March 6, 2025 • 13 mins
A crippling property crisis, mounting debt, weak consumer spending… and now a trade war. Despite the headwinds, China has set an ambitious economic growth goal of about 5% this year.
On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, host K. Oanh Ha speaks to Bloomberg’s John Liu about how Xi Jinping intends to meet the target, and how Trump’s tariff war might sabotage his plans.
Read more: Trump’s Tariffs Push Xi to Overhaul China’s Ailing Growth Model
Further listening:
China’s New Game Plan For Dealing With Trump Tariffs
Xi Has Embraced China’s Tech Titans Once Again. Will It Last?
Watch, from Originals: Can China Avoid Japan’s Lost Decades?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This week, thousands of Chinese lawmakers are gathering in Beijing
for the annual meeting of the NPC, the National People's Congress.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
The National People's Congress is China's parliament. It reads drafts
and passes laws.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
John lu Is, Bloomberg's senior executive editor for Greater China
based in Beijing.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
The number one thing that happens at the Congresses on
the first day, China's premiere gives what is equivalent to
the State of the Nation Address for China. He comes
out and says how the country is doing, how it
did in the past year, and then he lays out
some very important targets for the coming year.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
I want to report to you on the work of
the government for your deliberation and also for comments. For
twenty twenty five, Beijing set an ambitious GDP growth target
of about five percent, and Premier Lie Cheung declared that
vigorously boosting consumption is the government's top priority. To help
(01:10):
ramp up domestic demand, Beijing plans to expand its public
spending by borrowing at a record level. The government raised
the general budget deficit to around four percent of GDP,
the highest level in more than three decades. But it's
unclear whether that kind of stimulus will be enough to
help the Chinese economy, whether the storm ahead, and then
(01:32):
of course there's the wild card.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
China's economy is in this really awkward position at the moment.
Property is struggling, domestic consumption is weak. The only good
thing about the economy has been exports, and now that's
in real danger because of Donald Trump and because of
the tariffs of the United States is imposing. So going
into the future, the question is what can China do
to overcome all these challenges, And the problem is there
(01:57):
isn't a solid, guaranteed solution.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Welcome to The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanh.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
Beijing plans to get people to spend, spend, and spend,
but how and will Trump's trade war get in the
(02:24):
way of those efforts. On Wednesday, Premier Lee Chiang kicked
off the National People's Congress with China's twenty twenty five
Government work report. It reviewed the health of China's economy
and laid out a policy roadmap for the coming year.
Bloomberg's John Liu and his team have been closely reporting
(02:45):
on what's coming out of the meetings this week, John,
what's the biggest thing you were watching out for in
the government report this year?
Speaker 1 (02:52):
So the three things we were really keen on finding
out were one, what was the GDP tar you're going
to be for twenty twenty five? The target of about
five percent, which is the same as it was for
twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Now, keeping the country's growth rate level might not sound
like a big deal to an outsider, but the Chinese
economy is facing serious headwinds right now. John says. Just
how serious those headwinds are and how difficult it will
be to reach that goal was reflected in another number
that was released this week, the borrowing threshold.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
They were going to expand the budget deficit for the
central government to about four percent of GDP. That's the
biggest that it's been since nineteen ninety four, since they
had some major changes in how they calculate fiscal deficits,
and so it's really the biggest on record. What that says, though,
is they're going to spend a lot more money to
(03:44):
have the same growth they had in twenty twenty four,
So they're spending a lot more money to basically stay
in place. So that's actually not a very optimistic signal
for the rest of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Consumption. People buying dishwashers are going out to restaurants made
up less than forty five percent of China's GDP growth
last year. That's the lowest since two thousand and six
and excludes the pandemic year of twenty twenty. In most
developed economies, that number would be typically between sixty percent
to eighty percent. Basically, people in China are feeling kind
(04:15):
of broke right now, so they're not spending as much
as fast and this creates a vicious and dangerous cycle.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
People are just not willing to spend, and that has
resulted in companies need to compete more aggressively to get business,
and mostly they've been doing that by cutting prices. And
so if companies are cutting prices, they have less money
that they're bringing in that they can then give to
their workers that they can use to hire more workers,
and that results in households feeling even more uncertain about
(04:43):
the future, and it motivates people to save even more
to spend even less. It's a very vicious and very
dangerous cycle.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
To achieve the five percent growth target, the Chinese government
has a laundry list of issues to overcome. Some are
long term, like the country's aging population, which is putting
pressure on an already strained pension system, but others are
more pressing, like the property market. The real estate market
used to be one of the country's biggest growth drivers,
(05:13):
but it's been in a slump for the last several
years and it remains deep in trouble today. John It
sounds like the real estate crisis has affected almost every
region of China and certainly every level of society. How
are local governments then dealing with that?
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Many local governments around China are very indebted. They've borrowed
a lot of money to build the infrastructure over the
last decade or so, and now as economic growth slows,
they're finding it harder to generate tax revenue from those
infrastructure projects to pay them off, and so as a result,
there's less money to go around. They have to pay
the interest on those borrowings. That means they have less
(05:51):
for new projects, they have less potentially to pay government
workers to provide public services, and so the central government.
The plan has been for the central government to borrow
and then to give that money over to the local
government to pay off the debt. And so basically you're
transferring the debt load from the local level to the
central level and.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Also on the government's list of priorities turning around a
sluggish job market.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
So the job market, I think the pain point that
has been most pronounces with youth unemployment. There was even
a period when they stopped publishing the data for youth
unemployment because it was so high. In the summer of
this year, we are going to get a record number
of new graduates hitting the employment market, and so that's
going to add additional pressure on the government to create jobs.
(06:37):
How they go about doing that, I think it looks
like right now they are putting an emphasis on private enterprise,
and if you look at the data, the vast majority
of jobs, especially in Chinese cities, comes from the private sector,
and so it looks like that the government's main push
there is to try and reduce regulation, to try and
reduce the amount of scrutiny on private enterprises and hopefully
(06:59):
that translates into to a more robust sector and more jobs.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
I mean, the private sector does seem to be something
of a point of light for China's economy. We've certainly
seen some big gains made in the last year, right
particularly in tech. You've got deep seek on the AI front,
You've got tech giant Huawei surprising people with their phones,
and that seems to bode well for domestic consumption, which
is a big target for the Chinese government.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Right So, I think if China, as it has proclaimed
at the NPC that it wants to make boosting domestic
demand the number one priority, if it can do that,
that would actually be very helpful for domestic innovation, I think,
because what you would see is companies here in China
being able to potentially raise prices, having more customers, and
(07:42):
that would in turn results in greater profitability, which means
they have more to invest in R and T.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Now, John, is there anything that's going well in China's economy.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
I think that the stability in the housing market that
we've seen in the last couple of months is very encouraged.
I think that the AI innovations, the breakthroughs that we've
had with deep seek, even with Tenson and Ali Baba
introducing their own large language models, that's helped produced a
(08:13):
lot of confidence. I think when the stock market goes
up as it has because of those innovations, that leads
people to feel more confident about the future, and maybe
they think, you know what, I'll go and have a
nice dinner out, I'll buy a nice bag, I'll splurge
on something. And if enough people do that, it could
(08:33):
start to turn things around.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Another bright spot has been exports. About a third of
China's GDP growth came from net exports last year. And
what could possibly go wrong.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
We've been ripped off for decades by nearly every country
on Earth, and we will not let that happen any longer.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
That's after the break. As premierly wrapped up his work
report in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing,
President Trump, on the other side of the world, was
getting ready to address Congress in Washington, DC. In his
(09:16):
first speech to both chambers since returning to office, Trump
defended the use of tariffs.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
Whatever they tariff US other countries, we will care off them.
Let's recip wi goal back and forth whatever they tax us,
we will tax them.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
John, How do you think Trump's speech to Congress might
have been received by Chinese leaders in Beijing?
Speaker 1 (09:41):
If you talk to policymakers, there is a broad assumption
amongst them that Trump is looking for a deal. That's
reinforced by when President Trump talks about how great a
relationship he has with President husing Ping, and so I
think when Chinese officials here President Trump telling Congress these
things about more tariffs, more taxes, all of this stuff,
(10:05):
I think they take it astride and they're trying to
figure out what they can do to get the best
deal they can and what President Trump wants.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Do you think with these tariffs that we've seen so far,
this trade war could escalate like it did in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I think the officialdom in Beijing expects things to get
more heated. But I think Beijing is balancing that with
the damage that President Trump is causing to America's relationship
with other countries Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Global South, and
I think Beijing's sort of viewing it in a more
(10:42):
holistic sense, in that, yes, all these tariffs on Chinese
goods are going to hit the economy, and that is
going to have a negative impact. But at the same time,
maybe all of these actions by the Trump administration undermining
the American partnerships and relationships that it has with countries
around the world, that creates more space for China to
actually strengthen it's trading relationships, links, it's diplomatic relationships with
(11:07):
all these other countries who have been distanced by the
Trump administration.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Well, that would be a smart approach. Right when door closes,
you try to look for others. Is there a risk
there that US tariffs if they continue, if if they're
piling on, could that dent that five percent growth target?
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I think it certainly could. When those tariffs get high enough,
any advantage will be taken away, and so at a
high enough rate, it will do real damage to Chinese
exporters and that will have a real impact on the economy.
In turn. What rate that is, I think it's hard
to theorize, but I would expect Beijing to be ready
to provide more support as those tariffs go up.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
So, with all that we've talked about, the challenges at
home and beyond, is China's growth target of five percent achievable?
Speaker 1 (11:54):
The five percent target for GDP to me, is a
relatively pessimistic target. It's in combination with the fact that
they've also pledged a record amount of deficit spending and
so China is having to spend more to stay in place.
That to me suggests the government is looking around the world.
(12:14):
It's looking at what the United States is doing, it's
looking at what's happening in Europe, and it's thinking this
year is going to be a tough year, and they're
trying to be realistic about what they can get done.
I think they didn't want to lower the target because
it would have sent I think the wrong signal to
bureaucrats around the country that maybe they didn't have to
(12:36):
work as hard, they didn't have to try as hard.
It would have also sent the wrong message to financial
markets in terms of what to expect, how ambitious, how
much effort the government is going to put into making
the economy better again, reviving growth again. And so it
sort of is an acknowledgement of the challenges, but also
trying to show that the central government is up to
(12:59):
the task of trying to tackle those challenges.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
This is the big take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
wan Ha. This episode was produced by Young Young, Naomi
M and Jessica Beck. It was edited by Patti Hirsh
and Daniel ten Kate. It was fact checked by Naomi
and Young and mixed and sound designed by Alex Duguerra.
Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is
Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is Nicole Beemster Bower. Sage
(13:28):
Bowman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If you liked this episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This week, thousands of Chinese lawmakers are gathering in Beijing
for the annual meeting of the NPC, the National People's Congress.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
The National People's Congress is China's parliament. It reads drafts
and passes laws.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
John lu Is, Bloomberg's senior executive editor for Greater China
based in Beijing.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
The number one thing that happens at the Congresses on
the first day, China's premiere gives what is equivalent to
the State of the Nation Address for China. He comes
out and says how the country is doing, how it
did in the past year, and then he lays out
some very important targets for the coming year.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
I want to report to you on the work of
the government for your deliberation and also for comments. For
twenty twenty five, Beijing set an ambitious GDP growth target
of about five percent, and Premier Lie Cheung declared that
vigorously boosting consumption is the government's top priority. To help
(01:10):
ramp up domestic demand, Beijing plans to expand its public
spending by borrowing at a record level. The government raised
the general budget deficit to around four percent of GDP,
the highest level in more than three decades. But it's
unclear whether that kind of stimulus will be enough to
help the Chinese economy, whether the storm ahead, and then
(01:32):
of course there's the wild card.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
China's economy is in this really awkward position at the moment.
Property is struggling, domestic consumption is weak. The only good
thing about the economy has been exports, and now that's
in real danger because of Donald Trump and because of
the tariffs of the United States is imposing. So going
into the future, the question is what can China do
to overcome all these challenges, And the problem is there
(01:57):
isn't a solid, guaranteed solution.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Welcome to The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanh.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
Beijing plans to get people to spend, spend, and spend,
but how and will Trump's trade war get in the
(02:24):
way of those efforts. On Wednesday, Premier Lee Chiang kicked
off the National People's Congress with China's twenty twenty five
Government work report. It reviewed the health of China's economy
and laid out a policy roadmap for the coming year.
Bloomberg's John Liu and his team have been closely reporting
(02:45):
on what's coming out of the meetings this week, John,
what's the biggest thing you were watching out for in
the government report this year?
Speaker 1 (02:52):
So the three things we were really keen on finding
out were one, what was the GDP tar you're going
to be for twenty twenty five? The target of about
five percent, which is the same as it was for
twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Now, keeping the country's growth rate level might not sound
like a big deal to an outsider, but the Chinese
economy is facing serious headwinds right now. John says. Just
how serious those headwinds are and how difficult it will
be to reach that goal was reflected in another number
that was released this week, the borrowing threshold.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
They were going to expand the budget deficit for the
central government to about four percent of GDP. That's the
biggest that it's been since nineteen ninety four, since they
had some major changes in how they calculate fiscal deficits,
and so it's really the biggest on record. What that says, though,
is they're going to spend a lot more money to
(03:44):
have the same growth they had in twenty twenty four,
So they're spending a lot more money to basically stay
in place. So that's actually not a very optimistic signal
for the rest of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Consumption. People buying dishwashers are going out to restaurants made
up less than forty five percent of China's GDP growth
last year. That's the lowest since two thousand and six
and excludes the pandemic year of twenty twenty. In most
developed economies, that number would be typically between sixty percent
to eighty percent. Basically, people in China are feeling kind
(04:15):
of broke right now, so they're not spending as much
as fast and this creates a vicious and dangerous cycle.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
People are just not willing to spend, and that has
resulted in companies need to compete more aggressively to get business,
and mostly they've been doing that by cutting prices. And
so if companies are cutting prices, they have less money
that they're bringing in that they can then give to
their workers that they can use to hire more workers,
and that results in households feeling even more uncertain about
(04:43):
the future, and it motivates people to save even more
to spend even less. It's a very vicious and very
dangerous cycle.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
To achieve the five percent growth target, the Chinese government
has a laundry list of issues to overcome. Some are
long term, like the country's aging population, which is putting
pressure on an already strained pension system, but others are
more pressing, like the property market. The real estate market
used to be one of the country's biggest growth drivers,
(05:13):
but it's been in a slump for the last several
years and it remains deep in trouble today. John It
sounds like the real estate crisis has affected almost every
region of China and certainly every level of society. How
are local governments then dealing with that?
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Many local governments around China are very indebted. They've borrowed
a lot of money to build the infrastructure over the
last decade or so, and now as economic growth slows,
they're finding it harder to generate tax revenue from those
infrastructure projects to pay them off, and so as a result,
there's less money to go around. They have to pay
the interest on those borrowings. That means they have less
(05:51):
for new projects, they have less potentially to pay government
workers to provide public services, and so the central government.
The plan has been for the central government to borrow
and then to give that money over to the local
government to pay off the debt. And so basically you're
transferring the debt load from the local level to the
central level and.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Also on the government's list of priorities turning around a
sluggish job market.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
So the job market, I think the pain point that
has been most pronounces with youth unemployment. There was even
a period when they stopped publishing the data for youth
unemployment because it was so high. In the summer of
this year, we are going to get a record number
of new graduates hitting the employment market, and so that's
going to add additional pressure on the government to create jobs.
(06:37):
How they go about doing that, I think it looks
like right now they are putting an emphasis on private enterprise,
and if you look at the data, the vast majority
of jobs, especially in Chinese cities, comes from the private sector,
and so it looks like that the government's main push
there is to try and reduce regulation, to try and
reduce the amount of scrutiny on private enterprises and hopefully
(06:59):
that translates into to a more robust sector and more jobs.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
I mean, the private sector does seem to be something
of a point of light for China's economy. We've certainly
seen some big gains made in the last year, right
particularly in tech. You've got deep seek on the AI front,
You've got tech giant Huawei surprising people with their phones,
and that seems to bode well for domestic consumption, which
is a big target for the Chinese government.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Right So, I think if China, as it has proclaimed
at the NPC that it wants to make boosting domestic
demand the number one priority, if it can do that,
that would actually be very helpful for domestic innovation, I think,
because what you would see is companies here in China
being able to potentially raise prices, having more customers, and
(07:42):
that would in turn results in greater profitability, which means
they have more to invest in R and T.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Now, John, is there anything that's going well in China's economy.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
I think that the stability in the housing market that
we've seen in the last couple of months is very encouraged.
I think that the AI innovations, the breakthroughs that we've
had with deep seek, even with Tenson and Ali Baba
introducing their own large language models, that's helped produced a
(08:13):
lot of confidence. I think when the stock market goes
up as it has because of those innovations, that leads
people to feel more confident about the future, and maybe
they think, you know what, I'll go and have a
nice dinner out, I'll buy a nice bag, I'll splurge
on something. And if enough people do that, it could
(08:33):
start to turn things around.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Another bright spot has been exports. About a third of
China's GDP growth came from net exports last year. And
what could possibly go wrong.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
We've been ripped off for decades by nearly every country
on Earth, and we will not let that happen any longer.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
That's after the break. As premierly wrapped up his work
report in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing,
President Trump, on the other side of the world, was
getting ready to address Congress in Washington, DC. In his
(09:16):
first speech to both chambers since returning to office, Trump
defended the use of tariffs.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
Whatever they tariff US other countries, we will care off them.
Let's recip wi goal back and forth whatever they tax us,
we will tax them.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
John, How do you think Trump's speech to Congress might
have been received by Chinese leaders in Beijing?
Speaker 1 (09:41):
If you talk to policymakers, there is a broad assumption
amongst them that Trump is looking for a deal. That's
reinforced by when President Trump talks about how great a
relationship he has with President husing Ping, and so I
think when Chinese officials here President Trump telling Congress these
things about more tariffs, more taxes, all of this stuff,
(10:05):
I think they take it astride and they're trying to
figure out what they can do to get the best
deal they can and what President Trump wants.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Do you think with these tariffs that we've seen so far,
this trade war could escalate like it did in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I think the officialdom in Beijing expects things to get
more heated. But I think Beijing is balancing that with
the damage that President Trump is causing to America's relationship
with other countries Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Global South, and
I think Beijing's sort of viewing it in a more
(10:42):
holistic sense, in that, yes, all these tariffs on Chinese
goods are going to hit the economy, and that is
going to have a negative impact. But at the same time,
maybe all of these actions by the Trump administration undermining
the American partnerships and relationships that it has with countries
around the world, that creates more space for China to
actually strengthen it's trading relationships, links, it's diplomatic relationships with
(11:07):
all these other countries who have been distanced by the
Trump administration.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Well, that would be a smart approach. Right when door closes,
you try to look for others. Is there a risk
there that US tariffs if they continue, if if they're
piling on, could that dent that five percent growth target?
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I think it certainly could. When those tariffs get high enough,
any advantage will be taken away, and so at a
high enough rate, it will do real damage to Chinese
exporters and that will have a real impact on the economy.
In turn. What rate that is, I think it's hard
to theorize, but I would expect Beijing to be ready
to provide more support as those tariffs go up.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
So, with all that we've talked about, the challenges at
home and beyond, is China's growth target of five percent achievable?
Speaker 1 (11:54):
The five percent target for GDP to me, is a
relatively pessimistic target. It's in combination with the fact that
they've also pledged a record amount of deficit spending and
so China is having to spend more to stay in place.
That to me suggests the government is looking around the world.
(12:14):
It's looking at what the United States is doing, it's
looking at what's happening in Europe, and it's thinking this
year is going to be a tough year, and they're
trying to be realistic about what they can get done.
I think they didn't want to lower the target because
it would have sent I think the wrong signal to
bureaucrats around the country that maybe they didn't have to
(12:36):
work as hard, they didn't have to try as hard.
It would have also sent the wrong message to financial
markets in terms of what to expect, how ambitious, how
much effort the government is going to put into making
the economy better again, reviving growth again. And so it
sort of is an acknowledgement of the challenges, but also
trying to show that the central government is up to
(12:59):
the task of trying to tackle those challenges.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
This is the big take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm
wan Ha. This episode was produced by Young Young, Naomi
M and Jessica Beck. It was edited by Patti Hirsh
and Daniel ten Kate. It was fact checked by Naomi
and Young and mixed and sound designed by Alex Duguerra.
Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is
Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is Nicole Beemster Bower. Sage
(13:28):
Bowman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If you liked this episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia
wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find
the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.
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