November 26, 2024 • 13 mins
Israel reached a deal for a 60-day cease-fire with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah after weeks of talks mediated by the US, a first step toward ending a conflict that’s killed thousands of people. For reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with Bloomberg National Security Team Leader Nick Wadhams and Bloomberg News Economy and Government reporter Galit Altstein.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Under the deal reached today, effective at four am tomorrow
local time, the fighting across the Celebanies Israeli border will end,
will end. This is designed to be a permanent cessation
of hostilities.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
What is left of.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Hesbalah and another terrorist organization will not be allowed.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
President Biden there in the Rose Garden at the White
House saying that Israel and Hesbela have agreed to a
cease fire deal. Giving his remarks on the Middle East conflict,
he says this ceasefire deal will last for sixty days.
He also went on to say that the people of
Gaza also deserve a cease fire deal, and he says
the only way out for Hamas is to release those
(00:51):
hostages that have been held in captivity. So a big day,
and we certainly heard earlier in the day from Prime
Minister Benjamin Notat in Yahoo said he would bring the
proposed ceasefire to a vote by his security cabinet.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
Yeah, that ceasefire, Lebanon ceasefire begins at four am local time.
For more, let's go to Bloomberg News. US National Security
Team Leader Nick Wadhams, who's standing by in Washington, DC. Nick,
good to have you joining us on this breaking news.
Help us understand where exactly this ceasefire, what part of
the war the ceasefire effects, and what part of the
war is still continuing to be ongoing.
Speaker 5 (01:24):
So there are essentially two fronts to this war. There's
Israel's battle with Hamas and the Gaza Strip, and then
resulting from that, after the attack by Hamas on October
seventh that provoked the Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip,
you've seen increasingly intense fire between Hesbela and Israel, and
in recent weeks that essentially turned into a full blown
war where you had Hesbelah launching missiles from Lebanon into Israel,
(01:48):
and you also had Israel widening the scope of a
pretty devastating campaign against Hesbolah in Lebanon, taking out many
of its top leaders and also striking targets in the
heart of Bay Root, essentially turning that city essentially into
a war zone. So that was where the Biden administration
and others such as France, which was also a sort
(02:09):
of handmade into this deal, found the prospect for an agreement,
and that's really where they focus. So what you see
today is the Biden administration getting that pause. Hopefully they
say it'll be much longer than a pause, It'll be
a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hesbalah. And then as
the President mentioned there, that would then in turn allow
(02:29):
for pressure to be put on Israel and Hamas to
get the much authority or agreement, which would be an
end to the violence in the Gaza strip. That's still
quite a long ways off, no indication that that would
be able to be completed by the end of Biden's
term and when President Elect Trump takes over.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Nick safe to say that the Israel war in Lebanon
and that was not very popular with the people of Israel.
But I do wonder about bringing some kind of end
to what's happening in Gaza. Is that as likely? Should
we assume that an end to that is just around
the corner or these are two different fronts and two
(03:09):
different stories here.
Speaker 5 (03:11):
Yeah, I mean, that's We've had a lot of false
hopes over the months since October seventh, twenty twenty three,
when Hamas launched that attack on Israel, that we would
see something. There had been a very brief cease fire
at one point, but you know, The intractable problem there
is that Israel says it will not stop the fight
in Gaza until Hamas no longer exists as a fighting force.
(03:33):
Hamas meanwhile says, even though it's in a vastly degraded state,
it says it will not end the fighting until Israel
with draw us from the Gaza strip. I mean, those
are two fundamentally oppositional goals, and so far the two
sides have found no way to be able to reconcile them.
You also, obviously have the fate of the Israeli hostages.
There's a dwindling number of those hostages, but there are
(03:56):
many still be believed to be alive in Gaza. Israel
wants the back Hamas does not want to give them
up because then it has no leverage essentially against Israel.
So a much thorny or much more intractable, intractable conflict,
And it looks like, you know, with the Biden administration
having less than two months in office, that's going to
(04:16):
be a very very big hill to climb for them
to be able to wrap that up.
Speaker 4 (04:20):
So that's exactly where I wanted to end, Nick, is
the idea of the incoming administration versus the Biden administration.
So what the Trump administration has said about the war,
the war's happening right now versus what the Biden administration
has sat and tried to do and even today's development,
How does that change when President elect Trump takes office
(04:43):
on January twentieth.
Speaker 5 (04:44):
Well, that's the question that is really front and center
for everyone, because President Elect Trump has essentially given some
pretty conflicting remarks on that, saying, on the one hand,
he believes that Israel should be allowed to finish the
job so that too many people suggests step up paign
in the Gaza strip against Hamas. He's also said though,
that he wants it to be wrapped up as quickly
(05:06):
as possible. So you could see a situation where Trump
essentially puts more pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who
gives him a free reign to do more of what
he wants, but less time to do it. He would
have some more leverage over Netanyahu because of the relationship
between the two of them, Trump and net and Yao,
(05:26):
who have a much cozier relationship than Biden and net Yahoo,
which was much more stand offish. So really difficult to
know how that plays out, because of course Hamas has
a say here. They can keep up the fight themselves,
but certainly President elect Trump has promised to bring this
to a swift end. The challenge, though, of course, as
I say, is his way of doing that is to
(05:48):
give Israel more of a free hand. So we'll have
to see how that plays out.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Hey, Nick, one last question, and let's just remind everybody
the top headline off this story. President Bind just speaking
from the Rose Garden at the White House saying Israel
reached a ceasefire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah
after weeks of talks mediated excuse me, by the United States,
and hailing this agreement as a major step to ending
a conflict that we know has killed thousands of people.
(06:13):
But it's not over yet. As we've been talking about
what's going on in the Gaza strip, I am curious Nick,
the timing of this. I'm assuming president like Donald Trump,
is getting security briefs. Are we assuming that there's some
conversations going on beyond between the president elect and the
current president. Maybe there was when they met at the
White House after Donald Trump was reelected. So I'm just
(06:35):
curious what you are hearing behind the scenes when it
comes to what's going on bigger picture.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
Sure, I mean we know that the Trump, the incoming
Trump administration, the Trump transition team has been getting briefings. However,
we do have one government at a time, and it
is actually illegal for non government Americans to conduct foreign
policy ostensibly on the government's behalf or as a sort
(07:02):
of government in waiting. That's not really something Trump can do. However,
what we do know is what we don't know the
extent of any conversations between Biden and Trump. I'd suspect
they'd be quite limited. We do know there have been
several conversations between Trump and Prime Minister Net and Yahoo,
and that's obviously the thing we're all trying to crack
what exactly they're saying to each other. What we've heard
(07:23):
from the Trump administration is it is not very detailed
conversations that they're not really talking deep strategy or anything
like that. But you could imagine a scenario where Trump
is going to put pressure on net and Yahoo in
one way or another, either to wrap things up or
who knows. So that's really something that we're trying to crack.
(07:45):
We do know those conversations are going on all.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Right, so appreciate it. Bloomberg News US National Security Team
leader Nick Wadams right there standing by with us. Khaleite
Alstein is Bloomberg News Economy and Government reporter. She's joining
us on the phone from Tel Aviv Galt. Initial thoughts
on this news and what it means for the war
in between Israel and yes, obviously with Hesbela, but also
(08:10):
with Hamas.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Yes, yes, goodnight from television, so obviously on Israel's more
with Isabella. This is some sea fire that you just
mentioned is about to go into effect four and a
half hours according to the reports that we're hearing here,
and this will bring to an end a war that
and ongoing fire exchanges that have been going on between
(08:34):
Israel and Iran backs Isabella since October eighth and twenty
twenty three. So that will definitely be a big change
for in this situation that it has been ongoing for
over over a year. One of Israel's achievements, officials here say,
is that by achieving this sea fire agreement, Israel has
(08:58):
managed to disconnect the war with his ballad in Lebanon
from the war that is going on with Hamas in Gaza.
You know, this is something that Israel was unable to
do for a very long time because his Bala leader,
Hassan Asada, which is well assassinated in late September, he
made a very strong point of saying that the two
(09:19):
Arenas and the two armed fronts are connected. And ever
since he was taken down by Israel and leadership in
his Balla changed. Israel has wanted to disconnect between the
two arenas and it is now from from the Israeli perspective,
it has managed to do that. And now Israel is
hoping that when Hamas is left on its own secluded,
(09:43):
you know which Isabella already part of a seafire deal,
it will put more pressure on Hamas to perhaps reach
a ceasefire agreement with Israel in Gaza.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
Also relee where does Iran fall in all of this
and how does their role change as a result of
this cease fire.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
So reports we're hearing for starters are that Iran did
support and back there's some sea fire agreement between Chrisbella
and Israel. Otherwise it probably would not have been able
to move forward as as it has and as it
should tomorrow morning. So so that's one one thing to
(10:24):
know about Iran. Now, Iran and Israel have been exchanging
fire for for several months now. Every every few months,
Iran has been attacking as well, ballistically solves as well
has retaliated recently in an attack of its own. Iran
has has now seemed to kind of take a step
(10:47):
back and its intentions to once again retaliate against as
well and see what the Trump administration is going to
look like for them, for Iran and perhaps some negotiating
new nuclear deal with you know, with the US and
other nations. So Iran it's kind of looks like now
(11:07):
like it's sitting on the fence. It is noteworthy that
Benjamin Attemao, when he was giving a televis statement this
evening just ahead of the of the Cabinet of the
Israeli cabinets approval of the ceasefire agreement, he did mention
that one of the reasons for Israel to want to
achieve a ceasefire, which isabelle at this time, is that
(11:28):
it can focus on the Iranian threat. And he said
he would not elaborate on what this means, but he
was obviously, you know, saying two three run right, and
we're still looking at you and we're still looking to
stop you from becoming a nuclear nation.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
Kolly just got about thirty seconds here. So is this
you know you're on the ground there, you understand the pressure.
We talked earlier with our Nick Wadams, who covers national
security certainly here in the United States. But saying that,
you know, ending what was going on Lebanon maybe is
not on the same doesn't necessarily mean we're going to
see an end to what's going on with Hamas and
(12:07):
uh Palestinians right now. So I just I'm wondering, tell
us what you can say, is this, Is this a
big step forward to we assume that we can see
an end to the conflict very soon everywhere or not
necessarily just quickly.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
So to summon up very quickly with Hamas. Maybe, like
I said, if Commas feels more secluded now and feels that,
you know, more pressure, maybe this can advance and see
for ideal between Israel and Comas. Iran is a different story.
Not that Trisabella is weakened after the war with Israel.
(12:41):
They are more exposed to perhaps an attacked against its
energy and mulcular facilities. I'm not saying that this is
on the table here and now, but this is definitely
something that NATANIAO has been hinting at. And it still
remains to be seeing whether the direct exchanges between Iran
and Israel that we've seen over the past month over
(13:04):
at this point and Lias until the chump and aguration,
or we'll see more of those exchanges on coming.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
We do know it's late, and we appreciate you giving
an update on the situation, certainly since you're there on
the ground. Khalide, thank you so much. Khalide Alstain Bloomberg
News Economy and Government report on the phone with us
from Tel Aviv
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Under the deal reached today, effective at four am tomorrow
local time, the fighting across the Celebanies Israeli border will end,
will end. This is designed to be a permanent cessation
of hostilities.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
What is left of.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Hesbalah and another terrorist organization will not be allowed.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
President Biden there in the Rose Garden at the White
House saying that Israel and Hesbela have agreed to a
cease fire deal. Giving his remarks on the Middle East conflict,
he says this ceasefire deal will last for sixty days.
He also went on to say that the people of
Gaza also deserve a cease fire deal, and he says
the only way out for Hamas is to release those
(00:51):
hostages that have been held in captivity. So a big day,
and we certainly heard earlier in the day from Prime
Minister Benjamin Notat in Yahoo said he would bring the
proposed ceasefire to a vote by his security cabinet.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
Yeah, that ceasefire, Lebanon ceasefire begins at four am local time.
For more, let's go to Bloomberg News. US National Security
Team Leader Nick Wadhams, who's standing by in Washington, DC. Nick,
good to have you joining us on this breaking news.
Help us understand where exactly this ceasefire, what part of
the war the ceasefire effects, and what part of the
war is still continuing to be ongoing.
Speaker 5 (01:24):
So there are essentially two fronts to this war. There's
Israel's battle with Hamas and the Gaza Strip, and then
resulting from that, after the attack by Hamas on October
seventh that provoked the Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip,
you've seen increasingly intense fire between Hesbela and Israel, and
in recent weeks that essentially turned into a full blown
war where you had Hesbelah launching missiles from Lebanon into Israel,
(01:48):
and you also had Israel widening the scope of a
pretty devastating campaign against Hesbolah in Lebanon, taking out many
of its top leaders and also striking targets in the
heart of Bay Root, essentially turning that city essentially into
a war zone. So that was where the Biden administration
and others such as France, which was also a sort
(02:09):
of handmade into this deal, found the prospect for an agreement,
and that's really where they focus. So what you see
today is the Biden administration getting that pause. Hopefully they
say it'll be much longer than a pause, It'll be
a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hesbalah. And then as
the President mentioned there, that would then in turn allow
(02:29):
for pressure to be put on Israel and Hamas to
get the much authority or agreement, which would be an
end to the violence in the Gaza strip. That's still
quite a long ways off, no indication that that would
be able to be completed by the end of Biden's
term and when President Elect Trump takes over.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Nick safe to say that the Israel war in Lebanon
and that was not very popular with the people of Israel.
But I do wonder about bringing some kind of end
to what's happening in Gaza. Is that as likely? Should
we assume that an end to that is just around
the corner or these are two different fronts and two
(03:09):
different stories here.
Speaker 5 (03:11):
Yeah, I mean, that's We've had a lot of false
hopes over the months since October seventh, twenty twenty three,
when Hamas launched that attack on Israel, that we would
see something. There had been a very brief cease fire
at one point, but you know, The intractable problem there
is that Israel says it will not stop the fight
in Gaza until Hamas no longer exists as a fighting force.
(03:33):
Hamas meanwhile says, even though it's in a vastly degraded state,
it says it will not end the fighting until Israel
with draw us from the Gaza strip. I mean, those
are two fundamentally oppositional goals, and so far the two
sides have found no way to be able to reconcile them.
You also, obviously have the fate of the Israeli hostages.
There's a dwindling number of those hostages, but there are
(03:56):
many still be believed to be alive in Gaza. Israel
wants the back Hamas does not want to give them
up because then it has no leverage essentially against Israel.
So a much thorny or much more intractable, intractable conflict,
And it looks like, you know, with the Biden administration
having less than two months in office, that's going to
(04:16):
be a very very big hill to climb for them
to be able to wrap that up.
Speaker 4 (04:20):
So that's exactly where I wanted to end, Nick, is
the idea of the incoming administration versus the Biden administration.
So what the Trump administration has said about the war,
the war's happening right now versus what the Biden administration
has sat and tried to do and even today's development,
How does that change when President elect Trump takes office
(04:43):
on January twentieth.
Speaker 5 (04:44):
Well, that's the question that is really front and center
for everyone, because President Elect Trump has essentially given some
pretty conflicting remarks on that, saying, on the one hand,
he believes that Israel should be allowed to finish the
job so that too many people suggests step up paign
in the Gaza strip against Hamas. He's also said though,
that he wants it to be wrapped up as quickly
(05:06):
as possible. So you could see a situation where Trump
essentially puts more pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who
gives him a free reign to do more of what
he wants, but less time to do it. He would
have some more leverage over Netanyahu because of the relationship
between the two of them, Trump and net and Yao,
(05:26):
who have a much cozier relationship than Biden and net Yahoo,
which was much more stand offish. So really difficult to
know how that plays out, because of course Hamas has
a say here. They can keep up the fight themselves,
but certainly President elect Trump has promised to bring this
to a swift end. The challenge, though, of course, as
I say, is his way of doing that is to
(05:48):
give Israel more of a free hand. So we'll have
to see how that plays out.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Hey, Nick, one last question, and let's just remind everybody
the top headline off this story. President Bind just speaking
from the Rose Garden at the White House saying Israel
reached a ceasefire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah
after weeks of talks mediated excuse me, by the United States,
and hailing this agreement as a major step to ending
a conflict that we know has killed thousands of people.
(06:13):
But it's not over yet. As we've been talking about
what's going on in the Gaza strip, I am curious Nick,
the timing of this. I'm assuming president like Donald Trump,
is getting security briefs. Are we assuming that there's some
conversations going on beyond between the president elect and the
current president. Maybe there was when they met at the
White House after Donald Trump was reelected. So I'm just
(06:35):
curious what you are hearing behind the scenes when it
comes to what's going on bigger picture.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
Sure, I mean we know that the Trump, the incoming
Trump administration, the Trump transition team has been getting briefings. However,
we do have one government at a time, and it
is actually illegal for non government Americans to conduct foreign
policy ostensibly on the government's behalf or as a sort
(07:02):
of government in waiting. That's not really something Trump can do. However,
what we do know is what we don't know the
extent of any conversations between Biden and Trump. I'd suspect
they'd be quite limited. We do know there have been
several conversations between Trump and Prime Minister Net and Yahoo,
and that's obviously the thing we're all trying to crack
what exactly they're saying to each other. What we've heard
(07:23):
from the Trump administration is it is not very detailed
conversations that they're not really talking deep strategy or anything
like that. But you could imagine a scenario where Trump
is going to put pressure on net and Yahoo in
one way or another, either to wrap things up or
who knows. So that's really something that we're trying to crack.
(07:45):
We do know those conversations are going on all.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Right, so appreciate it. Bloomberg News US National Security Team
leader Nick Wadams right there standing by with us. Khaleite
Alstein is Bloomberg News Economy and Government reporter. She's joining
us on the phone from Tel Aviv Galt. Initial thoughts
on this news and what it means for the war
in between Israel and yes, obviously with Hesbela, but also
(08:10):
with Hamas.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Yes, yes, goodnight from television, so obviously on Israel's more
with Isabella. This is some sea fire that you just
mentioned is about to go into effect four and a
half hours according to the reports that we're hearing here,
and this will bring to an end a war that
and ongoing fire exchanges that have been going on between
(08:34):
Israel and Iran backs Isabella since October eighth and twenty
twenty three. So that will definitely be a big change
for in this situation that it has been ongoing for
over over a year. One of Israel's achievements, officials here say,
is that by achieving this sea fire agreement, Israel has
(08:58):
managed to disconnect the war with his ballad in Lebanon
from the war that is going on with Hamas in Gaza.
You know, this is something that Israel was unable to
do for a very long time because his Bala leader,
Hassan Asada, which is well assassinated in late September, he
made a very strong point of saying that the two
(09:19):
Arenas and the two armed fronts are connected. And ever
since he was taken down by Israel and leadership in
his Balla changed. Israel has wanted to disconnect between the
two arenas and it is now from from the Israeli perspective,
it has managed to do that. And now Israel is
hoping that when Hamas is left on its own secluded,
(09:43):
you know which Isabella already part of a seafire deal,
it will put more pressure on Hamas to perhaps reach
a ceasefire agreement with Israel in Gaza.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
Also relee where does Iran fall in all of this
and how does their role change as a result of
this cease fire.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
So reports we're hearing for starters are that Iran did
support and back there's some sea fire agreement between Chrisbella
and Israel. Otherwise it probably would not have been able
to move forward as as it has and as it
should tomorrow morning. So so that's one one thing to
(10:24):
know about Iran. Now, Iran and Israel have been exchanging
fire for for several months now. Every every few months,
Iran has been attacking as well, ballistically solves as well
has retaliated recently in an attack of its own. Iran
has has now seemed to kind of take a step
(10:47):
back and its intentions to once again retaliate against as
well and see what the Trump administration is going to
look like for them, for Iran and perhaps some negotiating
new nuclear deal with you know, with the US and
other nations. So Iran it's kind of looks like now
(11:07):
like it's sitting on the fence. It is noteworthy that
Benjamin Attemao, when he was giving a televis statement this
evening just ahead of the of the Cabinet of the
Israeli cabinets approval of the ceasefire agreement, he did mention
that one of the reasons for Israel to want to
achieve a ceasefire, which isabelle at this time, is that
(11:28):
it can focus on the Iranian threat. And he said
he would not elaborate on what this means, but he
was obviously, you know, saying two three run right, and
we're still looking at you and we're still looking to
stop you from becoming a nuclear nation.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
Kolly just got about thirty seconds here. So is this
you know you're on the ground there, you understand the pressure.
We talked earlier with our Nick Wadams, who covers national
security certainly here in the United States. But saying that,
you know, ending what was going on Lebanon maybe is
not on the same doesn't necessarily mean we're going to
see an end to what's going on with Hamas and
(12:07):
uh Palestinians right now. So I just I'm wondering, tell
us what you can say, is this, Is this a
big step forward to we assume that we can see
an end to the conflict very soon everywhere or not
necessarily just quickly.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
So to summon up very quickly with Hamas. Maybe, like
I said, if Commas feels more secluded now and feels that,
you know, more pressure, maybe this can advance and see
for ideal between Israel and Comas. Iran is a different story.
Not that Trisabella is weakened after the war with Israel.
(12:41):
They are more exposed to perhaps an attacked against its
energy and mulcular facilities. I'm not saying that this is
on the table here and now, but this is definitely
something that NATANIAO has been hinting at. And it still
remains to be seeing whether the direct exchanges between Iran
and Israel that we've seen over the past month over
(13:04):
at this point and Lias until the chump and aguration,
or we'll see more of those exchanges on coming.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
We do know it's late, and we appreciate you giving
an update on the situation, certainly since you're there on
the ground. Khalide, thank you so much. Khalide Alstain Bloomberg
News Economy and Government report on the phone with us
from Tel Aviv
Hosts And Creators
Tim Stenovec
Carol Massar
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