January 2, 2025 • 33 mins
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg News Auto Reporter Keith Naughton reports on Tesla's annual vehicle sales dropping for the first time in over a decade, with 1.79 million vehicles sold in 2024. Bill Smead, CIO at Smead Capital Management, explains why we're in the late stages of a major financial euphoria episode. Jesse Draper, Founding Partner of Halogen Ventures, discusses what could reshape the investment landscape for female tech founders. And we Drive to the Close with Vincent Catalano, Chief Markets Strategist, Stuyvesant Capital Management.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Business Week,
Insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's
most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news.
The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim
(00:23):
Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I want to bring in Bloomberg News Audo reporter Keith
Naughton for more on this and then some other Tesla
news that we learned a little earlier today that Tesla's
annual vehicle sales dropped for the first time in more
than a decade, to spite a year and push that
sent deliveries to a record in the fourth quarter. Tesla
shares selling off as a result. We're going to get
to that in just a minute, Keith, but I do
want to start with the news just moments ago that
(00:49):
we learned from officials in Las Vegas that members of
Tesla's staff are on their way to Las Vegas to
assist law enforcement agents with finding information from this cyber
truck that yesterday had an explosive device or explosive devices
in it. I'm curious what types of information they can
get from what happens inside of Tesla what happens outside
(01:12):
of Tesla, Because for people who aren't familiar with these vehicles,
these have quite a few cameras recording at all times
on the outside well for sure.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
So you know, modern vehicles, particularly Tesla's, are highly sophisticated.
They have a lot of devices that record what goes
on in the car, Cameras being one of them. And
so while they're not for the level of a black
box on a jet or something like that, it can
provide a lot of important information if you're doing an
investigation like this. You know, we have two incidents yesterday,
(01:44):
the one in Vegas with the Tesla cybertruck and then
the attack in New Orleans on Bourbon Street, and that
was with a Ford F one fifty lightning.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
I've been on the phone with Ford this morning, and they.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Are also cooperating with authorities to provide them any information.
And they can glean from that F one fifty lightning.
So the weight modern cars, particularly electric vehicles, so these
are both electric vehicles, both rented from turo B any way,
and so they can provide all sorts of interesting and
helpful data as this investigation goes on.
Speaker 5 (02:16):
I got to ask you, Keith.
Speaker 6 (02:18):
Okay, and again forgive us folks, because we're trying to
be very careful here and really just talk about facts
and stuff.
Speaker 5 (02:23):
But is it interesting that both were electric vehicles?
Speaker 4 (02:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Well, I mean one way to look at that, and
again I don't want to go too far into the
speculation exactly, but electric vehicles, in the case of the
New Orleans attack, they are powered by a battery that
is very heavy.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
That adds thousands of pounds of weight to the vehicle.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
So you know, if you're looking to maximize destructive properties,
more weight will do that.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Keith, what do you make of the Turo connection here?
I think a lot of folks might be familiar with
traditional places to rent a vehicle, but are now hearing
about Tururo for the first.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
Time, right and Turo, you know, it can be a
little bit like automotive Airbnb. Sometimes it's individuals who are
renting out their exotic cars.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Turrow has been known for exotics and for electric vehicles.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
We don't know, or I don't know the details of
how these two were rented and where they come from.
I know that in the case of Forward from my
conversations with them, they're trying to help with that, but
it is it is a rental traditionally that has rented
more exotic cars, different cars, electric vehicles, not your standard,
(03:33):
you know, Hurtznatus.
Speaker 6 (03:35):
All right, we're going to move along, and obviously we're
going to continue to monitor any headlines that might come
out on either situation in New Orleans or in Vegas.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
But Keith, we.
Speaker 6 (03:44):
Initially thought we were going to talk to you about
Tesla's sales numbers, which we'd given everybody a heads up
on New Year's Eve that we expected there to be
some disappointment. I am curious, though Tesla's shares are selling off,
our investor's right to be disappointed.
Speaker 5 (04:00):
Is it a big deal for Tesla?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
It is a big deal because it's the first decline
in annual sales in more than a decade. And to
put it in context, when that last drop happened between
two thousand and ten and twenty eleven, Tesla was selling
about twelve hundred vehicles a year back then. It's now
selling close to two million, So it's a completely different situation.
(04:23):
And you know, everyone, once in a while, the market
is reminded that, yes, Tesla is a car company, and
if they don't sell enough cars, they don't make enough money.
The stock has been on a tear, particularly since the election,
because everyone was excited about the political influence.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
That Elon Musk would have.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
It's been also rising since Elon Musk has focused so
much more on AI and the robotaxi they're developing. But
when it comes down to it, Tesla needs to sell
electric vehicles and they're having a harder time doing that.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Is Tesla having the same issues that other EV companies
are having competition from China less of an interest in
evs and more of an interest in hybrids, high ticket
prices that many Americans and people around the world can't
necessarily afford, especially when you compare it with those Chinese
evs and then cars from with the traditional internal combustion engines.
(05:16):
Is that what the issue is?
Speaker 3 (05:18):
Yeah, absolutely, Tesla is facing those same headwinds as the
rest of the industry. But Tesla has an additional headwind
and that is the rest of the industry. You know,
they basically had the EV market to themselves until a
few years ago, and particularly in this past year, we
now have I think seventy five evs on the US market,
So you have GM coming finally with their evs and
(05:40):
their lower price, where Tesla doesn't have much product to
play with.
Speaker 4 (05:45):
But Tesla really needs to get its volumes back up.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
Is this model y refresh known as Juniper that's coming
next year, that's supposed to be in the mid thirty
thousand range. Right now, Tesla's average prices are above forty thousand,
and they've come down a lot because Tesla's resorted to
the old fashioned, you know, marketing incentives that normal carmakers do,
(06:08):
like zero percent financing and free charging.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
So they've they've done.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
That and their prices have come down a bit, but
they're still a little high for mainstream buyers.
Speaker 6 (06:17):
I mean, is Tesla getting to the point, you know,
we often talk about a tech company that's, you know,
an upstart, you know, on a growth trajectory, kind of
owns its market and then it matures a little bit.
Is that kind of what's happening, Keith? I mean, can
we kind of put that label on Tesla? Are not necessarily.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Definitely from its you know, traditional EV selling business.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
It has matured at a very time, at the very
time that.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
As we said, the EV market is slowing, so you know,
it's just a harder sell with evs right now. The
growth rate of EV's last year was in the mid
seven percent.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
You know, the year before was forty seven percent.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So we're in a very cooling market for pure electric
vehicles and that's all Tesla sells. And test Tha's lineup
is really aging, so they desperately need new and refreshed
product to reinvigorate their sales.
Speaker 6 (07:07):
All right, going to leave it on that note. Keith Noughton,
thank you so much. Auto reporter O at Bloomberg News
joining us from Detroit.
Speaker 7 (07:11):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen
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or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 6 (07:25):
All right, let's get out to someone who's got to
make investment bets. And he recently wrote about the parallel
between the dot com bubble and today's AI driven euphoria.
He says, we are in the late stages of a
major financial euphoria episode. We welcome back Bill Smeed, cio
over at Smeed Capital Management. They've got approximately seven and
a half billion dollars in assets under management. Bill, joining
(07:45):
us on this Thursday. It is Thursday, it's a new year.
Joining us from Phoenix, Arizona. Bill, Good to have you
back with us. Happy new Year.
Speaker 5 (07:55):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (07:55):
Tell us about this parallel between the dot com bubble
and the AI. We've talked this actually a fair amount
here at Bloomberg. Does it burst then at some point?
And how do you tell or any indication of when
that happens.
Speaker 8 (08:10):
Well, I listened to your prior segment. This won't be
a black swan, that this will be an in your
face duck. In other words, it is absolutely inevitable. Here's
what I love about the current euphoria. All the other
euphorias front loaded the stock prices of the beneficiaries of.
Speaker 9 (08:32):
The new legitimate business development.
Speaker 8 (08:35):
So in twenty nine it was front loading the excitement
about radio and RCA was the Nvidia, And.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
Then in sixty nine to seventy it was landing on the.
Speaker 8 (08:44):
Moon in the semiconductor and ultimately peaked out with a
nifty to fifty, And then in ninety nine it was
the Internet was going.
Speaker 6 (08:52):
To change our life.
Speaker 10 (08:53):
Did they succeed?
Speaker 9 (08:55):
Did all those legitimate developments play out and.
Speaker 8 (08:58):
Get used dramatically more and completely changed the way Americans operated.
The answer is yes. And did people get crushed in
the stock market in all prior cases?
Speaker 9 (09:12):
And the answer is yes. So if you own the
momentum trades of.
Speaker 8 (09:18):
The last three or four years, whether it be a
year from now or a month from now or three
weeks ago, the pain that people are going to get
exhibited on them versus the trade off of an additional
year of glorious success like the last two years will
be It's a bad risk reward relationship. And it's right
(09:39):
in front of everyone's face. It's not a black swan,
it's not hidden anywhere. And your friend in London made
the right call. We've got fifteen different indicators, not just
the option trading. Virtually every measurement tool for measuring historical
stock market valuation is at the absolute ninety eight percentile
(10:02):
or higher right now?
Speaker 4 (10:04):
All right?
Speaker 6 (10:05):
So then if we agree with you, then what happens
like how much of a market decline, how much has
to be kind of taken off? What kind of froth
needs to be taken off in your view to make
it more normalized?
Speaker 8 (10:17):
Yeah, I think you go to seventy three seventy four,
And the problem is seventy three seventy four was a
fifty percent decline in the S and P over two years,
and then didn't come out of it until nineteen eighty two. Right,
(10:38):
the Dow used to be the primary benchmark at that time,
and the Dow kept peeking out at one thousand, including
in nineteen seventy two, and then we started from seven
to seventy five on the Dow at the bottom in
August of nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 4 (10:54):
But Bill had been we.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
Only have a couple of minutes.
Speaker 6 (10:57):
But I want to ask you, though, it's safe to
say that today's marketplace maybe not the same as seventy
or what was going on in the seventies. And maybe
I just think about the frequency with how information kind
of flies through the market and social media and the velocity,
and when things don't look right, they kind of get
taken down pretty quickly.
Speaker 8 (11:18):
Yeah, it's different this time, I think, is what you're asking.
Speaker 10 (11:22):
It is different.
Speaker 8 (11:23):
It's always different this time, it's always different.
Speaker 9 (11:27):
But the similarities is what kill you.
Speaker 8 (11:29):
So I happen to read a piece this last week
from twenty fourteen from Warren Buffett, and this is twenty fourteen,
he said, you know, the market spends most of its
time reasonably priced, and he calls that reasonableness. But in
twenty fourteen he said in his career five times it
(11:51):
lost its reasonableness, and that was in twenty fourteen.
Speaker 10 (11:56):
So I think when his partner Charlie Munger said this
is the big financially forty episode of his career because
of the totality of a few years ago, I think
Buffett is demonstrating through raising cash that he thinks this
market lacks reasonableness.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
So where the just we have thirty seconds left, where
the opportunities for this year.
Speaker 8 (12:19):
The opportunities are spelled E N E RGY.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
We've heard that from you before.
Speaker 8 (12:25):
Electricity forty percent of electricity is made with natural gas.
That I'm not a commodity trader, but that's what I'd
be all over on oil and gas stocks.
Speaker 9 (12:34):
The price of oil is not going to go down.
By the way, pertaining to your prior conversation, people that
live in China their body temperatures ninety eight point six.
It's the oldest civilization in the world, and they're very
intelligent people. The chance of them pulling themselves out of
This is one hundred percent and American exceptionalism is way
overcooked because we're just ninety eight point six and that's
(12:56):
all wherever going to be.
Speaker 5 (12:58):
All right, Gonna have to leave it on that now.
Thank you so much.
Speaker 6 (13:00):
We know we had a lot of breaking news and
we had to jump around a little bit, but Bill Smead,
we really appreciate getting some time with you. Bill Smead,
Chief Investment Officer. It's Meet Capital Management, coming to us
from Phoenix, Arizona.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from two to five ese during Listen
on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
This is not going to surprise anyone who has listened
to or watched our show in the past because we
talk about this a lot. But women founded startups get
only a fraction of the VC funding of male startups.
I mean we're talking single digits here. I mean depending
on by far so much, depending on which data you
look at via you know, Pitchbook or others, it's like
single digits. Yeah, but they made gains last year. Women
(13:47):
in non binary VC investors have gained a foothold in
the tech industry, five years faster than the advocacy group
all RAYS expected, but leaders say a national backlash diversity,
equality and inclusion initiatives threatens the progress that's been made.
So Carol, about eighteen percent of decision makers at USVC
firms are female. It's double from twenty eighteen when all
Rays was founded and set a goal of reaching that
(14:09):
number by twenty twenty eight that's according to the group's
in Your report that was published last year. So some progress,
some progress, some progress, some progress.
Speaker 6 (14:16):
Let's see what Jesse Draper has to say about that.
She's founding partner of Halogen Ventures. The VC firm has
invested in more than seventy five female founded tech startups,
including baby List, Flex, everly Well, and more. She joins
us on this Thursday from Los Angeles. Jesse, good to
be talking again with you. It does feel like, first
of all, that there is a backlash on all things
(14:37):
DEI how is that potentially going to impact the VC world,
which already when it comes to female founded firms, I mean, man,
they have to struggle to find funding.
Speaker 11 (14:50):
They do have to struggle to find funding. But you know,
the best companies will get funded. I think the most
important thing right now that we think about is just
getting capital into the hands of women, and that could
be a female and the founding team. Like at Hallajenventus
when we invest, there has to be a female in
the founding team. And we were still part of one
of the largest raises of twenty twenty four, which was
(15:13):
a one point nine billion dollar raise with a female
and the founding team. And it's called Metropolis. It's a
parking technology company. You know, there's no lack of incredible
deals being started by women. I think it's about looking
at the world a little differently, getting into new networks
and breaking out of like our traditional way of deploying capital. Also,
(15:38):
thank you for having me again, Carol and Tim.
Speaker 10 (15:40):
It's good.
Speaker 5 (15:41):
It's good to be You're welcome. You're welcome, you know, sire.
Speaker 6 (15:44):
I was just looking at Tim and I'm just saying, listen.
Part of the reason it's fun to do a show
man woman whatever, like some diversity, Like we do look
at things differently, Tim and I do think about what's
being lost in the VC world by now looking at
female founded firms who look at the world differently, and
maybe what's needed.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Well, Jesse, talk a little bit about networks, because this
is something you absolutely understand being in the space and
essentially growing up in the space. What are networks when
it comes to venture capital? Pull the curtain back a little.
Speaker 11 (16:14):
Bit, so I look at it as networks and tech ecosystems.
So when I think about networks, you know, I think
women lack those networks. Traditionally, men have one passed the
pocketbooks down from generation to generation, and we need to
like break the women in there. Right now is the
largest transference of generational wealth, and the majority of that
(16:35):
is actually going to be going to women. So we
need women investing and we need capital going to women,
which hopefully will inevitably happen. We are you know, I
think about networks, and you would start with, say Stanford,
where Silicon Valley is where I literally grew up. I've
lived in LA for twenty years, but you know, Stanford
started the first sort of technology ecosystem as we know it.
(16:59):
And these typically begin with a university, and so you
build that out because then great talent comes from the university,
great ideas come from the university, and ultimately great companies
spin out of that University. So, you know, you look
at the great tech ecosystems across the country. Those networks
are starting to broaden because we're now seeing many more
(17:22):
than just twelve technology cities across the country. We at
Halijn Ventures actually just announced that we were the first
out of state investment that Innovate Alabama made into a fund.
And so we've partnered with Innovate Alabama and we have
been going and researching and digging in and meeting with
hundreds of entrepreneurs in Alabama. And I have to say,
(17:45):
even I was surprised by I hadn't spent a ton
of time in Alabama. I don't know that a lot
of people in California have. I shouldn't generalize there, but
there are some amazing tech ecosystems there. There's world class university,
over fifty Fortune five hundred companies represented too are actually
based there, a lot of great aerospace ag tech, you know,
(18:07):
And I'm blown away by the incredible talent in Alabama.
And I think we just need to start looking at
new tech ecosystems, starting with new universities in different locations.
There's a lot going on in the South, and we're
really trying to capitalize on that. I think also as
a strategy, we're really thinking how do we get out
(18:29):
of those typical networks where people are only investing in
the Stanfords and the Harvards of the world, which you know,
we have Stanfords and Harvard's in our portfolio as well,
but I think it's important to create a well diversified portfolio.
And if you look at ecosystems around the world, even
in like Sub Saharan Africa, they often give capital to
the women to build the community and build the ecosystem
(18:53):
and build the wealth for families.
Speaker 6 (18:55):
Right, go back to I'm just Mohammed yunus, right the problem, No,
you think about my micro you know, investing micro lending
in particular, it was to the woman because she would
put the money to work, and sometimes it was making
baskets or doing something that seems so basic, but it
created income for that family, and she paid back the
loan and it created a better life for that family.
(19:16):
I want to go back though, to what you're saying
about working with Alabama and some other universities. It reminds
me of Steve Case, you know, the AOL co founder,
And yeah, exactly, like yeah, and the future of technology
being outside Silicon Valley. Talk to us a little bit
about your portfolio and what you're you know, in a
world where we spend so much time talking about artificial
(19:38):
intelligence and generative AI and super high tech things going
on and autonomous driving and robots, Like, what is it
that you know where you are putting your VC money
at this point?
Speaker 11 (19:50):
Yeah, thank you for asking that.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
You know, So we are.
Speaker 11 (19:53):
We have over seventy five companies now and five of
those are current unicorns. We're still young in the space,
but we're doing fantastic. I'm really proud of our portfolio
and we're excited about investing in Alabama because Alabama is
actually unfortunately listed as fiftieth in quite a few things,
(20:14):
education among them, but most pertinent too Halogen. It is
ranked fiftieth for female founders, and so we really wanted
to make change there and innovate. Alabama was excited about
our thesis. Our current thesis is around future of family,
how do you support the family at work, at home,
(20:34):
the physical health of the family, and the financial health
of the family. And the reason we invested in that
is it's actually a research based thesis that we created
because we looked at our past two portfolios and realized
about a dozen of our companies were in the childcare
and future of family space, which is a seven point
five trillion dollar opportunity. And these are companies like Binti
(20:56):
Solving Adoption now in four hundred social services agencies across
the country upwards, which has sixty six thousand in home
vetted childcare locations for the zero to six year old.
This is the most affordable option for childcare below the
age of six in the United States, which is a
place we've completely forgotten about children, and also the most
(21:18):
important to invest in because that's where neglect happens and
all these terrible things. So we're investing and this is
that's the largest actually network of child care facilities in
the country. We're also in baby List, a billion dollar
baby registry company that will likely go public in the
next couple of years.
Speaker 5 (21:35):
I'm not sharing anything.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Jesse, I'm wondering how you disrupt the childcare industry. As
a parent of young kids, and we're constantly struggling to
find childcare. It's incredibly expensive here in New York City
and around the country now affordable, totally unffordable. How do
you how do you just that's the venture capital approach
to childcare. How do you solve this?
Speaker 5 (21:54):
How do you make it cheaper and more accessible?
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Right, this doesn't seem like.
Speaker 11 (21:57):
Something that's scalable exactly, so you make much more Like
you're saying, we are very focused on affordable childcare, on
healthcare for families, on financial management tools, which was sort
of an interesting piece of our data that we found
that families were looking for, like how do we manage
our money? So we're investors in Sally Quachec's company, Elves,
the first financial management platform to take child care into account.
(22:21):
But Upwards, which I was mentioning, they're actually solving that
problem of unaffordable childcare because ninety nine percent of society
can't afford a you know, private preschool or preschool just
in general, and Upwards is finding these locations, vetting them
and now has sixty six thousand, many in Alabama, all
(22:41):
across the country, and they have corporate benefits programs, they
have they signed an a figure deal with the governments
to subsidize costs for those living below the poverty line.
And so we're really trying to solve those issues in
society that I think people have forgotten about you know,
we're in this company, Binti, And really it was like
(23:04):
people are still to day matching children with homes, both
foster and adoptive by hand. The founder was meeting with
these these families and then meeting with these social service
agents who'd have stacks of papers and say, here's my
family cases. You know, here's the kids looking for families,
and it's completely inefficient. So they created some great technology.
(23:27):
They now match the families, find the families, build the families,
and they're just listening to what these families need and
they're doing incredibly well. So there's a huge opportunity and
I know we're also making an impact, but you know,
I am looking to obviously capitalize on this opportunity while
making an impact. And I think that's what people think. Oh,
(23:48):
investing in women is charity. Investing in childcare. People were
telling me wasn't a big enough opportunity even though it
affects so much of society, right, And I you know,
I said, okay, well I'll take that as a little
challenge and we'll show you how massive this opportunity is.
And it's a seven point five trillion dollar opportunity.
Speaker 6 (24:09):
Jesse, just to really recap. Just got to be quick though,
please twenty seconds, twenty five seconds. The incoming administration, new administration,
is that going to impact your world? Are you anticipating
that just quickly?
Speaker 11 (24:20):
I think it is already impacting my world. You know,
they're doing away with a lot of DEI opportunities for companies.
I think I just really would encourage the business ecosystem,
technology ecosystem to invest your dollars, make sure that they
(24:40):
are supporting women and diversity in general at the company stages,
especially at the earliest stages.
Speaker 5 (24:47):
It is affecting us.
Speaker 11 (24:48):
So make sure we're breaking out of those traditional dude networks.
And I love dudes just.
Speaker 5 (24:53):
Like everybody else.
Speaker 11 (24:54):
Little boys that just break out of those networks. Make
sure you're pulling a woman in the boardroom.
Speaker 6 (25:00):
I'm totally a good, totally gah singing listen, Happy New York.
Good to check in with you. Of course, that is
Jesse Draper of Halogen Ventures.
Speaker 5 (25:07):
I'm Rob macle I'll bet you let me drive.
Speaker 7 (25:11):
Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a twenty He's
going to jug.
Speaker 5 (25:15):
Any please, I'll do the riding gravels. Let's wait I
want to drive.
Speaker 7 (25:20):
It's a good question time. This is the drive to
the clothes now plunks for mefic well drin on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 6 (25:33):
All right, TikTok, everybody, Just about eighteen minutes to go
until we wrap up the first training day of twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 5 (25:38):
Definitely off our best levels of the session.
Speaker 6 (25:39):
What felt like a little bit of maybe a rally
a different trade based on the last four days of
twenty twenty four has kind of run out of steam here, Tim.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Yeah, it has taken a look at the major equity indices.
We did see hire to start the day. We're off
our worst levels of the session. Still done three tens
of one percent pretty much across the board.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
All right, let's see what our drive to the closed
guest has to say back with us.
Speaker 5 (26:00):
It's been a while.
Speaker 6 (26:01):
Vince Kalano Chief markeut strigis over at Stuyvesant Capital Management,
joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.
Speaker 5 (26:08):
Happy New Year. How are you.
Speaker 12 (26:09):
I'm well, I'm well. Happy to get to both of you.
Thank you, Yeah, thank you.
Speaker 6 (26:13):
It's good to have you here. I mean we have
talked with you over the years. Different market cycles. How
are you thinking about twenty twenty five and what will
be really kind of the big catalysts of the year.
Is it, as we talked earlier with our own Sam
Potter and Shnelli Bossik, is it all about the upcoming
new Trump administration and what kind of policies we get.
Speaker 12 (26:33):
Well, if you listen to Jason Furman, which I reached
out to, or Ian Brimmer, who I reached out to also,
they would say, yeah, it would be economics, the Trump
administration taris, what does it mean, what are the consequences,
et cetera. Now, if you, on the other hand, talk
to somewhat of that I call nostril Domis because he
tries to sniff out the future as opposed to the
(26:55):
Nostradamis and not being Sam Stowell, he will tell you
that right now today is not a particularly positive sign
from a market historical perspective.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
Why is today not a positive sign?
Speaker 12 (27:08):
Because when you make a lower low in January lower
than you did at the low point in December, then
many more times than not, the year ahead turns out
to be a negative year.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Are you speaking like a market technician or like a CFA.
Speaker 12 (27:23):
No, No, not to c if a time.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Okay, I'm just wondering.
Speaker 5 (27:28):
First day. It's only the first day of January. I'm sorry,
it's only the first day of January.
Speaker 12 (27:32):
That's right. But if you go strictly by what he says,
historical information says that when you make a lower low
in the first quarter, and it just happens to be
that today's the first day of the first quarter, well
then you end up in a period where the probabilities are.
Speaker 5 (27:48):
So it doesn't matter when it happens.
Speaker 6 (27:49):
Remember, even if we get a rally in the next
two or three weeks, your point is that we made
this low today.
Speaker 12 (27:54):
You made the lower low today, and the probabilities are
that you're going to have a down year for the year,
or certainly if you an up year, the year is
going to be modest. So that's the historical information. Now,
when you add to that certain other market technical issues
that you referenced him, then yeah, you've got some aspects
there that are problematic and concerning. And then when you
(28:16):
answered it the other historical aspect, which is the business
of two years up in a row of twenty plus
percent gains, you generally don't get a third year and
the only time that happened when you had the third
year was during I believe it was the Clinton administration
and was a presidential election year, which this is not.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
So is the message be cautious this year? What's the
message that you.
Speaker 12 (28:38):
Are I would say the thing to do in addition
to you know, know yourself and plans and make sure
risk tolerance et cetera are correct, is to have a
more cautious approach at the beginning of the year. Make
sure that you're investing on a long term basis for
whatever your parameters are within your risk parameters, et cetera. Okay,
(28:59):
but also be where were the fact that you're you're
not a salmon, you know, swimming upstream. So it can
be a bit of an issue this year, and you know,
I'd be looking to maybe rotate to different areas where
you might be a little bit more cautious.
Speaker 5 (29:16):
So fundamental trade or historical trade.
Speaker 12 (29:19):
Historical trade is part of it. Then you have also
the market technical aspect of it from a momentum point
of view, which is positive long term, negative near term
and the positive long term contained negative in a short
period of time. So you've got that weighing against the market.
So it's not one thing. It's not one factor, but
(29:39):
the historical element, first year of a president's term, et cetera,
all of those things. When you put that all into
the mix and a stretch market valuation that we have right,
you know, it's hard to make. It's hard to make
a really compelling bullish case seting.
Speaker 6 (29:52):
One of the things we've been calling out in a
big way on this first trading day of twenty twenty
five is earnings coming up right a couple of weeks away,
and we get JP Morgan and then we'll be into
another earning season. If fundamentally those companies come out and
they do well top and bottom line, they're upbeat about
the outlook, does.
Speaker 5 (30:07):
That change things.
Speaker 12 (30:09):
The only way that would change is if you believe
that price earnings ratios really, really, really matter. And I'm
not one that thinks it does, because PE ratios are
they're like a rubber band. Okay, evaluation is like a
rubber band, and it can stretch and stretch and stretch.
John Maynard kaines markets can remain irrational longer than you
can remain solving. So there are you know, I look
(30:33):
at fundamentals as a reference point I look at fundamentals
as the narrative that ties into the strategy that you
want to employ. So I look at it. It's kind
of a bit of a different approach. I'm looking at
it from the fundamentals and what does it mean to
the narrative, because this is investing a beauty contest. It's
(30:53):
not what I think, it's not what anybody thinks. It's
what the market thinks. And if the market thinks based
on you know, certain indicators that you're looking at, and
valuation is not going to help you in this regard,
then you know, you'd have to say that it's it's concerning.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
So our stock's expensive right now?
Speaker 12 (31:10):
Oh yeah, I think by you know, pretty much most
measures see I face stuff. Yeah they are, you know,
pe ratio is a stretch.
Speaker 4 (31:18):
Should we care those?
Speaker 12 (31:19):
Uh well, if yes, you should care all right, because
ultimately earnings are going to matter and so and the
quality of earning is going to matter. That's another dynamic.
I mean, we talk about earnings. You mentioned, you know, Okay,
good earnings come up, but what about the quality of them?
And then you've got to be looking down the road.
You've got to be looking you know, six months nine
(31:40):
months down the road, and if you're a long term investor,
you basically kind of ignore a lot of this stuff
and find the ones that you might be most interested in. Like,
for example, if you believe that the energy demand is
going to be really strong, then if you have the
downmarket for a period of time, that presents a terrific
opportunity for you to position yourself in the areas that
you want to be.
Speaker 6 (32:00):
Back to the Trump administration, I mean, if we have
tax cuts, if we have I don't know, easier regulations.
I'm just thinking about things that could give kind of
some juice to the liquidity equation and then give some
more momentum to the markets. Is that expected or that
even that to what you're saying, If you cross it
with fundamentals or technicals, it still isn't going to matter.
Speaker 12 (32:20):
You know, when it comes down to Carol, it's no
one thing. It never is. We'd like it to condense
it down to like a pe ratio or things that
that's it, but it isn't. It's multiple things, and multiple
levels and many different things.
Speaker 6 (32:32):
Multiple things at this point are against any kind of
momentum continuing.
Speaker 5 (32:36):
That's that's kind.
Speaker 12 (32:37):
Of your mind.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
That's correct.
Speaker 12 (32:38):
When you when you add up the historical aspect, when
you take a look at stretched earnings, when you look
at the momentum grinding down market action, you know, price
over pe ratios, things of that sort, excuse me, price
over moving averages. That when you when you take all
of those things into consideration, you know you're you got
to lean more towards a cautionary approach to things that cash.
Speaker 5 (32:59):
I'm sorry, match us.
Speaker 12 (33:01):
Your podcast is not a bad place.
Speaker 5 (33:02):
Actually treasuries at this point, right.
Speaker 12 (33:06):
Treasure Well, yeah, treasuries, except for the fact that you know,
I know one individual and I recommended him that he
continued to do his laddering approach, you know, three months,
six months, nine months, a year or two, that kind
of thing, and scale it out there, all.
Speaker 5 (33:19):
Right, can leave it there. Happy New Year.
Speaker 6 (33:21):
Nice to hep you again.
Speaker 4 (33:22):
Great to see you.
Speaker 6 (33:23):
Finny catalanour chief market strategist over at Stuvest and Capital Management,
joinining us right here in our interactive Brokers studio.
Speaker 7 (33:29):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday
afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Business Week,
Insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's
most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news.
The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim
(00:23):
Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I want to bring in Bloomberg News Audo reporter Keith
Naughton for more on this and then some other Tesla
news that we learned a little earlier today that Tesla's
annual vehicle sales dropped for the first time in more
than a decade, to spite a year and push that
sent deliveries to a record in the fourth quarter. Tesla
shares selling off as a result. We're going to get
to that in just a minute, Keith, but I do
want to start with the news just moments ago that
(00:49):
we learned from officials in Las Vegas that members of
Tesla's staff are on their way to Las Vegas to
assist law enforcement agents with finding information from this cyber
truck that yesterday had an explosive device or explosive devices
in it. I'm curious what types of information they can
get from what happens inside of Tesla what happens outside
(01:12):
of Tesla, Because for people who aren't familiar with these vehicles,
these have quite a few cameras recording at all times
on the outside well for sure.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
So you know, modern vehicles, particularly Tesla's, are highly sophisticated.
They have a lot of devices that record what goes
on in the car, Cameras being one of them. And
so while they're not for the level of a black
box on a jet or something like that, it can
provide a lot of important information if you're doing an
investigation like this. You know, we have two incidents yesterday,
(01:44):
the one in Vegas with the Tesla cybertruck and then
the attack in New Orleans on Bourbon Street, and that
was with a Ford F one fifty lightning.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
I've been on the phone with Ford this morning, and they.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Are also cooperating with authorities to provide them any information.
And they can glean from that F one fifty lightning.
So the weight modern cars, particularly electric vehicles, so these
are both electric vehicles, both rented from turo B any way,
and so they can provide all sorts of interesting and
helpful data as this investigation goes on.
Speaker 5 (02:16):
I got to ask you, Keith.
Speaker 6 (02:18):
Okay, and again forgive us folks, because we're trying to
be very careful here and really just talk about facts
and stuff.
Speaker 5 (02:23):
But is it interesting that both were electric vehicles?
Speaker 4 (02:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Well, I mean one way to look at that, and
again I don't want to go too far into the
speculation exactly, but electric vehicles, in the case of the
New Orleans attack, they are powered by a battery that
is very heavy.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
That adds thousands of pounds of weight to the vehicle.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
So you know, if you're looking to maximize destructive properties,
more weight will do that.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Keith, what do you make of the Turo connection here?
I think a lot of folks might be familiar with
traditional places to rent a vehicle, but are now hearing
about Tururo for the first.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
Time, right and Turo, you know, it can be a
little bit like automotive Airbnb. Sometimes it's individuals who are
renting out their exotic cars.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Turrow has been known for exotics and for electric vehicles.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
We don't know, or I don't know the details of
how these two were rented and where they come from.
I know that in the case of Forward from my
conversations with them, they're trying to help with that, but
it is it is a rental traditionally that has rented
more exotic cars, different cars, electric vehicles, not your standard,
(03:33):
you know, Hurtznatus.
Speaker 6 (03:35):
All right, we're going to move along, and obviously we're
going to continue to monitor any headlines that might come
out on either situation in New Orleans or in Vegas.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
But Keith, we.
Speaker 6 (03:44):
Initially thought we were going to talk to you about
Tesla's sales numbers, which we'd given everybody a heads up
on New Year's Eve that we expected there to be
some disappointment. I am curious, though Tesla's shares are selling off,
our investor's right to be disappointed.
Speaker 5 (04:00):
Is it a big deal for Tesla?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
It is a big deal because it's the first decline
in annual sales in more than a decade. And to
put it in context, when that last drop happened between
two thousand and ten and twenty eleven, Tesla was selling
about twelve hundred vehicles a year back then. It's now
selling close to two million, So it's a completely different situation.
(04:23):
And you know, everyone, once in a while, the market
is reminded that, yes, Tesla is a car company, and
if they don't sell enough cars, they don't make enough money.
The stock has been on a tear, particularly since the election,
because everyone was excited about the political influence.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
That Elon Musk would have.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
It's been also rising since Elon Musk has focused so
much more on AI and the robotaxi they're developing. But
when it comes down to it, Tesla needs to sell
electric vehicles and they're having a harder time doing that.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Is Tesla having the same issues that other EV companies
are having competition from China less of an interest in
evs and more of an interest in hybrids, high ticket
prices that many Americans and people around the world can't
necessarily afford, especially when you compare it with those Chinese
evs and then cars from with the traditional internal combustion engines.
(05:16):
Is that what the issue is?
Speaker 3 (05:18):
Yeah, absolutely, Tesla is facing those same headwinds as the
rest of the industry. But Tesla has an additional headwind
and that is the rest of the industry. You know,
they basically had the EV market to themselves until a
few years ago, and particularly in this past year, we
now have I think seventy five evs on the US market,
So you have GM coming finally with their evs and
(05:40):
their lower price, where Tesla doesn't have much product to
play with.
Speaker 4 (05:45):
But Tesla really needs to get its volumes back up.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
Is this model y refresh known as Juniper that's coming
next year, that's supposed to be in the mid thirty
thousand range. Right now, Tesla's average prices are above forty thousand,
and they've come down a lot because Tesla's resorted to
the old fashioned, you know, marketing incentives that normal carmakers do,
(06:08):
like zero percent financing and free charging.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
So they've they've done.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
That and their prices have come down a bit, but
they're still a little high for mainstream buyers.
Speaker 6 (06:17):
I mean, is Tesla getting to the point, you know,
we often talk about a tech company that's, you know,
an upstart, you know, on a growth trajectory, kind of
owns its market and then it matures a little bit.
Is that kind of what's happening, Keith? I mean, can
we kind of put that label on Tesla? Are not necessarily.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Definitely from its you know, traditional EV selling business.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
It has matured at a very time, at the very
time that.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
As we said, the EV market is slowing, so you know,
it's just a harder sell with evs right now. The
growth rate of EV's last year was in the mid
seven percent.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
You know, the year before was forty seven percent.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So we're in a very cooling market for pure electric
vehicles and that's all Tesla sells. And test Tha's lineup
is really aging, so they desperately need new and refreshed
product to reinvigorate their sales.
Speaker 6 (07:07):
All right, going to leave it on that note. Keith Noughton,
thank you so much. Auto reporter O at Bloomberg News
joining us from Detroit.
Speaker 7 (07:11):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen
on Applecarplay and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 6 (07:25):
All right, let's get out to someone who's got to
make investment bets. And he recently wrote about the parallel
between the dot com bubble and today's AI driven euphoria.
He says, we are in the late stages of a
major financial euphoria episode. We welcome back Bill Smeed, cio
over at Smeed Capital Management. They've got approximately seven and
a half billion dollars in assets under management. Bill, joining
(07:45):
us on this Thursday. It is Thursday, it's a new year.
Joining us from Phoenix, Arizona. Bill, Good to have you
back with us. Happy new Year.
Speaker 5 (07:55):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (07:55):
Tell us about this parallel between the dot com bubble
and the AI. We've talked this actually a fair amount
here at Bloomberg. Does it burst then at some point?
And how do you tell or any indication of when
that happens.
Speaker 8 (08:10):
Well, I listened to your prior segment. This won't be
a black swan, that this will be an in your
face duck. In other words, it is absolutely inevitable. Here's
what I love about the current euphoria. All the other
euphorias front loaded the stock prices of the beneficiaries of.
Speaker 9 (08:32):
The new legitimate business development.
Speaker 8 (08:35):
So in twenty nine it was front loading the excitement
about radio and RCA was the Nvidia, And.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
Then in sixty nine to seventy it was landing on the.
Speaker 8 (08:44):
Moon in the semiconductor and ultimately peaked out with a
nifty to fifty, And then in ninety nine it was
the Internet was going.
Speaker 6 (08:52):
To change our life.
Speaker 10 (08:53):
Did they succeed?
Speaker 9 (08:55):
Did all those legitimate developments play out and.
Speaker 8 (08:58):
Get used dramatically more and completely changed the way Americans operated.
The answer is yes. And did people get crushed in
the stock market in all prior cases?
Speaker 9 (09:12):
And the answer is yes. So if you own the
momentum trades of.
Speaker 8 (09:18):
The last three or four years, whether it be a
year from now or a month from now or three
weeks ago, the pain that people are going to get
exhibited on them versus the trade off of an additional
year of glorious success like the last two years will
be It's a bad risk reward relationship. And it's right
(09:39):
in front of everyone's face. It's not a black swan,
it's not hidden anywhere. And your friend in London made
the right call. We've got fifteen different indicators, not just
the option trading. Virtually every measurement tool for measuring historical
stock market valuation is at the absolute ninety eight percentile
(10:02):
or higher right now?
Speaker 4 (10:04):
All right?
Speaker 6 (10:05):
So then if we agree with you, then what happens
like how much of a market decline, how much has
to be kind of taken off? What kind of froth
needs to be taken off in your view to make
it more normalized?
Speaker 8 (10:17):
Yeah, I think you go to seventy three seventy four,
And the problem is seventy three seventy four was a
fifty percent decline in the S and P over two years,
and then didn't come out of it until nineteen eighty two. Right,
(10:38):
the Dow used to be the primary benchmark at that time,
and the Dow kept peeking out at one thousand, including
in nineteen seventy two, and then we started from seven
to seventy five on the Dow at the bottom in
August of nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 4 (10:54):
But Bill had been we.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
Only have a couple of minutes.
Speaker 6 (10:57):
But I want to ask you, though, it's safe to
say that today's marketplace maybe not the same as seventy
or what was going on in the seventies. And maybe
I just think about the frequency with how information kind
of flies through the market and social media and the velocity,
and when things don't look right, they kind of get
taken down pretty quickly.
Speaker 8 (11:18):
Yeah, it's different this time, I think, is what you're asking.
Speaker 10 (11:22):
It is different.
Speaker 8 (11:23):
It's always different this time, it's always different.
Speaker 9 (11:27):
But the similarities is what kill you.
Speaker 8 (11:29):
So I happen to read a piece this last week
from twenty fourteen from Warren Buffett, and this is twenty fourteen,
he said, you know, the market spends most of its
time reasonably priced, and he calls that reasonableness. But in
twenty fourteen he said in his career five times it
(11:51):
lost its reasonableness, and that was in twenty fourteen.
Speaker 10 (11:56):
So I think when his partner Charlie Munger said this
is the big financially forty episode of his career because
of the totality of a few years ago, I think
Buffett is demonstrating through raising cash that he thinks this
market lacks reasonableness.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
So where the just we have thirty seconds left, where
the opportunities for this year.
Speaker 8 (12:19):
The opportunities are spelled E N E RGY.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
We've heard that from you before.
Speaker 8 (12:25):
Electricity forty percent of electricity is made with natural gas.
That I'm not a commodity trader, but that's what I'd
be all over on oil and gas stocks.
Speaker 9 (12:34):
The price of oil is not going to go down.
By the way, pertaining to your prior conversation, people that
live in China their body temperatures ninety eight point six.
It's the oldest civilization in the world, and they're very
intelligent people. The chance of them pulling themselves out of
This is one hundred percent and American exceptionalism is way
overcooked because we're just ninety eight point six and that's
(12:56):
all wherever going to be.
Speaker 5 (12:58):
All right, Gonna have to leave it on that now.
Thank you so much.
Speaker 6 (13:00):
We know we had a lot of breaking news and
we had to jump around a little bit, but Bill Smead,
we really appreciate getting some time with you. Bill Smead,
Chief Investment Officer. It's Meet Capital Management, coming to us
from Phoenix, Arizona.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from two to five ese during Listen
on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
This is not going to surprise anyone who has listened
to or watched our show in the past because we
talk about this a lot. But women founded startups get
only a fraction of the VC funding of male startups.
I mean we're talking single digits here. I mean depending
on by far so much, depending on which data you
look at via you know, Pitchbook or others, it's like
single digits. Yeah, but they made gains last year. Women
(13:47):
in non binary VC investors have gained a foothold in
the tech industry, five years faster than the advocacy group
all RAYS expected, but leaders say a national backlash diversity,
equality and inclusion initiatives threatens the progress that's been made.
So Carol, about eighteen percent of decision makers at USVC
firms are female. It's double from twenty eighteen when all
Rays was founded and set a goal of reaching that
(14:09):
number by twenty twenty eight that's according to the group's
in Your report that was published last year. So some progress,
some progress, some progress, some progress.
Speaker 6 (14:16):
Let's see what Jesse Draper has to say about that.
She's founding partner of Halogen Ventures. The VC firm has
invested in more than seventy five female founded tech startups,
including baby List, Flex, everly Well, and more. She joins
us on this Thursday from Los Angeles. Jesse, good to
be talking again with you. It does feel like, first
of all, that there is a backlash on all things
(14:37):
DEI how is that potentially going to impact the VC world,
which already when it comes to female founded firms, I mean, man,
they have to struggle to find funding.
Speaker 11 (14:50):
They do have to struggle to find funding. But you know,
the best companies will get funded. I think the most
important thing right now that we think about is just
getting capital into the hands of women, and that could
be a female and the founding team. Like at Hallajenventus
when we invest, there has to be a female in
the founding team. And we were still part of one
of the largest raises of twenty twenty four, which was
(15:13):
a one point nine billion dollar raise with a female
and the founding team. And it's called Metropolis. It's a
parking technology company. You know, there's no lack of incredible
deals being started by women. I think it's about looking
at the world a little differently, getting into new networks
and breaking out of like our traditional way of deploying capital. Also,
(15:38):
thank you for having me again, Carol and Tim.
Speaker 10 (15:40):
It's good.
Speaker 5 (15:41):
It's good to be You're welcome. You're welcome, you know, sire.
Speaker 6 (15:44):
I was just looking at Tim and I'm just saying, listen.
Part of the reason it's fun to do a show
man woman whatever, like some diversity, Like we do look
at things differently, Tim and I do think about what's
being lost in the VC world by now looking at
female founded firms who look at the world differently, and
maybe what's needed.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Well, Jesse, talk a little bit about networks, because this
is something you absolutely understand being in the space and
essentially growing up in the space. What are networks when
it comes to venture capital? Pull the curtain back a little.
Speaker 11 (16:14):
Bit, so I look at it as networks and tech ecosystems.
So when I think about networks, you know, I think
women lack those networks. Traditionally, men have one passed the
pocketbooks down from generation to generation, and we need to
like break the women in there. Right now is the
largest transference of generational wealth, and the majority of that
(16:35):
is actually going to be going to women. So we
need women investing and we need capital going to women,
which hopefully will inevitably happen. We are you know, I
think about networks, and you would start with, say Stanford,
where Silicon Valley is where I literally grew up. I've
lived in LA for twenty years, but you know, Stanford
started the first sort of technology ecosystem as we know it.
(16:59):
And these typically begin with a university, and so you
build that out because then great talent comes from the university,
great ideas come from the university, and ultimately great companies
spin out of that University. So, you know, you look
at the great tech ecosystems across the country. Those networks
are starting to broaden because we're now seeing many more
(17:22):
than just twelve technology cities across the country. We at
Halijn Ventures actually just announced that we were the first
out of state investment that Innovate Alabama made into a fund.
And so we've partnered with Innovate Alabama and we have
been going and researching and digging in and meeting with
hundreds of entrepreneurs in Alabama. And I have to say,
(17:45):
even I was surprised by I hadn't spent a ton
of time in Alabama. I don't know that a lot
of people in California have. I shouldn't generalize there, but
there are some amazing tech ecosystems there. There's world class university,
over fifty Fortune five hundred companies represented too are actually
based there, a lot of great aerospace ag tech, you know,
(18:07):
And I'm blown away by the incredible talent in Alabama.
And I think we just need to start looking at
new tech ecosystems, starting with new universities in different locations.
There's a lot going on in the South, and we're
really trying to capitalize on that. I think also as
a strategy, we're really thinking how do we get out
(18:29):
of those typical networks where people are only investing in
the Stanfords and the Harvards of the world, which you know,
we have Stanfords and Harvard's in our portfolio as well,
but I think it's important to create a well diversified portfolio.
And if you look at ecosystems around the world, even
in like Sub Saharan Africa, they often give capital to
the women to build the community and build the ecosystem
(18:53):
and build the wealth for families.
Speaker 6 (18:55):
Right, go back to I'm just Mohammed yunus, right the problem, No,
you think about my micro you know, investing micro lending
in particular, it was to the woman because she would
put the money to work, and sometimes it was making
baskets or doing something that seems so basic, but it
created income for that family, and she paid back the
loan and it created a better life for that family.
(19:16):
I want to go back though, to what you're saying
about working with Alabama and some other universities. It reminds
me of Steve Case, you know, the AOL co founder,
And yeah, exactly, like yeah, and the future of technology
being outside Silicon Valley. Talk to us a little bit
about your portfolio and what you're you know, in a
world where we spend so much time talking about artificial
(19:38):
intelligence and generative AI and super high tech things going
on and autonomous driving and robots, Like, what is it
that you know where you are putting your VC money
at this point?
Speaker 11 (19:50):
Yeah, thank you for asking that.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
You know, So we are.
Speaker 11 (19:53):
We have over seventy five companies now and five of
those are current unicorns. We're still young in the space,
but we're doing fantastic. I'm really proud of our portfolio
and we're excited about investing in Alabama because Alabama is
actually unfortunately listed as fiftieth in quite a few things,
(20:14):
education among them, but most pertinent too Halogen. It is
ranked fiftieth for female founders, and so we really wanted
to make change there and innovate. Alabama was excited about
our thesis. Our current thesis is around future of family,
how do you support the family at work, at home,
(20:34):
the physical health of the family, and the financial health
of the family. And the reason we invested in that
is it's actually a research based thesis that we created
because we looked at our past two portfolios and realized
about a dozen of our companies were in the childcare
and future of family space, which is a seven point
five trillion dollar opportunity. And these are companies like Binti
(20:56):
Solving Adoption now in four hundred social services agencies across
the country upwards, which has sixty six thousand in home
vetted childcare locations for the zero to six year old.
This is the most affordable option for childcare below the
age of six in the United States, which is a
place we've completely forgotten about children, and also the most
(21:18):
important to invest in because that's where neglect happens and
all these terrible things. So we're investing and this is
that's the largest actually network of child care facilities in
the country. We're also in baby List, a billion dollar
baby registry company that will likely go public in the
next couple of years.
Speaker 5 (21:35):
I'm not sharing anything.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Jesse, I'm wondering how you disrupt the childcare industry. As
a parent of young kids, and we're constantly struggling to
find childcare. It's incredibly expensive here in New York City
and around the country now affordable, totally unffordable. How do
you how do you just that's the venture capital approach
to childcare. How do you solve this?
Speaker 5 (21:54):
How do you make it cheaper and more accessible?
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Right, this doesn't seem like.
Speaker 11 (21:57):
Something that's scalable exactly, so you make much more Like
you're saying, we are very focused on affordable childcare, on
healthcare for families, on financial management tools, which was sort
of an interesting piece of our data that we found
that families were looking for, like how do we manage
our money? So we're investors in Sally Quachec's company, Elves,
the first financial management platform to take child care into account.
(22:21):
But Upwards, which I was mentioning, they're actually solving that
problem of unaffordable childcare because ninety nine percent of society
can't afford a you know, private preschool or preschool just
in general, and Upwards is finding these locations, vetting them
and now has sixty six thousand, many in Alabama, all
(22:41):
across the country, and they have corporate benefits programs, they
have they signed an a figure deal with the governments
to subsidize costs for those living below the poverty line.
And so we're really trying to solve those issues in
society that I think people have forgotten about you know,
we're in this company, Binti, And really it was like
(23:04):
people are still to day matching children with homes, both
foster and adoptive by hand. The founder was meeting with
these these families and then meeting with these social service
agents who'd have stacks of papers and say, here's my
family cases. You know, here's the kids looking for families,
and it's completely inefficient. So they created some great technology.
(23:27):
They now match the families, find the families, build the families,
and they're just listening to what these families need and
they're doing incredibly well. So there's a huge opportunity and
I know we're also making an impact, but you know,
I am looking to obviously capitalize on this opportunity while
making an impact. And I think that's what people think. Oh,
(23:48):
investing in women is charity. Investing in childcare. People were
telling me wasn't a big enough opportunity even though it
affects so much of society, right, And I you know,
I said, okay, well I'll take that as a little
challenge and we'll show you how massive this opportunity is.
And it's a seven point five trillion dollar opportunity.
Speaker 6 (24:09):
Jesse, just to really recap. Just got to be quick though,
please twenty seconds, twenty five seconds. The incoming administration, new administration,
is that going to impact your world? Are you anticipating
that just quickly?
Speaker 11 (24:20):
I think it is already impacting my world. You know,
they're doing away with a lot of DEI opportunities for companies.
I think I just really would encourage the business ecosystem,
technology ecosystem to invest your dollars, make sure that they
(24:40):
are supporting women and diversity in general at the company stages,
especially at the earliest stages.
Speaker 5 (24:47):
It is affecting us.
Speaker 11 (24:48):
So make sure we're breaking out of those traditional dude networks.
And I love dudes just.
Speaker 5 (24:53):
Like everybody else.
Speaker 11 (24:54):
Little boys that just break out of those networks. Make
sure you're pulling a woman in the boardroom.
Speaker 6 (25:00):
I'm totally a good, totally gah singing listen, Happy New York.
Good to check in with you. Of course, that is
Jesse Draper of Halogen Ventures.
Speaker 5 (25:07):
I'm Rob macle I'll bet you let me drive.
Speaker 7 (25:11):
Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a twenty He's
going to jug.
Speaker 5 (25:15):
Any please, I'll do the riding gravels. Let's wait I
want to drive.
Speaker 7 (25:20):
It's a good question time. This is the drive to
the clothes now plunks for mefic well drin on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 6 (25:33):
All right, TikTok, everybody, Just about eighteen minutes to go
until we wrap up the first training day of twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 5 (25:38):
Definitely off our best levels of the session.
Speaker 6 (25:39):
What felt like a little bit of maybe a rally
a different trade based on the last four days of
twenty twenty four has kind of run out of steam here, Tim.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Yeah, it has taken a look at the major equity indices.
We did see hire to start the day. We're off
our worst levels of the session. Still done three tens
of one percent pretty much across the board.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
All right, let's see what our drive to the closed
guest has to say back with us.
Speaker 5 (26:00):
It's been a while.
Speaker 6 (26:01):
Vince Kalano Chief markeut strigis over at Stuyvesant Capital Management,
joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.
Speaker 5 (26:08):
Happy New Year. How are you.
Speaker 12 (26:09):
I'm well, I'm well. Happy to get to both of you.
Thank you, Yeah, thank you.
Speaker 6 (26:13):
It's good to have you here. I mean we have
talked with you over the years. Different market cycles. How
are you thinking about twenty twenty five and what will
be really kind of the big catalysts of the year.
Is it, as we talked earlier with our own Sam
Potter and Shnelli Bossik, is it all about the upcoming
new Trump administration and what kind of policies we get.
Speaker 12 (26:33):
Well, if you listen to Jason Furman, which I reached
out to, or Ian Brimmer, who I reached out to also,
they would say, yeah, it would be economics, the Trump
administration taris, what does it mean, what are the consequences,
et cetera. Now, if you, on the other hand, talk
to somewhat of that I call nostril Domis because he
tries to sniff out the future as opposed to the
(26:55):
Nostradamis and not being Sam Stowell, he will tell you
that right now today is not a particularly positive sign
from a market historical perspective.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
Why is today not a positive sign?
Speaker 12 (27:08):
Because when you make a lower low in January lower
than you did at the low point in December, then
many more times than not, the year ahead turns out
to be a negative year.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Are you speaking like a market technician or like a CFA.
Speaker 12 (27:23):
No, No, not to c if a time.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Okay, I'm just wondering.
Speaker 5 (27:28):
First day. It's only the first day of January. I'm sorry,
it's only the first day of January.
Speaker 12 (27:32):
That's right. But if you go strictly by what he says,
historical information says that when you make a lower low
in the first quarter, and it just happens to be
that today's the first day of the first quarter, well
then you end up in a period where the probabilities are.
Speaker 5 (27:48):
So it doesn't matter when it happens.
Speaker 6 (27:49):
Remember, even if we get a rally in the next
two or three weeks, your point is that we made
this low today.
Speaker 12 (27:54):
You made the lower low today, and the probabilities are
that you're going to have a down year for the year,
or certainly if you an up year, the year is
going to be modest. So that's the historical information. Now,
when you add to that certain other market technical issues
that you referenced him, then yeah, you've got some aspects
there that are problematic and concerning. And then when you
(28:16):
answered it the other historical aspect, which is the business
of two years up in a row of twenty plus
percent gains, you generally don't get a third year and
the only time that happened when you had the third
year was during I believe it was the Clinton administration
and was a presidential election year, which this is not.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
So is the message be cautious this year? What's the
message that you.
Speaker 12 (28:38):
Are I would say the thing to do in addition
to you know, know yourself and plans and make sure
risk tolerance et cetera are correct, is to have a
more cautious approach at the beginning of the year. Make
sure that you're investing on a long term basis for
whatever your parameters are within your risk parameters, et cetera. Okay,
(28:59):
but also be where were the fact that you're you're
not a salmon, you know, swimming upstream. So it can
be a bit of an issue this year, and you know,
I'd be looking to maybe rotate to different areas where
you might be a little bit more cautious.
Speaker 5 (29:16):
So fundamental trade or historical trade.
Speaker 12 (29:19):
Historical trade is part of it. Then you have also
the market technical aspect of it from a momentum point
of view, which is positive long term, negative near term
and the positive long term contained negative in a short
period of time. So you've got that weighing against the market.
So it's not one thing. It's not one factor, but
(29:39):
the historical element, first year of a president's term, et cetera,
all of those things. When you put that all into
the mix and a stretch market valuation that we have right,
you know, it's hard to make. It's hard to make
a really compelling bullish case seting.
Speaker 6 (29:52):
One of the things we've been calling out in a
big way on this first trading day of twenty twenty
five is earnings coming up right a couple of weeks away,
and we get JP Morgan and then we'll be into
another earning season. If fundamentally those companies come out and
they do well top and bottom line, they're upbeat about
the outlook, does.
Speaker 5 (30:07):
That change things.
Speaker 12 (30:09):
The only way that would change is if you believe
that price earnings ratios really, really, really matter. And I'm
not one that thinks it does, because PE ratios are
they're like a rubber band. Okay, evaluation is like a
rubber band, and it can stretch and stretch and stretch.
John Maynard kaines markets can remain irrational longer than you
can remain solving. So there are you know, I look
(30:33):
at fundamentals as a reference point I look at fundamentals
as the narrative that ties into the strategy that you
want to employ. So I look at it. It's kind
of a bit of a different approach. I'm looking at
it from the fundamentals and what does it mean to
the narrative, because this is investing a beauty contest. It's
(30:53):
not what I think, it's not what anybody thinks. It's
what the market thinks. And if the market thinks based
on you know, certain indicators that you're looking at, and
valuation is not going to help you in this regard,
then you know, you'd have to say that it's it's concerning.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
So our stock's expensive right now?
Speaker 12 (31:10):
Oh yeah, I think by you know, pretty much most
measures see I face stuff. Yeah they are, you know,
pe ratio is a stretch.
Speaker 4 (31:18):
Should we care those?
Speaker 12 (31:19):
Uh well, if yes, you should care all right, because
ultimately earnings are going to matter and so and the
quality of earning is going to matter. That's another dynamic.
I mean, we talk about earnings. You mentioned, you know, Okay,
good earnings come up, but what about the quality of them?
And then you've got to be looking down the road.
You've got to be looking you know, six months nine
(31:40):
months down the road, and if you're a long term investor,
you basically kind of ignore a lot of this stuff
and find the ones that you might be most interested in. Like,
for example, if you believe that the energy demand is
going to be really strong, then if you have the
downmarket for a period of time, that presents a terrific
opportunity for you to position yourself in the areas that
you want to be.
Speaker 6 (32:00):
Back to the Trump administration, I mean, if we have
tax cuts, if we have I don't know, easier regulations.
I'm just thinking about things that could give kind of
some juice to the liquidity equation and then give some
more momentum to the markets. Is that expected or that
even that to what you're saying, If you cross it
with fundamentals or technicals, it still isn't going to matter.
Speaker 12 (32:20):
You know, when it comes down to Carol, it's no
one thing. It never is. We'd like it to condense
it down to like a pe ratio or things that
that's it, but it isn't. It's multiple things, and multiple
levels and many different things.
Speaker 6 (32:32):
Multiple things at this point are against any kind of
momentum continuing.
Speaker 5 (32:36):
That's that's kind.
Speaker 12 (32:37):
Of your mind.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
That's correct.
Speaker 12 (32:38):
When you when you add up the historical aspect, when
you take a look at stretched earnings, when you look
at the momentum grinding down market action, you know, price
over pe ratios, things of that sort, excuse me, price
over moving averages. That when you when you take all
of those things into consideration, you know you're you got
to lean more towards a cautionary approach to things that cash.
Speaker 5 (32:59):
I'm sorry, match us.
Speaker 12 (33:01):
Your podcast is not a bad place.
Speaker 5 (33:02):
Actually treasuries at this point, right.
Speaker 12 (33:06):
Treasure Well, yeah, treasuries, except for the fact that you know,
I know one individual and I recommended him that he
continued to do his laddering approach, you know, three months,
six months, nine months, a year or two, that kind
of thing, and scale it out there, all.
Speaker 5 (33:19):
Right, can leave it there. Happy New Year.
Speaker 6 (33:21):
Nice to hep you again.
Speaker 4 (33:22):
Great to see you.
Speaker 6 (33:23):
Finny catalanour chief market strategist over at Stuvest and Capital Management,
joinining us right here in our interactive Brokers studio.
Speaker 7 (33:29):
This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on bloomberg dot com,
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