June 30, 2020 • 33 mins
We get the Businessweek Agenda with Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent Michael McKee and Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg Businessweek Writer Claire Suddath talk about a case of empty frames remaining the art world’s biggest mystery. Dr. Nir Barzilai, Founder of the Institute for Aging Research at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, discusses protecting those most vulnerable to COVID-19. We get the Businessweek Small Business Survival Guide with Bloomberg News Editor Dimitra Kessenides and Abigail Chapin, Owner of Abigail Rose & Lily, Too. They walk through reopening in NYC. And we Drive to the Close with Hilary Kramer, President and CIO at A&G Capital.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the
latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,
all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,
and of course Carol that's part of a team of
twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred
and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business
(00:23):
Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, old Bloomberg dot com. You can
also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern
on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube
by searching Bloomberg Global News. Let's get into some analysis
of what we heard, Carol, because we've got the team assembled.
They've been waiting patiently, uh to walk us through this.
(00:44):
It was an interesting hearing and listen. These are the
guys who are on the front lines. Paula Manucha, Well,
I feel like over the last sixteen weeks fifteen sixteen weeks,
these are the two individuals that have really been at
the forefront when it comes to programs to take care
of businesses large and small, all as well as individuals
in the US economy. So let's get into it. Joining
(01:04):
us right now is, of course, our Michael McKey, Bloomberg
News International Economics and Policy correspondent Mike McKee joining us
from our studios in New York. Also Jeffrey Cleveland, chief
economist at Payton and Regal. He's on the phone from
Los Angeles, and Mike, let me start with you. Anything
that really jumps out. I know we've been hearing, certainly
from J. Powell a lot over the last few weeks,
but anything in particular that stood out for you. Nothing,
(01:27):
a lot of market moving. I was a little surprised
that there wasn't more criticism of some of the mistakes
that were made during the funding of various programs. UH.
The Government Accountability Office last week with rather scathing report
about that. If anything, it might have been the idea
um the J. Powell suggested they might be willing to
(01:49):
lower the threshold for main street loans. There doesn't seem
to be a lot of interest in that at the moment,
he said. Three D banks have signed up, but they're
not getting a lot of company interested in that. And
there was some concern that it was going to be
a little too late. Also, Steve Manuchan said that they
were willing to consider some sort of program for commercial
(02:10):
mortgage back to securities. Uh so if if they do
those two things that expands the lending programs, maybe they
get more money out Pole of course declining to get
involved in saying what kind of stimulus they should do,
but both men making the case they probably do need
to do more stimulus. So Jeffrey Cleveland, come on in here,
chief economists for Pitton and Regal out in Los Angeles. Uh,
(02:34):
what does the Fed and what does the Treasury need
to be doing at this moment, especially as listen you
are at unfortunately what many are considering the new epicenter
of this in in Los Angeles, with this outbreak or
this surge or resurgence, depending on your perspective, that we're
hearing what needs to be done from a fiscal and
monetary perspective. Yeah, Jason, I thought the best exchange was
(02:58):
between David Scott Georgia and uh the Secretary Treasury in
the in the FED chair, And you know, he really
highlighted something that clients are asking me, you know every day,
are you know what's been done? Is it helping main
Street or is it helping Wall Street? And I think
Powell answered that very well. He said, what they're doing
will help the main street, it will help the economy
(03:20):
by keeping the markets open, you know, by keeping access
to capital available, by keeping financial conditions easy. That should
help main Street help the economy as as things reopen.
So I thought that that was a good exchange, but
I think it highlights the problem that most people have
right now. We have twenty five million unemployed, yet we're
(03:43):
recording the best quarter for the stock market since and
so you know, meeting that is difficult. I think you know,
if you've watched that whole hearing, you it's the infrastructure, right,
how do you get capital to where it is needed
most in a timely fashion? There there is no see
way to do that, as the Treasury Secretary said, they're
using the banking system. So the main street lending facility
(04:06):
is uh, you know, the obvious candidate. But it's taken
a while to get that ramped up. And as of
the FENS balance as of Wednesday, there was about thirty
seven billion there, so not a huge uptake. So that's
that's a difficult process. But keeping financial conditions easy, is
a short answer to your question. Yeah, and they certainly
have been doing a great job at that. Mike McKie,
it's an interesting week. It's a holiday week, but there's
(04:27):
a job you know, there's tons of economic news culminating
in that Thursday jobs report, and of course we'll get
fed minutes tomorrow. So I don't know what, if anything,
is really of utmost importance in your in your view,
you know, it would have probably been the job's report,
because we had a good jobs report last month and
then everybody got excited that maybe we were getting uh
(04:48):
to the rebound a little bit quicker. And j Pal
said today he thought we had gotten to the rebound
a little bit quicker than they had anticipated. But now
with this all these emerging hotspots, you've gotta wonder, as
governors moved to shut various industries down, they're not doing
a wholesale shutdown, but as bars close again, Um, you
wonder all the people who are on the June pay
(05:08):
rolls report, which we get on Thursday, how many of
them will be on the July payrolls report. So this
is just gonna move everybody's interest forward a month to
see and because this has come back so strong in
different places. It kind of makes all the data seem outdated.
At this point, everything we're gonna get this week isn't
(05:28):
really going to tell us necessarily where we are because
most of it's old, and it doesn't really tell us
where we're going because we don't know how long it's
gonna last. And so, Jeffrey Cleveland, what is the one
either data point that we'll get this week or looking
ahead that you're most interested in seeing and analyzing. We've
been highlighting continuing claims out on Thursday. You're being being
(05:51):
the thing to watch every week. It's more timely than
the Job's reports. I hate to dismiss the Job's report.
It's always been my favorite economic data player. I feel
bad doing that, but yeah, the continuing claims date I
think is key. UM hit more in a real time since.
But you know there's great uncertainty. I think you know
there's been some good work here. It's not just the
shutdowns that are being put in place. You mentioned Los Angeles. Uh,
(06:15):
we're being told we can't go to the beach on
the fourth of July. But it's really the fear of
the virus that did the economic damage there's a good
working paper out today from from University of Chicago highlighting this.
You had a big drop off in consumer activity, but
only about seven percent of that has accounted for by
the quote unquote legal restrictions. Most of it is just
people staying home because they're afraid. So the question is,
(06:37):
as we see the virus count take up yesterday, l
A County recorded the highest daily increase so far. You know,
does that cause people to shut down again and then
do we have a second round of economic effects. It's
a really good question. Yeah, I agree with you, Michael McKee.
Just to wrap up, so what is it? Is it
a V shape? Is it a U shape? Is it
an upside down Nike swush? Have we decided what the
(06:58):
recovery looks like? We haven't really decided. Um. The working
assumption to most people was a sort of a square
root sign where are you you? You had a quick
V and then just a flat But now we don't know.
We could be heading into a W situation. I think
the takeaway from today is the same as it's always been.
The viruses in charge. Yeah, well, stay tuned to everyone
(07:19):
and we'll figure out what that symbol will ultimately be
right when it comes to this recovery. Yeah, and who knows.
It feels like we have a different answer every day.
That's the world we're living in, all right, gentlemen, Thank
you so much. Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economists for Payton and Regal,
joining us on the phone from Los Angeles. And are
in Michael McKee, international economics and policy correspondent for Bloomberg.
There in our Bloomberg Interactor Brooker Studio. This is Bloomberg
(07:41):
Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.
Hard pivot here, no segway here from Capitol Hill. Uh,
to the heist issue, which is one of our favorite
things every year. We're gonna be talking about it over
the next couple of days. But we have to diget
into a story that did phenomenally well on the Bloomberg yesterday.
(08:05):
Claire Saidith wrote it. She is a writer for Bloomberg
Business Week. Of course, durants on the phone from Brooklyn.
The case of the empty Frames remains art world's biggest mystery.
If that doesn't draw you in, I don't know what does, Claire.
It's so phenomenal. Tell us what's going on this is
the hest of all heyst in some ways, Yeah, it is.
(08:26):
And it's also so it's um it's thirty years old.
In St. Patrick's day, Um, two men dressed up as
Boston police officers and stole um what has been estimated
to be about half a billion dollars in artwork, and
it has never been solved. So it's the largest art y.
Also makes it the most famous art hysmin history. It's
(08:49):
been the subject of books and podcasts. Um, there's this
whole Simpsons episode, or Mr Burne goes to prison because
it turns out he stole the painting. It's it's same us.
And I don't want to say that I know the
answer to it, because what makes it so famous is
the fact that it's never been solved. And there's this
whole cottage industry of FBI agents and private detectives and
(09:12):
armchair sluice who have been trying and failing so far
to come up with um an answer. And it's funny
because they all have wildly different theories and they all
disagree with each other. I mean, it's really it just
reads you know, as you said, you know, we often, Jason,
I talked about Claire. You know, things that could be
(09:33):
adapted as a series. I mean it just so reads
like a George Clooney movie or something, right, yeah, exactly,
and each episode would be one of the different theories
I guess you could do. Um. Yeah, it's UM, it's interesting.
You know. The FBI, it technically has been working on
this for a really long time, and they've had different
agents in charge at different points in the three decades.
(09:54):
For a while they thought it was in France, there
was the sting in Miami. Um really early on they
went to Japan that turned out to definitely not be true. UM.
And now their current theory is that, um, they think
the paintings were stolen by some sort of um cabal
of in Boston's organized crime and UM, they've tracked it
(10:17):
up to a certain point in the early two thousand's
and then they sort of just UM, I don't know
what happened after that. What was the security? I mean,
this is an army museum, right there was there Well,
I will say this is while it had an extensive
art collection, it's it's a small museum. It's private. Um.
And in the nineties UM, and also the case in
(10:41):
many museums, especially back then they didn't really have a
lot of security, so they had motion detectors and they
had a few security cameras, but not in the galleries.
And actually the overnight shift, um, which is this happened
at night. There are two guys in their mid twenties
who had no real security training whatsoever. Um. One of
(11:01):
them was a music school student and he liked to
play his trombone at night, and the other one, UM
played in a rock band. And in other interviews he
had said he, you know, sometimes may not have come
to work totally sober, just because you know, he's working
the night shift at a small museum, so why not. Um,
(11:21):
But that didn't work out so well for them that
one night. Yeah. Well, I love all the twists and turns,
and you know, as you read through the story, you've
got all these sort of theories popping up, and you know,
you have it's like, oh, it took place on St.
Patrick's Day and what does that mean? And then a
couple of the robbers refer to each other as mate,
so they're clearly not American. I mean, all these different
things in Whitey Bulger, of course, the famous criminal makes
(11:42):
it came out. I mean it's really it's religious. It's
really just it's so good. Alright, alright, Clara saida thank
you so much. Congrats on the story, one of the
most read. It is a feature story in the Heist issue,
an annual uh sort of romp that This is weeked.
This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason
(12:04):
Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Just bring up just being on
some of the things that are going on, you know,
looking at the most read stories. Anthony Fauci at the
top of the leaderboard here in terms of what he
is saying, around as many as a hundred thousand new
cases per day, if there's no change in terms of
(12:24):
how we as people and governments and and everyone else
are fighting the virus right on a day when global
deaths succeed five hundred thousand in cases top ten millions,
so crucial as we know to containing our slowing the
spread of the virus. Jason, it's it's about protecting the
most vulnerable, which we no means of course, our older population.
So let's get into it because we know our next
(12:46):
guest has some thoughts on it. Dr Near Barzilai. He
is the director of the Institute for Aging Research at
the Albert Einstein College of Medicine. He's also director of
the Paul left Glen Center for the Biology of Human
Aging Research and of the National Institutes of Health Centers
of Excellence in the Basic Biology of Aging. So when
it comes to aging, this is the guy who's joining
(13:06):
us on the phone in Westchester, New York. Dr bars Ali,
are nice to have you here on Bloomberg Radio. Um
talk to us about the importance of understanding the most
vulnerable populations, including those who are elderly, in terms of
really getting a handle on this virus. Alright, so not
nice being with you. And I want to start with
(13:26):
a misconception, and that is that there's nothing you can
do about aging. I think we're confusing by the fact
that we all end up dying. But that's not the
same as we cannot do anything about aging. In fact,
aging has the biology. You know, you can see, you
can see who's old and who's young. But the more
(13:48):
important thing is this biology can be targeted. And we
and when I'm saying we, gero science is gero science
is kind of a and you the study of all
these new but we've made huge progress. We went to
from hope to promise, and we know that aging can
(14:09):
be targeted by different ways. And I think the COVID
nineteen just underline how vulnerable are the elderly, but also
maybe gave hope that we can actually intervene and defend
the elderly host And so what have we learned, Dr
(14:31):
Barzilai about you know what we can do? You know,
taking into account everything that you just said when it
comes to COVID nineteen, how should we be thinking, especially about,
as Carol said, this more vulnerable population and given given
a lot of scary things that that we're seeing out there,
(14:53):
So you know, I would I would mention as briefly
as I can two things that are interaction with with
the environment. That is exercise and nutrition. Right, those are
things that we know that is going to affect agent.
It's kind of tough, but it's not really tough for
(15:14):
people who haven't walked before to start walking, or two
people to exercise regularly in the and do it safely.
With the nutrition. I have a specific suggestion that will
affect more people than many other diets that I can
tell you, and this is to start doing intermittent fasting,
(15:37):
which really means just keepping breakfast. We call it sixteen eight.
You could do fifty nine if you want, but you know,
sixteen eight is if you finish dinner at eight, don't
eat anything until twelve the next day. That's sixteen hours
and you can do it because even if you're hungry,
there's only two hours to go and then you can
(16:00):
whatever you want. And with this diet you lose weight also,
but more important, this is something that upregulate your defense.
That's important for aging. Can I ask you, but Dr Barsla,
I want to ask you something. A lot of elderly
folks have something like diabetes where they have to be
(16:20):
very careful about, you know, when they eat and how
they eat in terms of maintaining their levels. So how
does someone like that, we're losing weight can improve their health,
but yet they're stuck on something like that. Yeah, well,
I'm actually a diabetology so and and and so. Look,
one of the things that we want people to do
(16:42):
is lose weight are diabetics, and unfortunately only three percent
of them will do this. Okay, So the advice and
the method is good when it comes to treatment, you know,
and I don't want to spend too much time of it,
but it's very adjustable. You know, if you're an insulin
and you're fasting, then the instutin you should get with
(17:02):
the meals and not with the fath basically, so there's
a way to do it. But I'm not talking about
diabetic people now. I'm just talking about if you're you know,
if you if you're now want to avoid COVID, exercise
and nutrition or weight loss or or maybe intermittent fasting
(17:22):
is the way that you can. It does few things.
It increased your immunity, it decreased your inflammation, and it's
increased the ability of your body to sustain a very
severe disease. Okay, so those all are are good advice
if you can do it. But I really wanted to
talk about other things. You know, for us, aging has
(17:47):
eight hallmarks that we agree upon, and the hallmarks are
really knobs that we can target with drugs that could
have a major effect on aging. And I want to
take talk about one of those drugs because this drug
is readily, readily available and very cheap. Unfortunately, you have
(18:09):
to tell us about it in thirty seconds because we're
going to write at a time. Dr Barsla I said,
just okay. It's it's called mitforming. It's a drug that's
given to diabetic patients and from studies with COVID nineteen,
we know that people on mitforming have four times less
mortality and their hospitalized less. So what I'm saying, there
(18:32):
are other options where we have to defend the host
besides fighting the virus. Al Right, well we will, uh
come Yeah, You'll have to come back and spend more
time with this because I feel like you are working
in a number of areas that are certainly very interesting
to us, in very critical to everything that's going on
in the world. Dr near bars Lai is the founder
(18:54):
of the Institute for Aging Research at the Albert Einstein
College Medicine, among many other things. Uh glad to have
him with us. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio Now. In this
week's edition of Business Week Small Business Survival Guide, we
continue to look at how small businesses are reopening in
a week, where as Jason I just talked about some
(19:14):
states you know, are being very cautious or rolling back plans.
Joining us once again, as Bloomberg News editor Dimitri Cassa Needy.
She's on the phone in New York City joining us.
Also is Abigail Shape and she's owner of Abigail Rose
and Lily Too. It's a woman and children's clothing store
that's located in Piermont, New York. She joins us on
(19:35):
the phone from Piermont. Nice to have you both with
with us, dimitra Um. We want to get into abigail story.
But you guys continue to take a look at what's
going on in small businesses. What's the overlying trend here?
Do you feel like they're finding it easier or is
it continuing to be pretty difficult. I think I would
say I think there are still challenges. It's not you know,
(19:56):
it's not something where there was a solution um away
forward and you can just stick with that and not
have to adjust. I think it's a constant. My sense
from many business owners, not just Abigail who will be
talking to in a minute, is that there's a constant reassessment. Um,
we're not seeing you know the problems that are happening
in some other states right now, and yet that does
(20:19):
you know, it would be smart for everybody to kind
of look at those things pay attention to them, give
them pause and think about what the plans are going
to be. If at any given moment you again have
to reassess and move in another direction because of how
things are going. And so Abigail, help us understand what
it does look like from your perspective. And I have
(20:40):
to say, I'm sort of virtually waving to you. I'm
just across the just across the Mario Cuomo Memorial Bridge
otherwise known as the Tapancy Bridge formally and Sleepy Hollow.
So what are you think over there in Pyrmont. Um. Well,
we are seeing that people I think as people are
(21:00):
not going on vacation, maybe as much not traveling. So
people from the Chi state area are coming to Piermont
a lot um on the weekends or as a day visitor. UM.
But a lot of the stores and UM ourselves included,
are taking it slow to reopen. Um. We are at
a village with a lot of restaurants, a lot of
really great restaurants, and the restaurants are open with outdoor seating. UM.
(21:25):
But UM, so that that's keeping our town really active
and people are coming to visit for that. UM. But yeah,
we have a few stores in town that haven't opened
at all, and we are kind of in an in
between phase ourselves. How hard has it been, Abigail, Well, UM,
we're really lucky. We've been UM the store with my
(21:46):
mom's she started it's named for me and my sister,
UM and she started at night, and UM it's been
in Piermont this whole time. UM. We've been through some
major disasters like Hurricane Sandy and other disasters that hit
Piermont really hard. UM this is obviously a worldwide UH disaster.
But UM, our loyal clientele has really stuck with us
(22:08):
and they've been UH. We've we shifted everything online and
UM and took herbside and originally in March we were
doing sort of local delivery and that was keeping us UM,
keeping us afloat, and people were super supportive, and our
loyal clientele, I think, really wanted to support businesses that
were important to them. So UM, we're really extremely lucky
(22:32):
for that. UM. But it has been definitely challenging. There's
so much pivoting that is taking place all the time,
like reassessing what's important to us. We're also UM sheltering
and us sort of pollowed with our parents who are
in their seventies, and my sister and I both have
four year old daughters, so we've got little ones and
older people to think about. UM, So we don't feel
(22:55):
comfortable just letting the world in our door. UM when
as the meat who was saying, there's you know, the
virus is still kind of on the loose. Yeah. I
mean that's such an interesting point too, because you know,
you have to think about yourselves and and your employees
as well, because you know everybody is you know, either
going home to or you know, even with social distancing
(23:16):
and all that, you know, interacting with people who who
could be vulnerable. And I would imagine that that weighs
heavily on you. It definitely does. And UM, even though
so in the Lower Hudson Valley region we're in now,
I'm going to be confused by which phase we're in.
I guess we're in the phase where we can be
really fully open with a lot of restrictions on how
many people can come in. UM, but we are UM,
(23:40):
we're taking and we're having We're trying to keep one
customer and at a time where if two customers come in,
then one of us leaves spaces physically very small, and
there's not, um, a lot of ventilation. We just have
a door. We don't have me you know, we have
the shop windows, but no like airfow windows, and it
just doesn't feel like the kind of space that you want. Yeah,
(24:03):
I mean for social distancing. Yeah, it's tricky. Um. Demitro
just got about thirty seconds left here. I mean, as
you guys continue to cover this, Um, what are you
looking to do? Well? I mean, I think we're looking
at more stories of just how people are approaching this because,
as we've heard with other interviews, no guidance really right.
Nobody gives you a roadmap to reopening, and everybody is different. Um,
(24:27):
And I think it's interesting and helpful and useful to
hear about the ways that stores are making these decisions.
You'll read more about Abigail and Lily's decisions about their
story later in the week when we do a fuller story.
But we're looking to track that and just see how
it's going and to stand on top of it over
the long run, Um, when bigger decisions are going to
be confronted that might be much more fundamentally challenging decisions
(24:51):
about the longevity of the business, you know, because I
do think now this reality is setting up on us
that it's going to be very hard to make our
way through this to a point where we're really back
and living the way we were living four months ago,
five months ago. Yeah for sure. Yeah, all right, Well,
thank you both so much. To meet your Cassanin's editor
(25:12):
for Bloomberg joining us on the phone. And Abigail Chapin
it is time for the drive too close, one of
our favorites, friend of the show. I know, I love
when she comes and hangs out with us in the studio,
but we are in a distant world right now, but
happy to have with us. Hillary Kramer, President ce IO
at A and G Capital. Hillary, how the heck are you?
(25:34):
I am doing very very well. Thank you, Jason good.
So what's the what's your world like at this moment
in terms of you know, just like talking to clients
looking at the market like it's obviously an upside down,
topsy turvy world. But you know, you've seen crises, you've
seen cycles generally, what do you make of this one?
(25:55):
The market has hoped for tomorrow and until something breaks it.
So there's a break in it. The market is going
to keep. It'll just keep going higher, and investors are
still being forced to go into the stock market, and
the Federal Reserve is making it phenomenally easy. You know,
it's easy money, easy money. And uh, I was just
(26:19):
looking a triple B bond. Okay, basically do almost junk
is two point seven percent? Well, people are willing to
buy it because the ten years giving them point six percent.
So corporations are able to, you know, continue to issue
the debt out there and it keeps getting bought. But
(26:40):
in terms of Jason your specific question, because I know
what has to do with you know, where are we
finding what niche are we finding opportunities? We're finding plenty
of opportunities, especially in these small caps like we just, um,
we just put a buy on Sally. Sally Beauty as
h small cap did two dollars and twenty six cents
US years dollars this year, and it's it's a great
(27:04):
undervalued company. But everybody thinks that COVID nineteen is going
to hit it a lot worse. The other one that
I believe I have spoken about before is valvolen v
z Z. Yeah, Valvoine nine dollars stop. There's two point
three four percent of diving in yield. We love it.
We think you could go to twenty four to twenty five.
(27:24):
I mean it's right now nineteen and a half dollars,
so it's it's not like some double out there. But
I'll take two point three percent. And people aren't buying
new cars. Okay, so they're not buying new cars. Wait, wait, wait,
I have to get in Wait, I don't agree with you.
I'm out all the roads, Hillary, and I feel like
everyone is out there. I see all these new cars
(27:46):
with you know, you can tell they have the license plates,
the tempts, the temporary plates, um. And I just feel
like a lot of people because maybe they're not going
to get on a plane, maybe they're more inclined to
get in the car and go for a ride and
they feel safe in their cars. Well they're they're in
their cars and they're gonna need uh an oil change,
that's for sure, because they're going long distances. They're gonna
(28:08):
need new wipers and and that's exactly what Volvoline does.
You can do it yourself, or you can go into
you know, one of their quick group shops. But in
terms of actual cars, look, Mercedes is doing zero percent
financing that the car companies are really struggling out there.
Take a look at a range Rover a lot and
(28:28):
they're like practically doubled up one on top of the other.
Now there could be other cars. I also have a Subaru.
Subaru is great, but you know, if I can tell you,
Subaru is backed up in the service center. And that's
because people, from what I'm seeing, aren't buying new cars now.
Every year, you know, we have an average of how
many new cars are being bought at twelve million, eighteen
(28:50):
million and uh and we have yet to see actually
what happens. But in the next six months to come,
I believe we're gonna see a lot to try traveling,
you know, that's for sure, Caroline. But at the same time,
we're going to see people changing oil themselves, and there's
that pent up demand for it because they've been home
for three months. So we've been talking a lot about tech,
(29:14):
Hillary and tech. Big tech especially has had a nice run.
But I have to think that feels a little bit
over bought at this point, knowing you a little bit
like that feels like someplace that you might not be
going as the things right well, It's actually interesting, Jason,
what a great point because with my team we were
(29:35):
just talking about Facebook. I said, why is I want
everyone to say, why is Facebook not down more? Having
lost all of these advertisers. And of course it's what
percentage is you know dub soap and what new know
Leaver and what percentage is Verizon? But you know, the
markets betting it over the long term, these advertisers are
going to come back, you know, they just are. And
(29:57):
big Tech the markets ignoring valuation, and you know they
really are ignoring them. You know that being said, will
be interesting to see if Apple can get up there
and hit new highs. Uh. You know it's high with
three dollars this year, it's at three six. Let's see
what happens with with Apple. That's the one I'm kind
(30:18):
of keeping my eye on. To me, that's just such
an important indicator because we really where the consumer is at,
because right, I mean, consumers can either keep the one
they have or they can buy a new one if
they feel like they have money in their pockets, if
they feel confident. So that's where the Apple is just
(30:39):
a great proxy for understanding where the market stands. But
in terms of tech, look, I'm very excited because ets
hit fifty two weeks new high today, eBay hit in
fifty two week high Shopify and you know what the
best one of all I know you'll love this group
Match Drew No. Okay, that's actually come to our attention
(31:00):
at recently. It's up fifty seven percent here. It's a
hundred and five dollar stock. They have Okay Cupid, they
have lots of swiping that you can do. But the
bottom line is, I think people really fundamentally got lonely
and realized how important family and relationships are when they
were quarantined at home. And uh, I just think Match
(31:22):
probably has potential to continue going up from here. Especially
people aren't going to be going into bars, you know,
so even the people who are, I guess gonna be
swiping more than looking for their long term love that
we're also on Match, so uh, I would say that's
one to really watch. So Jason Tech, look for those texts,
(31:43):
uh that that are very related there. And I'm not
going to get into Chewi because now I think Chewy
the online well you could do that one for me
because I hillary, I love I love dogs. You can
do that. You got about twenty seconds. Okay, chew chewy
dot COM's d h W. Why everyone else? I started
with Chewy ay three dollars, saying by it, by it,
(32:05):
by it, And I think Chewy has upside potential. From here,
Amazon would be foolish not to step in and buy
Chewy dot Com or maybe even some big retailer. So
Chewy is is more popular than ever before. And and Carol,
what do you have? You have Afghans? What kind of dogs?
I have an Irish terrier Scout? Okay, I guess if
(32:29):
you follow um maybe most summer. I don't know if
it's going to be the case this summer, but most
of August Carol's Twitter feed is just filled with pictures
of Scout on a boat. So family doesn't let me
take pictures of them, so I've decided the Scout can't argue.
All right, Hillary Kerber, always good to catch up with you,
really nice to hear your voice. Be well, look forward
(32:51):
to seeing you on the other side of all this.
Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download
the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud, Blueberg dot com, or wherever
you get your podcast, And of course you can always
listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on
Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg
Global News
This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the
latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,
all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,
and of course Carol that's part of a team of
twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred
and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business
(00:23):
Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, old Bloomberg dot com. You can
also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern
on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube
by searching Bloomberg Global News. Let's get into some analysis
of what we heard, Carol, because we've got the team assembled.
They've been waiting patiently, uh to walk us through this.
(00:44):
It was an interesting hearing and listen. These are the
guys who are on the front lines. Paula Manucha, Well,
I feel like over the last sixteen weeks fifteen sixteen weeks,
these are the two individuals that have really been at
the forefront when it comes to programs to take care
of businesses large and small, all as well as individuals
in the US economy. So let's get into it. Joining
(01:04):
us right now is, of course, our Michael McKey, Bloomberg
News International Economics and Policy correspondent Mike McKee joining us
from our studios in New York. Also Jeffrey Cleveland, chief
economist at Payton and Regal. He's on the phone from
Los Angeles, and Mike, let me start with you. Anything
that really jumps out. I know we've been hearing, certainly
from J. Powell a lot over the last few weeks,
but anything in particular that stood out for you. Nothing,
(01:27):
a lot of market moving. I was a little surprised
that there wasn't more criticism of some of the mistakes
that were made during the funding of various programs. UH.
The Government Accountability Office last week with rather scathing report
about that. If anything, it might have been the idea
um the J. Powell suggested they might be willing to
(01:49):
lower the threshold for main street loans. There doesn't seem
to be a lot of interest in that at the moment,
he said. Three D banks have signed up, but they're
not getting a lot of company interested in that. And
there was some concern that it was going to be
a little too late. Also, Steve Manuchan said that they
were willing to consider some sort of program for commercial
(02:10):
mortgage back to securities. Uh so if if they do
those two things that expands the lending programs, maybe they
get more money out Pole of course declining to get
involved in saying what kind of stimulus they should do,
but both men making the case they probably do need
to do more stimulus. So Jeffrey Cleveland, come on in here,
chief economists for Pitton and Regal out in Los Angeles. Uh,
(02:34):
what does the Fed and what does the Treasury need
to be doing at this moment, especially as listen you
are at unfortunately what many are considering the new epicenter
of this in in Los Angeles, with this outbreak or
this surge or resurgence, depending on your perspective, that we're
hearing what needs to be done from a fiscal and
monetary perspective. Yeah, Jason, I thought the best exchange was
(02:58):
between David Scott Georgia and uh the Secretary Treasury in
the in the FED chair, And you know, he really
highlighted something that clients are asking me, you know every day,
are you know what's been done? Is it helping main
Street or is it helping Wall Street? And I think
Powell answered that very well. He said, what they're doing
will help the main street, it will help the economy
(03:20):
by keeping the markets open, you know, by keeping access
to capital available, by keeping financial conditions easy. That should
help main Street help the economy as as things reopen.
So I thought that that was a good exchange, but
I think it highlights the problem that most people have
right now. We have twenty five million unemployed, yet we're
(03:43):
recording the best quarter for the stock market since and
so you know, meeting that is difficult. I think you know,
if you've watched that whole hearing, you it's the infrastructure, right,
how do you get capital to where it is needed
most in a timely fashion? There there is no see
way to do that, as the Treasury Secretary said, they're
using the banking system. So the main street lending facility
(04:06):
is uh, you know, the obvious candidate. But it's taken
a while to get that ramped up. And as of
the FENS balance as of Wednesday, there was about thirty
seven billion there, so not a huge uptake. So that's
that's a difficult process. But keeping financial conditions easy, is
a short answer to your question. Yeah, and they certainly
have been doing a great job at that. Mike McKie,
it's an interesting week. It's a holiday week, but there's
(04:27):
a job you know, there's tons of economic news culminating
in that Thursday jobs report, and of course we'll get
fed minutes tomorrow. So I don't know what, if anything,
is really of utmost importance in your in your view,
you know, it would have probably been the job's report,
because we had a good jobs report last month and
then everybody got excited that maybe we were getting uh
(04:48):
to the rebound a little bit quicker. And j Pal
said today he thought we had gotten to the rebound
a little bit quicker than they had anticipated. But now
with this all these emerging hotspots, you've gotta wonder, as
governors moved to shut various industries down, they're not doing
a wholesale shutdown, but as bars close again, Um, you
wonder all the people who are on the June pay
(05:08):
rolls report, which we get on Thursday, how many of
them will be on the July payrolls report. So this
is just gonna move everybody's interest forward a month to
see and because this has come back so strong in
different places. It kind of makes all the data seem outdated.
At this point, everything we're gonna get this week isn't
(05:28):
really going to tell us necessarily where we are because
most of it's old, and it doesn't really tell us
where we're going because we don't know how long it's
gonna last. And so, Jeffrey Cleveland, what is the one
either data point that we'll get this week or looking
ahead that you're most interested in seeing and analyzing. We've
been highlighting continuing claims out on Thursday. You're being being
(05:51):
the thing to watch every week. It's more timely than
the Job's reports. I hate to dismiss the Job's report.
It's always been my favorite economic data player. I feel
bad doing that, but yeah, the continuing claims date I
think is key. UM hit more in a real time since.
But you know there's great uncertainty. I think you know
there's been some good work here. It's not just the
shutdowns that are being put in place. You mentioned Los Angeles. Uh,
(06:15):
we're being told we can't go to the beach on
the fourth of July. But it's really the fear of
the virus that did the economic damage there's a good
working paper out today from from University of Chicago highlighting this.
You had a big drop off in consumer activity, but
only about seven percent of that has accounted for by
the quote unquote legal restrictions. Most of it is just
people staying home because they're afraid. So the question is,
(06:37):
as we see the virus count take up yesterday, l
A County recorded the highest daily increase so far. You know,
does that cause people to shut down again and then
do we have a second round of economic effects. It's
a really good question. Yeah, I agree with you, Michael McKee.
Just to wrap up, so what is it? Is it
a V shape? Is it a U shape? Is it
an upside down Nike swush? Have we decided what the
(06:58):
recovery looks like? We haven't really decided. Um. The working
assumption to most people was a sort of a square
root sign where are you you? You had a quick
V and then just a flat But now we don't know.
We could be heading into a W situation. I think
the takeaway from today is the same as it's always been.
The viruses in charge. Yeah, well, stay tuned to everyone
(07:19):
and we'll figure out what that symbol will ultimately be
right when it comes to this recovery. Yeah, and who knows.
It feels like we have a different answer every day.
That's the world we're living in, all right, gentlemen, Thank
you so much. Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economists for Payton and Regal,
joining us on the phone from Los Angeles. And are
in Michael McKee, international economics and policy correspondent for Bloomberg.
There in our Bloomberg Interactor Brooker Studio. This is Bloomberg
(07:41):
Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.
Hard pivot here, no segway here from Capitol Hill. Uh,
to the heist issue, which is one of our favorite
things every year. We're gonna be talking about it over
the next couple of days. But we have to diget
into a story that did phenomenally well on the Bloomberg yesterday.
(08:05):
Claire Saidith wrote it. She is a writer for Bloomberg
Business Week. Of course, durants on the phone from Brooklyn.
The case of the empty Frames remains art world's biggest mystery.
If that doesn't draw you in, I don't know what does, Claire.
It's so phenomenal. Tell us what's going on this is
the hest of all heyst in some ways, Yeah, it is.
(08:26):
And it's also so it's um it's thirty years old.
In St. Patrick's day, Um, two men dressed up as
Boston police officers and stole um what has been estimated
to be about half a billion dollars in artwork, and
it has never been solved. So it's the largest art y.
Also makes it the most famous art hysmin history. It's
(08:49):
been the subject of books and podcasts. Um, there's this
whole Simpsons episode, or Mr Burne goes to prison because
it turns out he stole the painting. It's it's same us.
And I don't want to say that I know the
answer to it, because what makes it so famous is
the fact that it's never been solved. And there's this
whole cottage industry of FBI agents and private detectives and
(09:12):
armchair sluice who have been trying and failing so far
to come up with um an answer. And it's funny
because they all have wildly different theories and they all
disagree with each other. I mean, it's really it just
reads you know, as you said, you know, we often, Jason,
I talked about Claire. You know, things that could be
(09:33):
adapted as a series. I mean it just so reads
like a George Clooney movie or something, right, yeah, exactly,
and each episode would be one of the different theories
I guess you could do. Um. Yeah, it's UM, it's interesting.
You know. The FBI, it technically has been working on
this for a really long time, and they've had different
agents in charge at different points in the three decades.
(09:54):
For a while they thought it was in France, there
was the sting in Miami. Um really early on they
went to Japan that turned out to definitely not be true. UM.
And now their current theory is that, um, they think
the paintings were stolen by some sort of um cabal
of in Boston's organized crime and UM, they've tracked it
(10:17):
up to a certain point in the early two thousand's
and then they sort of just UM, I don't know
what happened after that. What was the security? I mean,
this is an army museum, right there was there Well,
I will say this is while it had an extensive
art collection, it's it's a small museum. It's private. Um.
And in the nineties UM, and also the case in
(10:41):
many museums, especially back then they didn't really have a
lot of security, so they had motion detectors and they
had a few security cameras, but not in the galleries.
And actually the overnight shift, um, which is this happened
at night. There are two guys in their mid twenties
who had no real security training whatsoever. Um. One of
(11:01):
them was a music school student and he liked to
play his trombone at night, and the other one, UM
played in a rock band. And in other interviews he
had said he, you know, sometimes may not have come
to work totally sober, just because you know, he's working
the night shift at a small museum, so why not. Um,
(11:21):
But that didn't work out so well for them that
one night. Yeah. Well, I love all the twists and turns,
and you know, as you read through the story, you've
got all these sort of theories popping up, and you know,
you have it's like, oh, it took place on St.
Patrick's Day and what does that mean? And then a
couple of the robbers refer to each other as mate,
so they're clearly not American. I mean, all these different
things in Whitey Bulger, of course, the famous criminal makes
(11:42):
it came out. I mean it's really it's religious. It's
really just it's so good. Alright, alright, Clara saida thank
you so much. Congrats on the story, one of the
most read. It is a feature story in the Heist issue,
an annual uh sort of romp that This is weeked.
This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason
(12:04):
Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Just bring up just being on
some of the things that are going on, you know,
looking at the most read stories. Anthony Fauci at the
top of the leaderboard here in terms of what he
is saying, around as many as a hundred thousand new
cases per day, if there's no change in terms of
(12:24):
how we as people and governments and and everyone else
are fighting the virus right on a day when global
deaths succeed five hundred thousand in cases top ten millions,
so crucial as we know to containing our slowing the
spread of the virus. Jason, it's it's about protecting the
most vulnerable, which we no means of course, our older population.
So let's get into it because we know our next
(12:46):
guest has some thoughts on it. Dr Near Barzilai. He
is the director of the Institute for Aging Research at
the Albert Einstein College of Medicine. He's also director of
the Paul left Glen Center for the Biology of Human
Aging Research and of the National Institutes of Health Centers
of Excellence in the Basic Biology of Aging. So when
it comes to aging, this is the guy who's joining
(13:06):
us on the phone in Westchester, New York. Dr bars Ali,
are nice to have you here on Bloomberg Radio. Um
talk to us about the importance of understanding the most
vulnerable populations, including those who are elderly, in terms of
really getting a handle on this virus. Alright, so not
nice being with you. And I want to start with
(13:26):
a misconception, and that is that there's nothing you can
do about aging. I think we're confusing by the fact
that we all end up dying. But that's not the
same as we cannot do anything about aging. In fact,
aging has the biology. You know, you can see, you
can see who's old and who's young. But the more
(13:48):
important thing is this biology can be targeted. And we
and when I'm saying we, gero science is gero science
is kind of a and you the study of all
these new but we've made huge progress. We went to
from hope to promise, and we know that aging can
(14:09):
be targeted by different ways. And I think the COVID
nineteen just underline how vulnerable are the elderly, but also
maybe gave hope that we can actually intervene and defend
the elderly host And so what have we learned, Dr
(14:31):
Barzilai about you know what we can do? You know,
taking into account everything that you just said when it
comes to COVID nineteen, how should we be thinking, especially about,
as Carol said, this more vulnerable population and given given
a lot of scary things that that we're seeing out there,
(14:53):
So you know, I would I would mention as briefly
as I can two things that are interaction with with
the environment. That is exercise and nutrition. Right, those are
things that we know that is going to affect agent.
It's kind of tough, but it's not really tough for
(15:14):
people who haven't walked before to start walking, or two
people to exercise regularly in the and do it safely.
With the nutrition. I have a specific suggestion that will
affect more people than many other diets that I can
tell you, and this is to start doing intermittent fasting,
(15:37):
which really means just keepping breakfast. We call it sixteen eight.
You could do fifty nine if you want, but you know,
sixteen eight is if you finish dinner at eight, don't
eat anything until twelve the next day. That's sixteen hours
and you can do it because even if you're hungry,
there's only two hours to go and then you can
(16:00):
whatever you want. And with this diet you lose weight also,
but more important, this is something that upregulate your defense.
That's important for aging. Can I ask you, but Dr Barsla,
I want to ask you something. A lot of elderly
folks have something like diabetes where they have to be
(16:20):
very careful about, you know, when they eat and how
they eat in terms of maintaining their levels. So how
does someone like that, we're losing weight can improve their health,
but yet they're stuck on something like that. Yeah, well,
I'm actually a diabetology so and and and so. Look,
one of the things that we want people to do
(16:42):
is lose weight are diabetics, and unfortunately only three percent
of them will do this. Okay, So the advice and
the method is good when it comes to treatment, you know,
and I don't want to spend too much time of it,
but it's very adjustable. You know, if you're an insulin
and you're fasting, then the instutin you should get with
(17:02):
the meals and not with the fath basically, so there's
a way to do it. But I'm not talking about
diabetic people now. I'm just talking about if you're you know,
if you if you're now want to avoid COVID, exercise
and nutrition or weight loss or or maybe intermittent fasting
(17:22):
is the way that you can. It does few things.
It increased your immunity, it decreased your inflammation, and it's
increased the ability of your body to sustain a very
severe disease. Okay, so those all are are good advice
if you can do it. But I really wanted to
talk about other things. You know, for us, aging has
(17:47):
eight hallmarks that we agree upon, and the hallmarks are
really knobs that we can target with drugs that could
have a major effect on aging. And I want to
take talk about one of those drugs because this drug
is readily, readily available and very cheap. Unfortunately, you have
(18:09):
to tell us about it in thirty seconds because we're
going to write at a time. Dr Barsla I said,
just okay. It's it's called mitforming. It's a drug that's
given to diabetic patients and from studies with COVID nineteen,
we know that people on mitforming have four times less
mortality and their hospitalized less. So what I'm saying, there
(18:32):
are other options where we have to defend the host
besides fighting the virus. Al Right, well we will, uh
come Yeah, You'll have to come back and spend more
time with this because I feel like you are working
in a number of areas that are certainly very interesting
to us, in very critical to everything that's going on
in the world. Dr near bars Lai is the founder
(18:54):
of the Institute for Aging Research at the Albert Einstein
College Medicine, among many other things. Uh glad to have
him with us. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio Now. In this
week's edition of Business Week Small Business Survival Guide, we
continue to look at how small businesses are reopening in
a week, where as Jason I just talked about some
(19:14):
states you know, are being very cautious or rolling back plans.
Joining us once again, as Bloomberg News editor Dimitri Cassa Needy.
She's on the phone in New York City joining us.
Also is Abigail Shape and she's owner of Abigail Rose
and Lily Too. It's a woman and children's clothing store
that's located in Piermont, New York. She joins us on
(19:35):
the phone from Piermont. Nice to have you both with
with us, dimitra Um. We want to get into abigail story.
But you guys continue to take a look at what's
going on in small businesses. What's the overlying trend here?
Do you feel like they're finding it easier or is
it continuing to be pretty difficult. I think I would
say I think there are still challenges. It's not you know,
(19:56):
it's not something where there was a solution um away
forward and you can just stick with that and not
have to adjust. I think it's a constant. My sense
from many business owners, not just Abigail who will be
talking to in a minute, is that there's a constant reassessment. Um,
we're not seeing you know the problems that are happening
in some other states right now, and yet that does
(20:19):
you know, it would be smart for everybody to kind
of look at those things pay attention to them, give
them pause and think about what the plans are going
to be. If at any given moment you again have
to reassess and move in another direction because of how
things are going. And so Abigail, help us understand what
it does look like from your perspective. And I have
(20:40):
to say, I'm sort of virtually waving to you. I'm
just across the just across the Mario Cuomo Memorial Bridge
otherwise known as the Tapancy Bridge formally and Sleepy Hollow.
So what are you think over there in Pyrmont. Um. Well,
we are seeing that people I think as people are
(21:00):
not going on vacation, maybe as much not traveling. So
people from the Chi state area are coming to Piermont
a lot um on the weekends or as a day visitor. UM.
But a lot of the stores and UM ourselves included,
are taking it slow to reopen. Um. We are at
a village with a lot of restaurants, a lot of
really great restaurants, and the restaurants are open with outdoor seating. UM.
(21:25):
But UM, so that that's keeping our town really active
and people are coming to visit for that. UM. But yeah,
we have a few stores in town that haven't opened
at all, and we are kind of in an in
between phase ourselves. How hard has it been, Abigail, Well, UM,
we're really lucky. We've been UM the store with my
(21:46):
mom's she started it's named for me and my sister,
UM and she started at night, and UM it's been
in Piermont this whole time. UM. We've been through some
major disasters like Hurricane Sandy and other disasters that hit
Piermont really hard. UM this is obviously a worldwide UH disaster.
But UM, our loyal clientele has really stuck with us
(22:08):
and they've been UH. We've we shifted everything online and
UM and took herbside and originally in March we were
doing sort of local delivery and that was keeping us UM,
keeping us afloat, and people were super supportive, and our
loyal clientele, I think, really wanted to support businesses that
were important to them. So UM, we're really extremely lucky
(22:32):
for that. UM. But it has been definitely challenging. There's
so much pivoting that is taking place all the time,
like reassessing what's important to us. We're also UM sheltering
and us sort of pollowed with our parents who are
in their seventies, and my sister and I both have
four year old daughters, so we've got little ones and
older people to think about. UM, So we don't feel
(22:55):
comfortable just letting the world in our door. UM when
as the meat who was saying, there's you know, the
virus is still kind of on the loose. Yeah. I
mean that's such an interesting point too, because you know,
you have to think about yourselves and and your employees
as well, because you know everybody is you know, either
going home to or you know, even with social distancing
(23:16):
and all that, you know, interacting with people who who
could be vulnerable. And I would imagine that that weighs
heavily on you. It definitely does. And UM, even though
so in the Lower Hudson Valley region we're in now,
I'm going to be confused by which phase we're in.
I guess we're in the phase where we can be
really fully open with a lot of restrictions on how
many people can come in. UM, but we are UM,
(23:40):
we're taking and we're having We're trying to keep one
customer and at a time where if two customers come in,
then one of us leaves spaces physically very small, and
there's not, um, a lot of ventilation. We just have
a door. We don't have me you know, we have
the shop windows, but no like airfow windows, and it
just doesn't feel like the kind of space that you want. Yeah,
(24:03):
I mean for social distancing. Yeah, it's tricky. Um. Demitro
just got about thirty seconds left here. I mean, as
you guys continue to cover this, Um, what are you
looking to do? Well? I mean, I think we're looking
at more stories of just how people are approaching this because,
as we've heard with other interviews, no guidance really right.
Nobody gives you a roadmap to reopening, and everybody is different. Um,
(24:27):
And I think it's interesting and helpful and useful to
hear about the ways that stores are making these decisions.
You'll read more about Abigail and Lily's decisions about their
story later in the week when we do a fuller story.
But we're looking to track that and just see how
it's going and to stand on top of it over
the long run, Um, when bigger decisions are going to
be confronted that might be much more fundamentally challenging decisions
(24:51):
about the longevity of the business, you know, because I
do think now this reality is setting up on us
that it's going to be very hard to make our
way through this to a point where we're really back
and living the way we were living four months ago,
five months ago. Yeah for sure. Yeah, all right, Well,
thank you both so much. To meet your Cassanin's editor
(25:12):
for Bloomberg joining us on the phone. And Abigail Chapin
it is time for the drive too close, one of
our favorites, friend of the show. I know, I love
when she comes and hangs out with us in the studio,
but we are in a distant world right now, but
happy to have with us. Hillary Kramer, President ce IO
at A and G Capital. Hillary, how the heck are you?
(25:34):
I am doing very very well. Thank you, Jason good.
So what's the what's your world like at this moment
in terms of you know, just like talking to clients
looking at the market like it's obviously an upside down,
topsy turvy world. But you know, you've seen crises, you've
seen cycles generally, what do you make of this one?
(25:55):
The market has hoped for tomorrow and until something breaks it.
So there's a break in it. The market is going
to keep. It'll just keep going higher, and investors are
still being forced to go into the stock market, and
the Federal Reserve is making it phenomenally easy. You know,
it's easy money, easy money. And uh, I was just
(26:19):
looking a triple B bond. Okay, basically do almost junk
is two point seven percent? Well, people are willing to
buy it because the ten years giving them point six percent.
So corporations are able to, you know, continue to issue
the debt out there and it keeps getting bought. But
(26:40):
in terms of Jason your specific question, because I know
what has to do with you know, where are we
finding what niche are we finding opportunities? We're finding plenty
of opportunities, especially in these small caps like we just, um,
we just put a buy on Sally. Sally Beauty as
h small cap did two dollars and twenty six cents
US years dollars this year, and it's it's a great
(27:04):
undervalued company. But everybody thinks that COVID nineteen is going
to hit it a lot worse. The other one that
I believe I have spoken about before is valvolen v
z Z. Yeah, Valvoine nine dollars stop. There's two point
three four percent of diving in yield. We love it.
We think you could go to twenty four to twenty five.
(27:24):
I mean it's right now nineteen and a half dollars,
so it's it's not like some double out there. But
I'll take two point three percent. And people aren't buying
new cars. Okay, so they're not buying new cars. Wait, wait, wait,
I have to get in Wait, I don't agree with you.
I'm out all the roads, Hillary, and I feel like
everyone is out there. I see all these new cars
(27:46):
with you know, you can tell they have the license plates,
the tempts, the temporary plates, um. And I just feel
like a lot of people because maybe they're not going
to get on a plane, maybe they're more inclined to
get in the car and go for a ride and
they feel safe in their cars. Well they're they're in
their cars and they're gonna need uh an oil change,
that's for sure, because they're going long distances. They're gonna
(28:08):
need new wipers and and that's exactly what Volvoline does.
You can do it yourself, or you can go into
you know, one of their quick group shops. But in
terms of actual cars, look, Mercedes is doing zero percent
financing that the car companies are really struggling out there.
Take a look at a range Rover a lot and
(28:28):
they're like practically doubled up one on top of the other.
Now there could be other cars. I also have a Subaru.
Subaru is great, but you know, if I can tell you,
Subaru is backed up in the service center. And that's
because people, from what I'm seeing, aren't buying new cars now.
Every year, you know, we have an average of how
many new cars are being bought at twelve million, eighteen
(28:50):
million and uh and we have yet to see actually
what happens. But in the next six months to come,
I believe we're gonna see a lot to try traveling,
you know, that's for sure, Caroline. But at the same time,
we're going to see people changing oil themselves, and there's
that pent up demand for it because they've been home
for three months. So we've been talking a lot about tech,
(29:14):
Hillary and tech. Big tech especially has had a nice run.
But I have to think that feels a little bit
over bought at this point, knowing you a little bit
like that feels like someplace that you might not be
going as the things right well, It's actually interesting, Jason,
what a great point because with my team we were
(29:35):
just talking about Facebook. I said, why is I want
everyone to say, why is Facebook not down more? Having
lost all of these advertisers. And of course it's what
percentage is you know dub soap and what new know
Leaver and what percentage is Verizon? But you know, the
markets betting it over the long term, these advertisers are
going to come back, you know, they just are. And
(29:57):
big Tech the markets ignoring valuation, and you know they
really are ignoring them. You know that being said, will
be interesting to see if Apple can get up there
and hit new highs. Uh. You know it's high with
three dollars this year, it's at three six. Let's see
what happens with with Apple. That's the one I'm kind
(30:18):
of keeping my eye on. To me, that's just such
an important indicator because we really where the consumer is at,
because right, I mean, consumers can either keep the one
they have or they can buy a new one if
they feel like they have money in their pockets, if
they feel confident. So that's where the Apple is just
(30:39):
a great proxy for understanding where the market stands. But
in terms of tech, look, I'm very excited because ets
hit fifty two weeks new high today, eBay hit in
fifty two week high Shopify and you know what the
best one of all I know you'll love this group
Match Drew No. Okay, that's actually come to our attention
(31:00):
at recently. It's up fifty seven percent here. It's a
hundred and five dollar stock. They have Okay Cupid, they
have lots of swiping that you can do. But the
bottom line is, I think people really fundamentally got lonely
and realized how important family and relationships are when they
were quarantined at home. And uh, I just think Match
(31:22):
probably has potential to continue going up from here. Especially
people aren't going to be going into bars, you know,
so even the people who are, I guess gonna be
swiping more than looking for their long term love that
we're also on Match, so uh, I would say that's
one to really watch. So Jason Tech, look for those texts,
(31:43):
uh that that are very related there. And I'm not
going to get into Chewi because now I think Chewy
the online well you could do that one for me
because I hillary, I love I love dogs. You can
do that. You got about twenty seconds. Okay, chew chewy
dot COM's d h W. Why everyone else? I started
with Chewy ay three dollars, saying by it, by it,
(32:05):
by it, And I think Chewy has upside potential. From here,
Amazon would be foolish not to step in and buy
Chewy dot Com or maybe even some big retailer. So
Chewy is is more popular than ever before. And and Carol,
what do you have? You have Afghans? What kind of dogs?
I have an Irish terrier Scout? Okay, I guess if
(32:29):
you follow um maybe most summer. I don't know if
it's going to be the case this summer, but most
of August Carol's Twitter feed is just filled with pictures
of Scout on a boat. So family doesn't let me
take pictures of them, so I've decided the Scout can't argue.
All right, Hillary Kerber, always good to catch up with you,
really nice to hear your voice. Be well, look forward
(32:51):
to seeing you on the other side of all this.
Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download
the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud, Blueberg dot com, or wherever
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