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June 24, 2025 15 mins

On Tuesday morning, in a series of posts celebrating the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel, Donald Trump touched on one of Iran’s most significant economic relationships, writing, “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.”

Today on Big Take Asia, host Oanh Ha is joined by John Liu, who oversees Bloomberg’s China coverage from Beijing, to discuss what’s at stake for China in Iran and how the conflict could change China’s game plan — not just in the Middle East, but on the global stage.

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
In a series of posts on truth Social Tuesday morning,
Donald Trump celebrated the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Speaker 3 (00:17):
Presida.

Speaker 4 (00:17):
Trump has announced that sees fire agreement between Israel and Iran,
saying end it's the.

Speaker 3 (00:22):
Twelve days of war. He says a truce is scheduled
to take effect in about five hours time.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
And highlighted what he saw as one of the benefits
of peace, China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.

Speaker 3 (00:35):
After President Trump says that China can buy Iranian oil.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
You can see we're trading below sixty eight dollars a barrel.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
Now we pop hopefully, Trump added in his post, they
will be purchasing plenty from the US. Also, China is
Iran's biggest trading partner and sources about fourteen percent of
its oil from the country. Between China's economic relationship with
Iran and its ongoing trade and botiations with the US,
America's strike against Iran has put China in a difficult position.

Speaker 3 (01:06):
Beijing, meanwhile, has criticized a US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities,
saying again it's willing to join international efforts to restore
peace in the Middle East.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
China, like many countries, also buys oil from Iran's neighbors
that passes through the Strait of Hormoots, which Iran has
threatened to shut down. On Sunday, Secretary of State Marco
Rubio spoke with Fox News and called on China to
apply pressure to Iran when it comes to the Strait.

Speaker 1 (01:32):
I to encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call
him about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits
or Hormones for their oil. If they do that, it'll
be another terrible mistake. Its economic suicide for them if
they do it.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
My Big Take Asia co host Juan Ha spoke with
our colleague John Lou who oversees coverage of China from Beijing.
They talked about what the Israel Iran conflict has revealed
about China's influence in the Middle East and where China's
economic relationship with Iran could go from here.

Speaker 4 (02:01):
I would expect China to take advantage of the situation
in that it will point to the United States and say, look,
the US is providing arms to Israel and those arms
are being used to create instability in the Middle East,
and I think the Chinese will primarily use the situation
as a way of painting the United States as the

(02:21):
unreliable global partner.

Speaker 2 (02:28):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
Sarah Holder with one Ha in Hong Kong today on
the show What's at Stake for China in Iran and
how the conflict could change China's game plan not just
in the Middle East but on the global stage.

Speaker 3 (02:47):
John, thanks so much for joining us.

Speaker 4 (02:49):
It's a pleasure to be here.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
John. We're speaking on Tuesday afternoon. What do we know
about how the Chinese leadership views this conflict in the
Middle East and the US involvement in it?

Speaker 4 (03:00):
First and foremost, I think the number one priority on
chijing pings to do list is the economy. And even
though China is not as much involved in this conflict
as many countries in the Middle East and closer to
the Middle East are, it is affected economically. It gets
a notable amount of energy from Iran, It gets a

(03:21):
lot of energy from the Middle East. Chinese companies are
doing business in the Middle East, the electric car companies
for example, and so if anything, Beijing would like to
see everybody get back to business.

Speaker 3 (03:33):
China condemned the US attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and
pushed a ceasefire proposal at the United Nations. How consistent
is that with China's foreign policy approach when it comes
to conflicts.

Speaker 4 (03:45):
One of the things that China has tried to do
over the last couple of years, especially with President Trump's
return to office, is really portray itself as being this
champion of the developing world, of the global South, and
they have used conflicts like the one between Israel and
Hamas and Gaza and now with Iran to try to

(04:06):
portray itself as being the responsible player on the global stage,
and the United States as being less responsible, as being
the one who is causing chaos, taking actions that are
disrupting trade, causing death and destruction in the Middle East.

Speaker 3 (04:24):
China and Iran have a long history of cooperation, solidified
during the Iran Iraq War in the nineteen eighties, and
China is one of Iran's biggest supplier of arms. In
recent years, China's invested in Iranian infrastructure, telecommunications, and energy sectors,
and the two countries signed a twenty five year cooperation
agreement to strengthen their economic and political alliance. John, how

(04:49):
important is China to Iran's economy and vice versa.

Speaker 4 (04:53):
There is I would say an alignment of interest between
these two nations. They both are seek looking alternative paths
to economic development that may have been shut off or
stymied by the United States or the West. In general,
I would say China is far more important to the
Iranian economy than Iran is to the Chinese economy. China

(05:18):
is the major buyer of Iranian oil that is a
crucial source of income for the regime in Tehran. The
data that we've seen from third party consultants, people who
track this data, China is buying about one point one
million barrels of oil from Iran a day in the
month of May this year. That's down about twenty percent,

(05:40):
but it accounts for about ten percent of how much
oil China is buying every month. China's buying about eleven
twelve million barrels of oil a day, and about one
million plus comes from Tehran, so it is important. Ten
percent is a lot, but it is not so high
that Beijing is dependent on that oil as being the

(06:03):
main driver of its economic growth.

Speaker 3 (06:06):
Last November, a Bloomberg investigation detailed how billions of dollars
of sanctioned Iranian oil is getting into China, even though
on paper the country hasn't imported a single drop since
mid twenty twenty two. How does that oil trade play
into the geopolitical tensions with the US?

Speaker 4 (06:23):
It plays into the geopolitical tensions with the US because
the United States is trying to cut off income to
the Iranian regime, and so if there are buyers of
that oil even though the sanctions are in place, that
is undermining the purpose of those sanctions being put into place.
And so if Washington could put pressure on Beijing to
buy less Iranian oil, that would increase the leverage that

(06:46):
potentially Washington would have with Tehran at the bargaining table.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
Now, about twenty percent of global oil goes through the
Strait of Hormuse every day. The strait is between Iran,
Oman and the United Arab Emirates. It's one of the
world's busiest oil shipping channels. The US asked China to
urge Iran to not close the straight after the US
bombed Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. What does that

(07:10):
say about China's influence over Iran and its role in
this conflict.

Speaker 4 (07:15):
China's influence on Iran, I think is very well known
and pronounced. We have, of course, had China mediating return
to normal diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia a
couple of years ago, and China could play that role
because of the relationship that it has with both Saudi

(07:36):
and Iran, and so I think there is influence. How
much of it that Beijing is willing to use or deploy,
I think that is hard to know. I think though,
that also Iran knows China needs the oil to keep going,
and I don't think Iran necessarily needs Beijing to remind
it that the Strait of Hormus is very important to Beijing.

(07:58):
I think that's very clear to the Iranian And you know,
Iran also wants to sell that oil. It needs the
income to come in, and so there's many many factors
that Tehran would have to consider before it shut that straight.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
That seems unlikely at this point. But if China's access
to Iranian oil was cut off some other way, where
would China get its oil?

Speaker 4 (08:17):
I mean, the other places that China buys a lot
of its energy from include Saudi Arabia, include Russia and
those places. I'm sure, given the current global environment in
terms of energy supplies, would be more than willing to
ramp up their provisions to the Chinese market. The other
thing is China is actually getting to a point where

(08:38):
it's oil demand may be peaking. The International Energy Agency
predicted that oil demand from China would peak in twenty
twenty seven, so that's very close. In the broader picture,
China is really investing in solar and wind and alternative
energies because it sees that as the future, but also
the economy is not doing that great, which means demand

(09:00):
is not growing that quickly.

Speaker 3 (09:02):
Now I want to put it into stark terms, John
without oil, what use then is Iran to China without oil?

Speaker 4 (09:09):
I think there is a diplomatic advantage in having friends
in the Middle East for China. China wants to portray
itself as the champion of the developing world and being
able to point to Tehran, being able to show that
it's helped a neighbor develop, being able to show it's

(09:32):
given support to this country in the Middle East does
help China in its relationship with other parts of the world,
and so there are additional benefits to China in addition
to oil with a weekend Iran.

Speaker 3 (09:46):
Where does that leave China's influence in the Middle East?
That's after the break after the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities,
you had Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Persian Gulf countries
express dismay over the attack. Given that China has been

(10:11):
a supporter of Iran and Iran is now on the
back foot because of this conflict, does this in any
way dent China's influence?

Speaker 4 (10:19):
I think it does put in some questions about some
of these organizations that China has been a part of.
So I'm thinking of the Shahai Cooperation Organization, which Iran
is a member of. It includes China, includes Russia, and
these are meant to be groupings that are supposed to
help country members with creating an alliance of like minded states.

(10:45):
I think the fact that these groupings have not been
able to step in and help Iran as it was
under attack from foreign forces will make them less compelling
of a grouping for other countries to join. Where do
we secure our security if we cannot secure it by
aligning ourselves with China or aligning ourselves with Russia. I

(11:09):
think that ultimately underlines the idea that it is really
the United States alone that is a global power with
reach anywhere around the world.

Speaker 3 (11:20):
And of course, in this conflict, we've seen that the
US is willing to insert itself into Israel's war against Iran.
How might China be viewing this in relation to Taiwan
right in its own backyard, which the US, through a
congressional act provides defensive arms to.

Speaker 4 (11:36):
The focus of Chinese military planners has always been what
to do in case of a conflict over Taiwan. I
don't think the US bombing of the nuclear sites in
Iran changes Chinese calculation about how to respond to some
sort of provocation about Taiwan, or how to respond if

(11:58):
there was a conflict in the United State it did
intervene in that conflict. The United States does sail warships
through the Taiwan Straight on a regular basis in the
South China Sea. There are American bases in Japan, in Korea,
in the Philippines, on Guam, and so I would expect

(12:19):
that Chinese military planners have considered all potential possibilities and
are planning for them. But I don't think this changes
the view that China has of Taiwan in any substantial way.

Speaker 3 (12:34):
Iran will likely need help rebuilding. Will China step up
and consolidate its relationship with Iran and its presence in
the Middle East? Or do you think it's more likely
that it would step back and see what happens in
the region.

Speaker 4 (12:47):
I think immediately China will wait and see how things
sort of unfold. I think in a median term, there
would be definite interests not only by the Chinese government
but lots of Chinese companies and helping to invest and rebuild.
There will obviously be American sanctions. There are already on
what businesses can do in Iran. There may be more

(13:09):
to come, and so this will depend on how discussions
between the US and Tehran go. But if those sanctions
were to loosen it all, I think you would see
a lot of Chinese interests in helping to rebuild Iranian infrastructure.
Probably not in nuclear nuclear especially as it relates to

(13:30):
defense or weapons related technologies. That that would be I imagine
something Beijing would be extremely careful about touching.

Speaker 3 (13:40):
It was President Donald Trump who first announced the ceasefire
between Israel and Iran. China has been largely on the
sidelines of this conflict. What does the US involvement in
China's response tell us about their rivalry to influence and
shape world geopolitics.

Speaker 4 (13:57):
You know, the narrative we've had for many years has
been about how quickly China is catching up to the
United States. And we hear that when it comes to GDP,
when it comes to trade, when it comes to manufacturing,
when it comes to AI and technology and chips. What
this episode I think shows is actually how big the

(14:18):
gap remains when it comes to the thing that matters
the most when it comes to geopolitics on the global stage,
which is military capability. There is nowhere in the world
that the US cannot touch if it's so desired. And
the United States has also shown that when its interests
are infringed, when its interests are at staked, is willing

(14:39):
to take those actions. Those are things that cannot be
said about China, and I think it underlines how big
the power differential remains between these two countries.

Speaker 3 (14:56):
This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
wanha to get more from the Big Take and unlimited
access to all of bloomberg dot com. Subscribe today at
bloomberg dot com Slash podcast offer. If you liked the episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
Wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show.
Thanks for listening, See you next time.
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