July 15, 2025 • 18 mins
A leaked phone call between Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia's Hun Sen has ignited a significant political crisis in Thailand, leading to large-scale protests and her suspension from office.
On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, host K. Oanh Ha talks to Bloomberg’s Patpicha Tanakasempipat about the political fallout and its impact on the powerful Shinawatra clan, which has dominated Thai politics for almost three decades.
Read more: Humbled Thai Billionaire Is a Warning to Trump-Era Populists
Further listening: What Thailand's Same-Sex Marriage Victory Means for the Economy
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
In late May, troops from Thailand and Cambodia exchanged gunfire
in a disputed border area, leaving a Cambodian soldier dead
and relations between the historic rivals at a dangerous inflection point.
The conflict set off a chain reaction that included border closures,
threats of retaliation, and finally, a phone call between Thailand's
(00:32):
Prime Minister Peton Tarn Shinawat and Hun Sen, the former
leader of Cambodia who still holds power as president of
the country's main political party and the father of its
prime minister. Can you hear me.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well as you can hear in the phone call, she
started by calling him uncle.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Papicha Tanaka Sempipot covers Thailand for Bloomberg out of Bangkok.
She's known by her Thai nickname Best, She said. Pet
tannk Taran is the fourth member of the Shinawat family
to lead Thailand in the last quarter century. Her father,
former Prime Minister Tosin Shinawat, still holds sway in Thai politics.
He and Hunsen forged a friendship years ago.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
She started calling him uncle in the call because to her,
Hunsen was a family friend, and Hunsen had been their
time and again for the Shinawat family, providing them refuge
when they needed. They were so close that Tuksin even
had a room reserved at Hunsen's house.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Pet tunk Tarn's differential tone and calling him uncle was
a tip of the iceberg. During the seventeen minute call,
she appeared to side with Hunsen on multiple occasions, referring
to a top Thai military commander as an opponent and
promising to take care of Hunsen's concerns.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
She sounded critical of the high military, and she characterized
them as the other side, while putting her and Hun
Sent on the same side, and that is probably a.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Breach in the diplomatic protocols.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
It also reflected that the Thai Army and the Thai
government were not seeing eye to eye about the conflict,
which did not inspire confidence in the Thai people.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
A few days after the call, Hunsen posted audio of
the conversation on Facebook, plunging Petung Tarn's coalition government into crisis.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
By the phone call set off a big and dramatic
chain of events, pushing the government to the brink of collapse.
With the exit of a key coalition party. The strong
public reaction to the call also set off several protests,
including a massive one that called for Penalton to resign.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
On June twenty eight.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Twenty thousand people came out that day, and that was
the biggest turnout in a long time.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Peton Tarn eventually apologized for the phone call and claimed
that her methods were actually a negotiating tactic, but the
conversation has left her political future and Thailand's government in limbo.
In the wake of the protests, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended
her as Prime Minister, citing alleged ethical misconduct. The court's verdict,
(03:23):
which is expected to come later this year, could permanently
remove her from the job. This spiraling political turmoil might
all seem very dramatic, but for Thailand, it's a recurring theme.
The nation has seen about twenty constitutions and roughly a
dozen coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in nineteen
(03:44):
thirty two.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
This is really another day in Thai politics, and also
not the first time you find tax in order. Shinawat
family at many turning points or crossroads in contemporary Thai history,
after all disease. The dynasty that has dominated high politics
for the past quarters injury, but now people are wondering
if this is the beginning of the end of their
dynastic rule.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show,
what the recent suspension of Thailand's prime minister could mean
for its battered economy, and after nearly three decades, is
(04:32):
the Shinawat family's grip on Thai politics finally come into
an end. Petung Tarn Shinawat is the fourth member of
the powerful Shinawat clan to lead Thailand. Her family has
dominated high politics ever since her father Toksin first came
(04:53):
into power in two thousand and one.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
They absolutely have huge influence over typ You cannot talk
about Tai politics without mentioning Taxin or his family. Tutxin,
the main character, was Prime miniserve from two thousand and one,
for which he served a full term after winning a
landslide victory, but then his second term in office was
cut short in two thousand and six when the military
seized power.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
The generals in charge accused him of corruption and abusive power.
His party was dissolved and he eventually went into exile.
But even then, as he faced corruption charges, Toxin continued
to influence Thai politics through per Thai, his family's political party.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
When people were voting for Pertai, they knew that they
were essentially voting for a Taxan government without Taxin in
the picture. The Chinawats came back to contest the election
in twenty eleven with the Puts High party under Yin Lak,
who is Tuxan's sister, but her term was again cut short.
And now that brings us to the most recent election
(05:55):
in twenty twenty three, which saw Tuxan's daughter Patan Tan
rise to power and bring her dynasty back to the
top political office.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
And that's where we are. Now.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Why is it that the shino Watts are so popular
and loved by some in Thailand? Why is it that
they have maintained their dominance politically for so many years?
Speaker 1 (06:16):
A lot of that had to do with the lasting
legacy that Taxin left behind when he was Prime Minister.
Taxin is best known for taxonomics, which is a way
of calling his populist economic policies that were spent heavily
on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic consumption, but at
the same time it was also benefiting big businesses, so
(06:39):
he was seen as both pro business as well as
supporting grassroots and one of the most lasting legacies that
he left behind is the universal healthcare that he established
in two thousand and two. His supporters loved him so
much for spreading the benefits of wealth and growth in
a country with big gaps between which and poor.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
You could say that it was really the.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
First time that the grassroots rural farmers felt like they
had a leader that saw them truly.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Tocsin's immense popularity and overwhelming election victories disrupted Thailand's long
standing political order. His politics alienated the old guard and
created powerful enemies among conservatives. That's one of the reasons
he was forced into exile.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
So the establishment saw Tucsin and his clan as a
threat to its political power, social hierarchy, and also a
threat to the monarchy, which is revered as the lynchpin
of Thailand's national identity.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Tocsin came to power on a pro democracy platform, but
in order for him to be able to secure a
safe return to Thailand, he cut a deal with the establishment,
and critics say he abandoned the pro democracy cause. His
party is now in a coalition with one backed by
a general who ousted his sister's government. Now, certainly when
(08:01):
people think about Thai politics, military coup come to mind.
Why is the political situation in Thailand so turbulent and
why have there been so many coups?
Speaker 1 (08:12):
It really comes down to the establishment elites who don't
respect elections but also don't have enough power to sustain
authoritarian rule. The bottom line is Thailand is perhaps a
cautionary tale for what happens to a society where democratic
institutions fall apart, leaving the rich and powerful to fight
it out and election protests, coup, party dissolution, rins and repeat.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
That's what happens in Tip politics.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Now, in your story, you interviewed a political analyst professor
at Bangkok's Chula Lunkorn University, who said very interestingly that
you know, essentially the powers that be aren't interested and
don't care about Thailand moving forward with any kind of
stability and workability, and I wonder, then, what do they
care about and what do these political groups, these political
(09:00):
factions want for Thailand.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
The elite establishment care about maintaining the status quo. The
elite fear that the real democratic reform could unravel the
entire system that they have been building to protect their privileges, precisions,
and immunity from accountability. They want to maintain political control,
which safeguards their massive economic networks, including lands and concessions
(09:28):
and monopolies and military run businesses and the elite patronage system.
The repeated systematic pattern of dissolving political parties, especially those
that won elections over the last twenty years, seems more
than a deliberate way to keep democratic institutions weak and
to keep the traditional status quo for the elites to
(09:49):
stay in power.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
After the break. What the political chaos in Thailand has
meant for its economy and its status in the region.
The potential removal of Thailand's Prime Minister and the ensuing
(10:15):
political upheaval comes as a country faces economic and geopolitical threats.
Bloomberg's Papita Tanaka sempipot or Best says, the latest political
fallout and a revolving door of leaders highlight what has
been a persistent problem in Thailand. There's never been an
elected government in power long enough to actually address the
(10:36):
problems the country is facing.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Thailand has one of the highest income in equality between the.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Rich and the poor.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Thailand is suffering from poor educational system, high household debt,
low private investment, and also really slow economic growth compared
to its regional neighbors.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Much of the country's current predicament stems from as nine
years under the rule of former army chief Prajut chian Ocha,
who rose to power in a coup in twenty fourteen.
The political instability has had long lasting consequences for Thailand's
economy and its standing in the region.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
During the time between twenty fourteen to now, the economy
has crawled at a pace of like just under two
percent annually. Political uncertainty, like frequent changes to governments or
military crews or mass protests have made foreign investors wary
of making long term commitments in the country because they
don't know what's going to happen. Some companies have postponed
(11:37):
or redirected investments to more stable countries in the region,
like Vietnam or Indonesia, and we have seen that foreign
direct investment into Thailand have lagged behind most.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
Of the neighbors.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Not only is Thailand lagging behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia,
it's also found itself distanced from what was once a
powerful ally, the US.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
The US downgraded diplomatic ties with Chailand after the twenty
fourteen coup and scaled back the annual military exercises. So
this has led the military and the military backed governments
at the time to cozy up to China through economic
ties and lessen dependence on Washington. So this makes it
harder for the US to count on Thailand as a
(12:24):
stable ally, particularly in efforts to counter China's growing influence
in the region. And the constant upheaval in the country
also reduces Thailand's strategic leverage between the US and China
and makes it less relevant as an Asian power.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
That doesn't mean Thailand lacks appeal.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
Too much of the world.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Thailand is associated with scenic beaches, Buddhist temples, wild nightlife,
which was all depicted in the hit series White Lotus.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
What happens in Thailand stays in Thailand. So what does
that mean?
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Thailand is also the largest manufacturing hub for automobiles in
Southeast Asia. Automakers from Toyota and Nissan to Ford and
Byd make their cars in the country, earning it the
nickname the Detroit of Asia. And it's a big exporter
of agricultural products. It's the world's biggest rice exporter after India.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
Thailand is also a big commodities player.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
It is one of the world's rice bowls.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Thailand's is also the world's biggest exporter of natural rubber
and one of the biggest exporters of sugar, which the
world cannot live without.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Best says Thailand can't leverage these strengths at home when
the country's leaders have failed to get their act together
over and over again. Prime Minister Peton tarn Shinawat was
criticized for being slow on negotiating a deal with President
Donald Trump on tariffs. The country's goods now face a
thirty six percent levy, among the highest in the region.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
The cause of political turmoil in the country is that
it makes the country look inward and forget the outside world,
and frequent leadership changes have also weakened Highland's ability to
take consistent positions on global and regional issues like global
supply chain disruption or the reordering of the global trade.
And because we spent so many years trying to put
(14:18):
out fires in our own home, it's really hard to
look beyond the smoke and plan for any modernizations.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
So what happens is you don't get to look.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
That far ahead or see long term potential, or see
policies that are more for long term reforms than short
term stimulus.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
There's concern Thailand's economy could slide into a deep recession
in the second half of the year if the country
fails to get a better deal to avoid this steep
US tariffs. With the stakes so high and so much
hinging on Thailand's political future, what happens next to the
suspended prime minister is key. If the court finds you're
(14:59):
not guilty of the ethics violation, she returns as Prime
Minister and everything goes back to normal. But that could
also mean more protests and even military intervention if the
army wants an opportunity to seize power.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
If Pedan Tan is deemed guilty by the court, then
two potential scenarios could happen from that.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
First, she would be disqualified.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Immediately and removed from office, and that would trigger a
new prime minister of vote in the lower house of Parliament.
The best outcome is that the transition of power goes
smoothly to another Prime minister or candidate from the same
ruling Thai party, even though it's not a Shinawat in power,
it's still a Shinawat ally and the Shinawat party that's
(15:42):
still leading the government.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
And there's another possible outcome that could spell trouble for Thailand.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
If the coalition collapses during or before the Prime minister
will vote, we're likely headed for a protracted political deadlock
where no single candidate has enough support from the sitting
lawmakers to become prime minister. Then all hell kind of
breaks loose with no functioning government, and that would threaten
the passage of the budget bill for the next fiscal
(16:13):
year that begins as soon as October. So unless Platai
hangs on, this could be the end of the Shinawat's
dominance in Thai politics.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Now best We started this episode talking about how a
suspension of a Thai prime minister over leaked phone call
is just another day in Thai politics. Even with the
Shinawat family out of the picture. If that were the case,
would that bring about any fundamental change for Thailand's politics
in its future?
Speaker 1 (16:39):
You think this crisis is eye opening, but it will
likely not bring about any fundamental changes to Thailand. The
Shinawats have been a key player in politics for quarter century,
and they may be losing their appeal or it may
be fading as players in this game, but the game
still remains perfectly intact. And if anything, this episode shows
(17:03):
that the game is as rigged as it is efficient
in helping the elite establishment eliminate its enemies.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
It also shows that even.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
If you try to reconcile and coexist with the old guards,
you will be allowed to govern only with the blessing
of the very forces that you opposed. You can be
a pawn in their chess game, while those forces will
never fully trust you.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Be says right now. Despite whoever happens the whole public office,
the real power in Thailand lies with individuals and institutions
that are not elected.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
This episode, Another Day in Hi Politics.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Shows that without a big enough progressive win in Thailand,
there seems to be no way to implement reforms to
eventually break this cycle, and Thailand is possibly set to
remain trapped in this vicious cycle that prevents true democracy
from sticking around long enough after elections to fully take
roots in a country.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
I'm wanha.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
In late May, troops from Thailand and Cambodia exchanged gunfire
in a disputed border area, leaving a Cambodian soldier dead
and relations between the historic rivals at a dangerous inflection point.
The conflict set off a chain reaction that included border closures,
threats of retaliation, and finally, a phone call between Thailand's
(00:32):
Prime Minister Peton Tarn Shinawat and Hun Sen, the former
leader of Cambodia who still holds power as president of
the country's main political party and the father of its
prime minister. Can you hear me.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well as you can hear in the phone call, she
started by calling him uncle.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Papicha Tanaka Sempipot covers Thailand for Bloomberg out of Bangkok.
She's known by her Thai nickname Best, She said. Pet
tannk Taran is the fourth member of the Shinawat family
to lead Thailand in the last quarter century. Her father,
former Prime Minister Tosin Shinawat, still holds sway in Thai politics.
He and Hunsen forged a friendship years ago.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
She started calling him uncle in the call because to her,
Hunsen was a family friend, and Hunsen had been their
time and again for the Shinawat family, providing them refuge
when they needed. They were so close that Tuksin even
had a room reserved at Hunsen's house.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Pet tunk Tarn's differential tone and calling him uncle was
a tip of the iceberg. During the seventeen minute call,
she appeared to side with Hunsen on multiple occasions, referring
to a top Thai military commander as an opponent and
promising to take care of Hunsen's concerns.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
She sounded critical of the high military, and she characterized
them as the other side, while putting her and Hun
Sent on the same side, and that is probably a.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Breach in the diplomatic protocols.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
It also reflected that the Thai Army and the Thai
government were not seeing eye to eye about the conflict,
which did not inspire confidence in the Thai people.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
A few days after the call, Hunsen posted audio of
the conversation on Facebook, plunging Petung Tarn's coalition government into crisis.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
By the phone call set off a big and dramatic
chain of events, pushing the government to the brink of collapse.
With the exit of a key coalition party. The strong
public reaction to the call also set off several protests,
including a massive one that called for Penalton to resign.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
On June twenty eight.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Twenty thousand people came out that day, and that was
the biggest turnout in a long time.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Peton Tarn eventually apologized for the phone call and claimed
that her methods were actually a negotiating tactic, but the
conversation has left her political future and Thailand's government in limbo.
In the wake of the protests, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended
her as Prime Minister, citing alleged ethical misconduct. The court's verdict,
(03:23):
which is expected to come later this year, could permanently
remove her from the job. This spiraling political turmoil might
all seem very dramatic, but for Thailand, it's a recurring theme.
The nation has seen about twenty constitutions and roughly a
dozen coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in nineteen
(03:44):
thirty two.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
This is really another day in Thai politics, and also
not the first time you find tax in order. Shinawat
family at many turning points or crossroads in contemporary Thai history,
after all disease. The dynasty that has dominated high politics
for the past quarters injury, but now people are wondering
if this is the beginning of the end of their
dynastic rule.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show,
what the recent suspension of Thailand's prime minister could mean
for its battered economy, and after nearly three decades, is
(04:32):
the Shinawat family's grip on Thai politics finally come into
an end. Petung Tarn Shinawat is the fourth member of
the powerful Shinawat clan to lead Thailand. Her family has
dominated high politics ever since her father Toksin first came
(04:53):
into power in two thousand and one.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
They absolutely have huge influence over typ You cannot talk
about Tai politics without mentioning Taxin or his family. Tutxin,
the main character, was Prime miniserve from two thousand and one,
for which he served a full term after winning a
landslide victory, but then his second term in office was
cut short in two thousand and six when the military
seized power.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
The generals in charge accused him of corruption and abusive power.
His party was dissolved and he eventually went into exile.
But even then, as he faced corruption charges, Toxin continued
to influence Thai politics through per Thai, his family's political party.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
When people were voting for Pertai, they knew that they
were essentially voting for a Taxan government without Taxin in
the picture. The Chinawats came back to contest the election
in twenty eleven with the Puts High party under Yin Lak,
who is Tuxan's sister, but her term was again cut short.
And now that brings us to the most recent election
(05:55):
in twenty twenty three, which saw Tuxan's daughter Patan Tan
rise to power and bring her dynasty back to the
top political office.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
And that's where we are. Now.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Why is it that the shino Watts are so popular
and loved by some in Thailand? Why is it that
they have maintained their dominance politically for so many years?
Speaker 1 (06:16):
A lot of that had to do with the lasting
legacy that Taxin left behind when he was Prime Minister.
Taxin is best known for taxonomics, which is a way
of calling his populist economic policies that were spent heavily
on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic consumption, but at
the same time it was also benefiting big businesses, so
(06:39):
he was seen as both pro business as well as
supporting grassroots and one of the most lasting legacies that
he left behind is the universal healthcare that he established
in two thousand and two. His supporters loved him so
much for spreading the benefits of wealth and growth in
a country with big gaps between which and poor.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
You could say that it was really the.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
First time that the grassroots rural farmers felt like they
had a leader that saw them truly.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Tocsin's immense popularity and overwhelming election victories disrupted Thailand's long
standing political order. His politics alienated the old guard and
created powerful enemies among conservatives. That's one of the reasons
he was forced into exile.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
So the establishment saw Tucsin and his clan as a
threat to its political power, social hierarchy, and also a
threat to the monarchy, which is revered as the lynchpin
of Thailand's national identity.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Tocsin came to power on a pro democracy platform, but
in order for him to be able to secure a
safe return to Thailand, he cut a deal with the establishment,
and critics say he abandoned the pro democracy cause. His
party is now in a coalition with one backed by
a general who ousted his sister's government. Now, certainly when
(08:01):
people think about Thai politics, military coup come to mind.
Why is the political situation in Thailand so turbulent and
why have there been so many coups?
Speaker 1 (08:12):
It really comes down to the establishment elites who don't
respect elections but also don't have enough power to sustain
authoritarian rule. The bottom line is Thailand is perhaps a
cautionary tale for what happens to a society where democratic
institutions fall apart, leaving the rich and powerful to fight
it out and election protests, coup, party dissolution, rins and repeat.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
That's what happens in Tip politics.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Now, in your story, you interviewed a political analyst professor
at Bangkok's Chula Lunkorn University, who said very interestingly that
you know, essentially the powers that be aren't interested and
don't care about Thailand moving forward with any kind of
stability and workability, and I wonder, then, what do they
care about and what do these political groups, these political
(09:00):
factions want for Thailand.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
The elite establishment care about maintaining the status quo. The
elite fear that the real democratic reform could unravel the
entire system that they have been building to protect their privileges, precisions,
and immunity from accountability. They want to maintain political control,
which safeguards their massive economic networks, including lands and concessions
(09:28):
and monopolies and military run businesses and the elite patronage system.
The repeated systematic pattern of dissolving political parties, especially those
that won elections over the last twenty years, seems more
than a deliberate way to keep democratic institutions weak and
to keep the traditional status quo for the elites to
(09:49):
stay in power.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
After the break. What the political chaos in Thailand has
meant for its economy and its status in the region.
The potential removal of Thailand's Prime Minister and the ensuing
(10:15):
political upheaval comes as a country faces economic and geopolitical threats.
Bloomberg's Papita Tanaka sempipot or Best says, the latest political
fallout and a revolving door of leaders highlight what has
been a persistent problem in Thailand. There's never been an
elected government in power long enough to actually address the
(10:36):
problems the country is facing.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Thailand has one of the highest income in equality between the.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Rich and the poor.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Thailand is suffering from poor educational system, high household debt,
low private investment, and also really slow economic growth compared
to its regional neighbors.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Much of the country's current predicament stems from as nine
years under the rule of former army chief Prajut chian Ocha,
who rose to power in a coup in twenty fourteen.
The political instability has had long lasting consequences for Thailand's
economy and its standing in the region.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
During the time between twenty fourteen to now, the economy
has crawled at a pace of like just under two
percent annually. Political uncertainty, like frequent changes to governments or
military crews or mass protests have made foreign investors wary
of making long term commitments in the country because they
don't know what's going to happen. Some companies have postponed
(11:37):
or redirected investments to more stable countries in the region,
like Vietnam or Indonesia, and we have seen that foreign
direct investment into Thailand have lagged behind most.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
Of the neighbors.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Not only is Thailand lagging behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia,
it's also found itself distanced from what was once a
powerful ally, the US.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
The US downgraded diplomatic ties with Chailand after the twenty
fourteen coup and scaled back the annual military exercises. So
this has led the military and the military backed governments
at the time to cozy up to China through economic
ties and lessen dependence on Washington. So this makes it
harder for the US to count on Thailand as a
(12:24):
stable ally, particularly in efforts to counter China's growing influence
in the region. And the constant upheaval in the country
also reduces Thailand's strategic leverage between the US and China
and makes it less relevant as an Asian power.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
That doesn't mean Thailand lacks appeal.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
Too much of the world.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Thailand is associated with scenic beaches, Buddhist temples, wild nightlife,
which was all depicted in the hit series White Lotus.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
What happens in Thailand stays in Thailand. So what does
that mean?
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Thailand is also the largest manufacturing hub for automobiles in
Southeast Asia. Automakers from Toyota and Nissan to Ford and
Byd make their cars in the country, earning it the
nickname the Detroit of Asia. And it's a big exporter
of agricultural products. It's the world's biggest rice exporter after India.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
Thailand is also a big commodities player.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
It is one of the world's rice bowls.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Thailand's is also the world's biggest exporter of natural rubber
and one of the biggest exporters of sugar, which the
world cannot live without.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Best says Thailand can't leverage these strengths at home when
the country's leaders have failed to get their act together
over and over again. Prime Minister Peton tarn Shinawat was
criticized for being slow on negotiating a deal with President
Donald Trump on tariffs. The country's goods now face a
thirty six percent levy, among the highest in the region.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
The cause of political turmoil in the country is that
it makes the country look inward and forget the outside world,
and frequent leadership changes have also weakened Highland's ability to
take consistent positions on global and regional issues like global
supply chain disruption or the reordering of the global trade.
And because we spent so many years trying to put
(14:18):
out fires in our own home, it's really hard to
look beyond the smoke and plan for any modernizations.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
So what happens is you don't get to look.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
That far ahead or see long term potential, or see
policies that are more for long term reforms than short
term stimulus.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
There's concern Thailand's economy could slide into a deep recession
in the second half of the year if the country
fails to get a better deal to avoid this steep
US tariffs. With the stakes so high and so much
hinging on Thailand's political future, what happens next to the
suspended prime minister is key. If the court finds you're
(14:59):
not guilty of the ethics violation, she returns as Prime
Minister and everything goes back to normal. But that could
also mean more protests and even military intervention if the
army wants an opportunity to seize power.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
If Pedan Tan is deemed guilty by the court, then
two potential scenarios could happen from that.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
First, she would be disqualified.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Immediately and removed from office, and that would trigger a
new prime minister of vote in the lower house of Parliament.
The best outcome is that the transition of power goes
smoothly to another Prime minister or candidate from the same
ruling Thai party, even though it's not a Shinawat in power,
it's still a Shinawat ally and the Shinawat party that's
(15:42):
still leading the government.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
And there's another possible outcome that could spell trouble for Thailand.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
If the coalition collapses during or before the Prime minister
will vote, we're likely headed for a protracted political deadlock
where no single candidate has enough support from the sitting
lawmakers to become prime minister. Then all hell kind of
breaks loose with no functioning government, and that would threaten
the passage of the budget bill for the next fiscal
(16:13):
year that begins as soon as October. So unless Platai
hangs on, this could be the end of the Shinawat's
dominance in Thai politics.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Now best We started this episode talking about how a
suspension of a Thai prime minister over leaked phone call
is just another day in Thai politics. Even with the
Shinawat family out of the picture. If that were the case,
would that bring about any fundamental change for Thailand's politics
in its future?
Speaker 1 (16:39):
You think this crisis is eye opening, but it will
likely not bring about any fundamental changes to Thailand. The
Shinawats have been a key player in politics for quarter century,
and they may be losing their appeal or it may
be fading as players in this game, but the game
still remains perfectly intact. And if anything, this episode shows
(17:03):
that the game is as rigged as it is efficient
in helping the elite establishment eliminate its enemies.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
It also shows that even.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
If you try to reconcile and coexist with the old guards,
you will be allowed to govern only with the blessing
of the very forces that you opposed. You can be
a pawn in their chess game, while those forces will
never fully trust you.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Be says right now. Despite whoever happens the whole public office,
the real power in Thailand lies with individuals and institutions
that are not elected.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
This episode, Another Day in Hi Politics.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Shows that without a big enough progressive win in Thailand,
there seems to be no way to implement reforms to
eventually break this cycle, and Thailand is possibly set to
remain trapped in this vicious cycle that prevents true democracy
from sticking around long enough after elections to fully take
roots in a country.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
I'm wanha.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
Popular Podcasts
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.