August 21, 2025 • 39 mins
Watch Bloomberg Businessweek Daily LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Caution prevailed on Wall Street ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech, with stocks falling and bond yields rising as a key factory report raised concern that inflation pressures could dim the outlook for rate cuts.
The fastest growth in manufacturing since 2022 drove Treasuries lower, with 10-year yields up four basis points to 4.33%. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland chief Beth Hammack said she wouldn’t support easing if officials had to decide tomorrow. The S&P 500 slipped for a fifth straight day, its longest slide since January. Most big techs slid. Walmart Inc. tumbled on a profit miss.
While data showed an increase in jobless claims — adding to signs of a slowing labor market — the solid factory purchasing managers index saw traders reducing their bets on rate cuts. Money markets showed a roughly 70% chance of a reduction in September. A week ago the odds were above 90%.
Today's show features:
- Bloomberg Surveillance Co-Host Tom Keene on the opening of the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
- Alli McCartney, Managing Director of Wealth Management with Alignment Partners at UBS, on the market outlook for the rest of 2025 amid geopolitical uncertainty
- Oliver Friesen, CEO at Guardian Metal Resources, the global critical-mineral supply chain
- Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Retail Staples & Packaged Food Analyst Jennifer Bartashus and Bloomberg News Consumer Reporter Jeannette Neumann on some of the week’s key retail earnings and the state of the American consumer
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business
Weekdaily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay
ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping
today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news
(00:23):
as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with
Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
All Eyes on Jackson holl As the FED kicks off
its Economic Symposium. It's the flagship event for the US
Central Bank. Vetcher J Powell set to speak tomorrow. Before that,
former Federal Reserve Governor Betsy Duke was on Bloomberg Surveillance
earlier today. She gave her expectations for the chair speech
Friday at the symposium.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Jay Powell, in terms of his legacy, is looking at
what happens to his mandate, what happens to inflation, what
happens to employment, and how well does he manage that.
It's not any single speech. He's one of fos focus
primarily on the decision framework and not give any indication
of where he's leaning for September. Inflation expectations are going
(01:13):
to be the key over the next year.
Speaker 4 (01:16):
Or two.
Speaker 3 (01:16):
If inflation expectations get out of line, then the FED
will be very concerned.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
That's Betsy Duke, former FED governor on Bloomberg Surveillance earlier today.
Joining us now from Jackson Hole, Wyoming is Bloomberg Surveillance
co host Tom Keen. Tom the event it's supposed to
be about policy, about economics, about this economy, but happening
at the same time the Justice Department signaling possible plans
to investigate Federaliser of Governor Lisa Cook.
Speaker 5 (01:41):
How is that hanging over the event?
Speaker 6 (01:44):
Oh, it's hanging over to exec correct language, There's no
question about it. You still have the normal cadence of
Jackson Hole. For example, there's six, seven, eight papers that
come out. Michael McKee prints them out perfectly, and he
reads every page of the academic papers. Guess what I
don't do that. I'm talking to the reporters here gathered,
(02:05):
and you're right at the top of a pile of topics.
Here is Lisa Cook.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
So what's what's she's I spoke to Mike earlier. He
said she's expected to arrive. She hasn't arrived yet. Does
it does it take away from FED chair Powell's message tomorrow.
Does it distract from what he says about this economy
and what he indicates or not about September.
Speaker 6 (02:27):
It's a really fair question. I don't think so. I
think Michael McHugh is better at this than I am
would say exactly the same thing. What is different here,
and our Simon Flint in Singapore absolutely nails it in
an essay today. What's different here is the hard facts
of the moment are catching up with the Chairman. I
don't know if they're rewriting the speech tonight with the
(02:50):
stars out above the tetons, or maybe they're writing it
on the airplane. But what is very clear here is
the hard facts, as mister Flint says, have caught up.
You have the economic today, you got concern about inflation
and tim The number one thing I'm launching off the
Bloomberg year is the thirty year bend. Once again we're
making a dash up near five percent. That's the kind
(03:11):
of inflation whispers that have to change the speech.
Speaker 7 (03:16):
Tom Of course, you mentioned the Chairman will speak tomorrow
at Jackson Hole. Can you just tell us a bit
more about what attendees are really looking to hear from him.
Speaker 6 (03:24):
It varies every year. There was one year here I'm
going to say three years ago. I can't remember where
we were prepared for a fifteen minute twenty minute speech,
and I believe he spoke for eight minutes. So every
year is different. I think the pageantry will be here,
there'll be an international audience here, Christin mcguartier, mister Nagel
of Germany is here. Bailey of the Bank of England
(03:46):
scheduled as well. But what's interesting is within the pageantry,
what do you expect from a speech? And the answer
is they'll be looking for certain nuances and certain single
sentences that will be different. You're not going to get
a lot of is what's he going to do in September?
That would be rude. He's not going to do that.
Speaker 8 (04:05):
Here.
Speaker 7 (04:05):
You mentioned a lot of those international voices, I mean
the ECB, We've got Bank of Japan, Emerging Markets. How
are they playing a part of the conversation this year?
Speaker 5 (04:13):
In particular, Nora, you know my theme.
Speaker 6 (04:16):
You're already stealing my theme as we go to tomorrow
with Lisa A. Bramo. It's to me the international angle
here is the importance point.
Speaker 5 (04:26):
William Rhodes Bill Rhoads.
Speaker 6 (04:28):
Of City Group Iconic at City Bank, it's called City
Bank back then had this great phrase central banker to
the world. He took it from academics. This is a
Jackson hole where Jerome Powell is the central banker to
the world is he defends delicately the way we've done
banking for years, pushing against President Trump. The theme internationally
(04:52):
here of central bank independence will be key.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I think also the theme of labor tom and it's
something that we've spent a lot of time I'm talking
about in recent weeks, especially since that shocking report came
out earlier this month about those numbers for the month
of July, and it's really shifted the conversation about what
employment in the United States and what healthy employment numbers
look like in the United States where borders are closed,
(05:17):
immigration legal and illegal is down, and growth among American
families is not what it was a couple generations ago.
What does that picture look like in terms of reshaping
the American workforce.
Speaker 6 (05:30):
Well in reshaping the speech as well. It's a movable
feast right now. Tim. The number one thing is we've
seen a trend in the data. The conceit is labor
data always lags. Okay, fine, and we've seen this trend,
including continuing claims. Today Bramo put out on Twitter, I
was stuck in an airport somewhere. Bramo put out on
(05:50):
Twitter that great continuing claims chart which shows this explosion
up in the weekly data. That's the kind of tea
leaves that gets have fed the shift. President Trump wants
them to shift quicker. And let's remember we've got that
jobs report early September before Mike McKee's in that press
conference September seventeenth.
Speaker 7 (06:12):
Well, I want to just talk about the energy. I mean,
you've been to so many of these symposiums. What's the
energy like on the ground this year? In particular?
Speaker 6 (06:20):
Quiet? First thing I noticed when I walked in. There's
a whole new quiet tone to the Mike McKinnon. I remember,
I remember August of seven, which was I think i'll
say seven days after libor or Ois went out four
standard deviations. This place was chaos.
Speaker 5 (06:37):
My guess is a lot.
Speaker 6 (06:39):
Of people are coming in tomorrow morning, and tomorrow morning
here at the Jackson Lake Lodge will not be quiet.
There'll be a real turnout for the speech. With that said,
it's one party, academic, but it is one part about
this attack on the Central Bank by President Trump.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Tom'm gonna have to leave it there. We're gonna speak
to you throughout in the next couple of time days.
Appreciate your time, and we're glad you arrived safely. I
know it was a long journey to get there. Tom Keen,
Bloomberg Surveillance co host out there at the Jackson Hole
Economic Symposium.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during
listen on Apple Karplay and Android autto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube well.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Also watching the economics imposium in Jackson is Ali McCartney,
Managing director of wealth management and private wealth advisor with
Alignment Partners at Ubs. She and the team managed just
over one billion dollars in assets. She joins us from
Rehoboth Beach, Delaware this afternoon. Ali, good to have you
back on the program. What do you think Fed Chair
Jay Powell will communicate tomorrow?
Speaker 9 (07:55):
I think, as usual, you will probably not communicate exactly
the things that the market is looking for. But I
think that what he will communicate you just spoke about briefly,
which is this tension between the dual mandate, specifically that
they are now looking more at weakening softening data in
(08:15):
a labor market than they are at long term inflation expectations,
which although Tom talked about the movement in the thirty year,
seemed to be quite consistent. The last thing I'll leave
you with is to remember that last year was in
a sense of quite an epic meeting, and that that
was the beginning of the long awaited pivot. I think
(08:36):
that this meeting will be in a sense less revelatory
than that one.
Speaker 7 (08:43):
When we look at the market performance this past year
thus far, it's we have the S and P five hundred,
that's up about eight percent. Of course, that's a bit
different from what we saw in the past couple of
years where we were seeing double digit gains to end
the year here. So what do you think the market
really needs to hear to maintain this moment some here
as we go into the second half of this year.
Speaker 9 (09:04):
So I think we are at we're a bit in
a bit of a waiting game, right, that's a normal thing.
In late August, volumes are really low. You know, people
are on vacation less trading. We also happen to be
awaiting Jackson Hole on Friday and in video earnings next week,
in video being the largest contributor from a market cap
and from an earnings perspective to the S and P
(09:27):
five hundred, and that being the conversation that is being
you know, discussed now about you know, has AI pulled
back which have been driving the market. My sense is
that from an equity perspective, as you said, we've had
two twenty plus year return two years of twenty plus
year returns. We you know, are up thirty percent from
(09:50):
the tariff day low and ten percent as you said,
a couple of days ago year to date, and we're
at multiples that we really have only seen twice in
my trading life, the first being one very unique day
during the pandemic and the other during the height of
the Internet bubble. So you know, what we need, I
think is stability to keep us in this range and
(10:13):
going higher. And I think the bull market will remain
in tac I think it will likely be driven by
a continued expansion in the AI trade, both in terms
of infrastructure buys and builds, data and power picks and shovels.
Both margins going up and productivity going up. And I
(10:34):
think it will also be very much supported by a
decreasing interest rate cycle. But we're certainly in a more
precarious position than we have been in a number of
years from a multiple perspective.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Ali, I'm trying to figure this out and I'm hoping
you can help help out with this. It's something I've
been thinking a lot about lately, and it's this idea
of a weakening consumer. And in just a few minutes
were actually gonna speaking with the CFO of Kava Trisia Tolliver.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
So Cabstock Film, you know, more than twenty percent in
a single day last week because the company pulled back
its guidance, essentially talking about a fogginess with the American
consumer out there. At the same time, you have these
high margin AI companies that are essentially just printing money,
whether we talk about it from an Nvidia perspective, from
(11:20):
a meta platforms perspective, with margins such as those, what's
the tension there in a world with a weakening consumer?
Speaker 9 (11:28):
I think you nailed it. I think that bifurcation and
that tension really exists. I think it exists in terms
of goods and services. I think it exists in terms
of consumer discretionary ver staples, and I think it exists
in terms of, you know, the vast difference in wealth
and earning potential in this country. So what I am
(11:49):
seeing in my high end clientele, who are looking at
portfolios that are the highest they've ever been, and what
I'm seeing in my own neighborhood is the same. People
are definitely more reticent to spend, both simply the cost
of goods and the tiriff implications which we're starting to
get wind of, are real, and people are going to
(12:11):
have to make choices and decisions. The consumer has managed
on all levels to hold up extraordinarily well. It's like
the little engine that could, but it cannot last forever.
And so I think that the next number of quarters
there is going to continue to be exactly what you
said with this bifurcation. In many ways that you slice
(12:32):
the data, whether it's demographics, whether it's earnings, whether it's
sector between the haves and the have nots.
Speaker 7 (12:41):
What are the opportunities here in the market. How are
you advising your clients? What's the safe have in trade
right now?
Speaker 9 (12:47):
Yeah? So look, I think all of this year it
has paid to be diversified, which have not been the
case in a very long time. So you see right now,
you see equities that have recovered and gone up no
matter which area you're looking at and which geography. Largely
you see gold, which has done its job at protecting
but also continues to provide upside. And you see fixed
(13:12):
income you know, ig in the US trading at twenty
five year tights as people try to get ahead of
the FED moving down. So there are a lot of opportunities. However,
each is very expensive. So I think the first is
to continue to be diversified and even though it feels
(13:32):
like things are expensive, to continue to be invested. The
second is to look for areas that still have room
to grow from a relative perspective, whether that's healthcare, whether
that's utilities which can also provide some defense, whether that's financials,
which again are trading high but have a number of
tailwinds from a regulatory and an interest rate perspective. So
(13:55):
there most certainly are opportunities out there, but you know
what we've been finding and especially finding this week, is
it may not be the time to play all beta
or buy the SMP. This may be a time to
be much more discreete and disciplined about what you buy
and when you buy it.
Speaker 5 (14:13):
We only have about a minute left.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
But I was talking to a colleague a little earlier
and she sort of explained the sense out in Silicon
Valley right now when it comes to the AI and
the AI race and what private companies are doing. And
she described it as being on this roller coaster, but
there's this lack of understanding about where we are on
the roller coaster on the way up, if we're close
to the top or not are we.
Speaker 9 (14:38):
It's a really great question. And I have found in
my career, being both on the East Coast and the
West Coast, that there is always a difference in opinion,
o bulliance and understanding of various technologies that are coming
out of Silicon Valley. I think that we probably remain
in the second early third inning. We are not even
(15:00):
close to there yet. What I think the major difference
is by people that live, traffic and work out there,
is that they are thinking many steps ahead in storms
of large scale effects on data on businesses, whereas I
find that my clients and the people that I work
with on Wall Street, outside of let's say the analyst community,
(15:23):
are much more focused on sort of large language models
chat GPT, and that's why I think there is extreme
room to run in the next decade.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Alan McCartney, Managing director, Wealth Management and private wealth Advisor
at Alignment Partners at UBS.
Speaker 5 (15:36):
This is Bloomberg. Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay
and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can
also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
There's been this renewed interest on rare earths and critical
minerals as trade attentions between the US and China have
flared up. On that We've spent quite a bit of
time over the last few months talking about them with
CEOs of companies in the space. Jim Litinski over at
MP Materials, whose company is set to have the Defense
Department take a four hundred million dollar preferred equity stake.
For more on rare earths, we're joined by Oliver Friesen,
(16:28):
CEO at Guardian Metal Resources. It's a London based metals
exploration and development company. It's looking to bring production of
tungsten back to the US. Oliver joins US from Toronto. Oliver,
we've been learning a lot about rares lately. I think
my geology one oh one professor would be very happy
with what we've been talking about. We Gary Evans from
US antimony on last week talking about the importance of
(16:50):
antimony when it comes to ballistics. That was something that
was new to me. Your focus is tungsten. Why is
tungsten important because it's not classified as a rare earth.
Speaker 8 (17:00):
Yeah, well, first of all, thanks for having me on, Tim,
It's great to be here to talk more about tungsten.
Funny enough, you mentioned antimony in the use within munitions
and ballistics. It's the same reason you need tungsten. Tungsten
is one of the most dense metals on the planet
and also has the highest melting point, so it's been
used in the production of munitions for decades and decades
and decades. Now that's just one small use case, but effectively,
(17:20):
when you look at the entire critical metals supply chain,
if even one of those metals isn't there, that can
shut down manufacturing in the United States of America. So
it's important that we focus on not only just rare earths,
which as you mentioned, are very important antimony, but tungsten
is definitely up there, considering the fact that we're very
reliant on unfriendly adversaries for global tungsten supplies.
Speaker 7 (17:41):
So I want to talk a bit more about your
company in particular here which end markets you know, maybe
eves defense renewables are really driving the most urgency for
your business right now?
Speaker 8 (17:52):
Yeah, I would say probably the most urgent use cases
is a cross defense because of that density, it's ubiquitous,
and it's very important in the productions and ammunitions and
things like tank armers as well. So really, right now,
given the geopolitical landscape, we're seeing a huge amount of
a surgeon demand and increasing demand across the defense industry
for this metal. But as you pointed out, you know,
(18:13):
it's not just a defense metal. This is a metal
that's used in a lot of other industries. Some that
come to mind aerospace, automotive, green energy is another one.
It's a really important metal. It's almost irreplaceable in a
lot of these technologies. So Defense is driving the narrative
right now. But the same time, you know, we're hearing
major manufacturers in the United States of America are actually saying,
(18:34):
we can't get this tungsten. If we don't get it,
we're going to be shutting down.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
So the Pentagon in July provide it as six point
two million dollar ward to Golden Metal Resources. It's the
US unit of your company to perform a pre feasibility
study for a tungsten mind near Hawthorne, Nevada. Is this
is this all the financing that you will need? Will
you need more from the DoD, Will you need more
from the government? Will you need to raise more?
Speaker 8 (18:59):
Yeah, So it's it's part of the puzzle for sure.
So that six point two million dollar award that we've
received from the Department Defense, which obviously we're very grateful
to the current administration for that award, will cover some
of the key engineering workstreams as part of that PFS study.
But you're right, there are other expenditures associated with bringing
that project and our projects into production. But concurrently with that,
(19:22):
with that award from the Department of Defense, we raised
twenty one million dollars US dollars, predominantly with existing shareholders,
almost all institutional. So we use those funds to then
cover the other additional costs and all the funding combined.
Really the focus is on delivering two key tungus and
minds to the US market, of which it's a metal
the US has not mined for over a decade.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Do you need government support when it comes to this project.
Speaker 5 (19:49):
We don't.
Speaker 8 (19:51):
And you know, for instance, we acquired Pilot Mount, which
is a project that's received the award from the Department
Defense almost five years ago, so it was a much
different market than the land Escape was much different. And
even at that time, we acquired it because we felt
like it would be an economic tungsten operation. At previous
pricing norms, which is around three hundred dollars, what's called
an metric ton unit are about thirty thousand dollars a ton.
(20:14):
That being said, the price, you know, fast forward five years,
China has completely banned the exports of all tunks into
the US market. The price is closer to fifty thousand
dollars a ton right now. But even at historic norms,
you know, this project in our projects, we believe makes sense.
But obviously you know the tailwinds we're seeing now across
the federal funding landscape, but also permitting gives us that
(20:34):
much more confidence to push these projects forward and deliver
minds in America to the US industrial base and defense partners.
Speaker 7 (20:42):
Oliver, let's talk a little bit about China.
Speaker 9 (20:43):
You brought it up here.
Speaker 7 (20:44):
How do you see China's dominance in the rare earth
processing cheaping your strategy here?
Speaker 8 (20:51):
Yeah, No, it's a really good point, Noraen. I'm glad
you brought it up, because what what sort of sets
tungsen apart from you know, the antimonies and the rarest
says we've discussed, is the fact that the downstream processing
capacity actually fully exists on US soil. It's one of
the kind of the very few critical metals of which
the US has the ability to actually take what's called
a tungsten concentrate and turn it into actual usable finished
(21:15):
products for defense and for industry. So the benefit that
we have is that the only thing missing in the
US right now is a domestic mind source. You know,
we import in the US, all of our concentrates from
other countries, and just to give you a data point, China,
Russian North Korea combined represent ninety percent of total global
(21:36):
supply of tungsen. I'm mean, just let that kind of
data point sit in. But the thing that's missing right
now in the US is the mind supply. The processing
is there. So as soon as we can plug in
R two Nevada based tungs and minds, you have a
fully circular tungsten supply chain that exists within the bounds
of the United States of America.
Speaker 7 (21:56):
So where do you see demand for rare earth materials
and all of that, just more broadly over the next
say five to ten years.
Speaker 8 (22:04):
Yeah, So tungsten specifically, we're seeing very very healthy compound
and annual growth rates across the different sectors.
Speaker 5 (22:11):
That need it.
Speaker 8 (22:12):
Defense is certainly leading the charge right now. You know,
we're seeing we're seeing the EU and NATO and the US.
You know, defense budgets up or up across the board,
So that drives the demand for tungsten, as you can
probably imagine. But also you know, we mentioned automotive, aerospace,
these are all other other sectors that are the demand
for tungsten is increasing quite considerably, so we're seeing healthy
(22:34):
growth across the different growth areas. And another use case
that many of your listeners probably are not aware of
is nuclear fusion, so not to be completely confused with
nuclear fission, but effectively trying to harness the energy of
the sun here on Earth. And the only metal with
a high enough melting point to contain a nuclear fusion
reactor is tungsten. So we see longer term considerable demand
(22:56):
growth from this this very important energy supply excuse me,
technology that should be come in line in the next
couple of years here in next maybe decade.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Terminal
this week was about the Trump administration, or President Trump's
new brand of economic state craft deals like you know
we might see with Intel, for example, or the Department
of Defense deal with MP materials. I mean you could
throw other companies into that as well, AMD and Nvidia.
With fifteen percent of certain ship sales in China going
(23:29):
to the government, maybe even US steal with that so
called golden share that the US government has with US steel.
What's in your view, because you've taken some money from
the government this year what's the difference between a deal
like the one that MP Materials got in which the
DoD will take a stake and the stake that the
Trump administration is contemplating taking an intel. Do you see
(23:50):
a difference in those deals?
Speaker 8 (23:53):
Yeah, for sure. So the MP Materials deal is pretty
groundbreaking for this sector. And I think this is really
a strong signal to the US critical medals industry that that,
you know, the administration is serious about mind in America,
which is really encouraging to see. So the MP Materials deal,
there's lots of different parts to that. One of them
(24:13):
is the price floor of the direct investment and also
the federal award as well. So we've received just an award,
So this is that this is money that we can
go and use to fast track key engineering steps as
part of our project. But what I'll say is that
you know, there there's you know, there's there's speculation that
some of these unique uh and new sort of benefits
(24:33):
that MP has had with this deal could could be
applied across the sector. So effectively, the doors have opened
up for this this this type of deal to be
done across the defense supply chain, but also the critical
metal supply chain. So anyways, I think that all in all,
it's it's a really strong signal to the market. It's
a really strong signal to myself as a CEO of
a critical metals company that the US administration is serious
(24:54):
about minds in America and that obviously means that we
have these projects at exactly the right time and trying
to over this key metal to the US market.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
We're speaking with Oliver Freesa and the CEO at Guardian
and Metal Resources, to London based metals exploration and development company.
It's looking to bring production of tungskin back to the US. Oliver,
you mentioned the door is open. Is your door open
for an investment from the US government where the government
or the Department of Defense would actually take an equity
stake in the company.
Speaker 5 (25:22):
Would you welcome that?
Speaker 8 (25:25):
Of course, yeah, we'd be We'd more than welcome that.
Like I said, we all we have right now is
the award from the Deity, which is incredibly important for
the business. But you know, we're we're we're Our goal
here is to deliver these minds to the US market.
So anything that we can do to help get support
from the current administration and across the industry. We will
absolutely have that conversation, but the time is so critical
(25:47):
right now. Like I said, the US has no domestic
mind supply, and we believe that we are the leading
company when it comes to tungsten expression development. So we're
absolutely looking to have any conversation that will help us
get to our goal.
Speaker 7 (25:59):
Quicker, are you having conversations right now about that?
Speaker 8 (26:03):
I can't speak to that. What I can say is that,
you know, the award that we received from the Department
of Defense was only about three weeks ago, so we're
now really focused on getting that money and focusing it
in the ground and towards towards creating US jobs at
our projects. So that's the focus right now. But obviously,
you know, we're looking to tap into anytail ones that
can be available to defense and critical metals companies that
(26:26):
are focused on US projects.
Speaker 7 (26:28):
Oliver, how do you navigate trade tensions and resource nationalism
and markets where you operate?
Speaker 8 (26:34):
Yeah, I mean we try to get too focused on that.
You know, it's uh, there's a lot of noise out there.
There's a lot of movement across tariffs and and and
you know trade relationships. Right now, I think the main
signal to to to our company and to myself is
the CEO is that there's a huge push for minds
in America. We want to see these metals actually being
(26:54):
mined on American soil. So we try not to get
too kind of caught up in the day to day.
You know, we have a job here, which is to
deliver these projects to the US market. But it's encouraging
to see some of these things that I think really
once again point to the fact that the current administration
is very focused on mind in America and nowhere else
in the world. So that's obviously a huge benefit benefit
(27:16):
to us as owners of two key tunks and projects
that are both on US soil and also in the
great state of Nevada, which is a very mining friendly
place to be operating.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Oliver, Yes or no, how quickly? Or can I should
say the US become rare with independent from China?
Speaker 8 (27:31):
Oh man, it's a good question. I mean, yes, we can.
I mean there's some great geology here. We need a
huge amount of support from the administration, which we're seeing now.
We have to carry through. That's the biggest thing. We
can't stop start, stop start if we have this same
sort of support push forward over five, ten, fifteen years,
the landscape will look a lot different and the US
will become a lot less reliant on unfriendly countries. For
(27:51):
these key input medals.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
Oliver Fries and CEO at Guardian Metal Resources, stay with us.
More from Bloomberg Business Weekday coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during
Listen on Alvacarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 7 (28:19):
It's been a big week of retail earnings and it's
telling us a lot about the state of the US
consumer Home depot sales, missed expectations, Walmart reporter rere miss
on profit expectations, Target delivered a discouraging full year sales outlook,
and the list goes on and on. But we've got
two wonderful reporters here to shed light on this and
a lot more this afternoon. Janette Newman, Bloomberg News Consumer reporter,
(28:40):
and Jennifer Bartasha's Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer team leader and senior
retail staples and packaged foot food analysts are here to
discuss that is a long title. Sounds like she does
a lot here, But Jeanette, I'll start with you one
of the latest retail earnings telling you about the state
of the US consumer right now.
Speaker 10 (28:59):
I think over all that the US consumer is actually
doing okay. I think there's there's a note of caution
looking forward because a lot of what's been you know,
sold in the in the last couple quarters, price price
increases has not hit those goods, and so there's concern
about when price increases really do start to flow through,
(29:19):
what how consumers will will react. But despite some of
the you know what you what you mentioned Noura with
the results, I mean, Walmart did have a profit miss
that's very rare. That had to do with some claims,
but they actually raised their sales guidance for the year,
which was already which was already pretty high. So that
shows that there they do have some confidence in the
consumer in the year in the year ahead.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
A Jen come on in here, because we spoke earlier
with the CFO of KAVA, Tricia Toliver joined us and
she said last week and she kind of reiterated today
that there's this fluid macroeconomic environment that these are her words,
she said, it creates a fog for consumers and during
those times they tend to step off the gas. Would
(29:59):
you say that that the view you have at Bloomberg
Intelligence about the consumer, that it's foggy and as a
result of that fog, consumers are pulling back a little bit.
Speaker 4 (30:08):
Yeah. I think that's a pretty good insight. You know,
when we look at the consumer and you look at
sort of the bigger numbers in terms of the economy,
the consumer is hanging in there. But the consumer has
been conservative for a long time. It really started when
we had high food inflation, and as soon as that
started to roll back, we had pressure from tariffs, and
(30:31):
there's just uncertainty. And when that consumer is uncertain, they
still buy the things that they need to buy. They're
still going on vacation, but they're just being a little
bit more prudent. And until we have a little bit
more clarity, we're not expecting that to really change.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Jen, what is the bifurcation that you're seeing at Bloomberg
Intelligence when it comes to consumers, those at the higher
end of the income spectrum versus what those at the
lower end of the income spectrum are doing and We've
talked a lot for years about the K shaped recovery.
Kind of sounds like we're still there. Maybe it's even
more pronounced.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
It's pretty pronounced. You know, lower income consumers continue to
be pressured when you look at retailers that really have
a lot of those customers in their base, and that
would be the Walmart's of the world, it would be
Dollar Generals of the world. You know, you see that
the spending and the average ticket and the traffic into
those stores in some instances is a little bit pressured.
(31:26):
At the same time, you know, higher income households are
almost kind of going along as normal. They're still seeking value,
but they're taking advantage of all the value that's being
offered out to the broader economy and they're saving money
that way. So it's an interesting thing to track and
how those two different parts of the consumer base are
(31:48):
really behaving a little bit differently.
Speaker 10 (31:50):
And everybody loves a deal, right and Walmart has actually,
you know, to what Jen's saying, Walmart has has benefited
from everyone loving a deal and is attracting increasingly more
higher income consumers and that's part of what's helped boost
its its sales and that's been a strategy. You know
a lot of those consumers went to Walmart during the
pandemic to get groceries and then have increasingly kind of
(32:12):
bought more and more. Walmart is stepping up. You know,
it's clothing offering, and so that's also you know, that's helping,
that's helping Walmart.
Speaker 5 (32:19):
Are those consumers sticky with Walmart?
Speaker 10 (32:22):
Yes, they are, They are sticky, and that's been that's
been part of the that's been part of Walmart's success
because they go to the grocery, they go and they
get the groceries, and then they see, actually, like Walmart
has great genes. Now Walmart has knows that these consumers.
Speaker 5 (32:34):
Well, that was an American Eagle reference, wasn't it.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
Know.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
We're not going to definitely, we're not going to get
We're not aget talking Sidney.
Speaker 5 (32:45):
Not moving on. Sorry, go ahead, chapter, next chapter.
Speaker 10 (32:49):
And that that also is you know, Walmart has been
seizing on that and Target has been missing out. Target
has not been doing well. They obviously just appointed a
new CEO. He's an insider.
Speaker 5 (33:00):
It's an amazing story.
Speaker 10 (33:01):
It is an amazing story. It is an amazing story.
But the market's not that impressed.
Speaker 7 (33:05):
Though, that's what we're seeing. But I mean you also
come for companies like Sday Latter. We talked about Walmart.
Of course, we know that has a lot of those
consumers staples opportunities there. But when we look at Esta
Latter and a lot of competitors like that on the
more luxury end, what are the contours of consumer spending
in that space right now?
Speaker 10 (33:23):
You know, beauty overall is doing okay again, kind of
still slowing down a little bit, but still writing a
post pandemic boom when we all got into you know,
lots of different lots of different beauty products at one
at one time. But Stay Latter is not doing that well.
So that's kind of like even though the consumer right
now is okay, a little bit conservative, like like Jen said,
(33:44):
but Walmart is doing overall really well. Target is not
doing great. That's also because of differences with the two
companies and how they're run. Similarly, Loreal, huge beauty company,
obviously is actually doing really well. Stay Latter. No, their
sales in the most recent fiscal year that just ended,
we're down eight percent, and those are kind of internal
internal problems that they've been that they've been dealing with Jennifer.
(34:04):
I want to bring you back into the conversation here.
Are we seeing any sense of consumer fatigue right now,
especially when we know inflation is super high and if
you were to ask the average person, they do think
that things are kind of tight right now.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
I don't know that we're seeing a lot of fatigue.
I think people have sort of adjusted to what is
sort of almost a new normal, and that's a little
bit post food inflation. They've seen prices come down in
different ways, especially on the grocery side and some of
the general merchandise, like entry level fashion, and so I
think that gives the perception of a little bit of relief.
(34:41):
So I don't think people are really pulling back anymore,
but they're not also simultaneously really loosening the purse strings.
It seems like we've sort of settled into kind of
this new normal, this new normal range. One other note
on Walmart that I think is pretty interesting. When you're
talking about retention, you can't you can't not talk about
(35:01):
Walmart Plus, which is a huge loyalty program and they're
generating a lot of incremental revenue off of it, and
people who get in there, they keep renewing and it
just locks in loyalty and locks in spending, and we're
seeing that across all income cohorts.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Wait wait, wait, can you talk a little bit more
about that? And I think, I think what this is
not an ad for American Express, but I will say,
if you have a certain American Express card, you can
get a free membership to the program.
Speaker 7 (35:28):
Which one do you want to.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
I think it's the Platinum card. I believe, Yeah, I
believe that's what it is. Thanks for calling you.
Speaker 4 (35:36):
Actually just completed a survey of one thousand Walmart Plus subscribers,
and what's really interesting is that eighty three percent of
Walmart Plus subscribers also have an Amazon Prime membership, but
that doesn't stop them from maximizing their Walmart Plus value.
And so I think that it really illustrates how Walmart
has very uniquely carved out a survey and a recurring
(36:01):
revenue stream that is really pretty remarkable. And that the
fact that a lot of the people who are in
that program are making digital orders, that's driving their digital
revenue for advertising, and it's really adding to just the
overall flywheel of Walmart. So there's a lot of really
interesting things happening that are really stemming from some of
(36:22):
these intelligent decisions they made maybe five years ago to
introduce that Walmart Plus program.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
That's a fascinating thing to hear because it was always
sort of an out also ran when it comes to
Amazon Prime, So it's interesting to hear that. Jen Janette,
I want to bring you back in here and talk
a little bit about Target. You mentioned the CEO change
the news we got earlier this week. You said investors
didn't love it. A lot of the conversation around Target
over the last couple of years, well, actually really over
(36:49):
the last year or so has had to do with
backlash against DEI efforts and to what extent, in your view,
that actually affected company sales or the image of what
that looked like for consumers.
Speaker 5 (37:00):
What do we know about this?
Speaker 10 (37:02):
The company executives at Target have said that the backlash,
like black, black consumers not shopping at Target, has had
an impact on sales. They have not quantified that, and
so we don't really know. These kinds of boycotts don't
often have a huge effect, but they have said that
it had that it had an effect, and I think
also more more importantly, even in some of the analyst notes,
(37:24):
and you hear investors talking about the staff at Target.
We've had some reporting it's nearly sixty percent of staff
at Target are people of color, and so the staff
itself has been upset by everything that's been going on
with Target pulling back on DEI and that is that
is something that some people think is kind of behind
(37:46):
some of this tumult with with staff. Job in retail
is so difficult, and you need especially now, and you
need great staff, and you need people who are going
to stick around and they know how.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
The stores work.
Speaker 10 (37:56):
So that has also been a problem, whereas you don't
hear those same complaints from staff at Walmart, for example.
Excuse me. They've also been increasing the salaries that they're
paying their their top employees, so that is also an
issue at Target. Is the issue with staff.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Well, we love talking retail and the consumer with both
of you. Thank you so much for joining us. Jene Newman,
Bloomberg News Consumer reporter and Jennifer Bartasha's Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer
Team leader and senior Retail Staples and Package of Food analysts.
Check out Janette's reporting on the Bloomberg terminal and Jennifer's
research on the Bloomberg Terminal, also, of course, at bloomberg
dot com.
Speaker 1 (38:34):
This is the Bloomberg Businessweekdaily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday
afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(38:55):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business
Weekdaily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay
ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping
today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news
(00:23):
as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with
Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
All Eyes on Jackson holl As the FED kicks off
its Economic Symposium. It's the flagship event for the US
Central Bank. Vetcher J Powell set to speak tomorrow. Before that,
former Federal Reserve Governor Betsy Duke was on Bloomberg Surveillance
earlier today. She gave her expectations for the chair speech
Friday at the symposium.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Jay Powell, in terms of his legacy, is looking at
what happens to his mandate, what happens to inflation, what
happens to employment, and how well does he manage that.
It's not any single speech. He's one of fos focus
primarily on the decision framework and not give any indication
of where he's leaning for September. Inflation expectations are going
(01:13):
to be the key over the next year.
Speaker 4 (01:16):
Or two.
Speaker 3 (01:16):
If inflation expectations get out of line, then the FED
will be very concerned.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
That's Betsy Duke, former FED governor on Bloomberg Surveillance earlier today.
Joining us now from Jackson Hole, Wyoming is Bloomberg Surveillance
co host Tom Keen. Tom the event it's supposed to
be about policy, about economics, about this economy, but happening
at the same time the Justice Department signaling possible plans
to investigate Federaliser of Governor Lisa Cook.
Speaker 5 (01:41):
How is that hanging over the event?
Speaker 6 (01:44):
Oh, it's hanging over to exec correct language, There's no
question about it. You still have the normal cadence of
Jackson Hole. For example, there's six, seven, eight papers that
come out. Michael McKee prints them out perfectly, and he
reads every page of the academic papers. Guess what I
don't do that. I'm talking to the reporters here gathered,
(02:05):
and you're right at the top of a pile of topics.
Here is Lisa Cook.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
So what's what's she's I spoke to Mike earlier. He
said she's expected to arrive. She hasn't arrived yet. Does
it does it take away from FED chair Powell's message tomorrow.
Does it distract from what he says about this economy
and what he indicates or not about September.
Speaker 6 (02:27):
It's a really fair question. I don't think so. I
think Michael McHugh is better at this than I am
would say exactly the same thing. What is different here,
and our Simon Flint in Singapore absolutely nails it in
an essay today. What's different here is the hard facts
of the moment are catching up with the Chairman. I
don't know if they're rewriting the speech tonight with the
(02:50):
stars out above the tetons, or maybe they're writing it
on the airplane. But what is very clear here is
the hard facts, as mister Flint says, have caught up.
You have the economic today, you got concern about inflation
and tim The number one thing I'm launching off the
Bloomberg year is the thirty year bend. Once again we're
making a dash up near five percent. That's the kind
(03:11):
of inflation whispers that have to change the speech.
Speaker 7 (03:16):
Tom Of course, you mentioned the Chairman will speak tomorrow
at Jackson Hole. Can you just tell us a bit
more about what attendees are really looking to hear from him.
Speaker 6 (03:24):
It varies every year. There was one year here I'm
going to say three years ago. I can't remember where
we were prepared for a fifteen minute twenty minute speech,
and I believe he spoke for eight minutes. So every
year is different. I think the pageantry will be here,
there'll be an international audience here, Christin mcguartier, mister Nagel
of Germany is here. Bailey of the Bank of England
(03:46):
scheduled as well. But what's interesting is within the pageantry,
what do you expect from a speech? And the answer
is they'll be looking for certain nuances and certain single
sentences that will be different. You're not going to get
a lot of is what's he going to do in September?
That would be rude. He's not going to do that.
Speaker 8 (04:05):
Here.
Speaker 7 (04:05):
You mentioned a lot of those international voices, I mean
the ECB, We've got Bank of Japan, Emerging Markets. How
are they playing a part of the conversation this year?
Speaker 5 (04:13):
In particular, Nora, you know my theme.
Speaker 6 (04:16):
You're already stealing my theme as we go to tomorrow
with Lisa A. Bramo. It's to me the international angle
here is the importance point.
Speaker 5 (04:26):
William Rhodes Bill Rhoads.
Speaker 6 (04:28):
Of City Group Iconic at City Bank, it's called City
Bank back then had this great phrase central banker to
the world. He took it from academics. This is a
Jackson hole where Jerome Powell is the central banker to
the world is he defends delicately the way we've done
banking for years, pushing against President Trump. The theme internationally
(04:52):
here of central bank independence will be key.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I think also the theme of labor tom and it's
something that we've spent a lot of time I'm talking
about in recent weeks, especially since that shocking report came
out earlier this month about those numbers for the month
of July, and it's really shifted the conversation about what
employment in the United States and what healthy employment numbers
look like in the United States where borders are closed,
(05:17):
immigration legal and illegal is down, and growth among American
families is not what it was a couple generations ago.
What does that picture look like in terms of reshaping
the American workforce.
Speaker 6 (05:30):
Well in reshaping the speech as well. It's a movable
feast right now. Tim. The number one thing is we've
seen a trend in the data. The conceit is labor
data always lags. Okay, fine, and we've seen this trend,
including continuing claims. Today Bramo put out on Twitter, I
was stuck in an airport somewhere. Bramo put out on
(05:50):
Twitter that great continuing claims chart which shows this explosion
up in the weekly data. That's the kind of tea
leaves that gets have fed the shift. President Trump wants
them to shift quicker. And let's remember we've got that
jobs report early September before Mike McKee's in that press
conference September seventeenth.
Speaker 7 (06:12):
Well, I want to just talk about the energy. I mean,
you've been to so many of these symposiums. What's the
energy like on the ground this year? In particular?
Speaker 6 (06:20):
Quiet? First thing I noticed when I walked in. There's
a whole new quiet tone to the Mike McKinnon. I remember,
I remember August of seven, which was I think i'll
say seven days after libor or Ois went out four
standard deviations. This place was chaos.
Speaker 5 (06:37):
My guess is a lot.
Speaker 6 (06:39):
Of people are coming in tomorrow morning, and tomorrow morning
here at the Jackson Lake Lodge will not be quiet.
There'll be a real turnout for the speech. With that said,
it's one party, academic, but it is one part about
this attack on the Central Bank by President Trump.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Tom'm gonna have to leave it there. We're gonna speak
to you throughout in the next couple of time days.
Appreciate your time, and we're glad you arrived safely. I
know it was a long journey to get there. Tom Keen,
Bloomberg Surveillance co host out there at the Jackson Hole
Economic Symposium.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during
listen on Apple Karplay and Android autto with the Bloomberg
Business app, or watch us live on YouTube well.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Also watching the economics imposium in Jackson is Ali McCartney,
Managing director of wealth management and private wealth advisor with
Alignment Partners at Ubs. She and the team managed just
over one billion dollars in assets. She joins us from
Rehoboth Beach, Delaware this afternoon. Ali, good to have you
back on the program. What do you think Fed Chair
Jay Powell will communicate tomorrow?
Speaker 9 (07:55):
I think, as usual, you will probably not communicate exactly
the things that the market is looking for. But I
think that what he will communicate you just spoke about briefly,
which is this tension between the dual mandate, specifically that
they are now looking more at weakening softening data in
(08:15):
a labor market than they are at long term inflation expectations,
which although Tom talked about the movement in the thirty year,
seemed to be quite consistent. The last thing I'll leave
you with is to remember that last year was in
a sense of quite an epic meeting, and that that
was the beginning of the long awaited pivot. I think
(08:36):
that this meeting will be in a sense less revelatory
than that one.
Speaker 7 (08:43):
When we look at the market performance this past year
thus far, it's we have the S and P five hundred,
that's up about eight percent. Of course, that's a bit
different from what we saw in the past couple of
years where we were seeing double digit gains to end
the year here. So what do you think the market
really needs to hear to maintain this moment some here
as we go into the second half of this year.
Speaker 9 (09:04):
So I think we are at we're a bit in
a bit of a waiting game, right, that's a normal thing.
In late August, volumes are really low. You know, people
are on vacation less trading. We also happen to be
awaiting Jackson Hole on Friday and in video earnings next week,
in video being the largest contributor from a market cap
and from an earnings perspective to the S and P
(09:27):
five hundred, and that being the conversation that is being
you know, discussed now about you know, has AI pulled
back which have been driving the market. My sense is
that from an equity perspective, as you said, we've had
two twenty plus year return two years of twenty plus
year returns. We you know, are up thirty percent from
(09:50):
the tariff day low and ten percent as you said,
a couple of days ago year to date, and we're
at multiples that we really have only seen twice in
my trading life, the first being one very unique day
during the pandemic and the other during the height of
the Internet bubble. So you know, what we need, I
think is stability to keep us in this range and
(10:13):
going higher. And I think the bull market will remain
in tac I think it will likely be driven by
a continued expansion in the AI trade, both in terms
of infrastructure buys and builds, data and power picks and shovels.
Both margins going up and productivity going up. And I
(10:34):
think it will also be very much supported by a
decreasing interest rate cycle. But we're certainly in a more
precarious position than we have been in a number of
years from a multiple perspective.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Ali, I'm trying to figure this out and I'm hoping
you can help help out with this. It's something I've
been thinking a lot about lately, and it's this idea
of a weakening consumer. And in just a few minutes
were actually gonna speaking with the CFO of Kava Trisia Tolliver.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
So Cabstock Film, you know, more than twenty percent in
a single day last week because the company pulled back
its guidance, essentially talking about a fogginess with the American
consumer out there. At the same time, you have these
high margin AI companies that are essentially just printing money,
whether we talk about it from an Nvidia perspective, from
(11:20):
a meta platforms perspective, with margins such as those, what's
the tension there in a world with a weakening consumer?
Speaker 9 (11:28):
I think you nailed it. I think that bifurcation and
that tension really exists. I think it exists in terms
of goods and services. I think it exists in terms
of consumer discretionary ver staples, and I think it exists
in terms of, you know, the vast difference in wealth
and earning potential in this country. So what I am
(11:49):
seeing in my high end clientele, who are looking at
portfolios that are the highest they've ever been, and what
I'm seeing in my own neighborhood is the same. People
are definitely more reticent to spend, both simply the cost
of goods and the tiriff implications which we're starting to
get wind of, are real, and people are going to
(12:11):
have to make choices and decisions. The consumer has managed
on all levels to hold up extraordinarily well. It's like
the little engine that could, but it cannot last forever.
And so I think that the next number of quarters
there is going to continue to be exactly what you
said with this bifurcation. In many ways that you slice
(12:32):
the data, whether it's demographics, whether it's earnings, whether it's
sector between the haves and the have nots.
Speaker 7 (12:41):
What are the opportunities here in the market. How are
you advising your clients? What's the safe have in trade
right now?
Speaker 9 (12:47):
Yeah? So look, I think all of this year it
has paid to be diversified, which have not been the
case in a very long time. So you see right now,
you see equities that have recovered and gone up no
matter which area you're looking at and which geography. Largely
you see gold, which has done its job at protecting
but also continues to provide upside. And you see fixed
(13:12):
income you know, ig in the US trading at twenty
five year tights as people try to get ahead of
the FED moving down. So there are a lot of opportunities. However,
each is very expensive. So I think the first is
to continue to be diversified and even though it feels
(13:32):
like things are expensive, to continue to be invested. The
second is to look for areas that still have room
to grow from a relative perspective, whether that's healthcare, whether
that's utilities which can also provide some defense, whether that's financials,
which again are trading high but have a number of
tailwinds from a regulatory and an interest rate perspective. So
(13:55):
there most certainly are opportunities out there, but you know
what we've been finding and especially finding this week, is
it may not be the time to play all beta
or buy the SMP. This may be a time to
be much more discreete and disciplined about what you buy
and when you buy it.
Speaker 5 (14:13):
We only have about a minute left.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
But I was talking to a colleague a little earlier
and she sort of explained the sense out in Silicon
Valley right now when it comes to the AI and
the AI race and what private companies are doing. And
she described it as being on this roller coaster, but
there's this lack of understanding about where we are on
the roller coaster on the way up, if we're close
to the top or not are we.
Speaker 9 (14:38):
It's a really great question. And I have found in
my career, being both on the East Coast and the
West Coast, that there is always a difference in opinion,
o bulliance and understanding of various technologies that are coming
out of Silicon Valley. I think that we probably remain
in the second early third inning. We are not even
(15:00):
close to there yet. What I think the major difference
is by people that live, traffic and work out there,
is that they are thinking many steps ahead in storms
of large scale effects on data on businesses, whereas I
find that my clients and the people that I work
with on Wall Street, outside of let's say the analyst community,
(15:23):
are much more focused on sort of large language models
chat GPT, and that's why I think there is extreme
room to run in the next decade.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Alan McCartney, Managing director, Wealth Management and private wealth Advisor
at Alignment Partners at UBS.
Speaker 5 (15:36):
This is Bloomberg. Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay
and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can
also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
There's been this renewed interest on rare earths and critical
minerals as trade attentions between the US and China have
flared up. On that We've spent quite a bit of
time over the last few months talking about them with
CEOs of companies in the space. Jim Litinski over at
MP Materials, whose company is set to have the Defense
Department take a four hundred million dollar preferred equity stake.
For more on rare earths, we're joined by Oliver Friesen,
(16:28):
CEO at Guardian Metal Resources. It's a London based metals
exploration and development company. It's looking to bring production of
tungsten back to the US. Oliver joins US from Toronto. Oliver,
we've been learning a lot about rares lately. I think
my geology one oh one professor would be very happy
with what we've been talking about. We Gary Evans from
US antimony on last week talking about the importance of
(16:50):
antimony when it comes to ballistics. That was something that
was new to me. Your focus is tungsten. Why is
tungsten important because it's not classified as a rare earth.
Speaker 8 (17:00):
Yeah, well, first of all, thanks for having me on, Tim,
It's great to be here to talk more about tungsten.
Funny enough, you mentioned antimony in the use within munitions
and ballistics. It's the same reason you need tungsten. Tungsten
is one of the most dense metals on the planet
and also has the highest melting point, so it's been
used in the production of munitions for decades and decades
and decades. Now that's just one small use case, but effectively,
(17:20):
when you look at the entire critical metals supply chain,
if even one of those metals isn't there, that can
shut down manufacturing in the United States of America. So
it's important that we focus on not only just rare earths,
which as you mentioned, are very important antimony, but tungsten
is definitely up there, considering the fact that we're very
reliant on unfriendly adversaries for global tungsten supplies.
Speaker 7 (17:41):
So I want to talk a bit more about your
company in particular here which end markets you know, maybe
eves defense renewables are really driving the most urgency for
your business right now?
Speaker 8 (17:52):
Yeah, I would say probably the most urgent use cases
is a cross defense because of that density, it's ubiquitous,
and it's very important in the productions and ammunitions and
things like tank armers as well. So really, right now,
given the geopolitical landscape, we're seeing a huge amount of
a surgeon demand and increasing demand across the defense industry
for this metal. But as you pointed out, you know,
(18:13):
it's not just a defense metal. This is a metal
that's used in a lot of other industries. Some that
come to mind aerospace, automotive, green energy is another one.
It's a really important metal. It's almost irreplaceable in a
lot of these technologies. So Defense is driving the narrative
right now. But the same time, you know, we're hearing
major manufacturers in the United States of America are actually saying,
(18:34):
we can't get this tungsten. If we don't get it,
we're going to be shutting down.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
So the Pentagon in July provide it as six point
two million dollar ward to Golden Metal Resources. It's the
US unit of your company to perform a pre feasibility
study for a tungsten mind near Hawthorne, Nevada. Is this
is this all the financing that you will need? Will
you need more from the DoD, Will you need more
from the government? Will you need to raise more?
Speaker 8 (18:59):
Yeah, So it's it's part of the puzzle for sure.
So that six point two million dollar award that we've
received from the Department Defense, which obviously we're very grateful
to the current administration for that award, will cover some
of the key engineering workstreams as part of that PFS study.
But you're right, there are other expenditures associated with bringing
that project and our projects into production. But concurrently with that,
(19:22):
with that award from the Department of Defense, we raised
twenty one million dollars US dollars, predominantly with existing shareholders,
almost all institutional. So we use those funds to then
cover the other additional costs and all the funding combined.
Really the focus is on delivering two key tungus and
minds to the US market, of which it's a metal
the US has not mined for over a decade.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Do you need government support when it comes to this project.
Speaker 5 (19:49):
We don't.
Speaker 8 (19:51):
And you know, for instance, we acquired Pilot Mount, which
is a project that's received the award from the Department
Defense almost five years ago, so it was a much
different market than the land Escape was much different. And
even at that time, we acquired it because we felt
like it would be an economic tungsten operation. At previous
pricing norms, which is around three hundred dollars, what's called
an metric ton unit are about thirty thousand dollars a ton.
(20:14):
That being said, the price, you know, fast forward five years,
China has completely banned the exports of all tunks into
the US market. The price is closer to fifty thousand
dollars a ton right now. But even at historic norms,
you know, this project in our projects, we believe makes sense.
But obviously you know the tailwinds we're seeing now across
the federal funding landscape, but also permitting gives us that
(20:34):
much more confidence to push these projects forward and deliver
minds in America to the US industrial base and defense partners.
Speaker 7 (20:42):
Oliver, let's talk a little bit about China.
Speaker 9 (20:43):
You brought it up here.
Speaker 7 (20:44):
How do you see China's dominance in the rare earth
processing cheaping your strategy here?
Speaker 8 (20:51):
Yeah, No, it's a really good point, Noraen. I'm glad
you brought it up, because what what sort of sets
tungsen apart from you know, the antimonies and the rarest
says we've discussed, is the fact that the downstream processing
capacity actually fully exists on US soil. It's one of
the kind of the very few critical metals of which
the US has the ability to actually take what's called
a tungsten concentrate and turn it into actual usable finished
(21:15):
products for defense and for industry. So the benefit that
we have is that the only thing missing in the
US right now is a domestic mind source. You know,
we import in the US, all of our concentrates from
other countries, and just to give you a data point, China,
Russian North Korea combined represent ninety percent of total global
(21:36):
supply of tungsen. I'm mean, just let that kind of
data point sit in. But the thing that's missing right
now in the US is the mind supply. The processing
is there. So as soon as we can plug in
R two Nevada based tungs and minds, you have a
fully circular tungsten supply chain that exists within the bounds
of the United States of America.
Speaker 7 (21:56):
So where do you see demand for rare earth materials
and all of that, just more broadly over the next
say five to ten years.
Speaker 8 (22:04):
Yeah, So tungsten specifically, we're seeing very very healthy compound
and annual growth rates across the different sectors.
Speaker 5 (22:11):
That need it.
Speaker 8 (22:12):
Defense is certainly leading the charge right now. You know,
we're seeing we're seeing the EU and NATO and the US.
You know, defense budgets up or up across the board,
So that drives the demand for tungsten, as you can
probably imagine. But also you know, we mentioned automotive, aerospace,
these are all other other sectors that are the demand
for tungsten is increasing quite considerably, so we're seeing healthy
(22:34):
growth across the different growth areas. And another use case
that many of your listeners probably are not aware of
is nuclear fusion, so not to be completely confused with
nuclear fission, but effectively trying to harness the energy of
the sun here on Earth. And the only metal with
a high enough melting point to contain a nuclear fusion
reactor is tungsten. So we see longer term considerable demand
(22:56):
growth from this this very important energy supply excuse me,
technology that should be come in line in the next
couple of years here in next maybe decade.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Terminal
this week was about the Trump administration, or President Trump's
new brand of economic state craft deals like you know
we might see with Intel, for example, or the Department
of Defense deal with MP materials. I mean you could
throw other companies into that as well, AMD and Nvidia.
With fifteen percent of certain ship sales in China going
(23:29):
to the government, maybe even US steal with that so
called golden share that the US government has with US steel.
What's in your view, because you've taken some money from
the government this year what's the difference between a deal
like the one that MP Materials got in which the
DoD will take a stake and the stake that the
Trump administration is contemplating taking an intel. Do you see
(23:50):
a difference in those deals?
Speaker 8 (23:53):
Yeah, for sure. So the MP Materials deal is pretty
groundbreaking for this sector. And I think this is really
a strong signal to the US critical medals industry that that,
you know, the administration is serious about mind in America,
which is really encouraging to see. So the MP Materials deal,
there's lots of different parts to that. One of them
(24:13):
is the price floor of the direct investment and also
the federal award as well. So we've received just an award,
So this is that this is money that we can
go and use to fast track key engineering steps as
part of our project. But what I'll say is that
you know, there there's you know, there's there's speculation that
some of these unique uh and new sort of benefits
(24:33):
that MP has had with this deal could could be
applied across the sector. So effectively, the doors have opened
up for this this this type of deal to be
done across the defense supply chain, but also the critical
metal supply chain. So anyways, I think that all in all,
it's it's a really strong signal to the market. It's
a really strong signal to myself as a CEO of
a critical metals company that the US administration is serious
(24:54):
about minds in America and that obviously means that we
have these projects at exactly the right time and trying
to over this key metal to the US market.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
We're speaking with Oliver Freesa and the CEO at Guardian
and Metal Resources, to London based metals exploration and development company.
It's looking to bring production of tungskin back to the US. Oliver,
you mentioned the door is open. Is your door open
for an investment from the US government where the government
or the Department of Defense would actually take an equity
stake in the company.
Speaker 5 (25:22):
Would you welcome that?
Speaker 8 (25:25):
Of course, yeah, we'd be We'd more than welcome that.
Like I said, we all we have right now is
the award from the Deity, which is incredibly important for
the business. But you know, we're we're we're Our goal
here is to deliver these minds to the US market.
So anything that we can do to help get support
from the current administration and across the industry. We will
absolutely have that conversation, but the time is so critical
(25:47):
right now. Like I said, the US has no domestic
mind supply, and we believe that we are the leading
company when it comes to tungsten expression development. So we're
absolutely looking to have any conversation that will help us
get to our goal.
Speaker 7 (25:59):
Quicker, are you having conversations right now about that?
Speaker 8 (26:03):
I can't speak to that. What I can say is that,
you know, the award that we received from the Department
of Defense was only about three weeks ago, so we're
now really focused on getting that money and focusing it
in the ground and towards towards creating US jobs at
our projects. So that's the focus right now. But obviously,
you know, we're looking to tap into anytail ones that
can be available to defense and critical metals companies that
(26:26):
are focused on US projects.
Speaker 7 (26:28):
Oliver, how do you navigate trade tensions and resource nationalism
and markets where you operate?
Speaker 8 (26:34):
Yeah, I mean we try to get too focused on that.
You know, it's uh, there's a lot of noise out there.
There's a lot of movement across tariffs and and and
you know trade relationships. Right now, I think the main
signal to to to our company and to myself is
the CEO is that there's a huge push for minds
in America. We want to see these metals actually being
(26:54):
mined on American soil. So we try not to get
too kind of caught up in the day to day.
You know, we have a job here, which is to
deliver these projects to the US market. But it's encouraging
to see some of these things that I think really
once again point to the fact that the current administration
is very focused on mind in America and nowhere else
in the world. So that's obviously a huge benefit benefit
(27:16):
to us as owners of two key tunks and projects
that are both on US soil and also in the
great state of Nevada, which is a very mining friendly
place to be operating.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Oliver, Yes or no, how quickly? Or can I should
say the US become rare with independent from China?
Speaker 8 (27:31):
Oh man, it's a good question. I mean, yes, we can.
I mean there's some great geology here. We need a
huge amount of support from the administration, which we're seeing now.
We have to carry through. That's the biggest thing. We
can't stop start, stop start if we have this same
sort of support push forward over five, ten, fifteen years,
the landscape will look a lot different and the US
will become a lot less reliant on unfriendly countries. For
(27:51):
these key input medals.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
Oliver Fries and CEO at Guardian Metal Resources, stay with us.
More from Bloomberg Business Weekday coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during
Listen on Alvacarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 7 (28:19):
It's been a big week of retail earnings and it's
telling us a lot about the state of the US
consumer Home depot sales, missed expectations, Walmart reporter rere miss
on profit expectations, Target delivered a discouraging full year sales outlook,
and the list goes on and on. But we've got
two wonderful reporters here to shed light on this and
a lot more this afternoon. Janette Newman, Bloomberg News Consumer reporter,
(28:40):
and Jennifer Bartasha's Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer team leader and senior
retail staples and packaged foot food analysts are here to
discuss that is a long title. Sounds like she does
a lot here, But Jeanette, I'll start with you one
of the latest retail earnings telling you about the state
of the US consumer right now.
Speaker 10 (28:59):
I think over all that the US consumer is actually
doing okay. I think there's there's a note of caution
looking forward because a lot of what's been you know,
sold in the in the last couple quarters, price price
increases has not hit those goods, and so there's concern
about when price increases really do start to flow through,
(29:19):
what how consumers will will react. But despite some of
the you know what you what you mentioned Noura with
the results, I mean, Walmart did have a profit miss
that's very rare. That had to do with some claims,
but they actually raised their sales guidance for the year,
which was already which was already pretty high. So that
shows that there they do have some confidence in the
consumer in the year in the year ahead.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
A Jen come on in here, because we spoke earlier
with the CFO of KAVA, Tricia Toliver joined us and
she said last week and she kind of reiterated today
that there's this fluid macroeconomic environment that these are her words,
she said, it creates a fog for consumers and during
those times they tend to step off the gas. Would
(29:59):
you say that that the view you have at Bloomberg
Intelligence about the consumer, that it's foggy and as a
result of that fog, consumers are pulling back a little bit.
Speaker 4 (30:08):
Yeah. I think that's a pretty good insight. You know,
when we look at the consumer and you look at
sort of the bigger numbers in terms of the economy,
the consumer is hanging in there. But the consumer has
been conservative for a long time. It really started when
we had high food inflation, and as soon as that
started to roll back, we had pressure from tariffs, and
(30:31):
there's just uncertainty. And when that consumer is uncertain, they
still buy the things that they need to buy. They're
still going on vacation, but they're just being a little
bit more prudent. And until we have a little bit
more clarity, we're not expecting that to really change.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Jen, what is the bifurcation that you're seeing at Bloomberg
Intelligence when it comes to consumers, those at the higher
end of the income spectrum versus what those at the
lower end of the income spectrum are doing and We've
talked a lot for years about the K shaped recovery.
Kind of sounds like we're still there. Maybe it's even
more pronounced.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
It's pretty pronounced. You know, lower income consumers continue to
be pressured when you look at retailers that really have
a lot of those customers in their base, and that
would be the Walmart's of the world, it would be
Dollar Generals of the world. You know, you see that
the spending and the average ticket and the traffic into
those stores in some instances is a little bit pressured.
(31:26):
At the same time, you know, higher income households are
almost kind of going along as normal. They're still seeking value,
but they're taking advantage of all the value that's being
offered out to the broader economy and they're saving money
that way. So it's an interesting thing to track and
how those two different parts of the consumer base are
(31:48):
really behaving a little bit differently.
Speaker 10 (31:50):
And everybody loves a deal, right and Walmart has actually,
you know, to what Jen's saying, Walmart has has benefited
from everyone loving a deal and is attracting increasingly more
higher income consumers and that's part of what's helped boost
its its sales and that's been a strategy. You know
a lot of those consumers went to Walmart during the
pandemic to get groceries and then have increasingly kind of
(32:12):
bought more and more. Walmart is stepping up. You know,
it's clothing offering, and so that's also you know, that's helping,
that's helping Walmart.
Speaker 5 (32:19):
Are those consumers sticky with Walmart?
Speaker 10 (32:22):
Yes, they are, They are sticky, and that's been that's
been part of the that's been part of Walmart's success
because they go to the grocery, they go and they
get the groceries, and then they see, actually, like Walmart
has great genes. Now Walmart has knows that these consumers.
Speaker 5 (32:34):
Well, that was an American Eagle reference, wasn't it.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
Know.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
We're not going to definitely, we're not going to get
We're not aget talking Sidney.
Speaker 5 (32:45):
Not moving on. Sorry, go ahead, chapter, next chapter.
Speaker 10 (32:49):
And that that also is you know, Walmart has been
seizing on that and Target has been missing out. Target
has not been doing well. They obviously just appointed a
new CEO. He's an insider.
Speaker 5 (33:00):
It's an amazing story.
Speaker 10 (33:01):
It is an amazing story. It is an amazing story.
But the market's not that impressed.
Speaker 7 (33:05):
Though, that's what we're seeing. But I mean you also
come for companies like Sday Latter. We talked about Walmart.
Of course, we know that has a lot of those
consumers staples opportunities there. But when we look at Esta
Latter and a lot of competitors like that on the
more luxury end, what are the contours of consumer spending
in that space right now?
Speaker 10 (33:23):
You know, beauty overall is doing okay again, kind of
still slowing down a little bit, but still writing a
post pandemic boom when we all got into you know,
lots of different lots of different beauty products at one
at one time. But Stay Latter is not doing that well.
So that's kind of like even though the consumer right
now is okay, a little bit conservative, like like Jen said,
(33:44):
but Walmart is doing overall really well. Target is not
doing great. That's also because of differences with the two
companies and how they're run. Similarly, Loreal, huge beauty company,
obviously is actually doing really well. Stay Latter. No, their
sales in the most recent fiscal year that just ended,
we're down eight percent, and those are kind of internal
internal problems that they've been that they've been dealing with Jennifer.
(34:04):
I want to bring you back into the conversation here.
Are we seeing any sense of consumer fatigue right now,
especially when we know inflation is super high and if
you were to ask the average person, they do think
that things are kind of tight right now.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
I don't know that we're seeing a lot of fatigue.
I think people have sort of adjusted to what is
sort of almost a new normal, and that's a little
bit post food inflation. They've seen prices come down in
different ways, especially on the grocery side and some of
the general merchandise, like entry level fashion, and so I
think that gives the perception of a little bit of relief.
(34:41):
So I don't think people are really pulling back anymore,
but they're not also simultaneously really loosening the purse strings.
It seems like we've sort of settled into kind of
this new normal, this new normal range. One other note
on Walmart that I think is pretty interesting. When you're
talking about retention, you can't you can't not talk about
(35:01):
Walmart Plus, which is a huge loyalty program and they're
generating a lot of incremental revenue off of it, and
people who get in there, they keep renewing and it
just locks in loyalty and locks in spending, and we're
seeing that across all income cohorts.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Wait wait, wait, can you talk a little bit more
about that? And I think, I think what this is
not an ad for American Express, but I will say,
if you have a certain American Express card, you can
get a free membership to the program.
Speaker 7 (35:28):
Which one do you want to.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
I think it's the Platinum card. I believe, Yeah, I
believe that's what it is. Thanks for calling you.
Speaker 4 (35:36):
Actually just completed a survey of one thousand Walmart Plus subscribers,
and what's really interesting is that eighty three percent of
Walmart Plus subscribers also have an Amazon Prime membership, but
that doesn't stop them from maximizing their Walmart Plus value.
And so I think that it really illustrates how Walmart
has very uniquely carved out a survey and a recurring
(36:01):
revenue stream that is really pretty remarkable. And that the
fact that a lot of the people who are in
that program are making digital orders, that's driving their digital
revenue for advertising, and it's really adding to just the
overall flywheel of Walmart. So there's a lot of really
interesting things happening that are really stemming from some of
(36:22):
these intelligent decisions they made maybe five years ago to
introduce that Walmart Plus program.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
That's a fascinating thing to hear because it was always
sort of an out also ran when it comes to
Amazon Prime, So it's interesting to hear that. Jen Janette,
I want to bring you back in here and talk
a little bit about Target. You mentioned the CEO change
the news we got earlier this week. You said investors
didn't love it. A lot of the conversation around Target
over the last couple of years, well, actually really over
(36:49):
the last year or so has had to do with
backlash against DEI efforts and to what extent, in your view,
that actually affected company sales or the image of what
that looked like for consumers.
Speaker 5 (37:00):
What do we know about this?
Speaker 10 (37:02):
The company executives at Target have said that the backlash,
like black, black consumers not shopping at Target, has had
an impact on sales. They have not quantified that, and
so we don't really know. These kinds of boycotts don't
often have a huge effect, but they have said that
it had that it had an effect, and I think
also more more importantly, even in some of the analyst notes,
(37:24):
and you hear investors talking about the staff at Target.
We've had some reporting it's nearly sixty percent of staff
at Target are people of color, and so the staff
itself has been upset by everything that's been going on
with Target pulling back on DEI and that is that
is something that some people think is kind of behind
(37:46):
some of this tumult with with staff. Job in retail
is so difficult, and you need especially now, and you
need great staff, and you need people who are going
to stick around and they know how.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
The stores work.
Speaker 10 (37:56):
So that has also been a problem, whereas you don't
hear those same complaints from staff at Walmart, for example.
Excuse me. They've also been increasing the salaries that they're
paying their their top employees, so that is also an
issue at Target. Is the issue with staff.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Well, we love talking retail and the consumer with both
of you. Thank you so much for joining us. Jene Newman,
Bloomberg News Consumer reporter and Jennifer Bartasha's Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer
Team leader and senior Retail Staples and Package of Food analysts.
Check out Janette's reporting on the Bloomberg terminal and Jennifer's
research on the Bloomberg Terminal, also, of course, at bloomberg
dot com.
Speaker 1 (38:34):
This is the Bloomberg Businessweekdaily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday
afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(38:55):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Hosts And Creators
Tim Stenovec
Carol Massar
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.