Holiday Cheer Comes at a Premium in 2025

The cost of celebrating Christmas is climbing again. Now in its 42nd year, the PNC Christmas Price Index (PNC CPI) reveals that the cost of the gifts from the classic holiday carol "The Twelve Days of Christmas" has risen 4.5% compared to last year, outpacing the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (BLS CPI) October year-over-year reading of 3.0%. The PNC CPI, launched in 1984, is a light-hearted take on the BLS CPI and measures the change in prices consumers could expect to pay for True Love's gifts.

Amanda Agati, Chief Investment Officer with PNC Asset Management Group, breaks down the latest data explaining what Christmas really costs American consumers in 2025. Amanda speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and
tim Stenoveek on Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Hey, we've been talking about this all day. Yeah, the
economic data that we are are not getting.

Speaker 3 (00:19):
Well, we're going to get a read on inflation on Thursday, right,
and so one of the ways we have some fun
every holiday season is figuring out what the cost of
the twelve days of Christmas are.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
So the reason we're talking about this is because it's
just one read on inflation. Another read is what Carol mentioned,
PNC's Christmas Price Index, the bank has been doing for
forty two years. We've got Amanda Gatti with US, chief
Investment Officer at PNC Asset Management Group. She joins us
from Philadelphia. So, Amanda, is it more expensive than it
was last year?

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Let's like, what's the headline here?

Speaker 4 (00:51):
It's almost always more expensive. Thanks guys so much for
having me. On a year over year basis, the Christmas
Price Index as upzero point five percent, so we are
handily outpacing the BLSCPI version. So it's gonna cost true
love this holiday season? All right?

Speaker 3 (01:09):
So wait, what's costing us more.

Speaker 4 (01:13):
Well, sadly, I mean, we talk about this every year,
but sadly, my all time favorite gift is actually the
biggest mover by far. So five golden rings. Do I
have to elaborate on that.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
Gold was an outperforming acid?

Speaker 2 (01:28):
Nobody asked for five crypto rings Bitcoin, No.

Speaker 4 (01:31):
They didn't, although they would have done okay for at
least part of the year. But the five golden rings
weren't up as much as the price of gold itself,
still up a very hot thirty two and a half percent.
It's really very much a reflection of what we think
is a little bit of a margin squeeze right late
innings of the cycle. Still positive growth story for the economy,

(01:52):
but margin pressures are building, and so we are seeing
that in the price of the golden rings being passed
through or maybe not quite fully passed through this holiday season.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
Okay, so those are the golden rings. What else was
what's the second most expense? Not most expensive, but the
thing that went up the second most.

Speaker 4 (02:10):
Pear tree really is which which nobody wants? A partridge? Okay,
So the partridge was flat on a year over year
basis not a gift.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
That's not a gift that keeps on giving.

Speaker 4 (02:22):
The tree is it's an awful lot of work. But
the pear tree is what we refer to as a
proxy for housing costs. And so when we think about
housing and the housing market in this country, clearly running
pretty hot on a relative basis year over year, affordability
getting kind of challenged, right, Even though mortgage rates have

(02:44):
come down some, it hasn't made a huge difference in
terms of UH supply and demand and inventory levels. We're
still very short housing stock. So pear tree also running
hot on a year over year basis.

Speaker 3 (02:57):
Also performers, right, I mean the cost of labor. I
guess you could kind of say.

Speaker 4 (03:02):
Well, it's sometimes it is the cost of labor. Sometimes
it's contractual escalators. This year, the big one is the
ten Lords of Leaping. And I've been having fun all
year talking about this one because Oasis has been the
hottest concert ticket in town. You could refer them as
the Lords of rock perhaps, But so this is the

(03:23):
real world concert tickets experiences demand driving up those ten Lords.

Speaker 1 (03:28):
How do you measure that just on a on a
basis like are you just looking at an oasis? Are
you looking at everybody?

Speaker 3 (03:34):
No?

Speaker 4 (03:34):
I'm teasing. I just it's fun to try, guess. I mean.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
Went to an Oasis concert. At two Oasis concerts, I
know one of them. Where did you go? Tell you
our producers? Yes, Scotland in LA. She traveled all the
way for Oasis from New York.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
Like, so there's some.

Speaker 4 (03:51):
Amazing Yeah, absolutely, as am I. But I don't have
ten lords laying around here. So we do our best
to try and talk to dance companies and theater companies
on a year over year basis. There's a method to
this scientific madness, and so I'm just trying to make
it a little bit relatable. The lords of all the

(04:12):
performers were the biggest standout on a year of your basis,
so naturally it must be the Oasis effect.

Speaker 3 (04:17):
If only I had ten lords a leaping just hanging
around somewhere, just kidding, just kidding. Hey, what stayed the same?
Or did anything go down?

Speaker 4 (04:26):
Almost nothing goes down. Let's get real here, I would
love to say, aside from the pandemic, when we had
to shut the lights off on a lot of the
performers and experiences just as a function of what was
happening in the real world economy, a number of gifts
did stay flat on a year over your basis, so
two turtle doves, three French hens, four calling birds, the

(04:50):
seven swans, the eight maids. So there was a decent
amount of stability on a year over year basis, but
some pretty significant moves in the top three or four
on a year of your basis.

Speaker 2 (05:01):
How does this? I mean?

Speaker 1 (05:02):
Look, we're you know, this is fun, and we do
this because it's fun, but it's also does give us
an opportunity to talk about the real world inflation that
we're seeing and also real world asset price movements, Amanda.
As Carol mentioned, we're getting some data this week, partial
data when it comes to CPI. Some of it will
be incomplete, some of it will be old, of course,
But overall the index it moved more than headline figures.

(05:27):
When it comes to CPI.

Speaker 4 (05:30):
It sure didn't. That's not always the case. But you
have to think about the gifts in the Christmas Price
Index as a very specialty gift basket of goods and services,
so it's not really a reflection of the broad economy
and the US consumer in total. It tends to lean
higher end in terms of the spectrum there, but I

(05:50):
think it is a good indicator for what some of
the pricing trends may look like this holiday season. So
the consumer is definitely hanging in there. On a relative basis,
we definitely see consumers continuing to spend, and retail sales
data continues to look solid. Holiday shopping looks good, but
it's definitely going to cost consumers this holiday season.

Speaker 3 (06:12):
Yeah, what's the next I'm curious about what data points
you're kind of keeping an eye on to get an
idea of what happens maybe in the first half of
twenty twenty six, or is it too soon to kind
of make a bet on anything we see over the
next couple of weeks.

Speaker 4 (06:27):
Well, I don't know if it's too soon necessarily to
bet on it. I think the challenge is that some
of the data is stale, so it's hard to extrapolate
a trend from data points that are old or maybe incomplete.
So as it relates to consumer health, and we're obviously
focused on how the holiday shopping season plays out, retail

(06:47):
sales data, savings rates, even just consumer sentiment, there's a
number of other components and indicators that we can use
to gauge the success of this this holiday season and
perhaps even the market path forward in the new year.

Speaker 2 (07:02):
So good shape. We're in good shape.

Speaker 4 (07:06):
I think we're in good shape.

Speaker 2 (07:07):
Okay, yeah, unless you we're gonna.

Speaker 3 (07:09):
Golden rings, or you're getting ten Lords of Leaping, or
unless you pipers.

Speaker 1 (07:14):
Might not be, might.

Speaker 4 (07:16):
Not be in good shape. But the rest of us
are in good shape.

Speaker 2 (07:19):
You're in good shape.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
Unless you're looking for Owaisis tickets because apparently they're not
boring anymore.

Speaker 2 (07:24):
So that's it.