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October 3, 2025 • 37 mins

Watch Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. 

Hosts: Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu

On this podcast:

- Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, recaps Nike earnings.

- Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst on US Media, discusses Spotify naming Alex Norström and Gustav Söderström Co-CEOs.

- Nathan Naidu, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Research Analyst, discusses EA agreeing to a sale in the largest leveraged buyout on record.

- Vincent Piazza, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity Research Analyst, Oil & Gas, discusses news that Exxon  is planning to cut about 2,000 Workers.

- Scott Levine, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Services Analyst, discusses his research “AI Power Demand Fuels $350 Billion Build Cycle.”

-  Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst, discusses CoreWeave inking a $14 Billion with Meta.

- Brian Egger, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Gaming and Lodging Analyst, discusses Carnival earnings.

Bloomberg Intelligence, the research arm of Bloomberg L.P., has more than 400 professionals who provide in-depth analysis on more than 2,000 companies and 135 industries while considering strategic, equity and credit perspectives. BI also provides interactive data from over 500 independent contributors. It is available exclusively for Bloomberg Terminal subscribers.

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio, Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence
with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
How do you think the FED is looking at tariffs?
The uncertainty of terriffs.

Speaker 3 (00:17):
Let's take a look at the sectors and how they.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Performed a lot of investors getting whipsaled every day by news.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
Events, breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
Could we see a market disruption of market events?

Speaker 2 (00:29):
So people just too exuberant out there?

Speaker 3 (00:31):
You see some so called low quality stocks driving this
short term rally.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio,
YouTube and Bloomberg Originals.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we tag inside the big
business story is impacting Wall Street and the global markets.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
Each and every week we provide in depth research and
data on some of the two thousand companies and one
hundred and thirty industries are analysts cover worldwide.

Speaker 2 (00:54):
Today, we'll look at why the energy company exon Mobil
is cutting three to four percent of its global workforce,
us a.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
Look at why the AI cloud computing startup core Weave
is signing a deal with tech giant Meta platforms.

Speaker 2 (01:05):
But first we begin with the news from the athletic
footwear company Nike.

Speaker 3 (01:08):
This week, the company said that efforts to roll out
new products, boost marketing efforts, and clear out old inventory
helped ease a long time sales slump.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
Nick You said it's sales fell one percent on a
currency neutral basis in its most recent quarter, and that
was a smaller job that investors anticipated.

Speaker 3 (01:23):
For the analysis, we were joined by Punam Goyel, senior
US e Commerce and retail analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
We first ask Poonam if Nike's turnaround plant is working.

Speaker 4 (01:32):
It's working, Nike is able to pick up momentum. Sales
on a reported basis were up a one percent, Inventories
were down two percent. This is exactly what we wanted
to see. We wanted to see inventories aligned with sales.
So while the work isn't done and it's not over
and it's not a straight lineup, we do see momentum building.

(01:54):
What they're doing is working, the new products, the innovation,
the focus on wholesale, it's all coming together. There are
still some pitfalls. China is still sluggish and we'll need
to wait and see what happens there as well as
with its Converse brand.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
Okay, so China's definitely an issue. Converse is work in progress.
When I look at the revenue line, the top line,
what I see is direct revenue fell four percent, wholesale
revenue rows seven percent. Just break that down for us
in terms of what that means direct revenue versus wholesale revenue.

Speaker 4 (02:24):
Sure, so direct revenue composers of stores, which were actually
up one percent. So that shows us that the innovation
and the new products which are flowing through their own
stores is working. What made the DTC revenue go down
four percent was that digital was down twelve percent. No
surprise here if this is where they're clearing all that
access inventory, so this channel will be pressured for a

(02:46):
couple of quarters. Still, wholesale up seven percent a great,
great number. I mean, it just shows that coming back
into partnerships with folt Locker in a more meaningful way,
getting on Amazon dot Com, all these efforts are paying off,
and they're where the customer is. They're gaining their shelf
space back and the customers that are responding favorably.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
You know, the Nike brand is such a powerful brand.
I think of it like Coca Cola or Apple. It's
so powerful. Yet some of those American brands in China
under pressure. And I'm wondering, just with the geopolitics, is
Nike a brand where that might be feeling some anti
American sentiment from consumers.

Speaker 4 (03:22):
Well, that has happened in the past, there have been
boycotts against you know, US American brands. We don't think
that's the issue yet from what we're hearing, but we
do think that the issue is more product at Nike
in China, So they do need to ramp a product
and they do have a lot of access inventory there,
more so than they do in the US today, So
that's also a work in progress that they need to

(03:43):
get through.

Speaker 5 (03:44):
Let's talk about profitability.

Speaker 3 (03:45):
Margins declined due to higher discounts and then also the
higher tariffs in North America. I look at gross margin
forty two point two percent last year. At this time
it was more than forty five percent. Now the forty
two point two percent was better than estimated. How How
long is it going to take for Nike to turn
that around.

Speaker 4 (04:03):
I think we have quite some time. They said that
they do still aspire to reach double digit EBIT margin
EBIT margins in the quarter that they just reported was
only at seven point one percent, So that's a long runway.
We don't think it's any time soon. And the hit
from tariffs is building, not reducing. They had expected a
billion dollars the last time they spoke to us, and

(04:25):
that one to one point five billion dollars and access
costs from teriffs.

Speaker 2 (04:31):
How much are they passing along to the retailer versus
taking it in their margin, because I mean, Nike's probably
just a great example of how companies are trying to
deal with the tariffs.

Speaker 4 (04:40):
Yes, I think they're doing this actually very smartly. They're
not increasing prices on products that are under one hundred dollars,
but they are taking prices up on sneakers that are
above that price point. So if you think about moving
prices up, it's very easy to say the price of
milk went up from three dollars to three point fifty.
But when you're looking at a pair of sneakers actually

(05:00):
a new launch, you have no comparison, So you can
go ahead and price up your new innovation and the
customer may not even recognize that there was a material
price increase, and that customer has a little bit more
flexibility to stretch their wallets at that price point.

Speaker 3 (05:14):
Pam, if you are heading up on Holdings or Adidas
or Sketchers or you know, any of the Hoka, what
would you be thinking looking at this set of results.

Speaker 4 (05:25):
So Sketchers, I think is in a different league than Nike.
It's a little bit different. It's a value play, and
I think they don't compete directly like an Adidas or
an On or a Hoka would with them. Adidas is
doing really well on its franchise lifestyle shoes, and I
think Nike, what you've heard, was doing well in performance.
So two still very distinct categories. Though for On and Hoka,

(05:48):
I think it's a little bit of a different story
because Running was back on It's doing phenomenally well and
that is where hogaing On both took share from Nike.
So I would be just, you know, a little concerned
and just make sure that I keep my game on
when it comes to innovation, because at the end of
the day, product is what's going to drive how sales
momentum will go moving forward.

Speaker 3 (06:10):
Our thanks to Punam goy Alva, senior US e Commerce
and retail analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
We move next to some news in the media and
entertainment space. This week, we heard that Spotify CEO Daniel
Eck is stepping down after two decades at the company.

Speaker 3 (06:23):
Spotify will leave the leadership of the music streaming company
in the hands of two trusted executives, their Gustaf Soderstrom,
Chief Product and Technology Officer and Alex Norstrom, chief business Officer.
This move will go into effect on January first.

Speaker 2 (06:36):
For more, we were joined by Githa Rang and Athen,
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst on US Media. Well first asked Githa
to explain why CEO Daniel Ck stepping down.

Speaker 6 (06:44):
Now, this is, you know, one of your classic cases
of the founder finally kind of establishing a really good
transition plan and handing it off to his you know,
to lieutenants here. So we're having a co CEO structure.
And really, I mean the first when I heard this,
I mean, this really kind of hearkens back to what
Reed Hastings did with Netflix, you know, kind of left

(07:05):
right at the peak, right when the companies, you know,
everything was kind of you know, all cylinders were firing
away and left it to Greg Peters and Ted Sorrandos
to kind of take charge, and it seems like Spotify
is in a very similar position. So they had a
couple of things that had to get done this year,
which was new contracts with all of the music labels.

(07:25):
It looks like Daniel Eck has you know, accomplished all
of that, and I think he's really kind of left
the company in a good position for for its next
phase of growth. And this is really, you know, a
huge story in the internet space, the possibility to get
to a billion users very very quickly. They already have
about seven hundred million.

Speaker 3 (07:44):
Okay, so there are almost three quarters of the way there.
He's leaving on top as George Costanza wood in Seinfeld.
But my question, Keita is you talk about the new
phase of growth, how much of that will rely on
continued price increases. Unlike Paul, I do subscribe, and it's
alarming how frequently the price changes come.

Speaker 6 (08:04):
Yeah, and it is going to keep coming, Scariot, There's
absolutely no doubt about it. I mean, this whole story
is kind of predicated on those price increases. Remember though,
that they never took up prices for the first ten
to twelve years, and then it started coming fast and furious.

Speaker 7 (08:20):
Right.

Speaker 6 (08:20):
We had one price increase in twenty twenty three, another
in twenty twenty four, We're going to have probably another
one in twenty twenty six. But if you kind of
look at all of the streaming services out there, you know,
Spotify is of course the leader in audio streaming. They
have a thirty five percent global market share in terms
of subscribers. You kind of look at their price, Let's
say in the US, it's twelve dollars for an individual plan.
You compare that to let's say the video leader Netflix. Again,

(08:43):
I go back to the Netflix example, They're priced at
eighteen dollars. So I think Spotify still has quite a
lot of runway when you kind of compare it to
the rest of the field. And the other thing that
I like to point out here is when you're kind
of subscribing to an audio service, it's typically only one
service that you're subscribing to, as opposed to a video service.
I think people really like their you know, if they
like Spotify, they're absolutely going to hold on to it

(09:04):
at any cost. And the other thing is, you know,
Spotify is adding new features all the time, so they
are like really getting down on you know, monetizing more
and more, but it's not They are innovating also constantly,
so I think I think people don't mind paying for it.

Speaker 2 (09:22):
What's the biggest challenge to them on the cost side
of the business.

Speaker 6 (09:25):
KEITHA music royalty is all. I mean, that's you know,
for every dollar that they make, they're paying out about
seventy cents in terms of musical royalties back to the labels.
So it is definitely a very you know, from that perspective,
the model is hard. But one of the things that
they've done very well is, you know, they've obviously renegotiated

(09:46):
a lot of the deals kind of try to provide
investors with a lot more visibility into the cost space.
But more importantly for them, they're really trying to go
away from you know, licensed content to more owned content,
so kind of going into you know, podcasts, going to
more non music content, where again they have a lot
more leverage, you know, whether it's audiobooks, whether it's video podcasts,

(10:09):
getting away from you know, just being a core music
service to more of kind of an global kind of
an audio service, and they're doing that really well, and
that's going to help them with their margin expansion story
as they get better unit economics right.

Speaker 3 (10:22):
And introducing premium tiers on top of that you have
to unlock in order to unlock some of the more
I don't know, high profile podcasts, you then have to
pay extra. Keith talk a little bit about AI because
I keep reading about how AI generated music is a challenge,
but in what way? And could it actually become an
opportunity as well for Spotify?

Speaker 6 (10:43):
I think so. I think it is going to become,
you know, an opportunity as we go. They're already actually
using you know, a lot of AI features when it
comes to curation, you know, when it comes to music discovery,
when it comes to providing better features, and they're already
and you just brought up the super premium tier and
a lot of that is actually going to be having
like an AIDJ type of a feature there, you know,

(11:07):
for both listeners as well as music creators. So I
think it is definitely going to be you know, a
good opportunity for them to present a much better product.
I mean, we've already seen AI being used by a
lot of the other platforms. Again, I go back to
Netflix because they've done this really well in terms of
you know, having a much better algorithm now to serve
up better content. And I think that's exactly what Spotify

(11:28):
is doing in terms of its playlists as well.

Speaker 2 (11:30):
Where's Apple in this audio game?

Speaker 6 (11:34):
So just in terms of subscribers share, Paul, I mean Spotify,
as I said, leads with about thirty five percent share
of the market. Apple is really far behind. They have
about a ten percent share, so very very hard for
them to catch up in terms of in terms of
subscribers at least.

Speaker 3 (11:49):
Are Thanks to Getha Rong and Aathan, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts
on US Media coming up a look at why the
video game maker Electronic Arts has agreed to sell itself
to a group of investors.

Speaker 2 (11:58):
You're listening to Bloomberg and Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing
in depth research and data on two thousand companies and
one hundred and thirty industries.

Speaker 3 (12:05):
You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bigo on the terminal.
I'm Scarlet Foo and.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
I'm Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg.

Speaker 1 (12:15):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 2 (12:22):
We move next to the electronic gaming space.

Speaker 3 (12:25):
This week, the video game maker Electronic Arts or, EA
agreed to sell itself to a group of investors. They
include a firm managed by Jared Kushner and Saudi Arabia's
Sovereign Wealth Fund.

Speaker 2 (12:35):
The deal values EA at about fifty five billion dollars,
with the investors agreeing to pay two hundred and ten
dollars per share in cash. This makes it the largest
leverage buyout on record.

Speaker 3 (12:45):
For more, we were joined by Nathan Natu Bloomberg Intelligence
Technology Research Analysts.

Speaker 2 (12:49):
We first asked Nathan to break down the EA's recent valuation.

Speaker 7 (12:53):
The valuation is at a twenty to thirty percent premium
versus the last three quorder market cab before this deal
was now and it seems like, you know, it is
a premium deal, but actually, you know, EA has a
lot going for it. It is actually launching a new
batterfield game, and there's a strong prospect for this game.

(13:14):
And actually the game is now in prely release, and
even then, he has already smashed all prior records set
by the biggest game in that genre, and that genre
is first person should and that game that's dominated that
genre is called Duty from Microsoft. So Betterview six is
looking to be a successful launch. And next year we
have FIFA and obviously we know that EA has the

(13:36):
biggest soccer game in the industry, and that's FIFA. What
was called FIFA but now it's called EA Sports FC.
And next year FIFA World Cup will be a special
one because it will be hosted across three cities, including
the US, and if people don't know, US is actually
the biggest market in terms of revenue for all kinds
of sports games. So that's the second thing going for

(13:56):
EA that I think it's going to lead to at
least two round circumstensus beat on EPs share. So I
think for e A, this is a this is actually
a good deal, and we can talk about the common
struggles faced by you know, game publishers and how these
deals would make sense for e A as well as
the the investors in this context.

Speaker 3 (14:18):
So yeah, let's do that because you mentioned a bunch
of the titles and these are you know, very valuable franchises.
These this is a top quality ip, whether it's E
Sports FC, madd in NFL, the SIMS battlefield. What does
ownership by private equity, by private investors allow e A
to do that it can't do as a publicly traded company.

Speaker 7 (14:39):
I think it's all down to funds. So publishers. Game
publishers in general have been have been facing two struggles.
First one is gamers attention spend and playtime are increasingly
getting limited. The reason is people are sticking to brands
or franchises that they have played for a long time.
And in fact, new Zoo published data saying that a

(15:00):
percent of playtime tend to go back to the sixty
or so titles, leaving only eight percent of playtime for
brand new IP. And this is actually in favor of
EA because we mentioned those valuable IP. In fact, if
we look at global unit sales, EA has topped twenty
has four of those top twenty selling IP globally, he

(15:22):
has four out of the twenty. So that is actually
a pretty enticing deal thing for companies like private equity
because you know, profit generation is key, and what this
means that is that EA has franchises that can bring
in recurring revenue. We talked about EA Sports FC, we
talk about MED and MFL and they actually revived a

(15:42):
new franchise, College Football, and you know, it was one
of the best selling titles in the US last year.
So recurring revenue is key here. And the second struggle
that I was going to go into is development cost
is really high, especially in the US, So that means
that we publishers actually have a cost is advantage when
compared to Eastern developers. For example, you know, salaries for

(16:04):
game engineers in China is more than half the level
in California, and personnel cost game engineers is a huge
part of developing a game. So you know, tens and
actually launched a new game in the same genre as
Better Few six and that's Deltalk Force is doing really well.
And what that costs disadvantage is stopping EA from is

(16:27):
continuously to push out a stronghalence of content to essentially
extending the shelf life of any game, and Eastern developers
can do that better because of that cost edge.

Speaker 3 (16:38):
Our thanks to Nathan Native, Bloomberg Intelligence technology research analyst.

Speaker 2 (16:42):
We move next to some news in the energy industry.

Speaker 3 (16:44):
This week, the energy company Exon Mobile said it plans
to cut about two thousand jobs globally as part of
its long term restructuring plan.

Speaker 2 (16:51):
The reductions represent about three to four percent of Xcellon's
global workforce and are part of the company's ongoing efficiency drive.

Speaker 3 (16:58):
For the analysis, we're joined by Vincent Pas, Bloomberg Intelligence,
senior equity research analyst of oil and gas.

Speaker 2 (17:03):
First ask Vincent for his take on this Exon news.

Speaker 8 (17:07):
Well, I think it's part of managing through the cycle.
Right in prior cycles, the sector was exposed to more
extreme volatility, higher highs, lower lows. The industry is trying
to manage through what seems to be a rather clouded
backdrop right now. So we're sitting here and you got

(17:31):
NAT gas somewhere around three point thirty Henry Hubb. You
got WTI in the low sixties. You have OPEC bringing
back on capacity and maybe even speeding up that capacity.

Speaker 6 (17:43):
Ads.

Speaker 8 (17:43):
You have a more clouded, broader economic backdrop across the globe.
You have geopolitical issues, so lots of uncertainty, and not
only Exon. Exon's probably going to cut somewhere about two
three four percent of its global workforce, its affiliate a
much more substantial cut, roughly about twenty percent over the

(18:05):
next two years or so. You're seeing it at Conico Phillips,
You're seeing it at Chevron, even BP, the major European
energy conglomerate. You're seeing it across the board. And so Paul,
as you know, when you're not growing revenue, right, you're
not getting the revenue increase on price, you're not growing
production because your investor base does not want to see

(18:26):
that production growth. You are looking at very steady revenue,
maybe even declining revenue. You have to manage that netback
from the cost perspective, and you have to support that
cash flow stream. And so you're doing it via these
cost cuts over a number of years too, maybe even
three years, to sort of bring that cost structure in

(18:47):
line with a new reality of uncertainty in the marketplace,
to reduce that volatility.

Speaker 3 (18:52):
Well, there's cost cuts, and then there's exon mobiles cost cuts.
Since twenty nineteen, it's trimmed thirteen and a half billion
dollars in annual cost That is more than all the
other big oil companies combined. How much more room is
there for Exxon to slash expenses.

Speaker 8 (19:07):
Well, it bought Pioneer, so it has a relatively sizable workforce.
In general, it doesn't necessarily mean that those cuts are
going to come there, but there are ways you cut
you gain efficiency. In this technological era where we have
advancements across the energy value chain. You will consistently and

(19:30):
continually seek out ways to get efficiency, to bring down
that cost structure and to bring unit costs in line
with a very anemic outlook for global energy prices in general,
and also a very clouded outlook for the global economy too.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
So Vince kind of looking out, you know, one in
two years, what is the view of the companies you
talk to about energy prices, oil and gas? Is it
still going to be a challenge market here?

Speaker 8 (20:00):
It looks like it. It looks like it's going to
be a very challenge market, especially for the WTI side,
for the oil side of the equation. On natural gas, Paul,
I know you and I have talked about this numerous times.
You have a structural growth trajectory for natural gas here
in the US via export LNG, whether it's seaborne energy
or whether it's pipeline gas into Mexico to help fuel

(20:24):
their economy as well.

Speaker 9 (20:26):
You have the AI build out, which will be a
which will digest significant amounts of energy, and that's beneficial
for natural gas.

Speaker 8 (20:36):
But on the oil side, you have very anemic growth.
You have your transportation fuels having to compete with alternative
and renewable fuels, so there's a greater competition there. The
growth trajectory and the outlook for the demand side on
the liquid fuels seems to be very clouded and seems

(21:00):
to be somewhat less secure relative to the natural gas
side of the house.

Speaker 3 (21:06):
Our thanks to Vincent Piazza, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior equity research
analyst on oil and gas.

Speaker 2 (21:11):
Staying with energy, Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out a report
on its outlook for nuclear power in twenty twenty six.

Speaker 3 (21:17):
It's titled AI driven Power Demand set to spark three
hundred and fifty billion dollar build cycle. This deep dive
describes why nuclear remains a favorite power source for artificial intelligence.

Speaker 2 (21:27):
For more, we were joined by Scott Levine, Bloomberg Intelligence
senior Energy Services Analysts. I first asked Scott to talk
about what the energy industry is doing to prepare for
what seems to be an insatiable need for power.

Speaker 10 (21:38):
Nuclear really has two very big positives going for it.
Number One, it's a emissions free power source, and the
hyperscillers that are really behind the investments care about that deeply, right,
and so they've favored, you know more renewable sources heretofore

(21:59):
like when in solar, But what those lack are you know,
twenty four by seven base load characteristics and for a
data center to be up twenty four to seven, that's
not going to do it right. So nuclear checks both
of those boxes, and those are two very big positives
and the reasons that you're seeing folks like Microsoft and

(22:20):
Meta come out in favor of nuclear power.

Speaker 2 (22:23):
And yeah, so what's the how much does nuclear provide
today in the US versus where you think it might
be in twenty five years.

Speaker 10 (22:31):
Yeah, so today it's a little bit below twenty percent
of the grid, which we're saying we'll return to about
in our you know, base case scenario twenty percent of
the grid by twenty fifty. That may not seem like
much two percentage points, right, but it you know, will
equate to or amount to a three hundred and fifty
billion dollar investment.

Speaker 11 (22:51):
To get there.

Speaker 10 (22:51):
So those are big numbers. And in addition that, we're
talking about adding sixty some odd gigawatts to the grid,
and you can think about each full sized nuke being
one gigawatt, so that's basically building sixty generating units as
our base case. So those are big numbers to get
you from eighteen to twenty percent over a twenty five

(23:13):
period of time.

Speaker 2 (23:14):
I tell you, I went in this report that you
and your team put together Section five Small modular reactors.
That's where I wanted to go to because.

Speaker 9 (23:20):
I had that.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
We've had some people come into the studio over the
last few years and just talk to us about the
science and engineering and the possibilities to be small modular reactors.
Tell us what they are and what role they could
play going forward.

Speaker 10 (23:32):
Yeah, so really these are and none of these have
been built in the US yet, right, So this is
very much an emerging technology play. But basically you're talking
about is taking a full sized nuke. You're driving down
the highway. You see a big, cool tower, a bunch
of smoke coming out the top of it. These are
much much smaller, right, and so the idea here would
be that these are much more flexible, and so if

(23:54):
you have more disparate data centers located throughout the country,
you can power these and with these smaller units. Right,
And we're talking about you know, some of these are
smaller versions of what's already in operation today, which is
a light water reactor. And then some of these types
of units are different types of technologies. You have gas

(24:16):
cooled reactors as opposed to water, you have molten salt
cooled reactors as opposed to water, and these use different
types of technologies, different types of fuels still remain to
be licensed improven.

Speaker 2 (24:30):
So a lot of it's very.

Speaker 10 (24:31):
Much on the com But the technology in each of
those areas holds promise, so we'll see, and each of
them has pros and cons right, and so we'll see
over the next five years the technology shakeout and see
which ones end up being at the top of the
stack for the US. But each of them have a

(24:52):
lot of money behind them and a lot of support
from a lot of depocketed players.

Speaker 3 (24:57):
Our thanks to Scott Levine, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior Energy Star
VERSUS analyst, coming up a look at why the cruise
company Carnival raised its full year earnings forecast.

Speaker 2 (25:05):
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in
research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred
and thirty industries.

Speaker 3 (25:11):
You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bigo on the terminal.

Speaker 2 (25:14):
I'm Scarlet Foo and I'm Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg.

Speaker 1 (25:26):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 2 (25:32):
We moved to some news in the tech space this week.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
We heard that the AI cloud computing startup core Weave
has signed a deal to supply Meta with as much
as fourteen point two billion dollars worth of computing power.

Speaker 2 (25:43):
As part of the deal, core Weave will provide Meta
with access to Nvidia's latest GB three hundred AI chips.

Speaker 3 (25:49):
So for more, we were joined by Honor A. Rana,
Bloomberg Intelligence tech analyst. We first asked anaog how this
deal benefits core.

Speaker 11 (25:55):
Weave corviv is basically is a is a company that
takes all these GPUs and rents it out to people
for whatever they want to use. So they do get
the dips on the most latest equipment that is sold
by Nvidia, and then the clients can And now I
did show that Meta is buying directly from Nvidia as well,

(26:16):
but in this case they're just going and outsourcing the
entire infrastructure for an amount of fourteen billion dollars, which
you know may be a very small piece of it
has overall capex for AI infrastructure, but it's still a
start that they are now leasing capacity rather than building
it in house.

Speaker 2 (26:32):
So how should we think about this in the overall
growth of AI. I mean, this feels like incremental spending
to me, but I'm not sure if it's just shifted
somewhere else. Do you when you see announcements like this
from core we've how do you kind of welded in
or you know, kind of weave it into the larger picture.

Speaker 11 (26:48):
So every company, every hyperscale cloud provider right now, you know,
whether that's Microsoft or whether that's Meta or any other
company that's out there that is spending a lot on
capital expenditures, on spending their AI capabilities. They have two options.
They can either build it themselves and they can go
to a specialized vendor like core Weave and rent it
from them or lease it from them. Microsoft has said

(27:10):
that they are really into expanding their leasing capacity or
capabilities down the road, which is good for companies like
core Weave. Their job is to build this only this
infrastructure and rent it out to whoever wants it.

Speaker 3 (27:23):
My other question when it comes to core Weave, and
you know all this, all these deals it's making with
these cloud providers, is that they're also raising a lot
of money. Core Weave is tapping the debt market, or
there's there's there's expectations that it may tap the debt market.
Is there going to be enough demand to meet, you

(27:44):
know what, what it wants to sell.

Speaker 11 (27:48):
So here is the case. When it comes to a
customer like Microsoft or Meta, which all of us know
have a lot of cash flow coming in. If they
have signed let's say a five year deal, seven a deal,
you kind of know that the money is good. It's
much easier to raise capital. Then then let's say from
a brand new company that may not have that amount
of cash flow coming in. So I would say, I mean,
you would you know, one should not be concerned that

(28:10):
Meta is not good for that money. I don't think
that's going to be, you know a concern for anybody
who's giving them the bonds of their debt for that Yeah.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
Meta raised twenty nine billion dollars in a financing package
for a massive data center in Louisiana. Oracle raise eighteen
billion dollars in bonds as it builds infrastructure for Open AI.
So the markets are open for this kind of trade.

Speaker 5 (28:30):
It seems like yeah, apparently they are.

Speaker 3 (28:33):
And the other thing with Corewave, of course is that
it has an increased commitment from open AI. It's got
this big customer in Microsoft I think makes up seventy
one percent of its revenue. How diversified is Corewave's customer
base right now?

Speaker 11 (28:48):
See when you see the core piece's first biggest customer
was Microsoft. Microsoft didn't have the capacity to run a
lot of their AI workloads, so they went to Corewave. So,
you know, frankly speaking, I understand that's seventy percent. But
you know, this is an area where everybody needs capacity,
so you know, for us it is an issue, but
it's not like, you know, it's not a deal breaker
when it comes to the quality or even you look

(29:09):
at the fundamentals of somebody like a Corevieve. Now what's
happening is other cloud providers are going to them and say,
whatever access capacity that you have, you know, we will
take that as well.

Speaker 2 (29:18):
Are there other companies that are going to come public
here like core weave, these neo cloud companies.

Speaker 11 (29:25):
Yeah, I mean, I'm sure a lot of them are
caring up for it. Coreweve is probably the biggest one
that's out there, you know, We saw Microsoft signing another
deal recently with the Nebius, I believe, and you know
that was a very similar arrangement where Microsoft is going
to them and saying, Okay, for the next several years,
this is the kind of money that I or the
capacity that I want from you, and this is how

(29:48):
I'm going to give you the money to fund it.

Speaker 3 (29:50):
Basically, So an RAG when you look at these kinds
of deals and you know, fourteen billion dollars here, ten
billion dollars somewhere else, what gets your attention in terms
of you know, I need to look into this a
little bit more versus this is just one in a
long string of deals that these companies will continue to sign.

Speaker 11 (30:09):
The biggest thing you want to think about is what
are these companies doing these deals for. So, say somebody
like a Microsoft, are they giving a lot of their
inference workloads or the outcome of chart GPT running on
Microsoft's cloud workloads, or are they giving model training workloads?
Because there is a there is a there is a
narrative out there in the market that the long tail

(30:31):
of the AI revenue comes from people using apps, which
we you know, think of this as infriance revenue. Compared
to the model training revenue, which make ups and down
depending on what kind of technological advancement we see in
you know, software development.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
Our Thanks Dona rod Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analysts.

Speaker 3 (30:49):
We move next to the cruise industry, the cruise company
Carnival this week raising it's full year earnings forecast.

Speaker 2 (30:55):
Carnival cited a record pace for forward bookings and improving
net yields, but shares of the company felt after the news.

Speaker 3 (31:01):
For more on this, we were joined by Brian Egger,
Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Gaming and Lodging Analysts.

Speaker 2 (31:06):
First, Brian, why investors see Carnival's earnings forecast as conservative?

Speaker 12 (31:10):
I think there are two ways in which maybe they're
being perceived as conservative. The one is that their yield
growth guidance for the fourth quarter, while it's certainly very
solid in there in the mid fores, you know, with
a little bit below consensus, maybe the street got a
little bit heav itself. The second thing is, for all
their optimism about bookings and direction of yields, they are

(31:32):
very conservative and how they're deploying capital. They've only got
about one percent annual yield growth for this year in
the next two years. So they're growing very effectively, but
they are also very measured in how they deploy capacity.
So all this is really good, but they do mention
that you know, they can afford to they can really
be judicious on expense growth because they're only growing capacity
at a very modest pace.

Speaker 3 (31:54):
Is that a bad thing to be conservative? How does
Carnival compare with Norwegian or Royal Caribbean.

Speaker 12 (31:59):
Yeah, so if you look at Norwegian World Caribbean, they're
anticipating or actually scheduling about a mid single digit, call
it five percent ish level of annual capacity growth for
twenty twenty six, twenty seven to twenty eight. You know,
it's closer to one percent for Carnival, maybe two percent
in twenty twenty eight. So they're just taking a more
conservative tack. And I think they're equally long term optimistic

(32:22):
about their ability to penetrate the vacation market, but they're
going about it in a much more measured way. And
then that sense it could strike people as conservative.

Speaker 2 (32:29):
Talk to us about capacity. I mean, if they added
a couple of ships, would they sell them out?

Speaker 11 (32:33):
Yeah?

Speaker 12 (32:34):
I mean certainly, their their auquancy is back to pre
pandemic levels. Their yell growth against that capacity increase is positive,
and we were looking at we've seen steadily increasing yield
expectations throughout twenty twenty five and they've got the free
cash leot But I think they just want to build
this out slowly, you know, and maybe strike people some
people as being too slowly.

Speaker 2 (32:54):
Hey, not for nothing. The CEO get paid a lot
of money here, Josh Weinstein. Fourteen million in cash vitation
for Countary. You're twenty four to fourteen million in stock
twenty eight million to drive a cruise ship round. That's
not too bad.

Speaker 5 (33:05):
Nice job if you can get it right.

Speaker 3 (33:07):
So here's my question to you, Brian, how do Royal
Caribbean or arrange and cruise and Carnival?

Speaker 5 (33:12):
How do they grow their market?

Speaker 3 (33:14):
Are they stealing from each other or is there still
a big base from which to grow.

Speaker 12 (33:18):
There's definitely a penetration oportunity. I mean, just back up
for a second on Carnival. You know their goal is
to become investment grade. So part of the conservativism I
think you're seeing, which may be a headscratch, want to
get an investment grade, and I think that's probably priority one.
Shifting some of the enterprise value from bondholders to equity holders.
That being said, yes, they see opportunity to grow a

(33:38):
relatively underpenetrated overall vacation market, but they're going about it
with kind of balance sheet being front center if that
helps it all.

Speaker 2 (33:48):
The only thing I know about the cruise business is
what I learned from Disney, who got into the business
fifteen twenty years ago, and it's been a great business
for them. How do you stratify the cruise market? Now,
I'm going to be the very very top, but how
does the cruise industry kind of stratify itself?

Speaker 12 (34:03):
Yeah, I mean I think they, I think convincingly argue
that they are relatively affordable form of vacations, the package product.
The value is very good for the consumer, but it
runs across different tiers from luxury side you know, Seaborn,
wind Star Oceania Region seven Seas to the more mass
market like Carnival Cruise Line, So they run the gamut,

(34:25):
but the overall spectrum tends to be generally, you know,
relatively affordable and part of that package vacation product people
buying cruises beforehand, buying stuff on the cruise. With a
good share of wallet left over that works to their favor.

Speaker 5 (34:39):
How brand loyal are cruising fans?

Speaker 3 (34:42):
I mean, if you are a Carnival person, are you
a Carnival person for life?

Speaker 12 (34:45):
Yeah, there's certainly some brand loyalty. And remember they've they've
got kind of as an industry. They've companies got two goals.
One is to drive bookings for their particular brand, and
they do that through new hardware with all the bells
and whistles. The other is to drive the overall awareness
of the value of cruising relative to other forms of vacationing.
And so you know, they've kind of got that dual mandate.

Speaker 2 (35:08):
So you're sitting on the Jersey Shore Sunday after in
around five.

Speaker 5 (35:11):
So you're Sweeney's sitting on there. Okay, go ahead, all this.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
Every Sunday during the summer, you'd see this massive cruise
ship coming out of New York Harbor. I think it's
the Star of the Seas.

Speaker 12 (35:22):
Yeah, that's a new one.

Speaker 2 (35:23):
Yeah, I mean, things massive, and they filled that thing up.

Speaker 12 (35:26):
Oh just remember and that's a that's a Royal Caribbean ship.
But I will point out that one of the things
Carnival's pointing to is, you know they've reached the thirteen
percent return on invested capital this year, so they're kind
of getting to that double digit return base that they targeted.
So there are Their argument would be that they fill
it up, they get good pricing and relative that their
investments are getting you know, solid low teens or turns

(35:48):
on incremental invested capital with an opportunity to take that higher.
So as long as they can get that return, I
think they can convincingly say we're getting there. But obviously,
in the case of Carnival through relatively conservative capital to
point I.

Speaker 2 (36:01):
Mean Star of the Sea, Icon of the Seas, they
have a massive passenger capacity with the ability to hold
over seventy six hundred passengers and a large crew. And
for somebody who doesn't like people like me.

Speaker 12 (36:13):
That that's a tough it's not the miss anthrop's favorite
vacation activity. But you know, they do get good economies
by field peoples and.

Speaker 2 (36:22):
How big things.

Speaker 3 (36:23):
Well, I'm always talking with my friend who suggests that
instead of retiring to a nursing home or retirement community,
just go on a cruise trip.

Speaker 8 (36:29):
I've heard that.

Speaker 2 (36:29):
I've heard that too, you know, you know, it's a
big cruises Charlie Pellett and he doesn't like cruise the Caribbean.

Speaker 5 (36:35):
Hers cruises like adventurous places.

Speaker 2 (36:37):
Yeah, like I'm going to I'm cruising to Turkey and
I don't know Antarctica. Yes, that's what Charlie.

Speaker 12 (36:43):
People pair a premium for those. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (36:45):
Thanks sreic to Brian Egger, Bloomberg Intelligence senior Gaming and
Lodging analysts.

Speaker 2 (36:49):
That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio,
providing in research and data on two thousand companies in
one hundred and thirty industries.

Speaker 3 (36:56):
And of course you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b
I go on the terminal.

Speaker 2 (37:00):
I'm Scarlet Foo and I'll Paul Sweeney. Stay with us.
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