June 13, 2025 • 21 mins
Watch Alix and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and John Tucker
-Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the latest out of the Mideast. President Donald Trump urged Iran to accept a nuclear deal to avoid further attacks, after Israel bombed Iran's atomic facilities and killed top commanders.
-Dr Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, discusses the latest out of the Mideast. Israel launched airstrikes across Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and killing senior military commanders, in a major escalation that could spark a broad war in the Middle East.
-Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director, discusses Friday's UMich data. US consumer sentiment rose 8.3 points to 60.5 in June, exceeding expectations, as concerns about the economy eased and short-term inflation expectations improved.
-Siddharth Philip, Bloomberg Deputy Team Leader for Global Aviation, discusses Boeing’s latest crisis. A 787 Dreamliner jet crashed in India, killing over 240 people, and Boeing must now navigate the aftermath to reassure investors and the public.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
John Talker sitting in for Alex steel On. Paul Swiney're
live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio in New
York City. Were streaming live on YouTube as well. What
we've been trying to do all day today, starting at
seven am with Tom Keen and surveillance, is just to
try to find some guests here who are experienced and
educated in all things in the complexities of the Middle
East and help us the audience to get some context
(00:45):
about what's happening in the Middle Eastern. Next guest as
certainly one of those folks, Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joining us from Washington,
DC via zoom Here. Aaron, We've had presidents and President's
Trump urging Israel to have restraint, particularly as it relates
(01:05):
to Iran. But I guess today Iran said, Hey, the
risks to us are just too high. Iran is making
too much progress on the nuclear front. We had to act.
What kind of contexts? How do you view what happened
last night?
Speaker 3 (01:21):
It's a long movie, guys, and thanks for having me.
First of all, I think the Israeli's acted in large
part because you have an his early prime minister who
is now very risk ready his lifelong mission is to
Freezer from the shadow of an Irani and bomb. And
the Israeli's not just the prime minister, get behind this
idea of the Began doctrine. You know that in the
(01:41):
summer of nineteen eighty one, then Israeli Prime Minister of
Monock and Began went after the Assira reactor in Iraq
and destroyed it. The Americans destroyed the reactor again, by
the way, during their campaigns in Iraq, just doing the
Reagan administration, and Reagan's not very happy with the Israeli decisions.
He later came to regret it, though, and agreed with
(02:03):
Began that getting rid of the reactor was a wise move.
In this case, I think the first Democratic and Republican
president ever did not communicate in an unmistakable way to
the Prime Minister of Israel, and they talked on Thursday.
We're not sure what the conversation was before these strikes tomorrow,
(02:24):
last night, and this morning. Let's put this way, Donald
Trump did not say no. Had he wanted to say no,
he could have brought to bear an enormous amount of
leverage and pressure to dissuade the Israelies from not striking.
So I don't think that conversation was necessary. He may
(02:46):
have had doubts, but I think in the end he's
simply enabled to exceed an acquiesced in the Prime Minister's decision.
And remember, the negotiations were supposed to zoom on Sunday
in Oman, and yet the administration kept saying right up
to the end. Five hours before the strikes, the President
(03:09):
tweeted on true Social that he hoped there would be
a diplomatic ending to this. So the administration cooperated with
this ruse. And right now we are waiting for the
Iranian response. It could be weeks before it occurs. They're
clearly knocked off balance. Much of their general staff has
(03:31):
been eliminated, former head of the Iran Iranian Revolutionary Guard eliminated,
Chief of staff for the Iranian military eliminating the Israelis.
They are still ongoing now, striking ballistic missile sites you
wa East sites, drone sites in effort to repress and
suppress whatever remains of Iran's air defense. There will be
(03:53):
an Iranian response. It may be asymmetrical, using terror against
Israeli or Jewish targets. There's a history there. It could
be a while. And then you raised the question, or
I'd raise it, what are the Iranians going to respond to? Well,
they confine their strikes to the United Two, I'm sorry,
(04:13):
to Israel proper. Or are they going to go after
American assets in the Gulf, or in Iraq, or in
Syria or oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. I would bet,
given how weak and vulnerable the Iranians are, they'd probably,
at least at this stage confine their response to Israel.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
A secretary at Rubio said this was a unilateral action.
Then we got a tweet or something on social media
from the President that said, among other things, the next
attack being planned will be quote even more brutal and
begs the question for me, what is US foreign policy
with respect to this?
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Well, I think the President had made a judgment he
obviously argued the Iranian negotiations were not producing. He gave
them two months to reach an agreement, which is an
unrealistic deadline. To be sure, that deadline was reached June eleven,
and that Thursday overnight, Thursday Friday morning, they attack. So no,
(05:16):
I think the administration rode the tiger of what the
Israelis now have in this region, which is an escalation dominance.
They've essentially hollowed out Hamasa as a military organization. They've
basically decimated his Bullah, as well as the statement saying
remarkably they would not initiate any activity in response to
(05:37):
what the Israelis have done. So I think that right
now the NFC presidents chairing an NFSC meeting, i'd say
the priorities you asked me what US foreign policy will
be in this case, I think there are three or
four issues. Number One, protect Americans. Make sure that the
sites that are vulnerable are as hardened as they could be.
Number Two, prepare for a significant defense. Assistance of Israel
(06:02):
helped the Israelis multi layer their own defenses, as the
Biden administration did in response to the Iranian attacks last year.
In April October. That's number two, Number three Coordinate Regional
defense unnamed golf countries in April and October helped both
intelligence wise and participation in an Aaron missile defense shield
(06:24):
remarkably supporting Israel in the face of that Iranian attack.
Jordan shot down Jernes in April, last April and October,
and US deployed F fifteen specially equipped with interceptors to
protect and help the Jordans airspace. The final piece of
what policy would be, are they looking for a way
(06:45):
to de escalate. Will they try and push a doubt
for something in the Security Council, but some sort of
initiative that would try to get the Iranians back to
the negotiating table. That's going to be a very heavy lift, though, Guy,
and the Iranians invested five trillion dollars over time in
this nuclear program. They are humiliated. They are embarrassed to
(07:08):
the extreme. So I think we're talking about we're beginning
to a very long and very difficult Israeli Iranian confrontation.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Aaron, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate
getting a few minutes of your time, Aaron. David Miller,
he's a Senior Fellow at the carnegieen Dowment for International
Piece in Washington, TC, joining us of via zoom.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Let's get back to the geopolitical topic of the day,
Israel and Iren. Ariel Cohen joins his senior fellow at
the Atlanta Council, joining us from Stockholm, Sweden of via zoom. Ariel,
can you put into context what has happened over the
last twenty four hours? What is israel strategy? Where does
a rain go from here?
Speaker 5 (08:05):
First of all, this was in the works for probably
twenty years. Iran was giving every opportunity to walk away
from its nuclear weapons program. First with a jcpoa planned
by the Obama administration, it didn't work. Instead of yes
they could enrich for the domestic power production three and
(08:31):
a half percent enriched uranium, they escalated twenty percent and more.
Now they were enriching it sixty to eighty percent, which
the only application is weapons. They kept accelerating development of
their ballistic missiles, and they were funding proxies from the
Red Sea to the Mediterranean, from the Hufis to Ribala,
(08:54):
to Irate to Iraqi Typeisbala. So they were building or
try to build a Middle Eastern empire. And it all
came down rushing, and Trump gave him six sixty days
to agree to keep their internal domestic power production through
(09:16):
nuclear reactors, but to shut down the Richmond They refused.
Every Friday, they chanted death to America, death to Israel.
They tried to assassinate Tromp on American soil. So when
people are telling me, now we don't care about Iran,
nobody talks about Iran like this, bright lights, Marjorie tailor, Marjorie.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
I just want to quickly ask, do we know if
the the Iranian nuclear capabilities have been neutralized or anywhere
near neutralized? At this point, I think.
Speaker 5 (09:55):
Israel is way on its way to do that because
of NATON In Richmond facility, despite the fact that it
was protected with the eight meter concrete envelope, is destroyed
and other nuclear facilities are destroyed. But if this regime
(10:15):
stays in place, they may rebuild, or it will require
another war. In five or ten years. So the question
I'm asking myself number one, with Trump watching the inflation,
can the Saudis and other Gulf oil producing countries export
(10:36):
oil east I'm sorry, west to the Red Sea so
that the oil supply is not disrupted too much. This
is important for the US that Iran doesn't put mines
in the Strait of Hormuz, through which twenty five to
thirty percent of oil exports is going through. And secondly,
(10:58):
can the regimes survive either giving up its nuclear program
or being bombed as badly as the Israeli seemed to
be doing and still stay in power. And at this
point I'm not sure about either outcome.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Doctor Colin, can you just reiterate what I think I
heard you say, which is you believe that Israel has
destroyed or neutralized their nuclear facilities.
Speaker 5 (11:24):
Indeed, the main enrichment facility was in Natans. Israel is
also destroying or destroyed most of the massive ballistic missile arsenals.
Just the other day we saw that Iran was buying
enough materials and precursors to build ten thousand ballistic missiles
(11:47):
over a period of three years from China. Apparently this
is also a target. It may not be fully destroyed
yet because we're barely twenty four hours into the operation,
but in terms of the success us of taking out
the leadership of the Iranian Air Force, the head of
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders up.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
We're gonna have to leave it there just because of
the time. We really appreciate getting a few minutes of
your time. Doctor Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council,
joining us via zoom from Stockholm.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Inflation expectations coming down, so let's check out with Joan Shue,
Surveys of Consumers, Director at the University of Admission, Joanne
Big snapback in the numbers at Big Reversal.
Speaker 6 (12:46):
It seems like, yes, consumers are feeling a little bit
more settled after the big shock of the April developments
and tariffs, so they do think that the outlook for
the economy has improved. At the same time, we're still
you know, almost twenty p sent below where we were
back in December after sentiments saw a post election bump.
So consumers are still pretty far from where they were
(13:08):
just a few months ago, and they don't think we're
out of the woods yet.
Speaker 4 (13:10):
And joined with respect to all the great work that
you guys do with the events of the past twenty
four hours, particularly with the inflation expectations, I kind of
tend to want to throw these numbers right out the window.
Speaker 7 (13:22):
Well, there's a lot going on in the world right now,
and in terms of how consumers react to global events
in the Middle East, where we can wait until the
final reading for June, but of course things are happening
on a daily basis. Consumers are incorporating this information separate
from the possible disruption to energy prices, from what's going
(13:44):
on overall. Consumers worst fears about what might happen to inflation.
When they saw the development developments in April, they feel
better about that, but they're still bracing for higher inflation
than they were just a few months ago. So consumers
are looking bracing for that.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
And the one year inflation expectation was six point four
percent down. It came in at five point one still
much higher than where we want to see it, where
the FED wants to see it. Joan, thanks so much
for joining us. Joe and Shue, Surveys of Consumers Director
at the University of Michigan.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Let's check in with the story from yesterday, the air
crash in India that claims so many lives, a lot
of issues they're one of the issues is just boeing
the plane, ge the engines. From a business perspective, that's
kind of where a lot of folks are looking at
this state. Sid Phillip joins his deputy team lever for
(14:53):
Global Aviation Zoom from Paris.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
Sid.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
What do we know about the actual pla itself? Maybe
some causes here or is anything been reported?
Speaker 4 (15:06):
So far?
Speaker 8 (15:06):
There hasn't been much in terms of causes. I mean
so far we sort of we understand that investigators are
coming through the wreckage to determine really what caused that
crash and it killed all but one person on board,
so two hundred and forty one.
Speaker 4 (15:20):
People in fact that somebody wanted away from that. It's
absolutely a mirror ple.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
I can't wait to see the reporting on that. So
it is has Boeing said anything? What's Boeing said?
Speaker 8 (15:29):
Since Boeing is actually sort of it hasn't said a lot.
It's Boeing is basically deferring to the regulators and investigators
on this matter. So they're sort of putting it onto
investigators saying they're not going to comment and they're not
going to say anything about this accident. They're going to
help with the investigation, but they aren't going to comment,
and they're going to let that the investigators sort of
work through the whatever evidence that they can find and
(15:52):
whatever sort of the black boxes and what they decode
from those black boxes before they really make a determination
and say anything on the matter.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
It also gets to the investigation. But you know more
than us about that particular airport in question. I understand
that's known for a lot of bird strikes. Do I
have that right?
Speaker 8 (16:12):
There have been some bus strikes. I mean again, at
this point, it's a bit early to be seeing what
the matter is. I mean At the moment, the accident's
being investigated by the Air Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau of
India and they also have investigators from the UK and
the US who are assisting with the probe, and so
they're looking at multiple angles in this investigation. And I
(16:33):
think the DGCA, which is India's aviation regulator, also ordered
some maintenance checks on all of Air India's Boeing sevent
eighty seven's, including they asking them to check on fuel systems,
cabinet engine controlled hydraulics, just to rule out what really
caused this incident, he said.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Just thinking about Boeing it it seemed like just recently,
maybe the last six to nine months, Boeing was putting
behind it a lot of the safety issue that have
plagued it for the last several years of seven three
seven macs and so on, and then this happened. What's
the feeling within Boeing about kind of where they are
in terms of getting back some of their engineering chops,
(17:13):
their safety chops, getting production levels backed up to where
they need need to be. What's what do you think
the view is from Boeing.
Speaker 8 (17:21):
So Boeing, I mean Boeing obviously has been working on
improving their quality systems. They have a new CEO, Kerry Outberg,
who is sitting there who's basically been working on improving
quality and making sure that the company can actually ramp
up production and ramp up safely. And so that's what
they've been ramping up. And they've sort of just reached
a key milestone on the seven three seven Max, which
(17:43):
is separate from the jet that actually crashed in India,
and that jet is the one that had those two
fatal crashes in twenty eighteen and nineteen and also the
door plug falling off last year, and so they've they've
ramped up production on that. They've sort of got to
the FA mandated level of thirty eight a month, and
so they are in the process of sort of showing
up their company, showing up their balance sheet. And this
(18:04):
will be a sort of blow to that effort, and
this will sort of force Kelly Ottberg and new CEO
to sort of again go back into crisis mode. And
I mean, he isn't going to be attending the Paris
Ashore which starts next week. He's decided to skip that
along with Stephanie Pop who leads a commercial commercial unit.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Yeah, I was kind of curious how that proceeds. Arguably
the Paris Era show, as we that's the biggest event
on the aviation calendar, isn't it is?
Speaker 8 (18:32):
It is the biggest aviation event typically where airlines splash
out on big orders. There's lots. It's very celebratory. That's
where alines sort of talk about their future fleet plans
and aircraft manufacturers including Airbus and Boeing show off what
their latest products are and all the innovations and developments
that they have.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
So where is Boeing in terms of like a lot
of folks tell me, Hey, if you're looking at Boeing,
the only thing you'd really need to focus on is
how many seven thirty events are they getting off the
line every month? Where are we right now and where
do they want to go?
Speaker 8 (19:06):
At the moment, we're close to the FA mandated limit
of thirty eight a month, and they have talked about
getting beyond that to about fifty a month, but that
is long term, it's not yet, it's not yet, not
a near term consideration. But that's basically where they I
mean air buses, which is Boeing's direct rival, makes about
sixty eighty twenty one s, which compete with the seven
(19:29):
three seven MAXs. They make about sixty a month and
they have an ambition of reaching seventy five a month
by twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Tell us about GE, the engines in question, and does
Boeing Is GE just one of the many suppliers of
engines for Boeing.
Speaker 8 (19:48):
No, so, G is one of the main suppliers of
engines for Boeing, I mean on the seven three seven Max.
GE is one half of a joint venture that makes
the exclusive engines for the seven three seven Max. And
they also provide all the engines on the CET Triple
seven X, which is the upcoming model, and they're one
of two engine options on the seven eighty seven. So
they are a very very important supplier in terms of
(20:10):
the aviation ecosystem. They're very important supplier to Boeing. And
I mean, this engine has has been in service for
over a decade now, and so this isn't a new engine,
It isn't an engine that has any particular issues, so
it is I mean, I'm sure that she is also
contributing to the investigation.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
All right, So thanks so much for joining us at
phill Up, Bloomberg Deputy team leader for Global Aviation.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
John Talker sitting in for Alex steel On. Paul Swiney're
live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio in New
York City. Were streaming live on YouTube as well. What
we've been trying to do all day today, starting at
seven am with Tom Keen and surveillance, is just to
try to find some guests here who are experienced and
educated in all things in the complexities of the Middle
East and help us the audience to get some context
(00:45):
about what's happening in the Middle Eastern. Next guest as
certainly one of those folks, Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joining us from Washington,
DC via zoom Here. Aaron, We've had presidents and President's
Trump urging Israel to have restraint, particularly as it relates
(01:05):
to Iran. But I guess today Iran said, Hey, the
risks to us are just too high. Iran is making
too much progress on the nuclear front. We had to act.
What kind of contexts? How do you view what happened
last night?
Speaker 3 (01:21):
It's a long movie, guys, and thanks for having me.
First of all, I think the Israeli's acted in large
part because you have an his early prime minister who
is now very risk ready his lifelong mission is to
Freezer from the shadow of an Irani and bomb. And
the Israeli's not just the prime minister, get behind this
idea of the Began doctrine. You know that in the
(01:41):
summer of nineteen eighty one, then Israeli Prime Minister of
Monock and Began went after the Assira reactor in Iraq
and destroyed it. The Americans destroyed the reactor again, by
the way, during their campaigns in Iraq, just doing the
Reagan administration, and Reagan's not very happy with the Israeli decisions.
He later came to regret it, though, and agreed with
(02:03):
Began that getting rid of the reactor was a wise move.
In this case, I think the first Democratic and Republican
president ever did not communicate in an unmistakable way to
the Prime Minister of Israel, and they talked on Thursday.
We're not sure what the conversation was before these strikes tomorrow,
(02:24):
last night, and this morning. Let's put this way, Donald
Trump did not say no. Had he wanted to say no,
he could have brought to bear an enormous amount of
leverage and pressure to dissuade the Israelies from not striking.
So I don't think that conversation was necessary. He may
(02:46):
have had doubts, but I think in the end he's
simply enabled to exceed an acquiesced in the Prime Minister's decision.
And remember, the negotiations were supposed to zoom on Sunday
in Oman, and yet the administration kept saying right up
to the end. Five hours before the strikes, the President
(03:09):
tweeted on true Social that he hoped there would be
a diplomatic ending to this. So the administration cooperated with
this ruse. And right now we are waiting for the
Iranian response. It could be weeks before it occurs. They're
clearly knocked off balance. Much of their general staff has
(03:31):
been eliminated, former head of the Iran Iranian Revolutionary Guard eliminated,
Chief of staff for the Iranian military eliminating the Israelis.
They are still ongoing now, striking ballistic missile sites you
wa East sites, drone sites in effort to repress and
suppress whatever remains of Iran's air defense. There will be
(03:53):
an Iranian response. It may be asymmetrical, using terror against
Israeli or Jewish targets. There's a history there. It could
be a while. And then you raised the question, or
I'd raise it, what are the Iranians going to respond to? Well,
they confine their strikes to the United Two, I'm sorry,
(04:13):
to Israel proper. Or are they going to go after
American assets in the Gulf, or in Iraq, or in
Syria or oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. I would bet,
given how weak and vulnerable the Iranians are, they'd probably,
at least at this stage confine their response to Israel.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
A secretary at Rubio said this was a unilateral action.
Then we got a tweet or something on social media
from the President that said, among other things, the next
attack being planned will be quote even more brutal and
begs the question for me, what is US foreign policy
with respect to this?
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Well, I think the President had made a judgment he
obviously argued the Iranian negotiations were not producing. He gave
them two months to reach an agreement, which is an
unrealistic deadline. To be sure, that deadline was reached June eleven,
and that Thursday overnight, Thursday Friday morning, they attack. So no,
(05:16):
I think the administration rode the tiger of what the
Israelis now have in this region, which is an escalation dominance.
They've essentially hollowed out Hamasa as a military organization. They've
basically decimated his Bullah, as well as the statement saying
remarkably they would not initiate any activity in response to
(05:37):
what the Israelis have done. So I think that right
now the NFC presidents chairing an NFSC meeting, i'd say
the priorities you asked me what US foreign policy will
be in this case, I think there are three or
four issues. Number One, protect Americans. Make sure that the
sites that are vulnerable are as hardened as they could be.
Number Two, prepare for a significant defense. Assistance of Israel
(06:02):
helped the Israelis multi layer their own defenses, as the
Biden administration did in response to the Iranian attacks last year.
In April October. That's number two, Number three Coordinate Regional
defense unnamed golf countries in April and October helped both
intelligence wise and participation in an Aaron missile defense shield
(06:24):
remarkably supporting Israel in the face of that Iranian attack.
Jordan shot down Jernes in April, last April and October,
and US deployed F fifteen specially equipped with interceptors to
protect and help the Jordans airspace. The final piece of
what policy would be, are they looking for a way
(06:45):
to de escalate. Will they try and push a doubt
for something in the Security Council, but some sort of
initiative that would try to get the Iranians back to
the negotiating table. That's going to be a very heavy lift, though, Guy,
and the Iranians invested five trillion dollars over time in
this nuclear program. They are humiliated. They are embarrassed to
(07:08):
the extreme. So I think we're talking about we're beginning
to a very long and very difficult Israeli Iranian confrontation.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Aaron, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate
getting a few minutes of your time, Aaron. David Miller,
he's a Senior Fellow at the carnegieen Dowment for International
Piece in Washington, TC, joining us of via zoom.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Let's get back to the geopolitical topic of the day,
Israel and Iren. Ariel Cohen joins his senior fellow at
the Atlanta Council, joining us from Stockholm, Sweden of via zoom. Ariel,
can you put into context what has happened over the
last twenty four hours? What is israel strategy? Where does
a rain go from here?
Speaker 5 (08:05):
First of all, this was in the works for probably
twenty years. Iran was giving every opportunity to walk away
from its nuclear weapons program. First with a jcpoa planned
by the Obama administration, it didn't work. Instead of yes
they could enrich for the domestic power production three and
(08:31):
a half percent enriched uranium, they escalated twenty percent and more.
Now they were enriching it sixty to eighty percent, which
the only application is weapons. They kept accelerating development of
their ballistic missiles, and they were funding proxies from the
Red Sea to the Mediterranean, from the Hufis to Ribala,
(08:54):
to Irate to Iraqi Typeisbala. So they were building or
try to build a Middle Eastern empire. And it all
came down rushing, and Trump gave him six sixty days
to agree to keep their internal domestic power production through
(09:16):
nuclear reactors, but to shut down the Richmond They refused.
Every Friday, they chanted death to America, death to Israel.
They tried to assassinate Tromp on American soil. So when
people are telling me, now we don't care about Iran,
nobody talks about Iran like this, bright lights, Marjorie tailor, Marjorie.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
I just want to quickly ask, do we know if
the the Iranian nuclear capabilities have been neutralized or anywhere
near neutralized? At this point, I think.
Speaker 5 (09:55):
Israel is way on its way to do that because
of NATON In Richmond facility, despite the fact that it
was protected with the eight meter concrete envelope, is destroyed
and other nuclear facilities are destroyed. But if this regime
(10:15):
stays in place, they may rebuild, or it will require
another war. In five or ten years. So the question
I'm asking myself number one, with Trump watching the inflation,
can the Saudis and other Gulf oil producing countries export
(10:36):
oil east I'm sorry, west to the Red Sea so
that the oil supply is not disrupted too much. This
is important for the US that Iran doesn't put mines
in the Strait of Hormuz, through which twenty five to
thirty percent of oil exports is going through. And secondly,
(10:58):
can the regimes survive either giving up its nuclear program
or being bombed as badly as the Israeli seemed to
be doing and still stay in power. And at this
point I'm not sure about either outcome.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Doctor Colin, can you just reiterate what I think I
heard you say, which is you believe that Israel has
destroyed or neutralized their nuclear facilities.
Speaker 5 (11:24):
Indeed, the main enrichment facility was in Natans. Israel is
also destroying or destroyed most of the massive ballistic missile arsenals.
Just the other day we saw that Iran was buying
enough materials and precursors to build ten thousand ballistic missiles
(11:47):
over a period of three years from China. Apparently this
is also a target. It may not be fully destroyed
yet because we're barely twenty four hours into the operation,
but in terms of the success us of taking out
the leadership of the Iranian Air Force, the head of
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders up.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
We're gonna have to leave it there just because of
the time. We really appreciate getting a few minutes of
your time. Doctor Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council,
joining us via zoom from Stockholm.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Inflation expectations coming down, so let's check out with Joan Shue,
Surveys of Consumers, Director at the University of Admission, Joanne
Big snapback in the numbers at Big Reversal.
Speaker 6 (12:46):
It seems like, yes, consumers are feeling a little bit
more settled after the big shock of the April developments
and tariffs, so they do think that the outlook for
the economy has improved. At the same time, we're still
you know, almost twenty p sent below where we were
back in December after sentiments saw a post election bump.
So consumers are still pretty far from where they were
(13:08):
just a few months ago, and they don't think we're
out of the woods yet.
Speaker 4 (13:10):
And joined with respect to all the great work that
you guys do with the events of the past twenty
four hours, particularly with the inflation expectations, I kind of
tend to want to throw these numbers right out the window.
Speaker 7 (13:22):
Well, there's a lot going on in the world right now,
and in terms of how consumers react to global events
in the Middle East, where we can wait until the
final reading for June, but of course things are happening
on a daily basis. Consumers are incorporating this information separate
from the possible disruption to energy prices, from what's going
(13:44):
on overall. Consumers worst fears about what might happen to inflation.
When they saw the development developments in April, they feel
better about that, but they're still bracing for higher inflation
than they were just a few months ago. So consumers
are looking bracing for that.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
And the one year inflation expectation was six point four
percent down. It came in at five point one still
much higher than where we want to see it, where
the FED wants to see it. Joan, thanks so much
for joining us. Joe and Shue, Surveys of Consumers Director
at the University of Michigan.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Let's check in with the story from yesterday, the air
crash in India that claims so many lives, a lot
of issues they're one of the issues is just boeing
the plane, ge the engines. From a business perspective, that's
kind of where a lot of folks are looking at
this state. Sid Phillip joins his deputy team lever for
(14:53):
Global Aviation Zoom from Paris.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
Sid.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
What do we know about the actual pla itself? Maybe
some causes here or is anything been reported?
Speaker 4 (15:06):
So far?
Speaker 8 (15:06):
There hasn't been much in terms of causes. I mean
so far we sort of we understand that investigators are
coming through the wreckage to determine really what caused that
crash and it killed all but one person on board,
so two hundred and forty one.
Speaker 4 (15:20):
People in fact that somebody wanted away from that. It's
absolutely a mirror ple.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
I can't wait to see the reporting on that. So
it is has Boeing said anything? What's Boeing said?
Speaker 8 (15:29):
Since Boeing is actually sort of it hasn't said a lot.
It's Boeing is basically deferring to the regulators and investigators
on this matter. So they're sort of putting it onto
investigators saying they're not going to comment and they're not
going to say anything about this accident. They're going to
help with the investigation, but they aren't going to comment,
and they're going to let that the investigators sort of
work through the whatever evidence that they can find and
(15:52):
whatever sort of the black boxes and what they decode
from those black boxes before they really make a determination
and say anything on the matter.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
It also gets to the investigation. But you know more
than us about that particular airport in question. I understand
that's known for a lot of bird strikes. Do I
have that right?
Speaker 8 (16:12):
There have been some bus strikes. I mean again, at
this point, it's a bit early to be seeing what
the matter is. I mean At the moment, the accident's
being investigated by the Air Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau of
India and they also have investigators from the UK and
the US who are assisting with the probe, and so
they're looking at multiple angles in this investigation. And I
(16:33):
think the DGCA, which is India's aviation regulator, also ordered
some maintenance checks on all of Air India's Boeing sevent
eighty seven's, including they asking them to check on fuel systems,
cabinet engine controlled hydraulics, just to rule out what really
caused this incident, he said.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Just thinking about Boeing it it seemed like just recently,
maybe the last six to nine months, Boeing was putting
behind it a lot of the safety issue that have
plagued it for the last several years of seven three
seven macs and so on, and then this happened. What's
the feeling within Boeing about kind of where they are
in terms of getting back some of their engineering chops,
(17:13):
their safety chops, getting production levels backed up to where
they need need to be. What's what do you think
the view is from Boeing.
Speaker 8 (17:21):
So Boeing, I mean Boeing obviously has been working on
improving their quality systems. They have a new CEO, Kerry Outberg,
who is sitting there who's basically been working on improving
quality and making sure that the company can actually ramp
up production and ramp up safely. And so that's what
they've been ramping up. And they've sort of just reached
a key milestone on the seven three seven Max, which
(17:43):
is separate from the jet that actually crashed in India,
and that jet is the one that had those two
fatal crashes in twenty eighteen and nineteen and also the
door plug falling off last year, and so they've they've
ramped up production on that. They've sort of got to
the FA mandated level of thirty eight a month, and
so they are in the process of sort of showing
up their company, showing up their balance sheet. And this
(18:04):
will be a sort of blow to that effort, and
this will sort of force Kelly Ottberg and new CEO
to sort of again go back into crisis mode. And
I mean, he isn't going to be attending the Paris
Ashore which starts next week. He's decided to skip that
along with Stephanie Pop who leads a commercial commercial unit.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Yeah, I was kind of curious how that proceeds. Arguably
the Paris Era show, as we that's the biggest event
on the aviation calendar, isn't it is?
Speaker 8 (18:32):
It is the biggest aviation event typically where airlines splash
out on big orders. There's lots. It's very celebratory. That's
where alines sort of talk about their future fleet plans
and aircraft manufacturers including Airbus and Boeing show off what
their latest products are and all the innovations and developments
that they have.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
So where is Boeing in terms of like a lot
of folks tell me, Hey, if you're looking at Boeing,
the only thing you'd really need to focus on is
how many seven thirty events are they getting off the
line every month? Where are we right now and where
do they want to go?
Speaker 8 (19:06):
At the moment, we're close to the FA mandated limit
of thirty eight a month, and they have talked about
getting beyond that to about fifty a month, but that
is long term, it's not yet, it's not yet, not
a near term consideration. But that's basically where they I
mean air buses, which is Boeing's direct rival, makes about
sixty eighty twenty one s, which compete with the seven
(19:29):
three seven MAXs. They make about sixty a month and
they have an ambition of reaching seventy five a month
by twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Tell us about GE, the engines in question, and does
Boeing Is GE just one of the many suppliers of
engines for Boeing.
Speaker 8 (19:48):
No, so, G is one of the main suppliers of
engines for Boeing, I mean on the seven three seven Max.
GE is one half of a joint venture that makes
the exclusive engines for the seven three seven Max. And
they also provide all the engines on the CET Triple
seven X, which is the upcoming model, and they're one
of two engine options on the seven eighty seven. So
they are a very very important supplier in terms of
(20:10):
the aviation ecosystem. They're very important supplier to Boeing. And
I mean, this engine has has been in service for
over a decade now, and so this isn't a new engine,
It isn't an engine that has any particular issues, so
it is I mean, I'm sure that she is also
contributing to the investigation.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
All right, So thanks so much for joining us at
phill Up, Bloomberg Deputy team leader for Global Aviation.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
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