October 3, 2025 • 30 mins
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Hamas agreed to release all Israeli hostages captured in its Oct. 7 attack but said the rest of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan would be subject to negotiation.
The statement was a positive step that still raised questions about whether the promise would be sufficient to end the fighting. It also didn’t address Trump’s demand that the group disarm
In a statement, Hamas said it agreed “to release all Israeli prisoners — both living and deceased — in accordance with the exchange formula outlined in President Trump’s proposal, and contingent upon the necessary field conditions for carrying out the exchange.”
Hamas also said the hostages would need to be released “in a manner that ensures the cessation of the war and the full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip,” a caveat that raised questions in Israel about whether the group would go through with the plan. Hamas also said it was ready to transfer administration of the Gaza Strip to “a Palestinian body composed of independent technocrats.”
The group also said other parts of Trump’s 20-point plan “require a unified national stance and must be addressed based on relevant international laws and resolutions.”
Today's show features:
- Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Defense Analyst Wayne Sanders on Hamas agreeing to release remaining Israeli hostages
- Bloomberg TV & Radio International Economics & Policy Correspondent Mike McKee on his conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran
- Karin Kimbrough, Chief Economist at LinkedIn, on the health of the US labor market
- Dr. Iman Abuzeid, Co-Founder and CEO of Incredible Health, on building the largest career marketplace for permanent healthcare workers
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business
Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders
stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends
shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech
(00:23):
news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast
with Carol Masther and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
We do have our most read story in the Bloomberg
now that Hamas has agreed to release all Israeli hostages
captured in that October seventh attack, but said the rest
of President Donald Trump's twenty point peace plan would be
subject to negotiation.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Let's get the latest on that.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
For that, we do head to our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior
Defense alys Wayne Sanders joining us. Wayne, This feels like
a big development, but again with caveats, walk us through
what's significant and what's still to be known.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Well, I think the fact that they're doing anything at
all at this point in time is good, right, It's
showing that from Hamas's side is Hey, look, we need
to come to the table with more than just with
more than just rhetoric. We actually have to put action
to this. I think the Sunday deadline that President Trump
put out is something that he's holding to, and I
mean he's said what he was planning on doing, if
(01:20):
not right, unleashing all hell on against Hamas. So they
are taking it seriously. But at the same time, they
do recognize that they're not able to just go ahead
and submit to all twenty twenty of those. So I
think there's going to be a lot of the geopolitical
play over the weekend where they're trying to figure out
how to reach I don't know whether they're going to
(01:41):
go to all twenty and then it's really going to
be back into President Trump's hands.
Speaker 5 (01:45):
Where do you yeah, other parts of the President's twenty
point plan require a unified national stance and must be
addressed based on relevant international laws and resolutions. Where does
it seem like to you. I don't want to call
them sticking points, because the twenty point plan is very
deep tilled, but based on the statement that we got
from Hamas, what does it seem like they are not
(02:05):
agreeing to at this point and why?
Speaker 4 (02:09):
I think I think some of the points that are
really sticking with is just taking some of the ownership
as part of it, right, They realized that inside that
region when you're looking at what what countries are going
to go towards towards in backing the US and President
Trump's plan, and then which ones may not. You know,
there's a lot of geopolitical pieces that play in the here.
Likely with Trump is going to be UAE, It's going
(02:30):
to be functionally on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There are
other ones that are not pro Hamas, but they're also
not with President Trump as well. And that's like guitar
and Aman and Kuwait. They all playing different plays in this, right.
So I think the sticking point is making sure that
if if AMAS is coming to the table, what how
is it going to be felt within the region from
(02:50):
the Gulf states that may there still may try to
get out of their side.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
I mean, yeah, and.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
The relationships are so tricky here, right, like trying to
understand it and all the implications of such. Having said that,
I mean my understanding that I think we were talking
to a member of the Bloomberg team on the ground
about was it on Monday and that there were still
things going off in Gaza.
Speaker 5 (03:18):
Yeah, as he was talking to us, we were hearing ordinance, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
And so it's just it's very tricky, it's very delicate,
and I'm just curious where Israel is in all of this,
and I guess we're going to be watching them very
closely here.
Speaker 4 (03:33):
Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, when you think about it, it's
a military offensive that they're putting on until they feel
that that Hamas has actually come to the table and
has met those demands, right, So they're not going to
back off. I mean, at the most they would probably
do is they would hold the positions that they currently have.
But if there are military strikes based off of, you know,
credible threat intelligence that they have of Hamas leadership as
(03:55):
of right now, as of the time of this broadcast, right,
they have not agreed to the twenty So therefore then
they consider it fair game as part of their offensive
operations that they have said that they were going to do.
They warned ahead of time that it was going to happen,
and so if they're still going to conduct that through that.
We saw that even in Israel Iran when when that
was going off before Operation Midnight Hammer is even when
(04:18):
President Trump was saying, hey, here are the timelines and
here's kind of the date, we're going to put this
line in the sand. You still saw Israel and Iran
still continuing to fire at each other right up until
that last minute. So I bet this is part of that.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
All Right, I'm going to be silly here, but we
are living in silly and interesting and difficult times to
say that. And Bloomberg is a whole story on this,
So I feel it's very credible, Wayne, But we have
a story. President Trump wants the Nobel Prize and is
applying pressure to win it. And I just the timing
of all of this, because I think the Peace Prize
is going to be Is it announced next week or
very soon? And so I just wonder timing in all
(04:53):
of this. Is it silly to even bring it up.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
I wouldn't say it's silly to bring it up. I
mean might be in the back of the mind. I
mean you heard during his conference with Secretary Hegsath and
all of the generals that took place on Tuesday, he
brought that up. He goes, they're not going to give
it to me. He almost made a flippant comment about
you know, like, oh, they're not going to give it
to me. They're going to give it to somebody else,
but it was something that he did still bring up,
So I think that is something that is out there.
(05:20):
Otherwise I don't think he would have brought it up
in front of all the military leadership on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
And we should say the winner is going to be
announced on October ten, So it is just around the corner.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:27):
The President told the UN General Assembly last week that
everyone says they should get the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing
that he and the US never received any credit for
striking Abraham Accords.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
More importantly, I think about not silly.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Is this going to bring real peace to this part
of the Middle East and really bring an end to
a conflict that we have seen between Israel and Hamas
that has gone on for so long.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Yeah, that's a really, really tough one, one that is
way above my pay grade. I only say that just
from the standpoint is there is so much history, so
much of their cultures that have been tied to this
for thousands of years. This isn't you know. This is
a new thing that's kind of coming up. So I
have a hard time believing that they ever are going
(06:17):
to completely just want to be at peace with one another.
But I think that if least you can create some
you know, strict boundaries and guidelines that are on that
may at least provide some resolving piece over at least
the near term.
Speaker 5 (06:31):
Wayne Sanders from our Bloomberg Intelligence team joining us from
just outside of Washington, d C.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
And Bald's a power with Joe Matthew.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
We'll have more on all of this, the ins and
outs of all of the news out of the nation's
capital coming up at five pm Wall Street time, and
of course the latest on what we are hearing on
this Humas agreement.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
It seems like saying it agrees.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
To release all Israeli hostages again coming out in a statement.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
All right, Wayne, thank you so much for that.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Stay with us. More Fromloomberg Business Week Daily coming up
after this.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during
Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Normally we would be talking about this being jobs Friday.
You know that's not the case because of the US
government shutdown, So we are leaning on other data points
and voices for clues on the labor market, and that
includes members of the Federal Reserve, including the newest member
of the FED Board, Stephen Myron, who earlier joined Bloomberg
TV and Radio. One of the things he stressed that
he may just be data dependent after all, just like
(07:42):
Fitchair J.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Powell.
Speaker 6 (07:44):
So my view is driven by two things. Sheltered sorry
services are the more persistent and sticky part of inflation.
Services are driven in large part by housing, and I
expect housing inflation to come down through those channels. If
something were to happen that were to tell me that
that channel is in validate, that there's some shock that's
going to be pushing rints materially higher, the benign inflation
(08:06):
forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as
a result.
Speaker 5 (08:10):
That's FED Governor Stephen Myrin earlier today on Bloomberg Television
also Sheriff President Trump's Council and Economic Advisors on leave,
though from that job now FED Governor. As we mentioned,
Michael McKee part of the team that did that interview.
He's with us right now. He's Bloomberg TV and Radio
International Economics and Policy correspondent. He joins us here in
the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studio. So we're going to talk about
(08:31):
him being data dependent in just a second, but I
want to stick on this idea of shelter as it
relates to the inflationary view. What is his thesis, What
is his theory that that part of inflation will start
to ease.
Speaker 7 (08:46):
Well, the theory is that because they are removing so
many undocumented aliens from the United States, it will reduce
demand for housing, and that will bring down the price
of housing because more houses will be available to those
who are still here. It's based on a study that
was done in two thousand and three about the Marial
boat lift in Miami, which found that there was sort
(09:09):
of a one to one relationship there between removal and
prices going down. A lot of economists say that's a
tough thing to scale up nationwide and to say is
a rule that will apply in the future. But that's
his story and that's what his belief is in terms
of bringing down service price inflation and therefore overall inflation.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
Well, shelter such a tricky thing for the FED too,
actually effect and Fetcher J. Powell has talked about this
for years.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Mike.
Speaker 5 (09:41):
He said, given the tools that we have we can
only do so much when it comes to shelter prices,
and in fact, he's talked about that being more of
a policy issue in the past than it is about
being part of the FEDS to a mandate.
Speaker 7 (09:54):
Well, most analysts of the housing industry say that the
problem for housing is that there's not enough supply, and
a lot of that has to do with zoning regulations.
In cities. You can always build out in the suburbs.
Now you have to go to the exerbs, and you
start to get so far away from people's jobs that
they don't want to move out there. They'd like housing
in the more central areas, which means you need more density,
(10:17):
and that's a big fight always, So that is a
policy problem. The other problem is that the FED controls
short rates, and so if you are worried about mortgage rates,
that they're going to be much more closely tied to
long treasuries like the ten year, and that's going to
be priced by the markets in what they think of
(10:38):
inflation is going to be. So it's another reason why
people are dubious about Myron's view on bringing down inflation
through housing.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Three or four houses for Salem, my I block. So
there's definitely some supply that I am seeing. And I
remember actually a voice this week on surveillance with Tom
and Paul that they talked in the morning about No,
there is plenty of supply out there. So I'm a
little confused. I want to move on to another FED voice,
Fed Reserve Vice Chair of Philip Jefferson making some comments
(11:09):
and cautioning on risks to inflations, to inflation.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
And job goals.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
There are FED voices that matter more than most, and
we know Jay Powell is certainly one of them.
Speaker 3 (11:17):
What about mister Jefferson.
Speaker 7 (11:19):
Well, he matters in the sense that as Vice chair,
he's not going to dissent unless he has some horrible
disagreement with j Powell. And so if that's where he is,
that's where Powell is. And you get the same thing
when you're talking about what John Williams thinks is the
vice chair of the Open Market Committee. So it tells
us that basically the FED is on board with another
(11:40):
rate cut, because that's what Powell suggested at the last meeting.
The question is is it October or December. Most people
in the markets think it'll be October, and without data,
the general feeling seems to be well, that doesn't give
them a reason to change their mind. Now, it could
give them a reason to wait, yeah, and see what happens.
But I think what we have to do is wait
(12:02):
until we get closer to the end of the month
the meeting's on the twenty ninth of October, and then
start judging what FED people are saying.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Speaking of changing one's mind, and I do want to
go back to Steve Myron for a moment from the
conversation that you had this morning with the team on
Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Is it fair to.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Say he is kind of data dependent? Did he kind
of come across that way?
Speaker 7 (12:25):
Well, he stated dependent to the extent that the data
back up what he thinks is going to happen. He's
saying that he is looking forward, which is basically more
base being based more on forecasts than on past data.
So it's going to be hard to say he's wrong
(12:45):
in the short term because whatever he's predicting hasn't happened yet.
But his view is that the economy is going to slow,
that the labor market is going to slow, and that
inflation is also going to come down, and therefore you
could cut rates, and you should cut rates more quickly
because you don't want the economy to weaken too much.
But again it's all based on forecasts as opposed to
(13:06):
prior data.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
We know that he's on leave from the job of
chair of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. You and
the team asked about input from the president. What did
he tell you when it comes to not just whether
or not always had an interview to be the FED chair,
but if he's ever been asked by the President to
actually take a specific policy action.
Speaker 7 (13:28):
Well, he gave this the same answer that he has
given other people, that he has not heard from the
President since the day he was confirmed, when Trump gave
him a call to congratulate him, but did not ask
him to do anything particular. And he says since then
he hasn't heard from mister Trump and that the President
has never asked him to take a particular position. On
the other hand, you know, if mom told you a
(13:50):
couple of weeks ago to clean up your room and
she's standing there staring at you, you kind of get
the message, and having to say it, I think Carol
would agree totally.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
You can alway, yes, yes, we did get some data. Well,
you know, first I want to say in terms of
jobs day that we've gotten so far.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
You know, I've heard people say we're kind of flying
blind without the monthly job's date or the government shut
down and not getting government data on the US economy.
Are we completely flying blind? Or do those private reports
and the different reports, including ism that we got today
still help form a fair picture of the US economy.
Speaker 7 (14:28):
They give you a sort of pointless picture of the economy,
you know, it's not sharply defined. But there's a lot
of private data out there now, more and more all
the time. Revellio Labs is a new one out there.
They were out today saying sixty thousand jobs in the
month of September. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg was fifty
(14:49):
three thousand. So they're in that ballpark. ADP was negative
thirty two thousand, so they're in a different ballpark. They're
playing in away game, different ballpark altogether. But in general,
you get the idea that this is what's happening in
the economy. And remember that whatever the first Jobs report
(15:10):
number is, it's going to be revised and the FED
knows that as well, so they have a lot of
their own data sources that they use to try to
figure out what's going on.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Well, you guys asked Governor Myron about this, whether or
not the lack of data would affect the Fed's job,
and he gave an interesting answer.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
I thought.
Speaker 5 (15:26):
He said, the FED uses that data, but they're not
making decisions each and every day. What did you make
of that?
Speaker 7 (15:31):
Well, the market is always moving rates around because of
the latest data or the latest thing that happens to
a particular company, and the FED just every six weeks,
and so they look at what all the data up
to that point is. Plus, as I said, they have
their own data. They get the ADP day, the raw
ADDP data, and they manipulate it their own ways. Statistically,
(15:56):
they don't do what ADP does with the Stanford Lab
to come up with the numbers that we get from them.
So they have their own views on what we're seeing.
And as I've noted before, right now, given all the
problems we've had with data coming out of the pandemic,
right the FED officials are leaning much more on their
(16:19):
conversations with CEOs and businesses about what's happening to get
an idea.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Hey, twenty seconds. One other important indicator. I can't believe
we didn't get to it.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
The Swift measure, as in Taylor Swift new album, what
do we need to know?
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Real quickly?
Speaker 7 (16:33):
I found it had a good beat and I could
dance to it, which is a joke I used before,
and Carol got it. She's been around like me for
a while. It looks like about fifty to fifty on
the internet. Some people like it, some people don't like it.
But it's the most streamed album ever, so it tells
you that that's going to make some money, which is
(16:54):
good for the economy. So we thank Taylor Swift.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
And great for the tailor economy as well. Michael McKey,
thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during
this listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
We want to stay on the jobs report the US economy.
We want to see what she and her team at
LinkedIn are seeing. Let's bring in Karen Kimbrose, She's chief
economist at LinkedIn.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
Out there in.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Study Vale California. Karen, you guys have such a great
vantage point. You get lots of data on LinkedIn. Tell
us what you are seeing on the platform when it
comes to the US labor market.
Speaker 8 (17:34):
Yeah, so great to be here. Thanks for having me.
One of the things we're seeing right now is an
incredibly sluggish labor market. Hiring is slow. In fact, by
our own data, we're seeing hiring that's down last month
three and a half percent on the month and nearly
nine percent on the year, So we continue to see
hiring being very anemic. I don't think we're looking at
(17:58):
an economic recession, but we're definitely looking out a hiring recession,
if you will. Hiring is weak. One of the things
that we're also seeing here, not just in hiring, but
also just employer demand for taking on workers is just very,
very slow, and a lot of that has to do
with the fact that workers aren't leaving their jobs. We
(18:18):
see that quits by our own measures, people aren't leaving
their jobs by as much as they were in the past,
but they're applying to more jobs and having less success.
So it's a much more competitive and tough labor market
out there than it was before.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Can we go so far too to say employers are
still hoarding workers as well, Karen, Can you guys get
a feel on that as well. That's something that we've
certainly seen out of the pandemic, when folks who are
just you know, dying to get workers in and it
was hard, it was a very tight labor for so
they have been a little bit gun shy, if you will,
in this environment to kind of let folks go.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Do you see signs of that?
Speaker 8 (18:53):
I think so. We've been calling it job hugging. So
on the one hand, we're not seeing professionals that really
want to leave. They're not quitting, they're not rushing for
the doors. And on the other side, the employers aren't
yet sort of leveraging any kind of layoffs or reductions
in force in the private sector, not to any great degree.
(19:15):
When you look at the data that's out on jolts,
or you look at the data that is, you know,
in our own labor market data set here at LinkedIn,
we don't see elevated layoffs. So I do think employers
are kind of holding on to the talent they have.
They are definitely looking to refresh it where they can,
but they're being very cautious about it.
Speaker 5 (19:34):
You know, LinkedIn data only goes back so far, so
maybe there isn't a time when we can compare this
to Karen in recent years. But I'm wondering if what
this looks like at as far as other parts of
the economy or other parts of economic history, like, is
there a historical parallel you could draw as to where
we are in the cycle right now?
Speaker 8 (19:54):
Well, for us, that's right, We typically like to go
back to around twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen in our data
to where we feel confident that we can say something.
But when we look at the hiring rate right now
being so slow, so much lower than even last year,
twenty percent below the pre pandemic levels, I would say
hiring is as low as it's been since like twenty
(20:14):
thirteen right now. So it is a really, really kind
of slumbering labor market with not a lot of movement.
And I think one of the factors is that we
just don't have that churn. We're not seeing people quit,
we're not seeing people laid off, which is a great thing.
I'm glad about that, but it means that when people
don't leave their job, there's no vacancy to backfill democratic
(20:35):
things are very slow.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
You know, I'm curious, Karen, demographic differences, industry difference is
geographic differences, any color that you can give us on that.
Speaker 8 (20:45):
Demographically speaking, we definitely see that hiring is extremely punishing
for those entry level workers. So young grads who are
coming out with a college degree, their hiring rate is
twice as slow as everyone else is. So if I
told you that on average entry level workers, maybe without
(21:05):
a college degree, you're running a little bit slower than
the average worker. Those entry level workers with a college
degree are running far, far slower.
Speaker 5 (21:13):
Where are people getting jobs and where are they not
getting jobs?
Speaker 8 (21:16):
So people are definitely getting jobs if they work in
the skilled trades, you know, master electrician, plumber, pipe fitter,
if you're working in commercial construction, because there's a lot
of activity. You think about the plants that are being built,
utilities and electrical grids that are being expanded, there's a
lot of demand for construction work there. There's also a
(21:38):
lot of hiring, believe or not going on in the
financial sector. We're seeing it in education, We're seeing it
still in healthcare. So there are definitely pockets where people
are getting hired but where we're not seeing as much
momentum is sometimes in that middle space of either entry
level workers in the white collar space, or if you
think about some of the tech jobs are starting to
(22:01):
rotate away from classic coding requirements and looking for different skills,
and so that's causing a change in who's getting hired
in tech companies.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
So might say a Harvard trade school maybe makes sense then,
after all, which certainly relates to a story that we
talked about earlier in the week.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
Karen, so great to get time with you. We look
forward to maybe.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Next month or sooner, and maybe we'll actually have a
monthly jobs data to also reave into the conversation. Karen Kimbro,
chief economist at LinkedIn from Sunnyvale, California.
Speaker 5 (22:30):
Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
up after this.
Speaker 1 (22:38):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five. Yes during it,
listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
As you know, no monthly jobs report. We have talked
about that a lot. I will point out though, in
the last Monthly Jobs report for the government. We did
get that out last month showed hiring in the US
healthcare sector looking increasingly shaky, raising a warning flag for
the economy given its importance as a key driver of
job growth over the last three years. Now, tim healthcare
(23:13):
and social assistance companies added about forty seven thousand employees
to payrolls.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
That was in August, and that is the last month
that we have data for according to the BLS look.
Speaker 5 (23:23):
And we just spoke to Karen Kimbrow, a chief economist
over at LinkedIn, and she said the same thing that
they're seeing some strength when it comes to some areas,
including jobs like construction jobs like electrician, master plumber, but
also in the healthcare sector, still seeing hiring there exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
So let's get another view when it comes to healthcare jobs,
specifically the nursing industry.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
Back with us.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
As doctor Yiman Abu zaid, she's co founder and CEO
of Incredible Health. It's a career marketplace for connecting hospitals
to nursing talents who she has a good view on
all of this.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
She is here in studio. Nice to have you here.
How are you.
Speaker 7 (23:57):
I'm doing well.
Speaker 9 (23:58):
Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
Great to have you here.
Speaker 2 (24:01):
We are without the latest monthly jobs report, so we're
trying to kind of read the tea leaves and talk
to lots of folks.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
Talk to us about supply and demand for nurses in
the US. What are you seeing.
Speaker 9 (24:10):
We're still seeing a strong demand for healthcare in healthcare hiring,
the number of jobs are in healthcare are increasing, but
it's happening at a lower rate than it was before. Why, Like,
most likely changes to the economy and the macroeconomic changes
that we're facing as a country. So the other big
reason is the Big Beautiful Bill does have Medicare and
(24:31):
Medicaid reductions in it, which has slowed some a little
bit of hiring in healthcare too.
Speaker 5 (24:36):
A lot of healthcare jobs not necessarily our end, but
healthcare jobs are occupied in the US by people who
were not born in the US. I don't know the
data that you have on that on your platform, but
I'm curious if you're seeing any of the immigration changes
that we've seen during the Trump administration during the first
few months of this administration affect the workforce on your platform.
Speaker 9 (24:56):
Yeah, so twenty percent of healthcare workers in the US
were born out side of the US. So they do
compose an important part of the healthcare workforce that's already here.
To be honest, though, we're still with status quo with immigration.
I mean honestly, since twenty sixteen, there's just been a
huge slowdown in the number of healthcare workers entering the
country as immigrants, and a lot of that just continues
(25:19):
with every administration. We saw it with Biden, we're now
seeing it with Trump, and so that just highlights the
importance of US needing to take care of our domestic
healthcare workforce.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
So what's the answer in your view? If it's been
slowing down at this point for close to ten years,
then what's the right way to approach this?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
The best way to.
Speaker 9 (25:35):
Approach is to keep increasing the number of healthcare workers
in the US by encouraging more and more Americans to
go into healthcare. We also have to remove the ball
next in healthcare, including the nursing short the nursing school shortages,
the technician school shortages, and increasing the training programs that
are available for Americans.
Speaker 5 (25:52):
So, okay, I've talked to some doctors about this, friends
of mine, and they give me these numbers that are
just mind bogglingly small, Like some specialties only graduate like
three or four different residents per year in some schools,
and like it's an incredibly small number. So that seems
to be structural. But as you move down from actual mds,
is it easier to increase the number, because it doesn't
(26:14):
seem like it's easy to increase the number of doctors
in this country with the way the system is structured.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
That's exactly right.
Speaker 9 (26:20):
The way the system is currently structured, it is very
difficult for us as a country to increase the number
of healthcare workers that we desperately need. And healthcare still
remains the biggest labor shortage in the country, with the
demand continuing to increase from patients getting older, but not
enough healthcare workers in the system.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
Wait so cost, lack of places to educate folks, or
lack of desire for people to want to do it.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I mean, I know folks who are doctors, and I think, Timy, you.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
And I talk about this a lot, who don't necessarily
love it.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
And then there is the demographic.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
Side where I know, I've had doctors in my life
for years who have recently retired and we're scrambling to
find new doctors. What is like the key metric that
is our cost? Like, what is it that is really
preventing folks from going into the profession.
Speaker 9 (27:02):
It's really just the ballnecks we have in our system.
There is a desire from Americans to become healthcare workers.
It's a key way to change your socioeconomic status. But
we have ballnecks on hiring, on educating and on training
the healthcare workers.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Why do we have bottlenecks if we need them?
Speaker 9 (27:18):
Yeah, I think honestly, there's a lot of experiences that
we need to continue to improve. That's a lot where
incredible health comes in. We're actually announcing our AI agents.
So what we've done is really ushered in a new
era of healthcare hiring that can be done with AI
agents to really improve the experience of healthcare workers finding
their dream jobs and pursuing their dream careers.
Speaker 5 (27:41):
So that's on the hiring side. What about on the
actual taking care of patient's side and technology? There is
there a way to ease the burden on these healthcare
professionals using technology.
Speaker 9 (27:50):
Absolutely, healthcare is the one is one industry that is
adopting AI technology that very fast, almost has as other
industries which is unusual. Right in healthcare, we're seeing AI
agents be used at the bedside, We're seeing AI scribes
being used.
Speaker 5 (28:05):
So there are wed we've had experience with. Have you
had a doctor with a scribe, but I've had a
doctor with an AI scribe, I'm not sure. But apart
from that, I mean, and that's really helpful to doctors
when they're doing their notes. They probably don't have to
spend as much time doing that, and maybe they can
spend more time with patients.
Speaker 1 (28:18):
It's right.
Speaker 5 (28:18):
But beyond that is the technology to a place where
you can trust it to make decisions that are going
to lead to better outcomes for patients.
Speaker 9 (28:28):
Yeah, I believe that human connection still matters in healthcare,
both the human connection the empathy piece. I don't think
the jobs are necessarily going to be replaced with AI,
but AI is being used to augment and support these
healthcare workers who are generally an overworked and burnt out workforce.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Do you see eventually a day I'm going to just
go there?
Speaker 2 (28:47):
You know, as we continue to see like humanoids and robotics,
but a combination of robots with some AI and somehow
having a role.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
When it comes to American healthcare.
Speaker 9 (28:57):
Absolutely, I mean, we launched two AI agents, one named
Gail and one name Lynd.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
Gail is a.
Speaker 9 (29:03):
Career partner for healthcare workers, a lifelong career partner that
helps them generate resumes, that helps them with interview preparation,
helps them do MALK interviews, and over ninety percent of
nurses give it a thumbs up in terms of giving
it having a great experience, as well as referring it
to their friends. And then also Lynn is another AI
agent we have which is a co pilot for the
hiring teams. And so Lynn is now interviewing healthcare workers
(29:27):
and is selling them on the organization, discussing multiple jobs
with them and really sharing what's amazing about specific employers.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Oh what I really mean, just got about thirty seconds
the idea of an actual robot with AI and learning
and in a hospital helping out.
Speaker 9 (29:43):
I mean absolutely, I mean I think the future that's
where we're all headed, not just in.
Speaker 3 (29:47):
Healthcare, probably in other industries too.
Speaker 2 (29:49):
No, not for journalists for broadcast. Good to catch up
with you, Thank you so much, and great to have
you in studio.
Speaker 9 (29:55):
Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (29:57):
Take care, Doctor Eymon Abbozage. She's kept founder, chief executive
officer of Incredible Health.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
Right here in studio.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
This is the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday
afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(30:24):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business
Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders
stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends
shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech
(00:23):
news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast
with Carol Masther and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
We do have our most read story in the Bloomberg
now that Hamas has agreed to release all Israeli hostages
captured in that October seventh attack, but said the rest
of President Donald Trump's twenty point peace plan would be
subject to negotiation.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Let's get the latest on that.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
For that, we do head to our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior
Defense alys Wayne Sanders joining us. Wayne, This feels like
a big development, but again with caveats, walk us through
what's significant and what's still to be known.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Well, I think the fact that they're doing anything at
all at this point in time is good, right, It's
showing that from Hamas's side is Hey, look, we need
to come to the table with more than just with
more than just rhetoric. We actually have to put action
to this. I think the Sunday deadline that President Trump
put out is something that he's holding to, and I
mean he's said what he was planning on doing, if
(01:20):
not right, unleashing all hell on against Hamas. So they
are taking it seriously. But at the same time, they
do recognize that they're not able to just go ahead
and submit to all twenty twenty of those. So I
think there's going to be a lot of the geopolitical
play over the weekend where they're trying to figure out
how to reach I don't know whether they're going to
(01:41):
go to all twenty and then it's really going to
be back into President Trump's hands.
Speaker 5 (01:45):
Where do you yeah, other parts of the President's twenty
point plan require a unified national stance and must be
addressed based on relevant international laws and resolutions. Where does
it seem like to you. I don't want to call
them sticking points, because the twenty point plan is very
deep tilled, but based on the statement that we got
from Hamas, what does it seem like they are not
(02:05):
agreeing to at this point and why?
Speaker 4 (02:09):
I think I think some of the points that are
really sticking with is just taking some of the ownership
as part of it, right, They realized that inside that
region when you're looking at what what countries are going
to go towards towards in backing the US and President
Trump's plan, and then which ones may not. You know,
there's a lot of geopolitical pieces that play in the here.
Likely with Trump is going to be UAE, It's going
(02:30):
to be functionally on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There are
other ones that are not pro Hamas, but they're also
not with President Trump as well. And that's like guitar
and Aman and Kuwait. They all playing different plays in this, right.
So I think the sticking point is making sure that
if if AMAS is coming to the table, what how
is it going to be felt within the region from
(02:50):
the Gulf states that may there still may try to
get out of their side.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
I mean, yeah, and.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
The relationships are so tricky here, right, like trying to
understand it and all the implications of such. Having said that,
I mean my understanding that I think we were talking
to a member of the Bloomberg team on the ground
about was it on Monday and that there were still
things going off in Gaza.
Speaker 5 (03:18):
Yeah, as he was talking to us, we were hearing ordinance, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
And so it's just it's very tricky, it's very delicate,
and I'm just curious where Israel is in all of this,
and I guess we're going to be watching them very
closely here.
Speaker 4 (03:33):
Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, when you think about it, it's
a military offensive that they're putting on until they feel
that that Hamas has actually come to the table and
has met those demands, right, So they're not going to
back off. I mean, at the most they would probably
do is they would hold the positions that they currently have.
But if there are military strikes based off of, you know,
credible threat intelligence that they have of Hamas leadership as
(03:55):
of right now, as of the time of this broadcast, right,
they have not agreed to the twenty So therefore then
they consider it fair game as part of their offensive
operations that they have said that they were going to do.
They warned ahead of time that it was going to happen,
and so if they're still going to conduct that through that.
We saw that even in Israel Iran when when that
was going off before Operation Midnight Hammer is even when
(04:18):
President Trump was saying, hey, here are the timelines and
here's kind of the date, we're going to put this
line in the sand. You still saw Israel and Iran
still continuing to fire at each other right up until
that last minute. So I bet this is part of that.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
All Right, I'm going to be silly here, but we
are living in silly and interesting and difficult times to
say that. And Bloomberg is a whole story on this,
So I feel it's very credible, Wayne, But we have
a story. President Trump wants the Nobel Prize and is
applying pressure to win it. And I just the timing
of all of this, because I think the Peace Prize
is going to be Is it announced next week or
very soon? And so I just wonder timing in all
(04:53):
of this. Is it silly to even bring it up.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
I wouldn't say it's silly to bring it up. I
mean might be in the back of the mind. I
mean you heard during his conference with Secretary Hegsath and
all of the generals that took place on Tuesday, he
brought that up. He goes, they're not going to give
it to me. He almost made a flippant comment about
you know, like, oh, they're not going to give it
to me. They're going to give it to somebody else,
but it was something that he did still bring up,
So I think that is something that is out there.
(05:20):
Otherwise I don't think he would have brought it up
in front of all the military leadership on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
And we should say the winner is going to be
announced on October ten, So it is just around the corner.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:27):
The President told the UN General Assembly last week that
everyone says they should get the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing
that he and the US never received any credit for
striking Abraham Accords.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
More importantly, I think about not silly.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Is this going to bring real peace to this part
of the Middle East and really bring an end to
a conflict that we have seen between Israel and Hamas
that has gone on for so long.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Yeah, that's a really, really tough one, one that is
way above my pay grade. I only say that just
from the standpoint is there is so much history, so
much of their cultures that have been tied to this
for thousands of years. This isn't you know. This is
a new thing that's kind of coming up. So I
have a hard time believing that they ever are going
(06:17):
to completely just want to be at peace with one another.
But I think that if least you can create some
you know, strict boundaries and guidelines that are on that
may at least provide some resolving piece over at least
the near term.
Speaker 5 (06:31):
Wayne Sanders from our Bloomberg Intelligence team joining us from
just outside of Washington, d C.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
And Bald's a power with Joe Matthew.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
We'll have more on all of this, the ins and
outs of all of the news out of the nation's
capital coming up at five pm Wall Street time, and
of course the latest on what we are hearing on
this Humas agreement.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
It seems like saying it agrees.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
To release all Israeli hostages again coming out in a statement.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
All right, Wayne, thank you so much for that.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Stay with us. More Fromloomberg Business Week Daily coming up
after this.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during
Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Normally we would be talking about this being jobs Friday.
You know that's not the case because of the US
government shutdown, So we are leaning on other data points
and voices for clues on the labor market, and that
includes members of the Federal Reserve, including the newest member
of the FED Board, Stephen Myron, who earlier joined Bloomberg
TV and Radio. One of the things he stressed that
he may just be data dependent after all, just like
(07:42):
Fitchair J.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Powell.
Speaker 6 (07:44):
So my view is driven by two things. Sheltered sorry
services are the more persistent and sticky part of inflation.
Services are driven in large part by housing, and I
expect housing inflation to come down through those channels. If
something were to happen that were to tell me that
that channel is in validate, that there's some shock that's
going to be pushing rints materially higher, the benign inflation
(08:06):
forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as
a result.
Speaker 5 (08:10):
That's FED Governor Stephen Myrin earlier today on Bloomberg Television
also Sheriff President Trump's Council and Economic Advisors on leave,
though from that job now FED Governor. As we mentioned,
Michael McKee part of the team that did that interview.
He's with us right now. He's Bloomberg TV and Radio
International Economics and Policy correspondent. He joins us here in
the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studio. So we're going to talk about
(08:31):
him being data dependent in just a second, but I
want to stick on this idea of shelter as it
relates to the inflationary view. What is his thesis, What
is his theory that that part of inflation will start
to ease.
Speaker 7 (08:46):
Well, the theory is that because they are removing so
many undocumented aliens from the United States, it will reduce
demand for housing, and that will bring down the price
of housing because more houses will be available to those
who are still here. It's based on a study that
was done in two thousand and three about the Marial
boat lift in Miami, which found that there was sort
(09:09):
of a one to one relationship there between removal and
prices going down. A lot of economists say that's a
tough thing to scale up nationwide and to say is
a rule that will apply in the future. But that's
his story and that's what his belief is in terms
of bringing down service price inflation and therefore overall inflation.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
Well, shelter such a tricky thing for the FED too,
actually effect and Fetcher J. Powell has talked about this
for years.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Mike.
Speaker 5 (09:41):
He said, given the tools that we have we can
only do so much when it comes to shelter prices,
and in fact, he's talked about that being more of
a policy issue in the past than it is about
being part of the FEDS to a mandate.
Speaker 7 (09:54):
Well, most analysts of the housing industry say that the
problem for housing is that there's not enough supply, and
a lot of that has to do with zoning regulations.
In cities. You can always build out in the suburbs.
Now you have to go to the exerbs, and you
start to get so far away from people's jobs that
they don't want to move out there. They'd like housing
in the more central areas, which means you need more density,
(10:17):
and that's a big fight always, So that is a
policy problem. The other problem is that the FED controls
short rates, and so if you are worried about mortgage rates,
that they're going to be much more closely tied to
long treasuries like the ten year, and that's going to
be priced by the markets in what they think of
(10:38):
inflation is going to be. So it's another reason why
people are dubious about Myron's view on bringing down inflation
through housing.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Three or four houses for Salem, my I block. So
there's definitely some supply that I am seeing. And I
remember actually a voice this week on surveillance with Tom
and Paul that they talked in the morning about No,
there is plenty of supply out there. So I'm a
little confused. I want to move on to another FED voice,
Fed Reserve Vice Chair of Philip Jefferson making some comments
(11:09):
and cautioning on risks to inflations, to inflation.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
And job goals.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
There are FED voices that matter more than most, and
we know Jay Powell is certainly one of them.
Speaker 3 (11:17):
What about mister Jefferson.
Speaker 7 (11:19):
Well, he matters in the sense that as Vice chair,
he's not going to dissent unless he has some horrible
disagreement with j Powell. And so if that's where he is,
that's where Powell is. And you get the same thing
when you're talking about what John Williams thinks is the
vice chair of the Open Market Committee. So it tells
us that basically the FED is on board with another
(11:40):
rate cut, because that's what Powell suggested at the last meeting.
The question is is it October or December. Most people
in the markets think it'll be October, and without data,
the general feeling seems to be well, that doesn't give
them a reason to change their mind. Now, it could
give them a reason to wait, yeah, and see what happens.
But I think what we have to do is wait
(12:02):
until we get closer to the end of the month
the meeting's on the twenty ninth of October, and then
start judging what FED people are saying.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Speaking of changing one's mind, and I do want to
go back to Steve Myron for a moment from the
conversation that you had this morning with the team on
Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Is it fair to.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Say he is kind of data dependent? Did he kind
of come across that way?
Speaker 7 (12:25):
Well, he stated dependent to the extent that the data
back up what he thinks is going to happen. He's
saying that he is looking forward, which is basically more
base being based more on forecasts than on past data.
So it's going to be hard to say he's wrong
(12:45):
in the short term because whatever he's predicting hasn't happened yet.
But his view is that the economy is going to slow,
that the labor market is going to slow, and that
inflation is also going to come down, and therefore you
could cut rates, and you should cut rates more quickly
because you don't want the economy to weaken too much.
But again it's all based on forecasts as opposed to
(13:06):
prior data.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
We know that he's on leave from the job of
chair of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. You and
the team asked about input from the president. What did
he tell you when it comes to not just whether
or not always had an interview to be the FED chair,
but if he's ever been asked by the President to
actually take a specific policy action.
Speaker 7 (13:28):
Well, he gave this the same answer that he has
given other people, that he has not heard from the
President since the day he was confirmed, when Trump gave
him a call to congratulate him, but did not ask
him to do anything particular. And he says since then
he hasn't heard from mister Trump and that the President
has never asked him to take a particular position. On
the other hand, you know, if mom told you a
(13:50):
couple of weeks ago to clean up your room and
she's standing there staring at you, you kind of get
the message, and having to say it, I think Carol
would agree totally.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
You can alway, yes, yes, we did get some data. Well,
you know, first I want to say in terms of
jobs day that we've gotten so far.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
You know, I've heard people say we're kind of flying
blind without the monthly job's date or the government shut
down and not getting government data on the US economy.
Are we completely flying blind? Or do those private reports
and the different reports, including ism that we got today
still help form a fair picture of the US economy.
Speaker 7 (14:28):
They give you a sort of pointless picture of the economy,
you know, it's not sharply defined. But there's a lot
of private data out there now, more and more all
the time. Revellio Labs is a new one out there.
They were out today saying sixty thousand jobs in the
month of September. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg was fifty
(14:49):
three thousand. So they're in that ballpark. ADP was negative
thirty two thousand, so they're in a different ballpark. They're
playing in away game, different ballpark altogether. But in general,
you get the idea that this is what's happening in
the economy. And remember that whatever the first Jobs report
(15:10):
number is, it's going to be revised and the FED
knows that as well, so they have a lot of
their own data sources that they use to try to
figure out what's going on.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Well, you guys asked Governor Myron about this, whether or
not the lack of data would affect the Fed's job,
and he gave an interesting answer.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
I thought.
Speaker 5 (15:26):
He said, the FED uses that data, but they're not
making decisions each and every day. What did you make
of that?
Speaker 7 (15:31):
Well, the market is always moving rates around because of
the latest data or the latest thing that happens to
a particular company, and the FED just every six weeks,
and so they look at what all the data up
to that point is. Plus, as I said, they have
their own data. They get the ADP day, the raw
ADDP data, and they manipulate it their own ways. Statistically,
(15:56):
they don't do what ADP does with the Stanford Lab
to come up with the numbers that we get from them.
So they have their own views on what we're seeing.
And as I've noted before, right now, given all the
problems we've had with data coming out of the pandemic,
right the FED officials are leaning much more on their
(16:19):
conversations with CEOs and businesses about what's happening to get
an idea.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Hey, twenty seconds. One other important indicator. I can't believe
we didn't get to it.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
The Swift measure, as in Taylor Swift new album, what
do we need to know?
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Real quickly?
Speaker 7 (16:33):
I found it had a good beat and I could
dance to it, which is a joke I used before,
and Carol got it. She's been around like me for
a while. It looks like about fifty to fifty on
the internet. Some people like it, some people don't like it.
But it's the most streamed album ever, so it tells
you that that's going to make some money, which is
(16:54):
good for the economy. So we thank Taylor Swift.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
And great for the tailor economy as well. Michael McKey,
thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during
this listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
We want to stay on the jobs report the US economy.
We want to see what she and her team at
LinkedIn are seeing. Let's bring in Karen Kimbrose, She's chief
economist at LinkedIn.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
Out there in.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Study Vale California. Karen, you guys have such a great
vantage point. You get lots of data on LinkedIn. Tell
us what you are seeing on the platform when it
comes to the US labor market.
Speaker 8 (17:34):
Yeah, so great to be here. Thanks for having me.
One of the things we're seeing right now is an
incredibly sluggish labor market. Hiring is slow. In fact, by
our own data, we're seeing hiring that's down last month
three and a half percent on the month and nearly
nine percent on the year, So we continue to see
hiring being very anemic. I don't think we're looking at
(17:58):
an economic recession, but we're definitely looking out a hiring recession,
if you will. Hiring is weak. One of the things
that we're also seeing here, not just in hiring, but
also just employer demand for taking on workers is just very,
very slow, and a lot of that has to do
with the fact that workers aren't leaving their jobs. We
(18:18):
see that quits by our own measures, people aren't leaving
their jobs by as much as they were in the past,
but they're applying to more jobs and having less success.
So it's a much more competitive and tough labor market
out there than it was before.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Can we go so far too to say employers are
still hoarding workers as well, Karen, Can you guys get
a feel on that as well. That's something that we've
certainly seen out of the pandemic, when folks who are
just you know, dying to get workers in and it
was hard, it was a very tight labor for so
they have been a little bit gun shy, if you will,
in this environment to kind of let folks go.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Do you see signs of that?
Speaker 8 (18:53):
I think so. We've been calling it job hugging. So
on the one hand, we're not seeing professionals that really
want to leave. They're not quitting, they're not rushing for
the doors. And on the other side, the employers aren't
yet sort of leveraging any kind of layoffs or reductions
in force in the private sector, not to any great degree.
(19:15):
When you look at the data that's out on jolts,
or you look at the data that is, you know,
in our own labor market data set here at LinkedIn,
we don't see elevated layoffs. So I do think employers
are kind of holding on to the talent they have.
They are definitely looking to refresh it where they can,
but they're being very cautious about it.
Speaker 5 (19:34):
You know, LinkedIn data only goes back so far, so
maybe there isn't a time when we can compare this
to Karen in recent years. But I'm wondering if what
this looks like at as far as other parts of
the economy or other parts of economic history, like, is
there a historical parallel you could draw as to where
we are in the cycle right now?
Speaker 8 (19:54):
Well, for us, that's right, We typically like to go
back to around twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen in our data
to where we feel confident that we can say something.
But when we look at the hiring rate right now
being so slow, so much lower than even last year,
twenty percent below the pre pandemic levels, I would say
hiring is as low as it's been since like twenty
(20:14):
thirteen right now. So it is a really, really kind
of slumbering labor market with not a lot of movement.
And I think one of the factors is that we
just don't have that churn. We're not seeing people quit,
we're not seeing people laid off, which is a great thing.
I'm glad about that, but it means that when people
don't leave their job, there's no vacancy to backfill democratic
(20:35):
things are very slow.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
You know, I'm curious, Karen, demographic differences, industry difference is
geographic differences, any color that you can give us on that.
Speaker 8 (20:45):
Demographically speaking, we definitely see that hiring is extremely punishing
for those entry level workers. So young grads who are
coming out with a college degree, their hiring rate is
twice as slow as everyone else is. So if I
told you that on average entry level workers, maybe without
(21:05):
a college degree, you're running a little bit slower than
the average worker. Those entry level workers with a college
degree are running far, far slower.
Speaker 5 (21:13):
Where are people getting jobs and where are they not
getting jobs?
Speaker 8 (21:16):
So people are definitely getting jobs if they work in
the skilled trades, you know, master electrician, plumber, pipe fitter,
if you're working in commercial construction, because there's a lot
of activity. You think about the plants that are being built,
utilities and electrical grids that are being expanded, there's a
lot of demand for construction work there. There's also a
(21:38):
lot of hiring, believe or not going on in the
financial sector. We're seeing it in education, We're seeing it
still in healthcare. So there are definitely pockets where people
are getting hired but where we're not seeing as much
momentum is sometimes in that middle space of either entry
level workers in the white collar space, or if you
think about some of the tech jobs are starting to
(22:01):
rotate away from classic coding requirements and looking for different skills,
and so that's causing a change in who's getting hired
in tech companies.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
So might say a Harvard trade school maybe makes sense then,
after all, which certainly relates to a story that we
talked about earlier in the week.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
Karen, so great to get time with you. We look
forward to maybe.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Next month or sooner, and maybe we'll actually have a
monthly jobs data to also reave into the conversation. Karen Kimbro,
chief economist at LinkedIn from Sunnyvale, California.
Speaker 5 (22:30):
Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
up after this.
Speaker 1 (22:38):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five. Yes during it,
listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
As you know, no monthly jobs report. We have talked
about that a lot. I will point out though, in
the last Monthly Jobs report for the government. We did
get that out last month showed hiring in the US
healthcare sector looking increasingly shaky, raising a warning flag for
the economy given its importance as a key driver of
job growth over the last three years. Now, tim healthcare
(23:13):
and social assistance companies added about forty seven thousand employees
to payrolls.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
That was in August, and that is the last month
that we have data for according to the BLS look.
Speaker 5 (23:23):
And we just spoke to Karen Kimbrow, a chief economist
over at LinkedIn, and she said the same thing that
they're seeing some strength when it comes to some areas,
including jobs like construction jobs like electrician, master plumber, but
also in the healthcare sector, still seeing hiring there exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
So let's get another view when it comes to healthcare jobs,
specifically the nursing industry.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
Back with us.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
As doctor Yiman Abu zaid, she's co founder and CEO
of Incredible Health. It's a career marketplace for connecting hospitals
to nursing talents who she has a good view on
all of this.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
She is here in studio. Nice to have you here.
How are you.
Speaker 7 (23:57):
I'm doing well.
Speaker 9 (23:58):
Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
Great to have you here.
Speaker 2 (24:01):
We are without the latest monthly jobs report, so we're
trying to kind of read the tea leaves and talk
to lots of folks.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
Talk to us about supply and demand for nurses in
the US. What are you seeing.
Speaker 9 (24:10):
We're still seeing a strong demand for healthcare in healthcare hiring,
the number of jobs are in healthcare are increasing, but
it's happening at a lower rate than it was before. Why, Like,
most likely changes to the economy and the macroeconomic changes
that we're facing as a country. So the other big
reason is the Big Beautiful Bill does have Medicare and
(24:31):
Medicaid reductions in it, which has slowed some a little
bit of hiring in healthcare too.
Speaker 5 (24:36):
A lot of healthcare jobs not necessarily our end, but
healthcare jobs are occupied in the US by people who
were not born in the US. I don't know the
data that you have on that on your platform, but
I'm curious if you're seeing any of the immigration changes
that we've seen during the Trump administration during the first
few months of this administration affect the workforce on your platform.
Speaker 9 (24:56):
Yeah, so twenty percent of healthcare workers in the US
were born out side of the US. So they do
compose an important part of the healthcare workforce that's already here.
To be honest, though, we're still with status quo with immigration.
I mean honestly, since twenty sixteen, there's just been a
huge slowdown in the number of healthcare workers entering the
country as immigrants, and a lot of that just continues
(25:19):
with every administration. We saw it with Biden, we're now
seeing it with Trump, and so that just highlights the
importance of US needing to take care of our domestic
healthcare workforce.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
So what's the answer in your view? If it's been
slowing down at this point for close to ten years,
then what's the right way to approach this?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
The best way to.
Speaker 9 (25:35):
Approach is to keep increasing the number of healthcare workers
in the US by encouraging more and more Americans to
go into healthcare. We also have to remove the ball
next in healthcare, including the nursing short the nursing school shortages,
the technician school shortages, and increasing the training programs that
are available for Americans.
Speaker 5 (25:52):
So, okay, I've talked to some doctors about this, friends
of mine, and they give me these numbers that are
just mind bogglingly small, Like some specialties only graduate like
three or four different residents per year in some schools,
and like it's an incredibly small number. So that seems
to be structural. But as you move down from actual mds,
is it easier to increase the number, because it doesn't
(26:14):
seem like it's easy to increase the number of doctors
in this country with the way the system is structured.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
That's exactly right.
Speaker 9 (26:20):
The way the system is currently structured, it is very
difficult for us as a country to increase the number
of healthcare workers that we desperately need. And healthcare still
remains the biggest labor shortage in the country, with the
demand continuing to increase from patients getting older, but not
enough healthcare workers in the system.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
Wait so cost, lack of places to educate folks, or
lack of desire for people to want to do it.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I mean, I know folks who are doctors, and I think, Timy, you.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
And I talk about this a lot, who don't necessarily
love it.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
And then there is the demographic.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
Side where I know, I've had doctors in my life
for years who have recently retired and we're scrambling to
find new doctors. What is like the key metric that
is our cost? Like, what is it that is really
preventing folks from going into the profession.
Speaker 9 (27:02):
It's really just the ballnecks we have in our system.
There is a desire from Americans to become healthcare workers.
It's a key way to change your socioeconomic status. But
we have ballnecks on hiring, on educating and on training
the healthcare workers.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Why do we have bottlenecks if we need them?
Speaker 9 (27:18):
Yeah, I think honestly, there's a lot of experiences that
we need to continue to improve. That's a lot where
incredible health comes in. We're actually announcing our AI agents.
So what we've done is really ushered in a new
era of healthcare hiring that can be done with AI
agents to really improve the experience of healthcare workers finding
their dream jobs and pursuing their dream careers.
Speaker 5 (27:41):
So that's on the hiring side. What about on the
actual taking care of patient's side and technology? There is
there a way to ease the burden on these healthcare
professionals using technology.
Speaker 9 (27:50):
Absolutely, healthcare is the one is one industry that is
adopting AI technology that very fast, almost has as other
industries which is unusual. Right in healthcare, we're seeing AI
agents be used at the bedside, We're seeing AI scribes
being used.
Speaker 5 (28:05):
So there are wed we've had experience with. Have you
had a doctor with a scribe, but I've had a
doctor with an AI scribe, I'm not sure. But apart
from that, I mean, and that's really helpful to doctors
when they're doing their notes. They probably don't have to
spend as much time doing that, and maybe they can
spend more time with patients.
Speaker 1 (28:18):
It's right.
Speaker 5 (28:18):
But beyond that is the technology to a place where
you can trust it to make decisions that are going
to lead to better outcomes for patients.
Speaker 9 (28:28):
Yeah, I believe that human connection still matters in healthcare,
both the human connection the empathy piece. I don't think
the jobs are necessarily going to be replaced with AI,
but AI is being used to augment and support these
healthcare workers who are generally an overworked and burnt out workforce.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Do you see eventually a day I'm going to just
go there?
Speaker 2 (28:47):
You know, as we continue to see like humanoids and robotics,
but a combination of robots with some AI and somehow
having a role.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
When it comes to American healthcare.
Speaker 9 (28:57):
Absolutely, I mean, we launched two AI agents, one named
Gail and one name Lynd.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
Gail is a.
Speaker 9 (29:03):
Career partner for healthcare workers, a lifelong career partner that
helps them generate resumes, that helps them with interview preparation,
helps them do MALK interviews, and over ninety percent of
nurses give it a thumbs up in terms of giving
it having a great experience, as well as referring it
to their friends. And then also Lynn is another AI
agent we have which is a co pilot for the
hiring teams. And so Lynn is now interviewing healthcare workers
(29:27):
and is selling them on the organization, discussing multiple jobs
with them and really sharing what's amazing about specific employers.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Oh what I really mean, just got about thirty seconds
the idea of an actual robot with AI and learning
and in a hospital helping out.
Speaker 9 (29:43):
I mean absolutely, I mean I think the future that's
where we're all headed, not just in.
Speaker 3 (29:47):
Healthcare, probably in other industries too.
Speaker 2 (29:49):
No, not for journalists for broadcast. Good to catch up
with you, Thank you so much, and great to have
you in studio.
Speaker 9 (29:55):
Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (29:57):
Take care, Doctor Eymon Abbozage. She's kept founder, chief executive
officer of Incredible Health.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
Right here in studio.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
This is the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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(30:24):
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