
can juggle multiple balls at the same point of time.
But President Trump has injected a lot of unpredictability in
foreign policy.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Now, Shureti, how do you think this might all play out?
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Very difficult to say how this is going to play out.
At the moment, it looks, you know, the relationship looks
to be at a bad place. But this is not
the first time India relations with the United States have
gone through back patches, and they've always recovered. They're both
matured democracies. If past is any indicator, this will also pass.
(13:17):
This will not be the defining, so to say, the
defining moment, or the defining even of the India US relationship.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.
To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
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