November 26, 2025 • 27 mins
Watch Scarlet and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Kristine Aquino
-Christopher Ciolino, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior US Machinery Analyst, discusses Deere Earnings. Deere & Co.’s weak forecast for the year ahead reinforces the difficulty in predicting a recovery in the US farm economy as uncertainty continues to swirl over the impact of tariffs and trade deals.
-Woo Jin Ho, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst, recaps Dell and HP earnings. Dell Technologies raised its annual projections for the AI server market due to sustained demand for machines needed in the current data center boom. HP Inc. gave a profit outlook for the current year that fell short of estimates and will cut 4,000 to 6,000 employees through fiscal 2028 by using more AI tools.
-Diana Rosero Pena, Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer Staples Analyst, recaps Petco earnings. The pet health and wellness company raised its full-year forecast for adjusted Ebitda.
-Matt Britton, CEO of Market Research firm, Suzy, and the author of “Generation AI: Why Generation Alpha and the Age of AI Will Change Everything” discusses the impact of AI on Holiday shopping trends.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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Speaker 2 (00:24):
One of my favorite American companies is Dear John Dear Company,
because it just to me. A the products are just awesome,
the big tractors and stuff like that, and B they're
such high quality, and they're just known around the world.
Great engineering, great technology, and they're just the backbone for
the American farmer. It's the tool for the American farmer
who feeds the world. So I just always followed this
(00:46):
company really closely, and they came out with some numbers disappointing.
It's a little tough out there in farm country. So
we want to break it down with Chris Chiolino. He
covers all the big machinery companies for Bloomberg Intelligence, just
one of our top top analysts. He knows this story well. Chris,
tell us what you heard from Deer with their most
recent quarterly results. Yeah, thanks, Paul.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
You know, we expected pretty conservative guidance coming into the print.
But this was, you know, well below our expectations, and
I'd say even you know, below some of the most
bearish estimates out there, and really just kind of points
to a lower for longer agg cycle here in North America.
Their twenty sixth net Income guide calls for another ten
percent decline in twenty twenty six. It implies roughly earnings
(01:31):
per share in the sixteen dollars and fifty cent range,
which is, you know, eighteen percent below consensus. So it's
not great news. I would say there are a couple
positive takeaways though. One, we do finally now have I
think visibility and line of sight on trough earnings this cycle.
In two, I think there's probably some inherent conservatism built
(01:53):
into this outlook, just given the lingering you know, trade
and tariff uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Yeah. Well, Chris, I'm looking add that net income guidance,
which is down sharply from last year's levels, right, So
talk to us about that. Do you think that is
more of a cyclical thing or are we actually seeing
something more structural that's playing out in this space.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
No, it's the cycle, you know. I think we always
tend to kind of undershoot on the way down and
overshoot on the way up. But this cycle is, you know,
playing out I think probably a little bit more severe
than we had initially expected. Large eg. Retail sales here
in North America are going to be down roughly thirty
(02:34):
percent this year. That's the second year of the decline,
and now Deer is expecting another fifteen to twenty percent
decline in twenty twenty six. That would put volumes at
the lowest level in more than four decades. I don't
think I have a model that goes back far enough
that shows that trough level of volume, So I think
it's we're pretty confident that this will be the bottom.
(02:56):
It's just kind of a lower floor.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
On the flip side.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
I mean, the earnings per share are still, you know,
we think are structurally higher just given some of the
improvements they've made in the business model. But from a
cycle and volume perspective, this is as bad as it gets.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Why do you think that is what's different around about
this cycle versus past cycles here?
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Yeah, it's a combination of a couple things. I mean,
at the end of the day, farmers aren't going to
buy equipment when you have crop prices that are down.
You know, we've seen a little bit of improvement in
corn and soy over the last three months, but at
the end of the day, we've had too much production
over supply, so that's put a lid on where crop
prices have been going. We also have high input costs,
(03:37):
so while we're starting to see some of that inflation moderate,
a lot of the input costs for farmers are still
very elevated. Even on the interest rent, labor, fertilizer costs
are still too high. And then on top of that,
you have all the trade uncertainty. Who am I going
to sell my crops to? China had essentially stopped buying
our soybeans. That's our largest ad customer and a particularly
(04:01):
important market for deer in row crop farmers. So the
combination of those three I think has really kind of,
you know, extended the duration of this downturn.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Yeah, well, we know, of course that South American demand
expected to be flat, so I suppose a lot of
growth potentially coming from a North American farm economy. But
what are the signs that you would want to look
out for to suggest that, Look, the worst really is
behind this company. There's a turn and forthcoming in the horizon.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Yeah. I think the first you're going to look at
crop prices, and I think we're starting to see a
little bit of positive momentum there with China, you know,
getting back into the US market and making a few
soybean purchases. So some stability on the crop price front
that would be one. And then two is really having
China back in the market more consistently, right, We need stability,
(04:48):
we need predictability around their purchases. You know, they kind
of fell short on their Phase one trade deal agreement
during the first Trump administration, so we need to see them,
you know, consistently back the market, and I think that
will kind of give farmers confidence then maybe then to
go out and start replacing some of this aged equipment.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Is there a fact concern that again, last time, the
last Trump administration, the last time it deal was to
reach for China to buy more US agg China did
not really follow through at the end of the day.
Is there a belief that maybe this time could be different.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
It's a good question, and I don't know that's the
million dollar question, right. So I think ultimately this is
why this is going to be a show me story
and until China, you know, delivers on some of their
commitments and delivers consistently. Farmers aren't going to go out
and spend. So when we see that occur, I think
that will lend more support to improvement and crop prices.
(05:43):
And then I do think, you know, you start to
see farmers start to go out and some replace some
of those you know, aged equipment in the on their fields.
But again it's very much I think we need to
see it to believe it first.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up for this.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Earnings continued to come in. We had a couple of
the tech companies Dell and HP report numbers. Let's break
it down with Woujinho, senior Technology anals Bloomberg Intelligence joining
us from our Princeton HQ Tennant Jersey. All right, would
you let's start with Dell here. It looks like they're
raising their annual projections for the AI server market. Is
that still the heart of the story.
Speaker 5 (06:40):
Hey, Paul, Yeah, so it's the leading part of the
story for results. They raised their AI server guidance from
twenty billion to twenty five billion, a lot of that
coming into the fiscal fourth quarter. And look at the
end of the day, we're starting to see some of
these clustered Blackwell deals starting to come through. Think about
(07:01):
the open aiyes and the core weaves and so on
and so forth. That are billions of dollars for each
of these deals, and that's probably going to carry through
into fiscal twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 4 (07:12):
Now ougent a lot of folks. Of course, in that
positive story, I suppose the less positive spin here is
the fact that this is going to cost Dell a
lot of money to deliver these orders, right, And I
think some analys are taking a look at the margins
that they reporter, which came slightly under estimates depending on
the measured are you're looking at. But you know, what
(07:34):
is it. Where does kind of the layer of the
land go when it comes to kind of cost versus
return for Dell's ability to deliver these AI service and
get some profit off of that.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
Yeah, Hey, hey Christina, so sore, there's actually a tale
of there are two stories behind the margins. The gross
margin expectations. You know, I was back into about twenty
point three percent, twenty point four percent on growth margins
for the company. Contestants that twenty two percent. Uh, and
you're right, AI server margins are lower, but that's always
(08:08):
consistently been the case. Now, the one thing I will
say the AI several margins have improved this quarter relative
to the fiscal two quarter results, as as their supply
chain has gotten better. Now, the bigger story is, and
it actually applies to HP is that the DRAM pricing
(08:29):
has gone up and these higher commodity costs is bringing
a drag to potentially bringing a drag to not only
their PC business, but their server business as well. So
I think there's something else underlying that's driving the margins lower.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
All right, so let's talk about HP HPE. Is the
tickery HPQ, HPQ exactly? Okay, talk to us about the
current I guess it gave an estimate that fell short
on the profits they're going to and I also saw
like they're going to cut four to six thousand employees
through fiscal twenty eight by using more AI tools. See
(09:03):
that goes to my thing. I think my thesis has
been from the beginning that AI is going to be
a net job destroyer. Here talk to us about HP.
What did they tell us this quarter?
Speaker 5 (09:12):
Yeah, so, just as I was saying, Paul, the higher
commodity costs is actually going to be pinching gross margins
the way I'm looking at it right now, they cut
their EPs guidance. Well, they're saying that the higher commodity
cost is going to pinch about thirty cents an EPs
and fysical twenty six, and that's roughly about eight to
(09:34):
ten percent of earnings that's being pulled away because of
the higher commodity costs. There's going to be more back
end loaded. So what that tells me is that the
stockpiled inventory at least into the first half of the year.
But I think there's a bigger part of the story too.
You don't cut back on a headcount. It looks like
(09:55):
about an eight percent riff or reduction in force because
of AI if you're in a position of strength. So
they've been in cost cutting mode for the past five
six years now, and they've continued to be in cost
cutting mode. So you know, profits are going to be terrible,
and they're going to try to preserve their cash flow
to pay back their shareholders by cutting headcount.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Yeah, well interesting region. As you mentioned, they've been in
cost cutting mode for years now, this is their second
round of major workforce reductions in three years. The shares
though not really liking what they saw from HP yesterday.
How do you think investors are interpreting this? Are they
wanting more cost cuts? Like? What do you think they're
expecting from HP moving forward?
Speaker 5 (10:38):
Yeah? So, Christina, no one likes cost cuts shareholders made
from a profits perspective, but you're not getting the profit gains, right,
So consensus was at three thirty five and EPs, and
if it's thirty cents of the EPs cuts were primarily
(10:58):
from the supply chain edwins, you're not getting the games
from the cost cutting cuts, at least not in fiscal
twenty six, but hopefully a little bit better in twenty
seven and twenty eight. So it's more a wait and
see and what those impacts are going to be. And again,
like I said, you're not cutting costs from a possession
of strength. It's more of a position of weakness.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Hey, for Dell, going back to Dell, silver Lake owns
a big, big chunk of the stock here. What have
they said about their intentions with the stock?
Speaker 5 (11:27):
Well, look, look, I believe Michael Dell is a has
a seat with silver Lake. I think they're going to
hang on to it for quite a bit. I mean,
if you think about where where Dell was when they
came out of being a private company to a public company,
the returns on that has been fairly good. So if
the AI story continues to take hold, right and they
(11:49):
continue to take market share and they can drive margin expansion,
you know, I wouldn't be surprised if valuations continue to
expand from here because we're coming we're still coming off
the peak and the performance of the shares or could
continue to drive returns for civil Lake going forward.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
Okay, why do you walk us through the Dell operating
leverage standpoint? Here's what's your take on that, because that's
been kind of a point of I guess focus for
markets recently. Just the fact that are these companies that
aim to deliver the servers, are the equipment related to
AI demand? Are they going to have to borrow a
(12:31):
ton of money to be able to deliver that? For
some companies like Oracle is not working out, But how's
it working out for Dell?
Speaker 5 (12:38):
Yeah, I mean, the one great thing about Dell is
they have a very solid balance sheet. They don't have
much debt coming out, They deliver a lot of cash flow.
They're only half full of hardware companies that can do that,
So this goes another one that has a strong enough
balance sheet to support that. And also, you know, going
back to Paul's point on the Silver Laker relationship, Soblick
(13:01):
actually has ties to some of these customers who are
buying these larger deals, so funding really shouldn't be an
issue with them. Now to your point about margins and
the marginal leverage, having a diversified business is a very
good thing for Dell. I know that the AI server
margins are pretty weak, and the PC margins are weak
as well, but they have a fairly sizable traditional IT
(13:24):
service business traditional servers as well as storage, and that's
going through an upgrade of modernizations cycle and that has
higher margins that that helps cushion the lower margin profiles
of the AI servers for them. So diversity in the
business model is actually a good thing, not only for Dell,
but for Cisco and Hpe Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business Up. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Lots of earnings out, one of them is Petco. Some
concerns out there. Deanna Ressett Openia, she's a consumer Staples
and at Bloomberg Intelligence, Dianna talk to us about Petco.
What did they what did you learn with their earnings
and what's their strategy going forward?
Speaker 6 (14:21):
Yes, so there were pretty much pretty in line with consensus.
In terms of Phase two. EBIDA was very strong. They
grew more than one hundred basis points EBIDA margin, So,
you know, phase two of their strategy of creating profitable
(14:41):
sales growth seems to be on track. Now the next phase,
which is actually getting consent comparable sales to grow, that's
probably going to be an inflection they will probably see
in the second half of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4 (14:55):
Yeah, so, Dana, very interesting that Petco actually managed to
expand their margins, especially in the environment where costs are
rising left and right. Talk to us about what sort
of strategy is they used to be able to achieve
that is something that they can sustain moving forward.
Speaker 6 (15:11):
Yes, so basically they try to be a little bit
smarter with their inventory, their you know, displaying better margin
items on the shelves. They're relying more on services. They're
trying to do a little bit more on the on
(15:32):
the grooming side and on the bed side. That generates
a lot of income and a lot of profitability for them. So,
you know, obviously costs store closings also helped in the quarter.
So that is how they have managed to grow more
than one hundred basis points margins in the past three quarters.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
What is the competitive landscape of the pet food business?
Speaker 6 (16:00):
So they said that it has not it's stabilized. You know,
in the past few quarters we have seen the likes
of Chewy and pet Costs say that consumers remain a
little bit more conservative with their spending, particularly on discretionary items.
It seems that that has stabilized and family formation or
(16:22):
pet family formation has stabilized as well. We actually think
that by twenty twenty six, we're probably going to see
more pets being adopted probably at the same pace as historicals,
which is usually in the low to mid single digits.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Well, I'm certainly not in a market for a new
pet at the moment, and I think my cat would
allow for that. But Dana, well, how you talk to
us a little bit more about what you mentioned earlier, right,
kind of like diversifying the services they offer. They're focusing
on grooming as well. Are you seeing signs that this
is translating into sustained traffic, especially into their stores.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Yes. Absolutely.
Speaker 6 (16:57):
We actually run a survey every you know, we have
been running it for the past three years, and actually
this year was the first time that we saw that
people were a little bit more willing to spend more
on discretionary items compared to previous two years. So we
actually saw that coming earlier this year then, you know,
before everybody was saying it that that was happening. So
(17:20):
people seem to be a little bit more. While they're
being very cautious in their spending, they're actually willing to
you know, groom and take their pets to the.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
Vet for sure. All right, so we're in your retail space,
where do you see some of the best opportunities when
you're talking to clients, what do they want to talk
to you about your names of coverage because you cover
a lot of the consumer products that package goods companies
and things like that.
Speaker 6 (17:44):
Yes, so on the pet side, definitely, there seems to
be a little bit more appetite for you know, those
companies that seem to be on the upswing. We have
Chewy that they have expanded their you know, their their
revenue channels beyond merchandise and they're doing more ads and other, uh,
(18:06):
you know, revenues that are going to increase profitability. On
the long term. You have pet Co that is probably
going to start growing in the second half of next year,
so by that time it's probably going to be a
good name that is probably going to be in the
in the business for a while.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
Well, a lot of disruptors in the space for sure,
But you know, as far as kind of Petco is concerned,
it seems like no dividends, really no by passes are
on the table at the moment. Is that something that
could turn away investors, maybe something that could push towards
some of these emerging competitors in the space.
Speaker 6 (18:43):
Yes, So that is something that they mentioned last night
in the call. Obviously, they did not specify when they're
going to start returning to shareholders. They're focusing on the
strategy getting the right inventor on the shelf as well
as getting profitability up there and getting leveraged down to
(19:06):
like less than three times. So once that happens, they
might be a little bit more willing to see where
that goes. You know. It's it's something that the new
CEO is thinking about, but not necessarily a timeline just yet.
So yeah, shareholders might not necessarily get a return similar
(19:26):
to other package food or other consumer stable companies, but
it's you know, it seems that this is more of
like an investment opportunity in terms of the strategy that
they're going through.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
Stay with us or from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us
Live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay and
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wherever you get your podcasts, or watch US Live me too.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
O heay. Just in the last year or two, this
AI is crept into a vocabulary. I think before it
was just big data, and then before that it was
just data. I don't know, but it's just everywhere, and
I think it's I'm being told it's also going to
be part of our shopping experience as well as we
head into the big shopping part of the year. I
have no idea that's going to work. Matt Brittin, he does.
He's the CEO of market research firm Susie and he
(20:25):
is the author of a book entitled Generation AI, Why
Generation Alpha and the Age of AI will Change Everything. Okay,
that that kind of gets at you, Matt, Thanks so
much for joining us here AI Shopping Go. What's going
to happen?
Speaker 7 (20:42):
Well, you know, the Internet looks like it's about to
have a new front door. For the last two decades
if we wanted to find out anything, whether it's for
research or we're booking travel or we want to buy something.
You know, the word Google has become a verb in
our culture, but that is starting to shift. In fact,
Google repoorted nine percent year of your decline in their
classic link search in Q three of twenty twenty five,
(21:05):
and at the same time, chat GBT saw one point
eight billion week week queries as of October twenty twenty
five and over forty percent of those quarries are searched
like in nature. So consumers are sort of acting with
their fingers, so to speak, in terms of the sites
that they're going to, and they're going to these large
language models. Now, it should be stated that Google also
(21:25):
has its own large wagage model called Gemini, which released
an incredible version of Gemini three just this week. So
I'm not saying that Google itself is in trouble, but
the notion of going to a traditional search engine to
find things at the beginning of your shopping journey, I
don't think we'll ever look the same way again.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Yeah, Matt, I know exactly what you mean, because just
yesterday I was searching in my chat GBT for more
affordable dupes of this really expensive skincare product that I'm
in the market force. So yes, exactly what you're talking about.
But you know, for mine and Paul's generations, this is
something that we're still kind of wrapping our heads around, right.
But you were talking about Generation Alpha as the generation
(22:03):
Dot's basically just very this is innately something that they do,
So talk to us about that sort of generational shift.
How is that going to change the landscape? Of I
guess kind of like consumer activity now that we do
have this generation that's just this is just what they do,
use AI for everything.
Speaker 7 (22:20):
Absolutely, So I've spent my career, you know, I started
my career in year two thousand and Back then the
new consumer was the Millennial generation, which was the first
generation to grow up with the Internet and household and
then ten to fifteen years later the focus was on
Gen Z, which of course is now known as a
social media and iPhone generation, meaning that they never knew
a world without social media and the iPhone Jen Alpha
(22:41):
currently aged zero, the fifteen years old is going to
be known as a AI generation. They are never going
to know a world without AI, without a technology that
you can interact with the same way that you interact
with other people. So for them, if you think about it,
they never will live with the through a world where
you went to Google, right, And one day they may
look at traditional search engines the way you and I
(23:01):
look at rotary landlines, right, and for them, it's going
to be just the facto behavior to go to a
chat GIBT to do research. And what's starting to happen
is whether it's perplexity or chat GBT. They are all
now integrating commerce functionality into their platforms where now you
can actually buy on these platforms as well. So are
(23:23):
brands ready for this? And I think I know the
answer there, Well, they're not, and they're trying to figure
it out. And the reality is it's just moving so fast.
You know, it's really hard to understand how to behave
when you have a new large luggage mail coming out
each week. For years, these brands were focused on search
engine optimization. How does your brand come up first when
(23:45):
someone's searching in your category? Now the big term is GEO,
which is essentially optimization for AI. Models and brands right
now are clamoring to be the first brand that pops
up if someone searches for a luxury handbag under three
hundred dollars for a teenage girl. Right every brand wants
to be the first brand that Chatt recommends, and right now, frankly,
it's kind of a black box and a mystery of
(24:06):
how to get there. But it's going to be you know,
companies that figure that out are gonna suddenly find themselves
in a very fortunate situation. It's going to create new
winners and new losers.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Very quickly.
Speaker 4 (24:16):
Yeah, well, Matt just kind of shifting a kron away
a little bit from the AI factor here, and just
kind of in general kind of some of the emerging
trends in shopping at the moment. You mentioned live shopping
is something that is becoming more of a thing, certainly
for younger generations. That's kind of how they show on
they shop on TikTok with creators kind of going live
(24:38):
and telling them buy this products.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
It's kind of like the home Shopping network, but for
this a QI exactly new PC exactly.
Speaker 4 (24:45):
So yeah, tells more about that.
Speaker 7 (24:48):
So this year, for the first time ever, the average
age of a first time mom in the US is
gen Z, which means the average age of a mom
who's head of their household and buying the Tide to
t Urgent and you know, Gillette shaving cream for the home.
Grew up looking at their phone, and when they are
looking at their phone, they are not looking at content
(25:08):
from traditional media networks, but instead content from creators and influencers,
people who have built large followings on these platforms through
really compelling social media content. For years, these creators were
kind of limited to earning money through awareness and impressions.
But now they are moving further down the funnel and
they are engaging in what you definitely talked about is
live shopping, whether it's on TikTok or an emerging platform
(25:30):
called whatnot, where they can actually use their audience, use
their credibility and authenticity in the space to actually sell products.
In some instances, it's products that they actually have an
equity stake in or they build on their own, and
other instances they're simply an agent earning commission on products
that they sell. But I would expect to see more
and more of this overtime.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Who is or what is the alpha buyer?
Speaker 7 (25:53):
Well, the alpha buyer is jen Alpha, and the alpha
buyer is really skipping the funnel entirely. You know, they
are essentially going down social video. They're focusing on creators trusts,
they want instant checkout. You know, they have very low
tolerance for any friction in the buying process. So it's
a completely new set of expectations that businesses really need
to build around.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
Yeah, and you know, I guess when you say that,
they're kind of skipping the funnel exactly right. So this
could potentially transform how people shop, Like we may not
need website setting where people can just go on TikTok
or whichever social media like, yeah, are you seeing companies?
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Think about it?
Speaker 7 (26:30):
Think about what's been in the last ten years. It's
like you hear about something on TV, or maybe you
saw an ad on Facebook or Instagram, and then maybe
you go on Google and do more research and you
go to Amazon and purchase it. Right, So you're going
to a variety of different places or a variety of
different media channels. But now you can do your research
and you can interact, and you can over time purchase
(26:51):
on maybe just one platform, right, And that's going to
change the entire funnel, and it's going to create you know,
the risk there is that you're going to have few
arm your companies control more and more of the market,
which we've obviously seen with the mag seven over time.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
You know, obviously open Ai is a new entrant in
the space.
Speaker 7 (27:08):
You have other entrants like Claude which is a large
language mouth, Bromanthropic and of course Perplexity if I mentioned
so there are some new players, but it's looking more
and more like big tech is going to play a
huge role in the shift.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
What does Amazon do you know.
Speaker 7 (27:22):
I think that's one of the questions I have because
if you can buy over chat, gptware has context, what's
going to happen with Amazon.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
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Speaker 2 (00:24):
One of my favorite American companies is Dear John Dear Company,
because it just to me. A the products are just awesome,
the big tractors and stuff like that, and B they're
such high quality, and they're just known around the world.
Great engineering, great technology, and they're just the backbone for
the American farmer. It's the tool for the American farmer
who feeds the world. So I just always followed this
(00:46):
company really closely, and they came out with some numbers disappointing.
It's a little tough out there in farm country. So
we want to break it down with Chris Chiolino. He
covers all the big machinery companies for Bloomberg Intelligence, just
one of our top top analysts. He knows this story well. Chris,
tell us what you heard from Deer with their most
recent quarterly results. Yeah, thanks, Paul.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
You know, we expected pretty conservative guidance coming into the print.
But this was, you know, well below our expectations, and
I'd say even you know, below some of the most
bearish estimates out there, and really just kind of points
to a lower for longer agg cycle here in North America.
Their twenty sixth net Income guide calls for another ten
percent decline in twenty twenty six. It implies roughly earnings
(01:31):
per share in the sixteen dollars and fifty cent range,
which is, you know, eighteen percent below consensus. So it's
not great news. I would say there are a couple
positive takeaways though. One, we do finally now have I
think visibility and line of sight on trough earnings this cycle.
In two, I think there's probably some inherent conservatism built
(01:53):
into this outlook, just given the lingering you know, trade
and tariff uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Yeah. Well, Chris, I'm looking add that net income guidance,
which is down sharply from last year's levels, right, So
talk to us about that. Do you think that is
more of a cyclical thing or are we actually seeing
something more structural that's playing out in this space.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
No, it's the cycle, you know. I think we always
tend to kind of undershoot on the way down and
overshoot on the way up. But this cycle is, you know,
playing out I think probably a little bit more severe
than we had initially expected. Large eg. Retail sales here
in North America are going to be down roughly thirty
(02:34):
percent this year. That's the second year of the decline,
and now Deer is expecting another fifteen to twenty percent
decline in twenty twenty six. That would put volumes at
the lowest level in more than four decades. I don't
think I have a model that goes back far enough
that shows that trough level of volume, So I think
it's we're pretty confident that this will be the bottom.
(02:56):
It's just kind of a lower floor.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
On the flip side.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
I mean, the earnings per share are still, you know,
we think are structurally higher just given some of the
improvements they've made in the business model. But from a
cycle and volume perspective, this is as bad as it gets.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Why do you think that is what's different around about
this cycle versus past cycles here?
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Yeah, it's a combination of a couple things. I mean,
at the end of the day, farmers aren't going to
buy equipment when you have crop prices that are down.
You know, we've seen a little bit of improvement in
corn and soy over the last three months, but at
the end of the day, we've had too much production
over supply, so that's put a lid on where crop
prices have been going. We also have high input costs,
(03:37):
so while we're starting to see some of that inflation moderate,
a lot of the input costs for farmers are still
very elevated. Even on the interest rent, labor, fertilizer costs
are still too high. And then on top of that,
you have all the trade uncertainty. Who am I going
to sell my crops to? China had essentially stopped buying
our soybeans. That's our largest ad customer and a particularly
(04:01):
important market for deer in row crop farmers. So the
combination of those three I think has really kind of,
you know, extended the duration of this downturn.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Yeah, well, we know, of course that South American demand
expected to be flat, so I suppose a lot of
growth potentially coming from a North American farm economy. But
what are the signs that you would want to look
out for to suggest that, Look, the worst really is
behind this company. There's a turn and forthcoming in the horizon.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Yeah. I think the first you're going to look at
crop prices, and I think we're starting to see a
little bit of positive momentum there with China, you know,
getting back into the US market and making a few
soybean purchases. So some stability on the crop price front
that would be one. And then two is really having
China back in the market more consistently, right, We need stability,
(04:48):
we need predictability around their purchases. You know, they kind
of fell short on their Phase one trade deal agreement
during the first Trump administration, so we need to see them,
you know, consistently back the market, and I think that
will kind of give farmers confidence then maybe then to
go out and start replacing some of this aged equipment.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Is there a fact concern that again, last time, the
last Trump administration, the last time it deal was to
reach for China to buy more US agg China did
not really follow through at the end of the day.
Is there a belief that maybe this time could be different.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
It's a good question, and I don't know that's the
million dollar question, right. So I think ultimately this is
why this is going to be a show me story
and until China, you know, delivers on some of their
commitments and delivers consistently. Farmers aren't going to go out
and spend. So when we see that occur, I think
that will lend more support to improvement and crop prices.
(05:43):
And then I do think, you know, you start to
see farmers start to go out and some replace some
of those you know, aged equipment in the on their fields.
But again it's very much I think we need to
see it to believe it first.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up for this.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Earnings continued to come in. We had a couple of
the tech companies Dell and HP report numbers. Let's break
it down with Woujinho, senior Technology anals Bloomberg Intelligence joining
us from our Princeton HQ Tennant Jersey. All right, would
you let's start with Dell here. It looks like they're
raising their annual projections for the AI server market. Is
that still the heart of the story.
Speaker 5 (06:40):
Hey, Paul, Yeah, so it's the leading part of the
story for results. They raised their AI server guidance from
twenty billion to twenty five billion, a lot of that
coming into the fiscal fourth quarter. And look at the
end of the day, we're starting to see some of
these clustered Blackwell deals starting to come through. Think about
(07:01):
the open aiyes and the core weaves and so on
and so forth. That are billions of dollars for each
of these deals, and that's probably going to carry through
into fiscal twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 4 (07:12):
Now ougent a lot of folks. Of course, in that
positive story, I suppose the less positive spin here is
the fact that this is going to cost Dell a
lot of money to deliver these orders, right, And I
think some analys are taking a look at the margins
that they reporter, which came slightly under estimates depending on
the measured are you're looking at. But you know, what
(07:34):
is it. Where does kind of the layer of the
land go when it comes to kind of cost versus
return for Dell's ability to deliver these AI service and
get some profit off of that.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
Yeah, Hey, hey Christina, so sore, there's actually a tale
of there are two stories behind the margins. The gross
margin expectations. You know, I was back into about twenty
point three percent, twenty point four percent on growth margins
for the company. Contestants that twenty two percent. Uh, and
you're right, AI server margins are lower, but that's always
(08:08):
consistently been the case. Now, the one thing I will
say the AI several margins have improved this quarter relative
to the fiscal two quarter results, as as their supply
chain has gotten better. Now, the bigger story is, and
it actually applies to HP is that the DRAM pricing
(08:29):
has gone up and these higher commodity costs is bringing
a drag to potentially bringing a drag to not only
their PC business, but their server business as well. So
I think there's something else underlying that's driving the margins lower.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
All right, so let's talk about HP HPE. Is the
tickery HPQ, HPQ exactly? Okay, talk to us about the
current I guess it gave an estimate that fell short
on the profits they're going to and I also saw
like they're going to cut four to six thousand employees
through fiscal twenty eight by using more AI tools. See
(09:03):
that goes to my thing. I think my thesis has
been from the beginning that AI is going to be
a net job destroyer. Here talk to us about HP.
What did they tell us this quarter?
Speaker 5 (09:12):
Yeah, so, just as I was saying, Paul, the higher
commodity costs is actually going to be pinching gross margins
the way I'm looking at it right now, they cut
their EPs guidance. Well, they're saying that the higher commodity
cost is going to pinch about thirty cents an EPs
and fysical twenty six, and that's roughly about eight to
(09:34):
ten percent of earnings that's being pulled away because of
the higher commodity costs. There's going to be more back
end loaded. So what that tells me is that the
stockpiled inventory at least into the first half of the year.
But I think there's a bigger part of the story too.
You don't cut back on a headcount. It looks like
(09:55):
about an eight percent riff or reduction in force because
of AI if you're in a position of strength. So
they've been in cost cutting mode for the past five
six years now, and they've continued to be in cost
cutting mode. So you know, profits are going to be terrible,
and they're going to try to preserve their cash flow
to pay back their shareholders by cutting headcount.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Yeah, well interesting region. As you mentioned, they've been in
cost cutting mode for years now, this is their second
round of major workforce reductions in three years. The shares
though not really liking what they saw from HP yesterday.
How do you think investors are interpreting this? Are they
wanting more cost cuts? Like? What do you think they're
expecting from HP moving forward?
Speaker 5 (10:38):
Yeah? So, Christina, no one likes cost cuts shareholders made
from a profits perspective, but you're not getting the profit gains, right,
So consensus was at three thirty five and EPs, and
if it's thirty cents of the EPs cuts were primarily
(10:58):
from the supply chain edwins, you're not getting the games
from the cost cutting cuts, at least not in fiscal
twenty six, but hopefully a little bit better in twenty
seven and twenty eight. So it's more a wait and
see and what those impacts are going to be. And again,
like I said, you're not cutting costs from a possession
of strength. It's more of a position of weakness.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Hey, for Dell, going back to Dell, silver Lake owns
a big, big chunk of the stock here. What have
they said about their intentions with the stock?
Speaker 5 (11:27):
Well, look, look, I believe Michael Dell is a has
a seat with silver Lake. I think they're going to
hang on to it for quite a bit. I mean,
if you think about where where Dell was when they
came out of being a private company to a public company,
the returns on that has been fairly good. So if
the AI story continues to take hold, right and they
(11:49):
continue to take market share and they can drive margin expansion,
you know, I wouldn't be surprised if valuations continue to
expand from here because we're coming we're still coming off
the peak and the performance of the shares or could
continue to drive returns for civil Lake going forward.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
Okay, why do you walk us through the Dell operating
leverage standpoint? Here's what's your take on that, because that's
been kind of a point of I guess focus for
markets recently. Just the fact that are these companies that
aim to deliver the servers, are the equipment related to
AI demand? Are they going to have to borrow a
(12:31):
ton of money to be able to deliver that? For
some companies like Oracle is not working out, But how's
it working out for Dell?
Speaker 5 (12:38):
Yeah, I mean, the one great thing about Dell is
they have a very solid balance sheet. They don't have
much debt coming out, They deliver a lot of cash flow.
They're only half full of hardware companies that can do that,
So this goes another one that has a strong enough
balance sheet to support that. And also, you know, going
back to Paul's point on the Silver Laker relationship, Soblick
(13:01):
actually has ties to some of these customers who are
buying these larger deals, so funding really shouldn't be an
issue with them. Now to your point about margins and
the marginal leverage, having a diversified business is a very
good thing for Dell. I know that the AI server
margins are pretty weak, and the PC margins are weak
as well, but they have a fairly sizable traditional IT
(13:24):
service business traditional servers as well as storage, and that's
going through an upgrade of modernizations cycle and that has
higher margins that that helps cushion the lower margin profiles
of the AI servers for them. So diversity in the
business model is actually a good thing, not only for Dell,
but for Cisco and Hpe Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business Up. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Lots of earnings out, one of them is Petco. Some
concerns out there. Deanna Ressett Openia, she's a consumer Staples
and at Bloomberg Intelligence, Dianna talk to us about Petco.
What did they what did you learn with their earnings
and what's their strategy going forward?
Speaker 6 (14:21):
Yes, so there were pretty much pretty in line with consensus.
In terms of Phase two. EBIDA was very strong. They
grew more than one hundred basis points EBIDA margin, So,
you know, phase two of their strategy of creating profitable
(14:41):
sales growth seems to be on track. Now the next phase,
which is actually getting consent comparable sales to grow, that's
probably going to be an inflection they will probably see
in the second half of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4 (14:55):
Yeah, so, Dana, very interesting that Petco actually managed to
expand their margins, especially in the environment where costs are
rising left and right. Talk to us about what sort
of strategy is they used to be able to achieve
that is something that they can sustain moving forward.
Speaker 6 (15:11):
Yes, so basically they try to be a little bit
smarter with their inventory, their you know, displaying better margin
items on the shelves. They're relying more on services. They're
trying to do a little bit more on the on
(15:32):
the grooming side and on the bed side. That generates
a lot of income and a lot of profitability for them. So,
you know, obviously costs store closings also helped in the quarter.
So that is how they have managed to grow more
than one hundred basis points margins in the past three quarters.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
What is the competitive landscape of the pet food business?
Speaker 6 (16:00):
So they said that it has not it's stabilized. You know,
in the past few quarters we have seen the likes
of Chewy and pet Costs say that consumers remain a
little bit more conservative with their spending, particularly on discretionary items.
It seems that that has stabilized and family formation or
(16:22):
pet family formation has stabilized as well. We actually think
that by twenty twenty six, we're probably going to see
more pets being adopted probably at the same pace as historicals,
which is usually in the low to mid single digits.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Well, I'm certainly not in a market for a new
pet at the moment, and I think my cat would
allow for that. But Dana, well, how you talk to
us a little bit more about what you mentioned earlier, right,
kind of like diversifying the services they offer. They're focusing
on grooming as well. Are you seeing signs that this
is translating into sustained traffic, especially into their stores.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Yes. Absolutely.
Speaker 6 (16:57):
We actually run a survey every you know, we have
been running it for the past three years, and actually
this year was the first time that we saw that
people were a little bit more willing to spend more
on discretionary items compared to previous two years. So we
actually saw that coming earlier this year then, you know,
before everybody was saying it that that was happening. So
(17:20):
people seem to be a little bit more. While they're
being very cautious in their spending, they're actually willing to
you know, groom and take their pets to the.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
Vet for sure. All right, so we're in your retail space,
where do you see some of the best opportunities when
you're talking to clients, what do they want to talk
to you about your names of coverage because you cover
a lot of the consumer products that package goods companies
and things like that.
Speaker 6 (17:44):
Yes, so on the pet side, definitely, there seems to
be a little bit more appetite for you know, those
companies that seem to be on the upswing. We have
Chewy that they have expanded their you know, their their
revenue channels beyond merchandise and they're doing more ads and other, uh,
(18:06):
you know, revenues that are going to increase profitability. On
the long term. You have pet Co that is probably
going to start growing in the second half of next year,
so by that time it's probably going to be a
good name that is probably going to be in the
in the business for a while.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
Well, a lot of disruptors in the space for sure,
But you know, as far as kind of Petco is concerned,
it seems like no dividends, really no by passes are
on the table at the moment. Is that something that
could turn away investors, maybe something that could push towards
some of these emerging competitors in the space.
Speaker 6 (18:43):
Yes, So that is something that they mentioned last night
in the call. Obviously, they did not specify when they're
going to start returning to shareholders. They're focusing on the
strategy getting the right inventor on the shelf as well
as getting profitability up there and getting leveraged down to
(19:06):
like less than three times. So once that happens, they
might be a little bit more willing to see where
that goes. You know. It's it's something that the new
CEO is thinking about, but not necessarily a timeline just yet.
So yeah, shareholders might not necessarily get a return similar
(19:26):
to other package food or other consumer stable companies, but
it's you know, it seems that this is more of
like an investment opportunity in terms of the strategy that
they're going through.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
Stay with us or from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us
Live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay and
Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
wherever you get your podcasts, or watch US Live me too.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
O heay. Just in the last year or two, this
AI is crept into a vocabulary. I think before it
was just big data, and then before that it was
just data. I don't know, but it's just everywhere, and
I think it's I'm being told it's also going to
be part of our shopping experience as well as we
head into the big shopping part of the year. I
have no idea that's going to work. Matt Brittin, he does.
He's the CEO of market research firm Susie and he
(20:25):
is the author of a book entitled Generation AI, Why
Generation Alpha and the Age of AI will Change Everything. Okay,
that that kind of gets at you, Matt, Thanks so
much for joining us here AI Shopping Go. What's going
to happen?
Speaker 7 (20:42):
Well, you know, the Internet looks like it's about to
have a new front door. For the last two decades
if we wanted to find out anything, whether it's for
research or we're booking travel or we want to buy something.
You know, the word Google has become a verb in
our culture, but that is starting to shift. In fact,
Google repoorted nine percent year of your decline in their
classic link search in Q three of twenty twenty five,
(21:05):
and at the same time, chat GBT saw one point
eight billion week week queries as of October twenty twenty
five and over forty percent of those quarries are searched
like in nature. So consumers are sort of acting with
their fingers, so to speak, in terms of the sites
that they're going to, and they're going to these large
language models. Now, it should be stated that Google also
(21:25):
has its own large wagage model called Gemini, which released
an incredible version of Gemini three just this week. So
I'm not saying that Google itself is in trouble, but
the notion of going to a traditional search engine to
find things at the beginning of your shopping journey, I
don't think we'll ever look the same way again.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Yeah, Matt, I know exactly what you mean, because just
yesterday I was searching in my chat GBT for more
affordable dupes of this really expensive skincare product that I'm
in the market force. So yes, exactly what you're talking about.
But you know, for mine and Paul's generations, this is
something that we're still kind of wrapping our heads around, right.
But you were talking about Generation Alpha as the generation
(22:03):
Dot's basically just very this is innately something that they do,
So talk to us about that sort of generational shift.
How is that going to change the landscape? Of I
guess kind of like consumer activity now that we do
have this generation that's just this is just what they do,
use AI for everything.
Speaker 7 (22:20):
Absolutely, So I've spent my career, you know, I started
my career in year two thousand and Back then the
new consumer was the Millennial generation, which was the first
generation to grow up with the Internet and household and
then ten to fifteen years later the focus was on
Gen Z, which of course is now known as a
social media and iPhone generation, meaning that they never knew
a world without social media and the iPhone Jen Alpha
(22:41):
currently aged zero, the fifteen years old is going to
be known as a AI generation. They are never going
to know a world without AI, without a technology that
you can interact with the same way that you interact
with other people. So for them, if you think about it,
they never will live with the through a world where
you went to Google, right, And one day they may
look at traditional search engines the way you and I
(23:01):
look at rotary landlines, right, and for them, it's going
to be just the facto behavior to go to a
chat GIBT to do research. And what's starting to happen
is whether it's perplexity or chat GBT. They are all
now integrating commerce functionality into their platforms where now you
can actually buy on these platforms as well. So are
(23:23):
brands ready for this? And I think I know the
answer there, Well, they're not, and they're trying to figure
it out. And the reality is it's just moving so fast.
You know, it's really hard to understand how to behave
when you have a new large luggage mail coming out
each week. For years, these brands were focused on search
engine optimization. How does your brand come up first when
(23:45):
someone's searching in your category? Now the big term is GEO,
which is essentially optimization for AI. Models and brands right
now are clamoring to be the first brand that pops
up if someone searches for a luxury handbag under three
hundred dollars for a teenage girl. Right every brand wants
to be the first brand that Chatt recommends, and right now, frankly,
it's kind of a black box and a mystery of
(24:06):
how to get there. But it's going to be you know,
companies that figure that out are gonna suddenly find themselves
in a very fortunate situation. It's going to create new
winners and new losers.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Very quickly.
Speaker 4 (24:16):
Yeah, well, Matt just kind of shifting a kron away
a little bit from the AI factor here, and just
kind of in general kind of some of the emerging
trends in shopping at the moment. You mentioned live shopping
is something that is becoming more of a thing, certainly
for younger generations. That's kind of how they show on
they shop on TikTok with creators kind of going live
(24:38):
and telling them buy this products.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
It's kind of like the home Shopping network, but for
this a QI exactly new PC exactly.
Speaker 4 (24:45):
So yeah, tells more about that.
Speaker 7 (24:48):
So this year, for the first time ever, the average
age of a first time mom in the US is
gen Z, which means the average age of a mom
who's head of their household and buying the Tide to
t Urgent and you know, Gillette shaving cream for the home.
Grew up looking at their phone, and when they are
looking at their phone, they are not looking at content
(25:08):
from traditional media networks, but instead content from creators and influencers,
people who have built large followings on these platforms through
really compelling social media content. For years, these creators were
kind of limited to earning money through awareness and impressions.
But now they are moving further down the funnel and
they are engaging in what you definitely talked about is
live shopping, whether it's on TikTok or an emerging platform
(25:30):
called whatnot, where they can actually use their audience, use
their credibility and authenticity in the space to actually sell products.
In some instances, it's products that they actually have an
equity stake in or they build on their own, and
other instances they're simply an agent earning commission on products
that they sell. But I would expect to see more
and more of this overtime.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Who is or what is the alpha buyer?
Speaker 7 (25:53):
Well, the alpha buyer is jen Alpha, and the alpha
buyer is really skipping the funnel entirely. You know, they
are essentially going down social video. They're focusing on creators trusts,
they want instant checkout. You know, they have very low
tolerance for any friction in the buying process. So it's
a completely new set of expectations that businesses really need
to build around.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
Yeah, and you know, I guess when you say that,
they're kind of skipping the funnel exactly right. So this
could potentially transform how people shop, Like we may not
need website setting where people can just go on TikTok
or whichever social media like, yeah, are you seeing companies?
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Think about it?
Speaker 7 (26:30):
Think about what's been in the last ten years. It's
like you hear about something on TV, or maybe you
saw an ad on Facebook or Instagram, and then maybe
you go on Google and do more research and you
go to Amazon and purchase it. Right, So you're going
to a variety of different places or a variety of
different media channels. But now you can do your research
and you can interact, and you can over time purchase
(26:51):
on maybe just one platform, right, And that's going to
change the entire funnel, and it's going to create you know,
the risk there is that you're going to have few
arm your companies control more and more of the market,
which we've obviously seen with the mag seven over time.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
You know, obviously open Ai is a new entrant in
the space.
Speaker 7 (27:08):
You have other entrants like Claude which is a large
language mouth, Bromanthropic and of course Perplexity if I mentioned
so there are some new players, but it's looking more
and more like big tech is going to play a
huge role in the shift.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
What does Amazon do you know.
Speaker 7 (27:22):
I think that's one of the questions I have because
if you can buy over chat, gptware has context, what's
going to happen with Amazon.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
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