August 22, 2025 • 38 mins
Watch Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Hosts: Paul Sweeney and Lisa Mateo
On this podcast:
- Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Equity Analyst, Covering Retail, discusses TJX earnings.
- Deborah Aitken, Bloomberg Intelligence Luxury Goods Analyst, discusses Estee Lauder earnings.
- Jennifer Bartashus, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, Retail Staples & Packaged Food, discusses Target earnings.
- Drew Reading, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S Homebuilding Analyst, discusses Home Depot earnings.
- Matt Henricksson, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Medtech Analyst, discusses Medtronic earnings.
- Madison Muller, Bloomberg Health Reporter, discusses Novo Nordisk news.
- Ana Davies, BNEF's Head of Renewable Fuels, discusses renewable fuels.
Bloomberg Intelligence, the research arm of Bloomberg L.P., has more than 400 professionals who provide in-depth analysis on more than 2,000 companies and 135 industries while considering strategic, equity and credit perspectives. BI also provides interactive data from over 500 independent contributors. It is available exclusively for Bloomberg Terminal subscribers.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence
with Paul Sweeney.
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People are just buying everything with tex.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Bloomberg Intelligence with Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and
Bloomberg Originals.
Speaker 5 (00:42):
I'm Paul Sweeney and I'm Lisa Matteo filling in on
Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
On Today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big
business stories impacting Wall Street and at the global markets.
Speaker 5 (00:51):
Each and every week, we provide in depth research and
data on some of the two thousand companies and one
hundred and thirty industries our analysts cover worldwide.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Today you'll look at why retailer Target is naming an
insider as its next chief executive officer.
Speaker 5 (01:03):
Plus well look at why the Danish drug maker Novo
Nordisk is slashing the cause of its weight loss drug ozempic.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
First, we begin with the earning from TJX companies.
Speaker 5 (01:12):
This week, the off price retailer raised its full year
guidance and reported second quarter earnings that beat analyst projections.
It's a sign that shoppers are currently turning toward discounters
due to economic uncertainty.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
For more.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Guest hosts, Alexis Christophers and I were joined by Mary
Ross Gilbert Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail equity analysts. First asked
Mary for her take on the company's results.
Speaker 6 (01:33):
TJX is hitting it out of the park. This is
a company that just executes seamlessly and consistently, something in
retail that's very, very difficult to do. They saw strength
across all categories, across all income groups, all age groups,
and they know how to get the merchandise right by store,
by region, so they have a terrific planning and allocation.
(01:56):
They sort of emphasize that and another key point because
they raise their guidance not only for sales but also
on the margin side. And there was such a huge
fear with terraffs. They only source probably less than ten
percent of their sales come for their merchandise is something
they directly source. They were able to buy better, which
means they got better deals. That means there's so much
(02:19):
availability out there, and it's something we've observed in our
channel checks and when you look at the shopping halls
on television, on a YouTube and you see the incredible
brands that are available, and they really are across good,
better and best. So you can get anything from Puma, Audi, Doos,
Nike all the way up to Eve, Saint Laurent and Gucci.
(02:44):
So it's and TJX really really wins across all that,
so strength across you know, all their channels and internationally,
I mean Canada was a nine percent comp sales.
Speaker 7 (02:59):
I want to ask about a possible headwind though, because
it seems like they're firing on all cylinders. But I
know that TJX mentioned in the past about a key demographic,
the Hispanic customer. They were concerned that maybe immigration policy
was going to keep them home or not spend as much.
Did they mention anything about that.
Speaker 6 (03:17):
I don't think they saw any weakness as a result
of that. I know it's been a big concern not
only for TJX, as you brought up Alexai, but also
for Ross and for Burlington, and probably even more so
for Burlington because they really skew to a lower income
consumer and they're due to report next week, and so
we should learn more on that.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Mary, I always think the job of a retail animals
like you was really tough because not only do you
have to do the regular stuff as an analyst, like
get the earnings estimates kind of right and on the
financial analysis, but you kind of have to have an
opinion on like who's good at picking out the right
fashion to even put in the store in the first place.
What is TJX doing so well? Do you think?
Speaker 5 (04:00):
Well, they have.
Speaker 6 (04:02):
The most amazing buying team, and so they spend they
have sort of like a buying academy where they teach
their buyers. You know, they have to go through you know,
I think it's like three years, maybe even up to
seven years of work that they do with these buyers.
So the pricing that they work on and the product
(04:24):
that they're buying is really something that is steeped in
experience history. They also invest in systems, you know, so
that means technology logistics to make sure that they can
get this all right. Because you can imagine that if
they're shipping multiple merchandise, you got to have fresh drops
(04:46):
because these customers will shop multiple times a week because
it's that freshness that brings them in. So yes, TJX
is the leader. They're the largest in the world. I mean,
they'll probably hit sixty billion in revenue this year, up
from fifty six billion last year. And they keep increasing
the number of potential store openings they see. Previously they
(05:08):
said we think we have another twelve hundred stores to open.
Now they're saying it's another eighteen hundred stores to open
around the country, just around the globe in their existing markets.
So yes, this company really has the expertise in doing
it right. Is there a digital strategy here because I
remember I'm sure you do too, Mary, when you would
(05:29):
go online to try to find out what tjmax had
and there was nothing there because you always had to
go in the store to find out what they had.
I think they had to step up their game right
because of Amazon and others online. But what is the
digital strategy, if anything, at Tjmax and TJX. That's a
good question. So actually TJX has a digital strategy. It's
(05:50):
across all their brands except for home goods, and so
it's about I think it's I think it's just under
five percent of sales. So it's very small. But they
also saw strength in this quarter on their e comm business.
So they do have an e comm business. You can
go on it and you can shop anything you want
on there. Now you can't say that you want to
(06:12):
shop by brand, but you can select. Let's say, let's
say that you want to just buy the ultra luxe
you know, merchandise that they have there, and you'll see
Christian de or sunglasses. You'll see you know, like I mentioned,
you know, on the handbag size Balan Chiaga. So you
will be able to find what you want on the
(06:33):
high end, also on the low end, but you'll have
to do it by price points, by sorting that way,
because they're not allowed to necessarily have that ability to
sort by brands. So you will see they have a
robust online business, you know, and it's around the globe. Now,
the key is that they're a key differentiated in that regard.
(06:54):
Remember that it's still very small, and that the vast
majority of their sales, you know, more like ninety six
percent or so, are being generated in store, but nobody
else in off price other.
Speaker 7 (07:06):
Than the rack.
Speaker 6 (07:08):
The Nordstorm rack has e commerce capabilities all the rest
it's strictly a bricks and mortar model.
Speaker 5 (07:15):
Our thanks to Mary Ross, Gilbert Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail
equity analyst. We move next to news from the cosmetics
company es Day Lauder. This week, the company issued a
weak profit outlook for its fiscal year. S Day Lauder
said it was weighed down by sluggish demand for high
end goods and an escalating trade war for more guestos.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Alexis, Christopherus and I were joined by Debate and Bloomberg
Intelligence luxury goods analysts. We first asked deb what she
took away from s day latter's earnings.
Speaker 8 (07:41):
They're doing well out of the US improve in there.
Numbers for the full year are still done, but you
could see sequential improvement by end of year, and also
somewhat less soft in China. But for them where they
still have so much exposure in Asia and still particularly
(08:01):
in travel retail, inventories to me still look stuffed, even
though if I think about travel retail overall, it's fifteen
percent of their business now it was near thirty percent
four years ago, and they're losing about four points of
growth annually. For me, when I look at the inventory
data over two hundred days versus one ninety, it still
(08:23):
says that there's risk there for me. So they need
to write size Asia. They need to do more in
getting out of main stores in the US. They're doing
a lot positively on things like Amazon Beauty and in
Asia on TikTok, but it's all moving onlines. It's the
third of their business online, a lot going on, a
(08:43):
lot of cost savings, cost cutting, and very low on margin.
You know, and that the company has actually taken away.
Quarterly guidance and forecast for EPs on the full year
are six cents below the two sixteen is expected by
consensus two ten on guidance at the top end is
(09:05):
already a little bit below. So shares a week again
on the back of a couple of years of underperformance.
Speaker 7 (09:13):
You no, dev definitely has you just laid out a
few tough years for this legacy brand. But explain to
me why there were some upgrades recently. I was surprised
to see Deutsche Bank HSBC upgrading from whole to buy.
You got JPM upgrading to overweight. What do they see
here that maybe others on Wall Street are not.
Speaker 8 (09:31):
I think, especially as we've headed through the last couple
of quarters, you can see that there are share gains,
market share gains in some categories in some countries, so
Japan positively, some parts of China by the end positively,
some categories in the US positively as well. And there
are very easy comps that they will cycle through in
(09:53):
the next year ahead, and certainly under the CEO and
the CFO, there feels just a lot more entum and
energy to come. So I think that's what the market
are buying into, as well as the underperformance that we've seen.
But we must remember in terms of them being competitive
and what they're doing, they talk about a solid double
(10:14):
digital just the EBIT margin, you know, this will will
back their investment and then being in front of the consumer,
their innovation pipeline and others. They're only eight percent of
the end of fiscal twenty twenty five and they say
they get to a double double digitald just a EBIT
margin over the next few years. That to me says
(10:35):
they're still a bumpy ride. So I understand why why
those quarterly numbers have gone right.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Hey, deb sde Lauder said, the terriff's going to cost
them about one hundred million dollars to profitability this year.
What do you what are some of the luxury companies,
the brands that you follow. Are they taking these terriff
costs into their p and L or they're trying to
pass them along to customers.
Speaker 8 (10:59):
What's been the strategy for Yeah, and certainly for the
very high end. We saw even at the beginning of
the year pre tariff announcements. The very high end like
MS would say, because the wage costs and others, we'll
be looking at five to six percent price increases, start
to passing those through the beginning of the year, and
(11:19):
then in May when the spring summer collections came through.
They then have commented generally for the luxury space, and
from the work we've done that some may need up
to four five percent price to be passed through, and
the plan is that they pass most of it through.
I don't think very much of it goes up put
down the supply chain, and it's going to be done
(11:40):
gradually in some categories rather than you know, some completely
pass it through more visibly than others. And some will
struggle more. And then we heard the news from Switzerland
with the thirty nine percent tariff, So companies like Swatch
for US will find it difficult. Companies like I still
it's not every brand that is resonating with the consumer
(12:03):
will find it difficult in some brands in some categories.
So that's why I think we wait quart by quarter
and across the rest of the year to see what
companies do need to take a little bit of that
on board. But most of them are finding cost cutting
as part of that, and certainly on the gross we
did see for full years forty basis points improvement on
gross margin for US to order with a little bit
(12:25):
of that tariff impact mixed in there, and that they're
expecting further gross margin improvement in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 5 (12:33):
All right, thanks a Debic and Bloomberg Intelligence Luxury goods analysts.
Coming up, I'll look at earnings from the world's largest
home improvement retailer, home Depot.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in
depth research and data on two thousand companies and one
hundred and thirty industries.
Speaker 5 (12:47):
You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bi go on the terminal.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
I'm Lis Matheo and I'm Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
You're listening to Bloomberg and tell Legends with Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
I'm Paul Sweeney and I'm Lisa Matteo filling in on
Bloomberg Intelligence. We moved next to news from the merchandise
retailer Target.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
This week, Target named insider Michael Fidelki as its next
chief executive officer. Shares of Target fell after the appointment,
indicating that Wall Street had been hoping for an outsider
to take over the company's leadership.
Speaker 5 (13:21):
This all comes after the company reported second quarter earnings
that only narrowly surpass analysts expectations. Target also maintained its
outlook for the full year after slashing it a few
months back.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
For more guest hosts, Alexis Christopheros and I were joined
by Jen bartashis Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail analyst. We first
asked Jen for her take on the new CEO and
whether Target should have gone with an outsider.
Speaker 9 (13:42):
It's an interesting choice, and I think there are investors.
For a little while now, I've been interested in seeing
a CEO change Brian Cornell has done a great job
during his tenure, at least initially in terms of really
driving growth for Target. But an internal choice really implies
much of the same strategy, and I think there was
some hopes that there would be something a little different
(14:02):
and maybe shake things up and bring something new to
the company.
Speaker 7 (14:06):
You know, I'm wondering if Target is going through an
existential crisis right for this identity crisis because you feel like,
I don't know about upon and the last time you
went into a Target, Sure, but you feel like they've
lost their mojo, Jennifer, because the last time I was
in there, the store shelves were not stocked very well,
felt disorganized, couldn't find a sales associate to help me.
(14:27):
What does this new CEO have to do to help
this company get back on track. Well, you know, it's
very interesting. He's highlighted three priorities, but they're not really
new priorities. But if they can bring focus to it,
maybe that will help. And that's you know, re energizing
the assortment, bringing back some of that style and you
(14:48):
know value that people crave. It's about having a very good,
consistent in store execution. And experience, which is what you
were actually.
Speaker 9 (14:56):
Just talking about, having things in stock, having you know
you associates available. And then the third is an acceleration
in the deployment of technology to maybe you know, make
processes faster, improve efficiency, that sort of thing. So we'll
see if that, you know, if that happens. But it's
really about getting back to what is it that consumers
(15:17):
loved about Target and how do you get them back
in that frame of mind so that they come to
stores and spend there.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Well, you're the expitt here, like I don't have a
sense of what people go to Target for. What do
you think they go to Target for?
Speaker 9 (15:29):
Well, what they traditionally have gone to Target for was
that sense of discovery. Right, you had a couple of
things on your list, you got in and you were inspired.
You saw home decoration items that you just were like, oh,
that would look great in my living room. Or you
would go through apparel and you would see something very
stylish and you know value that you thought, oh, that's
a great thing to add to my basket. And so
(15:51):
that's what's a little bit missing. And part of that
may be because of just the rise in digital orders.
It's a less conducive to those impromptu purchases. But it's
also inspired by the assortment and by what people experience
when they're in the stores, and that's really where they
have to focus to get that magic back.
Speaker 7 (16:10):
And Jennifer correct me if I'm wrong. I think Target
has more exposure to tariffs than say, Walmart because of
its mix of products. It doesn't have as much exposure
to groceries as Walmart does, but it gets a lot
of its products from overseas places that are getting hit
by these tariffs. How did that play out in this
quarter and how will it play out going forward.
Speaker 9 (16:29):
Yeah, it's a great question, and it is one of
the things that's sort of been bogging down Target ever
since we've had very high food inflation. The willingness to
spend on discretionary categories has been a little bit more limited.
And that's really the area that Target has always excelled,
things like apparel and electronics and toys and home decor
(16:49):
and so you know, right now, the company is saying
they're doing a pretty good job of mitigating tariffs, but
they are more exposed because of the merchandise mix that
they have. They said they've done some right sizing. They've
they've paid off kind of the one time cancellation charges
they had while they were waiting on the terra verdicts.
We'll see what unfolds in third quarter, and especially because
(17:11):
it's back to school, which is a really important quarter
for Target.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
What's always well? I guess what's recently in the last
ten fifteen years really amazed me about Walmart is it
how's effective their digital strategy was, and they actually went
toe to toe with Amazon, and I think they more
than hold their own, not just about Target in their
digital strategy. How's that performing?
Speaker 9 (17:30):
Overall? Target's digital strategy has been doing pretty well. They've
done a They've made a conscious decision to not go
head to head with Walmart and Target. So, for example,
in their marketplace, it's not just an endless aisle of sellers.
They have a very close criteria of who they let
onto their platform and that's worked well for them because
it helps keep the product selection closer to what people
(17:51):
expect from Target. Their digital sales were up in terms
of same star sales this quarter, well uppaced the visit
visits to stores, and so they've been executing pretty well there.
It's just a matter of how do they marry the
two parts of the business to grow simultaneously.
Speaker 5 (18:08):
Aur Thanks to Jen Bartashi's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior retail analyst.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
We move next to news from the world's largest home
improvem in retail or home Depot.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
This week, Home Depot said sales return to growth in
the second quarter. This comes as shoppers invested in smaller
projects such as lighting and gardening.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
For more.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Lisa and I were joined by Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence
US home building analyst.
Speaker 5 (18:27):
We first asked Drew for his take on Home Depot's earnings.
Speaker 10 (18:30):
It was actually a pretty much inline quarter for home Depot.
Today comps up about one little shy consensus, but if
you back out some of the four X impact, it
was pretty much in line. Now. Of course, growth isn't
as strong as you would like to see, and a
lot of that, as you mentioned, has to do with
where rates are, both rates on home equity loans and
(18:51):
mortgage rates. You have to remember, housing turnover is at
the lowest level since the financial crisis, and what we've
heard consistently from Home Depot over the last quarters is
that consumers are pulling back on big ticket discretionary categories,
So think of things like kitchen and bathroom models are
flooring And the reason is because these tend to be
financed with that and with rates where they are, and
(19:13):
consumers with the expectation that rates are going to pull back,
they're taking a wait and see approach and deciding to
opt for their smaller ticket to projects instead.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Drew, What what does home depots say about terr risk
for them? How did they quantify for the street?
Speaker 10 (19:29):
Yeah, good question obviously on you know, top of mind
for a lot of investors. So home Depot has done
well to diversify that are sourcing over the last several years.
They get about fifty percent of their products from the US,
so they are in pretty good shape from that regard.
We would estimate, you know, products coming from China somewhere
around fifteen to twenty percent. And there's a couple of
(19:50):
ways that they're going to manage this. One, given the
scale that they have, they're able to push back against suppliers.
The second they continue to diversify their supply chain. On
their last quarter call, they mentioned that no single country
outside of the US will be more than ten percent
of sourcing. And then lastly, I think We're going to
start to see some selective price increases coming through in
(20:10):
the next several quarters. Now, they've done a little bit
of pre buy on the inventory side to make sure
that they had some of that lower cost product on
the shelves for consumers. But I think, you know, as
we get to the end of this year and into
next year, you're going to start to see a little
bit of pricing. Now, we wouldn't expect it to be
to be widespread or significant. Remember, home Depot sales about
(20:31):
thirty to forty thousand products on their shelves, so they
tend to take a portfolio approach and manage pricing really
across the entire project, rather than raising prices across the board.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
Sure, so are you telling me my next home Depot
run is going to be more expensive? It's going to
cost me more, Drew, I have painting, I have a
deck to build, I have things to do. I mean
you're saying this could take effect pretty soon.
Speaker 10 (20:54):
Well maybe not your next trip back, Okay, the next couple.
Maybe Looking more towards the end of this year or
into the next year, we would expect to see prices
up marginally.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
So I need to rush now, well, if consumers are
putting off those big projects, what are they focusing on?
I mean, is it the smaller ones or are they
just canceling projects altogether.
Speaker 10 (21:14):
Yeah, it tends to be more maintenance repair oriented, you know.
So there's there's projects around the house where things break
and you have to fix them immediately, or replacement products
for appliances and things of that nature. And again, what
we're not seeing is the big ticket discretionary of things
like like kitchen and bess that require financing.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
Our thanks to Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analyst.
Speaker 5 (21:38):
We move next to the medical device industry.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
This week, the medical device company Medtronic reported profit that
beat analyst expectations. The company also lifted its full year
earnings guidance.
Speaker 5 (21:48):
This came after Medtronic announced that it will expand it's
bored after Elliott Investment Management became one of its biggest investors.
Speaker 2 (21:55):
For more, Lisa and I were joined by Matt Hendrickson
Bloomberg Intelligence senior medtech analysts as Matt to bring.
Speaker 5 (22:01):
Us up to date on what is happening at Metronic.
Speaker 11 (22:03):
With the Elliott Management news, they reported that they have
a significant stake in the stock and they're going to
plan to bring on two new border directors. These are
previous medtech CEOs from back in history and basically they're
looking to revitalize growth.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
And capture efficiencies too.
Speaker 11 (22:27):
As they quoted in the earnings call built oxygen for
future growth. And so one of the things we saw
in the quarter in the earnings today, there were some
areas that had strong growth, strong momentum, but in their
diversified portfolio, there are other areas that kind of, let's say,
needed some tweaking.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
But when it comes to this the board, who were
some of the additions that are that are coming in
because of Elliot and has Elliott the schools, the size
of the state.
Speaker 11 (22:57):
As I've seen now, I have not seen a actual
size of what the steak is. Some of these the
board directors, they were former CEOs at den Supply so
some medtech companies. They were also previously at Beckman, Dickinson
other ones. They are able to come in with more
(23:18):
of an operational background and so being able to drive
kind of that efficiency, to be able to create the savings,
to be able to invest into their R and D programs.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Right for the folks in front of the terminal with
tickers M D T. Then you type in the A
n R function, get the analyst rating. Street doesn't know
what to do with this stuff. Seventeen buy, sixteen holds
in one sell. What's what's the confusion out there about
this name?
Speaker 11 (23:41):
Then everybody needs medicals, everyone needs medical devices. Metronic has
invested a lot of money into these home run type products,
polse field ablation, renal de innervation. All these products are
trying to disrupt a current market. Either if it's atual fibrillation, hypertension,
(24:02):
if you get if you hit a home run like
you're doing with pulsteril ablation, it is going to drive
us pulse field ablation. It's basically a way to ablate
an area that's being affected by autral fibrillation without using
heat or without freezing, so that prevents kind of the
damage to the tissue. If you hit home runs like that,
you're gonna have key growth drivers. Other products like renal
(24:24):
deinnervation is taking longer for that growth to develop. So analysts,
including myself, see all these products in the pipeline get
very excited about the potential for that growth to accelerate.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
From let's say the four to five percent.
Speaker 11 (24:37):
They're currently at to six percent, and then we're just
still waiting for that execution of those commercialization of the.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Products to get to that higher growth.
Speaker 11 (24:48):
Some analysts, as you see in the A and R,
they are more bullish on when that will come up.
Others are starting to say, wait a minute, We've seen
this story before, and so they are waiting. It's a
wait and see story for those analysts.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
I noticed when we talk with tariffs, they scaled back
the impact of TERRAFF, so they lifted their full year guidance.
Are you seeing that more from other companies in this space?
Speaker 11 (25:10):
Yes, I would say the majority of the companies that
reported so far. Metronic always reports because their July fiscal
quarter end. All the companies that reported their June fiscal
end had a similar thing where they cut it by
roughly half of what they had predicted in the first quarter.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Our thanks to Matt henrickson Bloomberg Intelligence, senior metech allist.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
Coming up, we'll look at sustainable aviation fuel and how
it's breaking records. From twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in
depth research and data on two thousand companies in one
hundred and thirty industries.
Speaker 5 (25:41):
You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi go on the terminal.
I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence with Paul Sweeney on bloom Radio.
Speaker 5 (26:01):
I'm Poul Swiney and I'm Lisa Mateo filling in on
Bloomberg Intelligence. We move next to news in the drug
and pharmaceutical space. This week, the Danish drug maker Novo
Nordis announced it's slashing the cost of ozempic for cash
paying patients.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
The company said patients can now get ozempic for four
hundred and ninety nine dollars a month, that's about half
of its US list price through Novo's cash pay pharmacy
Novo Care.
Speaker 5 (26:22):
Nova is also partnering with the healthcare company Gutarex to
offer ozempic for the same price as pharmacies across the US.
And this all comes after Novo's weightlaws drug we go
Vy received FDA approval to treat a serious form of
liver disease.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
For more, Lisa and I were joined by Madison Muller
Bloomberg Health reporter, We first asked Madison for her take
on Nova's recent breakthrough with wegov.
Speaker 12 (26:43):
Nova artists got approval for regov, which is its weight
loss drug to treat a liver disease called MASH.
Speaker 13 (26:49):
And this sort of is a we've seen over the
last couple of years.
Speaker 12 (26:53):
So many studies come out to show the potential health
benefits of these weight laws drugs beyond just you know,
the producing the number on the scale. And we knew
from studies that there was some benefit to the liver
from taking these drugs, and so Nova was able to
notch and approval for that, which helps one with insurance coverage.
Wigov and then Eli Lilly's drug zet Bound are still
(27:14):
not super widely covered by insurance companies for weight loss,
but having some of these other health benefits shown and
proven in studies helps them convince ensures that they are
worth covering, and so this gives them an edge against Lily.
Lily's drug, Zetbound is not approved yet for this indication,
and so it gives them sort of a leg up there,
(27:37):
and then it also gets I mean, it sort of
is another benefit for Novo because they've been struggling over
the last year, just with zet Bound sort of making
waves in the market and taking market share from Wigov.
Speaker 13 (27:55):
This gives them a leg up there as well.
Speaker 12 (27:58):
And just with the tumultuousness of the last few weeks
they had a CEO ouster and a few other moving pieces.
So this is good news for them and we'll we'll
see well, but it will maybe help them gain back
some market share.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
One of the issues for these weight loss drugs is
the cost, and if you're not covered by insurance, they
really are expensive. So by slashing the cost of a
zempic in half, does a company believe that's going to
open up a big new vein of new customers.
Speaker 10 (28:28):
Maybe.
Speaker 12 (28:29):
So it's interesting because if patients are on ozempic, they
are usually on it. It's you know, type two diabetes
treatment and usually that's covered by insurance diabetes.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
But does it have a side benefit I guess, of
weight loss?
Speaker 13 (28:42):
Yes?
Speaker 12 (28:42):
So, I mean there are two different drugs, right, There's ozembic,
which is the diabetes drug Wigov. They both use the
exact same active ingredient, which is semiglue tide.
Speaker 13 (28:50):
Wigov is a higher dose version.
Speaker 12 (28:52):
If you're on ozempic, it's lower doses, so it's not
quite as strong, but there is that weight loss side
effect on both drugs.
Speaker 13 (29:00):
Previously, Novo actually.
Speaker 12 (29:02):
Did cut the cost of wigo V down to about
the same price five hundred dollars a month back in March,
and now they are doing the same for ozempic. But
it's interesting because the question of whether or not this
is going to expand access for more patients sort of
remains to be seen, because again, if you have ozempic,
you usually are covered by insurance for it.
Speaker 5 (29:22):
Now something I also said, there are partnering in this article,
it's said with good Rx to offer ozempic we go
before the same price as pharmacies. But didn't Novo try
the partnership thing with Hymns and hers and that didn't
work out so well.
Speaker 12 (29:34):
Yeah, yeah, So Hyms was one of several partners that
Novo has sort of worked with over the last couple
of months again to really make waves and get into
this market or gain back market share because it's really
lost ground to Eli Lilly. Hyms was one of the
companies that they've partnered with. They've partnered with a couple
of other telehealth companies as well as CVS to make
(29:56):
this cash pay price more widely available. But this is
the first time that they're dropping the price of ozempic
as well. So this partnership with good Rx, you know,
any patient is essentially a coupon, like any patient who
goes to a pharmacy uses good rx is going to
be able to get this cash pay price for ozempic.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
And Wigov mentioned that the hymns and hers those compound drugs,
how effective are they vis a v the golp ones
them themselves, because that would be a if I were
like Novo Nordics, I spent all this money to develop,
but that would be a bummup recease.
Speaker 12 (30:27):
Yes, and that's a really good question actually, that question
of how effective are these drugs, because that's the problem
is we don't know. There are studies that drug makers
are required to do. They have to go through a
length the FDA approval process to prove that their medications
are safe and effective. Compounded drugs don't go through that
same approval process, so there's no actual studies showing how
(30:49):
effective those medications are. And it's a little bit of
a gamble. I mean, we've seen patients losing weight on
these compounded medications, and we haven't seen a tremendous amount
of side effects that are really different from the branded medications.
So the problem is just more that we don't actually
have a lot of visibility into that compounded market and
(31:10):
don't know how those drugs stack up to the branded medications.
Speaker 5 (31:15):
Where does this all put Eli Lilly then, I mean,
they already had the setback with the weight loss pill,
so now we're hearing all this about Nova. Where does
this put them?
Speaker 13 (31:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 12 (31:23):
Yeah, I mean it's been it's interesting, like the two companies.
I think last year it was just they were so
red hot and there was like nothing that expectations were
sky high. There was really nothing that seemingly could bring
them down. But now we're seeing a couple of stumbles
and I think that that, you know, shows again how
high the expectations are for this market.
Speaker 13 (31:41):
There's just no room for failure. But we'll see what
happens next to Lily.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
When is the pill going to be available day year?
Speaker 12 (31:50):
Sometime twenty twenty six, So they said that they're planning
to file for FDA approval by the end of the
year and then hopefully launch next year.
Speaker 5 (31:58):
Our thanks to Madison Mueller Bloomberg Health Reporter.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Each week we look at research from Bloomberg and EF
previously known as New Energy Finance.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
They're the DM at Bloomberg that tracks and analyzes the
energy transition from commodities to power transport industries. This week
we took a look at sustainable aviation fuel and how
it's breaking records from twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
For more, Lisa and I were joined by Anna Davies BNF,
head of Renewable Fuels.
Speaker 5 (32:22):
We first asked Anna to explain the reason behind the
record breaking use of sustainable aviation fuel.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
There has been an influx in attention and growth in
the sustainable aviation fuel market. And this is basically a
market to produce a jet fuel molecule but not use
fossil fuels, so usually they use biofuels instead of fossil fuels.
So something like used cooking oil out of a fryer.
You can clean it, purify it, upgrade it, and then
(32:47):
you can make a hydrocarbon molecule like jet fuel from
that oil. And it's a way to decarbonize a sector
like aviation, which another if you don't have these fuels,
it's very hard to decarbonize because there's no real alternative
to jet fuel, and jet fuel is so carbon emissions.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
How efficient is this jet fuel? This renewable jet fuel,
so it.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Is almost identical to fossil jet fuel. So in terms
of it works the same way you burn it in
an aircraft engine. It releases CO two like fossil jet
fuel does. But the main thing is that it's from
a plant or some other renewable source, and so if
you think of agriculture, they absorb carbon dioxide for a photosynthesis,
and so therefore you can think of it as sort
(33:26):
of a net CO two neutralish technology because it at
least absorbs some CO two in the growing of the fuels.
Speaker 5 (33:33):
So are there any challenges with renewable jet fuel.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
There's a lot of challenges, and the main challenge. The
main challenge is cost. It's very costly. So the cheapest
way to make these fuels is kind of what I've
been describing. You take an oil like use cooking oil.
That alone is at least two to four times the
cost of fossil jet fuel. And that one is tough
because there's only so much used cooking oil out there.
You can use other oils like soybean oil, but that
(33:57):
has fewer emission benefits associated with it because then you're
growing soybeans to cultivate for their oil, so you have
land issues, you have you know, all the pesticides and
fertilizers and emissions that come from agriculture with that.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
Who makes this stuff?
Speaker 4 (34:11):
It is mostly the oil refineries these days. Because they
can utilize existing oil refineries and upgrade them to handle
a biooil similar to a fossil oil, the process for
making it becomes quite similar. So your largest producers there
are things like Neste or here in the US, Phillip
sixty six and Valero have some pretty big operations.
Speaker 5 (34:31):
Now, you talked about twenty twenty five numbers, so how
do you compare that to twenty twenty four Like it
was a significant, significant jump.
Speaker 4 (34:40):
Yeah, so this was a really big well, twenty twenty
five numbers so far is on track to double twenty
twenty four numbers of production of this fuel in the US.
Twenty twenty four was a quadrupling of twenty twenty three volumes,
So these are really growing at a quick rate. That
set is growing for a very small number. So even
with this quadrupling and doubling, we're still at less than
(35:00):
half of one percent of all US fossil jet fuel
or less of all US fuel.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
So it seems to me this is probably one of
those supplying demand situations. I need demand to ramp up
production to bring down the unit costs here, So what
are the are the airlines committed to taking this fuel?
Speaker 4 (35:16):
This is definitely a chicken and egg scenario. The airlines
have targets in place. A lot of them want to
have ten percent of their fuel being sustainable aviation fuel
by twenty thirty, But these are just targets. There's no
real ramifications if they don't meet it. Some countries like
the EU and UK are setting very strict mandates. So
(35:36):
both of those regions have two percent mandates for saff
use in twenty twenty five, and that increases over time
and there are penalties associated with it if they don't
meet that. Here in the US, we're definitely taking the
incentive approach by offering tax incentives or other policy incentives
to try and encourage production. There's no strict target.
Speaker 5 (35:56):
Now, what about looking longer term? Is the outlook for
this as as it's been on this trajectory you're saying,
but does it can it continue.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
This, So that is a really good question. The countries
like the EU and UK have very ambitious targets. The
EU wants to see seventy percent of all jet fuel
be made from sustainable aviation fuel by twenty fifty. We
have benf think that that's going to be very hard
to achieve. Just to produce that quantity of these fuels,
where would you get the feedstock from?
Speaker 10 (36:23):
What?
Speaker 4 (36:24):
Who would shoulder the cost of that? So we anticipate
it will probably be closer to the ten percent by
twenty fifty twenty thirties. Another time, there's a lot of targets.
Like I said, airlines have ten percent by twenty thirty.
We don't think that will be achieved either, just because
a lot of projects have been delayed or canceled in
recent years, especially as interest rates are high, policies have
been changing. There's a lot of uncertainty, especially here in
(36:46):
the US where a lot of these facilities are being planned.
So there's been a lot of slow down and delay
in this industry. And the twenty thirty might be a
time where we see really ambitious targets and not enough supply.
Speaker 8 (36:55):
To meet it.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
We reticent to asked this question, but how has this
current administration impacted the adoption of a.
Speaker 4 (37:04):
These aviation fuels. Yes, you can't talk about aviation feel
without talking about policy. This current administration, aviation feel is
something that they've permitted. They've allowed policies. There was a
tax incentive and the Inflation Reduction Act to continue. They've
done a few tweaks though that really changed the game
for the industry. The first is that they are really
(37:25):
promoting domestic production ahead of decarbonization, so things like US
crops now fare better relatively than say imported use cooking oil,
the other challenges. They've sort of shifted the incentives a bit,
so now it's a lot cheaper to produce the counterpart,
which is road field renewable diesel for trucking, than it
is for stable aviation field. They're produced in the same method.
(37:47):
It's a taed costlier to make jet fuel over diesel,
just by the mechanics of how to produce. So the
Inflation Reduction Act offered more of a tax credit for
jet fuel, making the economics kind of more on par.
They've sort of reduced that leg up, so we expect
more diesel less jet fuel in the coming years.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
Our thanks to Anna Davies BNEF, head of Renewable Fuels.
That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio,
providing in depth research and data on two thousand companies
and one hundred and thirty industries.
Speaker 5 (38:13):
And remember you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi Go
on the terminal.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us.
Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up
right now
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence
with Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
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Bloomberg Intelligence with Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and
Bloomberg Originals.
Speaker 5 (00:42):
I'm Paul Sweeney and I'm Lisa Matteo filling in on
Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
On Today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big
business stories impacting Wall Street and at the global markets.
Speaker 5 (00:51):
Each and every week, we provide in depth research and
data on some of the two thousand companies and one
hundred and thirty industries our analysts cover worldwide.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Today you'll look at why retailer Target is naming an
insider as its next chief executive officer.
Speaker 5 (01:03):
Plus well look at why the Danish drug maker Novo
Nordisk is slashing the cause of its weight loss drug ozempic.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
First, we begin with the earning from TJX companies.
Speaker 5 (01:12):
This week, the off price retailer raised its full year
guidance and reported second quarter earnings that beat analyst projections.
It's a sign that shoppers are currently turning toward discounters
due to economic uncertainty.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
For more.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Guest hosts, Alexis Christophers and I were joined by Mary
Ross Gilbert Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail equity analysts. First asked
Mary for her take on the company's results.
Speaker 6 (01:33):
TJX is hitting it out of the park. This is
a company that just executes seamlessly and consistently, something in
retail that's very, very difficult to do. They saw strength
across all categories, across all income groups, all age groups,
and they know how to get the merchandise right by store,
by region, so they have a terrific planning and allocation.
(01:56):
They sort of emphasize that and another key point because
they raise their guidance not only for sales but also
on the margin side. And there was such a huge
fear with terraffs. They only source probably less than ten
percent of their sales come for their merchandise is something
they directly source. They were able to buy better, which
means they got better deals. That means there's so much
(02:19):
availability out there, and it's something we've observed in our
channel checks and when you look at the shopping halls
on television, on a YouTube and you see the incredible
brands that are available, and they really are across good,
better and best. So you can get anything from Puma, Audi, Doos,
Nike all the way up to Eve, Saint Laurent and Gucci.
(02:44):
So it's and TJX really really wins across all that,
so strength across you know, all their channels and internationally,
I mean Canada was a nine percent comp sales.
Speaker 7 (02:59):
I want to ask about a possible headwind though, because
it seems like they're firing on all cylinders. But I
know that TJX mentioned in the past about a key demographic,
the Hispanic customer. They were concerned that maybe immigration policy
was going to keep them home or not spend as much.
Did they mention anything about that.
Speaker 6 (03:17):
I don't think they saw any weakness as a result
of that. I know it's been a big concern not
only for TJX, as you brought up Alexai, but also
for Ross and for Burlington, and probably even more so
for Burlington because they really skew to a lower income
consumer and they're due to report next week, and so
we should learn more on that.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Mary, I always think the job of a retail animals
like you was really tough because not only do you
have to do the regular stuff as an analyst, like
get the earnings estimates kind of right and on the
financial analysis, but you kind of have to have an
opinion on like who's good at picking out the right
fashion to even put in the store in the first place.
What is TJX doing so well? Do you think?
Speaker 5 (04:00):
Well, they have.
Speaker 6 (04:02):
The most amazing buying team, and so they spend they
have sort of like a buying academy where they teach
their buyers. You know, they have to go through you know,
I think it's like three years, maybe even up to
seven years of work that they do with these buyers.
So the pricing that they work on and the product
(04:24):
that they're buying is really something that is steeped in
experience history. They also invest in systems, you know, so
that means technology logistics to make sure that they can
get this all right. Because you can imagine that if
they're shipping multiple merchandise, you got to have fresh drops
(04:46):
because these customers will shop multiple times a week because
it's that freshness that brings them in. So yes, TJX
is the leader. They're the largest in the world. I mean,
they'll probably hit sixty billion in revenue this year, up
from fifty six billion last year. And they keep increasing
the number of potential store openings they see. Previously they
(05:08):
said we think we have another twelve hundred stores to open.
Now they're saying it's another eighteen hundred stores to open
around the country, just around the globe in their existing markets.
So yes, this company really has the expertise in doing
it right. Is there a digital strategy here because I
remember I'm sure you do too, Mary, when you would
(05:29):
go online to try to find out what tjmax had
and there was nothing there because you always had to
go in the store to find out what they had.
I think they had to step up their game right
because of Amazon and others online. But what is the
digital strategy, if anything, at Tjmax and TJX. That's a
good question. So actually TJX has a digital strategy. It's
(05:50):
across all their brands except for home goods, and so
it's about I think it's I think it's just under
five percent of sales. So it's very small. But they
also saw strength in this quarter on their e comm business.
So they do have an e comm business. You can
go on it and you can shop anything you want
on there. Now you can't say that you want to
(06:12):
shop by brand, but you can select. Let's say, let's
say that you want to just buy the ultra luxe
you know, merchandise that they have there, and you'll see
Christian de or sunglasses. You'll see you know, like I mentioned,
you know, on the handbag size Balan Chiaga. So you
will be able to find what you want on the
(06:33):
high end, also on the low end, but you'll have
to do it by price points, by sorting that way,
because they're not allowed to necessarily have that ability to
sort by brands. So you will see they have a
robust online business, you know, and it's around the globe. Now,
the key is that they're a key differentiated in that regard.
(06:54):
Remember that it's still very small, and that the vast
majority of their sales, you know, more like ninety six
percent or so, are being generated in store, but nobody
else in off price other.
Speaker 7 (07:06):
Than the rack.
Speaker 6 (07:08):
The Nordstorm rack has e commerce capabilities all the rest
it's strictly a bricks and mortar model.
Speaker 5 (07:15):
Our thanks to Mary Ross, Gilbert Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail
equity analyst. We move next to news from the cosmetics
company es Day Lauder. This week, the company issued a
weak profit outlook for its fiscal year. S Day Lauder
said it was weighed down by sluggish demand for high
end goods and an escalating trade war for more guestos.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Alexis, Christopherus and I were joined by Debate and Bloomberg
Intelligence luxury goods analysts. We first asked deb what she
took away from s day latter's earnings.
Speaker 8 (07:41):
They're doing well out of the US improve in there.
Numbers for the full year are still done, but you
could see sequential improvement by end of year, and also
somewhat less soft in China. But for them where they
still have so much exposure in Asia and still particularly
(08:01):
in travel retail, inventories to me still look stuffed, even
though if I think about travel retail overall, it's fifteen
percent of their business now it was near thirty percent
four years ago, and they're losing about four points of
growth annually. For me, when I look at the inventory
data over two hundred days versus one ninety, it still
(08:23):
says that there's risk there for me. So they need
to write size Asia. They need to do more in
getting out of main stores in the US. They're doing
a lot positively on things like Amazon Beauty and in
Asia on TikTok, but it's all moving onlines. It's the
third of their business online, a lot going on, a
(08:43):
lot of cost savings, cost cutting, and very low on margin.
You know, and that the company has actually taken away.
Quarterly guidance and forecast for EPs on the full year
are six cents below the two sixteen is expected by
consensus two ten on guidance at the top end is
(09:05):
already a little bit below. So shares a week again
on the back of a couple of years of underperformance.
Speaker 7 (09:13):
You no, dev definitely has you just laid out a
few tough years for this legacy brand. But explain to
me why there were some upgrades recently. I was surprised
to see Deutsche Bank HSBC upgrading from whole to buy.
You got JPM upgrading to overweight. What do they see
here that maybe others on Wall Street are not.
Speaker 8 (09:31):
I think, especially as we've headed through the last couple
of quarters, you can see that there are share gains,
market share gains in some categories in some countries, so
Japan positively, some parts of China by the end positively,
some categories in the US positively as well. And there
are very easy comps that they will cycle through in
(09:53):
the next year ahead, and certainly under the CEO and
the CFO, there feels just a lot more entum and
energy to come. So I think that's what the market
are buying into, as well as the underperformance that we've seen.
But we must remember in terms of them being competitive
and what they're doing, they talk about a solid double
(10:14):
digital just the EBIT margin, you know, this will will
back their investment and then being in front of the consumer,
their innovation pipeline and others. They're only eight percent of
the end of fiscal twenty twenty five and they say
they get to a double double digitald just a EBIT
margin over the next few years. That to me says
(10:35):
they're still a bumpy ride. So I understand why why
those quarterly numbers have gone right.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Hey, deb sde Lauder said, the terriff's going to cost
them about one hundred million dollars to profitability this year.
What do you what are some of the luxury companies,
the brands that you follow. Are they taking these terriff
costs into their p and L or they're trying to
pass them along to customers.
Speaker 8 (10:59):
What's been the strategy for Yeah, and certainly for the
very high end. We saw even at the beginning of
the year pre tariff announcements. The very high end like
MS would say, because the wage costs and others, we'll
be looking at five to six percent price increases, start
to passing those through the beginning of the year, and
(11:19):
then in May when the spring summer collections came through.
They then have commented generally for the luxury space, and
from the work we've done that some may need up
to four five percent price to be passed through, and
the plan is that they pass most of it through.
I don't think very much of it goes up put
down the supply chain, and it's going to be done
(11:40):
gradually in some categories rather than you know, some completely
pass it through more visibly than others. And some will
struggle more. And then we heard the news from Switzerland
with the thirty nine percent tariff, So companies like Swatch
for US will find it difficult. Companies like I still
it's not every brand that is resonating with the consumer
(12:03):
will find it difficult in some brands in some categories.
So that's why I think we wait quart by quarter
and across the rest of the year to see what
companies do need to take a little bit of that
on board. But most of them are finding cost cutting
as part of that, and certainly on the gross we
did see for full years forty basis points improvement on
gross margin for US to order with a little bit
(12:25):
of that tariff impact mixed in there, and that they're
expecting further gross margin improvement in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 5 (12:33):
All right, thanks a Debic and Bloomberg Intelligence Luxury goods analysts.
Coming up, I'll look at earnings from the world's largest
home improvement retailer, home Depot.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in
depth research and data on two thousand companies and one
hundred and thirty industries.
Speaker 5 (12:47):
You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bi go on the terminal.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
I'm Lis Matheo and I'm Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
You're listening to Bloomberg and tell Legends with Paul Sweeney
on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
I'm Paul Sweeney and I'm Lisa Matteo filling in on
Bloomberg Intelligence. We moved next to news from the merchandise
retailer Target.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
This week, Target named insider Michael Fidelki as its next
chief executive officer. Shares of Target fell after the appointment,
indicating that Wall Street had been hoping for an outsider
to take over the company's leadership.
Speaker 5 (13:21):
This all comes after the company reported second quarter earnings
that only narrowly surpass analysts expectations. Target also maintained its
outlook for the full year after slashing it a few
months back.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
For more guest hosts, Alexis Christopheros and I were joined
by Jen bartashis Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail analyst. We first
asked Jen for her take on the new CEO and
whether Target should have gone with an outsider.
Speaker 9 (13:42):
It's an interesting choice, and I think there are investors.
For a little while now, I've been interested in seeing
a CEO change Brian Cornell has done a great job
during his tenure, at least initially in terms of really
driving growth for Target. But an internal choice really implies
much of the same strategy, and I think there was
some hopes that there would be something a little different
(14:02):
and maybe shake things up and bring something new to
the company.
Speaker 7 (14:06):
You know, I'm wondering if Target is going through an
existential crisis right for this identity crisis because you feel like,
I don't know about upon and the last time you
went into a Target, Sure, but you feel like they've
lost their mojo, Jennifer, because the last time I was
in there, the store shelves were not stocked very well,
felt disorganized, couldn't find a sales associate to help me.
(14:27):
What does this new CEO have to do to help
this company get back on track. Well, you know, it's
very interesting. He's highlighted three priorities, but they're not really
new priorities. But if they can bring focus to it,
maybe that will help. And that's you know, re energizing
the assortment, bringing back some of that style and you
(14:48):
know value that people crave. It's about having a very good,
consistent in store execution. And experience, which is what you
were actually.
Speaker 9 (14:56):
Just talking about, having things in stock, having you know
you associates available. And then the third is an acceleration
in the deployment of technology to maybe you know, make
processes faster, improve efficiency, that sort of thing. So we'll
see if that, you know, if that happens. But it's
really about getting back to what is it that consumers
(15:17):
loved about Target and how do you get them back
in that frame of mind so that they come to
stores and spend there.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Well, you're the expitt here, like I don't have a
sense of what people go to Target for. What do
you think they go to Target for?
Speaker 9 (15:29):
Well, what they traditionally have gone to Target for was
that sense of discovery. Right, you had a couple of
things on your list, you got in and you were inspired.
You saw home decoration items that you just were like, oh,
that would look great in my living room. Or you
would go through apparel and you would see something very
stylish and you know value that you thought, oh, that's
a great thing to add to my basket. And so
(15:51):
that's what's a little bit missing. And part of that
may be because of just the rise in digital orders.
It's a less conducive to those impromptu purchases. But it's
also inspired by the assortment and by what people experience
when they're in the stores, and that's really where they
have to focus to get that magic back.
Speaker 7 (16:10):
And Jennifer correct me if I'm wrong. I think Target
has more exposure to tariffs than say, Walmart because of
its mix of products. It doesn't have as much exposure
to groceries as Walmart does, but it gets a lot
of its products from overseas places that are getting hit
by these tariffs. How did that play out in this
quarter and how will it play out going forward.
Speaker 9 (16:29):
Yeah, it's a great question, and it is one of
the things that's sort of been bogging down Target ever
since we've had very high food inflation. The willingness to
spend on discretionary categories has been a little bit more limited.
And that's really the area that Target has always excelled,
things like apparel and electronics and toys and home decor
(16:49):
and so you know, right now, the company is saying
they're doing a pretty good job of mitigating tariffs, but
they are more exposed because of the merchandise mix that
they have. They said they've done some right sizing. They've
they've paid off kind of the one time cancellation charges
they had while they were waiting on the terra verdicts.
We'll see what unfolds in third quarter, and especially because
(17:11):
it's back to school, which is a really important quarter
for Target.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
What's always well? I guess what's recently in the last
ten fifteen years really amazed me about Walmart is it
how's effective their digital strategy was, and they actually went
toe to toe with Amazon, and I think they more
than hold their own, not just about Target in their
digital strategy. How's that performing?
Speaker 9 (17:30):
Overall? Target's digital strategy has been doing pretty well. They've
done a They've made a conscious decision to not go
head to head with Walmart and Target. So, for example,
in their marketplace, it's not just an endless aisle of sellers.
They have a very close criteria of who they let
onto their platform and that's worked well for them because
it helps keep the product selection closer to what people
(17:51):
expect from Target. Their digital sales were up in terms
of same star sales this quarter, well uppaced the visit
visits to stores, and so they've been executing pretty well there.
It's just a matter of how do they marry the
two parts of the business to grow simultaneously.
Speaker 5 (18:08):
Aur Thanks to Jen Bartashi's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior retail analyst.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
We move next to news from the world's largest home
improvem in retail or home Depot.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
This week, Home Depot said sales return to growth in
the second quarter. This comes as shoppers invested in smaller
projects such as lighting and gardening.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
For more.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Lisa and I were joined by Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence
US home building analyst.
Speaker 5 (18:27):
We first asked Drew for his take on Home Depot's earnings.
Speaker 10 (18:30):
It was actually a pretty much inline quarter for home Depot.
Today comps up about one little shy consensus, but if
you back out some of the four X impact, it
was pretty much in line. Now. Of course, growth isn't
as strong as you would like to see, and a
lot of that, as you mentioned, has to do with
where rates are, both rates on home equity loans and
(18:51):
mortgage rates. You have to remember, housing turnover is at
the lowest level since the financial crisis, and what we've
heard consistently from Home Depot over the last quarters is
that consumers are pulling back on big ticket discretionary categories,
So think of things like kitchen and bathroom models are
flooring And the reason is because these tend to be
financed with that and with rates where they are, and
(19:13):
consumers with the expectation that rates are going to pull back,
they're taking a wait and see approach and deciding to
opt for their smaller ticket to projects instead.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Drew, What what does home depots say about terr risk
for them? How did they quantify for the street?
Speaker 10 (19:29):
Yeah, good question obviously on you know, top of mind
for a lot of investors. So home Depot has done
well to diversify that are sourcing over the last several years.
They get about fifty percent of their products from the US,
so they are in pretty good shape from that regard.
We would estimate, you know, products coming from China somewhere
around fifteen to twenty percent. And there's a couple of
(19:50):
ways that they're going to manage this. One, given the
scale that they have, they're able to push back against suppliers.
The second they continue to diversify their supply chain. On
their last quarter call, they mentioned that no single country
outside of the US will be more than ten percent
of sourcing. And then lastly, I think We're going to
start to see some selective price increases coming through in
(20:10):
the next several quarters. Now, they've done a little bit
of pre buy on the inventory side to make sure
that they had some of that lower cost product on
the shelves for consumers. But I think, you know, as
we get to the end of this year and into
next year, you're going to start to see a little
bit of pricing. Now, we wouldn't expect it to be
to be widespread or significant. Remember, home Depot sales about
(20:31):
thirty to forty thousand products on their shelves, so they
tend to take a portfolio approach and manage pricing really
across the entire project, rather than raising prices across the board.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
Sure, so are you telling me my next home Depot
run is going to be more expensive? It's going to
cost me more, Drew, I have painting, I have a
deck to build, I have things to do. I mean
you're saying this could take effect pretty soon.
Speaker 10 (20:54):
Well maybe not your next trip back, Okay, the next couple.
Maybe Looking more towards the end of this year or
into the next year, we would expect to see prices
up marginally.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
So I need to rush now, well, if consumers are
putting off those big projects, what are they focusing on?
I mean, is it the smaller ones or are they
just canceling projects altogether.
Speaker 10 (21:14):
Yeah, it tends to be more maintenance repair oriented, you know.
So there's there's projects around the house where things break
and you have to fix them immediately, or replacement products
for appliances and things of that nature. And again, what
we're not seeing is the big ticket discretionary of things
like like kitchen and bess that require financing.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
Our thanks to Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analyst.
Speaker 5 (21:38):
We move next to the medical device industry.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
This week, the medical device company Medtronic reported profit that
beat analyst expectations. The company also lifted its full year
earnings guidance.
Speaker 5 (21:48):
This came after Medtronic announced that it will expand it's
bored after Elliott Investment Management became one of its biggest investors.
Speaker 2 (21:55):
For more, Lisa and I were joined by Matt Hendrickson
Bloomberg Intelligence senior medtech analysts as Matt to bring.
Speaker 5 (22:01):
Us up to date on what is happening at Metronic.
Speaker 11 (22:03):
With the Elliott Management news, they reported that they have
a significant stake in the stock and they're going to
plan to bring on two new border directors. These are
previous medtech CEOs from back in history and basically they're
looking to revitalize growth.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
And capture efficiencies too.
Speaker 11 (22:27):
As they quoted in the earnings call built oxygen for
future growth. And so one of the things we saw
in the quarter in the earnings today, there were some
areas that had strong growth, strong momentum, but in their
diversified portfolio, there are other areas that kind of, let's say,
needed some tweaking.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
But when it comes to this the board, who were
some of the additions that are that are coming in
because of Elliot and has Elliott the schools, the size
of the state.
Speaker 11 (22:57):
As I've seen now, I have not seen a actual
size of what the steak is. Some of these the
board directors, they were former CEOs at den Supply so
some medtech companies. They were also previously at Beckman, Dickinson
other ones. They are able to come in with more
(23:18):
of an operational background and so being able to drive
kind of that efficiency, to be able to create the savings,
to be able to invest into their R and D programs.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Right for the folks in front of the terminal with
tickers M D T. Then you type in the A
n R function, get the analyst rating. Street doesn't know
what to do with this stuff. Seventeen buy, sixteen holds
in one sell. What's what's the confusion out there about
this name?
Speaker 11 (23:41):
Then everybody needs medicals, everyone needs medical devices. Metronic has
invested a lot of money into these home run type products,
polse field ablation, renal de innervation. All these products are
trying to disrupt a current market. Either if it's atual fibrillation, hypertension,
(24:02):
if you get if you hit a home run like
you're doing with pulsteril ablation, it is going to drive
us pulse field ablation. It's basically a way to ablate
an area that's being affected by autral fibrillation without using
heat or without freezing, so that prevents kind of the
damage to the tissue. If you hit home runs like that,
you're gonna have key growth drivers. Other products like renal
(24:24):
deinnervation is taking longer for that growth to develop. So analysts,
including myself, see all these products in the pipeline get
very excited about the potential for that growth to accelerate.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
From let's say the four to five percent.
Speaker 11 (24:37):
They're currently at to six percent, and then we're just
still waiting for that execution of those commercialization of the.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Products to get to that higher growth.
Speaker 11 (24:48):
Some analysts, as you see in the A and R,
they are more bullish on when that will come up.
Others are starting to say, wait a minute, We've seen
this story before, and so they are waiting. It's a
wait and see story for those analysts.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
I noticed when we talk with tariffs, they scaled back
the impact of TERRAFF, so they lifted their full year guidance.
Are you seeing that more from other companies in this space?
Speaker 11 (25:10):
Yes, I would say the majority of the companies that
reported so far. Metronic always reports because their July fiscal
quarter end. All the companies that reported their June fiscal
end had a similar thing where they cut it by
roughly half of what they had predicted in the first quarter.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Our thanks to Matt henrickson Bloomberg Intelligence, senior metech allist.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
Coming up, we'll look at sustainable aviation fuel and how
it's breaking records. From twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in
depth research and data on two thousand companies in one
hundred and thirty industries.
Speaker 5 (25:41):
You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi go on the terminal.
I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence with Paul Sweeney on bloom Radio.
Speaker 5 (26:01):
I'm Poul Swiney and I'm Lisa Mateo filling in on
Bloomberg Intelligence. We move next to news in the drug
and pharmaceutical space. This week, the Danish drug maker Novo
Nordis announced it's slashing the cost of ozempic for cash
paying patients.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
The company said patients can now get ozempic for four
hundred and ninety nine dollars a month, that's about half
of its US list price through Novo's cash pay pharmacy
Novo Care.
Speaker 5 (26:22):
Nova is also partnering with the healthcare company Gutarex to
offer ozempic for the same price as pharmacies across the US.
And this all comes after Novo's weightlaws drug we go
Vy received FDA approval to treat a serious form of
liver disease.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
For more, Lisa and I were joined by Madison Muller
Bloomberg Health reporter, We first asked Madison for her take
on Nova's recent breakthrough with wegov.
Speaker 12 (26:43):
Nova artists got approval for regov, which is its weight
loss drug to treat a liver disease called MASH.
Speaker 13 (26:49):
And this sort of is a we've seen over the
last couple of years.
Speaker 12 (26:53):
So many studies come out to show the potential health
benefits of these weight laws drugs beyond just you know,
the producing the number on the scale. And we knew
from studies that there was some benefit to the liver
from taking these drugs, and so Nova was able to
notch and approval for that, which helps one with insurance coverage.
Wigov and then Eli Lilly's drug zet Bound are still
(27:14):
not super widely covered by insurance companies for weight loss,
but having some of these other health benefits shown and
proven in studies helps them convince ensures that they are
worth covering, and so this gives them an edge against Lily.
Lily's drug, Zetbound is not approved yet for this indication,
and so it gives them sort of a leg up there,
(27:37):
and then it also gets I mean, it sort of
is another benefit for Novo because they've been struggling over
the last year, just with zet Bound sort of making
waves in the market and taking market share from Wigov.
Speaker 13 (27:55):
This gives them a leg up there as well.
Speaker 12 (27:58):
And just with the tumultuousness of the last few weeks
they had a CEO ouster and a few other moving pieces.
So this is good news for them and we'll we'll
see well, but it will maybe help them gain back
some market share.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
One of the issues for these weight loss drugs is
the cost, and if you're not covered by insurance, they
really are expensive. So by slashing the cost of a
zempic in half, does a company believe that's going to
open up a big new vein of new customers.
Speaker 10 (28:28):
Maybe.
Speaker 12 (28:29):
So it's interesting because if patients are on ozempic, they
are usually on it. It's you know, type two diabetes
treatment and usually that's covered by insurance diabetes.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
But does it have a side benefit I guess, of
weight loss?
Speaker 13 (28:42):
Yes?
Speaker 12 (28:42):
So, I mean there are two different drugs, right, There's ozembic,
which is the diabetes drug Wigov. They both use the
exact same active ingredient, which is semiglue tide.
Speaker 13 (28:50):
Wigov is a higher dose version.
Speaker 12 (28:52):
If you're on ozempic, it's lower doses, so it's not
quite as strong, but there is that weight loss side
effect on both drugs.
Speaker 13 (29:00):
Previously, Novo actually.
Speaker 12 (29:02):
Did cut the cost of wigo V down to about
the same price five hundred dollars a month back in March,
and now they are doing the same for ozempic. But
it's interesting because the question of whether or not this
is going to expand access for more patients sort of
remains to be seen, because again, if you have ozempic,
you usually are covered by insurance for it.
Speaker 5 (29:22):
Now something I also said, there are partnering in this article,
it's said with good Rx to offer ozempic we go
before the same price as pharmacies. But didn't Novo try
the partnership thing with Hymns and hers and that didn't
work out so well.
Speaker 12 (29:34):
Yeah, yeah, So Hyms was one of several partners that
Novo has sort of worked with over the last couple
of months again to really make waves and get into
this market or gain back market share because it's really
lost ground to Eli Lilly. Hyms was one of the
companies that they've partnered with. They've partnered with a couple
of other telehealth companies as well as CVS to make
(29:56):
this cash pay price more widely available. But this is
the first time that they're dropping the price of ozempic
as well. So this partnership with good Rx, you know,
any patient is essentially a coupon, like any patient who
goes to a pharmacy uses good rx is going to
be able to get this cash pay price for ozempic.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
And Wigov mentioned that the hymns and hers those compound drugs,
how effective are they vis a v the golp ones
them themselves, because that would be a if I were
like Novo Nordics, I spent all this money to develop,
but that would be a bummup recease.
Speaker 12 (30:27):
Yes, and that's a really good question actually, that question
of how effective are these drugs, because that's the problem
is we don't know. There are studies that drug makers
are required to do. They have to go through a
length the FDA approval process to prove that their medications
are safe and effective. Compounded drugs don't go through that
same approval process, so there's no actual studies showing how
(30:49):
effective those medications are. And it's a little bit of
a gamble. I mean, we've seen patients losing weight on
these compounded medications, and we haven't seen a tremendous amount
of side effects that are really different from the branded medications.
So the problem is just more that we don't actually
have a lot of visibility into that compounded market and
(31:10):
don't know how those drugs stack up to the branded medications.
Speaker 5 (31:15):
Where does this all put Eli Lilly then, I mean,
they already had the setback with the weight loss pill,
so now we're hearing all this about Nova. Where does
this put them?
Speaker 13 (31:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 12 (31:23):
Yeah, I mean it's been it's interesting, like the two companies.
I think last year it was just they were so
red hot and there was like nothing that expectations were
sky high. There was really nothing that seemingly could bring
them down. But now we're seeing a couple of stumbles
and I think that that, you know, shows again how
high the expectations are for this market.
Speaker 13 (31:41):
There's just no room for failure. But we'll see what
happens next to Lily.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
When is the pill going to be available day year?
Speaker 12 (31:50):
Sometime twenty twenty six, So they said that they're planning
to file for FDA approval by the end of the
year and then hopefully launch next year.
Speaker 5 (31:58):
Our thanks to Madison Mueller Bloomberg Health Reporter.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Each week we look at research from Bloomberg and EF
previously known as New Energy Finance.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
They're the DM at Bloomberg that tracks and analyzes the
energy transition from commodities to power transport industries. This week
we took a look at sustainable aviation fuel and how
it's breaking records from twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
For more, Lisa and I were joined by Anna Davies BNF,
head of Renewable Fuels.
Speaker 5 (32:22):
We first asked Anna to explain the reason behind the
record breaking use of sustainable aviation fuel.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
There has been an influx in attention and growth in
the sustainable aviation fuel market. And this is basically a
market to produce a jet fuel molecule but not use
fossil fuels, so usually they use biofuels instead of fossil fuels.
So something like used cooking oil out of a fryer.
You can clean it, purify it, upgrade it, and then
(32:47):
you can make a hydrocarbon molecule like jet fuel from
that oil. And it's a way to decarbonize a sector
like aviation, which another if you don't have these fuels,
it's very hard to decarbonize because there's no real alternative
to jet fuel, and jet fuel is so carbon emissions.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
How efficient is this jet fuel? This renewable jet fuel,
so it.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Is almost identical to fossil jet fuel. So in terms
of it works the same way you burn it in
an aircraft engine. It releases CO two like fossil jet
fuel does. But the main thing is that it's from
a plant or some other renewable source, and so if
you think of agriculture, they absorb carbon dioxide for a photosynthesis,
and so therefore you can think of it as sort
(33:26):
of a net CO two neutralish technology because it at
least absorbs some CO two in the growing of the fuels.
Speaker 5 (33:33):
So are there any challenges with renewable jet fuel.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
There's a lot of challenges, and the main challenge. The
main challenge is cost. It's very costly. So the cheapest
way to make these fuels is kind of what I've
been describing. You take an oil like use cooking oil.
That alone is at least two to four times the
cost of fossil jet fuel. And that one is tough
because there's only so much used cooking oil out there.
You can use other oils like soybean oil, but that
(33:57):
has fewer emission benefits associated with it because then you're
growing soybeans to cultivate for their oil, so you have
land issues, you have you know, all the pesticides and
fertilizers and emissions that come from agriculture with that.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
Who makes this stuff?
Speaker 4 (34:11):
It is mostly the oil refineries these days. Because they
can utilize existing oil refineries and upgrade them to handle
a biooil similar to a fossil oil, the process for
making it becomes quite similar. So your largest producers there
are things like Neste or here in the US, Phillip
sixty six and Valero have some pretty big operations.
Speaker 5 (34:31):
Now, you talked about twenty twenty five numbers, so how
do you compare that to twenty twenty four Like it
was a significant, significant jump.
Speaker 4 (34:40):
Yeah, so this was a really big well, twenty twenty
five numbers so far is on track to double twenty
twenty four numbers of production of this fuel in the US.
Twenty twenty four was a quadrupling of twenty twenty three volumes,
So these are really growing at a quick rate. That
set is growing for a very small number. So even
with this quadrupling and doubling, we're still at less than
(35:00):
half of one percent of all US fossil jet fuel
or less of all US fuel.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
So it seems to me this is probably one of
those supplying demand situations. I need demand to ramp up
production to bring down the unit costs here, So what
are the are the airlines committed to taking this fuel?
Speaker 4 (35:16):
This is definitely a chicken and egg scenario. The airlines
have targets in place. A lot of them want to
have ten percent of their fuel being sustainable aviation fuel
by twenty thirty, But these are just targets. There's no
real ramifications if they don't meet it. Some countries like
the EU and UK are setting very strict mandates. So
(35:36):
both of those regions have two percent mandates for saff
use in twenty twenty five, and that increases over time
and there are penalties associated with it if they don't
meet that. Here in the US, we're definitely taking the
incentive approach by offering tax incentives or other policy incentives
to try and encourage production. There's no strict target.
Speaker 5 (35:56):
Now, what about looking longer term? Is the outlook for
this as as it's been on this trajectory you're saying,
but does it can it continue.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
This, So that is a really good question. The countries
like the EU and UK have very ambitious targets. The
EU wants to see seventy percent of all jet fuel
be made from sustainable aviation fuel by twenty fifty. We
have benf think that that's going to be very hard
to achieve. Just to produce that quantity of these fuels,
where would you get the feedstock from?
Speaker 10 (36:23):
What?
Speaker 4 (36:24):
Who would shoulder the cost of that? So we anticipate
it will probably be closer to the ten percent by
twenty fifty twenty thirties. Another time, there's a lot of targets.
Like I said, airlines have ten percent by twenty thirty.
We don't think that will be achieved either, just because
a lot of projects have been delayed or canceled in
recent years, especially as interest rates are high, policies have
been changing. There's a lot of uncertainty, especially here in
(36:46):
the US where a lot of these facilities are being planned.
So there's been a lot of slow down and delay
in this industry. And the twenty thirty might be a
time where we see really ambitious targets and not enough supply.
Speaker 8 (36:55):
To meet it.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
We reticent to asked this question, but how has this
current administration impacted the adoption of a.
Speaker 4 (37:04):
These aviation fuels. Yes, you can't talk about aviation feel
without talking about policy. This current administration, aviation feel is
something that they've permitted. They've allowed policies. There was a
tax incentive and the Inflation Reduction Act to continue. They've
done a few tweaks though that really changed the game
for the industry. The first is that they are really
(37:25):
promoting domestic production ahead of decarbonization, so things like US
crops now fare better relatively than say imported use cooking oil,
the other challenges. They've sort of shifted the incentives a bit,
so now it's a lot cheaper to produce the counterpart,
which is road field renewable diesel for trucking, than it
is for stable aviation field. They're produced in the same method.
(37:47):
It's a taed costlier to make jet fuel over diesel,
just by the mechanics of how to produce. So the
Inflation Reduction Act offered more of a tax credit for
jet fuel, making the economics kind of more on par.
They've sort of reduced that leg up, so we expect
more diesel less jet fuel in the coming years.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
Our thanks to Anna Davies BNEF, head of Renewable Fuels.
That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio,
providing in depth research and data on two thousand companies
and one hundred and thirty industries.
Speaker 5 (38:13):
And remember you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi Go
on the terminal.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us.
Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up
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