January 2, 2026 • 32 mins
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani rescinded all executive orders issued by his predecessor over the last 15 months as part of a flurry of actions as the city’s new leader took office Jan. 1.
The directive revoked all executive orders former mayor Eric Adams had issued since Sept. 26, 2024, the day he was indicted on federal corruption charges. Those charges were later dropped by the Justice Department under President Donald Trump. Mamdani’s action is designed to ensure “a fresh start for the incoming administration,” the mayor’s office said in a statement.
Among the orders revoked were two controversial items, including one that barred certain city officials from engaging in procurement practices “that discriminate against the State of Israel, Israeli citizens, or those associated with Israel.” It also outlined similar guidance for city pension officials to prohibit divesting from Israel-related holdings.
An earlier action, adopted in June, codified a broad definition of antisemitism, which some opponents said conflated criticism of Israel’s government with prejudice against Jews. Adams maintained both orders were intended to support the city’s Jewish community, though others argued the more recent action was intended to undermine Mamdani’s term. Mamdani has been a vocal critic of Israel’s government and has supported the “Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions” movement.
Today's show features:
- Bloomberg News New York City and State Reporter Laura Nahmias on New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's series of executive orders to begin his term
- Maribel Lopez, Founder & Enterprise AI Analyst at Lopez Research, and Carolina Milanesi, President and Principal Analyst at Creative Strategies, on what to expect at CES 2026
- David Schassler, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at VanEck Funds, on the market outlook and the importance of gold to individual portfolios
- Ray Wang, CEO of Constellation Research and Co-Founder of AI Forum, and Bloomberg Tech Co-Host Ed Ludlow on Tesla ceding the title of world’s top seller of electric cars to China’s BYD
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine
that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies,
and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance
and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week
Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Hey, speaking of tech, the market's heightened focus on AI
is raising investors' hopes as consumer tech giants and watchers
and journalists everybody. I mean people are going from all
over the world to Las Vegas to go to CEES.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Formerly known as the Consumer.
Speaker 4 (00:48):
Electroduct Show your hand sanitizer.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yeah, I mean that is the most important thing to
bring the charging battery charging stuff you know for your phone,
and hand sanitizer because if you haven't gotten sick, you're
gonna get sick at CEES. I have bad news for
everybody joining us live to set us up for the event.
Marabel Lopez, founder an enterprise AI analyst at Mopez Research
in Carolina, Milan AC President and principal Analystic Creative Strategy.
(01:12):
It's's great to have you both with us. Carol mentioned
bring this, bring this hand sanitizer. Both of you know
that at this point by this time going to CEES, Carolyne,
I want to start with you because there's always a.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Theme at CES.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
I mean when I went years ago, it was like
this was before the Apple Watch came out, so everyone
was talking about wearables, and the year before that was
you know, the Internet of Things that was going to
change everything.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Is it just AI this year? Is that what it is?
Speaker 5 (01:37):
Sadly so in so many different ways, but AI is
going to be everywhere, whether we're talking about AI in
cars and how that is helped with EV and self driving,
or are we talking about the start of humanoids taking
over our work home or in factorism From a consumer perspective,
(01:58):
you know, who doesn't want somebody to do the dishes
for you? And then AI from health perspective, so more
applications that will use sensors and drive data to offer
a more personal experiencing whatever device are you using. So yes,
AI overload for sure.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Marrabil com on in on the conversation as we get
ready for CEES and lots of stuff to flood the
Bloomberg in terms of announcements from different companies. What are
you watching out for?
Speaker 6 (02:30):
One of the things I think is really interesting and
currently it picked up on some of the great things
that we're looking at right now. I don't think those
things are different. We've always talked about automotive, We've always
talked about PCs. This year is going to be AIPCS again.
We had AIPCS last year. What I think is interesting
is theF The Consumer Electronics Show is so much of
an enterprise show right now. You have folks like Caterpillar,
(02:51):
you have folks like Demens, we're talking about humanoids. It's
the year of physical AI, in my opinion, where we
really start to see these robots to come in that
are for everything, as Carolina mentioned, from your household chores,
but we're going to see a lot in warehouse manufacturing, healthcare, hospitality.
So we're really starting to look for how that's actually
(03:13):
playing out in the market. It's a big chip show,
chips for everything, AI everywhere, AI and small devices, AI
and large devices. So that's pretty much the name of
the game here. Some software as well that we're going
to see around AI.
Speaker 7 (03:26):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
Marabel convinced me that this is not the start of
some dystopian horror flick where you know, we're all just
around our homes and we have these robots that are
Tim's been sick.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
A couple of days, there are a couple of weeks
now sitting on the cast.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
It could be the suit of that talking.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
I don't know, but I don't you know, do we
do these Do we want these robots in our homes
with us?
Speaker 6 (03:48):
So, first of all, and Caroline, I'm sure you have
a perspective on this as well. I still think we're
a long way from actually having the robots in the home.
You know, we've been talking about autonomous driving for a
long time and we're not all driving autonomous via right now.
But I do like directionly where we're going we have
across the globe. If you look at some of the
issues with age in Japan and needing to have cobots,
(04:08):
that's going to happen. I think we see these first
in the enterprise. They have to be proven out in
the enterprise because they have to be in environments where
they're not necessarily with humans until they can get everything right, because,
as you said, what could possibly go wrong with robots
running around? Right?
Speaker 4 (04:24):
Krolyna, You know what could possibly go wrong? But I
do think about you know, I let room toe into
my house. Now I look at it and it was
very primitive, and I know it's not really a company anymore,
But I do think about how we have easily kind
of given a lot of our world over to technology.
I don't carry cash anymore, so I am all in
on like a digital universe. Is that the same when
(04:47):
we think about humanoid robots? Are we going to be
as accepting?
Speaker 5 (04:52):
I think it's different, especially when you welcome some something
that looks more human into your home. Already with consumers,
there's a lot of sensitivity around cameras, for instance, in
the home, and when you start, you know, the room
is pretty harmless, right, what damage can it actually do?
(05:13):
Maybe polish your floors too much. But you know, when
you're actually talking about robots that have more cameras that
are eye level, that can freely roam around your room
and house with children involved or pets involved, I think
there's a security concern. There's a privacy concern, and we
(05:34):
don't know that the ROI is there yet, And I
think that's where from a consumer perspective, you always have
to balance. We are willing to give pretty much everything up.
Look at how much we put on social media and
then we spray in privacy, right, But we need to
have that return of investment, and I think that's the
part of it is still unclear.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
When does that become clear, Mirabelle.
Speaker 6 (05:59):
So from my perspective, I think first we have to
see this really proven out in commercial We have to
see it be able to work with humans and things
like factories before we put them into our home with
our pets and our children. As we mentioned, AA is
getting better, but we still have to get to the
point where it's not just the physicality of the robot,
(06:20):
it's the software, it's the feed of processing. It's a
price point issue. These are expensive. They're too expensive right
now for businesses to buy. So we're really not at
consumer great robots. And by the way, on that room,
but I've had many a cable that were chopped up
and placed uff.
Speaker 7 (06:36):
Quite a bit so down by them, dropped up by
the room.
Speaker 6 (06:41):
But they love cables and the next thing you know,
you were electronic devices are on the floor. So if
you're in a cable freehumeb.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Nobody's said these devices that actually get along with each other.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
I got to say, I know, I had some carpet
fringe that was chewed up a little bit, but I
was like, yeah, you know, if you're gonna vacuum gut,
you know there's got to be some problems here.
Speaker 7 (06:56):
I've got your return.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Exactly, exactly.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
Seriously, though, we've just got about two and a half
three minutes, Carolyn, let me start with you. I mean,
who will be the winners when we look at AI
and technology or things, maybe some tones or hints that
we might get out of cees that you think we
could be talking about a lot this year.
Speaker 5 (07:19):
We're definitely going to talk about AI throughout twenty twenty
six and years to come. This is not a trend
that is going to just vanish. This is something that
is going to be with us for a long time.
And for me, the winners from a company perspective, especially
when it comes to consumers, are the brands that are
not making trade offs and not using US consumers as
(07:42):
a byproduct of their success. So transparency when it comes
to AI is going to be critical because transparency is
going to drive engagement and trust, and without trust from
a consumer perspective, you're not going to get to what
you want from consumers, which is daily engaged, and that's what,
at the end of the day, is going to make
(08:03):
all the investments that we've seen for companies across deck worthwhile.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Mighty Bell, come on back in here. You cover enterprise
and focus more so on enterprise. What's your prediction for
enterprise tech that we're going to be talking about a
year from now that maybe not unveiled, but we'll be
talked about a lot at CEES.
Speaker 6 (08:22):
Well, actually, I still think we're in the picks and
shovels business with CES and with AI, so we're going
to hear a lot from the chip companies. Those chips
are going to go into everything, whether it's larger small,
as I mentioned earlier, So I think they're going to
be very successful over the next year. I think we're
you know, we've talked a lot about the AIPC, but
if we look at the things that you need to
actually make AI run in consumer of the devices, those
(08:43):
are the things we're going to be still talking about
that are successful. Of them are dead boring, you know,
their servers, their storage, their chips, but these are the
things that make the world go around right now, and
those companies will be the companies that are making the
announcements of things will actually to be deployed next year.
You know, well know with their AI factories. We've got
(09:04):
Jensen talking, We've got Lisa su talking from amd Qualcom.
Speaker 7 (09:08):
You know.
Speaker 6 (09:09):
So the chips, the servers, the storage, they're all going
to go into devices, and it's a matter of whether
or not they're larger small. So I think those are
the trends that are well not sexy. Are the things
that we're going to be talking about that has to
happen so that we can get to the next level
to actually make AI reality in people's homes.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Hey ten seconds, e I'm just curious if there's one
person or one company that you're going to be watching
this year watching out for. Who might it be? Marrabel
to you first ten seconds.
Speaker 6 (09:36):
I'm still watching Lisa too. I'm waiting to see if
she gives Jensen a full on run for his money.
Speaker 4 (09:41):
All right, interesting, Interesting, And Carolyne, the same question to you.
A person or company that you're going to be watching
very closely this year.
Speaker 5 (09:47):
I think in media, just because there's going to be
more challengers to them and so it's going to be
interesting to see how they're respond to the changing market.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
All right, she'd be an interesting one again. I can
say both of you, thank you so much. Happy New
yeark great to have you here both in this discussion.
Narra Mel Lopez, founder and enterprise AI analyst over at
Lopez Research in Carolina. Milaneuse, the president and principal analyst
at Creative Strategies, joining us here on this Friday.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Stay with us.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern.
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
I want to bring in Laura Namius. She covers New
York City and State for Bloomberg News. She joins us
from New York right now. Laura, what do you make
of both of these announcements? These executive orders, the Office
of Mass Engagement, the Mayor's Advisory Committee on the Judiciary leadership.
How is this helping Mayor Mom Donnie deliver on what
he promised during the campaign.
Speaker 8 (10:58):
Well, both of these are interesting, but for different reasons. First,
I should say, Mom Donnie has had a very busy
first day and a half in office. He's darting around
the city. He's issued five executive orders already before the
one that he's issuing now creating this office of Mass Engagement.
Speaker 7 (11:17):
But this is something that.
Speaker 8 (11:18):
Mayors do in different ways in my experience, in my observation,
try to find ways to stay connected to the people
who put them in office in the first place. Mam
Donnie's supporters and some political observers have said that Mam
Donnie needs to maintain a connection to the people who
put him in office, to the sort of grassroots support
(11:40):
that elevated him from a relative obscurity to becoming the
mayor of New York City. And it seems like the
creation of this office and the appointment of a woman
who is the architect of a lot of his his
virality and campaign engagement to lead that office is a
nod to that. The other announcement is really interesting and
(12:02):
I'm eager to hear more and learn more about it.
Speaker 7 (12:04):
Report more for.
Speaker 8 (12:04):
Us one of the last bastions of sort of non
competitive elections in New York City. I don't know if
our listeners or readers know about. This is the judiciary.
Maybe you've noticed on your ballot when you're filling it
out it says pick five candidates for judge, and there's
only five names available. It's a wonky to get into,
(12:25):
but it's not a competitive process, and it sort of
sounds like what Mom Donnie is doing here is appointing
mister Najmi to look into that, among other things, and
potentially address that in New York City and state politics.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
So maybe we'll actually have a choice.
Speaker 7 (12:43):
Maybe we'll actually have a choice.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
That would be nice, That would be nice. Well, as
you said, Laura, it's been a busy twenty four forty
eight hours for the new mayor of New York City,
and we of course will continue to monitor their press
event happening in downtown Brookline and certainly reported out as
we know you will be doing so throughout the year.
Laura Namious, New York Politics reporter at Bloomberg News. Laura,
(13:06):
thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play
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Speaker 4 (13:26):
So let's get to and see what our next guest
has to say, because he is thinking about a new
era defined by innovation and financial accountability and that there
are three key themes that investors should focus on here
in the new year. Let's dive into those themes with
David Schasler. He's head of multi Asset Solutions at Vanak Funds.
Hey David, good to have you here. Happy New Year,
(13:46):
Happy New Years.
Speaker 7 (13:47):
Thank you for having us.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Well, it's great to have you back here on Bloomberg.
So talk to us about this new era defined by
innovation and financial accountability. Are you talking about AI companies
that are getting lots of money and spending lots of
money but yet not making money? Are you talking about
something else?
Speaker 7 (14:02):
We're talking about a lot of things.
Speaker 9 (14:04):
Everybody's grounded if you just think about investing, people are
grounded in what they're used to, and they're used to
a pre twenty twenty world where debt doesn't matter, debth
sits doesn't matter, and you don't have this innovation that's
literally changing the world. And what we're talking about right
now is really setting up portfolios to thrive in that environment.
Speaker 7 (14:22):
And that's what I want to talk about, all.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
Right, So get into it and tell us in terms
of what that means for maybe market rotation companies that
we should have on our radar.
Speaker 7 (14:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (14:32):
So the first theme, obviously is AI technology automation. Got
it not really a new idea and people are probably
sick of hearing about it, but we're moving from phase
one phase two. Phase one, these scarcities were in the
compute and they were in the energy. We're now moving
to phase two, which is the adoption. That's investors looking
at and saying, how do I get paid back? How
(14:53):
do companies incorporate this technology to improve margins? That means
it's going to get order all at the same time
where competition is going to.
Speaker 7 (15:00):
Get a lot more fierce.
Speaker 9 (15:01):
What we're saying is you could still make money and
technology going to be a lot harder. In twenty twenty six.
We're overweight technology, but we're underweight the mag stock. So
that's the number one theme. Number two is the build.
How are we going to build it out and power it?
From an infrastructure perspective, so we're talking about infrastructure development.
How do you actually use old world assets to build
(15:21):
the new world or overweight real assets. And then the
third theme, third theme, if you don't own assets with
embedded scarcity, we're in a period of financial a bummance.
We're in a pear to financial access. We've been here
for a long time, but we're in a period now.
We're Accountability matters, debt matters, deficits matter, and you really
need to have assets with embedded scarcity. So when you
(15:43):
look at your portfolio, if you don't see gold in
your portfolio, we viewed that as financial malpractice.
Speaker 7 (15:49):
You must try out why gold is the ultimate store
value asset.
Speaker 9 (15:56):
It is the ultimate and original unit of out It
has outsurvived every FIAT experiment ever. And when you have
a system with so much debt, it's effectively acting as
a sponge absorbing with clarity. And as that continues to happen,
all roads lead to more money creation, more more financial stimus.
Speaker 7 (16:15):
More excess.
Speaker 9 (16:18):
Right, when you don't have a lot of good options
and you bet you've spent and borrowed so much, the
path forward becomes pretty obvious.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
Okay, so that's your view on gold. I mean, every
portfolio is different. But if you don't have. You argue,
if you don't have gold in your portfolio, it's financial malpractice.
How much gold should people have?
Speaker 7 (16:35):
Five percent? So we're not talking about betting the ranch
on it.
Speaker 9 (16:38):
We're just saying that when you look at your asset allocation,
you should have stocks, you should have bonds, you should
have real assets, and you should have assets.
Speaker 7 (16:45):
With scarcity, and that's predominantly gold.
Speaker 9 (16:48):
But I'd also argue as well, one to two percent
bitcoin makes sense as well.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
I want to go back to gold because if you
go back to the late eighties, early nineties, all the
way to looking at a chart, folks, I am two
thousand and four. I mean, it's like a straight line.
I mean, we know gold went nowhere for so long.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
And look at silver.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
What Mike mcgloder reminded us, it took fifty years for
silver to actually move right.
Speaker 4 (17:11):
So I'm just curious, I mean, why do you think
now it must be a part of your portfolio, because
who's to say it's maybe just had an unusual run
up in the last year or so, and that maybe
that's not going to continue. Maybe that's the anomaly.
Speaker 9 (17:26):
So if you just stack, if you just take a
step back and you look at asset classes over extended
periods of time. You've got equities of the top performing asset,
followed by gold, and then you can go into bonds
and you go into commodities. And gold has historically been
a strong store value asset and it's performed very, very well.
The average annualized return if you go back fifty sixty years.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
Or somewhere around eight percent.
Speaker 9 (17:48):
Now, there's certain periods of the time when it really
comes to life and out performance there's up over sixty
percent twenty twenty five. We're not saying that twenty twenty
six is going to look like twenty twenty five, but
we still think it's going to be a strong performing asset.
It's an asset if you look at it, given the
issues that we're facing as investors, it's well suited to
(18:08):
protect you.
Speaker 7 (18:08):
So we're not.
Speaker 9 (18:09):
Saying that gold is the only thing that you own.
But if you look at your portfolio and you wanted
to diversify and well balanced asset allocation, how could you
omit it entirely? That's where our pushback.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Is, Okay, are you convinced?
Speaker 4 (18:24):
I don't know, I mean I feel like we are,
you know, I hate to say it's different this time around,
or we're living in unusual times, but I do agree
with you, David, that at some point governments and the
deficits that they have it's going to matter.
Speaker 7 (18:35):
We will.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
But we've heard about that forever and then it's never.
When does it matter?
Speaker 4 (18:39):
You know, we'll see, right, the environment's going to matter?
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Right?
Speaker 4 (18:43):
If the US government is spending a lot more on interest,
I mean that's a problem.
Speaker 9 (18:48):
It's been mattering post twenty twenty. We've had persistently elevated inflation.
During that period, we've had a stealth bill market in
real assets. Gold has really come to life. We came
out early last year with a price target of of
five thousand dollars in gold bullion. We said twelve to
eighteen months, and we think we're on target for them.
We think gold hits five thousand dollars sometime in twenty
(19:09):
twenty six and goes beyond that. It's not going to
go up in a straight line, and it shouldn't go
up as much as it did in twenty twenty five.
But we think that the bull market in gold, as
well as the bull market in real assets, is going
to continue for an extended period of time based off
of the historical spending that we've done here and spending
required needed to facilitate this CAPEX build out for the
(19:32):
on shoring as well as the infrastructure build that need
to support AI and other technology.
Speaker 3 (19:36):
We were just showing everybody watching TV the forty year
chart of gold, and you know a big part of
that was what happened twenty twelve to what twenty twenty,
which was that gold went down and kind of did
nothing and it took eight years to get back to
those twenty twelve levels. Hey, Dave, before we let you go,
give us your bitcoins, give us the bitcoin skeptic view.
That's a forty year. That's a forty year. Yeah, what
(20:00):
do you or the view on bitcoin? Convince us and
convince the skeptics rather that you should have at least
one or two percent of your portfolio allocated to bitcoin.
I mean, this is a year where it fell six
and a half percent, down roughly thirty percent from those
all time highs.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
What's what's your conviction?
Speaker 9 (20:16):
Our view on bitcoin is that it is very similar
as a store value asset to gold. It has the
same embedded characteristics and predominantly the scarcity.
Speaker 7 (20:25):
That allow it to be a store of value asset.
Speaker 9 (20:27):
That being said, it's a highly differentiated asset relative to
gold and every other asset out there. Our view on bitcoin,
it's now maturing. It's a teenager at this point. It's
underperformed significantly, right, It's done around six percent in twenty
twenty five, underperformed goal by about seventy percent, so a
huge dislocation. Underperformed technology stops by about thirty.
Speaker 7 (20:47):
Percent, So we very much look at.
Speaker 9 (20:48):
It as a coiled spring going into the next year.
It's outperformed most other asset classes in most of its
years of existence, so purely based off of relative mean
re version, we expect to be a catch up trade.
But more importantly, the winds that's back because of that
embeds scarcely and as we think the financial conditions become
more easy in twenty twenty six, we think that bitcoin's
(21:11):
going to rally later in a later part of here.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
Okay, we'll have to get you back on the program, David,
to check in with that prediction. David Schastler, head of
multi asset solutions over at van K Funds.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Stay with us.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
We want to talk a little bit about what's going on,
particularly when it comes to Tesla, because I have the
times changed. China's bid overtook Tesla as the world's top
EV maker, a company that Elon Musk wants dismissed as
competition in a twenty eleven interview with Bloomberg. You don't
see them at all as a competitor.
Speaker 6 (22:06):
No, why is that?
Speaker 8 (22:07):
I mean they offer a lower price point.
Speaker 7 (22:10):
I don't think they have a great product.
Speaker 10 (22:13):
Why is it? I don't think it's particularly attractive. That
technology is not very strong, and byd as a company
has pretty severe problems in their home too in China,
So I think their focus is unrightly should be on
making sure they don't die in China.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
All right.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
That was Elon Musk in an interview that was back
in twenty eleven. We should point out that he made
some cupments again on bid that was in May of
twenty twenty three a post On X and he said,
in reference to that twenty eleven click, that was many
years ago. Their cars, BID's cars are highly competitive these days,
so he's changed his tune a little bit. But you know,
there's a rivalry, no doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
I think that's fair to say.
Speaker 5 (22:52):
I think that's fair to say.
Speaker 4 (22:53):
Let's see what Bloomberg Technology co host ed Ludlow. Bloomberg Tech,
who host ed Ludlow, has to say he joins us
from out there on the West coast. Also on the
West Coast, Ray Wang, he's the CEO of Constellation Research
and co founder of AI Forum. Hello, gentlemen, Happy new
year to both of you. But Ed, let's kick it
off with you. Twenty eleven a long time ago, right,
(23:14):
And Elon then came out and said, Okay, they've got
some pretty cool stuff. What's going on with the ev race?
I mean, is it just a case that Elon's got
a lot more competition today.
Speaker 11 (23:24):
It's interesting because they actually both suffer from the same
counter forces at the moment.
Speaker 7 (23:29):
You know.
Speaker 11 (23:29):
The headline is that on an annualized basis for the year,
BYD sold more electric vehicles around the world than Tesla did.
But we're talking about pure one hundred percent battery electric
because BYD also does hybrids, Tesla does not. So BYD
hit two point twenty six million pure battery evs Tesla
did one point six to four million in China. They're
(23:51):
both facing a very aggressive competitive field. Jaomi ex pong
g Li is right behind by in the number two slot,
and China, just like in the United States, is rolling
back incentives. The main point of difference being BYD doesn't
sell cars in America, so Tesla's got to take all
(24:12):
of that in aggregate. And look at the European market too,
where there's evidence that Musk's political activities earlier in twenty
twenty five weighed on demand as well.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
So is it you know, I think about ed how
Elon thinks about this. I mean, he still has a
very viable business right when it comes to evs.
Speaker 7 (24:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 11 (24:34):
In the third quarter of twenty twenty four, Musk said that,
you know, his kind of best prediction was that Tesla's
growth would be about twenty five to thirty percent in
twenty twenty five. In the end it was down almost
nine percent. And he put that on the idea that
they would have new affordable versions of the Model three
and Model why they did Partly there is just macro
(24:55):
weakness in evs in America, and partly you know this.
This is not a stock or company where the valuation
lies in the bread and butter business. Anyway, the final
thing I leave you with on that though, is do
remember that the board has set Elon Musk and mandatory
goal of delivering twenty million evs over the course of
the next ten years. And if he doesn't do that,
he won't realize his full compensation or voting rights reward,
(25:19):
and so it's still incumbent on him to focus on it,
even if to his mind the future is robotaxi and
humanoid robots.
Speaker 10 (25:25):
Ray.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
I want to bring you in here because you spend
a lot of time traveling around the world. I mean,
you were just telling us a few minutes ago of
what your next few weeks look like, and you're going
to be traveling all over so you see the way
that bid cars are all over Europe at this point
in your view, can Tesla compete outside of the United
States with byd reminder everybody, you can't buy a bid
here in the US.
Speaker 12 (25:47):
I think Tesla can't compete in a market where they
don't have tarifs, and I think the reason is, as
Ed knows, I mean, you're basically producing cars at ten
thousand dollars a unit, We're producing them at twenty three
thousand dollars a unit.
Speaker 7 (25:58):
That's really the problem. Our cars are way too expensive.
Speaker 12 (26:01):
And the vertical integration that BID has from supply chain
all the way out to a dealership in Europe. I mean,
it's something that Tesla hasn't been able to replicate. So
it'd be very very hard in general without taris for
Tesla to survive, or for the German automakers to survive
in Europe as well without any kind of tariffs. So
it's going to be interesting to see what the global
response to China will be for all the dumping of
(26:23):
vehicles EV vehicles going on into Europe and Asia.
Speaker 11 (26:27):
The only thing I would throw in, guys is the
data point I found most interesting noting that BYD also
sells hybrids, but a million of the vehicles it's sold
were outside of China, so to raise point. But the
Tesla response to that would be that they built this
facility in Germany and that they always wanted to have
manufacturing within the market that they sell their vehicles at.
(26:49):
But Europe's not exactly the same cost basis as China either,
so they're kind of stuck in that.
Speaker 7 (26:53):
Regard, right.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
So they have China, they have Fremont, they have Austin,
they have Germany, but they sell it a lot more
than just those Hey ray to that point, in your view,
has Tesla diversified enough away from autos with self driving,
with the software as a subscription, with other initiatives that
it's doing, like Optimist in the future to make it
(27:17):
a company that is worth buying in your view.
Speaker 7 (27:21):
Definitely a company worth buying short term. It's really on
the energy side.
Speaker 12 (27:24):
They did twelve point five gigle wht hours of energy
deployment in Q three and thirteen point four and Q four,
so people are definitely buying the megapacks.
Speaker 7 (27:32):
So that's your short term.
Speaker 12 (27:33):
The midterm is really going to be how the robotaxis
turn out, and that's going to be an interesting conversation,
but the incentives are put in place by the board
as Ed was saying there, and then longer term is
really optimist on the robots. Midterm two is also grock
depending how you look at that, how GROCK and the
physical AI and the and all the software side comes together.
(27:53):
But this is really the challenge is how do you
run multiple product lines and be able to focus and
deliver at scale when you have operators in China that
operate on one area focus with massive skill and so
in the long run, I think Tesla becomes a company
that builds the robots to build the cars and build
everything else and less so on the car and automobile side.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
But I do think that that maybe running multiple businesses
is Elon's secret. Sauce ed. This is a company and
an individual you've been following for a long time, whether
it's energy deployment, whether it's robots, whether it's GROC. I mean,
this is a guy who seems to thrive on doing
a lot.
Speaker 11 (28:31):
Yeah, there's nothing in the compensation package, which was ratified
via vestas that limits or stops Elon Musk being at
the helm of multiple companies. There is no suggestion that
he stops being the CEO of SpaceX when it goes
public in the middle of next year, for example. There
is a lot of interplay between those companies, but he's
very clear, as we wrote about in Business Week in
(28:51):
August right on the front cover. There is a reason
that they're not under one umbrella, and that is largely
the regulatory headache that that would bring to Elon Musk.
It's okay to run them as separate companies to Musk's mind,
where they kind of have close relationships, but they are
distinct and separate. And you either do or you don't
accept the future vision, which is Tesla doesn't focus on
(29:12):
selling cars to consumers. It runs a proprietary ride hailing
service with various formats of robotaxi, and it does sell
to the general population a fleet of humanoid robots. And
if you do or don't accept that, that's down to you.
Speaker 4 (29:27):
Hey, well, can I go as far? And to ask you,
do you think Elon or Tesla is moving on from
EVS at some point?
Speaker 11 (29:34):
But this is why you have to go with just
the facts. And what is ratified in the compackage is
that Elon Musk is required it is mandatory to sell
twenty million vehicles over a ten year period. So once
you got to average per quarter in per annum, you
know right now he's not tracking to reach that goal.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
Hey, Ray, before we let you go, and I want
to hopefully we'll get time with both of you on
this talk a little bit about SpaceX and what an
IPO for twenty twenty six looks like for SpaceX, specifically
Starlink's business ray just from your analysts perspective, how does
that business look on its own?
Speaker 12 (30:09):
Oh, I mean, the Starlink side of the house is
growing crazy. They've got the commercial pieces. You've seen the
partnerships with companies like United Airlines. You also see the
commercial residential piece picking up as people are buying them
across the board. But it's more than that, it's they're profitable.
Right this is one of Elon's profitable companies. It's going
to be potentially anywhere from one point two to one
point five trillion dollar IPO. And Starlink has got eight
(30:33):
and a half million subscribers right now. I'm going to
about ten million by the mid next year. So this
is something that is probably one of the most valuable
assets with the Elon's.
Speaker 3 (30:42):
Jump on in here because you and the team have
been the ones reporting all the exclusive details on a potential.
Speaker 7 (30:46):
Time right here.
Speaker 11 (30:48):
The only thing I'd add is the reason they want
to raise thirty to four billion dollars is they know
they need to buy GPUs for their plans for space
based data center and I think we'll have all year
long to talk about the idea of data centers in space.
Speaker 7 (31:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
Mark com Bluff laughed at me when I asked him
about data centers in space just a few minutes ago.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
There's enough of stuff up there.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
And he said, we still, Yeah, there's enough stuff up there,
and we got plenty of room down here and plenty
of solar power coming to the that comes to the
Earth to power data centers.
Speaker 12 (31:15):
Well, Jake, Japan just had that thing where they're able
to actually generate power in space and bring it down.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
I think there's like an article about that.
Speaker 4 (31:21):
Fascinating stuff.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
No shortage, no shortage of what we're going to be
talking about with both of you. Ray Wang, CEO of
Constellation Research, co founder of AI Forum, and also of
course Ed Ludlow of Bloomberg Technology.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday
afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube
(31:53):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine
that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies,
and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance
and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week
Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Hey, speaking of tech, the market's heightened focus on AI
is raising investors' hopes as consumer tech giants and watchers
and journalists everybody. I mean people are going from all
over the world to Las Vegas to go to CEES.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Formerly known as the Consumer.
Speaker 4 (00:48):
Electroduct Show your hand sanitizer.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yeah, I mean that is the most important thing to
bring the charging battery charging stuff you know for your phone,
and hand sanitizer because if you haven't gotten sick, you're
gonna get sick at CEES. I have bad news for
everybody joining us live to set us up for the event.
Marabel Lopez, founder an enterprise AI analyst at Mopez Research
in Carolina, Milan AC President and principal Analystic Creative Strategy.
(01:12):
It's's great to have you both with us. Carol mentioned
bring this, bring this hand sanitizer. Both of you know
that at this point by this time going to CEES, Carolyne,
I want to start with you because there's always a.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Theme at CES.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
I mean when I went years ago, it was like
this was before the Apple Watch came out, so everyone
was talking about wearables, and the year before that was
you know, the Internet of Things that was going to
change everything.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Is it just AI this year? Is that what it is?
Speaker 5 (01:37):
Sadly so in so many different ways, but AI is
going to be everywhere, whether we're talking about AI in
cars and how that is helped with EV and self driving,
or are we talking about the start of humanoids taking
over our work home or in factorism From a consumer perspective,
(01:58):
you know, who doesn't want somebody to do the dishes
for you? And then AI from health perspective, so more
applications that will use sensors and drive data to offer
a more personal experiencing whatever device are you using. So yes,
AI overload for sure.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Marrabil com on in on the conversation as we get
ready for CEES and lots of stuff to flood the
Bloomberg in terms of announcements from different companies. What are
you watching out for?
Speaker 6 (02:30):
One of the things I think is really interesting and
currently it picked up on some of the great things
that we're looking at right now. I don't think those
things are different. We've always talked about automotive, We've always
talked about PCs. This year is going to be AIPCS again.
We had AIPCS last year. What I think is interesting
is theF The Consumer Electronics Show is so much of
an enterprise show right now. You have folks like Caterpillar,
(02:51):
you have folks like Demens, we're talking about humanoids. It's
the year of physical AI, in my opinion, where we
really start to see these robots to come in that
are for everything, as Carolina mentioned, from your household chores,
but we're going to see a lot in warehouse manufacturing, healthcare, hospitality.
So we're really starting to look for how that's actually
(03:13):
playing out in the market. It's a big chip show,
chips for everything, AI everywhere, AI and small devices, AI
and large devices. So that's pretty much the name of
the game here. Some software as well that we're going
to see around AI.
Speaker 7 (03:26):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
Marabel convinced me that this is not the start of
some dystopian horror flick where you know, we're all just
around our homes and we have these robots that are
Tim's been sick.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
A couple of days, there are a couple of weeks
now sitting on the cast.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
It could be the suit of that talking.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
I don't know, but I don't you know, do we
do these Do we want these robots in our homes
with us?
Speaker 6 (03:48):
So, first of all, and Caroline, I'm sure you have
a perspective on this as well. I still think we're
a long way from actually having the robots in the home.
You know, we've been talking about autonomous driving for a
long time and we're not all driving autonomous via right now.
But I do like directionly where we're going we have
across the globe. If you look at some of the
issues with age in Japan and needing to have cobots,
(04:08):
that's going to happen. I think we see these first
in the enterprise. They have to be proven out in
the enterprise because they have to be in environments where
they're not necessarily with humans until they can get everything right, because,
as you said, what could possibly go wrong with robots
running around? Right?
Speaker 4 (04:24):
Krolyna, You know what could possibly go wrong? But I
do think about you know, I let room toe into
my house. Now I look at it and it was
very primitive, and I know it's not really a company anymore,
But I do think about how we have easily kind
of given a lot of our world over to technology.
I don't carry cash anymore, so I am all in
on like a digital universe. Is that the same when
(04:47):
we think about humanoid robots? Are we going to be
as accepting?
Speaker 5 (04:52):
I think it's different, especially when you welcome some something
that looks more human into your home. Already with consumers,
there's a lot of sensitivity around cameras, for instance, in
the home, and when you start, you know, the room
is pretty harmless, right, what damage can it actually do?
(05:13):
Maybe polish your floors too much. But you know, when
you're actually talking about robots that have more cameras that
are eye level, that can freely roam around your room
and house with children involved or pets involved, I think
there's a security concern. There's a privacy concern, and we
(05:34):
don't know that the ROI is there yet, And I
think that's where from a consumer perspective, you always have
to balance. We are willing to give pretty much everything up.
Look at how much we put on social media and
then we spray in privacy, right, But we need to
have that return of investment, and I think that's the
part of it is still unclear.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
When does that become clear, Mirabelle.
Speaker 6 (05:59):
So from my perspective, I think first we have to
see this really proven out in commercial We have to
see it be able to work with humans and things
like factories before we put them into our home with
our pets and our children. As we mentioned, AA is
getting better, but we still have to get to the
point where it's not just the physicality of the robot,
(06:20):
it's the software, it's the feed of processing. It's a
price point issue. These are expensive. They're too expensive right
now for businesses to buy. So we're really not at
consumer great robots. And by the way, on that room,
but I've had many a cable that were chopped up
and placed uff.
Speaker 7 (06:36):
Quite a bit so down by them, dropped up by
the room.
Speaker 6 (06:41):
But they love cables and the next thing you know,
you were electronic devices are on the floor. So if
you're in a cable freehumeb.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Nobody's said these devices that actually get along with each other.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
I got to say, I know, I had some carpet
fringe that was chewed up a little bit, but I
was like, yeah, you know, if you're gonna vacuum gut,
you know there's got to be some problems here.
Speaker 7 (06:56):
I've got your return.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Exactly, exactly.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
Seriously, though, we've just got about two and a half
three minutes, Carolyn, let me start with you. I mean,
who will be the winners when we look at AI
and technology or things, maybe some tones or hints that
we might get out of cees that you think we
could be talking about a lot this year.
Speaker 5 (07:19):
We're definitely going to talk about AI throughout twenty twenty
six and years to come. This is not a trend
that is going to just vanish. This is something that
is going to be with us for a long time.
And for me, the winners from a company perspective, especially
when it comes to consumers, are the brands that are
not making trade offs and not using US consumers as
(07:42):
a byproduct of their success. So transparency when it comes
to AI is going to be critical because transparency is
going to drive engagement and trust, and without trust from
a consumer perspective, you're not going to get to what
you want from consumers, which is daily engaged, and that's what,
at the end of the day, is going to make
(08:03):
all the investments that we've seen for companies across deck worthwhile.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Mighty Bell, come on back in here. You cover enterprise
and focus more so on enterprise. What's your prediction for
enterprise tech that we're going to be talking about a
year from now that maybe not unveiled, but we'll be
talked about a lot at CEES.
Speaker 6 (08:22):
Well, actually, I still think we're in the picks and
shovels business with CES and with AI, so we're going
to hear a lot from the chip companies. Those chips
are going to go into everything, whether it's larger small,
as I mentioned earlier, So I think they're going to
be very successful over the next year. I think we're
you know, we've talked a lot about the AIPC, but
if we look at the things that you need to
actually make AI run in consumer of the devices, those
(08:43):
are the things we're going to be still talking about
that are successful. Of them are dead boring, you know,
their servers, their storage, their chips, but these are the
things that make the world go around right now, and
those companies will be the companies that are making the
announcements of things will actually to be deployed next year.
You know, well know with their AI factories. We've got
(09:04):
Jensen talking, We've got Lisa su talking from amd Qualcom.
Speaker 7 (09:08):
You know.
Speaker 6 (09:09):
So the chips, the servers, the storage, they're all going
to go into devices, and it's a matter of whether
or not they're larger small. So I think those are
the trends that are well not sexy. Are the things
that we're going to be talking about that has to
happen so that we can get to the next level
to actually make AI reality in people's homes.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Hey ten seconds, e I'm just curious if there's one
person or one company that you're going to be watching
this year watching out for. Who might it be? Marrabel
to you first ten seconds.
Speaker 6 (09:36):
I'm still watching Lisa too. I'm waiting to see if
she gives Jensen a full on run for his money.
Speaker 4 (09:41):
All right, interesting, Interesting, And Carolyne, the same question to you.
A person or company that you're going to be watching
very closely this year.
Speaker 5 (09:47):
I think in media, just because there's going to be
more challengers to them and so it's going to be
interesting to see how they're respond to the changing market.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
All right, she'd be an interesting one again. I can
say both of you, thank you so much. Happy New
yeark great to have you here both in this discussion.
Narra Mel Lopez, founder and enterprise AI analyst over at
Lopez Research in Carolina. Milaneuse, the president and principal analyst
at Creative Strategies, joining us here on this Friday.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Stay with us.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern.
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
I want to bring in Laura Namius. She covers New
York City and State for Bloomberg News. She joins us
from New York right now. Laura, what do you make
of both of these announcements? These executive orders, the Office
of Mass Engagement, the Mayor's Advisory Committee on the Judiciary leadership.
How is this helping Mayor Mom Donnie deliver on what
he promised during the campaign.
Speaker 8 (10:58):
Well, both of these are interesting, but for different reasons. First,
I should say, Mom Donnie has had a very busy
first day and a half in office. He's darting around
the city. He's issued five executive orders already before the
one that he's issuing now creating this office of Mass Engagement.
Speaker 7 (11:17):
But this is something that.
Speaker 8 (11:18):
Mayors do in different ways in my experience, in my observation,
try to find ways to stay connected to the people
who put them in office in the first place. Mam
Donnie's supporters and some political observers have said that Mam
Donnie needs to maintain a connection to the people who
put him in office, to the sort of grassroots support
(11:40):
that elevated him from a relative obscurity to becoming the
mayor of New York City. And it seems like the
creation of this office and the appointment of a woman
who is the architect of a lot of his his
virality and campaign engagement to lead that office is a
nod to that. The other announcement is really interesting and
(12:02):
I'm eager to hear more and learn more about it.
Speaker 7 (12:04):
Report more for.
Speaker 8 (12:04):
Us one of the last bastions of sort of non
competitive elections in New York City. I don't know if
our listeners or readers know about. This is the judiciary.
Maybe you've noticed on your ballot when you're filling it
out it says pick five candidates for judge, and there's
only five names available. It's a wonky to get into,
(12:25):
but it's not a competitive process, and it sort of
sounds like what Mom Donnie is doing here is appointing
mister Najmi to look into that, among other things, and
potentially address that in New York City and state politics.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
So maybe we'll actually have a choice.
Speaker 7 (12:43):
Maybe we'll actually have a choice.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
That would be nice, That would be nice. Well, as
you said, Laura, it's been a busy twenty four forty
eight hours for the new mayor of New York City,
and we of course will continue to monitor their press
event happening in downtown Brookline and certainly reported out as
we know you will be doing so throughout the year.
Laura Namious, New York Politics reporter at Bloomberg News. Laura,
(13:06):
thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play
and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can
also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
York station. Just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
So let's get to and see what our next guest
has to say, because he is thinking about a new
era defined by innovation and financial accountability and that there
are three key themes that investors should focus on here
in the new year. Let's dive into those themes with
David Schasler. He's head of multi Asset Solutions at Vanak Funds.
Hey David, good to have you here. Happy New Year,
(13:46):
Happy New Years.
Speaker 7 (13:47):
Thank you for having us.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Well, it's great to have you back here on Bloomberg.
So talk to us about this new era defined by
innovation and financial accountability. Are you talking about AI companies
that are getting lots of money and spending lots of
money but yet not making money? Are you talking about
something else?
Speaker 7 (14:02):
We're talking about a lot of things.
Speaker 9 (14:04):
Everybody's grounded if you just think about investing, people are
grounded in what they're used to, and they're used to
a pre twenty twenty world where debt doesn't matter, debth
sits doesn't matter, and you don't have this innovation that's
literally changing the world. And what we're talking about right
now is really setting up portfolios to thrive in that environment.
Speaker 7 (14:22):
And that's what I want to talk about, all.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
Right, So get into it and tell us in terms
of what that means for maybe market rotation companies that
we should have on our radar.
Speaker 7 (14:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (14:32):
So the first theme, obviously is AI technology automation. Got
it not really a new idea and people are probably
sick of hearing about it, but we're moving from phase
one phase two. Phase one, these scarcities were in the
compute and they were in the energy. We're now moving
to phase two, which is the adoption. That's investors looking
at and saying, how do I get paid back? How
(14:53):
do companies incorporate this technology to improve margins? That means
it's going to get order all at the same time
where competition is going to.
Speaker 7 (15:00):
Get a lot more fierce.
Speaker 9 (15:01):
What we're saying is you could still make money and
technology going to be a lot harder. In twenty twenty six.
We're overweight technology, but we're underweight the mag stock. So
that's the number one theme. Number two is the build.
How are we going to build it out and power it?
From an infrastructure perspective, so we're talking about infrastructure development.
How do you actually use old world assets to build
(15:21):
the new world or overweight real assets. And then the
third theme, third theme, if you don't own assets with
embedded scarcity, we're in a period of financial a bummance.
We're in a pear to financial access. We've been here
for a long time, but we're in a period now.
We're Accountability matters, debt matters, deficits matter, and you really
need to have assets with embedded scarcity. So when you
(15:43):
look at your portfolio, if you don't see gold in
your portfolio, we viewed that as financial malpractice.
Speaker 7 (15:49):
You must try out why gold is the ultimate store
value asset.
Speaker 9 (15:56):
It is the ultimate and original unit of out It
has outsurvived every FIAT experiment ever. And when you have
a system with so much debt, it's effectively acting as
a sponge absorbing with clarity. And as that continues to happen,
all roads lead to more money creation, more more financial stimus.
Speaker 7 (16:15):
More excess.
Speaker 9 (16:18):
Right, when you don't have a lot of good options
and you bet you've spent and borrowed so much, the
path forward becomes pretty obvious.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
Okay, so that's your view on gold. I mean, every
portfolio is different. But if you don't have. You argue,
if you don't have gold in your portfolio, it's financial malpractice.
How much gold should people have?
Speaker 7 (16:35):
Five percent? So we're not talking about betting the ranch
on it.
Speaker 9 (16:38):
We're just saying that when you look at your asset allocation,
you should have stocks, you should have bonds, you should
have real assets, and you should have assets.
Speaker 7 (16:45):
With scarcity, and that's predominantly gold.
Speaker 9 (16:48):
But I'd also argue as well, one to two percent
bitcoin makes sense as well.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
I want to go back to gold because if you
go back to the late eighties, early nineties, all the
way to looking at a chart, folks, I am two
thousand and four. I mean, it's like a straight line.
I mean, we know gold went nowhere for so long.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
And look at silver.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
What Mike mcgloder reminded us, it took fifty years for
silver to actually move right.
Speaker 4 (17:11):
So I'm just curious, I mean, why do you think
now it must be a part of your portfolio, because
who's to say it's maybe just had an unusual run
up in the last year or so, and that maybe
that's not going to continue. Maybe that's the anomaly.
Speaker 9 (17:26):
So if you just stack, if you just take a
step back and you look at asset classes over extended
periods of time. You've got equities of the top performing asset,
followed by gold, and then you can go into bonds
and you go into commodities. And gold has historically been
a strong store value asset and it's performed very, very well.
The average annualized return if you go back fifty sixty years.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
Or somewhere around eight percent.
Speaker 9 (17:48):
Now, there's certain periods of the time when it really
comes to life and out performance there's up over sixty
percent twenty twenty five. We're not saying that twenty twenty
six is going to look like twenty twenty five, but
we still think it's going to be a strong performing asset.
It's an asset if you look at it, given the
issues that we're facing as investors, it's well suited to
(18:08):
protect you.
Speaker 7 (18:08):
So we're not.
Speaker 9 (18:09):
Saying that gold is the only thing that you own.
But if you look at your portfolio and you wanted
to diversify and well balanced asset allocation, how could you
omit it entirely? That's where our pushback.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Is, Okay, are you convinced?
Speaker 4 (18:24):
I don't know, I mean I feel like we are,
you know, I hate to say it's different this time around,
or we're living in unusual times, but I do agree
with you, David, that at some point governments and the
deficits that they have it's going to matter.
Speaker 7 (18:35):
We will.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
But we've heard about that forever and then it's never.
When does it matter?
Speaker 4 (18:39):
You know, we'll see, right, the environment's going to matter?
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Right?
Speaker 4 (18:43):
If the US government is spending a lot more on interest,
I mean that's a problem.
Speaker 9 (18:48):
It's been mattering post twenty twenty. We've had persistently elevated inflation.
During that period, we've had a stealth bill market in
real assets. Gold has really come to life. We came
out early last year with a price target of of
five thousand dollars in gold bullion. We said twelve to
eighteen months, and we think we're on target for them.
We think gold hits five thousand dollars sometime in twenty
(19:09):
twenty six and goes beyond that. It's not going to
go up in a straight line, and it shouldn't go
up as much as it did in twenty twenty five.
But we think that the bull market in gold, as
well as the bull market in real assets, is going
to continue for an extended period of time based off
of the historical spending that we've done here and spending
required needed to facilitate this CAPEX build out for the
(19:32):
on shoring as well as the infrastructure build that need
to support AI and other technology.
Speaker 3 (19:36):
We were just showing everybody watching TV the forty year
chart of gold, and you know a big part of
that was what happened twenty twelve to what twenty twenty,
which was that gold went down and kind of did
nothing and it took eight years to get back to
those twenty twelve levels. Hey, Dave, before we let you go,
give us your bitcoins, give us the bitcoin skeptic view.
That's a forty year. That's a forty year. Yeah, what
(20:00):
do you or the view on bitcoin? Convince us and
convince the skeptics rather that you should have at least
one or two percent of your portfolio allocated to bitcoin.
I mean, this is a year where it fell six
and a half percent, down roughly thirty percent from those
all time highs.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
What's what's your conviction?
Speaker 9 (20:16):
Our view on bitcoin is that it is very similar
as a store value asset to gold. It has the
same embedded characteristics and predominantly the scarcity.
Speaker 7 (20:25):
That allow it to be a store of value asset.
Speaker 9 (20:27):
That being said, it's a highly differentiated asset relative to
gold and every other asset out there. Our view on bitcoin,
it's now maturing. It's a teenager at this point. It's
underperformed significantly, right, It's done around six percent in twenty
twenty five, underperformed goal by about seventy percent, so a
huge dislocation. Underperformed technology stops by about thirty.
Speaker 7 (20:47):
Percent, So we very much look at.
Speaker 9 (20:48):
It as a coiled spring going into the next year.
It's outperformed most other asset classes in most of its
years of existence, so purely based off of relative mean
re version, we expect to be a catch up trade.
But more importantly, the winds that's back because of that
embeds scarcely and as we think the financial conditions become
more easy in twenty twenty six, we think that bitcoin's
(21:11):
going to rally later in a later part of here.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
Okay, we'll have to get you back on the program, David,
to check in with that prediction. David Schastler, head of
multi asset solutions over at van K Funds.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Stay with us.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
We want to talk a little bit about what's going on,
particularly when it comes to Tesla, because I have the
times changed. China's bid overtook Tesla as the world's top
EV maker, a company that Elon Musk wants dismissed as
competition in a twenty eleven interview with Bloomberg. You don't
see them at all as a competitor.
Speaker 6 (22:06):
No, why is that?
Speaker 8 (22:07):
I mean they offer a lower price point.
Speaker 7 (22:10):
I don't think they have a great product.
Speaker 10 (22:13):
Why is it? I don't think it's particularly attractive. That
technology is not very strong, and byd as a company
has pretty severe problems in their home too in China,
So I think their focus is unrightly should be on
making sure they don't die in China.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
All right.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
That was Elon Musk in an interview that was back
in twenty eleven. We should point out that he made
some cupments again on bid that was in May of
twenty twenty three a post On X and he said,
in reference to that twenty eleven click, that was many
years ago. Their cars, BID's cars are highly competitive these days,
so he's changed his tune a little bit. But you know,
there's a rivalry, no doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
I think that's fair to say.
Speaker 5 (22:52):
I think that's fair to say.
Speaker 4 (22:53):
Let's see what Bloomberg Technology co host ed Ludlow. Bloomberg Tech,
who host ed Ludlow, has to say he joins us
from out there on the West coast. Also on the
West Coast, Ray Wang, he's the CEO of Constellation Research
and co founder of AI Forum. Hello, gentlemen, Happy new
year to both of you. But Ed, let's kick it
off with you. Twenty eleven a long time ago, right,
(23:14):
And Elon then came out and said, Okay, they've got
some pretty cool stuff. What's going on with the ev race?
I mean, is it just a case that Elon's got
a lot more competition today.
Speaker 11 (23:24):
It's interesting because they actually both suffer from the same
counter forces at the moment.
Speaker 7 (23:29):
You know.
Speaker 11 (23:29):
The headline is that on an annualized basis for the year,
BYD sold more electric vehicles around the world than Tesla did.
But we're talking about pure one hundred percent battery electric
because BYD also does hybrids, Tesla does not. So BYD
hit two point twenty six million pure battery evs Tesla
did one point six to four million in China. They're
(23:51):
both facing a very aggressive competitive field. Jaomi ex pong
g Li is right behind by in the number two slot,
and China, just like in the United States, is rolling
back incentives. The main point of difference being BYD doesn't
sell cars in America, so Tesla's got to take all
(24:12):
of that in aggregate. And look at the European market too,
where there's evidence that Musk's political activities earlier in twenty
twenty five weighed on demand as well.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
So is it you know, I think about ed how
Elon thinks about this. I mean, he still has a
very viable business right when it comes to evs.
Speaker 7 (24:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 11 (24:34):
In the third quarter of twenty twenty four, Musk said that,
you know, his kind of best prediction was that Tesla's
growth would be about twenty five to thirty percent in
twenty twenty five. In the end it was down almost
nine percent. And he put that on the idea that
they would have new affordable versions of the Model three
and Model why they did Partly there is just macro
(24:55):
weakness in evs in America, and partly you know this.
This is not a stock or company where the valuation
lies in the bread and butter business. Anyway, the final
thing I leave you with on that though, is do
remember that the board has set Elon Musk and mandatory
goal of delivering twenty million evs over the course of
the next ten years. And if he doesn't do that,
he won't realize his full compensation or voting rights reward,
(25:19):
and so it's still incumbent on him to focus on it,
even if to his mind the future is robotaxi and
humanoid robots.
Speaker 10 (25:25):
Ray.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
I want to bring you in here because you spend
a lot of time traveling around the world. I mean,
you were just telling us a few minutes ago of
what your next few weeks look like, and you're going
to be traveling all over so you see the way
that bid cars are all over Europe at this point
in your view, can Tesla compete outside of the United
States with byd reminder everybody, you can't buy a bid
here in the US.
Speaker 12 (25:47):
I think Tesla can't compete in a market where they
don't have tarifs, and I think the reason is, as
Ed knows, I mean, you're basically producing cars at ten
thousand dollars a unit, We're producing them at twenty three
thousand dollars a unit.
Speaker 7 (25:58):
That's really the problem. Our cars are way too expensive.
Speaker 12 (26:01):
And the vertical integration that BID has from supply chain
all the way out to a dealership in Europe. I mean,
it's something that Tesla hasn't been able to replicate. So
it'd be very very hard in general without taris for
Tesla to survive, or for the German automakers to survive
in Europe as well without any kind of tariffs. So
it's going to be interesting to see what the global
response to China will be for all the dumping of
(26:23):
vehicles EV vehicles going on into Europe and Asia.
Speaker 11 (26:27):
The only thing I would throw in, guys is the
data point I found most interesting noting that BYD also
sells hybrids, but a million of the vehicles it's sold
were outside of China, so to raise point. But the
Tesla response to that would be that they built this
facility in Germany and that they always wanted to have
manufacturing within the market that they sell their vehicles at.
(26:49):
But Europe's not exactly the same cost basis as China either,
so they're kind of stuck in that.
Speaker 7 (26:53):
Regard, right.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
So they have China, they have Fremont, they have Austin,
they have Germany, but they sell it a lot more
than just those Hey ray to that point, in your view,
has Tesla diversified enough away from autos with self driving,
with the software as a subscription, with other initiatives that
it's doing, like Optimist in the future to make it
(27:17):
a company that is worth buying in your view.
Speaker 7 (27:21):
Definitely a company worth buying short term. It's really on
the energy side.
Speaker 12 (27:24):
They did twelve point five gigle wht hours of energy
deployment in Q three and thirteen point four and Q four,
so people are definitely buying the megapacks.
Speaker 7 (27:32):
So that's your short term.
Speaker 12 (27:33):
The midterm is really going to be how the robotaxis
turn out, and that's going to be an interesting conversation,
but the incentives are put in place by the board
as Ed was saying there, and then longer term is
really optimist on the robots. Midterm two is also grock
depending how you look at that, how GROCK and the
physical AI and the and all the software side comes together.
(27:53):
But this is really the challenge is how do you
run multiple product lines and be able to focus and
deliver at scale when you have operators in China that
operate on one area focus with massive skill and so
in the long run, I think Tesla becomes a company
that builds the robots to build the cars and build
everything else and less so on the car and automobile side.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
But I do think that that maybe running multiple businesses
is Elon's secret. Sauce ed. This is a company and
an individual you've been following for a long time, whether
it's energy deployment, whether it's robots, whether it's GROC. I mean,
this is a guy who seems to thrive on doing
a lot.
Speaker 11 (28:31):
Yeah, there's nothing in the compensation package, which was ratified
via vestas that limits or stops Elon Musk being at
the helm of multiple companies. There is no suggestion that
he stops being the CEO of SpaceX when it goes
public in the middle of next year, for example. There
is a lot of interplay between those companies, but he's
very clear, as we wrote about in Business Week in
(28:51):
August right on the front cover. There is a reason
that they're not under one umbrella, and that is largely
the regulatory headache that that would bring to Elon Musk.
It's okay to run them as separate companies to Musk's mind,
where they kind of have close relationships, but they are
distinct and separate. And you either do or you don't
accept the future vision, which is Tesla doesn't focus on
(29:12):
selling cars to consumers. It runs a proprietary ride hailing
service with various formats of robotaxi, and it does sell
to the general population a fleet of humanoid robots. And
if you do or don't accept that, that's down to you.
Speaker 4 (29:27):
Hey, well, can I go as far? And to ask you,
do you think Elon or Tesla is moving on from
EVS at some point?
Speaker 11 (29:34):
But this is why you have to go with just
the facts. And what is ratified in the compackage is
that Elon Musk is required it is mandatory to sell
twenty million vehicles over a ten year period. So once
you got to average per quarter in per annum, you
know right now he's not tracking to reach that goal.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
Hey, Ray, before we let you go, and I want
to hopefully we'll get time with both of you on
this talk a little bit about SpaceX and what an
IPO for twenty twenty six looks like for SpaceX, specifically
Starlink's business ray just from your analysts perspective, how does
that business look on its own?
Speaker 12 (30:09):
Oh, I mean, the Starlink side of the house is
growing crazy. They've got the commercial pieces. You've seen the
partnerships with companies like United Airlines. You also see the
commercial residential piece picking up as people are buying them
across the board. But it's more than that, it's they're profitable.
Right this is one of Elon's profitable companies. It's going
to be potentially anywhere from one point two to one
point five trillion dollar IPO. And Starlink has got eight
(30:33):
and a half million subscribers right now. I'm going to
about ten million by the mid next year. So this
is something that is probably one of the most valuable
assets with the Elon's.
Speaker 3 (30:42):
Jump on in here because you and the team have
been the ones reporting all the exclusive details on a potential.
Speaker 7 (30:46):
Time right here.
Speaker 11 (30:48):
The only thing I'd add is the reason they want
to raise thirty to four billion dollars is they know
they need to buy GPUs for their plans for space
based data center and I think we'll have all year
long to talk about the idea of data centers in space.
Speaker 7 (31:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
Mark com Bluff laughed at me when I asked him
about data centers in space just a few minutes ago.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
There's enough of stuff up there.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
And he said, we still, Yeah, there's enough stuff up there,
and we got plenty of room down here and plenty
of solar power coming to the that comes to the
Earth to power data centers.
Speaker 12 (31:15):
Well, Jake, Japan just had that thing where they're able
to actually generate power in space and bring it down.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
I think there's like an article about that.
Speaker 4 (31:21):
Fascinating stuff.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
No shortage, no shortage of what we're going to be
talking about with both of you. Ray Wang, CEO of
Constellation Research, co founder of AI Forum, and also of
course Ed Ludlow of Bloomberg Technology.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday
afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube
(31:53):
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