September 26, 2025 • 37 mins
Watch Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Hosts: Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu
On this podcast:
- Jennifer Rie, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst, discusses Live Nation being hit with an FTC ticket suit.
- Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence Semiconductor Analyst, recaps Micron earnings.
- Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research for Global Industries and Senior Pharmaceuticals Analyst, discusses “Pfizer’ planning to buy Metsera for $4.9 billion.
- Ann Hunter, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity Analyst, Biopharmaceuticals, discusses the U.S warning against Tylenol use.
- Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, discusses his story “Oura Ring Maker to Become $11 Billion Company With Latest Raise.”
- John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Telecom Analyst, discusses T-Mobile’s succession plan.
- Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst on US Media, discusses Jimmy Kimmel returning to late night television.
- Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Restaurant and Foodservice Analyst, discusses Starbucks closing stores.
Bloomberg Intelligence, the research arm of Bloomberg L.P., has more than 400 professionals who provide in-depth analysis on more than 2,000 companies and 135 industries while considering strategic, equity and credit perspectives. BI also provides interactive data from over 500 independent contributors. It is available exclusively for Bloomberg Terminal subscribers.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio, Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence
with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
How do you think the FED is looking at tariffs?
The uncertainty of terriffs.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
Let's take a look at the sectors and how they performed.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
A lot of investors getting whipsaled every day by news.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Events, breaking market headlines, and corporate news from across the globe.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Could we see a market disruption of market event?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
So people just too exuberant out there?
Speaker 3 (00:31):
You see some so called low quality stocks driving this
short term rally.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube,
and Bloomberg Originals.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big
business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets. Each
and every week, we provide in depth research and data
on some of the two thousand companies and one hundred
and thirty industries our animalts cover worldwide. Today, we'll look
at why the Trump administration is warning about tiele on
all use during pregnancy. Plus we'll look at what's in
store for the telecommunications company T Mobile after naming a
(01:05):
new CEO. But first we begin in the anti trust Space.
We recently heard that the US Federal Trade Commission and
seven states have sued Live Nation Entertainment and its ticket
Master subsidiary. It's for failing to prevent the use of
automated ticketing bots and large scale resale operations. From more
co hosts, Scarlettfield and I were joined by Jennifer Ree,
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior litigation analyst. We first asked for Jens
(01:28):
first impressions on the latest news.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
Well, I think, first of all, not too much of
a surprise, because they did recently sue a much smaller
entity over the same law, which is called the Better
Ticketing Online Sales Act or the Bots Act, and Live
Nation was mentioned an awful lot in that lawsuit, so
it sort of led to the conclusion that there might
be another suit brought. And President Trump did order the
Federal Trade Commission to better enforce this act back in
(01:53):
an executive order in March, and they have a report
due to the President on September twenty seventh, so saying
what if they done to better enforce the act. So
I think it's not a surprise that a big lawsuit
came down before that report is due.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
You know, you talk you talk to a lot of
nation people, and I've known them for a long time.
I think they want to clean this stuff up. They
want to take out the middleman, the scalper. They want
to simplify the fees because they know the feedback is
terrible from their customers. But this is still a thing,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
I mean yeah, no, right, Well, first of all, antitrust
cases tend to be backward looking, so what they may
be taking efforts today, but we're looking at what they've
been doing since twenty eighteen. Essentially. The other thing is
they do say that, and they have said that to
the Department of Justice and to Congress as well. But
if you look at what's been alleged in this lawsuit,
they're an awful lot of statements and documents cited to
(02:42):
when their internal business communications going on. That suggests that
they've kind of turned a blind eye to the broker
activity because they profit from the resale market of those
tickets as well. How did they do that well, because
they sell the primary ticket and take fees, and then
the brokers buy in bulk and then they put it
they resell on Ticketmaster's resale arm. Ticketmaster charges just to
(03:03):
list it and then they take another fee when the
ticket's actually sold, So they're basically double dipping on the
same ticket.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
How is this different?
Speaker 3 (03:11):
I know that's not good. How is this different from
what ticket resellers, vivid Seats or access or any of
those other companies that consumers have the option of using,
how they operate and how they collect fees.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
So this is about whether they knowingly resell these tickets. Now,
a reseller could sell a ticket that's been bought improperly
by a bot but not know it. They could implement
security measures, not understand the extent to which the bots
in the scalpers have been able to technically go around
those security measures, and then, you know, in an honestly
attempt to provide a place to resell tickets, resell the tickets.
(03:45):
In this case, what the FTC is saying is that
Ticketmaster knowingly did this, and they didn't step in the way,
They didn't implement any of the rules that they have
internally to.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Let it happen.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
They let it happen. So it remains to be seen
whether some of the other resellers have that same kind
of evidence internally. It may be that they're doing what
they can to prevent the conduct and in that case
it may not violate the Bots Act.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
How about the Department of Justice, what are they doing
with this company? I mean, is there talk of breaking
up Live Nation from the Ticketmaster?
Speaker 4 (04:13):
The Department of Justice has been going after this company
for years, ever since Live Nation acquired Ticketmaster, which yes, Paul,
I know you worked on that deal, right, and that
was done with the consent order, meaning Live Nation promised
to behave a certain way if they were allowed to
buy the company, and essentially it's been alleged and investigated
and found twice now that they violated that. So now
(04:37):
the Department of Justice has just sued them and said,
you're engaging in all kinds of anti competitive activity by
virtue of your strong position kind of in every aspect
of the live concert and live event industry. And you
know the only answer at this point is to force
you to sell Ticketmaster because when we impose behavioral conditions,
you just ignore it.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
How do you see this resolving. Is this going to
be something where they battle it out to the very
end and get a verdict or are they going to
try to settle.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
Well, I think two different answers depending on the lawsuit
I think on the FTC lawsuit over the Bots Act
probably ends in a settlement because the penalties are astronomical,
you know, over fifty three thousand dollars per violation, and
we're talking about probably five million violations a year, accounting
and counting right starting in twenty eighteen. So that probably
ends in a settlement for a fraction of what ultimately
(05:27):
could be fined the Department of Justice suit. I suspect
Live Nation will fight and fight for many years. That
goes to trial in front of a jury in March.
So we're actually probably going to have a verdict in
the first quarter unless they managed to finacle a settlement,
which I understand they're trying hard right now to settle
with the Trump administration. But if they don't, it goes
to trial in March. We'll have a jury verdict. I
(05:48):
think it'll be hard to find a jury that's not
going to be inclined to rule against Live Nation if
they've ever tried to buy a ticket.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
For an event like how many finds one who's completely
impractive about this and has no real firsthand experience exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Now, I look like as old stock analysts I am,
I look at the stock, it's a twenty six percent
yeah day. Is that the market telling me we've got
an administration in office right now that might be open
to a deal. Is that kind of what it's saying.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
I think so. I think there are those out there
that think Live Nation may be able to get some
sort of a deal. You know, we know they're making
a lot of efforts to do so in doing things
the way seem to be have been successful for others
with this administration, and I do think that's the sentiment.
But and also it's a long way away from something happening.
Even if they lose this jury trial in March, then
(06:34):
the judge has to decide on a remedy, then they appeal,
that remedy probably gets stayed pending the appeal, So we're
really not looking at an impact for a couple more years.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
In the meantime, you have artists trying to you know,
limit how they sell their tickets as well, and that
just creates confusion for consumers too, you know, like they'll
release a you know, slate of tickets and then hold
off and then release another slate of tickets, and if
you want to transfer tickets to someone it's very different
goal on the Ticketmaster app because they want to make
sure that you're an actual person on the bot. I mean,
(07:04):
it just gets difficult for people who just want to
go see.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
A show, right, And that's why this is a politically
popular cause. You know, this is the one thing that
leads me to think maybe the DJ won't settle with
Live Nation despite the efforts, because this is really you know,
the Taylor Swift fiasco brought it all to the forefront
more than ever. Springsteen whor's Springsteen Right. There have been
other issues since then, and it is politically popular. See
(07:28):
what happens there.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
The only way you know, musical folks can make money
is touring, right.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
And don't get Spotify doesn't pay you anything.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
No, I mean, it's it, that's why you got. I mean,
I saw Clapton, Eric Clapton.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
And the dude's eighty was sitting the entire time, no.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
No standing most of the time. Sounded great. You know,
I don't know, but I mean, yeah, you know, there's
either selling their catalogs for hundreds of millions of dollars, right,
and they're still touring.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
And merch merch tons and tons, and that's the problem
with these astronomical ticket prices that doesn't go back to
the artist, you know, it's just going to the middle
man or going to Live Nation or Ticketmaster, whoever the
reseller is.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Our thanks to Jennifer Ree, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst,
we move next to news from the memory chip maker Micron.
This week, shares of the company fell after its forecast
for the first quarter failed to impress investors, and this
comes despite revenue and profit expectations being higher than estimated.
In the backdrop, Micron stock has nearly doubled this year,
rising at a faster pace than most of its chip piers,
(08:28):
reflecting AI fueled optimism for more. Co host Scarlettfield w
Anden I were joined by Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence Semiconductor analyst.
We first asked Jake why investors were disappointed with Micron.
Speaker 5 (08:39):
I think it has a lot to do with just
very high expectations coming into the quarter. But overall, look,
I mean, the fundamentals of the business remained very strong.
I think the commentary on the call for management was
very positive, and so I think we're going to continue
to see an up cycle and memory at least for
the near term.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So what is the call here, what's the street looking
for for this name? Again, A stocks just as you mentioned,
ripped this year up ninety four percent year today. What's
the call here?
Speaker 5 (09:07):
Yeah, No, I mean, I think investors are really looking
at high bandwidth memory, They're looking at AI, They're looking
at data center related revenue. In the last fiscal year,
data center related revenue was fifty to six percent of sales.
So as demand continues for that, we also have to
keep in mind that, you know, there's traditional products as
(09:29):
well that are an important part of the business, that
includes smartphones and PCs. Investors really want to see continued
pricing strength. And as demand continues to grow for high
bandwidth memory, which is very important for AI, and as
capacity for that shifts over to high bandwith memory, it
can further constrains the supply because it has lower yields,
(09:51):
it has larger die sizes, so there's only so much
capacity industry and it's shifting over in favor of AI,
and that's just constraining supply for traditional products. Which given
the supply and demand, the importance of supplying demand balancing
the industry, it would suggest that as long as demand
for AI continues to grow, we'll see further pricing increases.
Speaker 3 (10:12):
So that's a lot of conditions. I mean, you talk
about memory chips, which Micron is the biggest US maker of.
We know that this business is kind of famous or
infamous really for merging between booms and busts, and that
results in these price wings to compensate for the previous
you know, plethora of chips or dearth of chips. How
(10:33):
does the AI revolution change this dynamic?
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (10:37):
No, And as I said before, really I want to
put emphasis on the fact that high bandwidth memory demand
constrain the supply for other products, specifically with DRAM. But
DRAM now accounts for about eighty percent of sales for
the company, so it's vastly more important than what we're
seeing in NAND. But the other twenty percent of sales
in NAND, we're also seeing strength for enterprise solid state drives,
(10:58):
which are also important for AI. So yeah, look, I
mean I think historically we've seen cycles up cycles tend
to last somewhere between seven to ten quarters, but we're
now extending beyond that. I mean, we're looking at, based
on the guidance, at least twelve quarters and then based
on the potential for further increases in pricing, it could
extend all the way through the next fiscal yeur at
(11:20):
a minimum. So yeah, I mean, really it's just kind
of an almost unprecedented situation, or at least not something that
we've seen in a very long time. And it really
just comes from structural tailments from AI, both on demand,
which is improving pricing via different products like high manWith memory,
but also just because like I said before, it's just
(11:40):
constraining overall supply, and that's not just unique to Micron,
that's true for both Skee Heinex and Samsung as well,
and the three of them account for the vast majority
of DRAM demand in the industry in nand as well.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Yeah, Drake, that's kind kind of where I wanted to
go the competitive landscape here. It feels like there's again
you mentioned kind of three names there. Is that really
kind of what's driving? Are those three companies driving this business?
Speaker 6 (12:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (12:04):
Yeah, yeah, so eske Heinez has really had the lead
in high bandwidth memory, Micron has become sort of a
very fast follower, and now there's reports that Samsung will
be supplying into Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra platform, which might pave
the way into Rubin for them as well. So I mean,
I think this three company dynamic that we'd seen for
a very long time. Obviously you've had some Chinese competitors
(12:27):
come on, but this three company dynamic that we saw
in traditional DRAM seems to be now shaping up again
for high bandwidth memory. So I think those past dynamics
that we've seen are going to be the dynamics going
forward again.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Our thanks to Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductor analyst, coming
up a look at how US drug Makropfiser is trying
to carve its share of the BCD DRUB market. You're
listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth
research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred
and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence VI A B.
I go on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney and this
(13:03):
is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
We move now to the news in a pharmaceutical space.
This week, the US drugmaker Pfizer said it will pay
four point nine billion dollars for the obesity startup met Sarah,
it's a bid to catch up the rival drugmakers after
failing to compete with its own weight loss medications From
work co hosts Scarlett Foe when I were joined by
Sam Fazzelli, Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research for Global Industries
and senior pharmaceuticals analysts. We first asked Sam to give
(13:37):
us some context on why this deal is important.
Speaker 7 (13:40):
Obesity is one of the key causes of a whole
variety of diseases, cardiovascular, cancer, mental health. So if we
can treat it, if we can prevent it, if we
can reduce it, it's brilliant for the entirety of society.
Here there is a deal where Fizer thinks they've got
something that's going to be able to give them a
(14:02):
chance at playing in this very important area and very
massive market. Right. So the drugs are interesting, they're relatively
early stage. We're looking to see with some new data
coming up, whether some of the promise that we've seen
earlier for these drugs that the company has, which the
latest stage one is still in phase two they need
to start the phase three in twenty twenty six, whether
(14:24):
they are as competitive as they looked in the earlier trials.
There were some questions on efficacy less so than side
effect profile. So we'll have to wait and see how
that pans out.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Sam, can you get into the science a little bit
and maybe you know, keep it basic for folks like
Paul and me, because Metzara is described as the next
generation hopeful in obesities. They use these long acting analogs
versus GLP one and I'm wondering for people who might
be holding out for matsera's treatment what that means versus
the currently available zip bound or we go vi.
Speaker 7 (14:57):
Yeah. Yeah, So the latest stage drug is very similar
to we go v and similar to zepetite or zip bound,
and the Amlin drug is a little bit early stay
earlier stage. There are companies we are more advanced drugs
in that world, but they all kind of feed into
the same pathway, which is the pathway that talks between
(15:21):
your food intake and your society centers in your brain
and your insulin centers in your pancreas it tries to
balance of eaten enough, let's stop eating now and let's
release some insulin make it more sensitive so that we
can deal with the onslaughter sugar that comes into our blood.
That's where they are, is that's central to that space.
(15:43):
There's cells in the gut that release glucle like JLP ones,
grouking like peptize the cells in other parts of the
body who are responding to it. So that's where these
things sit, and amlin is just one of those agents
in the middle of it.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
Say, I'm just kind of stepping back.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Is GLP one drugs in general, there's a certain level
of efficacy today, there's a certain level of say, side effects,
whether it's large or something else today. Is there a
room for improvement on both efficacy and side effects going
forward with these drugs?
Speaker 7 (16:14):
Yeah, I mean with it's the balance that's the most important.
With efficacy, I think we're pretty much there. I mean,
you know, there are folks that we know that go
on a drug for a week or two and they
lose four or five kilograms. That's fine. You don't want
to lose much faster than that, because I don't think
it's particularly healthy if you lose weight at a much
higher speed. And also you don't want to get much
lighter than a aty kilo or ninety kilo or seventy five
(16:36):
kilograms depending on your size. So the key is how
do you get there. If you get there by having
lots of side effects, then your probability of staying on
the drug is lower, but we want you to stay
on the drug. So it's a very very tight balance.
And then of course you have to figure out what
am I happy taking a weekly injection, which I think
a lot of people are not. Don't have a problem
with it, But what if Mitcera is right and push
(16:58):
it to once monthly, if some of the other competitent
is coming along with once every three months. Now, those
are things that we have to wait and see how
the data shows in terms of that balance of just
referred to.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Our thanks to Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research
for Global Industries and senior pharmaceuticals analysts. Staying in the
pharmaceutical space. This week, the Trump administration linked thiland on
to autism and urge pregnant women to avoid the common
pain medication, and this comes despite the lack of widely
accepted scientific evidence supporting the risk. For more co host
Scarlett Field and I were joined by a Hunter Bloomberg
(17:32):
Intelligence senior equity analysts for biopharmaceuticals. You first asked Ann
about the science behind the latest news.
Speaker 8 (17:38):
There are a lot of studies on it. It's certainly
driven by an increase in finding a solution for the
increased rates of ADHD and autism. I think it's really
important here to qualify or quantify what we're talking about
with frequent Thailand all use, and most of the studies
are looking at measured as more than twenty eight days
over the course of your pregnant see, so that is
(18:01):
a lot of tile and all use. We're not talking
about you have a high fever and you take it
for a day or two. This is this is kind
of more long term use. There is a correlation between
tile and all use and these disorders and children, and
I'll probably lose listeners if I go too deeply. But
correlation is not causation. Those are two separate things. And
(18:23):
while there's a lot of literature out there, a lot
of clinical studies, I would argue that the best ones
look at sibling analysis, so they compare a mother who
had frequent use during one pregnancy and not the next,
and that's the best way to kind of look at this.
And in those studies there was no findings of increased risks,
(18:43):
and there have been several There was a two and
a half million dollars a two and a half million
children study in Sweden, as well as a more recent
one out of Japan. Unfortunately, randomized trials are are difficult
to do, there's just too many variables. But the sibling
analysis is probably the best we have.
Speaker 3 (19:01):
So And when I think about the companies that are affected,
certainly ken View, which owns the Talnyl brand. Tailanol's generic
name is a seed of menaphin, and there are many
other companies that make a seed of menaphin as well.
Are we seeing them impacted in any way?
Speaker 7 (19:14):
You know?
Speaker 8 (19:15):
This is even for ken View, this is maybe a
high single digit portion of sales, and that's thailenol overall,
So you assume that the pregnant population is a much
smaller percentage of those sales. And I'd argue even you know,
before all of this, a lot of physicians, certainly mine
when I was pregnant, recommended only taking tilenol when you
have one of those you know, high fevers, So I
(19:37):
wouldn't expect it to truly be a material impact to
any of these companies.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Is there anything else out there that is at risk here?
I mean from just the FDA, I mean your coverage here,
because I know there's a lot of uncertainty about which
drugs are you know, kind of favored by this administration,
which ones aren't. Is that Are you seeing that in
your coverage of your companies?
Speaker 8 (19:58):
Well, for pregnancy in particular, I'd say, are there are
no favorite drugs? You know, you certainly were never suggested
to take aspirin and Tylenall was one of the few
things that was considered okay. But overall, you know, anytime
you get a lot of media attention on any drug
from politics or anything else, it's typically not a great
(20:18):
thing for the companies. But I think it does tend
to even out as it passes.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
You are our senior equity analyst for biopharmaceuticals. When the
Secretary of Health, Robert F. Kennedy Junior, speaks, does he
tend to move companies in your universe?
Speaker 8 (20:33):
I would argue, yes, for better or for worse, I'd
say they definitely move, but I would say that they
go back to a steady state.
Speaker 7 (20:40):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
So it's an immediate knee jerk reaction and then things
calm down exactly.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Our thanks to Ann Hunter, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior equity analyst
for Biopharmaceuticals. We move next to some news in the
luxury space. This week we heard that The Finished Company,
or A Health, is raising eight hundred and seventy five
million dollars in a new Series E financing round, and
it's now closing in on a roughly eleven billion dollar valuation.
That's after selling about three million rings over the past year.
(21:07):
For more, co host Scarlett fil When I were joined
by Mark German, Bloomberg News Managing editor for Global Consumer Tech,
we first asked Mark for more background on the Aura
ring maker.
Speaker 9 (21:17):
They want to scale production, they want to scale R
and D, they want to move into new regions, they
want to get into new retail stores, they want to
add new software features, so they're looking to grow quickly.
This nearly eleven billion dollar valuation. This is a pretty
specific hardware company. They really make one thing, and if
you look at their market cap now after that raise,
(21:41):
you compare it to other companies that are known for
really one type of hardware product. Peloton, Eye, Robot, Sonos
bows Or is now worth more than all of them. Combined,
which is pretty crazy to think about. So so far
this looks to be a success store. It's not a
very old company, but it's a company doing effective things
(22:04):
and they're clearly building a product that people like. They've
sold three million units in the last fourteen fifteen months
or so. They've sold five and a half million rings
to date. They're due to cross one billion in revenue
in twenty five, a billion and a half in twenty six.
They did five hundred million in twenty four, so they
(22:25):
seem to be growing quite nicely.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
I don't know, not being into the ring fit ring
business myself. Fit ring, I like that fit ring. I mean,
this seems like something that your friends at Cooper Tina
could come out with tomorrow and copycat. How do you
think that's the competitive landscape?
Speaker 9 (22:40):
Yeah, the competitive landscape is interesting. There's a few smaller
players that are also doing smart rings. Samsung rolled out
what they call the Galaxy Ring last year, and for Samsung,
who's actually been a dud, the functionality is just not
on par with Aura. What Aura has is a very
strong brand, They have very strong functionality, and they have
(23:01):
that big first mover advantage. But you're right, if Apple
comes out with a ring, They're gonna eat Aura's lunch.
Speaker 7 (23:08):
You know.
Speaker 9 (23:09):
Aura's perspective is that they have this gigantic and tried
and true in legal proceedings patent portfolio, and so they
feel that if Apple were to come out with a ring,
or another company were to really hit the nail on
the head with the ring, that they would be able
to defend their patents. And they've shown to be able
(23:30):
to do that. They have some cases in front of
the International Trade Commission and other organizations right now for
some of the other competitors, So we'll see what happens.
I don't anticipate Apple coming out with a ring anytime soon.
I will say that this ten billion dollar valuation is
a little bit of a double edged sword. On one hand,
(23:50):
that's amazing for the company. On the other hand, it
puts them in territory where they're probably not going to
be acquired or bought in, which would spur another company
like Apple if they wanted a ring, develop one versus
buy them. And definitely they're gonna have to make a
decision in the next couple of years whether they're going
to go public via an IPO spat or if they're
going to stay private all right.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Thanks to Mark German, Bloomberg News Managing editor for Global
Consumer Tech, coming up a look into the current succession
plan at T Mobile. You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on
Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on two
thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries. You can
access Bloomberg Intelligence via Big on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney,
and this is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlett Fou and Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
We next moved to some news in a telecommunications space.
This week, we heard that T Mobile is promoting Chief
operating Officer Shriney Gopalon to the top job. He replaced
CEO Mike Sievert, who will become vice chairman. And this
comes as T Mobile competes for customers market that now
also spans home internet and satellite service.
Speaker 10 (25:03):
For more.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
Co host Scarlett Field and I were joined by John Butler,
Bloomberg Intelligence senior telecom analyst. We first asked John if
he's surprised with T mobiles changeover.
Speaker 10 (25:13):
Not at all. This was incredibly well broadcast. Shriney has
been hitting the conference circuit. So at this time of year,
all the major investment banks hold these conferences, and he's
been in almost everyone sort of out there telling the
T Mobiles story. And in my mind it answers one
of two questions. Right with any incoming CEO, You're like,
(25:36):
can they manage the company effectively? And can they manage
the stock effectively? Can they get that narrative out spin
a good story? And he is really good at that.
So he's answered the second question, and I think in
some ways he's answered the first as well.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
Talk to us about the wireless business these days, it's
just a brutally competitive business. Just give us the lay
of the land there between AT and T, Verizon, T Mobile,
and I don't know anybody else who might be out.
Speaker 10 (26:05):
I mean, the big three are still dominant. Paul and
T Mobile has executed beautifully over the past few years.
You know, they've done a very good job of sort
of securing the lead in terms of subscriber growth by
you know, marketing on this hip counterculture brand image. They
(26:25):
continue to be, I think, having an outsized impact on consumers.
When you think a wireless it really is a consumer
retail business. They all have thousands of stores. They advertise
on the Super Bowl, they have giveaways, and I think
T Mobile, more than most, really does that well. And
I think the Big Three, because of their scale set,
(26:48):
it sort of sets this sort of wide mote for
any newcomers that want to come in. So T Mobile
as number two in the industry, I think is going
to remain firmly in that place, if not move into
the number one position over the next several years.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Number one Verizon.
Speaker 10 (27:04):
Number one is Verizon still, so I'm a Verizon person.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
I am too, But I just went to Italy and
how did it? What did you do for your phone needs?
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Fine, it's just a lot. I have a plan that
just ports over to an international.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Okay, because I do uh huh all of my offspring.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
That's the only thing that I still pay for the Yes, no.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
One wants to give that up. Why pay for your
own cell phone service when dad will pay for it.
I switched over to T Mobile because of the giveaways, Yes,
because of the free iPhone last cycle, and also because
you get free data and free international texting when you're
overseas up to five gigabytes, so that means I never
have to buy an international data parison shopping.
Speaker 10 (27:43):
That is the single biggest hook I hear. So when
people come to me and they're like, I'm a T
mobile subscriber, they have all these giveaways and they have
international goal.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
That makes a big difference because when I was on
AT and T, I was paying ten dollars a day
and that adds.
Speaker 10 (27:57):
Up really quickly, does it really?
Speaker 4 (27:59):
You know?
Speaker 3 (27:59):
And then only one person the family can get it
because you know, not everyone's going to get.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
It right and yeah, four offspring plus an next wife
you're still thinking for Well, there you go. Charlie Pellett
is on the T Mobi. He always tries to sell.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
Me to get Charlie also knows the great deal. That's
the secret here a Bloomberg Charlie was.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
Tracking the strange parts of the world where he probably
needs that kind of stuff. So what's the future of
wireless in this country? Is it just our poop growth?
Average revenue per user? And is that kind of the
story for.
Speaker 10 (28:26):
That is So that is a great question, that is
what's driving growth? Now for a telco, you start of
run out of room for adding new subs and so
you need to drive that up that average revenue per
user and they're doing it with the giveaways we were
just talking about. They actually charge modestly for those. In
some cases they're selling you phone insurance. T Mobile is
(28:50):
now pushing into the advertising business, but the real avenue
of growth to watch for them going forward is broadband.
They are making more and more inroads into the market
and T Mobile it's what I'm watching with the new
CEO here to see what he does in fiber broadband,
because if T Mobile has had any sort of a
misfire over the past decade, it's not getting into fiber
(29:14):
broadband in a bigger way in the way that AT
and TM Verizon both have through sizeable and aggressive acquisitions.
So it'll be interesting to see what he does there.
My call is he's going to start building quickly and aggressively,
would be my guess.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
A R thanks to John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Telecom analyst.
We move next to the media entertainment space. This week,
Late night host Jimmy Kimmel returned to television. ABC parent
Walt Disney had pulled the show off the air. That's
after Kimmel said conservatives were trying to score political points
off the fatal shooting of conservative activists Charlie Kirk. In
his return, Kimmel didn't shy away from poking fun at
(29:53):
President Donald Trump and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr and making
an impassioned case for free speech for more and all
this scarlet field. When I were joined by Githa Ranganath
and Bloomberg Intelligence senior media analyst, we first asked Githa
what this news means for late night networks and whether
they still make money.
Speaker 6 (30:10):
They don't make a whole lot of money, Paul, not anymore.
It used to be that, you know, late night television
would bring in a lot of ratings, would bring in
a lot of AD dollars. That has really changed. We've
we've seen linear TV kind of hemorrhage viewers now over
so many years, and late night has no exception. So
if you just kind of look at, you know, Jimmy
(30:31):
Kimmel's show, for instance, it generates roughly about fifty million
dollars in AD revenue. Compare that to a few years
ago when it used to generate close to about one
hundred and fifty million. So definitely AD revenue going down,
and most of these late night shows are losing money.
Just given the programming budget for these shows. So not
really a needle mover in a financial sense for Disney.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Okay, But in a cultural sense, it is because these
are shows that define the networks, and so thank you
for putting numbers to that, because I think there's a
lot of concern or skepticism from certain corners of American
communities that question whether Stephen Colbert's show should have been
canceled for financial reasons, as CBS asserts it was. Keita,
(31:16):
Is ABC going to pay some kind of price for
allowing Kimmel to go back on air because the President,
for instance, alluded to making more money off the company
for doing so.
Speaker 6 (31:25):
Yeah, it's certainly possible. I mean, we've seen President Trump
kind of go after you know, the broadcast networks threatened
to kind of revoke licenses, so he goes after anybody.
He uses his power, you know, the courts, to attack
anybody who says anything unflattering about him. But that's, you know,
definitely possible from a Disney perspective. Though you have to
(31:45):
remember this is a very very diversified company, So yes,
ABC is definitely a very important asset. But again, if
you put some numbers around this, scarlet. It makes up
only about they generate of Disney itself generates about nine
to one hundred billion dollars in revenue every year. ABC
is about five billion, five to six billion in revenue,
(32:06):
so it's just about five percent for the company. So again,
you know, small potatoes in the context of the company's financials.
But yes, you bring up a very important point about
culture wars. Unfortunately, I think Disney is in a losing
position whichever way, because they're either going to anger you know,
the conservatives or the other end of the spectrum.
Speaker 4 (32:26):
So it's just tough.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
Yeah, very quickly get that. In the days following kimmel suspension,
a number of people canceled or threatened to cancel their
Disney plus streaming services. Do we have a sense that
this might get kind of noisy when it comes to
the earning supports and the streaming numbers and subscriptions.
Speaker 6 (32:43):
I mean, we've seen this kind of backlash before happen,
you know, in the case of certain programming and you
know with Netflix, with other streaming services. Typically we haven't
really seen it reflected in the numbers, even though there's
a lot of noise around it. So yes, maybe a
little bit of up and down, but I don't think
it'll have again any big needle moving effect on the
Disney Plus subscriber numbers.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Ah.
Speaker 2 (33:05):
Iight, Keith, Well we got you here. I have to
ask do we have any news on succession to Bob Iger?
Speaker 6 (33:09):
Hmmm, not yet, Not yet, Paul, I mean, that's the
biggest question always for Disney. He is supposed to retire
by the end of twenty twenty six. There is a
lot of rumblings that it might be somebody internal, you know,
we keep hearing about Dana Walden. Of course, nothing certain
just yet.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
Our thanks to KEITHA. Rung Anathan Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Media Analyst.
We move next to some news in the food and
beverage industry. The coffee giant Strawbucks announced it will close
stores and eliminate nine hundred jobs in a one billion
dollar restructuring effort under new chief executive officer Brian nicchol.
For more, co host Scarlett Ffuh and I were joined
by Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Restaurant and food service analyst.
We first asked Michael for his take on this week's news.
Speaker 11 (33:50):
This was very clearly communicated to the street. Back in
April on their fiscal call, Management said that you know,
we expect more restructuring charges. Is we're going to continue
to evaluate our store base. Really, management wanted new CFO
Kathy Smith to be involved in the process, so this
was not a surprise, all right.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
A shout out to my Starbucks on Route thirty five
and Wall Township, New Jersey. They do a great job,
great folks, very efficient, very good Mike. What does this
company need to do? What do they say is under
to do list to turn this company around? What are
you looking for?
Speaker 11 (34:26):
Yeah, it's more operations in marketing and we're starting to
see things kind of inflect here. We think fiscal twenty
six should be a nice bounce back year. So you know,
first it's with the operations, right, so it's eliminating menu items,
increasing labor, which baristas. We're very happy about, creating a
(34:49):
smart queue for mobile orders, right, so the stores aren't
as chaotic and baristas aren't serving you know, mobile orders
for somebody thirty miles away before it help someone inside
the store. And then service standards, right, they're rolling out
these green Apron service standards this year. It's a big
investment on training and really nailing the consumer experience in
(35:13):
the store. And then from there it's the marketing and
marketing seems to be working. They pulled back on discounts
and what they're doing is more marketing. You'll see some
TV ads right. They're doing more digital marketing, and we
think that's a smart move. It seems to be paying
early dividends. Starbucks non rewards member transactions are up. Non
(35:34):
discounted rewards members transactions are up, and we think these
are a sign that sales are going to inflect higher
in the coming months.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
Okay, but this is taking a while. Paul and I
were just saying that Brian Nickel owns this now he's
been CEO for a year and they're still in turnaround mode.
They're still in kind of like let's figure out our
path forward. Investors, please be patient. Are investor is going
to continue to be patient for another six months to
one year?
Speaker 11 (35:59):
I don't think they're going to be patient for six
months to one year. In terms of the stock price,
I think Brian Nichols job is very much safe. You know,
you can't turn around an aircreraft carrier on a dime, right,
This is a massive organization eighteen thousand stores just here
in North America over forty thousand globally. So yes, this
is taking longer than a lot anticipated you know, myself included.
(36:23):
You know, our investor is going to be happy if
they don't see same sore sales inflect here in the
first quarter of fiscal twenty six. No, they're not going
to be happy, and you're going to see it reflected
in the share price.
Speaker 6 (36:35):
Right.
Speaker 11 (36:35):
So yeah, I mean I think they're they're making the
right moves. This has been a longer turnaround than most
had expected. But you know, I think Brian Nichols pressing
all the right buttons right now.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Our thanks to Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence senior restaurant and
food service analyst. That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence
on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on
two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries. And
remember you can that is Bloomberg Intelligence via b I
go on the terminal, I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us.
Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up
right now.
Speaker 7 (37:10):
M
Bloomberg Audio, Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence
with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
How do you think the FED is looking at tariffs?
The uncertainty of terriffs.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
Let's take a look at the sectors and how they performed.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
A lot of investors getting whipsaled every day by news.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Events, breaking market headlines, and corporate news from across the globe.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Could we see a market disruption of market event?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
So people just too exuberant out there?
Speaker 3 (00:31):
You see some so called low quality stocks driving this
short term rally.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube,
and Bloomberg Originals.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big
business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets. Each
and every week, we provide in depth research and data
on some of the two thousand companies and one hundred
and thirty industries our animalts cover worldwide. Today, we'll look
at why the Trump administration is warning about tiele on
all use during pregnancy. Plus we'll look at what's in
store for the telecommunications company T Mobile after naming a
(01:05):
new CEO. But first we begin in the anti trust Space.
We recently heard that the US Federal Trade Commission and
seven states have sued Live Nation Entertainment and its ticket
Master subsidiary. It's for failing to prevent the use of
automated ticketing bots and large scale resale operations. From more
co hosts, Scarlettfield and I were joined by Jennifer Ree,
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior litigation analyst. We first asked for Jens
(01:28):
first impressions on the latest news.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
Well, I think, first of all, not too much of
a surprise, because they did recently sue a much smaller
entity over the same law, which is called the Better
Ticketing Online Sales Act or the Bots Act, and Live
Nation was mentioned an awful lot in that lawsuit, so
it sort of led to the conclusion that there might
be another suit brought. And President Trump did order the
Federal Trade Commission to better enforce this act back in
(01:53):
an executive order in March, and they have a report
due to the President on September twenty seventh, so saying
what if they done to better enforce the act. So
I think it's not a surprise that a big lawsuit
came down before that report is due.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
You know, you talk you talk to a lot of
nation people, and I've known them for a long time.
I think they want to clean this stuff up. They
want to take out the middleman, the scalper. They want
to simplify the fees because they know the feedback is
terrible from their customers. But this is still a thing,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
I mean yeah, no, right, Well, first of all, antitrust
cases tend to be backward looking, so what they may
be taking efforts today, but we're looking at what they've
been doing since twenty eighteen. Essentially. The other thing is
they do say that, and they have said that to
the Department of Justice and to Congress as well. But
if you look at what's been alleged in this lawsuit,
they're an awful lot of statements and documents cited to
(02:42):
when their internal business communications going on. That suggests that
they've kind of turned a blind eye to the broker
activity because they profit from the resale market of those
tickets as well. How did they do that well, because
they sell the primary ticket and take fees, and then
the brokers buy in bulk and then they put it
they resell on Ticketmaster's resale arm. Ticketmaster charges just to
(03:03):
list it and then they take another fee when the
ticket's actually sold, So they're basically double dipping on the
same ticket.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
How is this different?
Speaker 3 (03:11):
I know that's not good. How is this different from
what ticket resellers, vivid Seats or access or any of
those other companies that consumers have the option of using,
how they operate and how they collect fees.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
So this is about whether they knowingly resell these tickets. Now,
a reseller could sell a ticket that's been bought improperly
by a bot but not know it. They could implement
security measures, not understand the extent to which the bots
in the scalpers have been able to technically go around
those security measures, and then, you know, in an honestly
attempt to provide a place to resell tickets, resell the tickets.
(03:45):
In this case, what the FTC is saying is that
Ticketmaster knowingly did this, and they didn't step in the way,
They didn't implement any of the rules that they have
internally to.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Let it happen.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
They let it happen. So it remains to be seen
whether some of the other resellers have that same kind
of evidence internally. It may be that they're doing what
they can to prevent the conduct and in that case
it may not violate the Bots Act.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
How about the Department of Justice, what are they doing
with this company? I mean, is there talk of breaking
up Live Nation from the Ticketmaster?
Speaker 4 (04:13):
The Department of Justice has been going after this company
for years, ever since Live Nation acquired Ticketmaster, which yes, Paul,
I know you worked on that deal, right, and that
was done with the consent order, meaning Live Nation promised
to behave a certain way if they were allowed to
buy the company, and essentially it's been alleged and investigated
and found twice now that they violated that. So now
(04:37):
the Department of Justice has just sued them and said,
you're engaging in all kinds of anti competitive activity by
virtue of your strong position kind of in every aspect
of the live concert and live event industry. And you
know the only answer at this point is to force
you to sell Ticketmaster because when we impose behavioral conditions,
you just ignore it.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
How do you see this resolving. Is this going to
be something where they battle it out to the very
end and get a verdict or are they going to
try to settle.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
Well, I think two different answers depending on the lawsuit
I think on the FTC lawsuit over the Bots Act
probably ends in a settlement because the penalties are astronomical,
you know, over fifty three thousand dollars per violation, and
we're talking about probably five million violations a year, accounting
and counting right starting in twenty eighteen. So that probably
ends in a settlement for a fraction of what ultimately
(05:27):
could be fined the Department of Justice suit. I suspect
Live Nation will fight and fight for many years. That
goes to trial in front of a jury in March.
So we're actually probably going to have a verdict in
the first quarter unless they managed to finacle a settlement,
which I understand they're trying hard right now to settle
with the Trump administration. But if they don't, it goes
to trial in March. We'll have a jury verdict. I
(05:48):
think it'll be hard to find a jury that's not
going to be inclined to rule against Live Nation if
they've ever tried to buy a ticket.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
For an event like how many finds one who's completely
impractive about this and has no real firsthand experience exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Now, I look like as old stock analysts I am,
I look at the stock, it's a twenty six percent
yeah day. Is that the market telling me we've got
an administration in office right now that might be open
to a deal. Is that kind of what it's saying.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
I think so. I think there are those out there
that think Live Nation may be able to get some
sort of a deal. You know, we know they're making
a lot of efforts to do so in doing things
the way seem to be have been successful for others
with this administration, and I do think that's the sentiment.
But and also it's a long way away from something happening.
Even if they lose this jury trial in March, then
(06:34):
the judge has to decide on a remedy, then they appeal,
that remedy probably gets stayed pending the appeal, So we're
really not looking at an impact for a couple more years.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
In the meantime, you have artists trying to you know,
limit how they sell their tickets as well, and that
just creates confusion for consumers too, you know, like they'll
release a you know, slate of tickets and then hold
off and then release another slate of tickets, and if
you want to transfer tickets to someone it's very different
goal on the Ticketmaster app because they want to make
sure that you're an actual person on the bot. I mean,
(07:04):
it just gets difficult for people who just want to
go see.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
A show, right, And that's why this is a politically
popular cause. You know, this is the one thing that
leads me to think maybe the DJ won't settle with
Live Nation despite the efforts, because this is really you know,
the Taylor Swift fiasco brought it all to the forefront
more than ever. Springsteen whor's Springsteen Right. There have been
other issues since then, and it is politically popular. See
(07:28):
what happens there.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
The only way you know, musical folks can make money
is touring, right.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
And don't get Spotify doesn't pay you anything.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
No, I mean, it's it, that's why you got. I mean,
I saw Clapton, Eric Clapton.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
And the dude's eighty was sitting the entire time, no.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
No standing most of the time. Sounded great. You know,
I don't know, but I mean, yeah, you know, there's
either selling their catalogs for hundreds of millions of dollars, right,
and they're still touring.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
And merch merch tons and tons, and that's the problem
with these astronomical ticket prices that doesn't go back to
the artist, you know, it's just going to the middle
man or going to Live Nation or Ticketmaster, whoever the
reseller is.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Our thanks to Jennifer Ree, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst,
we move next to news from the memory chip maker Micron.
This week, shares of the company fell after its forecast
for the first quarter failed to impress investors, and this
comes despite revenue and profit expectations being higher than estimated.
In the backdrop, Micron stock has nearly doubled this year,
rising at a faster pace than most of its chip piers,
(08:28):
reflecting AI fueled optimism for more. Co host Scarlettfield w
Anden I were joined by Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence Semiconductor analyst.
We first asked Jake why investors were disappointed with Micron.
Speaker 5 (08:39):
I think it has a lot to do with just
very high expectations coming into the quarter. But overall, look,
I mean, the fundamentals of the business remained very strong.
I think the commentary on the call for management was
very positive, and so I think we're going to continue
to see an up cycle and memory at least for
the near term.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So what is the call here, what's the street looking
for for this name? Again, A stocks just as you mentioned,
ripped this year up ninety four percent year today. What's
the call here?
Speaker 5 (09:07):
Yeah, No, I mean, I think investors are really looking
at high bandwidth memory, They're looking at AI, They're looking
at data center related revenue. In the last fiscal year,
data center related revenue was fifty to six percent of sales.
So as demand continues for that, we also have to
keep in mind that, you know, there's traditional products as
(09:29):
well that are an important part of the business, that
includes smartphones and PCs. Investors really want to see continued
pricing strength. And as demand continues to grow for high
bandwidth memory, which is very important for AI, and as
capacity for that shifts over to high bandwith memory, it
can further constrains the supply because it has lower yields,
(09:51):
it has larger die sizes, so there's only so much
capacity industry and it's shifting over in favor of AI,
and that's just constraining supply for traditional products. Which given
the supply and demand, the importance of supplying demand balancing
the industry, it would suggest that as long as demand
for AI continues to grow, we'll see further pricing increases.
Speaker 3 (10:12):
So that's a lot of conditions. I mean, you talk
about memory chips, which Micron is the biggest US maker of.
We know that this business is kind of famous or
infamous really for merging between booms and busts, and that
results in these price wings to compensate for the previous
you know, plethora of chips or dearth of chips. How
(10:33):
does the AI revolution change this dynamic?
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (10:37):
No, And as I said before, really I want to
put emphasis on the fact that high bandwidth memory demand
constrain the supply for other products, specifically with DRAM. But
DRAM now accounts for about eighty percent of sales for
the company, so it's vastly more important than what we're
seeing in NAND. But the other twenty percent of sales
in NAND, we're also seeing strength for enterprise solid state drives,
(10:58):
which are also important for AI. So yeah, look, I
mean I think historically we've seen cycles up cycles tend
to last somewhere between seven to ten quarters, but we're
now extending beyond that. I mean, we're looking at, based
on the guidance, at least twelve quarters and then based
on the potential for further increases in pricing, it could
extend all the way through the next fiscal yeur at
(11:20):
a minimum. So yeah, I mean, really it's just kind
of an almost unprecedented situation, or at least not something that
we've seen in a very long time. And it really
just comes from structural tailments from AI, both on demand,
which is improving pricing via different products like high manWith memory,
but also just because like I said before, it's just
(11:40):
constraining overall supply, and that's not just unique to Micron,
that's true for both Skee Heinex and Samsung as well,
and the three of them account for the vast majority
of DRAM demand in the industry in nand as well.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Yeah, Drake, that's kind kind of where I wanted to
go the competitive landscape here. It feels like there's again
you mentioned kind of three names there. Is that really
kind of what's driving? Are those three companies driving this business?
Speaker 6 (12:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (12:04):
Yeah, yeah, so eske Heinez has really had the lead
in high bandwidth memory, Micron has become sort of a
very fast follower, and now there's reports that Samsung will
be supplying into Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra platform, which might pave
the way into Rubin for them as well. So I mean,
I think this three company dynamic that we'd seen for
a very long time. Obviously you've had some Chinese competitors
(12:27):
come on, but this three company dynamic that we saw
in traditional DRAM seems to be now shaping up again
for high bandwidth memory. So I think those past dynamics
that we've seen are going to be the dynamics going
forward again.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Our thanks to Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductor analyst, coming
up a look at how US drug Makropfiser is trying
to carve its share of the BCD DRUB market. You're
listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth
research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred
and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence VI A B.
I go on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney and this
(13:03):
is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
We move now to the news in a pharmaceutical space.
This week, the US drugmaker Pfizer said it will pay
four point nine billion dollars for the obesity startup met Sarah,
it's a bid to catch up the rival drugmakers after
failing to compete with its own weight loss medications From
work co hosts Scarlett Foe when I were joined by
Sam Fazzelli, Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research for Global Industries
and senior pharmaceuticals analysts. We first asked Sam to give
(13:37):
us some context on why this deal is important.
Speaker 7 (13:40):
Obesity is one of the key causes of a whole
variety of diseases, cardiovascular, cancer, mental health. So if we
can treat it, if we can prevent it, if we
can reduce it, it's brilliant for the entirety of society.
Here there is a deal where Fizer thinks they've got
something that's going to be able to give them a
(14:02):
chance at playing in this very important area and very
massive market. Right. So the drugs are interesting, they're relatively
early stage. We're looking to see with some new data
coming up, whether some of the promise that we've seen
earlier for these drugs that the company has, which the
latest stage one is still in phase two they need
to start the phase three in twenty twenty six, whether
(14:24):
they are as competitive as they looked in the earlier trials.
There were some questions on efficacy less so than side
effect profile. So we'll have to wait and see how
that pans out.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Sam, can you get into the science a little bit
and maybe you know, keep it basic for folks like
Paul and me, because Metzara is described as the next
generation hopeful in obesities. They use these long acting analogs
versus GLP one and I'm wondering for people who might
be holding out for matsera's treatment what that means versus
the currently available zip bound or we go vi.
Speaker 7 (14:57):
Yeah. Yeah, So the latest stage drug is very similar
to we go v and similar to zepetite or zip bound,
and the Amlin drug is a little bit early stay
earlier stage. There are companies we are more advanced drugs
in that world, but they all kind of feed into
the same pathway, which is the pathway that talks between
(15:21):
your food intake and your society centers in your brain
and your insulin centers in your pancreas it tries to
balance of eaten enough, let's stop eating now and let's
release some insulin make it more sensitive so that we
can deal with the onslaughter sugar that comes into our blood.
That's where they are, is that's central to that space.
(15:43):
There's cells in the gut that release glucle like JLP ones,
grouking like peptize the cells in other parts of the
body who are responding to it. So that's where these
things sit, and amlin is just one of those agents
in the middle of it.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
Say, I'm just kind of stepping back.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Is GLP one drugs in general, there's a certain level
of efficacy today, there's a certain level of say, side effects,
whether it's large or something else today. Is there a
room for improvement on both efficacy and side effects going
forward with these drugs?
Speaker 7 (16:14):
Yeah, I mean with it's the balance that's the most important.
With efficacy, I think we're pretty much there. I mean,
you know, there are folks that we know that go
on a drug for a week or two and they
lose four or five kilograms. That's fine. You don't want
to lose much faster than that, because I don't think
it's particularly healthy if you lose weight at a much
higher speed. And also you don't want to get much
lighter than a aty kilo or ninety kilo or seventy five
(16:36):
kilograms depending on your size. So the key is how
do you get there. If you get there by having
lots of side effects, then your probability of staying on
the drug is lower, but we want you to stay
on the drug. So it's a very very tight balance.
And then of course you have to figure out what
am I happy taking a weekly injection, which I think
a lot of people are not. Don't have a problem
with it, But what if Mitcera is right and push
(16:58):
it to once monthly, if some of the other competitent
is coming along with once every three months. Now, those
are things that we have to wait and see how
the data shows in terms of that balance of just
referred to.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Our thanks to Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research
for Global Industries and senior pharmaceuticals analysts. Staying in the
pharmaceutical space. This week, the Trump administration linked thiland on
to autism and urge pregnant women to avoid the common
pain medication, and this comes despite the lack of widely
accepted scientific evidence supporting the risk. For more co host
Scarlett Field and I were joined by a Hunter Bloomberg
(17:32):
Intelligence senior equity analysts for biopharmaceuticals. You first asked Ann
about the science behind the latest news.
Speaker 8 (17:38):
There are a lot of studies on it. It's certainly
driven by an increase in finding a solution for the
increased rates of ADHD and autism. I think it's really
important here to qualify or quantify what we're talking about
with frequent Thailand all use, and most of the studies
are looking at measured as more than twenty eight days
over the course of your pregnant see, so that is
(18:01):
a lot of tile and all use. We're not talking
about you have a high fever and you take it
for a day or two. This is this is kind
of more long term use. There is a correlation between
tile and all use and these disorders and children, and
I'll probably lose listeners if I go too deeply. But
correlation is not causation. Those are two separate things. And
(18:23):
while there's a lot of literature out there, a lot
of clinical studies, I would argue that the best ones
look at sibling analysis, so they compare a mother who
had frequent use during one pregnancy and not the next,
and that's the best way to kind of look at this.
And in those studies there was no findings of increased risks,
(18:43):
and there have been several There was a two and
a half million dollars a two and a half million
children study in Sweden, as well as a more recent
one out of Japan. Unfortunately, randomized trials are are difficult
to do, there's just too many variables. But the sibling
analysis is probably the best we have.
Speaker 3 (19:01):
So And when I think about the companies that are affected,
certainly ken View, which owns the Talnyl brand. Tailanol's generic
name is a seed of menaphin, and there are many
other companies that make a seed of menaphin as well.
Are we seeing them impacted in any way?
Speaker 7 (19:14):
You know?
Speaker 8 (19:15):
This is even for ken View, this is maybe a
high single digit portion of sales, and that's thailenol overall,
So you assume that the pregnant population is a much
smaller percentage of those sales. And I'd argue even you know,
before all of this, a lot of physicians, certainly mine
when I was pregnant, recommended only taking tilenol when you
have one of those you know, high fevers, So I
(19:37):
wouldn't expect it to truly be a material impact to
any of these companies.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Is there anything else out there that is at risk here?
I mean from just the FDA, I mean your coverage here,
because I know there's a lot of uncertainty about which
drugs are you know, kind of favored by this administration,
which ones aren't. Is that Are you seeing that in
your coverage of your companies?
Speaker 8 (19:58):
Well, for pregnancy in particular, I'd say, are there are
no favorite drugs? You know, you certainly were never suggested
to take aspirin and Tylenall was one of the few
things that was considered okay. But overall, you know, anytime
you get a lot of media attention on any drug
from politics or anything else, it's typically not a great
(20:18):
thing for the companies. But I think it does tend
to even out as it passes.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
You are our senior equity analyst for biopharmaceuticals. When the
Secretary of Health, Robert F. Kennedy Junior, speaks, does he
tend to move companies in your universe?
Speaker 8 (20:33):
I would argue, yes, for better or for worse, I'd
say they definitely move, but I would say that they
go back to a steady state.
Speaker 7 (20:40):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
So it's an immediate knee jerk reaction and then things
calm down exactly.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Our thanks to Ann Hunter, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior equity analyst
for Biopharmaceuticals. We move next to some news in the
luxury space. This week we heard that The Finished Company,
or A Health, is raising eight hundred and seventy five
million dollars in a new Series E financing round, and
it's now closing in on a roughly eleven billion dollar valuation.
That's after selling about three million rings over the past year.
(21:07):
For more, co host Scarlett fil When I were joined
by Mark German, Bloomberg News Managing editor for Global Consumer Tech,
we first asked Mark for more background on the Aura
ring maker.
Speaker 9 (21:17):
They want to scale production, they want to scale R
and D, they want to move into new regions, they
want to get into new retail stores, they want to
add new software features, so they're looking to grow quickly.
This nearly eleven billion dollar valuation. This is a pretty
specific hardware company. They really make one thing, and if
you look at their market cap now after that raise,
(21:41):
you compare it to other companies that are known for
really one type of hardware product. Peloton, Eye, Robot, Sonos
bows Or is now worth more than all of them. Combined,
which is pretty crazy to think about. So so far
this looks to be a success store. It's not a
very old company, but it's a company doing effective things
(22:04):
and they're clearly building a product that people like. They've
sold three million units in the last fourteen fifteen months
or so. They've sold five and a half million rings
to date. They're due to cross one billion in revenue
in twenty five, a billion and a half in twenty six.
They did five hundred million in twenty four, so they
(22:25):
seem to be growing quite nicely.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
I don't know, not being into the ring fit ring
business myself. Fit ring, I like that fit ring. I mean,
this seems like something that your friends at Cooper Tina
could come out with tomorrow and copycat. How do you
think that's the competitive landscape?
Speaker 9 (22:40):
Yeah, the competitive landscape is interesting. There's a few smaller
players that are also doing smart rings. Samsung rolled out
what they call the Galaxy Ring last year, and for Samsung,
who's actually been a dud, the functionality is just not
on par with Aura. What Aura has is a very
strong brand, They have very strong functionality, and they have
(23:01):
that big first mover advantage. But you're right, if Apple
comes out with a ring, They're gonna eat Aura's lunch.
Speaker 7 (23:08):
You know.
Speaker 9 (23:09):
Aura's perspective is that they have this gigantic and tried
and true in legal proceedings patent portfolio, and so they
feel that if Apple were to come out with a ring,
or another company were to really hit the nail on
the head with the ring, that they would be able
to defend their patents. And they've shown to be able
(23:30):
to do that. They have some cases in front of
the International Trade Commission and other organizations right now for
some of the other competitors, So we'll see what happens.
I don't anticipate Apple coming out with a ring anytime soon.
I will say that this ten billion dollar valuation is
a little bit of a double edged sword. On one hand,
(23:50):
that's amazing for the company. On the other hand, it
puts them in territory where they're probably not going to
be acquired or bought in, which would spur another company
like Apple if they wanted a ring, develop one versus
buy them. And definitely they're gonna have to make a
decision in the next couple of years whether they're going
to go public via an IPO spat or if they're
going to stay private all right.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Thanks to Mark German, Bloomberg News Managing editor for Global
Consumer Tech, coming up a look into the current succession
plan at T Mobile. You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on
Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on two
thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries. You can
access Bloomberg Intelligence via Big on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney,
and this is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlett Fou and Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
We next moved to some news in a telecommunications space.
This week, we heard that T Mobile is promoting Chief
operating Officer Shriney Gopalon to the top job. He replaced
CEO Mike Sievert, who will become vice chairman. And this
comes as T Mobile competes for customers market that now
also spans home internet and satellite service.
Speaker 10 (25:03):
For more.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
Co host Scarlett Field and I were joined by John Butler,
Bloomberg Intelligence senior telecom analyst. We first asked John if
he's surprised with T mobiles changeover.
Speaker 10 (25:13):
Not at all. This was incredibly well broadcast. Shriney has
been hitting the conference circuit. So at this time of year,
all the major investment banks hold these conferences, and he's
been in almost everyone sort of out there telling the
T Mobiles story. And in my mind it answers one
of two questions. Right with any incoming CEO, You're like,
(25:36):
can they manage the company effectively? And can they manage
the stock effectively? Can they get that narrative out spin
a good story? And he is really good at that.
So he's answered the second question, and I think in
some ways he's answered the first as well.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
Talk to us about the wireless business these days, it's
just a brutally competitive business. Just give us the lay
of the land there between AT and T, Verizon, T Mobile,
and I don't know anybody else who might be out.
Speaker 10 (26:05):
I mean, the big three are still dominant. Paul and
T Mobile has executed beautifully over the past few years.
You know, they've done a very good job of sort
of securing the lead in terms of subscriber growth by
you know, marketing on this hip counterculture brand image. They
(26:25):
continue to be, I think, having an outsized impact on consumers.
When you think a wireless it really is a consumer
retail business. They all have thousands of stores. They advertise
on the Super Bowl, they have giveaways, and I think
T Mobile, more than most, really does that well. And
I think the Big Three, because of their scale set,
(26:48):
it sort of sets this sort of wide mote for
any newcomers that want to come in. So T Mobile
as number two in the industry, I think is going
to remain firmly in that place, if not move into
the number one position over the next several years.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Number one Verizon.
Speaker 10 (27:04):
Number one is Verizon still, so I'm a Verizon person.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
I am too, But I just went to Italy and
how did it? What did you do for your phone needs?
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Fine, it's just a lot. I have a plan that
just ports over to an international.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Okay, because I do uh huh all of my offspring.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
That's the only thing that I still pay for the Yes, no.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
One wants to give that up. Why pay for your
own cell phone service when dad will pay for it.
I switched over to T Mobile because of the giveaways, Yes,
because of the free iPhone last cycle, and also because
you get free data and free international texting when you're
overseas up to five gigabytes, so that means I never
have to buy an international data parison shopping.
Speaker 10 (27:43):
That is the single biggest hook I hear. So when
people come to me and they're like, I'm a T
mobile subscriber, they have all these giveaways and they have
international goal.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
That makes a big difference because when I was on
AT and T, I was paying ten dollars a day
and that adds.
Speaker 10 (27:57):
Up really quickly, does it really?
Speaker 4 (27:59):
You know?
Speaker 3 (27:59):
And then only one person the family can get it
because you know, not everyone's going to get.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
It right and yeah, four offspring plus an next wife
you're still thinking for Well, there you go. Charlie Pellett
is on the T Mobi. He always tries to sell.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
Me to get Charlie also knows the great deal. That's
the secret here a Bloomberg Charlie was.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
Tracking the strange parts of the world where he probably
needs that kind of stuff. So what's the future of
wireless in this country? Is it just our poop growth?
Average revenue per user? And is that kind of the
story for.
Speaker 10 (28:26):
That is So that is a great question, that is
what's driving growth? Now for a telco, you start of
run out of room for adding new subs and so
you need to drive that up that average revenue per
user and they're doing it with the giveaways we were
just talking about. They actually charge modestly for those. In
some cases they're selling you phone insurance. T Mobile is
(28:50):
now pushing into the advertising business, but the real avenue
of growth to watch for them going forward is broadband.
They are making more and more inroads into the market
and T Mobile it's what I'm watching with the new
CEO here to see what he does in fiber broadband,
because if T Mobile has had any sort of a
misfire over the past decade, it's not getting into fiber
(29:14):
broadband in a bigger way in the way that AT
and TM Verizon both have through sizeable and aggressive acquisitions.
So it'll be interesting to see what he does there.
My call is he's going to start building quickly and aggressively,
would be my guess.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
A R thanks to John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Telecom analyst.
We move next to the media entertainment space. This week,
Late night host Jimmy Kimmel returned to television. ABC parent
Walt Disney had pulled the show off the air. That's
after Kimmel said conservatives were trying to score political points
off the fatal shooting of conservative activists Charlie Kirk. In
his return, Kimmel didn't shy away from poking fun at
(29:53):
President Donald Trump and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr and making
an impassioned case for free speech for more and all
this scarlet field. When I were joined by Githa Ranganath
and Bloomberg Intelligence senior media analyst, we first asked Githa
what this news means for late night networks and whether
they still make money.
Speaker 6 (30:10):
They don't make a whole lot of money, Paul, not anymore.
It used to be that, you know, late night television
would bring in a lot of ratings, would bring in
a lot of AD dollars. That has really changed. We've
we've seen linear TV kind of hemorrhage viewers now over
so many years, and late night has no exception. So
if you just kind of look at, you know, Jimmy
(30:31):
Kimmel's show, for instance, it generates roughly about fifty million
dollars in AD revenue. Compare that to a few years
ago when it used to generate close to about one
hundred and fifty million. So definitely AD revenue going down,
and most of these late night shows are losing money.
Just given the programming budget for these shows. So not
really a needle mover in a financial sense for Disney.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Okay, But in a cultural sense, it is because these
are shows that define the networks, and so thank you
for putting numbers to that, because I think there's a
lot of concern or skepticism from certain corners of American
communities that question whether Stephen Colbert's show should have been
canceled for financial reasons, as CBS asserts it was. Keita,
(31:16):
Is ABC going to pay some kind of price for
allowing Kimmel to go back on air because the President,
for instance, alluded to making more money off the company
for doing so.
Speaker 6 (31:25):
Yeah, it's certainly possible. I mean, we've seen President Trump
kind of go after you know, the broadcast networks threatened
to kind of revoke licenses, so he goes after anybody.
He uses his power, you know, the courts, to attack
anybody who says anything unflattering about him. But that's, you know,
definitely possible from a Disney perspective. Though you have to
(31:45):
remember this is a very very diversified company, So yes,
ABC is definitely a very important asset. But again, if
you put some numbers around this, scarlet. It makes up
only about they generate of Disney itself generates about nine
to one hundred billion dollars in revenue every year. ABC
is about five billion, five to six billion in revenue,
(32:06):
so it's just about five percent for the company. So again,
you know, small potatoes in the context of the company's financials.
But yes, you bring up a very important point about
culture wars. Unfortunately, I think Disney is in a losing
position whichever way, because they're either going to anger you know,
the conservatives or the other end of the spectrum.
Speaker 4 (32:26):
So it's just tough.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
Yeah, very quickly get that. In the days following kimmel suspension,
a number of people canceled or threatened to cancel their
Disney plus streaming services. Do we have a sense that
this might get kind of noisy when it comes to
the earning supports and the streaming numbers and subscriptions.
Speaker 6 (32:43):
I mean, we've seen this kind of backlash before happen,
you know, in the case of certain programming and you
know with Netflix, with other streaming services. Typically we haven't
really seen it reflected in the numbers, even though there's
a lot of noise around it. So yes, maybe a
little bit of up and down, but I don't think
it'll have again any big needle moving effect on the
Disney Plus subscriber numbers.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Ah.
Speaker 2 (33:05):
Iight, Keith, Well we got you here. I have to
ask do we have any news on succession to Bob Iger?
Speaker 6 (33:09):
Hmmm, not yet, Not yet, Paul, I mean, that's the
biggest question always for Disney. He is supposed to retire
by the end of twenty twenty six. There is a
lot of rumblings that it might be somebody internal, you know,
we keep hearing about Dana Walden. Of course, nothing certain
just yet.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
Our thanks to KEITHA. Rung Anathan Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Media Analyst.
We move next to some news in the food and
beverage industry. The coffee giant Strawbucks announced it will close
stores and eliminate nine hundred jobs in a one billion
dollar restructuring effort under new chief executive officer Brian nicchol.
For more, co host Scarlett Ffuh and I were joined
by Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Restaurant and food service analyst.
We first asked Michael for his take on this week's news.
Speaker 11 (33:50):
This was very clearly communicated to the street. Back in
April on their fiscal call, Management said that you know,
we expect more restructuring charges. Is we're going to continue
to evaluate our store base. Really, management wanted new CFO
Kathy Smith to be involved in the process, so this
was not a surprise, all right.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
A shout out to my Starbucks on Route thirty five
and Wall Township, New Jersey. They do a great job,
great folks, very efficient, very good Mike. What does this
company need to do? What do they say is under
to do list to turn this company around? What are
you looking for?
Speaker 11 (34:26):
Yeah, it's more operations in marketing and we're starting to
see things kind of inflect here. We think fiscal twenty
six should be a nice bounce back year. So you know,
first it's with the operations, right, so it's eliminating menu items,
increasing labor, which baristas. We're very happy about, creating a
(34:49):
smart queue for mobile orders, right, so the stores aren't
as chaotic and baristas aren't serving you know, mobile orders
for somebody thirty miles away before it help someone inside
the store. And then service standards, right, they're rolling out
these green Apron service standards this year. It's a big
investment on training and really nailing the consumer experience in
(35:13):
the store. And then from there it's the marketing and
marketing seems to be working. They pulled back on discounts
and what they're doing is more marketing. You'll see some
TV ads right. They're doing more digital marketing, and we
think that's a smart move. It seems to be paying
early dividends. Starbucks non rewards member transactions are up. Non
(35:34):
discounted rewards members transactions are up, and we think these
are a sign that sales are going to inflect higher
in the coming months.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
Okay, but this is taking a while. Paul and I
were just saying that Brian Nickel owns this now he's
been CEO for a year and they're still in turnaround mode.
They're still in kind of like let's figure out our
path forward. Investors, please be patient. Are investor is going
to continue to be patient for another six months to
one year?
Speaker 11 (35:59):
I don't think they're going to be patient for six
months to one year. In terms of the stock price,
I think Brian Nichols job is very much safe. You know,
you can't turn around an aircreraft carrier on a dime, right,
This is a massive organization eighteen thousand stores just here
in North America over forty thousand globally. So yes, this
is taking longer than a lot anticipated you know, myself included.
(36:23):
You know, our investor is going to be happy if
they don't see same sore sales inflect here in the
first quarter of fiscal twenty six. No, they're not going
to be happy, and you're going to see it reflected
in the share price.
Speaker 6 (36:35):
Right.
Speaker 11 (36:35):
So yeah, I mean I think they're they're making the
right moves. This has been a longer turnaround than most
had expected. But you know, I think Brian Nichols pressing
all the right buttons right now.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Our thanks to Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence senior restaurant and
food service analyst. That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence
on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on
two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries. And
remember you can that is Bloomberg Intelligence via b I
go on the terminal, I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us.
Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up
right now.
Speaker 7 (37:10):
M
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