Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and
Tim Stenoveek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
So we just talked a little bit about what's going
on in Miami in terms of commercial and residential. We
want to broaden out a little bit to New York
City and across the country. In fact, what has been
one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg today
has to do with Manhattan condo buyers getting squeezed by
a shortage of units on the Upper West Side. I
gotta say, Bloomberg users always love to read about estate
New York City in particular. Let's get a view on
(00:36):
New York City and more with us. Is Ron Eliasoff.
He is founder and managing partner of north Wind Group.
They have transacted on over five point six billion dollars
worth of debt and equity investments in residential, commercial, senior living,
in healthcare properties. He's right here in our Bloomberg Interactive
Broker studio. Ron, good to have you here with David
and myself. Tell us a little bit more about your
firm and the composition of some of the investments that
(00:59):
you guys have.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Thank you, Carol.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
I mean, we're a Manhattan based private equity firm. We
focus on credit investments, mainly providing acquisition bridge construction loans
on residential properties and healthcare properties in supply constraint markets.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
But dead end equity.
Speaker 4 (01:13):
Well, we start on the equity side and then we've
transitioned in twenty seventeen to the credit side, and now
we're one hundred percent strictly in the credit space.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
You are so completely okay.
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Why back then we start looking at the risk adjusted
returns in equity versus credit, and it started to make
sense back then to shift gradually into.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
The credit space.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
Obviously we did not anticipate COVID or rate increases, but
that definitely turned out into be a great environment for credit.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
But I wanted to ask you about it just kind
of the trends of redevelopment in this city. And I
know there was so much conversation for so long coming
out of the pandemic about what could we do with
all of this vacant office space? Could we make them
into more residential space. Where is that conversation today and
is that something that you're and your company are interested
in at this point.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Yes, we're heavily involved. Obviously in New York City is
seeing of housing supply. It's been a trend for the
last five to seven years or so. We're personally involved
with about eight office to rezic conversions, including the largest one,
which is the prior Peiser.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
The Siser headquarters building. Tell us a bit about that
because that is kind of getting a lot of attention.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
It's excited and actually if you look at that entire
city block between on forty second, between second and third,
five out of five buildings are being converted on that.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Block, which is incredible.
Speaker 4 (02:25):
So we're the first mortgage lender on two thirty five
East forty second Street, which will be turned into combined
with the neighboring building, to sixteen hundred rental units.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
It's a very exciting project.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
You think about as Pfizer left the building moved to
Hudson Hudson Yards building stod vacant and with the incentives
that came from the city City of Yes, you know,
four sixty seven m tax abatement program, revializing a vacant
building into a vibrant community.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
You mentioned rentals. That's where things are headed here when
it comes to million more residential units in New York City.
Rent is where it's at.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
Most conversions are for rentals. We have seen some office
to condo conversions, but usually when you do a conversion,
it's a slightly more limited product.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
It's still a great.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Apartment to live in, but you know, when you're buying
a condo or you're paying top dollar you want, you don't
want to compromise, and a rental it works usually better.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Well, how difficult are those conversions? I think for a
long time people thought those office buildings couldn't easily be converted,
or couldn't be converted at all. Nobody was going to
want it. But I hear it's not always so easy.
But walk us through.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
It's definitely more complex. It's definitely more complicated than a
ground up.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
We're costly too.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
It really depends on the building. In the Pizer building
as an example, that they are opening a courtyard, kind
of an interior courtyard. So that's a heavy lift in
tier structural work that has to be done. So usually
a conversion will take slightly longer and will be slightly
more costly. But what happened post COVID is some of
these buildings traded that you know, rock bottom dollar, you
(03:53):
know price. So they ended up buying the building for
less than what the land would have traded, right, So
it ended ups working as a very good transaction, but
it would not have worked without the long term tax
abatement program.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
We have a mayoral election here on the horizon and
a debate tonight, and I am going to go out
and a limit. Guess there's gonna be a lot of
conversation during the course of that debate about affordability in
New York City. And I know there's been some magitua
among some folks about the Democratic nominee for mayor and
what he said about say, what that might mean for
people coming here or leaving. But he really has centered
his campaign on this notion of affordability. And I wonder
(04:27):
how resonant that is with you, And regardless of who
wins this election, how high up on that agenda, how
high up on that list is this idea of how
do you get more affordable units in this city so
that people can live here, if not easily in a
way that they might in other places.
Speaker 4 (04:41):
Well, you know, my opinion is as most politicians are
going about it the wrong way. About capping rents and
rents stabilizing rent freeze where really to solve affordability, you
need to create more supply, and in a city like
New York, it's very tough to do. You know, we
have a limited amount of land and building. So the
real road should be to figure out where we can
create It's probably not going to be in Manhattan, right,
(05:01):
It's probably going to be somewhere in the outer boroughs.
Create more supply of rental units, and you create more supply, gradually,
price will go down for most New Yorkers over time.
But it's not an easy thing to do, especially we
have to be re elected every two to four years.
This needs a ten to fifteen year plan to really
fix affordability.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Do you want to provide the debt for plans outside
of maybe Manhattan?
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Definitely?
Speaker 4 (05:25):
Well, we land across the country in about twenty five states.
If the land is priced right and you can understand
what the construction costs will be right now, if you
build it, they will come because there is a housing shortage,
not just in New York, but in a lot of
major urban markets across the country.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Yeah, we've been talking about private credit, both the good
and the bad of it. We've seen these headlines about
regional banks, what exposure they might have, any risks that
might be kind of income with that? What is private
credit able to do that banks aren't able to do well?
I mean there's this kind of narrative that we've seized
upon that the opportunities in private credit. It's growing so
fast as you look at what banks traditional banks offer
(06:01):
in private offers, why does it seem to have an
edge at least in terms of the narrative or the
dialogue surrounding lending.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
A means time.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
I mean, banks have a better cost of capital, so
they will always be able to provide a cheaper cost
of capital, cheaper loans. Essentially, private lenders we typically move faster,
slightly more efficient, slightly less heavy regulation as the banks do,
so we're able to provide a usually faster, sometimes more.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Flexible financing solutions.
Speaker 4 (06:31):
But in any given day, if a bank comes in
and gives a loan a three percent cheaper, you know,
the developer shoot and will take it right. We've seen
the last three years commercial banks really curb their lending activity.
They're starting to come back. We're seeing more activity. Spreads
are gradually tightening a bit, which is a good thing
for the economy and for real estate in general.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
It means cost of borring is coming down a bit.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Well, that's what I was.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
Going to ask you. When you look at kind of
the level of activity that you are doing, I think
we're just in this interesting point. We're trying to figure
out what is the right way or what is the
way forward. I think people are surprised considering where we
were back in the spring, and we saw markets sell off,
and there were concerns about American are US exceptionalism going away?
(07:14):
And it does feel like earnings and things have held up. Like,
how would you describe the business environment right now?
Speaker 3 (07:20):
I mean what we're seeing.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
I mean we had a record twenty twenty four, We've
originated over one point one billion in new direct loans,
and we're seeing volume pick up, not go down. So
there's more activity rates coming in a bit. Is helping
general a little bit more stability. I would say the
most important thing people are underwriting are cautious about right
now is political risk. It's true for the federal level,
(07:41):
it's true for the global economy, and it's true for
New York specifically. Political risk has become the number one
risk you have to underwrite and take into consideration when
you're considering buying or lending in any market.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Spell that out a bit more so, is you know,
when you look at the uncertainty you're having to deal with,
is it principally sort of trade policy tariffs? How much
is going to cost for the materials that you need
to renovate or redevelop a building or a project. How
much does immigration policy come into play? I mean, is
it easy enough for you to find not you the
folks you're working with, to find workers to do the
(08:13):
kind of construction building you need. What is weigh on
when you talk about geopolitical risk, political risk? What are
we talking about?
Speaker 4 (08:20):
So real estate eventually is a local business, So it's
the local regulation changes. Look what happened in New York
post trends stabilized, you know, law change in twenty nineteen,
an entire industry and you know almost got decimated. Right,
So we're looking at that new mayor election. There's definitely
aggressive agendas out there with some you know, aggressive ideas
on how to go about Ma'mdani gets selected, He's going
(08:43):
to try and get some of that done. It's not
going to happen immediately, it's going to take a couple
of years, but he probably do it, and that will
impact values and it will also cause in the meantime
people to kind of pause and say, Okay, you know what,
let's wait and see how it plays out.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
That might reduce.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Investment activity overall. So political risk is across the board.
You know, we invest also in healthcare and we've seen
you know, the huge change and you know Medicaid, Medicare builds.
I think President Trump just spoke about a little bit
as well. So that's something you have to follow also
very carefully to see how the wind is. You know
where the wind is blowing.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Well, you guys play into senior living. Talk to us
about that. I mean, I just feel like that whole
aging investment play continues. How much are you doing in building?
How much are you investing in that area.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
So we're mostly providing acquisition bridge loans on income producing
portfolios of senior housing and skilled nursing in about twenty somethings,
Assisted living and skilled nursing, System living and skilled nursing.
So these are typical you know, portfolios of eight, ten,
fifteen properties that are being purchased and we are providing
the bridge to hot loan. Talk about political risk, you know,
government shutdown HUT as well as impacted. You see a
(09:49):
slower pace of refinancing from HUD. So there's a definitely
impact of policy into business activity.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
Ron Nin.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Even the fact we've been hearing from the President, he
has concluded his remark and just to give you a
little digestive what he said after we ducked out of
his comments, he taught about oil prices going down, says
he wants to see gasoline below two dollars a barrel.
That's the headliner there me.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Too, there are something that we thought at two dollars
the oil company.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
Here you go, and I'll note also a headline crossing
that Semaphore is reporting that Argentina's and conversations with private
lenders to the tune of twenty billion dollars to help
its economy here and again that's not something that Bloomberg
has matched or confirmed, but some of before reporting that,
and the story here has been of course, the US
has bailed out that country to an extent, but it's
been looking we know that actively for private partners in
(10:34):
that effort as well. So synthesize in all of that
news here right.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
That's partnered with China certainly, and the US looking to
kind of come in there and assist in terms of currency.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
Ron.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
One thing I want to ask you, and I think
about even around Bloomberg, we've had a lot of empty
retail space. I was in Boston recently, a lot of
open stores for rent, a lot of storefronts. Is there
still a lot of office buildings that are vacant post COVID?
Speaker 4 (11:06):
I mean, if you talk about New York City, we're
definitely seeing absorption kickin in the office market. I think
the last three quarters have been the same levels of leasing.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Like you've seen pre COVID.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
So the last quarter was equivalent to twenty nineteen leasing volume,
which is good. Okay, So to answer your question, there's
vacancy still out there. It's coming down a bit, and
I think when we're speaking to office landlords right now,
they're starting not to smile again, but they're starting to
look less round as they did a year ago when
it was a very very tough listing environment.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
All right, good to know and good to check in
with you. Thank you so much for our bouncing back
and forth it's kind of our world right now, and
there's a lot coming out of DC and certainly the president.
Aron eliasaf he is, founder and marging partner of north
Wind Group, Joining us right here on Bloomberg Business Week
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