December 1, 2025 • 35 mins
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
The start of a historically strong month on Wall Street saw stocks falling as traders shunned riskier corners of the market amid a selloff in cryptocurrencies. A rout in Japanese debt rippled through global bonds.
Caution prevailed after a rally that drove the S&P 500 to its longest streak of monthly gains since 2021. The Russell 2000 gauge of small caps slid over 1%. Nearly $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during a sharp drop in prices that brought fresh momentum to a wide-ranging industry plunge. Bitcoin sank to around $85,000.
Despite the reduced appetite for risk, Treasuries kicked off the week on the back foot as Japan’s bond yields climbed after comments from the central bank chief spurred rate-hike wagers.
Equities lost steam after investors wrapped up a choppy November with gains amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve is more likely than not to ease policy this month.
Today's show features:
- Doug Ciocca, CEO of Kavar Capital, on markets, the economy and investment strategies to close out 2025
- Bloomberg Tech Co-Host Ed Ludlow on Nvidia’s $2 billion investment into chip-design software maker Synopsis
- Christina Lee, Managing Director and Co-Portfolio Manager for US Private Debt Strategy at Oaktree Capital Management on the health of the US credit market
- Dana Telsey, Founder, CEO and Chief Research Officer of Telsey Advisory Group, recaps Black Friday and breaks down key retail spending trends for Cyber Monday
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine
that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies,
and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business finance
and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week
Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg
(00:31):
Radio Field.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Kind of mellow this Monday after Thanksgiving, and it's not
like there's a good meeting in a week and a
half too.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
Is everyone just they're bringing turkey for lunch for leftovers. Yeah,
and they're falling asleep at their desk because of the
ingredient in turkey that makes you fall asleep, supposedly, I
don't know if that's true.
Speaker 5 (00:50):
It could be.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (00:51):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (00:52):
Maybe maybe watch any football.
Speaker 5 (00:54):
We didn't really watch football.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
I was in Ohio, so we had to watch the
Ohio State Michigan game.
Speaker 5 (00:58):
For your wife for.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
A while, for every family, for anybody you walked into,
anybody you've ran into in the entire state, if you
were walking down the street. That's how it works there.
Speaker 5 (01:09):
It's a big ye fall state.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Go you go Ohio State, is what I have to say.
Speaker 5 (01:14):
Well, yeah, it was a lot of football this past weekend.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Let's let's go talk a little bit about the markets,
because we've been bouncing around here and it does look
like we're counting down in next week's SPED meeting.
Speaker 5 (01:23):
With US right now is Doug Sioca.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
He's chief executive officer partner at Kavar Capital Partners. The
firm has about one point six billion in assets under management.
He joins US from Leewood, Kansas. Doug, there is so
much going on, so many important things. You've got that
next FED meeting, next FED share, the spend on AI,
the crypto fallout, so many important things. But we've got
(01:45):
to start Tim with what's really the most important thing,
and that is the Kansas City Chiefs. We got to
ask they're in danger of missing the playoffs for the
first time in more than a decade. They've been in
the last three Super Bowls. I'm always rooting for them,
watching them play. They always come back, Yet this year
seems like it's something different. How painful is that for you?
Speaker 6 (02:07):
You know, it's tough.
Speaker 7 (02:10):
It's more painful to hear Tim ruding for the Ohio.
Speaker 8 (02:12):
State book guy, Come on, Isabelle, but we do.
Speaker 7 (02:16):
He's still a lot of counts in our Chiefs. It's
it's funny and maybe an a lot of markets. There's
mean reversion that tends to take place. And the Chiefs
have lost six games, all within one score, and really
the last seven or eight years they've seen win all
those one score games. So they may have used up
some of this year's luck and prior seasons, but we're
still a long way to go. If I think that
(02:37):
if they can win ten eleven games, they have a
decent chance to get into the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
So we're still hopeful.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Wow, what's easier the market? The equity market continuing to
move to the upside, or the Chiefs actually getting a
chance at another Super Bowl?
Speaker 7 (02:53):
Hey? You know, I mean this look the stock market,
and we wrote a piece a couple of months ago.
It just talked about these all time highs, and certainly
there's an obsession about where we go and you get
to those inflection points, which is defensible, right, but you know,
it's how could we not be at all time highs
and we have earnings growing as fast as they have,
We have a fed that's in a very accomodative posture.
We have low taxes and regulation, and we're in the
(03:16):
midst of one of the greatest ever like tangible technological
revolutions our country in the world has ever seen. So
are not too terribly surprised that we're at all time highs,
Nor are we too terribly surprised when we see a
little bit of consternation and maybe some in intermittent volatility
that transpires around these levels.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
So okay, so let's broaden this out a little bit
and think about the people who are in control of
interest rates, and that would be, of course, the Federal Reserve.
We spoke with Christina Lee a little earlier, and it
seems like Carol people are pretty set on the fact
that it could be Kevin Hasset, the president of City's
made a decision. Yeah, we just don't know who that is.
(03:53):
Now Kevin Hassett as FED chair. Does it change your view?
What do you? What do you make of it?
Speaker 7 (03:59):
You know, we knew whoever President Trump was going to
pick was going to be very dubbish, and Kevin certainly
came to the top of almost all lists over the
course the last couple months.
Speaker 8 (04:09):
I didn't think anyone.
Speaker 7 (04:10):
Ever thought Miron was going to get the nod as
the Cherokee likely would never get confirmed. Kevin Walsh seen
to fall off the table. Going back to the fighting Irish.
I had a saft spot for Chris Waller since he
used to teach economics at the university, but I think
Kevin Hass.
Speaker 8 (04:23):
Would be a very good choice.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
And I do think.
Speaker 7 (04:26):
Look, I mean the FED wants to cut rates, Carol
mentioned on the lead in We've got a FED meeting
the next week and a half. I think that the
Fed we've got this theory that they're in this sort of.
Speaker 8 (04:36):
This triangulation of FED tension.
Speaker 7 (04:39):
Right. As I mentioned, we have a really strong economy,
but it's very uneven in its benefit distribution. We have
a fear of excellss liquidity if we see a lowering
of interest rates. But it's also a time where it's
a very very significant cohort of the consumer that is
dying for a little reprieve with lower rates because they
(04:59):
have of floating rate depth, because they have jobs, and
it'll keep up with the cost of living in the
increasing price of things because they don't have money in
the market. Right. And then the third thing is we
have this incredible technological revolution. It's ubiquitous in its industry application,
and it's unprecedented in its efficiency elevation.
Speaker 6 (05:20):
But it's exacerbating unemployment.
Speaker 7 (05:23):
Right, So the Fed really is at a consternation point.
I think they do want to cut rates. They've talked
about doing it as an insurance cut. We think of
it more like a cohort cut to a certain very
important part of the underlying consumer.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Well, what does the path look like beyond December?
Speaker 7 (05:37):
Then, yeah, that's a great that's a really good question, Tim,
you know, I think again, maybe that comes back to
Hassett where you know, interestingly, President Trump had said for
a while in some of his his detigradation of Chair
Powell that shoot, we need to be closer to where
Japan is in Europe is, and we need to cut
rates by three and fifty basis points. While we look
(05:58):
at the bottom market this morning or in the midst
of one of the biggest sell offs we've had in
the last couple of months, because there was an expectation
over night that Japan is going to hike rates. So
if we have sort of a monetary policy that's not
globally coordinated, that could create a little more consternation to
fixed income markets, but it could underscore the need for
(06:19):
the US to be able to accommodative more so than
we otherwise would have to be if the rest of
world was on the same page.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Hey, I want to go back to though I don't disagree,
I think a lot of people don't disagree that when
you look at the K shaped economy, that there are
many folks that are struggling in this economic environment.
Speaker 5 (06:34):
And you're right, Doug, they're not in the equity markets.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
We now are talking about the three A pillars, whether
it's you know, acid prices going up because of the
spend on AI and that is making the rich people
even richer affluent, and so you know, they have a
lot of money to spend, and we know the wealthier
consumer is really important to the overall consumer spend. Having
(06:59):
said that, society wise, socially, it's important right to take
care of all citizens because there's a lot of Americans
that aren't in the equity market. Having said that, the
Fed's mandate is to watch inflation and to watch the
labor market. And is there a risk if they go
on a trajectory of cutting rates, if they just do
(07:21):
it in December. Do you think there's any risk of
creating some excess liquidity in a market where you say,
earnings look good and there's a lot of good stuff
out there. So is there, you know, the possibility of
a risk and who knows how that plays out and
what kind of a crisis.
Speaker 5 (07:37):
Maybe none, but I just wonder.
Speaker 6 (07:39):
I love it's crisis, like Carol.
Speaker 7 (07:41):
But I do think again, this goes back to this
tension that the FED is really.
Speaker 8 (07:45):
Walking a tightrope because to your.
Speaker 7 (07:47):
Point, I do think widespread prosperity is one of the
things that makes our.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
Country so special.
Speaker 7 (07:54):
With that expectation that is it is creating to reach
for full participation. I think the issue becomes like if
things used to become on affordable that you're helping this
important color with one hand and you're knocking them back
with the other.
Speaker 6 (08:09):
So that's the part.
Speaker 7 (08:11):
Where they unfortunately have a pretty blunt instrument. Yeah, there
might be other ways, right, whether that is just balance
sheet management of things along those lines, whether that becomes
some of the entore that takes place with fiscal policy
incentives to increase employment because it is a really challenging time,
without question, No.
Speaker 6 (08:28):
And listen. Totally agree.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
It's got of the wealth has to spread out to
a lot more folks across the country. Doug Cioka always
appreciate it, ca our capital partners.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
up after this.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five East during
Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Let's get now to developments in AI big tech. As
the king of AI bel whether as we're talking about,
Nvidia invested two billion dollars in chip design software maker
Synopsis as part of a broader engineering and designed tie
up aiming tim to infuse its AI computing technology into
more industries.
Speaker 4 (09:15):
With the Tech Roundup, we had to the Bloomberg News
studio and bureau in San Francisco, where we find the
co host of Bloomberg Tech, Ed Ludlow, ed, why is
Nvidia doing this? Why?
Speaker 9 (09:24):
Now, Yeah, I guess there's a question of why is
Nvidia doing this? And then what does Synopsis get out
of it? You know, so, like Synopsis makes the software
by which chips are designed but also validated. So before
you send a chip through the fab to be manufactured,
you want to know that that design works. And that's
a big part of what Synopsis does with all kinds
of tech companies. And so part of the interpretation of
(09:47):
why is Nvidia doing this is it's a sales channel
because Synopsis is basically saying, imagine how good our software
would be if it was underpinned by Nvidia's GPUs and
in Vidia's catalog of software, which largely it is called
Kuda X. It's basically a library of building blocks for
AI that just make existing software platforms better. And so
(10:08):
the next thing you're going to ask me about it's
probably circular financing. But from perspective, you know, it gives
them entry to a tool or a platform that lots
of people are using.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
So circular finance, I mean, come on, like Carols, did it?
Speaker 6 (10:24):
Is it just getting crazy or so?
Speaker 9 (10:28):
I don't know the parties on this specific deal in
video and Synopsis would say this is not circular financing.
In the same way that the graphic you're showing to
our video audience illustrates, there is no requirement that Synopsis purchases.
Speaker 8 (10:43):
From Nvidia in videos GPUs.
Speaker 9 (10:46):
Additionally, and this is all according to Nvidia CEO Jensen
Wong who was speaking this morning. Additionally, as I said,
Synopsis does business with all kinds of chip makers, and
Nvidia also does business with other makers of chip design
in software Semens is one, for example, And none of
that's going to change. Everyone is free to carry on
as they want. And it goes back to the why
(11:07):
is in video doing this? You know, this is an
area of the technology where we call electronic design automation
EDA software and a lot of people feel that those
systems which have historically been run on CPUs old engineering
platforms could be a lot better if they were run
on GPUs or AI accelerators. They're just better pieces of
(11:28):
software as a result. But there are loads of players
now everyone's free to have better software.
Speaker 8 (11:33):
Is how in video would put it?
Speaker 10 (11:35):
Well?
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Why, I mean Synopsis wants to have Envidea as a customer, right,
so why did they need it? Like what does that
two billion dollar investment doo?
Speaker 9 (11:47):
So now this is like highly analogous with the Intel situation,
and it's highly analogous with the Nokia situation. And so
this year I've had two specific opportunities to ask Jensen Wang,
what's the rationale taking a steak, like why do you
need to own between two and three percent of these companies?
And his answer is always I thought it would be
(12:09):
a great investment and that in the future that investment
will pay off. So in Nvidia got these synops of
shares at four one hundred and fourteen dollars and seventy
nine cents apiece.
Speaker 8 (12:19):
The stock's now higher than that. I can't see it
on the screen, four hundred and forty dollars a piece.
Speaker 9 (12:23):
But I remember back in October when we're in DC,
I asked the same question of Jensen, why did you
have to take almost three percent of Nokia? And he
was like, well, it looks like a pretty genius move now,
doesn't it, because Nokia shares are up twenty percent, And
I just like in the moment, I couldn't believe that
was his answer, But he genuinely believes that it's going
to be a great investment because he sees those engineering
(12:43):
partnerships changing the respective fields that they're going into.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
Okay, Ed, we only have three minutes left, but there's
two more stories we want to hear with you. One
is deep Seek because China's deep Seek unveiled two new
versions of an experimental AI model that it released weeks ago.
It adds fresh capabilities a startup set would help with
combining reasoning and executing certain actions autonomously. I'm old enough
to remember earlier this year when a deep Sea update
comes out and tank shares of Nvidia. We don't see that,
(13:09):
and we haven't seen that. Where is deep Seek when
it comes to competition?
Speaker 9 (13:14):
Okay, so deep Seek the three point two has been
out for a number of weeks now in the form
of deep sec v three point two exp Experimental. They
just dropped the exp bit and it's an open source
model that against benchmarking, performs very well against GBT five
Open AI islaers model. Where they've made a difference in
(13:34):
this open source world is that, like open AI, deep
Seak wants to make the tool more useful, so they
had the human reasoning element. It parrots the behavior of
a human, but it replies the tool in a more
useful way. Markets reacted in January through April the way
they did because they didn't understand how deep Seek had
achieved that performance for a model at the low cost
(13:55):
point that it did.
Speaker 5 (13:58):
That, does the world need to be worried?
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Those are our guests, like, how does this fit in?
How competitive?
Speaker 9 (14:05):
Is it?
Speaker 10 (14:05):
Real?
Speaker 8 (14:06):
Quickly, it's competitive.
Speaker 9 (14:08):
Models at this scale have tens of billions of parameters
or more. And what Deepseek did is called mixture of
experts or MOZ designs, where if you have one hundred
billion parameter model, when you run the inference, you actually
run it, you don't need to access all one hundred
billion parameters. They found a way of just accessing say
ten billion parameters or sixty billion parameters, which makes the
cost of running it in the compute much more efficient.
(14:30):
So the model is as performance, it's just easier to run.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
I do feel like everything's now about efficiency in terms
of power use, in just getting things done. Hey, what
do we need to know about Nasiyoshi's son, the soft
Bank founder who said he wouldn't have sold off in
video shares of his company had unlimited money to bankroll
its next investments in artificial intelligence? Is there something important
here that we should acknowledge?
Speaker 9 (14:52):
All you need to know is that he wishes he
hadn't sold it, but he didn't have enough money. He
needed more money, so he sold the thing that could
get him money and video shares, and then he used
it to invest in the thing he thinks will make
him more money in the future.
Speaker 8 (15:04):
Open AI. And it's as simple as that.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
All Right, I love it.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
Even he needs more money? What does that say?
Speaker 5 (15:11):
How about buy now?
Speaker 4 (15:13):
That's just society. This is the world we live in.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Everybody needs more money, all right, Gonna leave it there.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Ed always glad we can go around the world of
technology with you. Ed Lolove.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
Of course, he is co host of Bloomberg Tech at
Bloomberg Television. Catch Ed and Caroline Hyde eleven am Wall
Street Time every Monday through Friday on Bloomberg TV.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
each weekday starting at two pm Eastern up on Apple
car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven
thirty Well.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Bloomberg opinion piece grabbed our attention today, Paul J. Davies
He's based in London. He writes that quote, the lack
of transparency in private credit is one and that investors
and journalists could be more fearful than is warranted by
historical performance. But there's illustrating data too, illuminating data rather
from analysts and ratings companies that show the outlook for
repayment problems and bankruptcies isn't great. In fact, it's getting worse.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
That Again from his column, Davis goes on to write
that he's quote talking about junk rated loans made by
private credit funds, mostly mid sized companies, often used to
fund private equity buyouts, and similar to the leverage loans
at banks underwrite and sell to investors. To be fair,
there's a lot of questions that have emerged in recent
weeks about private credit, and we have yet to see
kind of a systemic issue or problem, at least that's
(16:37):
what we hear from a lot of the voices we
talked to.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
Let's bring in Christina Lee. She's managing director and co
portfolio manager for US private debt strategy over at oak
Tree Capital Management affirm that's gotten more than two hundred
billion dollars in assets under management. Welcome, it's good to
have you.
Speaker 10 (16:51):
Well, thank you so much for having me here.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
You must have been watching the events over the last
few weeks. With great interest, And I'm wondering just your
view on the chatter around greater concerns when it comes
to private credit. And again I'm using the term like,
you know, a monolith, but not all private credit is
the same.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (17:09):
I think it's been called the Great cocker Chores, you
name it. I think one of the issues that I
think people are having is there's been some high profile
bankruptcies that I've had recently, and people are saying, is
this systemic? Is this a pattern of what's next? I
think sometimes you do have to take a step back
and remember we're doing some investment grade credit. You are
(17:31):
taking risk. There will be defaults, there will be restructurings.
You don't get eight to nine percent all in yields
by not taking risk.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Okay, So having said that, when you guys, especially you know,
in terms of private credit, I think what really tripped
a lot of investors or investments up in the private world,
private credit, private equity for that matter, is.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
That there weren't the exits that were normally there.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
Right, we've seen them pushed off and I think it's
starting to come back. But then you had renegotiated you
just like all these things started to happen, and you
just wonder whether it gets a little bit fuzzier and
that there is more opportunities or more touch points for
things to come undone roll that in and how we
should be thinking about that part of it.
Speaker 10 (18:14):
I think defaults have been very very low in private credit,
and if you were to look at various managers their
loss ratios, et cetera, default rates would probably all be
relatively similar. And that's because private credit hasn't really been
through a downturn yet, right the advent of the class
when it really started booming was maybe ten years ago.
Speaker 8 (18:34):
I think COVID was too short.
Speaker 10 (18:36):
I think what you're seeing right now also is defaults
will likely rise because a lot of these bars put
in capital structures when it was a zero interest rate environment,
which is you know, now it's higher for longer, and
I think that's why you're seeing defaults and some cracks emerge.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
Does it get worse though, because you're right, an investment
in a zero rate where money costs nothing is very
different from where.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
We are today, right, It's just the business.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Dynamics and the financial dynamics of a deal looks very different.
So do we see more cracks going forward, is Jamie
diamond Wright that there's never just one cockroach.
Speaker 10 (19:10):
I think you likely will see some cracks, but what
will be dependent is the cracks have been massed, the
cracks have been around for a year or two. Is
there's a lot of liquidity in private credit and even
in private equity. They weren't necessarily deploying in new investments,
but they were helping the resisting investments.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Forgive me for when does too much liquidity, though, become
a problem where you're chasing after there's so much more
folks involved in the private market world, private credit, private equity,
and when there's a lot of money around, it's like
people are chasing deals and maybe more likely to take
on even more risks.
Speaker 6 (19:45):
So when does it get messy or does it not?
Speaker 5 (19:47):
In this world? Maybe it's something different.
Speaker 10 (19:49):
I think right now what you're seeing is there's still
a supply demand and balance. As you had mentioned, there's
less exits, there's less M and A and so private
credit dry powder has increased. But if we were to
look at kind of the exit piece that private equity
needs to do, M and A should increase starting in
twenty twenty six, and that supply demand imbalance should lessen.
(20:12):
But right now, what you're seeing is there's really an
imbalance right now, and so you are seeing that competitive
nature of private credit. And does that mean looser underwriting
standards a lot of time, yes, which you note.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
Howard Marx, the co chairman, principal, co founder of oak
Tree Capital Management, out just last month, it was in
the beginning of November, with a traditionally long memo about
private credit, but in bold on the second page he writes, So, no,
I don't think this is necessarily the beginning of a trend.
And by the way, it's called cockroaches in the coal mine.
(20:47):
It's not an indictment of the whole sub investment grade
debt market or the whole private credit market. Rather, it's
just a reminder that the yield spreads people care about
so much are there for a reason, because sub investment
grade debt entails credit risk. You agree, this is essentially
just part of investing in this type of debt.
Speaker 10 (21:05):
Exactly if you don't take on risk, that usually means
that you're yielding something lower. Right, it goes hand in hand,
And I think because we've been in such a benign
market where that you haven't seen a lot of defaults,
et cetera. That's why people, I think are surprised.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
So then what's the what's the what are the products
or what are what's the credit that investors should avoid
right now?
Speaker 10 (21:25):
Like?
Speaker 4 (21:25):
How do you separate because of another? A criticism I
guess you could say is that there's not a lot
of transparency necessarily with this type of investment. So then
how do investors know what they should invest in and
what they should stay away from?
Speaker 10 (21:41):
Yeah, I think one of the things to look out
for is one of the questions. I think that we
all talk about our valuation works. Right, is there transparency?
Is there not transparency?
Speaker 8 (21:51):
I always as.
Speaker 10 (21:52):
Tell people to ask them what is your valuation methodology?
How often are you looking at your valuation? Because in
the end, we are in a private eliquis market, there's
no mark to market, there is no market, and so
there is a subjectiveness and a judgment on the manager.
And I think a lot of it is do they
mark their investments aggressively or are they conservative?
Speaker 5 (22:13):
Right?
Speaker 4 (22:13):
How do you know?
Speaker 10 (22:14):
I think you have to ask your questions of how
what methodology does to you? Do you discounted cash flow?
How much does current field matter? What is your recovery rates?
Speaker 4 (22:22):
So this is what wrote about last week.
Speaker 3 (22:24):
Well, yeah, yes, but this is where, like I think
about Christina, that a firm, whether it's oak Tree or
somebody else, Right, if you're you're playing games in terms
of valuations or not being so transparent or whatever for
your investors, the deals aren't going to pay off, right,
and investors are not going to give you any more money.
So is that kind of a checks and balance in
some way in terms of ensuring you guys are doing
(22:48):
the work like they trust a manager. Yeah, and that
you guys are making sure you have the transparency before
you go into a deal.
Speaker 10 (22:56):
Exactly, because if you are way too aggressive and all
your marks are inflated, you'll have a really hard time
with your investors, right, right. That is reputation risk. And
also just inherently as a creditor, you are always worried
about kind of what's next, what's the next risk, because
your upside is getting what's contractually due to you, right,
(23:17):
So a lot of just inherently as a credit investor,
you tend to be conservative.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Because that's why it's you know, and some of the
conversations we've had in trying to figure out, like there
are there more cockroaches out there that maybe some of
what some have said is smaller players that maybe maybe
don't do as much homework or something that that's where
we might see some problems. Talk to us about the
market overall, where you guys are finding opportunities right now
(23:43):
and what kind of kind of opportunities. And I'm curious
if it tells you kind of what this investment environment.
Is it a healthy one? Is it a stressed one?
Like I'm just curious.
Speaker 10 (23:53):
I would say right now, it is, there's a supply demand,
a balance, So what does that mean. It's very competitive.
If you think about the first nine months of the
year with the tariffs, right with all of the uncertainty,
M and A went to a screeching halt for the
most part. Now M and A has kind of come
back after Labor Day, and so now you're seeing what
I call a little bit of fomo where you're seeing
(24:14):
a lot of lenders rush to get deals done. And
I think this is the time that you want to
be very selective, you want to be a credit picker,
because the terms are getting more aggressive, Leverage is going up,
pricing is going down, and so from like oak Tree's
philosophy standpoint is, you really need to be selective. It's
it's a yellow light. Proceed with caution. You're not going
to stop investing, but you've got to pick and choose
(24:35):
your spots.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Do you think this type of asset class will end
up in the four oh one k's of many Americans?
Speaker 10 (24:44):
I think that is I call it the next frontier.
I think from a technology standpoint, if you think about
private credit, it's a relative. I'm talking about more sponsor
direct lending. It's a pretty mature asset class at this point, right, right,
And I think where you're going to see innovation was
what I call technologies on reaching new investors or fund construction.
And so I do think four oh one case will
(25:05):
be the next horizon. But that's also where private equity
is also going into, right, And so will that help
a little bit with the supply demand?
Speaker 6 (25:13):
Yes, rightly?
Speaker 5 (25:14):
Right?
Speaker 4 (25:14):
Whether whether people want it or not in their four
o one case, I know, well it.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
Does though it creates another demand right for what's going
on there?
Speaker 5 (25:21):
Just get about a minute left?
Speaker 6 (25:23):
Can you can you share with us?
Speaker 3 (25:24):
I don't know an interesting deal that you recently did.
I don't know how specific you can get, but just
give us an idea in terms of maybe the type
of deal, terms or whatever you can share.
Speaker 10 (25:32):
Can't just not about a specific deal, but just what
we're seeing in the market right now is it's kindter intuitive,
but as the interest rates go lower, you're seeing leverage
creep up because bars can actually make their interest charges now.
And so before when interest rates were say four percent
on sofa, you didn't really see deals go over six
times because otherwise a barrow couldn't pay their interest. Now
(25:55):
it's actually going the other way, where you're getting lower yields,
but higher leverage just notes the level of competition. So
we're hoping that twenty twenty six there will be a
little bit more balance than deals. Yeah, but that's what
we're seeing in the moment.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
So does this assume too, that you think the Fed
will continue to rate to cut rates even into twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 10 (26:13):
I think it all depends on who gets appointed, you really, So.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Yeah, do you think is it is it a done
thing that if it's Kevin Hassett that you can assume
that there'll be lower rates just cut about thirty seconds.
Speaker 10 (26:28):
I'm not going to make an assumption around it, but
we all have an understanding of where the administration wants
this lower rates right, interesting time, and we'll see where
the underlying economy also says well. Hopefully we'll also dictate
wor the race of neflee.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
Land right that the Fed sticks to the band aate
and what needs to be done.
Speaker 5 (26:44):
Thank you so much, really appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
Christina Lee, Managing director and co portfolio manager for US
Private Debt Strategy over at oak Tree Capital Management.
Speaker 5 (26:53):
Joining us right here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
up after that.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five these during
this listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
So our Bloomberg Intelligence team writing earlier today that holiday
retail sales appear to be off to a good start
despite mixeddore traffic.
Speaker 5 (27:24):
There's a bunch of metrics coming at us.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
Your retail next coming out, saying visits to malls were
soft down three point six percent. MasterCard saying Black Friday's
online and instore sales res four point one percent. Salesforce
says global online spending will increase eight percent to reach
fifty three point seven billion, while US spending will rise.
Speaker 5 (27:43):
By four percent to thirteen point four billion. And then
there's Adobe Analytics team.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
They noted a sharp nine point one percent acceleration in
digital sales as consumers lean into the ease and convenience
of buying online. Well, someone who knows how to read
through all of these numbers does her own in depth
research too. She understands the retail industry. Dana Telsey is
back with us, founder, CEO and chief Research officer of
Telsea Advisory Group. She's been joining us here Atloomberg quite
a bit. Carol, going back to Black.
Speaker 6 (28:08):
Friday is her Wednesday.
Speaker 4 (28:09):
She's your Wednesday day here, he's here inside of the Monday.
She joins us here in the studio today.
Speaker 6 (28:14):
Thank you for having me. There's a lot of time.
I think you have a desk with your name on it.
It's easy, thank you and convenient on my office.
Speaker 5 (28:21):
We Love, we Love?
Speaker 3 (28:22):
Is there there are so many different metrics that come
at us. Is there a metric that catches your attention
more than most Or is it that you rely.
Speaker 5 (28:28):
Just on kind of the work you guys do.
Speaker 11 (28:30):
I rely on what we do, but I also look
at all the metrics to tell a story, and frankly,
what you're seeing the metrics tell the story of Essentially,
it was solidly optimistic for this upcoming holiday season. They're
good metrics. A lot of the metrics surpassed their expectations.
The other thing, when you look at online versus in store,
in store is always going to be lower than online
(28:52):
because online is a smaller part of the business. But
one of the differences this year is online sales the
rate of growth slow, going off a bigger base. While
you're looking at it in store, the rate of in
store sales increased for some traffic is holding steady with
what it's been here to date. And I think, for
whatever you want to say, the gen z ors the teens,
(29:13):
they like that experience of being in stores. That's what
I saw on Friday when I traveled all the stores.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
What do you mean by that? Like this is like
the same people who watch Friends ironically because they you know,
didn't watch it the first time around, are now going
to the mall.
Speaker 6 (29:27):
Like the teens are going on.
Speaker 4 (29:28):
Yeah, that's what I mean.
Speaker 11 (29:29):
Everyone wants the experience. I think what everyone missed from
COVID talking to each other saying this looks nice on you,
or look at this deal.
Speaker 6 (29:37):
That communication matters.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
So what's old is new again, Carol. They're going back
to the mall just like we did when we were kids.
Speaker 6 (29:43):
Well, I know who doesn't love them all?
Speaker 5 (29:44):
I don't love them all anymore.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
Having said that, though, Dana, like my daughter twenty two,
there were some that she was going to buy online,
but we went to Bloomingdale's to try it on and
she ended up like, Okay, this doesn't work and not
buying it. So it's like interesting kind of this mix
of how we're figuring it, how to shop.
Speaker 11 (30:00):
And it's always the surprise because when you buy something
you've had before, maybe you do get the same size
or you know what it is when you're buying something new.
And one of the things this year is there's newness
to wardrobing. You're looking at shoes where people are going
back to whether it's black brown suede boots like Steve
Madden is selling, whether it's wide legged denim jeans, it's
not just the same old, same old, and partially because
(30:23):
events are taking place.
Speaker 4 (30:24):
So we look at retail sales as this monolist, but
we know that's not the way that they're actually sliced.
What would you say characterizes the companies that are doing
a good job and actually bringing consumers through the door
versus the ones that are not newness?
Speaker 11 (30:40):
I think the newness and product innovation really matter, something
that they don't have in their closets. You think about
the newness even in consumer electronics, whether it's Nintendo, whether
it's or Rings, there's new things out there, same old,
same old. You're going to watch for the deals and
what the value you're getting. But today when you have
whether it's Coach adding new items to their Tabby collection,
(31:04):
whether it's Macy's who now has forty percent newness, twenty
new cosmetics brands in their stores, whether it happens to
be Steve Madden, which I mentioned with the brown Swede boots,
the closed Toad shoes at Birkenstock, or you look at Levi's,
which frankly has new collaborations that's driving demand. So what
are you showing me this year that you didn't show
me last year.
Speaker 3 (31:25):
What about promotions, because I have to say, leading up
to it, I saw some big promotions fifty to sixty
and they built through that through kind of the weekend.
Speaker 11 (31:32):
So we do a tracker eighty five retailers that we
track every holiday. We've been doing it for over ten years.
We did see promotions build, particularly in some of the
specialty apparel retailers, but not everyone. We saw some promotional increases,
whether it's the bathroom body Works, we saw it in
and you've seen a wider range of promotions instead of
maybe last year forty to fifty, maybe it's forty to
(31:54):
sixty percent. You're going to watch that. At the same time,
you know who had fear of promotions or less promotion,
Ralph Lauren thirty percent off instead of forty percent off
last year.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
So what's the picture that all of this paints of
the consumer.
Speaker 11 (32:08):
I think it paints a consumer who's a bifurcated consumer,
higher income continuing to spend lower income, basically being very
discerning and what they're spending on their particularly on essentials.
But it's also showing consumers want to celebrate the holiday
season and they'll think about January and January and they'll
spend for holiday.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
How much though I think about this a lot, I mean,
how are they buying? We saw some information about the
buy now, Pay Later continuing to be an important payment
option for consumers. Adobe forecasting twenty point two billion will
be spent through the payment method this holiday, eleven percent
growth over twenty twenty four.
Speaker 11 (32:47):
I think on the buy now, pay later, look who
it's going after. It's going after those consumers who have
more limited spending power, and it's picking up interest. You
are seeing companies who have had buy now, pay later
for a long time.
Speaker 6 (33:00):
It's still important everywhere.
Speaker 11 (33:01):
Now it is everywhere, so it's not as differentiated as
it had been in the past.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
It's not a sign of anything in your view.
Speaker 11 (33:07):
No, I'm watching credit card delinquencies a lot. We're looking
to see what that looks like. We're watching, certainly what
consumer spending looks like. And if anything, you're still seeing
some pretty solid results. Take a look at the retailer's
earnings the past few weeks, Well, they've been mixed. Some
of the outliers, I mean, who would have thought Coals
basically showed some improvement and we've seen some good results.
(33:28):
More to come this week because this is everyone from
Macy's Victorious Secret Alta Signet are all reporting and we'll
get some more color on discretion. So it feels pretty
good it our character driven price increases, I mean to
demand elasticity is something to be watching carefully.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
So that's definitely there is this. Does it feel like
a season where folks were like, holidays are important, and
so I'm budgeting so that I can spend here.
Speaker 5 (33:54):
And maybe I won't do something else.
Speaker 11 (33:55):
I think there's some of that, but I think they're
also spending saying I'll pay it back later. I think
they want to celebrate given it's been a tough year
with a lot going at consumers all at the same time.
Speaker 4 (34:06):
So you said that Nintendo has done a good job
this year bringing consumers through the door, companies including Steve Madden,
Levi's Ralph Lauren Rough. Lauren, what are the hot products?
Speaker 11 (34:17):
Says we look to have to say, la boo boo, Oh,
la boo boo is the hot product?
Speaker 4 (34:21):
Yeah, okay, it is.
Speaker 6 (34:22):
I don't even know what a lot boo boo. It's
like a little bit.
Speaker 11 (34:24):
It's a collectible thing, a collectible yep. It could be
on handbags, backpacks. Guys and girls wear La Boo boo
or have La boo boos.
Speaker 6 (34:32):
And it is the hospital.
Speaker 5 (34:34):
No, I don't no, I.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
Don't know, but it's just kind of well, now I
know what I'm getting each of you.
Speaker 6 (34:38):
For the holidays.
Speaker 11 (34:39):
Thank you.
Speaker 6 (34:41):
Is there like an it thing? Is that that is
the it thing?
Speaker 11 (34:44):
The little Boo boo is the it thing? I mean,
there's other things out there that are certainly trending. Legos
are always trending and are very popular. So who can't
take that away? When it's gotten colder out, so you're
definitely seeing sweaters and outerwear takes center stage.
Speaker 5 (34:59):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
In a Telsea founder, CEO and Chief Research Officer of
Telsea Advisory Group.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday
afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
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You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(35:24):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine
that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies,
and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business finance
and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week
Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg
(00:31):
Radio Field.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Kind of mellow this Monday after Thanksgiving, and it's not
like there's a good meeting in a week and a
half too.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
Is everyone just they're bringing turkey for lunch for leftovers. Yeah,
and they're falling asleep at their desk because of the
ingredient in turkey that makes you fall asleep, supposedly, I
don't know if that's true.
Speaker 5 (00:50):
It could be.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (00:51):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (00:52):
Maybe maybe watch any football.
Speaker 5 (00:54):
We didn't really watch football.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
I was in Ohio, so we had to watch the
Ohio State Michigan game.
Speaker 5 (00:58):
For your wife for.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
A while, for every family, for anybody you walked into,
anybody you've ran into in the entire state, if you
were walking down the street. That's how it works there.
Speaker 5 (01:09):
It's a big ye fall state.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Go you go Ohio State, is what I have to say.
Speaker 5 (01:14):
Well, yeah, it was a lot of football this past weekend.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Let's let's go talk a little bit about the markets,
because we've been bouncing around here and it does look
like we're counting down in next week's SPED meeting.
Speaker 5 (01:23):
With US right now is Doug Sioca.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
He's chief executive officer partner at Kavar Capital Partners. The
firm has about one point six billion in assets under management.
He joins US from Leewood, Kansas. Doug, there is so
much going on, so many important things. You've got that
next FED meeting, next FED share, the spend on AI,
the crypto fallout, so many important things. But we've got
(01:45):
to start Tim with what's really the most important thing,
and that is the Kansas City Chiefs. We got to
ask they're in danger of missing the playoffs for the
first time in more than a decade. They've been in
the last three Super Bowls. I'm always rooting for them,
watching them play. They always come back, Yet this year
seems like it's something different. How painful is that for you?
Speaker 6 (02:07):
You know, it's tough.
Speaker 7 (02:10):
It's more painful to hear Tim ruding for the Ohio.
Speaker 8 (02:12):
State book guy, Come on, Isabelle, but we do.
Speaker 7 (02:16):
He's still a lot of counts in our Chiefs. It's
it's funny and maybe an a lot of markets. There's
mean reversion that tends to take place. And the Chiefs
have lost six games, all within one score, and really
the last seven or eight years they've seen win all
those one score games. So they may have used up
some of this year's luck and prior seasons, but we're
still a long way to go. If I think that
(02:37):
if they can win ten eleven games, they have a
decent chance to get into the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
So we're still hopeful.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Wow, what's easier the market? The equity market continuing to
move to the upside, or the Chiefs actually getting a
chance at another Super Bowl?
Speaker 7 (02:53):
Hey? You know, I mean this look the stock market,
and we wrote a piece a couple of months ago.
It just talked about these all time highs, and certainly
there's an obsession about where we go and you get
to those inflection points, which is defensible, right, but you know,
it's how could we not be at all time highs
and we have earnings growing as fast as they have,
We have a fed that's in a very accomodative posture.
We have low taxes and regulation, and we're in the
(03:16):
midst of one of the greatest ever like tangible technological
revolutions our country in the world has ever seen. So
are not too terribly surprised that we're at all time highs,
Nor are we too terribly surprised when we see a
little bit of consternation and maybe some in intermittent volatility
that transpires around these levels.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
So okay, so let's broaden this out a little bit
and think about the people who are in control of
interest rates, and that would be, of course, the Federal Reserve.
We spoke with Christina Lee a little earlier, and it
seems like Carol people are pretty set on the fact
that it could be Kevin Hasset, the president of City's
made a decision. Yeah, we just don't know who that is.
(03:53):
Now Kevin Hassett as FED chair. Does it change your view?
What do you? What do you make of it?
Speaker 7 (03:59):
You know, we knew whoever President Trump was going to
pick was going to be very dubbish, and Kevin certainly
came to the top of almost all lists over the
course the last couple months.
Speaker 8 (04:09):
I didn't think anyone.
Speaker 7 (04:10):
Ever thought Miron was going to get the nod as
the Cherokee likely would never get confirmed. Kevin Walsh seen
to fall off the table. Going back to the fighting Irish.
I had a saft spot for Chris Waller since he
used to teach economics at the university, but I think
Kevin Hass.
Speaker 8 (04:23):
Would be a very good choice.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
And I do think.
Speaker 7 (04:26):
Look, I mean the FED wants to cut rates, Carol
mentioned on the lead in We've got a FED meeting
the next week and a half. I think that the
Fed we've got this theory that they're in this sort of.
Speaker 8 (04:36):
This triangulation of FED tension.
Speaker 7 (04:39):
Right. As I mentioned, we have a really strong economy,
but it's very uneven in its benefit distribution. We have
a fear of excellss liquidity if we see a lowering
of interest rates. But it's also a time where it's
a very very significant cohort of the consumer that is
dying for a little reprieve with lower rates because they
(04:59):
have of floating rate depth, because they have jobs, and
it'll keep up with the cost of living in the
increasing price of things because they don't have money in
the market. Right. And then the third thing is we
have this incredible technological revolution. It's ubiquitous in its industry application,
and it's unprecedented in its efficiency elevation.
Speaker 6 (05:20):
But it's exacerbating unemployment.
Speaker 7 (05:23):
Right, So the Fed really is at a consternation point.
I think they do want to cut rates. They've talked
about doing it as an insurance cut. We think of
it more like a cohort cut to a certain very
important part of the underlying consumer.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Well, what does the path look like beyond December?
Speaker 7 (05:37):
Then, yeah, that's a great that's a really good question, Tim,
you know, I think again, maybe that comes back to
Hassett where you know, interestingly, President Trump had said for
a while in some of his his detigradation of Chair
Powell that shoot, we need to be closer to where
Japan is in Europe is, and we need to cut
rates by three and fifty basis points. While we look
(05:58):
at the bottom market this morning or in the midst
of one of the biggest sell offs we've had in
the last couple of months, because there was an expectation
over night that Japan is going to hike rates. So
if we have sort of a monetary policy that's not
globally coordinated, that could create a little more consternation to
fixed income markets, but it could underscore the need for
(06:19):
the US to be able to accommodative more so than
we otherwise would have to be if the rest of
world was on the same page.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Hey, I want to go back to though I don't disagree,
I think a lot of people don't disagree that when
you look at the K shaped economy, that there are
many folks that are struggling in this economic environment.
Speaker 5 (06:34):
And you're right, Doug, they're not in the equity markets.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
We now are talking about the three A pillars, whether
it's you know, acid prices going up because of the
spend on AI and that is making the rich people
even richer affluent, and so you know, they have a
lot of money to spend, and we know the wealthier
consumer is really important to the overall consumer spend. Having
(06:59):
said that, society wise, socially, it's important right to take
care of all citizens because there's a lot of Americans
that aren't in the equity market. Having said that, the
Fed's mandate is to watch inflation and to watch the
labor market. And is there a risk if they go
on a trajectory of cutting rates, if they just do
(07:21):
it in December. Do you think there's any risk of
creating some excess liquidity in a market where you say,
earnings look good and there's a lot of good stuff
out there. So is there, you know, the possibility of
a risk and who knows how that plays out and
what kind of a crisis.
Speaker 5 (07:37):
Maybe none, but I just wonder.
Speaker 6 (07:39):
I love it's crisis, like Carol.
Speaker 7 (07:41):
But I do think again, this goes back to this
tension that the FED is really.
Speaker 8 (07:45):
Walking a tightrope because to your.
Speaker 7 (07:47):
Point, I do think widespread prosperity is one of the
things that makes our.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
Country so special.
Speaker 7 (07:54):
With that expectation that is it is creating to reach
for full participation. I think the issue becomes like if
things used to become on affordable that you're helping this
important color with one hand and you're knocking them back
with the other.
Speaker 6 (08:09):
So that's the part.
Speaker 7 (08:11):
Where they unfortunately have a pretty blunt instrument. Yeah, there
might be other ways, right, whether that is just balance
sheet management of things along those lines, whether that becomes
some of the entore that takes place with fiscal policy
incentives to increase employment because it is a really challenging time,
without question, No.
Speaker 6 (08:28):
And listen. Totally agree.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
It's got of the wealth has to spread out to
a lot more folks across the country. Doug Cioka always
appreciate it, ca our capital partners.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
up after this.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five East during
Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Let's get now to developments in AI big tech. As
the king of AI bel whether as we're talking about,
Nvidia invested two billion dollars in chip design software maker
Synopsis as part of a broader engineering and designed tie
up aiming tim to infuse its AI computing technology into
more industries.
Speaker 4 (09:15):
With the Tech Roundup, we had to the Bloomberg News
studio and bureau in San Francisco, where we find the
co host of Bloomberg Tech, Ed Ludlow, ed, why is
Nvidia doing this? Why?
Speaker 9 (09:24):
Now, Yeah, I guess there's a question of why is
Nvidia doing this? And then what does Synopsis get out
of it? You know, so, like Synopsis makes the software
by which chips are designed but also validated. So before
you send a chip through the fab to be manufactured,
you want to know that that design works. And that's
a big part of what Synopsis does with all kinds
of tech companies. And so part of the interpretation of
(09:47):
why is Nvidia doing this is it's a sales channel
because Synopsis is basically saying, imagine how good our software
would be if it was underpinned by Nvidia's GPUs and
in Vidia's catalog of software, which largely it is called
Kuda X. It's basically a library of building blocks for
AI that just make existing software platforms better. And so
(10:08):
the next thing you're going to ask me about it's
probably circular financing. But from perspective, you know, it gives
them entry to a tool or a platform that lots
of people are using.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
So circular finance, I mean, come on, like Carols, did it?
Speaker 6 (10:24):
Is it just getting crazy or so?
Speaker 9 (10:28):
I don't know the parties on this specific deal in
video and Synopsis would say this is not circular financing.
In the same way that the graphic you're showing to
our video audience illustrates, there is no requirement that Synopsis purchases.
Speaker 8 (10:43):
From Nvidia in videos GPUs.
Speaker 9 (10:46):
Additionally, and this is all according to Nvidia CEO Jensen
Wong who was speaking this morning. Additionally, as I said,
Synopsis does business with all kinds of chip makers, and
Nvidia also does business with other makers of chip design
in software Semens is one, for example, And none of
that's going to change. Everyone is free to carry on
as they want. And it goes back to the why
(11:07):
is in video doing this? You know, this is an
area of the technology where we call electronic design automation
EDA software and a lot of people feel that those
systems which have historically been run on CPUs old engineering
platforms could be a lot better if they were run
on GPUs or AI accelerators. They're just better pieces of
(11:28):
software as a result. But there are loads of players
now everyone's free to have better software.
Speaker 8 (11:33):
Is how in video would put it?
Speaker 10 (11:35):
Well?
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Why, I mean Synopsis wants to have Envidea as a customer, right,
so why did they need it? Like what does that
two billion dollar investment doo?
Speaker 9 (11:47):
So now this is like highly analogous with the Intel situation,
and it's highly analogous with the Nokia situation. And so
this year I've had two specific opportunities to ask Jensen Wang,
what's the rationale taking a steak, like why do you
need to own between two and three percent of these companies?
And his answer is always I thought it would be
(12:09):
a great investment and that in the future that investment
will pay off. So in Nvidia got these synops of
shares at four one hundred and fourteen dollars and seventy
nine cents apiece.
Speaker 8 (12:19):
The stock's now higher than that. I can't see it
on the screen, four hundred and forty dollars a piece.
Speaker 9 (12:23):
But I remember back in October when we're in DC,
I asked the same question of Jensen, why did you
have to take almost three percent of Nokia? And he
was like, well, it looks like a pretty genius move now,
doesn't it, because Nokia shares are up twenty percent, And
I just like in the moment, I couldn't believe that
was his answer, But he genuinely believes that it's going
to be a great investment because he sees those engineering
(12:43):
partnerships changing the respective fields that they're going into.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
Okay, Ed, we only have three minutes left, but there's
two more stories we want to hear with you. One
is deep Seek because China's deep Seek unveiled two new
versions of an experimental AI model that it released weeks ago.
It adds fresh capabilities a startup set would help with
combining reasoning and executing certain actions autonomously. I'm old enough
to remember earlier this year when a deep Sea update
comes out and tank shares of Nvidia. We don't see that,
(13:09):
and we haven't seen that. Where is deep Seek when
it comes to competition?
Speaker 9 (13:14):
Okay, so deep Seek the three point two has been
out for a number of weeks now in the form
of deep sec v three point two exp Experimental. They
just dropped the exp bit and it's an open source
model that against benchmarking, performs very well against GBT five
Open AI islaers model. Where they've made a difference in
(13:34):
this open source world is that, like open AI, deep
Seak wants to make the tool more useful, so they
had the human reasoning element. It parrots the behavior of
a human, but it replies the tool in a more
useful way. Markets reacted in January through April the way
they did because they didn't understand how deep Seek had
achieved that performance for a model at the low cost
(13:55):
point that it did.
Speaker 5 (13:58):
That, does the world need to be worried?
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Those are our guests, like, how does this fit in?
How competitive?
Speaker 9 (14:05):
Is it?
Speaker 10 (14:05):
Real?
Speaker 8 (14:06):
Quickly, it's competitive.
Speaker 9 (14:08):
Models at this scale have tens of billions of parameters
or more. And what Deepseek did is called mixture of
experts or MOZ designs, where if you have one hundred
billion parameter model, when you run the inference, you actually
run it, you don't need to access all one hundred
billion parameters. They found a way of just accessing say
ten billion parameters or sixty billion parameters, which makes the
cost of running it in the compute much more efficient.
(14:30):
So the model is as performance, it's just easier to run.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
I do feel like everything's now about efficiency in terms
of power use, in just getting things done. Hey, what
do we need to know about Nasiyoshi's son, the soft
Bank founder who said he wouldn't have sold off in
video shares of his company had unlimited money to bankroll
its next investments in artificial intelligence? Is there something important
here that we should acknowledge?
Speaker 9 (14:52):
All you need to know is that he wishes he
hadn't sold it, but he didn't have enough money. He
needed more money, so he sold the thing that could
get him money and video shares, and then he used
it to invest in the thing he thinks will make
him more money in the future.
Speaker 8 (15:04):
Open AI. And it's as simple as that.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
All Right, I love it.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
Even he needs more money? What does that say?
Speaker 5 (15:11):
How about buy now?
Speaker 4 (15:13):
That's just society. This is the world we live in.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Everybody needs more money, all right, Gonna leave it there.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Ed always glad we can go around the world of
technology with you. Ed Lolove.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
Of course, he is co host of Bloomberg Tech at
Bloomberg Television. Catch Ed and Caroline Hyde eleven am Wall
Street Time every Monday through Friday on Bloomberg TV.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
each weekday starting at two pm Eastern up on Apple
car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven
thirty Well.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Bloomberg opinion piece grabbed our attention today, Paul J. Davies
He's based in London. He writes that quote, the lack
of transparency in private credit is one and that investors
and journalists could be more fearful than is warranted by
historical performance. But there's illustrating data too, illuminating data rather
from analysts and ratings companies that show the outlook for
repayment problems and bankruptcies isn't great. In fact, it's getting worse.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
That Again from his column, Davis goes on to write
that he's quote talking about junk rated loans made by
private credit funds, mostly mid sized companies, often used to
fund private equity buyouts, and similar to the leverage loans
at banks underwrite and sell to investors. To be fair,
there's a lot of questions that have emerged in recent
weeks about private credit, and we have yet to see
kind of a systemic issue or problem, at least that's
(16:37):
what we hear from a lot of the voices we
talked to.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
Let's bring in Christina Lee. She's managing director and co
portfolio manager for US private debt strategy over at oak
Tree Capital Management affirm that's gotten more than two hundred
billion dollars in assets under management. Welcome, it's good to
have you.
Speaker 10 (16:51):
Well, thank you so much for having me here.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
You must have been watching the events over the last
few weeks. With great interest, And I'm wondering just your
view on the chatter around greater concerns when it comes
to private credit. And again I'm using the term like,
you know, a monolith, but not all private credit is
the same.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (17:09):
I think it's been called the Great cocker Chores, you
name it. I think one of the issues that I
think people are having is there's been some high profile
bankruptcies that I've had recently, and people are saying, is
this systemic? Is this a pattern of what's next? I
think sometimes you do have to take a step back
and remember we're doing some investment grade credit. You are
(17:31):
taking risk. There will be defaults, there will be restructurings.
You don't get eight to nine percent all in yields
by not taking risk.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Okay, So having said that, when you guys, especially you know,
in terms of private credit, I think what really tripped
a lot of investors or investments up in the private world,
private credit, private equity for that matter, is.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
That there weren't the exits that were normally there.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
Right, we've seen them pushed off and I think it's
starting to come back. But then you had renegotiated you
just like all these things started to happen, and you
just wonder whether it gets a little bit fuzzier and
that there is more opportunities or more touch points for
things to come undone roll that in and how we
should be thinking about that part of it.
Speaker 10 (18:14):
I think defaults have been very very low in private credit,
and if you were to look at various managers their
loss ratios, et cetera, default rates would probably all be
relatively similar. And that's because private credit hasn't really been
through a downturn yet, right the advent of the class
when it really started booming was maybe ten years ago.
Speaker 8 (18:34):
I think COVID was too short.
Speaker 10 (18:36):
I think what you're seeing right now also is defaults
will likely rise because a lot of these bars put
in capital structures when it was a zero interest rate environment,
which is you know, now it's higher for longer, and
I think that's why you're seeing defaults and some cracks emerge.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
Does it get worse though, because you're right, an investment
in a zero rate where money costs nothing is very
different from where.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
We are today, right, It's just the business.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Dynamics and the financial dynamics of a deal looks very different.
So do we see more cracks going forward, is Jamie
diamond Wright that there's never just one cockroach.
Speaker 10 (19:10):
I think you likely will see some cracks, but what
will be dependent is the cracks have been massed, the
cracks have been around for a year or two. Is
there's a lot of liquidity in private credit and even
in private equity. They weren't necessarily deploying in new investments,
but they were helping the resisting investments.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Forgive me for when does too much liquidity, though, become
a problem where you're chasing after there's so much more
folks involved in the private market world, private credit, private equity,
and when there's a lot of money around, it's like
people are chasing deals and maybe more likely to take
on even more risks.
Speaker 6 (19:45):
So when does it get messy or does it not?
Speaker 5 (19:47):
In this world? Maybe it's something different.
Speaker 10 (19:49):
I think right now what you're seeing is there's still
a supply demand and balance. As you had mentioned, there's
less exits, there's less M and A and so private
credit dry powder has increased. But if we were to
look at kind of the exit piece that private equity
needs to do, M and A should increase starting in
twenty twenty six, and that supply demand imbalance should lessen.
(20:12):
But right now, what you're seeing is there's really an
imbalance right now, and so you are seeing that competitive
nature of private credit. And does that mean looser underwriting
standards a lot of time, yes, which you note.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
Howard Marx, the co chairman, principal, co founder of oak
Tree Capital Management, out just last month, it was in
the beginning of November, with a traditionally long memo about
private credit, but in bold on the second page he writes, So, no,
I don't think this is necessarily the beginning of a trend.
And by the way, it's called cockroaches in the coal mine.
(20:47):
It's not an indictment of the whole sub investment grade
debt market or the whole private credit market. Rather, it's
just a reminder that the yield spreads people care about
so much are there for a reason, because sub investment
grade debt entails credit risk. You agree, this is essentially
just part of investing in this type of debt.
Speaker 10 (21:05):
Exactly if you don't take on risk, that usually means
that you're yielding something lower. Right, it goes hand in hand,
And I think because we've been in such a benign
market where that you haven't seen a lot of defaults,
et cetera. That's why people, I think are surprised.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
So then what's the what's the what are the products
or what are what's the credit that investors should avoid
right now?
Speaker 10 (21:25):
Like?
Speaker 4 (21:25):
How do you separate because of another? A criticism I
guess you could say is that there's not a lot
of transparency necessarily with this type of investment. So then
how do investors know what they should invest in and
what they should stay away from?
Speaker 10 (21:41):
Yeah, I think one of the things to look out
for is one of the questions. I think that we
all talk about our valuation works. Right, is there transparency?
Is there not transparency?
Speaker 8 (21:51):
I always as.
Speaker 10 (21:52):
Tell people to ask them what is your valuation methodology?
How often are you looking at your valuation? Because in
the end, we are in a private eliquis market, there's
no mark to market, there is no market, and so
there is a subjectiveness and a judgment on the manager.
And I think a lot of it is do they
mark their investments aggressively or are they conservative?
Speaker 5 (22:13):
Right?
Speaker 4 (22:13):
How do you know?
Speaker 10 (22:14):
I think you have to ask your questions of how
what methodology does to you? Do you discounted cash flow?
How much does current field matter? What is your recovery rates?
Speaker 4 (22:22):
So this is what wrote about last week.
Speaker 3 (22:24):
Well, yeah, yes, but this is where, like I think
about Christina, that a firm, whether it's oak Tree or
somebody else, Right, if you're you're playing games in terms
of valuations or not being so transparent or whatever for
your investors, the deals aren't going to pay off, right,
and investors are not going to give you any more money.
So is that kind of a checks and balance in
some way in terms of ensuring you guys are doing
(22:48):
the work like they trust a manager. Yeah, and that
you guys are making sure you have the transparency before
you go into a deal.
Speaker 10 (22:56):
Exactly, because if you are way too aggressive and all
your marks are inflated, you'll have a really hard time
with your investors, right, right. That is reputation risk. And
also just inherently as a creditor, you are always worried
about kind of what's next, what's the next risk, because
your upside is getting what's contractually due to you, right,
(23:17):
So a lot of just inherently as a credit investor,
you tend to be conservative.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Because that's why it's you know, and some of the
conversations we've had in trying to figure out, like there
are there more cockroaches out there that maybe some of
what some have said is smaller players that maybe maybe
don't do as much homework or something that that's where
we might see some problems. Talk to us about the
market overall, where you guys are finding opportunities right now
(23:43):
and what kind of kind of opportunities. And I'm curious
if it tells you kind of what this investment environment.
Is it a healthy one? Is it a stressed one?
Like I'm just curious.
Speaker 10 (23:53):
I would say right now, it is, there's a supply demand,
a balance, So what does that mean. It's very competitive.
If you think about the first nine months of the
year with the tariffs, right with all of the uncertainty,
M and A went to a screeching halt for the
most part. Now M and A has kind of come
back after Labor Day, and so now you're seeing what
I call a little bit of fomo where you're seeing
(24:14):
a lot of lenders rush to get deals done. And
I think this is the time that you want to
be very selective, you want to be a credit picker,
because the terms are getting more aggressive, Leverage is going up,
pricing is going down, and so from like oak Tree's
philosophy standpoint is, you really need to be selective. It's
it's a yellow light. Proceed with caution. You're not going
to stop investing, but you've got to pick and choose
(24:35):
your spots.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Do you think this type of asset class will end
up in the four oh one k's of many Americans?
Speaker 10 (24:44):
I think that is I call it the next frontier.
I think from a technology standpoint, if you think about
private credit, it's a relative. I'm talking about more sponsor
direct lending. It's a pretty mature asset class at this point, right, right,
And I think where you're going to see innovation was
what I call technologies on reaching new investors or fund construction.
And so I do think four oh one case will
(25:05):
be the next horizon. But that's also where private equity
is also going into, right, And so will that help
a little bit with the supply demand?
Speaker 6 (25:13):
Yes, rightly?
Speaker 5 (25:14):
Right?
Speaker 4 (25:14):
Whether whether people want it or not in their four
o one case, I know, well it.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
Does though it creates another demand right for what's going
on there?
Speaker 5 (25:21):
Just get about a minute left?
Speaker 6 (25:23):
Can you can you share with us?
Speaker 3 (25:24):
I don't know an interesting deal that you recently did.
I don't know how specific you can get, but just
give us an idea in terms of maybe the type
of deal, terms or whatever you can share.
Speaker 10 (25:32):
Can't just not about a specific deal, but just what
we're seeing in the market right now is it's kindter intuitive,
but as the interest rates go lower, you're seeing leverage
creep up because bars can actually make their interest charges now.
And so before when interest rates were say four percent
on sofa, you didn't really see deals go over six
times because otherwise a barrow couldn't pay their interest. Now
(25:55):
it's actually going the other way, where you're getting lower yields,
but higher leverage just notes the level of competition. So
we're hoping that twenty twenty six there will be a
little bit more balance than deals. Yeah, but that's what
we're seeing in the moment.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
So does this assume too, that you think the Fed
will continue to rate to cut rates even into twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 10 (26:13):
I think it all depends on who gets appointed, you really, So.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Yeah, do you think is it is it a done
thing that if it's Kevin Hassett that you can assume
that there'll be lower rates just cut about thirty seconds.
Speaker 10 (26:28):
I'm not going to make an assumption around it, but
we all have an understanding of where the administration wants
this lower rates right, interesting time, and we'll see where
the underlying economy also says well. Hopefully we'll also dictate
wor the race of neflee.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
Land right that the Fed sticks to the band aate
and what needs to be done.
Speaker 5 (26:44):
Thank you so much, really appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
Christina Lee, Managing director and co portfolio manager for US
Private Debt Strategy over at oak Tree Capital Management.
Speaker 5 (26:53):
Joining us right here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
up after that.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five these during
this listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
So our Bloomberg Intelligence team writing earlier today that holiday
retail sales appear to be off to a good start
despite mixeddore traffic.
Speaker 5 (27:24):
There's a bunch of metrics coming at us.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
Your retail next coming out, saying visits to malls were
soft down three point six percent. MasterCard saying Black Friday's
online and instore sales res four point one percent. Salesforce
says global online spending will increase eight percent to reach
fifty three point seven billion, while US spending will rise.
Speaker 5 (27:43):
By four percent to thirteen point four billion. And then
there's Adobe Analytics team.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
They noted a sharp nine point one percent acceleration in
digital sales as consumers lean into the ease and convenience
of buying online. Well, someone who knows how to read
through all of these numbers does her own in depth
research too. She understands the retail industry. Dana Telsey is
back with us, founder, CEO and chief Research officer of
Telsea Advisory Group. She's been joining us here Atloomberg quite
a bit. Carol, going back to Black.
Speaker 6 (28:08):
Friday is her Wednesday.
Speaker 4 (28:09):
She's your Wednesday day here, he's here inside of the Monday.
She joins us here in the studio today.
Speaker 6 (28:14):
Thank you for having me. There's a lot of time.
I think you have a desk with your name on it.
It's easy, thank you and convenient on my office.
Speaker 5 (28:21):
We Love, we Love?
Speaker 3 (28:22):
Is there there are so many different metrics that come
at us. Is there a metric that catches your attention
more than most Or is it that you rely.
Speaker 5 (28:28):
Just on kind of the work you guys do.
Speaker 11 (28:30):
I rely on what we do, but I also look
at all the metrics to tell a story, and frankly,
what you're seeing the metrics tell the story of Essentially,
it was solidly optimistic for this upcoming holiday season. They're
good metrics. A lot of the metrics surpassed their expectations.
The other thing, when you look at online versus in store,
in store is always going to be lower than online
(28:52):
because online is a smaller part of the business. But
one of the differences this year is online sales the
rate of growth slow, going off a bigger base. While
you're looking at it in store, the rate of in
store sales increased for some traffic is holding steady with
what it's been here to date. And I think, for
whatever you want to say, the gen z ors the teens,
(29:13):
they like that experience of being in stores. That's what
I saw on Friday when I traveled all the stores.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
What do you mean by that? Like this is like
the same people who watch Friends ironically because they you know,
didn't watch it the first time around, are now going
to the mall.
Speaker 6 (29:27):
Like the teens are going on.
Speaker 4 (29:28):
Yeah, that's what I mean.
Speaker 11 (29:29):
Everyone wants the experience. I think what everyone missed from
COVID talking to each other saying this looks nice on you,
or look at this deal.
Speaker 6 (29:37):
That communication matters.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
So what's old is new again, Carol. They're going back
to the mall just like we did when we were kids.
Speaker 6 (29:43):
Well, I know who doesn't love them all?
Speaker 5 (29:44):
I don't love them all anymore.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
Having said that, though, Dana, like my daughter twenty two,
there were some that she was going to buy online,
but we went to Bloomingdale's to try it on and
she ended up like, Okay, this doesn't work and not
buying it. So it's like interesting kind of this mix
of how we're figuring it, how to shop.
Speaker 11 (30:00):
And it's always the surprise because when you buy something
you've had before, maybe you do get the same size
or you know what it is when you're buying something new.
And one of the things this year is there's newness
to wardrobing. You're looking at shoes where people are going
back to whether it's black brown suede boots like Steve
Madden is selling, whether it's wide legged denim jeans, it's
not just the same old, same old, and partially because
(30:23):
events are taking place.
Speaker 4 (30:24):
So we look at retail sales as this monolist, but
we know that's not the way that they're actually sliced.
What would you say characterizes the companies that are doing
a good job and actually bringing consumers through the door
versus the ones that are not newness?
Speaker 11 (30:40):
I think the newness and product innovation really matter, something
that they don't have in their closets. You think about
the newness even in consumer electronics, whether it's Nintendo, whether
it's or Rings, there's new things out there, same old,
same old. You're going to watch for the deals and
what the value you're getting. But today when you have
whether it's Coach adding new items to their Tabby collection,
(31:04):
whether it's Macy's who now has forty percent newness, twenty
new cosmetics brands in their stores, whether it happens to
be Steve Madden, which I mentioned with the brown Swede boots,
the closed Toad shoes at Birkenstock, or you look at Levi's,
which frankly has new collaborations that's driving demand. So what
are you showing me this year that you didn't show
me last year.
Speaker 3 (31:25):
What about promotions, because I have to say, leading up
to it, I saw some big promotions fifty to sixty
and they built through that through kind of the weekend.
Speaker 11 (31:32):
So we do a tracker eighty five retailers that we
track every holiday. We've been doing it for over ten years.
We did see promotions build, particularly in some of the
specialty apparel retailers, but not everyone. We saw some promotional increases,
whether it's the bathroom body Works, we saw it in
and you've seen a wider range of promotions instead of
maybe last year forty to fifty, maybe it's forty to
(31:54):
sixty percent. You're going to watch that. At the same time,
you know who had fear of promotions or less promotion,
Ralph Lauren thirty percent off instead of forty percent off
last year.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
So what's the picture that all of this paints of
the consumer.
Speaker 11 (32:08):
I think it paints a consumer who's a bifurcated consumer,
higher income continuing to spend lower income, basically being very
discerning and what they're spending on their particularly on essentials.
But it's also showing consumers want to celebrate the holiday
season and they'll think about January and January and they'll
spend for holiday.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
How much though I think about this a lot, I mean,
how are they buying? We saw some information about the
buy now, Pay Later continuing to be an important payment
option for consumers. Adobe forecasting twenty point two billion will
be spent through the payment method this holiday, eleven percent
growth over twenty twenty four.
Speaker 11 (32:47):
I think on the buy now, pay later, look who
it's going after. It's going after those consumers who have
more limited spending power, and it's picking up interest. You
are seeing companies who have had buy now, pay later
for a long time.
Speaker 6 (33:00):
It's still important everywhere.
Speaker 11 (33:01):
Now it is everywhere, so it's not as differentiated as
it had been in the past.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
It's not a sign of anything in your view.
Speaker 11 (33:07):
No, I'm watching credit card delinquencies a lot. We're looking
to see what that looks like. We're watching, certainly what
consumer spending looks like. And if anything, you're still seeing
some pretty solid results. Take a look at the retailer's
earnings the past few weeks, Well, they've been mixed. Some
of the outliers, I mean, who would have thought Coals
basically showed some improvement and we've seen some good results.
(33:28):
More to come this week because this is everyone from
Macy's Victorious Secret Alta Signet are all reporting and we'll
get some more color on discretion. So it feels pretty
good it our character driven price increases, I mean to
demand elasticity is something to be watching carefully.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
So that's definitely there is this. Does it feel like
a season where folks were like, holidays are important, and
so I'm budgeting so that I can spend here.
Speaker 5 (33:54):
And maybe I won't do something else.
Speaker 11 (33:55):
I think there's some of that, but I think they're
also spending saying I'll pay it back later. I think
they want to celebrate given it's been a tough year
with a lot going at consumers all at the same time.
Speaker 4 (34:06):
So you said that Nintendo has done a good job
this year bringing consumers through the door, companies including Steve Madden,
Levi's Ralph Lauren Rough. Lauren, what are the hot products?
Speaker 11 (34:17):
Says we look to have to say, la boo boo, Oh,
la boo boo is the hot product?
Speaker 4 (34:21):
Yeah, okay, it is.
Speaker 6 (34:22):
I don't even know what a lot boo boo. It's
like a little bit.
Speaker 11 (34:24):
It's a collectible thing, a collectible yep. It could be
on handbags, backpacks. Guys and girls wear La Boo boo
or have La boo boos.
Speaker 6 (34:32):
And it is the hospital.
Speaker 5 (34:34):
No, I don't no, I.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
Don't know, but it's just kind of well, now I
know what I'm getting each of you.
Speaker 6 (34:38):
For the holidays.
Speaker 11 (34:39):
Thank you.
Speaker 6 (34:41):
Is there like an it thing? Is that that is
the it thing?
Speaker 11 (34:44):
The little Boo boo is the it thing? I mean,
there's other things out there that are certainly trending. Legos
are always trending and are very popular. So who can't
take that away? When it's gotten colder out, so you're
definitely seeing sweaters and outerwear takes center stage.
Speaker 5 (34:59):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
In a Telsea founder, CEO and Chief Research Officer of
Telsea Advisory Group.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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(35:24):
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Hosts And Creators
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Carol Massar
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